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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: The federal government backflips on superannuation, watering down plans to

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Speaker 1: increase taxes on balances above three million dollars, her Mass

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Speaker 1: releases Israeli hostages in the first step of the Middle

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Speaker 1: East peace Plan. And A and Z's new boss outlines

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Speaker 1: big changes to the bank strategy, winning plaudits from investors.

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Speaker 1: Class penfolds owner Treasury Wine estates struggles to sell into China,

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Speaker 1: and Strava beats all comers in the fitness app race.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, the fourteenth of October twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson, and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael. The Fitness one is for you.

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Speaker 1: I thought it would have been for you because you

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Speaker 1: are a notorious runner.

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Speaker 2: Notorious I think Adam Laney is a notorious runner more

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Speaker 2: the occasional runner is how I know.

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Speaker 1: I shouldn't toss around terms like notorious and infamous without

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Speaker 1: actually having grounds to do. So let's get onto the

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Speaker 1: show today, Sean. We've got some big stories to get through.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning, though the federal government has

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Speaker 1: made major concessions aka backflip. So it's landmark policy to

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Speaker 1: increase taxation on superannuation balances above three million dollars, including

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Speaker 1: indexing the threshold, and importantly, as you pointed out even

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Speaker 1: last week, sparing unrealized gains from the new levy.

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Speaker 2: Yep, I would call this a backflip with Pike. The changes,

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Speaker 2: which follow an intervention from Prime minis that Anthony Albanezi,

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Speaker 2: also include a new ten million dollar balance threshold, above

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Speaker 2: which an extra twenty five percentage points of earning the

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Speaker 2: tax will apply. What that means is earnings on balances

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Speaker 2: between three million dollars and ten million dollars. About ninety

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Speaker 2: thousand people have that. I'll be taxed thirty percent. Anything

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Speaker 2: over that will effect. There's about eighty thousand people who

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Speaker 2: have got more than ten million dollars in their super ballance. Well,

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Speaker 2: they'll be hit with a forty percent tax rate. Federal

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Speaker 2: treasure Jim Chalmers announced the changes yesterday and said the

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Speaker 2: new tax regime will begin later than expected, on July

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Speaker 2: one next year. That will also be a superannuation top

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Speaker 2: up for low income earners on July one, twenty twenty seven. Now,

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Speaker 2: that's mainly due to correct a discrepancy caused by the

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Speaker 2: top up income tax cuts. So we've got the income

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Speaker 2: tax cuts, but what that meant was about one point

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Speaker 2: three million low paid workers earning between thirty seven thousand

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Speaker 2: and forty five thousand would have paid a higher rate

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Speaker 2: of tax on their SUPER than on their income. So

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Speaker 2: I'm going to get eight hundred and ten dollars top up.

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Speaker 2: Low income earners who make less than thirty seven thousand

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Speaker 2: dollars the same issue for them. Generally, they shouldn't be well,

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Speaker 2: They certainly shouldn't be paying more tax on their super

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Speaker 2: than their income tax, so they're going to get a

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Speaker 2: top up of five hundred dollars. The total costs of

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Speaker 2: the changes four point two billion dollars over the next

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Speaker 2: four years and lost earnings.

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Speaker 1: I don't know what to make of this because it

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Speaker 1: is quite the backflip, as we discussed from the government,

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Speaker 1: because the government went to the last election sticking to

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Speaker 1: this policy particularly and what made that interesting was farmers,

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Speaker 1: small businesses, everyone complaining about unrealized gains being taxed. So

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Speaker 1: was it this kind of recent intervention from the Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister's office that has swayed the treasurer because he was

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Speaker 1: so set on this thing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, reading between the lines, it seems that way.

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Speaker 2: Even though Jim Tarmon's rejected the nation yesterday, it was

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Speaker 2: a pragmatic decision. I've no idea why they didn't do

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Speaker 2: this twelve months ago. To be perfectly honest, everyone welcomed it, yes,

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Speaker 2: the industry welcomed. The Greens didn't welcome it. The Treasury

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Speaker 2: spokesman for the Greens, Nick mc kim, said the wealthy

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Speaker 2: had been let off the hook. But you know, I

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Speaker 2: mean really, and.

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Speaker 1: The Greens don't welcome a lot of things, do they?

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Speaker 2: Nah? No, I mean they could have made the changes

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Speaker 2: as they were because they had the Green support in

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Speaker 2: the Senate. Yeah, but obviously industry and the thing about

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Speaker 2: this which I just find confusing, they're pragmatic changes. Everyone

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Speaker 2: from Paul Keating through to industry super funds they all said, yep,

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Speaker 2: just makes sense in the DIY sector delighted, all that

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Speaker 2: sort of stuff. But I just don't understand why they

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Speaker 2: died in the ditch over it previously and now the

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Speaker 2: backfitt when it's just sensible policy and it.

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Speaker 1: Also allows everyone to move on right now rather than

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Speaker 1: just being we've been bogged down in this discussion now

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Speaker 1: for so long, and it's consumed a great deal of

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Speaker 1: oxygen and time and attention from everyone. Now it's done

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Speaker 1: as you say, it should have been done ages ago,

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Speaker 1: and then we could move on and actually got onto

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Speaker 1: other things. Right, yep, absolutely, just before we leave Canberra though.

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Speaker 1: At SEAN, the Australian Federal Police is investigating whether Lydia

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Speaker 1: Thorpe's comments that she would burn down Parliament House whether

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Speaker 1: that broke any laws.

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Speaker 2: Yesterday, the Independent Senator said she didn't mean the comments literally.

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Speaker 2: She made them at a pro Palestinian rally on Sunday.

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Speaker 2: She's been widely condemned by the Government, National Party and

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Speaker 2: plenty of others.

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Speaker 1: Now Sean turning to an overseas sorry, this is one

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Speaker 1: that has been everywhere. Over the last twenty four hours.

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Speaker 1: Israeli hostages held captive by Hamas for two years have

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Speaker 1: been released to cheers, tears, enormous relief for waiting families.

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Speaker 2: That's right. Hamas earlier in the day had published a

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Speaker 2: list of twenty names of the people to be released

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Speaker 2: that matched the list of hostages believed to be alive.

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Speaker 2: Hammas also published a list of more than nineteen hundred

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Speaker 2: Palestinian prisoners, it said would be released as part of

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Speaker 2: the ceasefire agreement. It began yesterday afternoon Australian time, at

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Speaker 2: about five pm. You know, I mean, it's great scenes

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Speaker 2: that the emotion coming through the exchange is the first

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Speaker 2: stage of a plan put forward by Donald Trump, though

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Speaker 2: Israel and Hamas have it to agree to the second

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Speaker 2: phase of the plan, which is designed to bring about

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Speaker 2: a permanent end to the fighting. It calls for the

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Speaker 2: disarmament of Hamas, the staggered withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza,

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Speaker 2: and the deployment of international stabilization forces in the Strip.

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Speaker 2: US President Donald Trump will make a brief visit to

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Speaker 2: the region and then take part in a peace summit

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Speaker 2: in Egypt. Others. There will be leaders from the UK, France, Turkey, Spain,

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Speaker 2: EU UN officials.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's take a quick look at local markets.

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Speaker 1: How did things go yesterday?

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Speaker 2: The s and PASX two hundred fell nearly one percent

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Speaker 2: to eighty eight hundred and eighty three points, and a

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Speaker 2: pretty rough day for the markets. The tech sector led

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Speaker 2: the slide, with sharp falls in weistech Live three sixty,

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Speaker 2: computer share Energy also weighed despite a rally in oil

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Speaker 2: prices through The big four banks were lower commoneth Bank

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Speaker 2: with down nearly two percent. Commodity stocks bucked the trend, though,

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Speaker 2: as gold hit another new high this time of and

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Speaker 2: I'm talking US dollars here, four thousand and fifty nine

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Speaker 2: dollars and thirty cents. Don't forget the thirty cents. Regis Resources, Newmont,

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Speaker 2: and Evolution Mining all surged. Same deal with silver. It's

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Speaker 2: trading near record levels and silver miners did well. Some

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Speaker 2: silver jump twenty percent yesterday. Now, there was a bit

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Speaker 2: of news on that one. It's kind of interesting. It

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Speaker 2: was asked to provide an update on its Maverick Springs

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Speaker 2: investments in the United States ahead of the meeting between

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Speaker 2: Trump and Prime Minister Anthony Albernizi. So you know, when

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Speaker 2: the government comes and says, hey, can you provide an

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Speaker 2: update on your Maverick Springs investments in the US because

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Speaker 2: that might be something that Donald Trump and Anthony Alberanezi

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Speaker 2: want to talk about. Well, good kick along for the

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Speaker 2: share price, Michael, very good kicklong.

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Speaker 1: Have you ever heard a more American name though than

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Speaker 1: Maverick Springs. It's great for a.

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Speaker 2: Silver process silver mind. Yeah, it's great, just quickly. Rare

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Speaker 2: Earth's mind has also extended gains after Trump revived the

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Speaker 2: trade war against Beijing. Shares in Linus broke a fourteen

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Speaker 2: year high and since July have more than doubled.

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Speaker 1: Okay, plenty still to come. We'll be back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean

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Speaker 1: A and Zed's share price jumped three point three percent yesterday,

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Speaker 1: very much going against the trend. After a new CEO,

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Speaker 1: Nuno Mattos, laid out aggressive targets to reduce costs and

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Speaker 1: really lift performance at the bank.

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Speaker 2: In fact, the bank share price at a ten year high.

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Speaker 2: Mattos said he'll challenge staff and force accountability and help

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Speaker 2: win back market share. He puts some hard numbers on

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Speaker 2: his strategy, which is always good. He wants to reduce

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Speaker 2: amz's cost to income ratio, which is effectively a measure

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Speaker 2: of efficiency and profitability, from about fifty two percent now

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Speaker 2: to forty percent or mid forty percent, sorry, not forty percent,

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Speaker 2: mid forty percent by twenty twenty eight. That's significant because

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Speaker 2: mid forty percent is basically best of breed. It's a

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Speaker 2: level Commonwealth bank is that So what he's saying is

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Speaker 2: we want to get to that Commonwealth Bank level. When

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Speaker 2: it comes to cost to income ratios, how do.

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Speaker 1: They do that?

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Speaker 2: Cut headcount? That's a bit City Lovan. They've already now

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Speaker 2: the three thirty five hundred staff will lose their jobs.

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Speaker 2: And if you think of cost to income, a big

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Speaker 2: cost is staff. So you get that lower that helps.

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Speaker 2: Matos said he had structured his twenty thirty plan frames

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Speaker 2: at around four strategic pillars customer first, simplicity, resilience, and

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Speaker 2: delivering value. As part of focusing on customer needs, Mattos

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Speaker 2: said he'll boost mortgage lenders in its branches by up

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Speaker 2: to fifty percent, hire more business and private bankers to

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Speaker 2: improved service. I think we heard that from Westpac, didn't

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Speaker 2: we a few weeks we did, Yes, very very It's

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Speaker 2: interesting these banks so come off bank definitely, Westpac definitely,

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Speaker 2: a and Zed definitely. They really are sort of pushing

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Speaker 2: their own channels, their own digital channels. They don't want

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Speaker 2: to rely on mortgage brokers as much as they do. Mean,

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Speaker 2: mortgage brokers write seventy five percent of home loans. Yet

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Speaker 2: we've heard from three of the four majors that they

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Speaker 2: actually want to come off the mortgage broker teat and

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Speaker 2: do it themselves. Interesting, they're all going the same.

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Speaker 1: Way, alarmingly. The only thing I think I'm left with

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Speaker 1: as a lasting image, Sean, is the idea.

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Speaker 2: Of the mortgage breaker teat, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: I'd not leave that one there. Penfolds own a Treasury

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Speaker 1: Winer States share price, how about this? Tumbled fifteen percent yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Shoker over Day is off more than fifty percent now

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Speaker 1: over the past year after it pulled its full year

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Speaker 1: profit guidance because of weaker than expected trading in China

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Speaker 1: for its flagship brand and also trouble with the distributor

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Speaker 1: handover in the United States.

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Speaker 2: So yesterday we spoke about how well Penfolds sales are

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Speaker 2: doing in Australia. Absolute opposite side, opposite story offshore with

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Speaker 2: a new CEO due to start in a fortnite. Treasury,

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Speaker 2: in a statement to the A six said sales China

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Speaker 2: were lower than expected. It also temporarily halted its two

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Speaker 2: hundred million dollars share buyback and dropped its previous earnings

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Speaker 2: guidance for Penfolds. It's a company in pain at the moment.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly, is now Two separate federal court challenges have

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Speaker 1: been launched against the Albanese government's decision to extend the

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Speaker 1: life of Woodside's major Northwest Shelf gas project. This was

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Speaker 1: probably always going to.

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Speaker 2: Happen, right yeah. Friends of Australian rock Art in the

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Speaker 2: Australian Conservation Foundation will both challenge the government's move to

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Speaker 2: allow the gas processing facility to keep operating until twenty seventy.

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Speaker 2: It's the latest in the string of legal challenges to

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Speaker 2: the West Australian facility, which opponents warn will contribute to

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Speaker 2: the degradation of precious indigenous rock art and release massive

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Speaker 2: amounts of air pollution.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news, now, US banks Sean are set

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Speaker 1: for an unprecedented easing of capital rules, which new research

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Speaker 1: suggests could unlock two point six trillion dollars in lending

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Speaker 1: capacity and increase pressure on regulators elsewhere, including Australia. Really

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Speaker 1: to follow.

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Speaker 2: Suit, Okay, pointy headed, but relevant. Stay with me on

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Speaker 2: this one, Michael, and important.

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Speaker 1: I love the draft to give a warning that this

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Speaker 1: one's going to get a bit technical, but no, thank you,

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Speaker 1: thank you.

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Speaker 2: The White House has said it would dilute rules governing

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Speaker 2: US banks effectively meaning they'll have more money and ability

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Speaker 2: to lend. So sincetall Trump's return to the White House,

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Speaker 2: US authorities have embraced a much more bank friendly approach,

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Speaker 2: committing to loosen many of the rules that forced banks

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Speaker 2: to increase their loss absorbing capital buffers after the GFC

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Speaker 2: back in two thousand and eight. Now to understand this, Michael,

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Speaker 2: think about the Australian banks and the fact that the

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Speaker 2: local regulator APRA forces them to judge home loans on

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Speaker 2: whether or borrow or campaigning intestrate three percent above the

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Speaker 2: current rate. And we've talked a lot about that, and

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Speaker 2: as interest rates have moved up, that three percent has remained.

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Speaker 2: So you know people can't borrow money necessarily. Well that's

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Speaker 2: the sort of rule that would be dropped in the US.

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Speaker 2: So that's what we're talking about, okay. And so if

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Speaker 2: you drop those rules, the banks, not only do they

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Speaker 2: have to put set less money aside, they have actually

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Speaker 2: got the ability to give loans to people that they

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Speaker 2: think are worth it.

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Speaker 1: So with me, would some of these changes then potentially

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Speaker 1: also be you know how a lot of the increased

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Speaker 1: restrictions were what then led to the rise of private

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Speaker 1: credit as well. Could reducing restrictions on lending rules for

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Speaker 1: banks perhaps have an impact then on the growth of

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Speaker 1: the private credit space.

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Speaker 2: Michael, what an excellent question. You know. It's like when

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Speaker 2: you ask chat GPT something they say, well, very good question.

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Speaker 2: You feel good about yourself, same deal. That is a

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Speaker 2: cracking question because it means that banks will become more

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Speaker 2: competitive against private credit. Excellent, well done. What it will

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Speaker 2: do is that these big Wall Street banks, it will

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Speaker 2: sort of reinforce their dominant position I think, and you

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Speaker 2: know when it comes to stuff like AI and data

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Speaker 2: centers where there's masses of money needed, it's likely that

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Speaker 2: they'll become much more competitive in that area and more

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Speaker 2: competitive against the private credit guys too.

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Speaker 1: Okay, all right, finally, Sean, we need to talk about running.

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Speaker 1: A boom in running spurred on by covid and gen

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Speaker 1: Z's and gen X's as well. Everyone really everyone wanting

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Speaker 1: a healthier lifestyle means exercise app Strava is actually looking

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Speaker 1: to list on Wall Street.

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Speaker 2: So the app, launched in two thousand and nine, currently

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Speaker 2: valued at two point two billion US, has grown really rapidly,

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Speaker 2: particularly since the pandemic, when people started combining social networking

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Speaker 2: with fitness. So I don't know whether you use the app,

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Speaker 2: but Strava allows you to record and then share workouts,

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Speaker 2: give cutos to friends. It's kind of like hitting your

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Speaker 2: Facebook like button. I suppose compare performances with ps and

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Speaker 2: elite athletes. I compare my performance with my son Charlie,

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Speaker 2: and it's embarrassing.

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Speaker 1: So you're you're on the app.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, it's great. Fantastics the exercise track I had

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Speaker 2: an average of fifty million monthly active uses in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty five, close to double that of its closest rival,

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Speaker 2: gar and Connect. That's according to reporting in the ft

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Speaker 2: Are you a Walker? Because what really came out of this,

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Speaker 2: All Trails is an app and it is really good.

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Speaker 2: As you know, we've spent a lot of time overseas recently,

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Speaker 2: and All Trails is this app. No matter where you

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Speaker 2: are in the world, it gives you the walks that

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Speaker 2: are around the place. I mean, really much more popular

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Speaker 2: than Nike or add Dassler, any of those ones. So

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Speaker 2: it's yes, driva garment than All Trails. If you're in

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Speaker 2: a walking and you haven't got All Trails, get all Trails.

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Speaker 1: I digress I was walking the other day, Sean. Apparently

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Speaker 1: I was walking so slowly that my watch actually said

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Speaker 1: it looks like you've stopped your workout. I'm still going

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Speaker 1: thanks anyway.

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Speaker 2: Anyway, Strava's looking to list because everyone's running more basically,

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Speaker 2: and it is by far the most popular app there.

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Speaker 1: You go, good one to finish on. Up next, Sean

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Speaker 1: is the Fear and Greed Q and A and Adam

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Speaker 1: Lang today speaking to Gary Koo and Shelley Horton, who

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Speaker 1: are from Class and Mortgage Solutions respectively. This one is

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Speaker 1: really all about property. It is about why Australians love

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Speaker 1: investing in property so much and what self manage super

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Speaker 1: funds need to be aware of before investing in it.

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Speaker 1: It is a really interesting conversation and we've been doing

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Speaker 1: a lot of work with Classic Night. They we were

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Speaker 1: the media partner for Classic Nite twenty twenty five and

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Speaker 1: this is the latest in that series of conversations. It

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Speaker 1: is coming up next in the Fear and Greed playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot com. Today

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Speaker 1: you which is where you sign up for the legendary

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Speaker 1: daily newsletter that if you are not signing up to that. Honestly,

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Speaker 1: I don't know what you're doing. It is free and

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Speaker 1: in your inbox every morning by six am. I'll put

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Speaker 1: a link in today's show notes. Thank you Sean, Thank

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Speaker 1: you Michael. It is Tuesday, the fourteenth of October twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty five. Make sure you're following the podcast and please

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Speaker 1: join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson. And that was Fear and Greed. Have

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Speaker 1: a great day.