WEBVTT - 11 crazy days to the US election

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Friday, October twenty five. Billionaire Richard White has resigned

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<v Speaker 1>from the company that made him one of Australia's richest people.

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<v Speaker 1>He's at the center of a sex scandal and although

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<v Speaker 1>White is not accused of anything illegal, he's taking a

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<v Speaker 1>break and will return as a consultant earning one million

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<v Speaker 1>dollars a year.

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<v Speaker 2>Why have you resigned today, I'm not talking.

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<v Speaker 3>Are you concerned that that more women.

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<v Speaker 4>Are going to come out in slight?

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<v Speaker 1>You can watch that exclusive video by our reporter Leam

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<v Speaker 1>Mendez right now at the Australian dot com dot U.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you believe it? The US election is just eleven

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<v Speaker 1>days away. Kamala Harris has a man problem. Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>has a trust problem. Today we meet the correspondents who'll

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<v Speaker 1>be crisscrossing the States to you the best reporting and

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<v Speaker 1>analysis of this crazy campaign.

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<v Speaker 4>You may need to open the aft an the event

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<v Speaker 4>of an emergencygure.

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<v Speaker 1>This is American Airlines Flight five two seventy nine from Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>DC to Atlanta, Georgia, and on board is our reporter

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<v Speaker 1>Joe Kelly oh.

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<v Speaker 4>Best go ahead and stodos either in the overhead compartment

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<v Speaker 4>or completely underneath sing in front of him. Same for laptops.

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<v Speaker 4>Thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>Joe's recently moved to the States and he's getting his

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<v Speaker 1>head around this vast, messy, brilliant, terrifying democracy. So it

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<v Speaker 1>was nice for Joe to hear a familiar accent from

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<v Speaker 1>the cockpit.

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<v Speaker 5>Weather in the Atlanta area right now, it's a light

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<v Speaker 5>winds out of the west.

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<v Speaker 6>It's a good visibility.

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<v Speaker 4>Cliss Guy's temperature of eighty degrees is please sit back, relax, Joe.

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<v Speaker 6>The flight local book.

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<v Speaker 1>Georgia is a crucial swing state. Donald Trump won it

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty sixteen and Joe Biden took it off him

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty twenty, but only just. Joe's flown to Atlanta

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<v Speaker 1>for a Kamala Harris rally as she attempts to bring

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<v Speaker 1>it all back to Trump's character. Do you think Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump is a fascist?

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<v Speaker 2>Yes?

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<v Speaker 6>I do, Yes, I do. He himself has said he

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<v Speaker 6>would terminate the Constitution of the United States and wants

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<v Speaker 6>to earn your vote. To stand again behind the seal

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<v Speaker 6>of the President of the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>On stage with Harris in Atlanta will be Barack Obama, you.

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<v Speaker 6>Are you running a go?

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<v Speaker 1>A couple of days ago, Obama joined eminem on stage

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<v Speaker 1>in Detroit and wrapped his two thousand and two hit

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<v Speaker 1>Lose Yourself.

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<v Speaker 3>Now, I notice my palms are sweating. Lose Leek, I's

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<v Speaker 3>a heaven, Bama on my sweater, Runner on Spagunna.

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<v Speaker 6>I'm nervous, but I'm a surface. I'm a comb and

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<v Speaker 6>run it.

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<v Speaker 1>The risk of rolling out a political superstar is that

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<v Speaker 1>they upstage the candidate.

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<v Speaker 4>That's problem. I've watched Barack Obama's rally a couple of

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<v Speaker 4>days ago, and the guy's electric. He's completely comfortable, he's

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<v Speaker 4>full of charisma and energy, and he's so persuasive. Barack

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<v Speaker 4>Obama and Bill Clinton are the great persuaders of politics,

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<v Speaker 4>and he looks so natural making all these arguments about

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<v Speaker 4>Donald Trump. What's Donald Trump's plan for healthcare? Well, he

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<v Speaker 4>has for concept of a plan.

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<v Speaker 3>Now I want you all to think about this. Let's

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<v Speaker 3>say your boss gives you an assignment, says, look, I

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<v Speaker 3>need it by Friday. So Friday rolls around. Your boss

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<v Speaker 3>says did you finish that project? And you said, well,

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<v Speaker 3>actually I haven't started, but I do have a concept

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<v Speaker 3>of a plan.

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<v Speaker 4>Obviously, Kammler is trying to use him to the best

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<v Speaker 4>of her ability to help her get over the line

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<v Speaker 4>and deploy him as a political weapon. But I think

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<v Speaker 4>the I think the reality is is that he is

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<v Speaker 4>so much more effective in making these arguments than she is.

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<v Speaker 4>But this is what she needs. She needs to be

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<v Speaker 4>rolling out people like Barrick Obaman out. It really nail

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<v Speaker 4>her message in. With less than two weeks now away

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<v Speaker 4>from November five.

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<v Speaker 1>Kamala Harris is directly appealing to American women on the

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<v Speaker 1>hot issue of abortion rights, but that leaves the Democrats

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<v Speaker 1>exposed with the other half of the population. There's a

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<v Speaker 1>significant differential in Harris's popularity with men.

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<v Speaker 4>I think there's been a problem for the Democrats over

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<v Speaker 4>a long period of time which Trump has exploited. And

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<v Speaker 4>I think this plays particularly towards young men who basically

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<v Speaker 4>have this combative view towards the left now and in

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<v Speaker 4>Donald Trump they see a figure and I conoclastic, irrev

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<v Speaker 4>and political figure who's willing to give the middle finger

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<v Speaker 4>to the left and the sense of political correctness and

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<v Speaker 4>these trends of diversity, equity, inclusion, and some of these

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<v Speaker 4>narratives about toxic masculinity and so on. So I think

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<v Speaker 4>if you look at it from that perspective, this is

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<v Speaker 4>one possible explanation for why Trump has been able to

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<v Speaker 4>say outrageous things from the absurd to the extreme, that

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<v Speaker 4>any other politician would never be able to say and

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<v Speaker 4>get away with, and yet not faced a penalty electorally.

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<v Speaker 5>They're eating the dogs, the people that came in, they're

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<v Speaker 5>eating the cats, they're eating.

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<v Speaker 4>In fact, he seems to have been rewarded and edging closer.

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<v Speaker 4>So I don't think that's something that you can really

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<v Speaker 4>arrest in the final two weeks of an election campaign. However,

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<v Speaker 4>I mean, if she loses, I think there will be

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<v Speaker 4>some need to address this issue about appealing to young men.

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<v Speaker 4>You can't just rely on young women to make up

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<v Speaker 4>for young men abandoning you. So I think if they

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<v Speaker 4>actually did something there that would make them more formidable.

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<v Speaker 4>But to look that's said, it's pretty late in the

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<v Speaker 4>dapt for them to be able to rectify that.

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<v Speaker 1>I'd say, in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Donald Trump was working

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<v Speaker 1>a different angle, frying chips and flipping burgers at McDonald's.

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<v Speaker 5>This is not a normal situation, isn't it. I don't know.

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<v Speaker 5>When you want a good looking family, how did you

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<v Speaker 5>produce those good looking kids? Of course, the whole thing

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<v Speaker 5>was staged. The McDonald's was closed. They weren't real customers.

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<v Speaker 1>Adam Crichton has been the Australians correspondent in Washington, DC

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<v Speaker 1>for the past few years.

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<v Speaker 5>But it completely dominated the news cycle. And despite the

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<v Speaker 5>fact that now he's definitely a politician, he's no longer

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<v Speaker 5>a businessman, but he's still the master showman and he's

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<v Speaker 5>just got his mind on how things are going to

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<v Speaker 5>play in the media all the time. And I think

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<v Speaker 5>that stunt, and it was a stunt, really worked very

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<v Speaker 5>well for him.

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<v Speaker 1>He's got amazing stage presence. He is one of those

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<v Speaker 1>people with the X factor, isn't he. How seriously do

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<v Speaker 1>you think Americans are taking into account the things that

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<v Speaker 1>they learned about him since the twenty sixteen election, For example,

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<v Speaker 1>the events of January sixth, when a mob of his

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<v Speaker 1>supporters stormed the Capitol, his reluctance to concede power. Have

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<v Speaker 1>those things made a difference?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, look, I think they have and he must really

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<v Speaker 5>regret his behavior on January the sixth.

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<v Speaker 1>We fight like hell, and if you don't fight like hell,

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<v Speaker 1>you're not.

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<v Speaker 3>Going to have a country anymore.

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<v Speaker 5>Because I think if he hadn't behaved that way, and

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<v Speaker 5>of course he would dispute obviously that he did anything wrong,

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<v Speaker 5>but I'm sure in private he'd be like, oh, if

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<v Speaker 5>I just had have said a few more things, it

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<v Speaker 5>wouldn't be so bad for me. And I think he'd

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<v Speaker 5>be a shoeing to win, because the reality is the

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<v Speaker 5>Biden administration's very unpopular, and Harris is walking on eggshells

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<v Speaker 5>trying to distance herself from it while she still is

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<v Speaker 5>the vice president and she still has loyalty to Joe Biden.

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<v Speaker 5>So it's a hard task. Now you have the huge

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<v Speaker 5>influx of immigrants, which has been very unpopular in the

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<v Speaker 5>southern border, and then of course you had a couple

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<v Speaker 5>of years of nine percent inflation thereabouts, which hasn't happened

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<v Speaker 5>in your decades. So those two things would ordinarily see

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<v Speaker 5>the end of any government. But as you suggest, there

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<v Speaker 5>is all this baggage that Trump has, and it is

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<v Speaker 5>very huge, and it's certainly ways on his candidacy.

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<v Speaker 1>It has to Trump's seventy eight now, and he says

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<v Speaker 1>if he loses, he won't try again in twenty twenty eight.

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<v Speaker 5>He pretty emphatically ruled that out a few weeks ago.

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<v Speaker 5>It wasn't widely reported in the mainstream media, but no,

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<v Speaker 5>he was pretty emphatic. He said, no, absolutely not.

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<v Speaker 2>I will not run again.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up, can Trump actually win this? While I've got you,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a new episode of our podcast Bromwin coming this weekend.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the cold case investigation by one of the world's

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<v Speaker 1>most famous investigative journalists, our very own Headley Thomas. You

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<v Speaker 1>can check out the latter episode and hear all of

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<v Speaker 1>Bromwin first and read all our exclusive stories by joining

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<v Speaker 1>us subscribers at the Australian dot com dot au. Cameron

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<v Speaker 1>Stewart will bought a plane to America in the coming days,

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<v Speaker 1>where he'll join Joe Kelly and Adam Crichton on the ground.

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<v Speaker 1>His intern will be holding the fort here in Australia

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<v Speaker 1>while he's gone. I like your fairy friend.

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<v Speaker 2>This is Corgy, a cat called Corgy.

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<v Speaker 1>As the Australian's chief international correspondent, Cam's covered his fair

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<v Speaker 1>share of US elections. He was there in twenty sixteen

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<v Speaker 1>and again in twenty twenty. Cam was at Capitol Hill

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<v Speaker 1>on January sixth when a mob of Trump supporters stormed Congress.

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<v Speaker 2>No presidential election has been this closed for so long,

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<v Speaker 2>for sixty years. And what I think is remarkable about that, Claire,

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<v Speaker 2>is We've never really had such leading drama. We've had

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<v Speaker 2>a sitting president at the eleventh hour abandoned his candidacy.

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<v Speaker 2>We've had two assassination attempts, complete with a bloodied the

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<v Speaker 2>year and a defiant vist pump.

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<v Speaker 3>Ready shoot us down.

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<v Speaker 2>And we've had the sudden rise of a black woman

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<v Speaker 2>taking on a newly convicted felon. After all of that,

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<v Speaker 2>you would have thought somehow or either one of the

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<v Speaker 2>candidates would surge ahead. But here we are almost deadlocked

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<v Speaker 2>less than two weeks before the election.

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<v Speaker 1>Over the years, you've spoken to thousands of Americans. Cam

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<v Speaker 1>what's your sense now of where where America is at?

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<v Speaker 1>Are they willing to give Donald Trump another chance?

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<v Speaker 2>I think they are potentially willing, Claire. It's interesting because

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<v Speaker 2>the electric is changing. It's changed from the previous campaigns

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<v Speaker 2>I've covered, and a lot of it has gone in

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's favor to an extent. For example, Trump is now

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<v Speaker 2>winning black and Hispanic votes that he never won before,

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<v Speaker 2>and that doesn't get these and the Hispanic voters are

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<v Speaker 2>still overwhelming with Democrat, but he's peeling off one tenth

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<v Speaker 2>of them or fifth of them's according to some polls.

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<v Speaker 2>And you know that could be a really important fact

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<v Speaker 2>that in a close race like this we're seeing Trump

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<v Speaker 2>his red red meat megabase is very loyal. They will

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<v Speaker 2>never move. The key for Trump is can he win

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<v Speaker 2>back the middle ground which he lost last time. Now

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<v Speaker 2>in areas like the Hispanic vote, the Black volt and

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<v Speaker 2>also just the mail vote. He's got very high support

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<v Speaker 2>amongst men, that fifteen percent advantage compared to Krmala Harris.

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<v Speaker 2>So there are who is a solid constituency for Trump

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<v Speaker 2>and it could be enough to get him over the line.

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<v Speaker 2>But on the other side, we have a gender to

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<v Speaker 2>bide here where Carla Harris enjoys a massive amount of

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<v Speaker 2>support from women. They are of about fifteen percent as well.

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<v Speaker 2>And also we have younger voters. The difference I think

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<v Speaker 2>between this and the twenty twenty election I Coavi Claire,

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<v Speaker 2>is that a lot of younger voters are getting very

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<v Speaker 2>energized and enjoining this. They're registering for voting now, et

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<v Speaker 2>cetera on the Democrat side, mainly because they see Harris

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<v Speaker 2>as a generational change a candidate where they didn't get

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<v Speaker 2>that with Biden in twenty twenty. And I think that's

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<v Speaker 2>something that the Democrats are really hoping will be a

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<v Speaker 2>key factor here, get out the vote amongst young Democrat voters.

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<v Speaker 1>Poles have been getting US voting sentiment wrong now for

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<v Speaker 1>nearly a decade. So can we trust the polls this

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<v Speaker 1>time around?

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<v Speaker 2>There's a critical question because in twenty sixteen, of course,

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<v Speaker 2>the poles famously underestimated Trump. He came and defeated tell

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<v Speaker 2>to read Clinton when he was up to three points

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<v Speaker 2>behind on the day. So the poles were very wrong.

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<v Speaker 2>And then all the posters said, hey, that's okay, we've

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<v Speaker 2>fixed it. We've worked it out. This is the signment

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<v Speaker 2>Trump voter. We're going to adjust our polls accordingly. In

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<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty, they are also disastrous. They underestimated the Trump

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<v Speaker 2>vote by about three point five percentage points on average,

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<v Speaker 2>So that meant that while Biden did win the twenty

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<v Speaker 2>twenty lesion, he went up by far less than the

0:13:21.559 --> 0:13:24.959
<v Speaker 2>poles were suggesting. Now the posters like the boy who

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<v Speaker 2>Crow Will are saying yes, we've fixed it again. Believe

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<v Speaker 2>us this time around. But now if they have, fine,

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<v Speaker 2>But if they haven't, then Trump will win because the

0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:35.959
<v Speaker 2>Poles are simply too close.

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<v Speaker 5>So if the.

0:13:36.840 --> 0:13:39.920
<v Speaker 2>Poles again underestimate Trump, he will win. And that's a

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<v Speaker 2>real wildcard and that's certainly what a lot of Trump

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<v Speaker 2>voters are quite hoping for.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, you can read and watch all the reporting

0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:49.920
<v Speaker 1>and analysis from Cameron, Joe and Adam for the coming

0:13:49.920 --> 0:13:53.199
<v Speaker 1>eleven days and life coverage of the results as they

0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:56.520
<v Speaker 1>come in at The Australian dot com. Do you a

0:13:56.600 --> 0:14:01.160
<v Speaker 1>day's subscription costs less than a small fry at McDonald's

0:14:01.200 --> 0:14:04.160
<v Speaker 1>and that's not a stunt. Thanks for joining us on

0:14:04.200 --> 0:14:07.640
<v Speaker 1>the front this week. Our team is Kristin Amyot, Leah Sammaglue,

0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:16.480
<v Speaker 1>Jasper League, Josh Burton, Tiffany Demac and me Claire Harvey.