1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,560 Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gatigel 2 00:00:02,600 --> 00:00:09,160 Speaker 1: people of the Urination. Hello and welcome to the Real 3 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:12,600 Speaker 1: Story with Joe Hildebrand. I'm Joe Hildebrand, and this week, 4 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:17,000 Speaker 1: of course, there is just one story in town. Donald 5 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:20,599 Speaker 1: Trump is the next president of the United States of 6 00:00:20,640 --> 00:00:28,720 Speaker 1: America again. Yes, he's going to make America great again again. Now, 7 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:32,519 Speaker 1: a lot of people have been shocked by this, a 8 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:35,600 Speaker 1: lot of people seem to be quite traumatized on social media. 9 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:39,879 Speaker 1: They're crying, they're crying blue tears. But if you've been 10 00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:42,320 Speaker 1: listening to this podcast, you would have known this was coming. 11 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:44,760 Speaker 1: You would have known this was coming virtually since his 12 00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 1: podcast began, and I was warning about this, warning about 13 00:00:48,800 --> 00:00:52,240 Speaker 1: the old too late switcheroo between Joe Biden and Kamala 14 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,000 Speaker 1: Harris that were just ensure that someone else lost in 15 00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: Joe Biden's place because they didn't allow enough time for 16 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 1: a proper primary race from which could emerge a candidate 17 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:06,160 Speaker 1: who could actually beat Donald Trump. And we'll go back 18 00:01:06,400 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: and find out where it. 19 00:01:07,520 --> 00:01:09,640 Speaker 2: All went wrong, very very shortly. 20 00:01:09,520 --> 00:01:11,399 Speaker 1: And again, if you had have been listening to this 21 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 1: podcast just three weeks ago, you would have heard a 22 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,839 Speaker 1: bloke who I reckon is probably the best political brain 23 00:01:17,000 --> 00:01:19,399 Speaker 1: in Australia, but you probably never heard of him. Tim 24 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 1: Gleeson on this podcast say Trump is going to win, 25 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 1: and win well. 26 00:01:24,560 --> 00:01:25,480 Speaker 2: And here's why. 27 00:01:26,080 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 1: You would have heard the real story, the biggest story 28 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:32,399 Speaker 1: on the planet as to what happened in that US 29 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:36,119 Speaker 1: election that apparently shocked everybody else. You would have heard 30 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:39,040 Speaker 1: it right here. So if that's not the best advertisement 31 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:40,960 Speaker 1: for this podcast, I don't know what is. 32 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 2: Of course, it's a. 33 00:01:41,760 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 1: Pretty pointless advertisement because if you're listening to it, you're 34 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 1: already listening to it. 35 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:45,920 Speaker 2: So good on you. 36 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:49,320 Speaker 1: You are among the select few who are the smartest 37 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:51,600 Speaker 1: people on the planet and who had the inside running 38 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:54,400 Speaker 1: on the biggest story of the planet that just took 39 00:01:54,440 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 1: place in the US over the last couple of days. 40 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 1: How did we get here? It's not like Donald Trump 41 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: came out of nowhere. Yeah, twenty sixteen, he surprised a 42 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:11,880 Speaker 1: few people. They said, no way, he's never going to 43 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,960 Speaker 1: win the Republican primary. Then he won the Republican primary. 44 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:17,240 Speaker 1: They said, there's no way he's going to win the 45 00:02:17,240 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 1: general election. Then he won the general election, and they said, oh, 46 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:22,440 Speaker 1: there's no way that that's ever going to happen again. 47 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 1: So how is it? How is it that the whole world, 48 00:02:26,800 --> 00:02:31,400 Speaker 1: and in particular the biggest, supposedly most sophisticated and powerful 49 00:02:31,880 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 1: political machine on the planet, the US DNC, the Democratic 50 00:02:36,880 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 1: Party of the United States of America, the oldest modern 51 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:44,040 Speaker 1: democracy in the world, How did it get completely blindsided? 52 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 1: Not once, but twice, after they'd already had a dress 53 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:51,680 Speaker 1: rehearsal for this exact same thing happening, they let it 54 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:52,440 Speaker 1: happen again. 55 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:54,840 Speaker 2: In fact, they made it happen again. And we'll get 56 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:55,520 Speaker 2: to that shortly. 57 00:02:55,800 --> 00:02:58,960 Speaker 1: They let it happen again. But even worse, Donald Trump 58 00:02:59,080 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 1: has not just won the residency, he's won the popular 59 00:03:02,360 --> 00:03:05,800 Speaker 1: vote for the first time in twenty years, the first 60 00:03:05,800 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 1: time in twenty years any Republican has ever won the 61 00:03:09,120 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 1: popular vote. So the left, the Democrats, they can't even 62 00:03:12,040 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 1: say what they said in twenty sixteen when Hillary Clinton 63 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 1: list and say, oh, yeah, but we won the popular vote. 64 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 1: More people voted for us. It's just the electoral college 65 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 1: system is rigged. It's unfair. No, this time, Donald Trump 66 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:26,679 Speaker 1: won the presidency and the popular vote, the electoral college 67 00:03:26,720 --> 00:03:32,360 Speaker 1: and the popular vote by millions millions of people, not 68 00:03:32,400 --> 00:03:35,920 Speaker 1: only that the Republicans won the House of Representatives and 69 00:03:35,960 --> 00:03:39,200 Speaker 1: they won the Senate, and it looks like Trump's going 70 00:03:39,200 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 1: to win every single swing state, all seven of them. 71 00:03:43,680 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 1: This is a landslide. It is a slaughter, It is 72 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:50,560 Speaker 1: a blood bath. And it was all happening in plain sight. 73 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:53,760 Speaker 1: All the Democratic strategists had to do was listen to 74 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:56,120 Speaker 1: this podcast. They would have known exactly what was coming, 75 00:03:57,080 --> 00:04:02,000 Speaker 1: and yet they just walked right into it. How now again, 76 00:04:02,080 --> 00:04:04,680 Speaker 1: we know Donald Trump won in twenty sixteen and beat 77 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton. There was a victory celebration all planned with 78 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 1: a glass ceiling that was about to be shattered at 79 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 1: our victory party. That ceiling is still there, ladies and gentlemen, 80 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:18,919 Speaker 1: it's intact. And then of course they wheel out Joe Biden. 81 00:04:18,960 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 1: He builds this giant coalition that goes all the way 82 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:24,840 Speaker 1: from the very very very far left, like actual communists, 83 00:04:25,560 --> 00:04:27,719 Speaker 1: to about as far right as you can go before 84 00:04:27,720 --> 00:04:29,880 Speaker 1: you get to Donald Trump. So we are talking everything 85 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:34,480 Speaker 1: from Bernie Sanders socialists to Mitt Romney Republicans. That entire coalition, 86 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:38,240 Speaker 1: the Lincoln Projects, the Republican Never Trumps, plus everyone on 87 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 1: the left from the Greenies to the socialists to the 88 00:04:40,839 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 1: center left. They all vote for Joe Biden. Right, he 89 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:47,680 Speaker 1: gets the one record vote in US presidential history, the 90 00:04:47,760 --> 00:04:51,120 Speaker 1: highest popular vote ever, north of eighty million by the 91 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:54,440 Speaker 1: time counting was done, again, well ahead of Donald Trump. 92 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,719 Speaker 1: But this is the thing you see, as everyone was saying, see, 93 00:04:57,720 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: he's done it, there's nothing more to worry about. 94 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 2: The night is over. 95 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:02,960 Speaker 1: Joe Biden's the president. We can go back to normal. 96 00:05:03,279 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 1: Everything is fine. But what nobody seemed to think about, 97 00:05:08,160 --> 00:05:11,760 Speaker 1: what nobody was talking about was the person who got 98 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 1: the second highest vote, the second highest popular vote in 99 00:05:16,360 --> 00:05:19,600 Speaker 1: all of US presidential history. And do you know who 100 00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:23,760 Speaker 1: that was, Well, let's dig into the history books. That 101 00:05:23,920 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 1: was Donald Trump in the very same election. So at 102 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:31,840 Speaker 1: the same time as everyone's going rah rah rah, everything's fine, 103 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 1: nothing to see here, no problem, Joe's fixed it. Trump's gone, 104 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:36,520 Speaker 1: He's defeated. 105 00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 2: He's dead. 106 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:41,240 Speaker 1: He could never come back from this, they completely ignore 107 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:47,800 Speaker 1: the fact that everyone except Donald Trump combined managed to 108 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 1: get the highest vote in US presidential election history. So 109 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:55,200 Speaker 1: not just Joe Biden. These were not just votes for 110 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,560 Speaker 1: Joe Biden. These were votes for anyone but Donald Trump. 111 00:05:59,120 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 1: People like Bernie Sanders, who had been absolutely hell bent 112 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:04,719 Speaker 1: against Joe Biden in the lead up to the election. 113 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 1: They fold and they throw in so you can have 114 00:06:06,720 --> 00:06:09,279 Speaker 1: them more Republicans who would have run against Joe Biden, 115 00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:11,919 Speaker 1: who would have spoken out against Joe Biden, voted against 116 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 1: Joe Biden in the past, say beating Donald Trump's too important. 117 00:06:15,160 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 1: We're going to throw in with sleepy Joe. And so 118 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:19,919 Speaker 1: they do it. So they all do it, and that's great, 119 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:24,039 Speaker 1: that's an amazing result. But that is anyone but Donald Trump. 120 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:27,839 Speaker 1: That is everyone but Donald Trump. That is that vote. 121 00:06:28,000 --> 00:06:31,599 Speaker 1: Donald Trump's vote the second highest in US presidential history, 122 00:06:31,960 --> 00:06:36,520 Speaker 1: more than seventy million, potentially more than he even gets 123 00:06:36,560 --> 00:06:40,839 Speaker 1: this time around when he's won. They were all votes 124 00:06:41,360 --> 00:06:44,840 Speaker 1: just for Donald Trump. This is a guy who can 125 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 1: just say whatever he wants, and he does say whatever 126 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:50,560 Speaker 1: he wants, and people come out and vote for him 127 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,800 Speaker 1: in their millions, and you need literally everybody else to 128 00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:56,960 Speaker 1: be on the same side to beat him. But no 129 00:06:57,000 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 1: one's talking about that. No one is speaking out about that. 130 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 1: And say, hey, over here, what about all these guys 131 00:07:02,440 --> 00:07:04,239 Speaker 1: who voted for him? Are they just going to go away? 132 00:07:04,360 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 1: These seventy million people right here, Are we just going 133 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 1: to forget about them. Pretend they're all happy. Now, they're 134 00:07:09,960 --> 00:07:14,240 Speaker 1: cool that their guy lost. Well, there was one person 135 00:07:14,840 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 1: who noticed it. I won't sort of over egg the Omelet. 136 00:07:19,520 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 1: I don't want to sort of you know, I don't 137 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 1: want to say I told you so. But so he's 138 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:30,200 Speaker 1: an uncannily good looking, well chiseled, yet strangely humble figure. 139 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: A journalist by the name of Joe Hildebrand who wrote 140 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:38,320 Speaker 1: on this day, this very day that I'm recording it, 141 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:43,600 Speaker 1: the seventh of November seven to eleven, in twenty twenty, 142 00:07:43,720 --> 00:07:46,840 Speaker 1: exactly four years ago. Very first thing I wrote after 143 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:52,240 Speaker 1: the last US presidential election. So the battle is over 144 00:07:52,280 --> 00:07:57,280 Speaker 1: for Joe Biden, but the war is just beginning. And 145 00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,880 Speaker 1: it went on to say the good news is this 146 00:07:59,920 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 1: is no longer fight against Donald Trump, but a fight 147 00:08:02,400 --> 00:08:06,240 Speaker 1: for the hearts and minds of the seventy million Americans 148 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:09,640 Speaker 1: who turned out to vote for him. The bad news 149 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 1: is that, unlike Trump, they are not going anywhere. Well, 150 00:08:13,760 --> 00:08:15,800 Speaker 1: I'll tell you what I was wrong about one thing. 151 00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 1: Trump wasn't going anywhere either. But let's continue our little 152 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:24,679 Speaker 1: history lesson Because as Joe's cognitive decline became clearer and clearer, 153 00:08:24,680 --> 00:08:26,760 Speaker 1: and clearer, and as he started to make more and 154 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,160 Speaker 1: more stumbles, and as it was clear that the US 155 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 1: economy wasn't doing all that well, the midterms came up. 156 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:36,760 Speaker 1: These are the midterm congressional elections, in which a bunch 157 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:41,720 Speaker 1: of Senators and all the House of Representative representatives go 158 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:45,720 Speaker 1: up for election. And this was looking really, really bad 159 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:50,400 Speaker 1: for Joe Biden. This was the much anticipated red wave. 160 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:55,520 Speaker 1: And of course, as long as all these rogue results 161 00:08:55,600 --> 00:08:58,760 Speaker 1: keep happening, the pulses are constantly recalibrating and re twigging 162 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: their figures, and they're polling methods and how they weight 163 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 1: their polls and pick up certain demographics and account for 164 00:09:04,679 --> 00:09:06,720 Speaker 1: people who might be sort of polls to shy, or 165 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:09,200 Speaker 1: account for people who it might be hard to reach. 166 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 1: So they're constantly sort of, especially after twenty sixteen where 167 00:09:12,120 --> 00:09:14,319 Speaker 1: everyone got it so horribly wrong, they're constantly sort of, 168 00:09:14,400 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 1: you know, tweaking the machine to try and get a 169 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 1: better and better, better result. And this time they're predicting 170 00:09:19,200 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 1: this Republican blood bath. The Republicans are going to come 171 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:24,960 Speaker 1: out and they're going to sweep the Senate, sweep Congress. 172 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:26,920 Speaker 2: And it turns out they were wrong again. 173 00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 1: Turns out that Red wave was just a bit of 174 00:09:29,640 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 1: a trickle, and so the Democrat saying, ah, that's fine, 175 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:34,480 Speaker 1: see Trump really is over. 176 00:09:34,559 --> 00:09:35,680 Speaker 2: It's all over. Haha. 177 00:09:35,760 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 1: You don't know anything, you crazy tea party types. 178 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 2: We're all good. 179 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 1: Everything's okay, nothing to worry about, nothing to see here. 180 00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:48,679 Speaker 1: The one catch, however, was that Trump wasn't running in 181 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:52,040 Speaker 1: that election, but it didn't really seem to matter because 182 00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:54,679 Speaker 1: it was a proxy Trump election. He was the one 183 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,840 Speaker 1: who was pre selecting all the Republican candidates who lost, 184 00:09:58,240 --> 00:10:01,199 Speaker 1: and he was going to use that red wave as 185 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:04,720 Speaker 1: the justification, if you like, for him to come back 186 00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 1: into politics to run for the presidency again on the 187 00:10:07,600 --> 00:10:10,440 Speaker 1: back of this huge surge in popularity for all these 188 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 1: Trumpian candidates that he basically hand picked. And then the 189 00:10:16,880 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 1: Red Wave doesn't happen. Everyone thinks, oh, that's all over. 190 00:10:19,720 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 1: Trump can't come back after this, And what does he do. 191 00:10:23,200 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: He just decides to go ahead with it anyway. He 192 00:10:24,960 --> 00:10:31,199 Speaker 1: launches his bid to become US president again. Does this big, sprawling, 193 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:35,160 Speaker 1: meandering speech at Marlago, goes on forever and ever and ever. 194 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 1: People are sort of rolling their eyes, They're crawling up 195 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: the walls. Trump's going out. He doesn't know what he's 196 00:10:39,559 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 1: fighting for. He's not fighting for this huge wave of 197 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: popular support calling him to come back. It never happened. 198 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:50,040 Speaker 1: And of course he's going on about how the previous 199 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:53,800 Speaker 1: election was stolen from him anyway, but he's disgraced himself 200 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:57,360 Speaker 1: by backing all these rioters who stormed the Capitol and 201 00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:00,320 Speaker 1: made absolute numpies of themselves. Later on, of course, a 202 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 1: bunch of people died, not the people who everyone says 203 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:04,120 Speaker 1: died on the day. The only person who died on 204 00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 1: the day was an actual writer, not a policeman. Policemen 205 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 1: died later on, and blah blah blah bah. Point being, 206 00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:11,960 Speaker 1: people say that this was this huge insurrection or whatever. Well, 207 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 1: the Capitol is still standing. Everything's fine. But it was 208 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 1: dumb and it was ugly. And when an American president 209 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 1: refuses to concede defeat, that's a really dangerous thing for democracy. 210 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:23,560 Speaker 1: The Democrats are absolutely right about that point, being though 211 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:28,320 Speaker 1: that incident made all of Trump's former Republican allies turn 212 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:32,160 Speaker 1: on him. Mike Pence, his own vice president, said yep, sorry, mate, 213 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:32,839 Speaker 1: too far. 214 00:11:32,960 --> 00:11:36,960 Speaker 2: This time you're gone. You're fired, and so all. 215 00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:39,120 Speaker 1: Trump has left is this sort of husk of these 216 00:11:39,160 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: tea party Republicans, these Trump Republicans, who have to get 217 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 1: his approval to get pre selected in his party. But 218 00:11:45,240 --> 00:11:48,080 Speaker 1: once they get his approval, they go to the electorate 219 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,200 Speaker 1: and the electric thinks, who are these widows? Who are 220 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 1: these we guys? God, I'm not voting for them. And 221 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 1: so Trump's all washed up. He's got nothing to fight for. 222 00:11:56,240 --> 00:12:00,959 Speaker 1: He's demonized, he's seen as a rat in his own party, 223 00:12:01,120 --> 00:12:03,600 Speaker 1: an embarrassment, and all he's got is his handful of 224 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 1: sort of Republicans who can't seem to win a general election. 225 00:12:08,360 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 1: And again, no one's paying any attention to him, no 226 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:14,520 Speaker 1: one's taking him seriously. He's all washed up. And so 227 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:18,520 Speaker 1: what do the Democrats decide to do. They decide to 228 00:12:18,520 --> 00:12:22,040 Speaker 1: prosecute him, They decide to bury him, they decide to 229 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:25,720 Speaker 1: make a martyr of him. Now, there are two schools 230 00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:28,959 Speaker 1: of thought as to what the Democrats are actually thinking here, 231 00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 1: if indeed they are thinking at all, because this is 232 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:34,480 Speaker 1: one rogue sort of Democrat Da in New York who 233 00:12:34,520 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 1: was doing what even the federal authorities didn't want to 234 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:39,480 Speaker 1: touch with a barge poll and going after Donald Trump 235 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:42,960 Speaker 1: over this kind of stormy Daniel's hush money stuff that 236 00:12:43,720 --> 00:12:46,880 Speaker 1: may have been defined as a campaign expense whatever, whatever, 237 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 1: very boring, very convoluted point being, they make a martyr 238 00:12:50,080 --> 00:12:53,640 Speaker 1: of him. They produce that iconic mug shot that Trump 239 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:55,839 Speaker 1: supporters say, this shot is going to win us the 240 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:57,920 Speaker 1: next election. You have just won us the next election, 241 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:01,960 Speaker 1: and all the go No, a criminal, you know, is crook, 242 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 1: He's a fraudstery, belonging behind bars. 243 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:05,560 Speaker 2: No way anyone's ever going to elect that guy. Are 244 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 2: you're kidding me? 245 00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 1: So one school of thought is they're just stupidly thinking 246 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 1: we can just actually put this guy in jail. We 247 00:13:12,520 --> 00:13:14,920 Speaker 1: can actually just knock him out of the entire legal 248 00:13:14,960 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 1: and political system, not with an election, but with a 249 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 1: court case, with a prosecution. There is another school of 250 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 1: thought that Joe Biden was so ainsistent on running again 251 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:32,920 Speaker 1: for another four years, despite how old he was, and 252 00:13:32,920 --> 00:13:37,800 Speaker 1: despite his cognitive decline, and yet at the same time 253 00:13:38,160 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 1: as this wilful arrogance, this narcissism that put his own 254 00:13:44,040 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 1: political prestige against the interests of the Democratic Party and 255 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 1: the nation as a whole, that despite all this, they 256 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:55,880 Speaker 1: were so aware of how useless he was and how 257 00:13:56,480 --> 00:14:00,240 Speaker 1: dysfunctional he was and how little his brain could actually work. 258 00:14:00,679 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: That they thought to themselves, and again, this is a serious, 259 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 1: serious theory that could actually be true, that their strategy 260 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 1: for winning the next election for Joe Biden was to 261 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:20,200 Speaker 1: put him against Donald Trump again, because Donald Trump was 262 00:14:20,240 --> 00:14:23,280 Speaker 1: the only person crazier and more dysfunctional and more brain 263 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:27,360 Speaker 1: damage than Joe Biden. So you think our candidate for 264 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:29,880 Speaker 1: the leader of the free world, the most powerful position 265 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:34,200 Speaker 1: on the planet, is so brain damaged that the best 266 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:36,680 Speaker 1: thing to do is not to get another candidate. 267 00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 2: Oh no, too. 268 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 1: Easy, is to find another opponent who is even more 269 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 1: brain damage and crazy than him, who is even less lucid, 270 00:14:45,680 --> 00:14:48,920 Speaker 1: who is less competent at putting its sentence together, even 271 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:49,800 Speaker 1: more unpopular. 272 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:50,360 Speaker 2: Who's that? 273 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:53,480 Speaker 1: That's Donald Trump? How do we make him run again? 274 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:55,880 Speaker 1: We make him a marder, We give him a reason 275 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 1: to fight. So these are the two competing narratives. Either 276 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:01,560 Speaker 1: they're so stupid that they don't realize that they're energizing 277 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:05,480 Speaker 1: Donald Trump by prosecuting him when he had nothing to 278 00:15:05,520 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 1: fight for in his support base was disappearing, Or they're 279 00:15:08,920 --> 00:15:12,760 Speaker 1: even more stupid and think that by deliberately provoking Donald 280 00:15:12,800 --> 00:15:15,360 Speaker 1: Trump into a fight, turning him into a martyr, raising 281 00:15:15,400 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: his profile, energizing his supporters. They will then produce an 282 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 1: opponent who is the only opponent who is nuts enough 283 00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:24,920 Speaker 1: for their own nuts and brain dead candidate to beat. 284 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:28,080 Speaker 1: This is what they call three D chess. And we 285 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 1: all know how that turned out. Very quickly emerged that 286 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:36,280 Speaker 1: even Donald Trump was way more popular and seen as 287 00:15:36,320 --> 00:15:39,080 Speaker 1: way more competent than Joe Biden. And of course he 288 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:41,560 Speaker 1: just stuffed up again and again. There was the debate 289 00:15:41,640 --> 00:15:45,280 Speaker 1: where his brain froze. Then he confused Vladimir Pudin with 290 00:15:45,480 --> 00:15:51,400 Speaker 1: Vladimir Zelenski. That's like confusing the Menendez brothers with their parents. 291 00:15:52,040 --> 00:15:54,520 Speaker 1: But of course, by the time the Democrats are prepared 292 00:15:54,560 --> 00:15:57,800 Speaker 1: to admit this, they've already basically canceled the primaries. They've 293 00:15:57,800 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 1: all basically told everyone else, and now you've got to 294 00:15:59,680 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 1: tap them on this one. 295 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 2: You're not running. 296 00:16:01,320 --> 00:16:03,280 Speaker 1: It's we're going to give it to Joe. And then 297 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 1: it turns out that Joe can't do it, but the 298 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 1: money's already come in and they have to give it 299 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:09,320 Speaker 1: to someone else on the same ticket. Otherwise they have 300 00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: to kiss all those hundreds of millions of dollars goodbye. 301 00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:14,880 Speaker 1: And so the only person that they can replace their 302 00:16:14,880 --> 00:16:18,560 Speaker 1: ailing Joe Biden with, now that they have just put 303 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:20,720 Speaker 1: him up against the person they say is the biggest 304 00:16:20,720 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 1: threat to democracy in the United States of America's history, 305 00:16:24,520 --> 00:16:27,240 Speaker 1: the person that they buy one account actually put up 306 00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 1: there as the Republican candid They engineered it with their 307 00:16:29,960 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 1: three D chess making because they thought it was the 308 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 1: only guy that Joe Biden could be, the most dangerous 309 00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:37,280 Speaker 1: guy on the planet, who they either by accident or design, 310 00:16:37,680 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 1: put there through their own hopeless incompetence, And now they 311 00:16:42,040 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 1: can't even field their own demented candidate, And the only 312 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 1: person they can replace him with because they've backed themselves 313 00:16:48,480 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 1: into a corner so so so late in the game, 314 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:58,080 Speaker 1: is the worst performing primaries candidate in modern US history, 315 00:16:58,160 --> 00:17:01,240 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris, who was tipped to be the next big 316 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:03,880 Speaker 1: thing and who had to tap out of the first 317 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 1: and only presidential primary she contested in twenty nineteen because 318 00:17:09,320 --> 00:17:12,119 Speaker 1: she bombed in the debate so badly that it was 319 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 1: a national embarrassment and no one gave her any more money. 320 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:18,760 Speaker 1: She didn't get any delegates, and she just dropped out immediately, 321 00:17:20,359 --> 00:17:23,520 Speaker 1: worse performing primary candidate by a country mile, and then 322 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:28,360 Speaker 1: they basically hand her the presidency, hand her the candidacy 323 00:17:28,800 --> 00:17:31,600 Speaker 1: to be president next time without even having to face 324 00:17:31,880 --> 00:17:34,679 Speaker 1: a second primary. She just gets it, she gets at 325 00:17:34,680 --> 00:17:38,000 Speaker 1: handed to it, and all she has to do is 326 00:17:38,040 --> 00:17:41,320 Speaker 1: not found up. And what does she do. She just 327 00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:44,439 Speaker 1: blows the whole thing up. I think I said on 328 00:17:44,480 --> 00:17:47,160 Speaker 1: this podcast before this election, is Kamala Harris's to lose? 329 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:50,280 Speaker 1: And tell you what she really delivered on that metric. 330 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:58,439 Speaker 1: And now let's speak to the other man of the moment. 331 00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:02,840 Speaker 1: This is our first ever returning guest on The Real 332 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 1: Story with Joe Hildeband, and the reason he's coming back 333 00:18:06,160 --> 00:18:10,960 Speaker 1: is because he predicted the greatest comeback in US political history. 334 00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:15,520 Speaker 1: Timmy Gleeson, Welcome back to The Real Story. You were 335 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 1: on this podcast three weeks ago and you said, as 336 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:23,440 Speaker 1: I trembled but agreed, you said you'd looked at the numbers, 337 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,160 Speaker 1: you'd felt the mood, you'd read the pulse of the nation, 338 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:29,240 Speaker 1: and that Donald Trump was coming back and coming back big. 339 00:18:29,280 --> 00:18:33,119 Speaker 1: And you said that three weeks ago, and now it's happened. 340 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:34,959 Speaker 2: How do you feel very tired? 341 00:18:35,119 --> 00:18:35,800 Speaker 3: As I. 342 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:40,159 Speaker 4: I've been taking victory lafts all day, texting people that 343 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:42,359 Speaker 4: showed from three weeks. 344 00:18:42,080 --> 00:18:44,360 Speaker 2: Ago, called it alieh it. 345 00:18:44,440 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 4: Was so predictable. I can't believe people are saying they 346 00:18:47,359 --> 00:18:49,920 Speaker 4: were shocked. We said three weeks ago that Trump's vote 347 00:18:49,920 --> 00:18:54,360 Speaker 4: on election day both in sixteen and in two thousand 348 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:57,160 Speaker 4: was undervalue. Dear the polls on election day by bout 349 00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:00,639 Speaker 4: between two and two and a half percent vote at 350 00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:05,160 Speaker 4: the moment I think is fifty point eight percent. Harris 351 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 4: is at forty seven point five. And if you look 352 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:12,760 Speaker 4: at the most reliable polls on poling Day, he bounced 353 00:19:12,760 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 4: between forty six and a half to forty eight percent. 354 00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 4: So again he's gone up to two and a half 355 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 4: percent on polling day, exactly the same thing that happening 356 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:25,560 Speaker 4: twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. 357 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:26,720 Speaker 2: It is just staggering. 358 00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,199 Speaker 1: And I've been telling people and thank god I and 359 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,640 Speaker 1: again I don't like armchair quarterbacking. There's lots of people 360 00:19:31,640 --> 00:19:33,800 Speaker 1: out there saying, oh, well, now, in retrospect, we could 361 00:19:33,800 --> 00:19:36,399 Speaker 1: see this would happen. You called it before it would happen. 362 00:19:36,440 --> 00:19:39,160 Speaker 1: You saw it happening right before your eyes, whereas others 363 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,200 Speaker 1: were blinded to it. I again, and your second, guess 364 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 1: yourself with these things, because you're being told that black 365 00:19:44,640 --> 00:19:47,160 Speaker 1: is white by other people. But again, I was telling 366 00:19:47,160 --> 00:19:49,320 Speaker 1: people in the lead up to the pole, you look 367 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:53,399 Speaker 1: at just a swing state like Wisconsin. In twenty twenty, 368 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 1: the polls had Joe Biden up by six point seven 369 00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 1: percent on the eve of the election, six point seven 370 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:03,639 Speaker 1: percent ahead in Wisconsin. Now he wins that, but he 371 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:07,639 Speaker 1: only wins it by zero point six percent. That's a 372 00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 1: factor of ten and just over six percent out, double 373 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:14,639 Speaker 1: the margin of error. And yet because he won it, 374 00:20:15,680 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 1: people don't seem to sort of talk about it. It's 375 00:20:17,400 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 1: not a shock because I've got it wrong. And I'm 376 00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:20,560 Speaker 1: looking at that and say that is a six percent 377 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 1: error there. What are the pulses doing wrong? What are 378 00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,560 Speaker 1: they failing to pick up? Is it shy Trump voters 379 00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:29,000 Speaker 1: just not being prepared to say that they're voting for Trump? 380 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 1: Is it Trump voters actively trolling the pulses and saying, oh, 381 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:33,440 Speaker 1: no body for come luck? 382 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:36,719 Speaker 4: Nah, you have a dinner party for ten people and 383 00:20:36,880 --> 00:20:40,440 Speaker 4: everybody agrees the voice is a good idea of supporting 384 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:43,960 Speaker 4: the voice, And when you get home, you know, three 385 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 4: or four of those people aren't supporting the voice. 386 00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:47,600 Speaker 3: So and it's the same. 387 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:51,159 Speaker 4: I'd never vote for Pauline Hanson never ever, but she 388 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:53,359 Speaker 4: gets ten, eleven, twelve percent of the vote. 389 00:20:53,800 --> 00:20:56,880 Speaker 3: That's the same with Trump. There's a cohorter. 390 00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:59,199 Speaker 4: People who aren't going to tell you they're voting for 391 00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,080 Speaker 4: Donald Trump, but they're always voting for Donald Trump. 392 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:05,160 Speaker 1: And that is compounded, I think by the fact that 393 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:09,240 Speaker 1: the so called, you know, respectable media, if you like 394 00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 1: the New York Times, as the Washington Posts, the MSNBC's 395 00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:18,719 Speaker 1: the CNNs, they are people who within their organization and indeed, 396 00:21:19,080 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 1: at those dinner parties that you were talking about to me, 397 00:21:21,640 --> 00:21:25,439 Speaker 1: they're people who literally would not meet or know anyone 398 00:21:25,480 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 1: who was actually voting for Donald Trump. So they're not 399 00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 1: in a position to say, well, hang on a minute, 400 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:34,040 Speaker 1: but my mate, you know blogs, he's voting for Donald Trump. 401 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:36,639 Speaker 1: Maybe there's something wrong with these poles, maybe they're not 402 00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,400 Speaker 1: picking up on something. There was a kind of collective blindness, 403 00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 1: wasn't there as well? Because the polls were reflecting what 404 00:21:42,920 --> 00:21:47,240 Speaker 1: the commentariat in the mainstream, the traditional whatever you want 405 00:21:47,280 --> 00:21:50,640 Speaker 1: to call it, the so called respectable media, what they 406 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,320 Speaker 1: already thought. So it was confirming their pre existing biases. 407 00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:54,680 Speaker 1: Do you reckon there's something in that as well. 408 00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 4: Yeah, And they're jumping on these poles, like there was 409 00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 4: a Sesler pole, that famous one in Iowa, which had 410 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 4: Trump one Iowa, I think, give give me up either 411 00:22:06,080 --> 00:22:09,440 Speaker 4: seven or eight percent the last two times he contested 412 00:22:09,480 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 4: the presidency. And three days out they release our poll 413 00:22:12,920 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 4: and he's down by six. And everybody said, this is amazing. 414 00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:19,679 Speaker 4: It gave the Democrats. They pumped their chests out, this 415 00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 4: is amazing, we can win this state. Donald Trump won. 416 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 4: They stayed by fourteen, and. 417 00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:27,400 Speaker 1: This is the amazing thing. So you have this Seltzer 418 00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,359 Speaker 1: poll and it's predicting Donald Trump up by six. You 419 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:32,359 Speaker 1: had a poll released at the exact same time I 420 00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 1: think it was something like half an hour earlier, like 421 00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 1: almost instantaneously, that had Trump up by I think eight 422 00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,960 Speaker 1: or ten percent. And yet people are saying, oh, well, 423 00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 1: just forget about that one. We don't like that one. 424 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:44,000 Speaker 1: Let's just look at this one that shows Harris winning. 425 00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:48,880 Speaker 1: That's got it. Iowa is almost a quintessential Republican state. Now, 426 00:22:48,920 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 1: surely that is Trump voters pretending they are voting for 427 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:56,480 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris, either to troll the pollsters or just not 428 00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 1: picking up the phone because they just don't give a 429 00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:00,440 Speaker 1: rats about the system. 430 00:23:00,520 --> 00:23:02,639 Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think it is in their defense getting 431 00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:07,800 Speaker 4: harder and harder to get a decent mix of from 432 00:23:08,160 --> 00:23:11,760 Speaker 4: what do you want to call university educated people, those 433 00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,360 Speaker 4: who work at sort of menial jobs, those who work 434 00:23:14,400 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 4: part time, those who work full time, those who have 435 00:23:17,119 --> 00:23:19,879 Speaker 4: a family, those who are single, those who are divorced. 436 00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:24,680 Speaker 4: It's getting ever since people stopped dating home phones, it's 437 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 4: become increasingly difficult. If you could tie the two together, 438 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:31,919 Speaker 4: poles have become much more unreliable. Once people don't have 439 00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,800 Speaker 4: a home telephone, it was so much easier to conduct one. 440 00:23:34,920 --> 00:23:35,400 Speaker 2: That's right. 441 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 1: And also I would think that there's also a Trump voters. 442 00:23:41,240 --> 00:23:45,200 Speaker 1: Trump supporters more generally, particularly most more ardent ones, are 443 00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:50,480 Speaker 1: inherently anti establishment. They are suspicious of institutions, that are 444 00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:53,159 Speaker 1: suspicious of the media, and of course, as we know 445 00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:57,200 Speaker 1: from twenty sixteen, they are suspicious, if not downright hostile 446 00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,800 Speaker 1: to polls and polsters. And I imagine that when a 447 00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:02,760 Speaker 1: lot of them received a call from a polster, they 448 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:05,560 Speaker 1: either deliberately tried to game it. If they were in 449 00:24:05,600 --> 00:24:07,320 Speaker 1: the mood for a bit of fun, or they just 450 00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:09,639 Speaker 1: simply hung up the phone and did not want to engage. 451 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, sometimes you just you've only got a certain amount 452 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,560 Speaker 4: of time to do the pole, and eventually you just. 453 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:17,639 Speaker 2: Take that's right, whoever's. 454 00:24:17,200 --> 00:24:19,800 Speaker 4: Answering, even though if it may be skewed, and you 455 00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:21,280 Speaker 4: say to yourself, well, I'm going to build it. 456 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 3: In the back end. 457 00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 4: Yeah, actually yeah, I polled fifty four registered Democrats and 458 00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:30,479 Speaker 4: only forty six registered Republicans. But I'll fix it up. 459 00:24:30,760 --> 00:24:32,200 Speaker 2: You know, that's right. 460 00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:34,159 Speaker 1: And this is what they call the waiting And for 461 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:37,280 Speaker 1: anyone who doesn't know, so fun little anecdote. I used 462 00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:39,800 Speaker 1: to do surveys for a group called the Transport Research 463 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:43,439 Speaker 1: Center about twenty or thirty years ago in Melbourne, and 464 00:24:43,600 --> 00:24:45,840 Speaker 1: one of the things we did was surveyed people at 465 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,760 Speaker 1: the footy at AFL games and ask them how they 466 00:24:48,800 --> 00:24:51,359 Speaker 1: got there, did they drive, they get bus, train, whatever, 467 00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,240 Speaker 1: to find out what transport services they needed to provide. 468 00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:57,080 Speaker 1: And obviously the easiest way to do that one is 469 00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 1: you could never do it during the game because they 470 00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:00,240 Speaker 1: were watching it and they'd kill you, especially if they 471 00:25:00,280 --> 00:25:02,919 Speaker 1: were callingwood supporters. And the other rule was, you'd go 472 00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,199 Speaker 1: down the aisle, right, obviously you can't be sort of, 473 00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:07,600 Speaker 1: you know, sticking abum in people's faces as you go 474 00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:08,920 Speaker 1: through the rows of seat. So you go down the 475 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:10,720 Speaker 1: aisle and you'd ask people on the ends, but you 476 00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:14,600 Speaker 1: could never just ask people on the end, so you 477 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 1: had to go to someone who was sitting on the 478 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:18,760 Speaker 1: aisle seat, and then the next one down you had 479 00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:21,439 Speaker 1: to go to the person who was sitting one seat in, 480 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,360 Speaker 1: not the person who was sitting on the aisle seat, 481 00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:26,160 Speaker 1: who often felt very aggrieved and left out and said 482 00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:30,359 Speaker 1: so because if you just talking to people on aisle seats, 483 00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,719 Speaker 1: you are possibly skewing the pool that you were interviewing, 484 00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:34,240 Speaker 1: because it could just be talking to people who got 485 00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,359 Speaker 1: there late. So people who get to footy games late 486 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,480 Speaker 1: are always on the bus or always driving and stuck 487 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:42,439 Speaker 1: in traffic, so you were actually skewing the results. So 488 00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:44,760 Speaker 1: what pulses do is they get all the raw data 489 00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:46,639 Speaker 1: that they collect, like you were saying, and then at 490 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:48,960 Speaker 1: the back end they wait it. They say, right, well, 491 00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:53,359 Speaker 1: we've managed to get hold of sixty men and forty women, 492 00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 1: but we know that there are actually fifty one women 493 00:25:57,119 --> 00:26:00,320 Speaker 1: and forty nine men in the general population, and so 494 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:04,160 Speaker 1: we're going to push up the waiting of the females 495 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,480 Speaker 1: who respond, and push down the waiting of the men 496 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,800 Speaker 1: that we got. And then you might do things for age. 497 00:26:09,359 --> 00:26:11,680 Speaker 1: In the US, it's often very race related as well, 498 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 1: so you might do things where they're black or Hispanic 499 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 1: or whatever. And then you feed all that into the 500 00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:20,560 Speaker 1: machine and hit the button and ding out it comes. 501 00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:23,760 Speaker 1: And yet it's wrong again, Timmy, do you reckon that 502 00:26:23,840 --> 00:26:27,000 Speaker 1: it's possible? Because they got it so wrong in twenty sixteen. 503 00:26:27,400 --> 00:26:29,679 Speaker 1: Then they say, right, we're not getting all the Republicans, 504 00:26:29,680 --> 00:26:31,879 Speaker 1: we're not finding them. So they start to wait it 505 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,359 Speaker 1: a bit more in twenty twenty and they start to 506 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:36,480 Speaker 1: get a bit closer it. They still sort of under 507 00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:41,320 Speaker 1: represent Trump's vote, and so they amp it up even more. 508 00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 1: You get to the mid terms, they're amping up the 509 00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,680 Speaker 1: same Republican red wave coming and then it doesn't materialize. Think, oh, 510 00:26:46,720 --> 00:26:49,040 Speaker 1: maybe we've amped up the republic We've turned up Republican, 511 00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:50,760 Speaker 1: We've turned up the red a bit too much. We 512 00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:52,919 Speaker 1: need to dial it down again. And they do it 513 00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,240 Speaker 1: for these poles, and even though it's actually higher for 514 00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:58,800 Speaker 1: Trump than it has been historically, it's still not high enough. 515 00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:01,400 Speaker 1: So every time they fix it, they seem to create 516 00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:03,840 Speaker 1: a new problem. That's the world's longest question. But what 517 00:27:03,880 --> 00:27:04,359 Speaker 1: do you reckon? 518 00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:08,280 Speaker 4: Yeah, well, so they were wrong in sixteen and twenty 519 00:27:08,800 --> 00:27:11,840 Speaker 4: and twenty two they were closer. But what they didn't 520 00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:15,040 Speaker 4: they said, we've adjusted our methods now, we've worked it out. 521 00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,159 Speaker 4: But what they didn't count into the fact the twenty 522 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:23,680 Speaker 4: two Republican Democrat midterms didn't involve Donald Trump. Donald Trump's 523 00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:28,960 Speaker 4: a separate, a separate entity. It was so predictable that 524 00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:30,639 Speaker 4: he was going to get a couple of more percent 525 00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,640 Speaker 4: on the day than the polling, even on the day, 526 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 4: and once you threw that into the mix, pre polls 527 00:27:38,840 --> 00:27:41,919 Speaker 4: and postals still increased, but reverting more back to the 528 00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 4: mean than the fifty percent in or more in some states. 529 00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:48,960 Speaker 4: It was always going to be difficult for us. 530 00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:54,600 Speaker 1: And obviously one of the Democrats' ingenius strategies was just 531 00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:56,720 Speaker 1: called Donald Trump and Nazi in a fascist, which of 532 00:27:56,720 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 1: course is calling the you know, forty plus person of 533 00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:04,000 Speaker 1: voters who are voting for him fascist supporters, Nazi sympathizers. 534 00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:06,679 Speaker 1: Really smart move that was, and of course Joe Biden 535 00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:10,200 Speaker 1: ends up calling them garbage. But the allegation that's always 536 00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:12,240 Speaker 1: thrown around is that Trump is a racist, that it's 537 00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:16,720 Speaker 1: just you know, white misogynist men who are voting for him. 538 00:28:17,280 --> 00:28:20,840 Speaker 1: His vote does skew mail. But it's not just white 539 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:24,400 Speaker 1: people anymore, is it. He's had a huge swing of 540 00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:27,920 Speaker 1: black voters come towards him, particularly male black voters, and 541 00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:32,160 Speaker 1: surprisingly given the comments about Puerto Rico, in fact, Hispanic 542 00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 1: voters in huge numbers swung behind Trump in this election, 543 00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:37,119 Speaker 1: didn't they. 544 00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:37,880 Speaker 2: What does that tell us? 545 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:42,479 Speaker 4: Yeah, he lost the Latino vote to Joe Biden by 546 00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 4: twenty three points, and in this election he won the 547 00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,560 Speaker 4: Latino vote by eight points. Now I'm just doing the math, 548 00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 4: that's about thirty one point turnaround, which is just unbelievable, 549 00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:03,400 Speaker 4: Like just remarkable. He's still obviously the Republicans only get 550 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:07,080 Speaker 4: a small percentage of blackmail votes. But what he was 551 00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:09,880 Speaker 4: able to do he doubled the say in North Carolina, 552 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:15,240 Speaker 4: doubled the blackmail vote from last time, especially the younger 553 00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 4: blackmail vote, and that makes a huge difference in these 554 00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:21,840 Speaker 4: swing states, a massive difference. If you could not only 555 00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:26,360 Speaker 4: increase your vote but start biding into those sectors where 556 00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:28,760 Speaker 4: the Democrats are counting on. You know, a lot of 557 00:29:28,800 --> 00:29:32,040 Speaker 4: these groups they take for granted and they didn't run 558 00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:35,200 Speaker 4: a campaign and it's really hurt them. 559 00:29:35,480 --> 00:29:39,200 Speaker 3: And for all the talk about Trump supporters or. 560 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:44,040 Speaker 4: She just was not a good candidate, nobody wants to 561 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:45,280 Speaker 4: address the elephant in the room. 562 00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:46,720 Speaker 3: She was not a good candidate. 563 00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,840 Speaker 4: And as my dad used to say to me when 564 00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,640 Speaker 4: he was supporting football teams, you can't win a Grand 565 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:54,600 Speaker 4: Prix in a Volkswagen. 566 00:29:58,440 --> 00:30:00,000 Speaker 2: Very quickly. What do you think this means you? 567 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:03,080 Speaker 1: And again one of the reasons why your analysis I 568 00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:04,800 Speaker 1: think is so good and spot honest. You're not a 569 00:30:04,840 --> 00:30:07,520 Speaker 1: sort of crazy right wing trumpet. You're a labor man. 570 00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:09,240 Speaker 1: You work for the Labour Party in Australia and have 571 00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:12,960 Speaker 1: done so the Democrat suppider. But what do you think 572 00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:16,719 Speaker 1: this means for Anthony Alberaneesi and Australian labor. What is 573 00:30:16,800 --> 00:30:20,960 Speaker 1: the number one take home lesson from Trump's victory. 574 00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:25,440 Speaker 4: A cost of living. So basically Trump had four or 575 00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:28,440 Speaker 4: five issues that he's stuck to. So a concert message, 576 00:30:28,480 --> 00:30:33,600 Speaker 4: he had immigration borders, he played the sort of transgender card, 577 00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:37,200 Speaker 4: the make America great again, but he also used the 578 00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:41,000 Speaker 4: line Biden nomics, and he talked throughout the campaign about 579 00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,840 Speaker 4: auto workers not taking the risk to buy or least 580 00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,840 Speaker 4: new cars because they weren't sure of the job. And 581 00:30:47,520 --> 00:30:51,800 Speaker 4: on the other side, the Democrats sort of didn't mention 582 00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,880 Speaker 4: at all costs of living or very rarely. They were 583 00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:59,840 Speaker 4: concentrating on Trump as a convicted felon. Yeah, that he's 584 00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:04,800 Speaker 4: a racist, that they're the ethical candidate, the ethical party. 585 00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,680 Speaker 4: This is new leadership, and they're trying to build a 586 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:12,800 Speaker 4: coalition that included, like you know, Liz Chainey, from everyone 587 00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:17,760 Speaker 4: to the leftist people, but the underlying feedback from even 588 00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,520 Speaker 4: I know we've just laid into the polls and exit poles, 589 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 4: but cost of living was a massive issue and I 590 00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:26,080 Speaker 4: think it's going to be a massive issue federally. And 591 00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 4: as someone in a labor puddy said to me, and 592 00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:32,960 Speaker 4: you're seeingior person danger for labor. They can't campaign on 593 00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,720 Speaker 4: cost of living like they're the opposition, So they have 594 00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:38,440 Speaker 4: to go and send the message that yes, it's a 595 00:31:38,520 --> 00:31:41,640 Speaker 4: huge problem cost of living, but at the same time, 596 00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:47,000 Speaker 4: we produce budget services, we've harved inflation, and these are 597 00:31:47,040 --> 00:31:49,800 Speaker 4: the measures we're taking. And it was the same thing 598 00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:53,360 Speaker 4: in America. They've actually done okay when it comes to 599 00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:57,800 Speaker 4: cost of living compared to some other countries, but they 600 00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:00,400 Speaker 4: didn't use that message at all, or didn't even mentioned 601 00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:01,080 Speaker 4: costs of moing. 602 00:32:01,240 --> 00:32:03,600 Speaker 1: And people who are suffering economically aren't going well at 603 00:32:03,680 --> 00:32:05,320 Speaker 1: least it's not as I'm not going as bad as 604 00:32:05,360 --> 00:32:08,160 Speaker 1: they are in the UK. If someone's hurting financially, they 605 00:32:08,160 --> 00:32:10,320 Speaker 1: are just hurting. They don't care if someone's hurting more 606 00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:13,040 Speaker 1: or if they're doing well relative to other things. And 607 00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:17,200 Speaker 1: I think, and again, like you say, if you can't say, look, actually, 608 00:32:17,200 --> 00:32:19,800 Speaker 1: these numbers are fantastic, everything's fine. If people are hurting. 609 00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:21,760 Speaker 1: People are hurting, you can't tell them everything's okay when 610 00:32:21,760 --> 00:32:23,240 Speaker 1: it's not. So you have to say, look, I know 611 00:32:23,360 --> 00:32:24,040 Speaker 1: you're suffering. 612 00:32:24,240 --> 00:32:24,480 Speaker 2: I know. 613 00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:26,680 Speaker 1: This is my job to fix it. I'm working like 614 00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:28,600 Speaker 1: a dog night and day to do that. And I 615 00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:30,840 Speaker 1: promise you it will get better. And here's what we're 616 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,040 Speaker 1: doing to make it get better. And this is what 617 00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:34,760 Speaker 1: is going to happen. And here is how we're going 618 00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:36,880 Speaker 1: to get you out of here. It has to be honest, 619 00:32:36,920 --> 00:32:41,040 Speaker 1: and it has to be with hard, concrete pathways out 620 00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:42,880 Speaker 1: of the hell hole that people feel they're in. 621 00:32:43,280 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 4: Yeah, and that's where I think she made a mistake 622 00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:47,520 Speaker 4: at the beginning. I think that's where she should have 623 00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:50,920 Speaker 4: thrown Joe Biden under the bus. And she should have said, 624 00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:56,240 Speaker 4: if you could make one distinction between yourself and Joe Biden, 625 00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:59,240 Speaker 4: and she's sort of there is nothing that comes to mind, 626 00:32:59,360 --> 00:33:03,320 Speaker 4: or I wouldn't because they're throwing Joe Biden under the 627 00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 4: bus today. If you look back, is there anything you 628 00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:09,840 Speaker 4: do differently? And she could have just said, look, obviously 629 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:11,960 Speaker 4: vice presidents when not in charge of a lot. But 630 00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,520 Speaker 4: what I should have done is, yeah, I knew the 631 00:33:14,520 --> 00:33:16,959 Speaker 4: cost of living problems. I should have gone into the 632 00:33:17,000 --> 00:33:19,680 Speaker 4: president I race at numerous times. But I should have 633 00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:23,680 Speaker 4: thought harder and that could have become a positive for her. 634 00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,520 Speaker 1: Well, Albo has a chance to fight harder right now, 635 00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:28,840 Speaker 1: so let's hope he does it between now in the election. 636 00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:33,120 Speaker 1: Tim Gleason, political savant, genius, prophet God. 637 00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:36,120 Speaker 2: Bless you, my friend. You're a true patriot. I am, indeed, 638 00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:37,400 Speaker 2: see my friend. 639 00:33:43,480 --> 00:33:46,760 Speaker 1: And finally, this week we have a question come in 640 00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:50,160 Speaker 1: for our question time segment, which always makes me very excited. 641 00:33:50,240 --> 00:33:52,880 Speaker 1: Make sure you're far off yours to the real story 642 00:33:52,920 --> 00:33:56,400 Speaker 1: at novapodcasts dot com dot Au and Ellie has done 643 00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:59,320 Speaker 1: just that. She has said, I'd love to know more 644 00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:02,400 Speaker 1: about this, Joe, and she's sent us a link from 645 00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:06,800 Speaker 1: the Daily Mail website, greatest news website in Australia. Just 646 00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,120 Speaker 1: absolutely fantastic. Sorry to all my friends and colleagues at 647 00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:11,080 Speaker 1: the Daily Telegraph, but come on, you're just not trying 648 00:34:11,120 --> 00:34:13,960 Speaker 1: hard enough, you know, not enough pictures of chicks and bikinis. 649 00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:17,120 Speaker 1: Come on, guys, lifty game anyway, So she's been in. 650 00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:21,479 Speaker 1: It's a story about Dick Smith, who is calling for 651 00:34:21,960 --> 00:34:26,080 Speaker 1: a limit to massive cuts to Australian immigration. With four 652 00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:28,480 Speaker 1: hundred thousand people coming in over the next twelve months 653 00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:31,160 Speaker 1: or so. He is saying this is catastrophic. It is 654 00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:34,879 Speaker 1: far too high and we need to cutcot cut now. 655 00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:40,120 Speaker 1: This was the number one issue in the US election campaign. 656 00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:44,640 Speaker 1: It is no secret that Donald Trump was vehemently anti immigration, 657 00:34:44,719 --> 00:34:48,160 Speaker 1: in particular illegal immigration, which is a real scourge in 658 00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:50,719 Speaker 1: the United States. It's a massive problem and no one 659 00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:53,960 Speaker 1: knows literally physically, what to do with it. They literally 660 00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,239 Speaker 1: don't have enough places to put. All the people who 661 00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:58,719 Speaker 1: are flooding over the border to the Southern States are 662 00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:02,480 Speaker 1: bussing them to northern States to you know, New York 663 00:35:02,520 --> 00:35:06,560 Speaker 1: and the Roosevelt Hotel. They literally become a refugee or 664 00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:09,919 Speaker 1: migrant whatever you want to call it, processing center. Once 665 00:35:09,920 --> 00:35:12,080 Speaker 1: a sort of you know, ritzy five star hotel, now 666 00:35:12,120 --> 00:35:14,040 Speaker 1: the breakfast buffet looks very different. 667 00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:16,680 Speaker 2: Point being, this is an issue. 668 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:19,640 Speaker 1: That voters care very, very passionately about, and it's an 669 00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,839 Speaker 1: issue that voters, especially on the kind of lower end 670 00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:27,400 Speaker 1: of the income scale, really really care about. And that 671 00:35:27,520 --> 00:35:30,160 Speaker 1: is because, of course, it's often their jobs that are 672 00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:34,400 Speaker 1: at risk these from these migrant workers. And it's low skilled, 673 00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:37,759 Speaker 1: low paid workers who are thinking, well, hang on, if 674 00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,960 Speaker 1: someone else comes in and they can just do my 675 00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:43,080 Speaker 1: job for cheaper, or they're prepared to do my job 676 00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:45,400 Speaker 1: for less, suddenly I'm out of work and I go 677 00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,040 Speaker 1: from low paid to no paid. So it is not 678 00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:52,680 Speaker 1: just rich right wing billionaires who are anti immigration. It's 679 00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:57,719 Speaker 1: often the poorest and most vulnerable workers in the country who. 680 00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:58,440 Speaker 2: Are worried about it. 681 00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:02,960 Speaker 1: And there is, however, a very prominent billionaire who is 682 00:36:03,080 --> 00:36:05,360 Speaker 1: very concerned about it, and that is Dick Smith. 683 00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:08,239 Speaker 2: And he has said, I think he's a billionaire, how's 684 00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:08,520 Speaker 2: he going? 685 00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:11,080 Speaker 1: It's going all right, Yeah, and Dick Smith has been 686 00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:13,319 Speaker 1: on this for a very long time and it's quite weird. 687 00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:15,959 Speaker 2: It comes from it kind of from an environmental point 688 00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:16,440 Speaker 2: of view. 689 00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:21,719 Speaker 1: Now, the real story behind Australia's migration boom isn't a 690 00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:25,520 Speaker 1: surge of illegal immigrants, you know, flooding the borders and 691 00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:28,440 Speaker 1: coming in. These are actually people we have planned to 692 00:36:28,520 --> 00:36:30,440 Speaker 1: bring into the country, and we're bringing them in for 693 00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:32,960 Speaker 1: a very specific reason. We're not bringing them in like 694 00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:35,440 Speaker 1: you know the open borders on the southern side of 695 00:36:35,480 --> 00:36:38,760 Speaker 1: the United States. You know, low skilled or no skilled 696 00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:41,200 Speaker 1: workers who are just running over the border and taking 697 00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:43,800 Speaker 1: their chances on getting work off on cash in handwork 698 00:36:43,800 --> 00:36:46,319 Speaker 1: in the brown economy in the US, which undercuts low 699 00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:50,520 Speaker 1: paid workers there. These are people who we have brought 700 00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:54,680 Speaker 1: in deliberately to fill skilled shortages that we have here 701 00:36:54,719 --> 00:36:56,680 Speaker 1: in Australia. So we've got these open jobs we literally 702 00:36:56,680 --> 00:36:58,399 Speaker 1: cannot find people to do them. 703 00:36:58,400 --> 00:36:58,640 Speaker 2: Here. 704 00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,239 Speaker 1: We've got very very low one employment rate and huge 705 00:37:01,239 --> 00:37:04,239 Speaker 1: amounts of demand and huge amounts of skilled jobs that 706 00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:06,600 Speaker 1: we need workers for which we just don't have enough of. 707 00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:10,960 Speaker 1: And these include things like age care workers and nurses. 708 00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:11,160 Speaker 2: Stuff like that. 709 00:37:11,200 --> 00:37:14,120 Speaker 1: So stuff literally, you know, saving people's lives, caring for people, 710 00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:16,080 Speaker 1: and we don't have another them, so that is why 711 00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:18,120 Speaker 1: we are bringing these people in. So it is a 712 00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:21,319 Speaker 1: different story to what the US is going through. One 713 00:37:21,320 --> 00:37:24,080 Speaker 1: of the concerns that people have is that these people 714 00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:26,120 Speaker 1: are going to need somewhere to live, obviously, and that 715 00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:28,600 Speaker 1: will drive up the price of housing and create an 716 00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:30,680 Speaker 1: even bigger housing shortage than the one we already have. 717 00:37:30,840 --> 00:37:35,440 Speaker 1: And again that is yes, very valid concern, but spoiler unfortunately, 718 00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,200 Speaker 1: one of the other areas of skill shortages that we 719 00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:41,920 Speaker 1: have is construction workers, so we actually have to bring 720 00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:46,719 Speaker 1: in workers to build the houses that we need, even 721 00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:49,160 Speaker 1: though in the meantime we will also need houses to 722 00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:52,520 Speaker 1: house the workers who are building the housing. So it's 723 00:37:52,560 --> 00:37:54,839 Speaker 1: a very very good point, Ellie, and it is something 724 00:37:54,840 --> 00:37:57,040 Speaker 1: that Australians are very rightly worried about. But it's a 725 00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:01,160 Speaker 1: very different type of immigration shoe than the one the 726 00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,399 Speaker 1: US has, and it's much more complex and oh, there's 727 00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:07,560 Speaker 1: too many people coming in and we don't have enough 728 00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:09,799 Speaker 1: houses for them, or you know, we don't have enough 729 00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:11,920 Speaker 1: jobs for them. In fact, we're bringing these people in 730 00:38:11,960 --> 00:38:14,960 Speaker 1: to build the houses and to fill the skill shortages 731 00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,360 Speaker 1: we need that will actually create more jobs in the 732 00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:20,200 Speaker 1: long run, because if you've got a shortage, you're creating 733 00:38:20,239 --> 00:38:23,600 Speaker 1: bottlenecks in the economy. So I hope that makes sense. 734 00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:26,439 Speaker 1: Another problem we have, of course, is that austral aren't 735 00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:30,120 Speaker 1: having enough babies, so we're actually bringing in migrants also 736 00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:33,600 Speaker 1: to make sure our population increases, because if the population 737 00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:36,440 Speaker 1: goes backwards, then that will likely cause some kind of recession, 738 00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,959 Speaker 1: there'll be collapse in economic growth, and that's a whole 739 00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:42,400 Speaker 1: other conversation. All I will say is I'm doing my part. 740 00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:45,239 Speaker 1: I've had three kids, one for one, one for dad, 741 00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:47,000 Speaker 1: and one for the country. Just like Treasure of Peter 742 00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:50,800 Speaker 1: Costello told us too before we started shoving around journos 743 00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:53,239 Speaker 1: in car Bucks. I liked him better when he was 744 00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:57,160 Speaker 1: the treasure of who. Anyway, that as is your question, Ali, 745 00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,279 Speaker 1: thank you very much for writing in anyone else, any 746 00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:01,000 Speaker 1: questions you want to ask, I said, Bang, I'm here 747 00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:05,920 Speaker 1: all day for it, and that is all we have 748 00:39:06,000 --> 00:39:08,520 Speaker 1: time for On the real story this week, I hope 749 00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:12,280 Speaker 1: you've enjoyed. It's been an absolute incredible week in news 750 00:39:12,320 --> 00:39:14,799 Speaker 1: and politics. You would have seen it coming a mile away. 751 00:39:14,840 --> 00:39:17,200 Speaker 1: If you've been listening to this podcast, So tell your 752 00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,440 Speaker 1: friends you want to find out what's really happening in 753 00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:22,760 Speaker 1: the world before it happens, while it happens. I promise 754 00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:25,080 Speaker 1: you I can tell you. I've got people blowing up 755 00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:27,160 Speaker 1: my phone all the time. I speak to people very 756 00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:29,279 Speaker 1: top and the very bottom, and I will do my 757 00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:32,960 Speaker 1: best to get you the real skinny on what's really happening. 758 00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:36,440 Speaker 1: Shoot us an email the real story at Nova podcast 759 00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:38,600 Speaker 1: dot com dot au, or you can send me a 760 00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:42,480 Speaker 1: message on Instagram at Joe Underscore Hildebrand. And of course 761 00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:44,920 Speaker 1: you can leave a review or just rate us. The 762 00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:47,600 Speaker 1: only rating our system excepts is the five star rating. 763 00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:49,320 Speaker 1: I wouldn't try any of the others. That'll insert a 764 00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:51,719 Speaker 1: virus on your computer and just terrible for you, So 765 00:39:51,880 --> 00:39:54,400 Speaker 1: just don't do that. God love you, God bless you, 766 00:39:54,440 --> 00:39:56,200 Speaker 1: and God bless the United States of America. 767 00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:57,000 Speaker 2: See you next week.