WEBVTT - Sharri | 7 April 0:00:01.320 --> 0:00:08.360 Why on Sky News this is Sharry Good Evening. Will 0:00:08.400 --> 0:00:12.240 tonight tumbling stock markets have sparked fears of a global recession. 0:00:12.640 --> 0:00:16.360 How will the erratic Trump effect influence our election campaign? 0:00:16.800 --> 0:00:20.640 I'll have more in just a moment. Also tonight, Albanezi's 0:00:20.640 --> 0:00:25.119 web of contradictions unravels. He's exposed as he scrambled to 0:00:25.239 --> 0:00:29.319 outmaneuver Dutton on the pot of Darwin announcement, and his 0:00:29.520 --> 0:00:34.200 bizarre denial of a stage fall only deepens questions around 0:00:34.200 --> 0:00:38.600 his credibility. Plus Chris Bowen's climate bill, why he's blown 0:00:38.720 --> 0:00:44.040 two hundred and sixty thousand dollars jet setting to ten countries, Well, 0:00:44.200 --> 0:00:46.440 you'd think he needs to answer questions about the climate 0:00:46.440 --> 0:00:50.840 emissions here, but he's not interested in any accountability, as 0:00:50.880 --> 0:00:55.360 one journalist from Channel seven discovered. And why hasn't that 0:00:55.440 --> 0:01:00.440 ABC covered the revised Gaza death toll. Israel's Unit Nation 0:01:00.560 --> 0:01:05.280 spokesman would join me live here in studio, But first, 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:08.200 As we enter the second week of the campaign, the 0:01:08.240 --> 0:01:11.880 world teeters on the edge of a potential global recession. 0:01:12.400 --> 0:01:15.920 Stock markets have suffered their steepest plunge since the height 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:20.919 of the pandemic, sending shockwaves through investor confidence and even 0:01:21.000 --> 0:01:26.440 igniting fears that new tariffs could trigger widespread defaults. This 0:01:26.600 --> 0:01:31.080 sudden economic turmoil couldn't have hit at a more politically 0:01:31.120 --> 0:01:36.080 sensitive time for us here in Australia, with political consequences 0:01:36.319 --> 0:01:41.040 as unpredictable as the events themselves. Right now, as we 0:01:41.200 --> 0:01:46.000 enter the second week, Dutton has fallen behind. The polls 0:01:46.080 --> 0:01:50.600 show Labor is perhaps in striking distance of winning government. 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:54.760 This was a sobering reality check for the opposition leader 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:58.360 and a wake up call for his inner sanctum, who 0:01:58.800 --> 0:02:03.960 told me today not panicking. Dutton is getting advice about 0:02:04.080 --> 0:02:10.000 sharpening his message, dumping unpopular policies and improving attack ads. 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:14.320 He's focusing on stepping up, but at the same time, 0:02:14.760 --> 0:02:20.280 the world around US unravels. The ASX lost four percent 0:02:20.320 --> 0:02:24.680 in value while the US markets fell six percent on Friday. 0:02:25.280 --> 0:02:29.600 Now for Australia, that's one hundred billion dollar wipeout on 0:02:29.639 --> 0:02:34.360 the AX. And the concern now is whether or not 0:02:34.960 --> 0:02:38.120 this will plunge US into a recession. It has the 0:02:38.160 --> 0:02:41.799 potential to reshape the race if this isn't just a 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:45.920 market shock, but if it continues into a deeper problem. 0:02:46.480 --> 0:02:50.520 Trump's tariffs triggered the financial market meltdown, and there's no 0:02:50.680 --> 0:02:54.440 sign the president's backing down. Here he was on Air 0:02:54.480 --> 0:02:58.760 Force one responding to questions about the stock market crash. 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:01.680 Going to happen with the market. I can't tell you 0:03:01.720 --> 0:03:04.400 what I can tell you. Our country has gotten a 0:03:04.400 --> 0:03:05.160 lot stronger. 0:03:05.240 --> 0:03:08.080 I don't want anything to go down, but sometimes you 0:03:08.120 --> 0:03:09.920 have to take medicine to fix something. 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:15.480 Take medicine. That's how he's seeing it. So he's standing firm. 0:03:15.919 --> 0:03:20.440 But The Wall Street Journal speculates that if markets continue 0:03:20.480 --> 0:03:24.840 in turmoil, or if a recession looms and his approval 0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:28.120 rating creators, the president may feel the need for a 0:03:28.160 --> 0:03:32.000 face saving escape route. That could be when he decides 0:03:32.040 --> 0:03:35.440 to spin his tariffs not as a permanent but as 0:03:35.480 --> 0:03:41.240 the genius negotiating strategy his apologists claim it is. Now. 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:45.080 Trump did promise, as the Wall Street Journal noted, he 0:03:45.120 --> 0:03:48.320 did promise a boom to working class of voters, and 0:03:48.440 --> 0:03:52.240 right now growth estimates are foley and some economists, including 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:57.000 those at JP Morgan, are now predicting a recession. You'd 0:03:57.040 --> 0:04:00.560 presume a recession wouldn't be a legacy that Trump hoping 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:04.640 for during his second term. Now, as we spoke about 0:04:04.800 --> 0:04:08.920 on Thursday. Trump is trying to return manufacturing to the 0:04:09.040 --> 0:04:12.400 United States, partly to deal with the threat of China. 0:04:13.200 --> 0:04:16.599 This is a long term strategy and the stock market 0:04:17.320 --> 0:04:21.159 volatility is not a surprise. But the question is whether 0:04:21.240 --> 0:04:25.520 this is simply a rocky blip or whether this could 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:30.200 deteriorate into a global recession. Now, the Wall Street Johnal 0:04:30.279 --> 0:04:33.960 Editorial Board continued to say that the Wall Street consensus 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:39.160 has been wrong before and nothing is foreordained. Trade retaliation 0:04:39.360 --> 0:04:43.880 could be less than feared, and Trump could change course, 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:50.800 but policymakers ignore market signals at their peril. Now back 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:55.640 to Australia, a global recession wouldn't eventuate during this shot 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:59.880 election campaign, but it could become obvious that that's where 0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:05.360 we are heading. If so, this completely reshapes the entire campaign. 0:05:05.920 --> 0:05:09.200 It plays into voters' minds when they're deciding how to 0:05:09.279 --> 0:05:14.200 cast their ballot. Dutton's team are confident that voters would 0:05:14.279 --> 0:05:17.920 turn to the coalition, believing that their best place to 0:05:18.040 --> 0:05:22.599 navigate an uncertain economic environment. But there is also a 0:05:22.680 --> 0:05:28.160 view that the global uncertainty benefits incumbency and thus in 0:05:28.200 --> 0:05:32.760 this instance Albanesi would benefit politically and there's a view 0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:38.559 that voters prefer left of center parties to deal with Trump. Now, 0:05:38.600 --> 0:05:42.400 as you know, Albanesi has already been trying to benefit 0:05:42.440 --> 0:05:48.200 politically by continually comparing Dutton to Trump, as the Finn 0:05:48.200 --> 0:05:52.600 Review says today, to paint Dutton as the Trumpian candidate. 0:05:53.600 --> 0:05:56.520 Like Labour's original medi scare, there is no substance to 0:05:56.520 --> 0:05:59.760 the claims being spread through social media. If Labour won 0:05:59.800 --> 0:06:02.520 the a and of such scare tactics, it would be 0:06:02.600 --> 0:06:08.839 crying misinformation. The Finn Review ultimately concluded in the editorial 0:06:08.880 --> 0:06:13.039 that while Labor has no compelling record on economic resilience 0:06:13.360 --> 0:06:17.200 to reward with the second term, the Trump effect could 0:06:17.400 --> 0:06:22.160 help sweep Elbow back into office and it makes Dutton's 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:27.479 task far more challenging. Treasurer Jim Chalmers today was already 0:06:27.680 --> 0:06:31.800 crafting the narrative that he's better place to handle a recession, 0:06:32.360 --> 0:06:35.359 which he warns is a real risk. 0:06:36.400 --> 0:06:36.640 Now. 0:06:37.080 --> 0:06:40.720 I find it interesting how the government can never comment 0:06:40.839 --> 0:06:44.960 on interest rate movements when they're in a rising cycle. 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:48.640 They cite the independence of the Reserve Bank, But of 0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:52.359 course during an election campaign this or changes and Charmers 0:06:52.400 --> 0:06:56.520 Today predicted up to four rate cuts. 0:06:56.880 --> 0:07:01.320 Markets are now expecting around four what interrast rate cuts 0:07:01.360 --> 0:07:06.520 are in Australia this calendar year. There's even a more 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:09.720 than even money expectation in the markets, more than fifty 0:07:09.720 --> 0:07:13.640 percent expectation in the markets that the next Reserve Bank 0:07:13.840 --> 0:07:16.880 interest rate cut in May might be as big as 0:07:16.880 --> 0:07:18.080 fifty basis. 0:07:17.720 --> 0:07:22.200 Points, and Treasury modeling shows there's expected to be a 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:26.280 hit on Australian GDP or SO prices. Although how much 0:07:26.280 --> 0:07:29.120 of this is because of Trump's tariffs and how much 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:34.160 of this are domestic factors is arguable. Economist Warren Hogan 0:07:34.280 --> 0:07:37.560 told me today that much of the impact in Australia 0:07:38.000 --> 0:07:41.880 is because of the Albanezy government and not the tariffs. 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:45.320 He spoke about other effects of the tariffs with Peter 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:46.280 Kradlin earlier. 0:07:47.680 --> 0:07:50.560 Yeah, Well, the markets are panicking and their response is 0:07:50.640 --> 0:07:54.680 pretty severe and pricing in not only a full rate 0:07:54.720 --> 0:07:56.880 cut in May, but a chance of a fifty point 0:07:56.920 --> 0:07:59.600 cut and then follow up cuts at every meeting. We're 0:07:59.640 --> 0:08:02.360 talking about four or five rate cuts taking the cash 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:03.600 right down to about three percent. 0:08:04.200 --> 0:08:05.120 Look, that could. 0:08:04.880 --> 0:08:07.600 Easily play out if the worst happens, if it's not 0:08:07.800 --> 0:08:11.960 a broader financial problem, if it's really just this tariff issue. 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:13.840 I think the RBA. 0:08:13.640 --> 0:08:17.280 Would be thinking about that. They've got two or three 0:08:17.360 --> 0:08:19.560 rate cuts up their sleeve that would take the rate 0:08:19.640 --> 0:08:21.960 down to three and a half, which they thinks about neutral. 0:08:23.200 --> 0:08:26.960 So it's against this backdrop that Dutton starts the second 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:30.400 week of the campaign. And yes he's behind, as we've canvassed, 0:08:30.760 --> 0:08:33.960 but there's still another four weeks to go. Today the 0:08:34.000 --> 0:08:37.200 news he dumped his policy to get workers back to 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:41.120 the office, at least public service workers in Canberra. It's 0:08:41.120 --> 0:08:45.040 precisely the same policy and it's New Southell's Premier Chris Mins, 0:08:45.360 --> 0:08:48.719 who's had very little backlash and who certainly hasn't been 0:08:48.760 --> 0:08:53.679 compared to Donald Trump. But Dutton was losing support, not 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:57.319 just with women as has been reported, but with families, 0:08:57.679 --> 0:09:00.120 and so he made the call to dump it. 0:09:01.400 --> 0:09:05.560 Are you conceding this policy was unpopular with female beliefs? 0:09:05.559 --> 0:09:07.480 But we've got it wrong, We've apologized for it. 0:09:07.760 --> 0:09:11.040 We support flexible workplace arrangements and our plan which was 0:09:11.040 --> 0:09:13.240 only ever targeted for the public service. 0:09:13.280 --> 0:09:15.719 In camera, Labour's been able to create into a. 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:19.720 Scare campaign and alban Easy of course, had nothing better 0:09:19.800 --> 0:09:22.480 to do or nothing better to announce than continue on 0:09:22.600 --> 0:09:26.320 with this scare campaign. He visited a family this morning 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:30.680 who worked from home in Melbourne, which was never part 0:09:30.720 --> 0:09:31.720 of Dutton's policy. 0:09:31.920 --> 0:09:40.640 In any case, Peter Dutton wants to undermine work rights 0:09:40.960 --> 0:09:45.280 and in particular doesn't understand modern families. Doesn't understand the 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:50.120 important role that women and men play in organizing their 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:57.319 families and organizing appropriate work conditions wherever it is possible. 0:09:59.000 --> 0:10:01.360 Just a side note there. I mean people criticize Peter 0:10:01.480 --> 0:10:04.160 Dutton for not being a good enough communicator. I mean, 0:10:04.360 --> 0:10:09.600 listen to the Prime minister. That's hardly a great orator. Now, 0:10:09.800 --> 0:10:13.640 despite what the Prime Minister says, changing policy isn't a 0:10:13.679 --> 0:10:17.959 negative thing. It's a brave admission that Dutton has listened 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:20.760 to the community and was prepared to change. It's a 0:10:20.840 --> 0:10:24.040 strength to admit that he got something wrong and then 0:10:24.160 --> 0:10:28.719 changed courts. He was transparent and public about it. I mean, 0:10:28.760 --> 0:10:32.480 you think of the contrast with Albinizi. He's never apologized 0:10:32.559 --> 0:10:36.079 or admitted to getting anything wrong in his arrogance. It's 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:40.560 always someone else's fault and someone else's responsibility, and his 0:10:40.720 --> 0:10:44.600 arrogance is bizarre when he's not particularly clever and doesn't 0:10:44.640 --> 0:10:48.040 work hard enough to get across the detail. I'd bet 0:10:48.080 --> 0:10:51.680 he was probably a Grade C student at school. Not 0:10:51.800 --> 0:10:56.240 exactly the genius you'd want running our country. But more 0:10:56.240 --> 0:11:02.800 worryingly is Albanzi's character and integrity. He lies about major 0:11:02.880 --> 0:11:06.640 things like the Port of Darwin decision and tiny things 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:10.360 like whether or not he fell off the stage. Now 0:11:10.400 --> 0:11:13.320 on the Port of Darwin, Albanize he heard that Dartin 0:11:13.400 --> 0:11:16.400 was about to make an announcement that the Coalition would 0:11:16.760 --> 0:11:19.920 buy back the lease. That was thanks to the leak 0:11:20.160 --> 0:11:24.480 of a labor friendly journalist, but Albanize he heard about it, 0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:27.960 and so he quickly rang into a local Darwin radio 0:11:28.000 --> 0:11:33.440 station to gazump Dutton's announcement. But the radio announcer was 0:11:33.520 --> 0:11:35.720 too smart and smelled a rat. 0:11:36.720 --> 0:11:39.800 I've gotten a little bit lost here. You've flagged the 0:11:39.840 --> 0:11:44.480 Coalition making an announcement tomorrow that the Coalition are going 0:11:44.520 --> 0:11:47.880 to say that they'll buy the lease back. But you're 0:11:47.920 --> 0:11:49.440 not making that announcement today. 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:54.840 You bet we will. We've been working on on this 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:56.000 issue for some. 0:11:56.120 --> 0:11:58.600 Time, so I just need to be clear. Here are 0:11:58.600 --> 0:12:03.000 you announcing that the Labor government will buy back the 0:12:03.520 --> 0:12:05.479 port of Doowen? Lease off Lambridge. 0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:10.520 What we are doing is we will enter into negotiations 0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:14.440 to do that. That is what we've been doing informally 0:12:15.280 --> 0:12:18.400 through potential buyers up to this point already. 0:12:18.600 --> 0:12:20.760 So are you buying back the lease of the Port 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:21.439 of Darwen or not. 0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:25.600 Well, what we're doing is trying to get to see 0:12:25.600 --> 0:12:30.640 if there's a private buyer through particularly superannuation funds that 0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:35.880 we've had discussions with. They have sanded out Landbridge as well. 0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:39.040 We want that to be the case, but we want it. 0:12:40.360 --> 0:12:42.679 And it went on. I mean, she's far better than 0:12:42.720 --> 0:12:45.600 the average press gallery journalist that Albin Eazi is used 0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:46.319 to have a listen. 0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:50.080 So you're making sure you have a buyer first before 0:12:50.120 --> 0:12:53.040 you announce those plans. 0:12:53.280 --> 0:12:55.600 Well, we want it to be in Australian hands. We 0:12:55.720 --> 0:13:00.640 prefer that it be through superannuation funds or some their vehicle. 0:13:00.960 --> 0:13:04.600 So when might you have a clearer idea about whether 0:13:04.640 --> 0:13:07.480 you have a buyer or not and whether this is 0:13:07.480 --> 0:13:10.560 a plan that you are proceeding with. Will you have 0:13:10.600 --> 0:13:14.520 those details during this election campaign prior to the third 0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:17.360 of May. Will you be able to tell us we 0:13:17.480 --> 0:13:19.240 are buying back the port and this is how we're 0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:19.760 going to do it. 0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:24.199 We certainly will enter into those discussions, and the Northern 0:13:24.280 --> 0:13:27.600 Territory government have had discussions with us as well. We'll 0:13:27.600 --> 0:13:31.080 have more to say over the coming period before the 0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:31.720 third of May. 0:13:31.800 --> 0:13:35.880 Yeah, we have covered that. I'm just wondering how much 0:13:35.960 --> 0:13:39.520 the federal government would be willing to contribute to buy 0:13:39.600 --> 0:13:40.680 back the Port of Darwin. 0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:45.960 Well, what you don't do is negotiate through a radio station. 0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:49.520 If you don't negotiate through a radio station, then why 0:13:49.559 --> 0:13:52.160 are you ringing one up. Well, it's because it was 0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:54.720 trying to scuff a Dozen's announcement to return the Port 0:13:54.760 --> 0:13:58.480 of Darwin to Australian ownership. Now, these were questions he 0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:01.000 should have been expecting, but of course he hadn't worked 0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:04.360 them through because he only did that interview when he 0:14:04.400 --> 0:14:08.400 got wind of Dutton's press conference the next day. But 0:14:08.840 --> 0:14:11.760 here's another interesting thing. What you just heard from alban 0:14:11.800 --> 0:14:15.800 Easy was the precise opposite of what he said just 0:14:16.240 --> 0:14:20.120 eighteen months ago. In October twenty twenty three, alban Easy 0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:24.840 said he accepted a report of his own agency that 0:14:24.880 --> 0:14:28.360 the Chinese Link Company could continue to operate the lease. 0:14:28.640 --> 0:14:31.480 And he says, and I quote, that the issue had 0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:36.160 now been resolved. Game over. Here's what he said. He said, 0:14:36.200 --> 0:14:39.160 and we've accepted that report rather than have to lay 0:14:39.200 --> 0:14:42.960 out a considerable compensation cost, which would have been applicable 0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:46.440 if there was any forced intervention and forced sale by 0:14:46.480 --> 0:14:51.440 the Commonwealth. So that issue has now been resolved. There 0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:56.000 won't be an intervention for any forced sale. It was 0:14:56.400 --> 0:15:01.000 categoric about it. That was October twenty three, just a 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:03.720 year and a half ago. But now when he got 0:15:03.720 --> 0:15:07.880 winned that Dutton was announcing a sale, he changed his tune. 0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:11.800 He claimed he'd already been working on this. So compare 0:15:11.840 --> 0:15:15.440 the comments you just heard game over or resolved to 0:15:15.560 --> 0:15:16.440 what he says now. 0:15:17.680 --> 0:15:20.440 The idea that you would have the major port in 0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:25.960 Northern Australia owned by any foreign interest is not in 0:15:26.120 --> 0:15:27.680 Australia's national interest. 0:15:29.200 --> 0:15:33.760 Alban Easy refuses to even acknowledge he's backtracked, let alone 0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:36.680 admit to a one point eighty shift in position. He's 0:15:36.720 --> 0:15:41.480 so consumed without foxing Dutton, so fixated on stealing his 0:15:41.560 --> 0:15:45.400 thunder over the pot of Darwin, that substance and well 0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:48.960 thought out policy has taken a back seat to cheap 0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:53.720 tricks and tactics. His superficial answers in that radio interview 0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:59.160 exposed a hollow narrative from a hollow man. Voters are 0:15:59.200 --> 0:16:03.080 paying attention, and that's an if. If voters are paying attention, 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:07.520 if they look beyond the headlines, then Albanez's lack of 0:16:07.560 --> 0:16:11.640 integrity an obsession with spin will be his own undoing 0:16:12.320 --> 0:16:15.320 Yet right now, while Dutton is trying to find his 0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:19.080 rhythm in the first election campaign as leader, Trump has 0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:23.200 lobbed a political grenade into the mix, a wild card 0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:27.840 so volatile that its impact on the election campaign remains 0:16:28.000 --> 0:16:35.520 anyone's guess. I'm going to have full political analysis in 0:16:35.560 --> 0:16:38.000 a moment, but right now, let's return to the market 0:16:38.080 --> 0:16:41.280 blood bath sparked by Trump's trade tariffs. As I just 0:16:41.440 --> 0:16:43.640 told you, up to one hundred billion dollars has been 0:16:43.680 --> 0:16:47.200 wiped off the ASX. The Asian markets hit as well. 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:51.640 Former Treasury sick Assistant Secretary David Pearl joins me for 0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:54.160 his view. David, thank you so much for your time 0:16:54.200 --> 0:16:57.080 again on the show. The big question is whether the 0:16:57.080 --> 0:17:01.200 stock markets will settle, whether this is just the volatility 0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:04.800 that Trump warned about, or whether this could escalate into 0:17:04.840 --> 0:17:06.960 a global recession. What's your view. 0:17:09.000 --> 0:17:11.000 My view, Shari, and thanks for having me on, is 0:17:11.000 --> 0:17:14.439 that nobody knows. There are so many uncertainties at the moment. 0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:20.280 One scenario is the Trump backtracks very quickly. I'm not 0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:22.639 sure that's going to happen, but that would probably be 0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:27.560 the benign one. Another scenario is for China and other 0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:30.880 major economies to start to negotiate quickly with the US. 0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:34.199 I think that would not be ideal for markets, but 0:17:34.280 --> 0:17:37.040 it would be a midway. And then the third scenario, 0:17:37.080 --> 0:17:41.680 which you can't discount, Shari, is for trade tensions to escalate, 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:45.560 for China and others to stick to their retaliation, and 0:17:45.640 --> 0:17:51.080 for markets, both financial markets and equity markets generally to 0:17:51.119 --> 0:17:54.560 be far more affected than they have already. So nobody knows, Shari. 0:17:55.200 --> 0:17:58.680 We're in a situation of deep uncertainty for. 0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:02.680 US in Australia as seen already and impact on our 0:18:02.760 --> 0:18:07.160 currency down to sixty cents summer, estimating that this could 0:18:07.200 --> 0:18:10.639 fall even too fifty cents. Do you think that's possible. 0:18:12.400 --> 0:18:15.920 It is possible, you might recall, and reviewers might recall it. 0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:19.800 When the Asian financial crisis hit in nineteen ninety eight 0:18:19.880 --> 0:18:24.119 from memory, that had a major negative effect on commodity 0:18:24.160 --> 0:18:28.480 prices and Australian exports and the big depreciation of our currency, 0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:32.919 our freely floating currency then really provided a cushion for 0:18:33.040 --> 0:18:36.560 our commodity exporters and for the economy and helped us 0:18:36.720 --> 0:18:39.920 get through. So it's not a bad thing that the 0:18:39.960 --> 0:18:44.159 economy that the exchange rate is adjusting like it is. 0:18:44.280 --> 0:18:46.680 In fact, it should be the first line of defense 0:18:47.160 --> 0:18:51.160 for this uncertainty and market turbulence, rather than any panicked 0:18:51.160 --> 0:18:56.960 response from the RBA, which I interpreted Jim Charmers today encouraging. 0:18:58.520 --> 0:19:01.440 I mean, I feel it's hard to ask you about 0:19:01.480 --> 0:19:03.879 predictions because, as you started off by saying, we just 0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:09.480 don't know how international markets and how other countries are 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:11.879 going to react, whether they will retaliate or not. But 0:19:12.400 --> 0:19:16.280 you know, at this point in time, at least if 0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:20.280 there is a deepening problem. You know, the Treasure today 0:19:20.320 --> 0:19:23.600 spoke about up to four interest rate cuts, So you know, 0:19:23.720 --> 0:19:27.360 do you think that he was being overly alarmist or 0:19:27.400 --> 0:19:29.960 is this a realistic proposition that things could get so 0:19:30.160 --> 0:19:33.000 bad we're looking at four rate cuts this year? 0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:34.919 I think the. 0:19:34.920 --> 0:19:37.760 Treasure is being a market compentator, which seems to be 0:19:37.840 --> 0:19:40.600 the role he likes. I think it's appalling practice for 0:19:40.680 --> 0:19:46.760 a treasurer to basically blithely refer to financial markets panicked 0:19:46.800 --> 0:19:50.120 prediction that we're going to have fifty basis points off 0:19:50.119 --> 0:19:53.720 the cash rate in May and maybe one percent off 0:19:53.760 --> 0:19:55.160 the cash rate by the end of the year. 0:19:55.760 --> 0:19:56.640 We don't know that. 0:19:57.000 --> 0:19:57.760 Let's go back to. 0:19:59.600 --> 0:19:59.879 Power. 0:20:00.119 --> 0:20:02.679 The US FED chairman, he gave a very important speech 0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:08.120 on Friday Sharry where he refused to offer FED support 0:20:08.440 --> 0:20:12.119 to rescue Wall Street, as he should have, and he 0:20:12.240 --> 0:20:16.920 said that the FED had time to wait for incoming 0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:21.679 data on inflation and activity, and he referred to the 0:20:21.800 --> 0:20:26.760 heightened risks of inflation and inflationary expectations. So by no 0:20:26.880 --> 0:20:33.400 means was he for fing a willingness to come in, 0:20:33.440 --> 0:20:37.320 but he didn't want to overreact and react before the data. 0:20:37.400 --> 0:20:42.800 And I think that the RBA Board should adopt Jerome 0:20:42.840 --> 0:20:47.119 Powell's playbook there now. If later in the year the 0:20:47.200 --> 0:20:51.080 data starts to indicate that economic activity is slowing or 0:20:51.119 --> 0:20:53.960 price pressures arising, then it might be appropriate for the 0:20:53.960 --> 0:20:56.280 Board to act. But I don't think, or at least 0:20:56.280 --> 0:20:58.960 it's my opinion, that the Board should not be taking 0:20:58.960 --> 0:21:01.960 a lead from financial market players who are frankly panicking, 0:21:02.080 --> 0:21:05.520 understand why they are, but they shouldn't be the guide 0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:06.760 for Munchi policy now. 0:21:07.280 --> 0:21:10.679 No, indeed, Sage Advice. Thank you very much for your 0:21:10.720 --> 0:21:13.840 time as always, David Pearl, thank you so much. All right, 0:21:13.920 --> 0:21:16.760 so the message there no need to panic at this 0:21:16.960 --> 0:21:20.120 point in time. Let's wait and see. All right, let's 0:21:20.359 --> 0:21:23.080 return to the political headlines today and for more analysis 0:21:23.119 --> 0:21:25.119 on where this election is headed. Let's bring in the 0:21:25.160 --> 0:21:29.879 Australians Chief political correspondent Jeff Chambers and Daily Telegraph journalist 0:21:29.960 --> 0:21:32.800 James Willis. Thank you both so much. Great to see you. 0:21:33.760 --> 0:21:36.439 So the big story of course today front page of 0:21:36.960 --> 0:21:42.160 your paper, James, is that Dutton has dumped this policy 0:21:42.200 --> 0:21:45.520 which was actually just to get Canberra public servants back 0:21:45.560 --> 0:21:48.359 to work, but the way that Labor was selling this 0:21:48.680 --> 0:21:51.919 it became this big scare campaign. Families were worried that 0:21:51.960 --> 0:21:56.159 they wouldn't have the flexibility in their work life arrangements 0:21:56.160 --> 0:21:58.320 any longer. Do you think he had no choice but 0:21:58.440 --> 0:21:58.960 to dump this? 0:21:59.280 --> 0:21:59.440 Well? 0:21:59.440 --> 0:22:01.119 What I do like and I agree with what you 0:22:01.160 --> 0:22:03.399 said off the top, that it is refreshing for a 0:22:03.440 --> 0:22:06.560 politician to come out as soon as he identifies a 0:22:06.560 --> 0:22:08.640 problem and say hey, look I got this one wrong 0:22:09.040 --> 0:22:10.919 and we're going to go in a different direction. So 0:22:10.960 --> 0:22:13.880 I think that was a really refreshing take. We don't 0:22:13.880 --> 0:22:16.560 always see that from the Prime Minister, if ever, and 0:22:16.680 --> 0:22:20.000 other labor politicians working from home and the way that 0:22:20.080 --> 0:22:24.280 they have tried to attack and politicize the public service. 0:22:24.880 --> 0:22:27.720 It's been a really really interesting one to watch unfold 0:22:27.760 --> 0:22:30.760 because I think if most people saw the numbers of 0:22:30.880 --> 0:22:33.240 increases in public servants and the cost of the public 0:22:33.320 --> 0:22:36.920 service and what the Australian economy and our society looks like, 0:22:36.960 --> 0:22:39.439 you'd be saying, well, something has to give there. But 0:22:40.160 --> 0:22:42.399 I don't think they argue this the right way, Shari, 0:22:42.520 --> 0:22:44.000 and I think they could have said there's going to 0:22:44.000 --> 0:22:47.199 be a fifteen percent cut to the public service in 0:22:47.320 --> 0:22:49.920 every department in the same way that we have had 0:22:49.960 --> 0:22:52.159 for most businesses in this country. You're going to have 0:22:52.200 --> 0:22:54.960 to make productivity gains across the board. But when we 0:22:54.960 --> 0:22:58.520 started talking about sacking people, we started talking about forcing 0:22:58.560 --> 0:23:00.760 people back to the office working from home as a 0:23:00.760 --> 0:23:03.359 tricky one. Most of us would agree that we should 0:23:03.359 --> 0:23:05.040 be back in the office by now, but there's a 0:23:05.040 --> 0:23:07.639 lot of people out there that are voting that don't 0:23:07.640 --> 0:23:09.639 agree with it and want working from home as part 0:23:09.680 --> 0:23:10.240 of their life. 0:23:10.359 --> 0:23:12.200 Yeah, and I think it's going to be a balance, 0:23:12.200 --> 0:23:15.280 particularly with mothers. But Jeff, that was part of the 0:23:15.320 --> 0:23:17.920 fact that not all families liked it. But the other 0:23:17.960 --> 0:23:19.679 part of the picture was that it was you know, 0:23:19.720 --> 0:23:23.440 this policy played into Albanese's attempts to paint Dutton as 0:23:23.560 --> 0:23:27.520 Trump liked and this is a liability for the coalition. 0:23:29.480 --> 0:23:31.919 Oh hi, Sharry, Yeah, it's really proving to be a 0:23:31.960 --> 0:23:34.240 liability and it's really cutting through. 0:23:35.080 --> 0:23:37.560 You know, they're really trying the labors framing up. 0:23:37.720 --> 0:23:40.600 As they do best in terms of their attack hit jobs, 0:23:41.160 --> 0:23:45.320 Peter Dutton as a mini Trump. But the facts of 0:23:45.359 --> 0:23:48.760 the matter is that the public service policies. 0:23:49.880 --> 0:23:51.360 Were very focused and targeted. 0:23:51.400 --> 0:23:53.440 I think the problem for the Liberal Party and by 0:23:53.480 --> 0:23:55.960 the way, this dumping of this policy has been in 0:23:56.000 --> 0:23:58.280 the works for a few weeks now and there are 0:23:58.280 --> 0:24:00.359 some internally who are saying that this should have happened 0:24:00.359 --> 0:24:03.480 before the election campaign started. I think the issue was 0:24:03.520 --> 0:24:06.199 you had too many people talking about little elements of 0:24:06.240 --> 0:24:09.560 it rather than a definitive policy that was put out 0:24:09.920 --> 0:24:12.639 and once you do that little piece Bill bits and 0:24:12.680 --> 0:24:16.520 pieces of policy. It allows your opponents to really weaponize 0:24:18.000 --> 0:24:19.120 various elements of it. 0:24:20.240 --> 0:24:22.000 Well, let's have a look at the polling that has 0:24:22.080 --> 0:24:25.920 got so many people concerned. Today Newspoll had Labor ahead 0:24:26.040 --> 0:24:29.280 fifty two to forty eight on a two pp basis. 0:24:29.760 --> 0:24:35.160 The coalition's primary vote had dropped by one point. James, 0:24:35.280 --> 0:24:38.959