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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. The Reserve Bank has opened

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Speaker 1: the door to a rate cut next year, saying inflation

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Speaker 1: is falling. One of the biggest deals of the years,

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Speaker 1: teetering on the brink after one of the companies gets

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Speaker 1: hits with a massive tax bill, and Google announces the

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Speaker 1: most searched terms and issues for twenty twenty four, plus

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Speaker 1: plenty going on in markets, and Rupert Murdoch fails to

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Speaker 1: change the Family Trust. Welcome to Fear and Greed, daily

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Speaker 1: business news for people who make their own decisions. It

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Speaker 1: is Wednesday, the eleventh of December twenty twenty four. I'm

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Speaker 1: Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer. Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. The Reserve Bank of Australia

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Speaker 1: has left the benchmark interest rate on hold at a

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Speaker 1: twelve year high, as everyone expected, but there are signs

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Speaker 1: that maybe, just maybe they are starting to think more

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Speaker 1: about a rate cut.

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Speaker 2: Sean, maybe, Michael, maybe. Governor Michelle Bullet said the economy

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Speaker 2: is moving in line with the Reserve Bank's forecasts and

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Speaker 2: if that continues, at some point inflation will move back

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Speaker 2: into the target band and at that point the Board

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Speaker 2: of the Bank will consider cutting rates. She's still very

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Speaker 2: focused on what the data says, and she wants to

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Speaker 2: see two quarters of lower inflation. Data didn't give any

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Speaker 2: timing for any shift in rate cuts, and she said

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Speaker 2: the Board didn't explicitly explicitly discuss cutting rates when it

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Speaker 2: met over the past few days. However, she also said

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Speaker 2: the Board deliberately dropped any mention of rate hikes in

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Speaker 2: the statement that accompanies the end of the board meeting,

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Speaker 2: and that's because economic data is softer. In Reserve Bank speak,

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Speaker 2: when you add something or take it away, it is significant,

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Speaker 2: So rate hikes are off the agenda. All important in

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Speaker 2: this In late January, we get the December quarter inflation data,

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Speaker 2: we get unemployment figures, a couple of those in the

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Speaker 2: next couple of months. We also get business survey data. Now,

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Speaker 2: yesterday figures from National Australia Bank showed that business conditions

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Speaker 2: and sentiment well, sentiment's actually quite weak and conditions are

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Speaker 2: just pottering along. We've had thirteen months with the benchmarkt

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Speaker 2: four point three five percent. If we can look at

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Speaker 2: the business survey data, the employment market, the inflation data,

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Speaker 2: if it all softens, maybe, just maybe we get a

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Speaker 2: rate cut. One other interesting thing. In her press conference

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Speaker 2: yesterday she was us about the incoming Trump administration. Michelle

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Speaker 2: Block said tariff's and government spending in the US could

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Speaker 2: be inflationary for that country, though it may not impact

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Speaker 2: Australia too much directly. However, the brewing trade war between

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Speaker 2: the US and China is more of a concern.

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Speaker 1: Sean, I've got to mention a must listen interview that

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Speaker 1: we have coming up after the show. You're speaking today

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Speaker 1: with Warren Hogan, who's the managing director of EQ Economics,

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Speaker 1: economic advisor at Judo Bank, and he has a very fair,

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Speaker 1: very good track record for picking what rates are going

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Speaker 1: to do.

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Speaker 2: And if you are hoping interest rates are going to

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Speaker 2: four over the next twelve months, then maybe Warren's not

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Speaker 2: your man. But as you said, he's done a great

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Speaker 2: job in picking where interest rates are going. Now he

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Speaker 2: says there might be a rate cut, but it won't

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Speaker 2: be to the middle of next year, and he's not

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Speaker 2: even sure that we're going to get one then, so

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Speaker 2: well worth listen. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, just coming up a bit later on after the show, Sean,

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Speaker 1: how did financial markets react to not just the Reserve

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Speaker 1: Bank decision, but the commentary around that.

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Speaker 2: Decision, Yeah, I mean that's almost more significant. Bond traders

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Speaker 2: have now ascribed a fifty percent chance of a rate

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Speaker 2: cut in February next year and one hundred percent by April.

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Speaker 2: The Aussie dollar, which was training above sixty four US cents,

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Speaker 2: drop back below that mark immediately after the two thirty

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Speaker 2: PM announcement. Now, in the short term, the Aussie dollar

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Speaker 2: depends or goes up and down depending on what people

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Speaker 2: think will happen on interest rates. If rates are expected

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Speaker 2: to fall, than that puts the Aussie dollar under pressure

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Speaker 2: against the US dollar. And that's exactly what happened yesterday.

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Speaker 2: And what about the AX what happened there, Well, it

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Speaker 2: had been trading quite a bit lower, and then the

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Speaker 2: announcement it came. By the close, it was only down,

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Speaker 2: was less down less than half a percent by the end,

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Speaker 2: eighty three hundred and ninety three points. Plenty going on

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Speaker 2: in the market, quite apart from the Reserve Bank announcement.

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Speaker 2: The tech sector tumbled most yesterday, down more than four percent.

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Speaker 2: That index. Now there was a big sell off in

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Speaker 2: pro Medicus, for example, it ended up down eight and

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Speaker 2: a half percent. It has run very very hard. Maybe

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Speaker 2: there's some profit taking going on, so it gets to

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Speaker 2: a level where people think, Okay, it's gotten so high,

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Speaker 2: we may as well take some money for the table

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Speaker 2: and sell at this point. Certainly, the company didn't release

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Speaker 2: any new news yesterday. Other tech stocks such as Weistet

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Speaker 2: Global Zero and Ria Group also fell sharply. The banks

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Speaker 2: were lower. National Australia or a Bank It was off

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Speaker 2: only three percent. Westpak was off more than two percent.

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Speaker 2: The big winners, though, were the miners, on the back

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Speaker 2: of more upbeat news out of Beijing. More on that.

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Speaker 2: In a moment, First Few Medals Group jumped six and

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Speaker 2: a half percent. Rare It was up five percent, BHP

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Speaker 2: more than three percent. In terms of corporate news, Treasury

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Speaker 2: win Estates bought a group called Stone and Moon. It's

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Speaker 2: a winery in northeastern China, for about twenty seven and

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Speaker 2: a half million dollars. Its share price jumped on the

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Speaker 2: back of that. Platinum Asset Management fell another three percent yesterday.

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Speaker 2: Now on Monday, Regal Partners came out and said we're

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Speaker 2: not going to buy a Platinum Asset Management, though doing

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Speaker 2: due diligence on it. Platinum then tumbled seven eight percent

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Speaker 2: on Monday, another three percent yesterday not good for them,

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Speaker 2: and MAYA held its annual general meeting yesterday. Chair Olivia

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Speaker 2: Worth said Black Friday sales were encouraging, although it's been

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Speaker 2: a challenging start to the retail year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk about China quickly, Sean. You mentioned the

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Speaker 1: strong performance of the big miners, and that was on

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Speaker 1: the back of hopes that Beijing is about to unveil

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Speaker 1: further stimulus for the world's second largest economy.

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Speaker 2: So China's Poll Up Bureau Parliament, let's say, said it

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Speaker 2: would embrace a moderately loose strategy for monetary policy next

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Speaker 2: year and a more proactive fiscal policy. Beijing has made

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Speaker 2: a bunch of small stimulatory moves over the past three

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Speaker 2: months in terms of interest rates, which is monetary policy,

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Speaker 2: and fiscal policy, which is spending. Hasn't had a big bang,

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Speaker 2: But those comments yesterday suggest that even if we're not

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Speaker 2: can get a big bang, there's still going to be

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Speaker 2: plenty more coming down the pipeline. And that's what really

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Speaker 2: got iron ore mine as excited. Yesterday, for example, also

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Speaker 2: helped push oil prices higher. Otherwise, in globle markets, bitcoins

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Speaker 2: fall them back to about ninety five thousand US dollars

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Speaker 2: a unit, still very high, but it just keeps getting

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Speaker 2: to that one hundred thousand dollars a unit mark and

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Speaker 2: then falls back. Now, it crossed it last week. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: it's tested that a few times since then, but just

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Speaker 2: can't seem to get across the line.

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Speaker 1: All right, Sean, We've got plenty still to cover. We're

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Speaker 1: talking Rupert Murdoch's legal battle, We're talking Woolworths, more bad

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Speaker 1: news for Wallies, and Google's search terms the top terms

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Speaker 1: for the year. Pretty much as you'd expect, but maybe

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Speaker 1: maybe a few surprises. We'll be back in a moment

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Speaker 1: with the rest of the day's business news, Sean. Rupert

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Speaker 1: Murdoch has failed in his attempt to change the terms

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Speaker 1: of a family trust that would have ensured that his

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Speaker 1: eldest son, Lachlan, gained control of the family media empire

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Speaker 1: when Rupert dies.

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Speaker 2: That empire that's Fox News, Wall Street Journal, New York Post,

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Speaker 2: The Australian Daily Telegraph, Sky News Australia is a very

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Speaker 2: influential organization. Now. When Nevada court ruled against the ninety

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Speaker 2: three year old mister Murdoch, rejecting arguments that it would

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Speaker 2: be better for the whole family if Lachlan oversaw the business.

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Speaker 2: Lachlan is currently chair of News Corps. He's more conservative

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Speaker 2: than his siblings, that being James, Elizabeth, and Prudence, all

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Speaker 2: the siblings. The Rupert Murdoch argument was that the News

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Speaker 2: Corp empire would be more successful if it remains with

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Speaker 2: a conservative bent, and Lachlan is better equipped to do that. However,

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Speaker 2: according to The New York Times, the Nevada Commissioner characterized

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Speaker 2: the plan as a quote carefully crafted charade in quote

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Speaker 2: to permanently cement Lochlan Murdoch's executive roles inside the empire,

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Speaker 2: regardless of the impact such control would have over the

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Speaker 2: companies or the beneficiaries of the family trust.

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Speaker 1: Did you see, Sean, some of the coverage about this

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Speaker 1: talking about the role that the TV shows Succession played

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Speaker 1: in this, which I just thought was fascinating because obviously

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Speaker 1: there's a it is believed that the TV show Succession

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Speaker 1: is loosely based on the Murdoch family and the Empire,

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Speaker 1: and that, you know, kind of a weird, kind of

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Speaker 1: circular way that an episode of Succession actually inspired action

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Speaker 1: within the Murdoch found to start taking some steps to

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Speaker 1: kind of preserve the family and just plan ahead for

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Speaker 1: what might happen in the future without spoiling anything to

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Speaker 1: do with the TV show. But I just think it's

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Speaker 1: funny that the TV show that was arguably about the

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Speaker 1: Murdox has actually then inspired the Murdos to take some

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Speaker 1: action based on that TV.

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Speaker 2: Show Allegedly Michael allegedly.

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Speaker 1: Allegedly allegedly yes, good.

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Speaker 2: Point, wortedly or something yes.

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Speaker 1: Now showing fund manager Perpetual could be hit with a

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Speaker 1: tax bill of more than five hundred million dollars over

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Speaker 1: the sale of assets to private equity group KKR, potentially

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Speaker 1: halting the two point two billion dollar deal.

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Speaker 2: Certainly investors things so Perpetual share price fell nine percent yesterday.

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Speaker 2: The Tax Office has queried the sale of some affts

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Speaker 2: of some assets to KKR. The transaction, which still needs

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Speaker 2: shareholder approval, gives KKR the Perpetual name, its corporate trust

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Speaker 2: and its wealth management businesses. They're considered the best of

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Speaker 2: the Perpetual businesses. Yesterday, Perpetual came out and said the

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Speaker 2: revised tax bill is closer to five hundred million dollars

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Speaker 2: rather than the one hundred and six to two hundred

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Speaker 2: and twenty seven million dollar range disclosed in August. What's

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Speaker 2: that mean for shareholders? In dollar terms? It means the

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Speaker 2: bid by KKR is worth about six dollars eight a

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Speaker 2: share rather than the previous indication of nine dollars ten

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Speaker 2: a share. Now, when a statement Perpetual said it is

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Speaker 2: extremely disappointed, disagrees with the ATOS view a bit to

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Speaker 2: play out, but you can imagine if shareholders think they're

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Speaker 2: getting six dollars not nine dollars a share, well, that

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Speaker 2: puts the whole bid certainly on night and it may

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Speaker 2: cause it to slip on that ice.

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Speaker 1: Shaan. In politics, there's a storm brewing, shall we saying

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Speaker 1: over the use of the Australian flag after Opposition leader

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Speaker 1: Peter Dutton said if elected, he would only stand in

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Speaker 1: front of the Australian flag and not the Indigenous flag.

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Speaker 2: So Prime Minus St Anthony Albanezy regularly holds press conferences,

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Speaker 2: meetings that sort of thing in front of both flags.

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Speaker 2: Peter Dunton told Sky News that Australia should be united

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Speaker 2: under one flag and he would never address the nation

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Speaker 2: with both the Australian and Indigenous flags behind him. Later,

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Speaker 2: Shadow Ham Affairs Minister James Patterson double down. He said

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Speaker 2: Australian needs to have a unifying flag. Now he was

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Speaker 2: referring to the current Australian flag, but I think the

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Speaker 2: point is that it doesn't unify all peoples that live

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Speaker 2: in this country anyway. That's going on, Michael, Yes, indeed

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Speaker 2: it is.

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Speaker 1: And just while we're on politics, sean senior Liberal front

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Speaker 1: bencher Paul Fletcher will retire from politics at the next election. No no,

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Speaker 1: I said his name so oddly just then really put

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Speaker 1: a lot of emphasis on the Fletcher, didn't I sorry?

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Speaker 2: Gone. It raises the prospect of Bradfield, a wance Liberal

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Speaker 2: stronghold in Sydney's Upper North Shore, going to the Tels

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Speaker 2: next election. It has always been held by the Liberals

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Speaker 2: with strong margin that is now considered not so strong.

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Speaker 2: It's under four percent now. Mister Bradfield follows Simon Birmingham

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Speaker 2: out the door. Both are considered moderate Liberals. Mister Fletcher,

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Speaker 2: who used to work at Optics, said after fifteen years

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Speaker 2: in politics he needed renewal and plans to return to

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Speaker 2: the private sector.

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Speaker 1: Got fifteen years in politics is a long time, isn't it?

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Speaker 2: Ouch. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, now things aren't getting any better at Woollies, Sean,

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Speaker 1: with the New Zealand Competition Regulator filing charges against the

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Speaker 1: retailer and its Keywei rival Pack and Save, claiming they

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Speaker 1: are misleading shoppers on promotional prices and specials.

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Speaker 2: Sean, ah, so familiar, so familiar. The Commerce Commissions a

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Speaker 2: deputy chair and Cullenan said the regulator was not satisfied

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Speaker 2: that specials really are special. She said supermarkets in New

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Speaker 2: Zealand have been on notice for a long time about

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Speaker 2: having clear pricing and accurate labeling of specials. Woolies has

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Speaker 2: been in New Zealand since two thousand and five, has

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Speaker 2: almost two hundred stores, though earnings have disappointed recently. In Australia,

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Speaker 2: along with Coles, Woollies is fighting action launched by the

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Speaker 2: HABC that alleges promotional prices on hundreds of products were

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Speaker 2: actually higher than a few weeks earlier.

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Speaker 1: Sean, It's that time of year. Google has released its

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Speaker 1: top search names and phrases for twenty twenty four. Politics, sports, people,

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Speaker 1: pop stars will come out on top.

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Speaker 2: No surprises, but there is one big surprise to me.

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Speaker 2: So the US election came in at number one. The

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Speaker 2: most searched phrase was who won the US election, which

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Speaker 2: I think is ironic because we all found out who

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Speaker 2: won the US election without having to google it anyone.

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Speaker 2: The most searched for Australian was John Singleton, probably as

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Speaker 2: a result of his personal relationship with the Bondi stabbing

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Speaker 2: attacks earlier in the year. The most searched for definition Michael,

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Speaker 2: this is the one that threw me demure de m r. Oh, yes, yes, yes, yes,

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Speaker 2: you don't know, no, I don't do you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. There was a there was a It was a

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Speaker 1: TikTok viral trend earlier in the year, and it was

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Speaker 1: somebody that they were talking about being very mindful, very demure,

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Speaker 1: and so all of a sudden that just took off

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Speaker 1: and everybody jumped on board. It, businesses everyone, and it

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Speaker 1: was so intense for a period of about a week

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Speaker 1: where everybody, every business under the sun, was putting out

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Speaker 1: videos about very mindful, very demure. And then it just

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Speaker 1: died away, as these trends tend to do. So my

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Speaker 1: sixteen year old I told her this and she goes,

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Speaker 1: oh yeah, yeah, yeah, she'd like of course. What I

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Speaker 1: think is interesting is how many people then don't know

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Speaker 1: what the meaning of the word demure is. Oh yeah,

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Speaker 1: so they're not actually looking up the trend. They're actually

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Speaker 1: just trying to figure out what the word is.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, yeah, the meaning of demure. That's actually what

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Speaker 2: it was.

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Speaker 1: They're using Google as a dictionary as opposed to actually

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Speaker 1: looking up the trend like you would be doing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, thanks Act one. The Olympics came in at

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Speaker 2: number two on the list of Australian searches. After the

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Speaker 2: US election, then the Euro's football tournament. Liam Payne, who

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Speaker 2: of course fell to his death from a hotel balcony

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Speaker 2: quite tragically in October, it was number four. Taylor Swift,

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Speaker 2: who finished her Omega two year tour, was number five.

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Speaker 2: Number six though, was connections. Do you know what connections is?

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Speaker 2: I have no idea, Oh, Jackie and I Avid. It's

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Speaker 2: connections people. It's a New York Times puzzle. So wordle

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Speaker 2: was the big one, but it's added on and it's

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Speaker 2: now the mini crossword was big. Now it's connections. And

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Speaker 2: so they give you a bunch of words twelve words

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Speaker 2: four x four must be sixteen words, and you've got

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Speaker 2: to get the connections between it's fantastic.

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Speaker 1: Oh that is good. Do you need a subscription to

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Speaker 1: The New York Times to play?

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Speaker 2: Or is it just a yes and you cannot have mine.

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Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure I know your password anyway, like I'm

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Speaker 1: playing Connections today. In international news Now serious story Sean

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Speaker 1: police are interviewing a twenty six year old over the

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Speaker 1: killing of a health insurance executive in New York last week.

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Speaker 2: An incredible story. Brian Thompson was United Healthcare's CEO. He's

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Speaker 2: walking to a conference early one morning before seven am

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Speaker 2: when he was shot from behind in a targeted killing.

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Speaker 2: All along, there have been suspicions that the killing related

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Speaker 2: as much to healthcare companies rather than the individual. A

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Speaker 2: man has been going on ever since. There was a

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Speaker 2: breakthrough when CCTV footage showed parts of the killer's face.

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Speaker 2: A tip from the public said a man fitting the

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Speaker 2: description was at a McDonald's restaurant in western Pennsylvania. Police

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Speaker 2: attended spoke to a twenty six year old Luigi Menngione

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Speaker 2: and discovered he had a fake ID and a gun

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Speaker 2: and silencer similar to those used in the killing. He

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Speaker 2: also had a handwritten manifest so condemning healthcare companies for

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Speaker 2: putting profits above patients. He is now assisting police with inquiries.

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Speaker 1: Omnicom Group Sean has agreed to buy into Public Group

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Speaker 1: for thirteen billion US dollars that's twenty one billion Aussie.

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Speaker 1: That will create the world's largest advertising company.

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Speaker 2: So Into Public shareholders will receive Omnicom shares as part

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Speaker 2: of the deal. It's expected to be done in the

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Speaker 2: second half of next year. Been a really tough time

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Speaker 2: for ad agencies. Big tech companies have been hoovering up

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Speaker 2: the marketing dollar. We talked about that yesterday the day before.

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Speaker 2: Wasn't it something like seventy two percent spent in big

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Speaker 2: tech companies? Also ad agencies great creative agencies, but generative

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Speaker 2: AI are creeping into the work of those agencies. The

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Speaker 2: benefit of this big tie up in part its cost savings.

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Speaker 2: The deal will create a company with combined and your

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Speaker 2: revenue of twenty five billion US dollars, well ahead of

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Speaker 2: the now number two London based WPP. It has turnover

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Speaker 2: about nineteen billion US dollars.

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Speaker 1: And finally, Seohn China will inquire into Nvidia over suspicions

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Speaker 1: that the US chip maker broke anti monopoly laws around

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Speaker 1: a twenty twenty deal.

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Speaker 2: The State Administration for Market Regulation opened an investigation into

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Speaker 2: Nvidia's recent behavior, as well as the circumstances surrounding the

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Speaker 2: acquisition of Melanox Technologies. Beijing said the Chinese government approved

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Speaker 2: the deal four years ago. I'm not so happy now now.

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Speaker 2: There was a condition on that Nvidia couldn't discriminate against

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Speaker 2: Chinese companies. The move against Nvidia is Beijing's latest response

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Speaker 2: to escalating US technology curves and comes a week after

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Speaker 2: the Chinese government banned exports of several materials with tech

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Speaker 2: and military applications, according to report on Bloomberg. In a statement,

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Speaker 2: and Vidia said it's happy to answer any questions regulators

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Speaker 2: may have about its business.

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Speaker 1: All right, Up next is the Fear and Greed Daily Interview.

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Speaker 1: Warren Hogan is your guest today, all about interest rates

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Speaker 1: and the outlook where things be going in the next

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Speaker 1: year or so. It's coming up in the Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot

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Speaker 1: com dot au, which is a very important website to remember, Sean,

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Speaker 1: because where it's where you sign up for our free

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Speaker 1: weekly newsletter, which comes out today. It comes out in

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Speaker 1: a matter of mere hours and the panic on your

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Speaker 1: face as you realize that you now need to start

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Speaker 1: writing said newsletter. Eddie tips as to what you might

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Speaker 1: be giving us your unvarnished opinions on.

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Speaker 2: Plenty of interesting stuff. Can I leave it there? Yeah, economy,

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Speaker 2: Economy gets a rune a bit more on Google. Actually,

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Speaker 2: oh yeah, yeah, Oh you're full of mystery today, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: full of that. I'm quite demure today. Yeah, you are

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Speaker 2: absolutely full of it.

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Speaker 1: This is great, all right? Head along to Fearangreed dot

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Speaker 1: com dot au, pop your email addressing and the newsletter

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Speaker 1: will land in your inbox mid morning.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Wednesday, the eleventh of December twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast. Join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: ex TikTok and Facebook. Are Michael Thompson and that Wasphear

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Speaker 1: and Greed. Have a great day.