1 00:00:05,440 --> 00:00:08,160 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Business Interview. I'm Sean Aylmer. 2 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:12,080 Sean Aylmer: Last night, Treasurer Jim Chalmers delivered his fourth federal budget, 3 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:16,160 Sean Aylmer: a budget the government hadn't really intended to deliver until 4 00:00:16,160 --> 00:00:19,040 Sean Aylmer: ex tropical Cyclone Alfred delayed plans to call an election. 5 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:22,079 Sean Aylmer: It was a budget very light on reform, with the 6 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:26,720 Sean Aylmer: biggest surprise being fairly small tax cuts for all taxpayers 7 00:00:26,720 --> 00:00:28,880 Sean Aylmer: over the next couple of years. It also confirmed a 8 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:32,080 Sean Aylmer: decade of deficits ahead, but a better than expected outlook 9 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:34,880 Sean Aylmer: for economic growth. As the Treasurer acclaimed in Parliament House 10 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:38,959 Sean Aylmer: last night, Australia's economy is turning a corner, just as 11 00:00:38,960 --> 00:00:42,080 Sean Aylmer: the global economy is deteriorating. Every year we get the 12 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:46,360 Sean Aylmer: best budget and analysis from Fearing Greed's resident economist, Stephen 13 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:49,800 Sean Aylmer: Koukoulas aka The Kouk. You'll hear him every Monday on 14 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:52,760 Sean Aylmer: our podcast The Week Ahead. He's the managing director of 15 00:00:53,000 --> 00:00:56,680 Sean Aylmer: Market Economics and a former economic advisor to a Prime minister. Stephen, 16 00:00:57,320 --> 00:00:59,680 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to Fear and Greed. Which is a bit ridiculous 17 00:00:59,680 --> 00:01:01,880 Sean Aylmer: saying that to you, Stephen, because you just part of 18 00:01:01,880 --> 00:01:02,480 Sean Aylmer: the furniture. 19 00:01:03,000 --> 00:01:05,160 Stephen Koukoulas: Yeah, indeed, but good to be here and good to 20 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:07,520 Stephen Koukoulas: sort of have a bit of a chat about the budget, 21 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:11,839 Stephen Koukoulas: because it was a document that sort of didn't set 22 00:01:11,880 --> 00:01:13,560 Stephen Koukoulas: the world on five, but it was one of those 23 00:01:13,600 --> 00:01:15,480 Stephen Koukoulas: ones where if you sort of sit back and just 24 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:18,319 Stephen Koukoulas: look at the bottom line numbers and some of the 25 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:22,360 Stephen Koukoulas: policy issues in there, yeah, it's okay, it's actually not 26 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:23,000 Stephen Koukoulas: too bad. 27 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:27,160 Sean Aylmer: So let's look at some of the surprises last night, 28 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:31,600 Sean Aylmer: particularly the tax cuts. Fairly small are they meaningful? 29 00:01:32,800 --> 00:01:35,760 Stephen Koukoulas: Look, they were a surprise. I don't think anybody had 30 00:01:36,240 --> 00:01:38,240 Stephen Koukoulas: heard of for got wind of the fact that they 31 00:01:38,240 --> 00:01:40,960 Stephen Koukoulas: were going to be raising that or sorry, lowering the 32 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:44,680 Stephen Koukoulas: tax threshold on the lowest bracket from sixteen cents to 33 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:48,960 Stephen Koukoulas: fourteen cents over a couple of years. They're not big 34 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:52,000 Stephen Koukoulas: bickis and not big dollars savings once they take effect 35 00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:53,720 Stephen Koukoulas: from the middle of next year. In the middle of 36 00:01:53,760 --> 00:01:56,560 Stephen Koukoulas: the year after that, I think it in total, someone 37 00:01:57,400 --> 00:01:59,720 Stephen Koukoulas: will be a tax paybably saving about fifteen to twenty 38 00:01:59,720 --> 00:02:02,160 Stephen Koukoulas: dollars a week. So in the scheme of where we're 39 00:02:02,160 --> 00:02:03,480 Stephen Koukoulas: going to be in the economy in a year or 40 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:05,720 Stephen Koukoulas: two's time, it's not a huge amount of money. But 41 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:08,160 Stephen Koukoulas: it's one of those ones that if we had tax 42 00:02:08,240 --> 00:02:10,799 Stephen Koukoulas: bracket indexation, which a lot of people talk about. It's 43 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:13,919 Stephen Koukoulas: probably the extent of the vexation that we'd probably see 44 00:02:14,000 --> 00:02:17,720 Stephen Koukoulas: if we had that. So look, it's just something there. 45 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:20,320 Stephen Koukoulas: It's a little sweet, and I think it's probably more 46 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:23,120 Stephen Koukoulas: to do with something else for the government to talk 47 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:25,640 Stephen Koukoulas: about as the election campaign starts to heat up and 48 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:27,880 Stephen Koukoulas: we get very close to election day. It's not a 49 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,120 Stephen Koukoulas: bad thing. It's not the sort of thing either that's 50 00:02:30,120 --> 00:02:32,000 Stephen Koukoulas: going to blow inflation out of the water because it's 51 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:33,799 Stephen Koukoulas: such a big tax cut. But it's not the sort 52 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,359 Stephen Koukoulas: of thing either that's going to be sort of celebrated 53 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:38,639 Stephen Koukoulas: by everyone that that's, oh wow, this is a game changer. 54 00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:41,840 Stephen Koukoulas: But having said all that, I prefer lower taxes than 55 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:44,400 Stephen Koukoulas: the higher taxes, so I'll take every little bit that 56 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:45,000 Stephen Koukoulas: I can get. 57 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:49,640 Sean Aylmer: What about the healthcare changes, so the hopefully there's more 58 00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:53,440 Sean Aylmer: money for GPS, hopefully meaning more bulk billing for people, 59 00:02:53,919 --> 00:02:57,320 Sean Aylmer: the cost of a script will fall. All cost of 60 00:02:57,320 --> 00:02:59,200 Sean Aylmer: living measures really all. 61 00:02:59,120 --> 00:03:01,800 Stephen Koukoulas: Cost of living measures, and again they're the sort of 62 00:03:01,800 --> 00:03:04,880 Stephen Koukoulas: items that a lot of people avoid going to the 63 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:07,359 Stephen Koukoulas: doctor or they avoid getting their scripts filled because they 64 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:10,040 Stephen Koukoulas: do just cost that large amount of money. And when 65 00:03:10,040 --> 00:03:14,800 Stephen Koukoulas: you're really on the edge of your financial status and 66 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:16,600 Stephen Koukoulas: you're feeling a bit crawk or do you I've got 67 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:18,840 Stephen Koukoulas: this scriptive film that it's going to cost me thirty five 68 00:03:18,880 --> 00:03:20,440 Stephen Koukoulas: bucks or whatever it is, and it's down to twenty 69 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:24,720 Stephen Koukoulas: five dollars. Great, So again something that we're announced pre budget. Actually, 70 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:26,640 Stephen Koukoulas: this is one of the things about the budget in general, 71 00:03:26,680 --> 00:03:28,680 Stephen Koukoulas: and are you alluded to in the intro Seawan that 72 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:31,400 Stephen Koukoulas: it was a budget that they didn't really think that 73 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:33,519 Stephen Koukoulas: they would deliver, so that it's a lot of stuff 74 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:35,720 Stephen Koukoulas: that they just sort of packaged together in the budget. 75 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:39,480 Stephen Koukoulas: So these health reforms, they're useful. Again, they're certainly helpful 76 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:43,920 Stephen Koukoulas: for again the marginal individual out there in terms of 77 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:48,280 Stephen Koukoulas: their GP visits and bulk billing rates and the prescription costs. 78 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:51,119 Stephen Koukoulas: Again they're just a few bucks here, a few bucks there. 79 00:03:51,120 --> 00:03:53,120 Stephen Koukoulas: But in a sense, once you add up all these 80 00:03:53,120 --> 00:03:56,000 Stephen Koukoulas: things and you're throwing things like childcare and whatnot, you 81 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:58,440 Stephen Koukoulas: know there's some pretty decent sort of cost of living 82 00:03:58,480 --> 00:03:59,480 Stephen Koukoulas: relief measures there. 83 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:03,200 Sean Aylmer: Okay, what about the deficit forecast? So forty two point 84 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:06,520 Sean Aylmer: one billion next financial year, coming in over twenty seven 85 00:04:06,520 --> 00:04:10,240 Sean Aylmer: billion this financial year. Should we be worried about those things. 86 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:15,640 Stephen Koukoulas: I'm I would like to see smaller deficits at this 87 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:18,040 Stephen Koukoulas: stage of the business cycle, and particularly as the treasure 88 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:20,840 Stephen Koukoulas: is forecasting stronger economic growth. I think once we get 89 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:22,840 Stephen Koukoulas: out into financially twenty six to twenty seven, so a 90 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:25,440 Stephen Koukoulas: couple of years from now, and so two and a 91 00:04:25,440 --> 00:04:28,400 Stephen Koukoulas: half two and three quarter GDP growth, with inflation at 92 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:30,280 Stephen Koukoulas: two and a half, with the unemployment rates still at 93 00:04:30,279 --> 00:04:34,160 Stephen Koukoulas: four and a quarter percent, you would probably think the 94 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:38,160 Stephen Koukoulas: budget deficits may be a little bit smaller. But again 95 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:40,880 Stephen Koukoulas: in the scheme of things, and given the size of 96 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:43,760 Stephen Koukoulas: the Australian economy now we're close to a three trillion 97 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:47,839 Stephen Koukoulas: dollars per auntum economy budget spending an outlayser eight hundred 98 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:51,200 Stephen Koukoulas: billion dollars per auntum, so small forecasting eras can have 99 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:53,160 Stephen Koukoulas: a very big effect on the budget bottom line. There's 100 00:04:53,200 --> 00:04:55,360 Stephen Koukoulas: not an excuse to say that the budget deficits don't matter. 101 00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:58,919 Stephen Koukoulas: But when the economy is improving, and maybe this is 102 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:02,120 Stephen Koukoulas: for the post election budget, whoever wins the election might 103 00:05:02,160 --> 00:05:04,000 Stephen Koukoulas: just sort of deliver a few nasties to sort of 104 00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:07,279 Stephen Koukoulas: get that structural balance of the budget in better shape. 105 00:05:07,440 --> 00:05:09,760 Stephen Koukoulas: But again we've only got budget deficits. They're only about 106 00:05:09,760 --> 00:05:12,400 Stephen Koukoulas: one point two one point three percent of GDP. They're 107 00:05:12,400 --> 00:05:15,279 Stephen Koukoulas: the sort of numbers that certainly haven't spooked the markets. 108 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:17,720 Stephen Koukoulas: And just as I was looking last night at the 109 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:20,120 Stephen Koukoulas: initial money market reactions to it, it was a big yawn. 110 00:05:20,200 --> 00:05:22,800 Stephen Koukoulas: They didn't even move the dollar, the bond yields or 111 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,960 Stephen Koukoulas: anything even response to these tax cuts and other measures 112 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:28,400 Stephen Koukoulas: that were there. But you know, the US is going 113 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:30,960 Stephen Koukoulas: through agony right now trying to get their budget deficit 114 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:33,640 Stephen Koukoulas: down from six percent of GDP. You know, the dose 115 00:05:34,120 --> 00:05:37,680 Stephen Koukoulas: tax cuts and other spending cuts that mister Musk is implementing, 116 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:41,000 Stephen Koukoulas: is struggling to get their budget deficit to anywhere near ours. 117 00:05:41,040 --> 00:05:42,760 Stephen Koukoulas: Is so again, I think we just need to sort 118 00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:44,719 Stephen Koukoulas: of take a step back. You know what, do we 119 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:47,160 Stephen Koukoulas: want this budget to deliver or any budget deliver bit 120 00:05:47,480 --> 00:05:50,240 Stephen Koukoulas: from any treasure. And at the end of the day, 121 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:52,839 Stephen Koukoulas: if the economy is growing, you know, small budget deficit, 122 00:05:52,880 --> 00:05:54,760 Stephen Koukoulas: there's a little bit of cost of relief. It's not 123 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:55,760 Stephen Koukoulas: the worst thing that we've seen. 124 00:05:56,200 --> 00:05:58,239 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Steve, and we'll be back in a minute. 125 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,480 Sean Aylmer: I guess this morning is economist Stephen could call us 126 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:10,799 Sean Aylmer: before we went to the break you kind of wrapped 127 00:06:10,880 --> 00:06:13,479 Sean Aylmer: up the budget and there's a bit of cost of 128 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:18,239 Sean Aylmer: living relief and mean around the edges. Should budgets be 129 00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,720 Sean Aylmer: more reform documents? 130 00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:25,240 Stephen Koukoulas: I think back in the day, and look at my 131 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:28,279 Stephen Koukoulas: gray hair tells me I've used to be involved in 132 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:32,320 Stephen Koukoulas: the budget writing process many many moons ago and back 133 00:06:32,320 --> 00:06:34,680 Stephen Koukoulas: in the day. If I can tease that praising before 134 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:38,080 Stephen Koukoulas: everybody says, okay, Boomer, you know, tell us your old 135 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:41,240 Stephen Koukoulas: more stories. But yeah, back in the day, they were 136 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:43,760 Stephen Koukoulas: bigger reforming documents. So I think in the era where 137 00:06:43,839 --> 00:06:45,960 Stephen Koukoulas: there wasn't the twenty four hour news cycle and these 138 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:48,960 Stephen Koukoulas: sorts of things, when the budget came along, everyone was 139 00:06:49,000 --> 00:06:51,760 Stephen Koukoulas: there anxiously seeing what was in there. Hence we had 140 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:54,719 Stephen Koukoulas: the lock ups and there would be many, many different 141 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:58,720 Stephen Koukoulas: headlines that came of it. Nowadays we just touched on Sean, 142 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:01,120 Stephen Koukoulas: the treasure and the govern It's announced a lot of 143 00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:02,880 Stephen Koukoulas: the things that were sort of packaged up in the 144 00:07:02,920 --> 00:07:06,440 Stephen Koukoulas: budget well before budget night. We don't need to wait 145 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:10,120 Stephen Koukoulas: to list budget night for policy decisions to be announced. 146 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,960 Stephen Koukoulas: If you've got a good idea on the housing side, 147 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:17,480 Stephen Koukoulas: on childcare, on pharmaceutical payments, announce them when you've got 148 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:20,280 Stephen Koukoulas: them ready, And of course with the budget it's at 149 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:23,120 Stephen Koukoulas: of more I think an accounting document, so you bring 150 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:26,880 Stephen Koukoulas: together all the costs and changes to parameters and the 151 00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:29,640 Stephen Koukoulas: tax receipts and these sort of things. And that's a 152 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:33,560 Stephen Koukoulas: really important part of budgeting. By definition, what is the 153 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,040 Stephen Koukoulas: accounting mechanism? How big is the surplace or the deficit? 154 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,800 Stephen Koukoulas: What is happening to government that how many bonds will 155 00:07:38,800 --> 00:07:41,440 Stephen Koukoulas: the government need to issue to cover the budget deficit 156 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:44,480 Stephen Koukoulas: this year? And that's all really really important stuff. But 157 00:07:44,800 --> 00:07:47,320 Stephen Koukoulas: in terms of the policy reform, if you've got a 158 00:07:47,360 --> 00:07:51,280 Stephen Koukoulas: good idea in government, announce it today tomorrow, don't wait 159 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:53,520 Stephen Koukoulas: for the budget to do it, because people are hungry 160 00:07:53,520 --> 00:07:56,400 Stephen Koukoulas: for economic news and economic policy change as well. So 161 00:07:56,720 --> 00:07:59,440 Stephen Koukoulas: I think the budget's losing a lot or has lost 162 00:07:59,440 --> 00:08:01,560 Stephen Koukoulas: a lot of it's us. It's just not that sort 163 00:08:01,600 --> 00:08:04,120 Stephen Koukoulas: of wow sort of document that it used to be. 164 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:07,040 Sean Aylmer: What about it In terms of this budget as a 165 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:09,679 Sean Aylmer: pre election budget, it is obviously a pre election budget 166 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:11,440 Sean Aylmer: because we have tap on by the middle of May, 167 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:13,720 Sean Aylmer: in election by the middle of May. How is it 168 00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:17,160 Sean Aylmer: if we want to rate it? In terms of that, 169 00:08:17,560 --> 00:08:21,559 Sean Aylmer: there's always a temptation for government to go big ahead 170 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:25,080 Sean Aylmer: of the election. They didn't totally do that last night. 171 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:28,520 Stephen Koukoulas: No, they didn't. Apart from the income tax cuss, which 172 00:08:28,520 --> 00:08:30,720 Stephen Koukoulas: again we said, we're not huge in the scheme of 173 00:08:30,920 --> 00:08:33,840 Stephen Koukoulas: throwing money around, if you like, but building on some 174 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:36,880 Stephen Koukoulas: of the other measures that have been announced previously, including 175 00:08:36,920 --> 00:08:39,680 Stephen Koukoulas: the extension of electricity subsidies from other two corps and 176 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:42,080 Stephen Koukoulas: these sorts of things, there are things out there which 177 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:45,839 Stephen Koukoulas: are appealing but don't necessarily blow the budget out of 178 00:08:45,880 --> 00:08:48,480 Stephen Koukoulas: the war. And again I mentioned the money market reaction 179 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:51,400 Stephen Koukoulas: to the budget because again as we saw with various examples, 180 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:53,560 Stephen Koukoulas: I think back to Liz trust in the UK a 181 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:55,960 Stephen Koukoulas: couple of years ago when she announced a whole lot 182 00:08:55,960 --> 00:09:01,040 Stephen Koukoulas: of radical reforms. The market's absolutely tanked the budget coming out. 183 00:09:01,080 --> 00:09:04,240 Stephen Koukoulas: And as I look at the markets on yields might 184 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:05,920 Stephen Koukoulas: be up or down a tick or two, and the 185 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:08,440 Stephen Koukoulas: Aussie dollars sort of barely moved, and they're actually actually 186 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:11,360 Stephen Koukoulas: reacting more to the US economic used than our own budget. 187 00:09:11,400 --> 00:09:16,400 Stephen Koukoulas: So that says to me that whatever the pre election posturing, 188 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,040 Stephen Koukoulas: if you like, of the government when it framed its budget, 189 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:21,040 Stephen Koukoulas: it's not the sort of thing that's going to first 190 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:24,400 Stephen Koukoulas: of all, scare too many vaders but it's not necessarily 191 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:25,520 Stephen Koukoulas: the think that people can say to you, I'm going 192 00:09:25,559 --> 00:09:26,920 Stephen Koukoulas: to get ahole lot of cash in my pockets or 193 00:09:26,920 --> 00:09:29,360 Stephen Koukoulas: I might vote for you. So again, and that's where 194 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:31,319 Stephen Koukoulas: the treasure has tried to come out. I listened to 195 00:09:31,400 --> 00:09:33,240 Stephen Koukoulas: him last night and sort of taking so, Look, it's 196 00:09:33,240 --> 00:09:37,360 Stephen Koukoulas: a prudent, responsible budget and look it broadly? Is it 197 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,120 Stephen Koukoulas: broadly is? And as an economist, yes, I'd love to 198 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:42,480 Stephen Koukoulas: see more reform. But you know, I'd also like to 199 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:44,386 Stephen Koukoulas: open the batting for Australia and I'm not going to 200 00:09:44,386 --> 00:09:46,000 Stephen Koukoulas: get that either. 201 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:49,240 Sean Aylmer: Very quickly, Peter Dutton speaks on Thursday night, his reply, 202 00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:52,960 Sean Aylmer: his budget reply. It's an opportunity for him to have 203 00:09:52,960 --> 00:09:56,520 Sean Aylmer: a set piece. Even if the general population doesn't necessarily 204 00:09:56,559 --> 00:10:01,040 Sean Aylmer: watch him, certainly the media watches him. Is he likely 205 00:10:01,160 --> 00:10:07,200 Sean Aylmer: to say anything particularly around reform, around change or do 206 00:10:07,240 --> 00:10:08,960 Sean Aylmer: you think he'll play a pretty straight back too. 207 00:10:09,320 --> 00:10:12,880 Stephen Koukoulas: Look, it's a great opportunity for him, and I love 208 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:14,959 Stephen Koukoulas: politics and I love the hustle and bustle of the 209 00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,559 Stephen Koukoulas: political debate. So I'm really hoping that he does come 210 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:20,920 Stephen Koukoulas: out with the Coalition's alternative policy, because that's what it's about. 211 00:10:21,760 --> 00:10:23,640 Stephen Koukoulas: They're all copying each other then it's a bit of 212 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:26,400 Stephen Koukoulas: a yawn fest in a sense. So if I was 213 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:28,880 Stephen Koukoulas: Peter Dutton or advising him, I'd say, look again, without 214 00:10:29,520 --> 00:10:32,160 Stephen Koukoulas: super radical policies or something that's going to scare the horses, 215 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:34,240 Stephen Koukoulas: so to speak, it's a great chance for him to 216 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:36,280 Stephen Koukoulas: put a little bit of flesh on a couple of 217 00:10:36,360 --> 00:10:38,760 Stephen Koukoulas: alternative policies. I don't know what they're going to be, 218 00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:40,840 Stephen Koukoulas: but here's a chance for him to sort of set 219 00:10:40,880 --> 00:10:43,760 Stephen Koukoulas: the groundwork for the election campaign. Maybe he does something 220 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:46,360 Stephen Koukoulas: a little bit different on the income tax scales. We 221 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:48,640 Stephen Koukoulas: know they've got a different strategy on renewable energy and 222 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:51,680 Stephen Koukoulas: these sorts of things. That's fine, and that's important, and 223 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:53,319 Stephen Koukoulas: that's what we can have a debate about when the 224 00:10:53,440 --> 00:10:55,920 Stephen Koukoulas: election campaigning hots up. But it is a chance for 225 00:10:55,960 --> 00:10:58,600 Stephen Koukoulas: him to say, well, yeah, we would target a smaller budget, 226 00:10:59,000 --> 00:11:00,880 Stephen Koukoulas: definitely want to serve and this is how we go 227 00:11:01,000 --> 00:11:03,080 Stephen Koukoulas: to achieve it. I think it's how we achieve it 228 00:11:03,080 --> 00:11:04,240 Stephen Koukoulas: that he's got to put a bit of a flesh 229 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:07,080 Stephen Koukoulas: on the bone. And so I'm look, I'll be watching 230 00:11:07,120 --> 00:11:08,920 Stephen Koukoulas: it one of these suckers who will watch it, and 231 00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:11,400 Stephen Koukoulas: I just hope that it's a really it's an enlightening 232 00:11:11,760 --> 00:11:14,240 Stephen Koukoulas: delivery that just sort of lifts the whole economic debate 233 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:17,800 Stephen Koukoulas: because the Australian economy is pretty good but like my 234 00:11:17,880 --> 00:11:19,760 Stephen Koukoulas: old school reports, could be doing better. 235 00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:22,160 Sean Aylmer: Always, Stephen, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 236 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:25,840 Sean Aylmer: Thanks Sean, Stephen coodcurlas aka the Cook. He's the managing 237 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:28,560 Sean Aylmer: director of Market Economics. You'll find him at the Cook 238 00:11:28,600 --> 00:11:32,120 Sean Aylmer: dot com, t h e k O UK, thekouk.com or 239 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:34,480 Sean Aylmer: on X using the handle @TheKouk. This is the Fear and 240 00:11:34,520 --> 00:11:37,040 Sean Aylmer: Greed Business Interview. Join us every morning for the full 241 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:40,120 Sean Aylmer: episode of Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people 242 00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,640 Sean Aylmer: who make their own decisions. I'm Sean Aylmer. Enjoy your day.