WEBVTT - Trump’s attack fleet readies to fire on Iran

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Friday, February twenty, twenty twenty six. The Royal Family's

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<v Speaker 1>Andrew problem just got a whole lot worse. British police

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<v Speaker 1>arrested Andrew Mountbatten Windsor overnight as part of their investigation

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<v Speaker 1>into possible misconduct in public offers. Mount Baton Windsor was

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<v Speaker 1>a British trade envoy. At the same time he was

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<v Speaker 1>associating with the American financier and pedophile Jeffrey Epstein. Documents

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<v Speaker 1>released by the US Department of Justice show Andrew and

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<v Speaker 1>his former wife Sarah Ferguson inviting Epstein to Royal palaces,

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<v Speaker 1>helping grow his network of powerful people, and, in Ferguson's case,

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<v Speaker 1>asking him for jobs and money, and even declaring she

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<v Speaker 1>loved him. The files also show Andrew sending Epstein official

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<v Speaker 1>UK documents derived from his work as a trade ambassador.

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<v Speaker 1>Mount Baton Windsor has always denied any wrongdoing, but paid

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<v Speaker 1>millions in an out of court settlement to Virginia Dufrey,

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<v Speaker 1>a woman who alleged she was trafficked by Epstein and

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<v Speaker 1>his girlfriend gilln Maxwell. Two men, including the then Duke

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<v Speaker 1>of York Andrew was detained in custody while police searched

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<v Speaker 1>properties in Berkshire and Norfolk, including on the King's Sandringham estate.

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<v Speaker 1>That story is developing fast and you can read the

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<v Speaker 1>latest right now at the Australian dot com dot a U.

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<v Speaker 1>Iran's network of terror spreads all over the world, from

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<v Speaker 1>Hesbalah and Hamas to Australia, where the regimes agents of

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<v Speaker 1>influence intimidate Iranian refugees and fan the flames of anti Semitism.

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<v Speaker 1>As Donald Trump readies his attack fleet for a strike

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<v Speaker 1>on Tehran, Chief International correspondent Cameron Stewart joins US to

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<v Speaker 1>step through Iran's options from here and the Pentagon's battle plan.

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<v Speaker 1>That's today's story.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, Lauran's supreme leader is throwing threats around as nuclear

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<v Speaker 2>talks with the US resume.

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<v Speaker 1>US is surging firepower to the Middle East as President

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<v Speaker 1>Trump pressures Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, we have a tremendous force going there, just

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<v Speaker 2>like we did in Venezuela, even bigger.

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<v Speaker 1>Cameron Stewart is The Australian's Chief International correspondent, Cameron The

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<v Speaker 1>United States is assembling an incredible armata in the Middle East,

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<v Speaker 1>the biggest force we've seen there in more than two decades.

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<v Speaker 1>What is about to happen, Claire?

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump is giving every single sign at the moment

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<v Speaker 2>that he intends to have a military strike against Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>His advisors maintained that he hasn't decided, and maybe that

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<v Speaker 2>is true. However, he has delivered, as you say, more

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<v Speaker 2>warplanes to the region than any time since the Goal War.

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<v Speaker 2>The second carrier task forced, the carrier Gerald Ford, will

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<v Speaker 2>ripe region on the weekends, which will give the US

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<v Speaker 2>enough firepower if it wants not just to strike Iran

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<v Speaker 2>as they did last June when they hit the nuclear

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<v Speaker 2>facilities in Iran, but it actually strike and continue a

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<v Speaker 2>sustained campaign against Iran for several weeks. And so that

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<v Speaker 2>is the AMAA that Donald Trump has assembled in the region.

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<v Speaker 2>At the moment, the official line from the White House

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<v Speaker 2>is thinking about using it, but I think it's increasingly

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<v Speaker 2>likely he will use it.

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<v Speaker 3>The President has always been very clear though, with respect

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<v Speaker 3>to Iran or any country around the world, diplomacy is

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<v Speaker 3>always his first option, and Iran would be very wise

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<v Speaker 3>to make a deal with President Trump. And with this administration.

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<v Speaker 1>The United States has got a lot of problems with Iran,

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<v Speaker 1>including that it funds terror proxies in the region, Hamas, Hezbollah,

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<v Speaker 1>and the Hoofies. It also doesn't like Iran's nuclear program,

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<v Speaker 1>and Donald Trump most recently warned Iranian leaders that if

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<v Speaker 1>they crack down on their own people, he might intervene militarily.

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<v Speaker 1>That didn't happen when Iran appeared to be massacring tens

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<v Speaker 1>of thousands of its own people. So which of those

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<v Speaker 1>three problems is actually causing this escalation right now?

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<v Speaker 2>Cam Well, at the heart of it, of course, going back,

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<v Speaker 2>Iran has been the bogie of the United States even

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<v Speaker 2>since the Iranian Revolution in nineteen seventy nine. Of course

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<v Speaker 2>the famous hostage crisis that was around that time as well,

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<v Speaker 2>and US presidents would love to have seen the Iranian

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<v Speaker 2>regime for many times over, and I think Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 2>sees an opportunity here to perhaps execute that actual aim

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<v Speaker 2>in an accidental sense really, because of course we have

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<v Speaker 2>the Iranian regime rise up against the protesters who were

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<v Speaker 2>in the streets protesting about economic hardship. They killed at

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<v Speaker 2>least six thousand of them. Donald Trump promised that help

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<v Speaker 2>was on the way MARKA would do something about.

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<v Speaker 1>It, keep protesting, take your institutions if classible, and save

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<v Speaker 1>the name of the killers and the abuses miss helpers.

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<v Speaker 2>On a sway, he didn't. But the delayed reaction now

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<v Speaker 2>is that he's transformed that into threatening Iran on several fronts.

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<v Speaker 2>He wants Iran to end its in returns of uranium,

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<v Speaker 2>which effectively would mean it's abandoning its long held desire

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<v Speaker 2>for a nuclear weapon program. And he also wants Iran

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<v Speaker 2>to curtail the size and the range of its ballistic

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<v Speaker 2>missile project and as well as that, he wants Iran

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<v Speaker 2>to stop financially assisting its terror proxies in the region

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<v Speaker 2>that includes Hesbala, Amas and the Hoofy rebels. Now, they're

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<v Speaker 2>the three things that Donald Trump wants and that's a

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<v Speaker 2>big ask for Iran. And at the moment, what we've

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<v Speaker 2>seen is a series of negotiations where the Iranians are

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<v Speaker 2>doing what the Iranians always do, and that's spin it

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<v Speaker 2>out delay. So we've made some progress, very creamental, let's

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<v Speaker 2>come back in a few weeks. They want to try

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<v Speaker 2>and make it slow process that doesn't lead to a

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<v Speaker 2>military strike. Donald Trump as we know famously in patients,

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't want to wait around, and so his great question

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<v Speaker 2>is does he think he's going to get the diplomatic

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<v Speaker 2>gapdome he wants without striking around, or does he have

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<v Speaker 2>to go in there and naturally launch military strikes.

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<v Speaker 1>For more than a decade now, Donald Trump's been criticizing

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<v Speaker 1>the deal that America previously negotiated with Iran to try

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<v Speaker 1>and limit all of these things. That was Barack Obama's

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<v Speaker 1>twenty fifteen agreement, which saw Iran agree to reduce its

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<v Speaker 1>uranium in Richmond and so on. You can argue about

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<v Speaker 1>whether they actually did anything there and allow inspectors in.

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<v Speaker 1>In return, they got relief from sanctions and they got

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<v Speaker 1>access to oil and food. Basically, when you were going

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<v Speaker 1>through that list of things that Trump wants Iran to do, now,

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<v Speaker 1>I really wonder cam what would they be getting out

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<v Speaker 1>of it?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, that's right. I think that them to deliver all

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's demands would effectively mean that they're surrendering anyway before

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<v Speaker 2>they even have any military conflict. I think that's very unlikely.

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<v Speaker 2>I think that Trump has also has pivoted more to

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<v Speaker 2>focus on the nuclear side of things. I think if

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<v Speaker 2>Trump got a promise from Iran to stop its enrichment procedures,

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<v Speaker 2>to effectively give up its aim, it's desire for a

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<v Speaker 2>nuclear weapon. I think he will consider that a great victory.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think he would pursue the other issues of

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<v Speaker 2>ballistic missiles or support for the Axis of Evil, if

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<v Speaker 2>you like, because I think Iran is not going to

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<v Speaker 2>go there without a military conflict. It's simply not going

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<v Speaker 2>to go there in these diplomatic talks. But they're probably

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<v Speaker 2>not even going to go to the nuclear issue in

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<v Speaker 2>these diplomatic talks because, as I say, they are stringing

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<v Speaker 2>it along and not giving any firm commitments whatsoever.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, RAN's worldview is really shaped by hatred of Israel

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<v Speaker 1>and hatred of the United States. They feel that they

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<v Speaker 1>are under potential attack, and that's their justification for kind

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<v Speaker 1>of arming the reas to fight off the two Great Satans.

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<v Speaker 1>They still have a pretty sizable missile arsenal, as you said,

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<v Speaker 1>they fight a lot of them at Israel last year

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<v Speaker 1>and still have some left. So what's their capacity to

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<v Speaker 1>fight back if this does become a hot war camp.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the listeners of the Supreme Leader are Tayler harmony.

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<v Speaker 2>They've real a huge capacity. They're going to sink American

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<v Speaker 2>warships and they're going too shame the Great Satan Militarily,

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<v Speaker 2>That of course is not going to happen, But you're right,

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<v Speaker 2>Bran does have some posent weapons still. It still has

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<v Speaker 2>long range blistic missiles cler that can hit Israel. It

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<v Speaker 2>has short range missiles they can hit US fources stationed

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<v Speaker 2>in the region, in Syria, Iraq, in neighboring countries. So

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<v Speaker 2>the concern here from the Israeli side is that there

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<v Speaker 2>will be a barrage of long range missiles fired at

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<v Speaker 2>Israel in such a conflict. Can they shoot them down

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<v Speaker 2>or would they actually get into Israel and cause major damage.

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<v Speaker 2>The American concern is their troops in the region, and

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<v Speaker 2>they got anti missile systems to shoot them down effectively.

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<v Speaker 2>That's what Trump has been bringing into the region. He's

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<v Speaker 2>bringing in missile defense systems to shoot down Iranian ballistic missiles.

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<v Speaker 2>That's why it's taken so long for any conflict to

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<v Speaker 2>actually erupt. I mean, Trump was very tempted, I think,

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<v Speaker 2>to strike it Iran at the time that the protesters

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<v Speaker 2>were being killed by the regime, but he just couldn't

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<v Speaker 2>because he didn't have enough protective military equipment in the

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<v Speaker 2>region to guarantee the safety of those US troops, and

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<v Speaker 2>Israel in fact ask him to delay it as well

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<v Speaker 2>because Israel was concerned about their vulnerability as well. So, look,

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<v Speaker 2>Iran does have weapons. It can be dangerous. However, it

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<v Speaker 2>must be said clear that they were very impotent last

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<v Speaker 2>time when they struck back or tried to strive back

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<v Speaker 2>in June last year, when Israel and the US had

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<v Speaker 2>a tandem attack on the nuclear facilities in Iran, those

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<v Speaker 2>Iranian missiles were shot down and they were very impotent.

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<v Speaker 2>So I do think Iran the regime is greatly exaggerating

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<v Speaker 2>the deadly nature of its ability to strive back. That

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't mean they're not dangerous, but I don't think they

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<v Speaker 2>have a huge ability to do great destruction.

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump has said it might be necessary for the

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<v Speaker 1>United States to use two military bases US bases that

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<v Speaker 1>are controlled by the United Kingdom. That's Diego Garcia, which

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<v Speaker 1>is on a UK controlled island in the Indian Ocean,

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<v Speaker 1>and another base that's called Fairford that's actually in the

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<v Speaker 1>United Kingdom. That's got kind of World War vibes doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>it cam if the UK is hosting these attacks.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, I think the UK would be supportive in an

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<v Speaker 2>indirect way. I think most of the Western allies would

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<v Speaker 2>be reasonably supportive of Donald Trump taking some form of

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<v Speaker 2>action against Iran. Of course, it really depends what that

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<v Speaker 2>action is. Clear. If it was actually targeting the Iranian

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<v Speaker 2>military and political leaders, in other words, really going for

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<v Speaker 2>raising change as opposed to giving around just a black

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<v Speaker 2>eye militarily, then that might be a little bit more

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<v Speaker 2>questionable that support. But look, I think at the moment

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<v Speaker 2>the countries that are really learned about what the US

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<v Speaker 2>might be doing are actually the Gulf States. They are

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<v Speaker 2>nervous because they don't like the Iranian regime. They're womanly Sunni,

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<v Speaker 2>not shear as iran Is, but they do fear that

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<v Speaker 2>what will replace the regime if it's knocked off. They're

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<v Speaker 2>more concerned about the vacuum and the uncertainty that that

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<v Speaker 2>could create, rather than the Iranian regimes surviving intact. So

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<v Speaker 2>it's interesting that those countries are very wary of the

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<v Speaker 2>US going ahead, and they've cautioned Donald Trump against it.

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<v Speaker 1>Were at what feels like a very dangerous point for

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<v Speaker 1>the whole world right now. Cam and conflict in the

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<v Speaker 1>Middle East of course has been going on for thousands

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<v Speaker 1>of years. But can we date this back to her

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<v Speaker 1>master's attack on Israel in October twenty twenty three? You know,

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<v Speaker 1>is that what has really precipitated these massive escalation intensions

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<v Speaker 1>that now see two totally different countries about to have

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<v Speaker 1>a war.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, absolutely, I mean it looks certainly there were a

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<v Speaker 2>huge tensions between the US and Iran and Israel and

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<v Speaker 2>Iran prior to that, you know, with that targeted assassinations,

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<v Speaker 2>muscled operations against Iran. But the real trigger was the

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<v Speaker 2>October seven massacre of Israelis and the subsequent war in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 2>Iran made some very bad calculations. They asked Hezbolah to

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<v Speaker 2>start attacking Israel from their Lebanese stronghold. That ultimately resulted

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<v Speaker 2>in Israel crushing Hezbela. Obviously, Israel has largely crushed a

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<v Speaker 2>mass Israel has struck out the Houthi Rebels, another Iranian

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<v Speaker 2>backed oxy force in Yemen. Iran's proxies are being badly weakened.

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<v Speaker 2>And then Iran itself of course was humiliated frankly with

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<v Speaker 2>their impotent response through the US and Israeli attack on

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<v Speaker 2>the nuclear sides and the Israeli attack in the previous

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<v Speaker 2>year in twenty twenty four. So Iran has made a

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<v Speaker 2>series of miscalculations ever since October seven, twenty twenty three,

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<v Speaker 2>which have greatly weakened its position in the region, and that,

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<v Speaker 2>frankly is why Donald Trump and the Israelis seeing an opportunity,

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<v Speaker 2>historic opportunity in their eyes, to actually remove this regime

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<v Speaker 2>at a time when it's never been weaker since nineteen

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<v Speaker 2>seventy nine when it took power.

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<v Speaker 1>The Iranian regime is of course very powerful within Iran itself.

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<v Speaker 1>It's got a lot of influence outside the country, even

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<v Speaker 1>as far as Australia. The Australian has been doing a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of reporting about what life is like for the

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<v Speaker 1>diaspora Iranians who've come here over the past decades, who've

0:13:45.440 --> 0:13:49.040
<v Speaker 1>fled the regime and who are now under surveillance and

0:13:49.679 --> 0:13:52.120
<v Speaker 1>really under the thum of Iran even though they are

0:13:52.160 --> 0:13:55.760
<v Speaker 1>thousands of kilometers away. On Thursday, The Australian revealed that

0:13:55.840 --> 0:13:59.520
<v Speaker 1>the daughter of a sanctioned Iranian military leader, someone who's

0:13:59.640 --> 0:14:02.600
<v Speaker 1>very to the top, has been living in Australia for

0:14:02.760 --> 0:14:06.839
<v Speaker 1>years and studying for health qualifications that I think has

0:14:06.880 --> 0:14:10.400
<v Speaker 1>sent a chill through the diaspora community here. What's your

0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:14.400
<v Speaker 1>sense of how long Iran's reach really is and what

0:14:14.480 --> 0:14:16.800
<v Speaker 1>they could do in Australia if they wanted to.

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<v Speaker 2>Iran's reach is quite surprising, I think when you look

0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:24.600
<v Speaker 2>at it, I mean, it is a long way from Australia,

0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:28.120
<v Speaker 2>and yet they have tentacles in Australia. Iran has people

0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:31.040
<v Speaker 2>in Australia who are sympathetic to the regime who have

0:14:31.120 --> 0:14:34.400
<v Speaker 2>been tasked to keep an eye on Iranian Australians here.

0:14:34.440 --> 0:14:37.320
<v Speaker 2>They're Iranians in Australia who do not like the regime.

0:14:37.800 --> 0:14:40.760
<v Speaker 2>They've effectively got their own spy FORRSE if you like

0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:45.040
<v Speaker 2>here in Australia. And we've seen that Iran has pushed

0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:48.200
<v Speaker 2>things in Australia so much so. Today's has accused Iran

0:14:48.880 --> 0:14:52.720
<v Speaker 2>of organizing anti Semitic attacks on Jewish targets. We had

0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:57.280
<v Speaker 2>the attack on the Israeli do Synagogue in Melbourne and

0:14:57.400 --> 0:15:00.440
<v Speaker 2>in late twenty twenty four and also int of Sydney restaurant.

0:15:00.960 --> 0:15:04.200
<v Speaker 1>Police have declared a fire bombing attack on the israel

0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:08.520
<v Speaker 1>synagogue in Melbourne Southeast last week as a likely terrorist incident.

0:15:08.720 --> 0:15:11.280
<v Speaker 2>Police art tonight asking for your help after a cafe

0:15:11.320 --> 0:15:15.080
<v Speaker 2>in Bondai went up in flames early this morning and

0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:18.080
<v Speaker 2>ACO is looking into other possible attacks. So that just

0:15:18.120 --> 0:15:22.520
<v Speaker 2>shows clear what a reach the Iranian regime has and

0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:26.240
<v Speaker 2>how much they care about exporting their kind of Islam

0:15:26.360 --> 0:15:29.760
<v Speaker 2>to other countries and putting down dissidents who opposed their

0:15:29.800 --> 0:15:32.080
<v Speaker 2>regime and who they see as a threat, even though

0:15:32.120 --> 0:15:33.960
<v Speaker 2>they are clearly across the other side of the world.

0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:38.560
<v Speaker 2>So Iran has been very active and I think surprisingly active.

0:15:38.560 --> 0:15:40.040
<v Speaker 2>I think it's really called a lot of people by

0:15:40.080 --> 0:15:44.040
<v Speaker 2>surprise how active they have been in distant countries like Australia.

0:15:51.320 --> 0:15:53.760
<v Speaker 1>We've talked before on the Front Cam about how if

0:15:53.760 --> 0:15:57.480
<v Speaker 1>the Iranian regime fell and left a vacuum in Iran itself,

0:15:57.520 --> 0:15:59.960
<v Speaker 1>that that would create a whole set of new problems

0:16:00.160 --> 0:16:00.920
<v Speaker 1>and concerns.

0:16:00.960 --> 0:16:01.840
<v Speaker 2>You know, who would.

0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:05.360
<v Speaker 1>Fill the void if that regime fell. There would also

0:16:05.440 --> 0:16:07.800
<v Speaker 1>be networks of people all around the world who would

0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:11.640
<v Speaker 1>be unmoored from that powerful regime. Here in Australia, the

0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:16.200
<v Speaker 1>people who allegedly are intimidating other Iranians what does that

0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:19.760
<v Speaker 1>mean for Australia's own domestic security picture.

0:16:20.320 --> 0:16:22.320
<v Speaker 2>Well, that's right, there would be a lot of people

0:16:22.320 --> 0:16:25.320
<v Speaker 2>who will suddenly be wondering who their masters are. Of Course,

0:16:25.360 --> 0:16:28.440
<v Speaker 2>the real problem here, Claire, as you alluded to, is

0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:32.480
<v Speaker 2>that there is no democratic opposition as such within Iran.

0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:36.960
<v Speaker 2>Anyone who potentially would be palatable to the West to

0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:39.880
<v Speaker 2>take over it in Iran is simply not in Iran.

0:16:40.440 --> 0:16:43.720
<v Speaker 2>And so to trouble is that a regiing falls, who's

0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:46.080
<v Speaker 2>going to replace it? One presumes it would be someone

0:16:46.360 --> 0:16:49.720
<v Speaker 2>perhaps a commander from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but

0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:52.440
<v Speaker 2>who of course would have been sympathetic to the regime

0:16:52.960 --> 0:16:55.520
<v Speaker 2>at this minute. So this is the problem, and this

0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:58.920
<v Speaker 2>is what the Americans don't know. This is why some

0:16:58.960 --> 0:17:01.680
<v Speaker 2>people are very cautious about the match they're trying to

0:17:01.680 --> 0:17:04.359
<v Speaker 2>topple the regime, because they simply don't know what comes

0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:07.280
<v Speaker 2>next to It's not like there's a neat fit to

0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:10.560
<v Speaker 2>put in there to replace the Eye Tollers. There really isn't,

0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:13.240
<v Speaker 2>And no matter what anyone said, it would be a

0:17:13.280 --> 0:17:17.080
<v Speaker 2>period of complete chaos and transition where no one really

0:17:17.160 --> 0:17:20.160
<v Speaker 2>knew what was happening. In Iran. That's a risk which

0:17:20.240 --> 0:17:22.800
<v Speaker 2>the Americans and Donald Trump will be taking if they

0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:24.560
<v Speaker 2>do try and actually take out the regime.

0:17:29.119 --> 0:17:36.439
<v Speaker 1>Cameron Stewart, thank you very much, pleasure. Cameron Stewart is

0:17:36.480 --> 0:17:39.840
<v Speaker 1>The Australian's chief international correspondent. You can check out all

0:17:40.000 --> 0:17:43.600
<v Speaker 1>our unrivaled journalism from around the world right now at

0:17:43.680 --> 0:17:45.680
<v Speaker 1>the Australian dot com dot au