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Speaker 1: From The Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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Speaker 1: It's Friday, February twenty, twenty twenty six. The Royal Family's

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Speaker 1: Andrew problem just got a whole lot worse. British police

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Speaker 1: arrested Andrew Mountbatten Windsor overnight as part of their investigation

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Speaker 1: into possible misconduct in public offers. Mount Baton Windsor was

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Speaker 1: a British trade envoy. At the same time he was

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Speaker 1: associating with the American financier and pedophile Jeffrey Epstein. Documents

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Speaker 1: released by the US Department of Justice show Andrew and

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Speaker 1: his former wife Sarah Ferguson inviting Epstein to Royal palaces,

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Speaker 1: helping grow his network of powerful people, and, in Ferguson's case,

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Speaker 1: asking him for jobs and money, and even declaring she

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Speaker 1: loved him. The files also show Andrew sending Epstein official

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Speaker 1: UK documents derived from his work as a trade ambassador.

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Speaker 1: Mount Baton Windsor has always denied any wrongdoing, but paid

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Speaker 1: millions in an out of court settlement to Virginia Dufrey,

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Speaker 1: a woman who alleged she was trafficked by Epstein and

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Speaker 1: his girlfriend gilln Maxwell. Two men, including the then Duke

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Speaker 1: of York Andrew was detained in custody while police searched

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Speaker 1: properties in Berkshire and Norfolk, including on the King's Sandringham estate.

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Speaker 1: That story is developing fast and you can read the

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Speaker 1: latest right now at the Australian dot com dot a U.

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Speaker 1: Iran's network of terror spreads all over the world, from

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Speaker 1: Hesbalah and Hamas to Australia, where the regimes agents of

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Speaker 1: influence intimidate Iranian refugees and fan the flames of anti Semitism.

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Speaker 1: As Donald Trump readies his attack fleet for a strike

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Speaker 1: on Tehran, Chief International correspondent Cameron Stewart joins US to

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Speaker 1: step through Iran's options from here and the Pentagon's battle plan.

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Speaker 1: That's today's story.

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Speaker 2: Well, Lauran's supreme leader is throwing threats around as nuclear

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Speaker 2: talks with the US resume.

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Speaker 1: US is surging firepower to the Middle East as President

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Speaker 1: Trump pressures Iran.

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Speaker 2: You know, we have a tremendous force going there, just

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Speaker 2: like we did in Venezuela, even bigger.

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Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is The Australian's Chief International correspondent, Cameron The

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Speaker 1: United States is assembling an incredible armata in the Middle East,

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Speaker 1: the biggest force we've seen there in more than two decades.

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Speaker 1: What is about to happen, Claire?

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump is giving every single sign at the moment

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Speaker 2: that he intends to have a military strike against Iran.

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Speaker 2: His advisors maintained that he hasn't decided, and maybe that

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Speaker 2: is true. However, he has delivered, as you say, more

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Speaker 2: warplanes to the region than any time since the Goal War.

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Speaker 2: The second carrier task forced, the carrier Gerald Ford, will

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Speaker 2: ripe region on the weekends, which will give the US

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Speaker 2: enough firepower if it wants not just to strike Iran

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Speaker 2: as they did last June when they hit the nuclear

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Speaker 2: facilities in Iran, but it actually strike and continue a

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Speaker 2: sustained campaign against Iran for several weeks. And so that

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Speaker 2: is the AMAA that Donald Trump has assembled in the region.

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Speaker 2: At the moment, the official line from the White House

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Speaker 2: is thinking about using it, but I think it's increasingly

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Speaker 2: likely he will use it.

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Speaker 3: The President has always been very clear though, with respect

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Speaker 3: to Iran or any country around the world, diplomacy is

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Speaker 3: always his first option, and Iran would be very wise

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Speaker 3: to make a deal with President Trump. And with this administration.

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Speaker 1: The United States has got a lot of problems with Iran,

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Speaker 1: including that it funds terror proxies in the region, Hamas, Hezbollah,

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Speaker 1: and the Hoofies. It also doesn't like Iran's nuclear program,

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Speaker 1: and Donald Trump most recently warned Iranian leaders that if

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Speaker 1: they crack down on their own people, he might intervene militarily.

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Speaker 1: That didn't happen when Iran appeared to be massacring tens

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Speaker 1: of thousands of its own people. So which of those

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Speaker 1: three problems is actually causing this escalation right now?

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Speaker 2: Cam Well, at the heart of it, of course, going back,

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Speaker 2: Iran has been the bogie of the United States even

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Speaker 2: since the Iranian Revolution in nineteen seventy nine. Of course

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Speaker 2: the famous hostage crisis that was around that time as well,

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Speaker 2: and US presidents would love to have seen the Iranian

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Speaker 2: regime for many times over, and I think Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: sees an opportunity here to perhaps execute that actual aim

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Speaker 2: in an accidental sense really, because of course we have

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Speaker 2: the Iranian regime rise up against the protesters who were

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Speaker 2: in the streets protesting about economic hardship. They killed at

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Speaker 2: least six thousand of them. Donald Trump promised that help

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Speaker 2: was on the way MARKA would do something about.

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Speaker 1: It, keep protesting, take your institutions if classible, and save

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Speaker 1: the name of the killers and the abuses miss helpers.

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Speaker 2: On a sway, he didn't. But the delayed reaction now

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Speaker 2: is that he's transformed that into threatening Iran on several fronts.

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Speaker 2: He wants Iran to end its in returns of uranium,

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Speaker 2: which effectively would mean it's abandoning its long held desire

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Speaker 2: for a nuclear weapon program. And he also wants Iran

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Speaker 2: to curtail the size and the range of its ballistic

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Speaker 2: missile project and as well as that, he wants Iran

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Speaker 2: to stop financially assisting its terror proxies in the region

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Speaker 2: that includes Hesbala, Amas and the Hoofy rebels. Now, they're

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Speaker 2: the three things that Donald Trump wants and that's a

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Speaker 2: big ask for Iran. And at the moment, what we've

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Speaker 2: seen is a series of negotiations where the Iranians are

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Speaker 2: doing what the Iranians always do, and that's spin it

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Speaker 2: out delay. So we've made some progress, very creamental, let's

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Speaker 2: come back in a few weeks. They want to try

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Speaker 2: and make it slow process that doesn't lead to a

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Speaker 2: military strike. Donald Trump as we know famously in patients,

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Speaker 2: doesn't want to wait around, and so his great question

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Speaker 2: is does he think he's going to get the diplomatic

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Speaker 2: gapdome he wants without striking around, or does he have

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Speaker 2: to go in there and naturally launch military strikes.

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Speaker 1: For more than a decade now, Donald Trump's been criticizing

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Speaker 1: the deal that America previously negotiated with Iran to try

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Speaker 1: and limit all of these things. That was Barack Obama's

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Speaker 1: twenty fifteen agreement, which saw Iran agree to reduce its

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Speaker 1: uranium in Richmond and so on. You can argue about

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Speaker 1: whether they actually did anything there and allow inspectors in.

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Speaker 1: In return, they got relief from sanctions and they got

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Speaker 1: access to oil and food. Basically, when you were going

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Speaker 1: through that list of things that Trump wants Iran to do, now,

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Speaker 1: I really wonder cam what would they be getting out

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Speaker 1: of it?

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Speaker 2: Well, that's right. I think that them to deliver all

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Speaker 2: Trump's demands would effectively mean that they're surrendering anyway before

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Speaker 2: they even have any military conflict. I think that's very unlikely.

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Speaker 2: I think that Trump has also has pivoted more to

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Speaker 2: focus on the nuclear side of things. I think if

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Speaker 2: Trump got a promise from Iran to stop its enrichment procedures,

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Speaker 2: to effectively give up its aim, it's desire for a

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Speaker 2: nuclear weapon. I think he will consider that a great victory.

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Speaker 2: I don't think he would pursue the other issues of

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Speaker 2: ballistic missiles or support for the Axis of Evil, if

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Speaker 2: you like, because I think Iran is not going to

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Speaker 2: go there without a military conflict. It's simply not going

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Speaker 2: to go there in these diplomatic talks. But they're probably

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Speaker 2: not even going to go to the nuclear issue in

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Speaker 2: these diplomatic talks because, as I say, they are stringing

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Speaker 2: it along and not giving any firm commitments whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, RAN's worldview is really shaped by hatred of Israel

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Speaker 1: and hatred of the United States. They feel that they

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Speaker 1: are under potential attack, and that's their justification for kind

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Speaker 1: of arming the reas to fight off the two Great Satans.

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Speaker 1: They still have a pretty sizable missile arsenal, as you said,

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Speaker 1: they fight a lot of them at Israel last year

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Speaker 1: and still have some left. So what's their capacity to

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Speaker 1: fight back if this does become a hot war camp.

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Speaker 2: Well, the listeners of the Supreme Leader are Tayler harmony.

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Speaker 2: They've real a huge capacity. They're going to sink American

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Speaker 2: warships and they're going too shame the Great Satan Militarily,

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Speaker 2: That of course is not going to happen, But you're right,

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Speaker 2: Bran does have some posent weapons still. It still has

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Speaker 2: long range blistic missiles cler that can hit Israel. It

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Speaker 2: has short range missiles they can hit US fources stationed

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Speaker 2: in the region, in Syria, Iraq, in neighboring countries. So

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Speaker 2: the concern here from the Israeli side is that there

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Speaker 2: will be a barrage of long range missiles fired at

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Speaker 2: Israel in such a conflict. Can they shoot them down

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Speaker 2: or would they actually get into Israel and cause major damage.

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Speaker 2: The American concern is their troops in the region, and

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Speaker 2: they got anti missile systems to shoot them down effectively.

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Speaker 2: That's what Trump has been bringing into the region. He's

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Speaker 2: bringing in missile defense systems to shoot down Iranian ballistic missiles.

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Speaker 2: That's why it's taken so long for any conflict to

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Speaker 2: actually erupt. I mean, Trump was very tempted, I think,

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Speaker 2: to strike it Iran at the time that the protesters

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Speaker 2: were being killed by the regime, but he just couldn't

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Speaker 2: because he didn't have enough protective military equipment in the

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Speaker 2: region to guarantee the safety of those US troops, and

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Speaker 2: Israel in fact ask him to delay it as well

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Speaker 2: because Israel was concerned about their vulnerability as well. So, look,

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Speaker 2: Iran does have weapons. It can be dangerous. However, it

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Speaker 2: must be said clear that they were very impotent last

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Speaker 2: time when they struck back or tried to strive back

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Speaker 2: in June last year, when Israel and the US had

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Speaker 2: a tandem attack on the nuclear facilities in Iran, those

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Speaker 2: Iranian missiles were shot down and they were very impotent.

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Speaker 2: So I do think Iran the regime is greatly exaggerating

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Speaker 2: the deadly nature of its ability to strive back. That

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Speaker 2: doesn't mean they're not dangerous, but I don't think they

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Speaker 2: have a huge ability to do great destruction.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump has said it might be necessary for the

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Speaker 1: United States to use two military bases US bases that

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Speaker 1: are controlled by the United Kingdom. That's Diego Garcia, which

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Speaker 1: is on a UK controlled island in the Indian Ocean,

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Speaker 1: and another base that's called Fairford that's actually in the

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Speaker 1: United Kingdom. That's got kind of World War vibes doesn't

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Speaker 1: it cam if the UK is hosting these attacks.

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Speaker 2: Look, I think the UK would be supportive in an

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Speaker 2: indirect way. I think most of the Western allies would

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Speaker 2: be reasonably supportive of Donald Trump taking some form of

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Speaker 2: action against Iran. Of course, it really depends what that

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Speaker 2: action is. Clear. If it was actually targeting the Iranian

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Speaker 2: military and political leaders, in other words, really going for

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Speaker 2: raising change as opposed to giving around just a black

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Speaker 2: eye militarily, then that might be a little bit more

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Speaker 2: questionable that support. But look, I think at the moment

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Speaker 2: the countries that are really learned about what the US

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Speaker 2: might be doing are actually the Gulf States. They are

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Speaker 2: nervous because they don't like the Iranian regime. They're womanly Sunni,

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Speaker 2: not shear as iran Is, but they do fear that

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Speaker 2: what will replace the regime if it's knocked off. They're

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Speaker 2: more concerned about the vacuum and the uncertainty that that

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Speaker 2: could create, rather than the Iranian regimes surviving intact. So

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Speaker 2: it's interesting that those countries are very wary of the

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Speaker 2: US going ahead, and they've cautioned Donald Trump against it.

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Speaker 1: Were at what feels like a very dangerous point for

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Speaker 1: the whole world right now. Cam and conflict in the

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Speaker 1: Middle East of course has been going on for thousands

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Speaker 1: of years. But can we date this back to her

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Speaker 1: master's attack on Israel in October twenty twenty three? You know,

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Speaker 1: is that what has really precipitated these massive escalation intensions

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Speaker 1: that now see two totally different countries about to have

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Speaker 1: a war.

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Speaker 2: Yes, absolutely, I mean it looks certainly there were a

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Speaker 2: huge tensions between the US and Iran and Israel and

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Speaker 2: Iran prior to that, you know, with that targeted assassinations,

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Speaker 2: muscled operations against Iran. But the real trigger was the

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Speaker 2: October seven massacre of Israelis and the subsequent war in Gaza.

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Speaker 2: Iran made some very bad calculations. They asked Hezbolah to

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Speaker 2: start attacking Israel from their Lebanese stronghold. That ultimately resulted

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Speaker 2: in Israel crushing Hezbela. Obviously, Israel has largely crushed a

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Speaker 2: mass Israel has struck out the Houthi Rebels, another Iranian

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Speaker 2: backed oxy force in Yemen. Iran's proxies are being badly weakened.

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Speaker 2: And then Iran itself of course was humiliated frankly with

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Speaker 2: their impotent response through the US and Israeli attack on

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Speaker 2: the nuclear sides and the Israeli attack in the previous

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Speaker 2: year in twenty twenty four. So Iran has made a

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Speaker 2: series of miscalculations ever since October seven, twenty twenty three,

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Speaker 2: which have greatly weakened its position in the region, and that,

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Speaker 2: frankly is why Donald Trump and the Israelis seeing an opportunity,

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Speaker 2: historic opportunity in their eyes, to actually remove this regime

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Speaker 2: at a time when it's never been weaker since nineteen

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Speaker 2: seventy nine when it took power.

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Speaker 1: The Iranian regime is of course very powerful within Iran itself.

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Speaker 1: It's got a lot of influence outside the country, even

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Speaker 1: as far as Australia. The Australian has been doing a

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Speaker 1: lot of reporting about what life is like for the

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Speaker 1: diaspora Iranians who've come here over the past decades, who've

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Speaker 1: fled the regime and who are now under surveillance and

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Speaker 1: really under the thum of Iran even though they are

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Speaker 1: thousands of kilometers away. On Thursday, The Australian revealed that

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Speaker 1: the daughter of a sanctioned Iranian military leader, someone who's

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Speaker 1: very to the top, has been living in Australia for

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Speaker 1: years and studying for health qualifications that I think has

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Speaker 1: sent a chill through the diaspora community here. What's your

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Speaker 1: sense of how long Iran's reach really is and what

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Speaker 1: they could do in Australia if they wanted to.

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Speaker 2: Iran's reach is quite surprising, I think when you look

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Speaker 2: at it, I mean, it is a long way from Australia,

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Speaker 2: and yet they have tentacles in Australia. Iran has people

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Speaker 2: in Australia who are sympathetic to the regime who have

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Speaker 2: been tasked to keep an eye on Iranian Australians here.

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Speaker 2: They're Iranians in Australia who do not like the regime.

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Speaker 2: They've effectively got their own spy FORRSE if you like

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Speaker 2: here in Australia. And we've seen that Iran has pushed

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Speaker 2: things in Australia so much so. Today's has accused Iran

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Speaker 2: of organizing anti Semitic attacks on Jewish targets. We had

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Speaker 2: the attack on the Israeli do Synagogue in Melbourne and

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Speaker 2: in late twenty twenty four and also int of Sydney restaurant.

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Speaker 1: Police have declared a fire bombing attack on the israel

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Speaker 1: synagogue in Melbourne Southeast last week as a likely terrorist incident.

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Speaker 2: Police art tonight asking for your help after a cafe

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Speaker 2: in Bondai went up in flames early this morning and

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Speaker 2: ACO is looking into other possible attacks. So that just

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Speaker 2: shows clear what a reach the Iranian regime has and

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Speaker 2: how much they care about exporting their kind of Islam

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Speaker 2: to other countries and putting down dissidents who opposed their

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Speaker 2: regime and who they see as a threat, even though

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Speaker 2: they are clearly across the other side of the world.

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Speaker 2: So Iran has been very active and I think surprisingly active.

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Speaker 2: I think it's really called a lot of people by

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Speaker 2: surprise how active they have been in distant countries like Australia.

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Speaker 1: We've talked before on the Front Cam about how if

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Speaker 1: the Iranian regime fell and left a vacuum in Iran itself,

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Speaker 1: that that would create a whole set of new problems

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Speaker 1: and concerns.

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Speaker 2: You know, who would.

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Speaker 1: Fill the void if that regime fell. There would also

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Speaker 1: be networks of people all around the world who would

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Speaker 1: be unmoored from that powerful regime. Here in Australia, the

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Speaker 1: people who allegedly are intimidating other Iranians what does that

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Speaker 1: mean for Australia's own domestic security picture.

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Speaker 2: Well, that's right, there would be a lot of people

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Speaker 2: who will suddenly be wondering who their masters are. Of Course,

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Speaker 2: the real problem here, Claire, as you alluded to, is

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Speaker 2: that there is no democratic opposition as such within Iran.

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Speaker 2: Anyone who potentially would be palatable to the West to

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Speaker 2: take over it in Iran is simply not in Iran.

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Speaker 2: And so to trouble is that a regiing falls, who's

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Speaker 2: going to replace it? One presumes it would be someone

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Speaker 2: perhaps a commander from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, but

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Speaker 2: who of course would have been sympathetic to the regime

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Speaker 2: at this minute. So this is the problem, and this

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Speaker 2: is what the Americans don't know. This is why some

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Speaker 2: people are very cautious about the match they're trying to

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Speaker 2: topple the regime, because they simply don't know what comes

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Speaker 2: next to It's not like there's a neat fit to

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Speaker 2: put in there to replace the Eye Tollers. There really isn't,

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Speaker 2: And no matter what anyone said, it would be a

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Speaker 2: period of complete chaos and transition where no one really

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Speaker 2: knew what was happening. In Iran. That's a risk which

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Speaker 2: the Americans and Donald Trump will be taking if they

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Speaker 2: do try and actually take out the regime.

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Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart, thank you very much, pleasure. Cameron Stewart is

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Speaker 1: The Australian's chief international correspondent. You can check out all

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Speaker 1: our unrivaled journalism from around the world right now at

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Speaker 1: the Australian dot com dot au