1 00:00:01,680 --> 00:00:06,280 Speaker 1: From the Newsroom, that news still come to you. Is 2 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:09,680 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris likely to beat Donald Trump in November? Who 3 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:12,080 Speaker 1: will she pick to be her running mate? And why 4 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: hasn't Barack Obama endorsed Kamala Harris so far? There's some 5 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,360 Speaker 1: of the big questions we'll answer in today's special episode 6 00:00:18,360 --> 00:00:21,280 Speaker 1: of From the Newsroom. I'll tell you what. It's been 7 00:00:21,280 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 1: a while two weeks in America, hasn't it. There was, 8 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:26,439 Speaker 1: of course, that assassination attempt on Donald Trump. Take a 9 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: look at what happened. Then a week later this happened. 10 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 2: We have some breaking news as President Joe Biden has 11 00:00:38,840 --> 00:00:41,559 Speaker 2: just announced that he is dropping out of the twenty 12 00:00:41,640 --> 00:00:43,639 Speaker 2: twenty four presidential race. 13 00:00:43,560 --> 00:00:46,360 Speaker 1: And Joe Biden then endorsed Kamala Harris just. 14 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 2: One day into her campaign for presidency. Vice President Kamala 15 00:00:49,760 --> 00:00:53,760 Speaker 2: Harris has enough delegates to secure her nomination. She is 16 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,200 Speaker 2: not officially the nominee yet, that won't happen for a 17 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:57,040 Speaker 2: few more weeks. 18 00:00:57,120 --> 00:00:59,760 Speaker 1: So where do things stand at the moment? Well, joining 19 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 1: me now is doctor Emma Shorters from the Australia Institute, 20 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 1: who's an expert in US politics. Emma, to begin with, 21 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:07,760 Speaker 1: is it's safe to say that Kamala Harris has a 22 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 1: better shot of beating Donald Trump than Joe Biden did. 23 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:12,199 Speaker 3: It's certainly looking that way. 24 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 4: Like it's a little bit too early to tell, but 25 00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:19,039 Speaker 4: I think the enthusiasm behind Harris that emerged almost immediately 26 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:22,720 Speaker 4: after Biden endorsed her has been really something to watch. 27 00:01:22,720 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 4: You know, she rose in the first twenty four hours. 28 00:01:24,920 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 4: She rose over eighty million dollars, which is a pretty 29 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:31,680 Speaker 4: good indication I think of how much mobilization there might 30 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:34,600 Speaker 4: be and how unified party is behind her. So the 31 00:01:34,680 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 4: signs are certainly much better for Harris than they were 32 00:01:37,319 --> 00:01:37,800 Speaker 4: for Biden. 33 00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:40,959 Speaker 1: Do we have any indication from polls yet about who's 34 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:43,320 Speaker 1: doing better out of Harris and Trump. 35 00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:45,399 Speaker 3: Look, it's a little bit early to tell. 36 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 4: I think the polls, like the rest of us, kind 37 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 4: of haven't caught up with everything that's happened in American politics, 38 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 4: including that assassination attempt, which you know actually wasn't even. 39 00:01:53,640 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 3: That long ago. 40 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 4: But the early signs are that the polls are tightening, 41 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 4: So Harris is ing Trump. I think where it will 42 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:04,480 Speaker 4: matter though, is not in those national polls, because of 43 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:06,800 Speaker 4: course that's not how you win the presidency. You don't 44 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:09,320 Speaker 4: win through the popular vote, It'll be in the state 45 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:11,080 Speaker 4: by state polls. And I think it's a little bit 46 00:02:11,120 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 4: early yet to see what they're doing. 47 00:02:13,800 --> 00:02:16,320 Speaker 1: Now. Mister Trump was meant to have a second debate 48 00:02:16,360 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 1: against Joe Biden. He told reporters earlier this week that 49 00:02:19,520 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: he'd be willing to debate Kamala Harris, but stop short 50 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: of committing to a planned event in September. Well, I 51 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: haven't agreed to anything. 52 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 2: I agree to a debate with Joe Biden, but I 53 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,120 Speaker 2: want to debate her and Sti'll be no different because 54 00:02:32,120 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 2: they have the same policies. 55 00:02:33,720 --> 00:02:36,080 Speaker 1: Emma, do you think Trump would be nervous about a 56 00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 1: potential debate with Kamala Harris? 57 00:02:38,200 --> 00:02:39,960 Speaker 3: It certainly looks that way. 58 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:42,960 Speaker 4: You know, his early comments kind of suggested he wouldn't 59 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:45,519 Speaker 4: be willing to debate her at all, and he seems 60 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 4: to be, like the tantrum seems to be escalating around 61 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:52,400 Speaker 4: Harris now being the presumptive nominee. You know, he's complaining 62 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 4: really on a number of fronts, which suggests to me 63 00:02:55,280 --> 00:02:58,120 Speaker 4: that he is nervous, and I think he should be 64 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:01,080 Speaker 4: like you know that every indication is that he should be, 65 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 4: especially given that Harris is so strong on issues that 66 00:03:04,560 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 4: he really struggles with, like reproductive rights. 67 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:07,720 Speaker 3: For example. 68 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:10,600 Speaker 4: So you know, I think the indications are he's a 69 00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:12,600 Speaker 4: bit nervous, and I think he's right to be. 70 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:15,200 Speaker 1: What do you reckon Will there be a second debate? 71 00:03:15,240 --> 00:03:17,880 Speaker 1: Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump? 72 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 4: I kind of think there has to be, Like he 73 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 4: can't really back out of one without looking like he's 74 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:26,639 Speaker 4: too scared to do it. And we know that, you know, 75 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:30,000 Speaker 4: Trump hates looking weak. That's you know, being kind of 76 00:03:30,040 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 4: like hyper masculine is super important to me. So I 77 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 4: expect there probably will be a debate and it'll probably 78 00:03:37,000 --> 00:03:38,840 Speaker 4: be messy and embarrassing. 79 00:03:39,960 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 1: Now, at the time of recording this podcast, Kamala Harris 80 00:03:42,640 --> 00:03:45,040 Speaker 1: hasn't yet announced her running mates. All are the most 81 00:03:45,120 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 1: likely candidates. 82 00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 4: This is a really interesting one because we don't actually know, 83 00:03:49,920 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 4: Like lots of analysis is suggesting that she needs to 84 00:03:52,920 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 4: pick a man, and probably a white man, to I guess, 85 00:03:56,880 --> 00:04:00,280 Speaker 4: reassure voters who might be nervous about voting for a 86 00:04:00,320 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 4: woman of color. And that's that's an unfortunate thing about 87 00:04:03,960 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 4: American politics, and so some of the names coming up are, 88 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 4: for example, Senator Mike Kelly, who's from Arizona, from a 89 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:12,160 Speaker 4: swing state. 90 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,080 Speaker 3: Another name is Gretchen Whitmer, who's. 91 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:18,000 Speaker 4: The governor of Michigan, And that would be pretty extraordinary 92 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 4: to have two women on the ticket, But the reality 93 00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:22,520 Speaker 4: is we don't know. The campaign will be making all 94 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:26,120 Speaker 4: kinds of calculations about you know, what the polling says, 95 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:30,159 Speaker 4: what party politics requires, and you know who Harris would 96 00:04:30,160 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 4: actually work well with. So there's lots of things to consider. 97 00:04:33,760 --> 00:04:36,039 Speaker 4: But who she picks will be a really big indication 98 00:04:36,200 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 4: of both you know, how they think the polls are going, 99 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:40,880 Speaker 4: and what kind of administration she would run if she's 100 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 4: to win in November, And. 101 00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:44,680 Speaker 1: Can I ask when would it be most likely that 102 00:04:44,720 --> 00:04:47,040 Speaker 1: she would announce her pick for vice president. 103 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:50,279 Speaker 4: I expect it would be at the Democratic National Convention, 104 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:53,240 Speaker 4: which is towards the end of August. That's you know, 105 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:55,760 Speaker 4: that's what Trump did, He announced his vice presidential pick 106 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 4: at the convention, So it's usually kind of they like 107 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 4: to build up the anticipation with the announcements and make 108 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:04,400 Speaker 4: it a big media moment, so it might come earlier, 109 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 4: but I expect it'll bit at the convention. 110 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: Stick around. In just a moment, Emma will reveal why 111 00:05:09,040 --> 00:05:16,760 Speaker 1: Barack Obama hasn't yet endorsed Kamala Harris. I'm chatting to 112 00:05:16,800 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 1: doctor Emma Shorts now I'd like to ask about Barack Obama. 113 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 1: A bunch of senior Democrats have come out and endorsed 114 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:26,039 Speaker 1: Kamala Harris, including Bill and Hillary Clinton and Nancy Pelosi. 115 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 1: But one person who hasn't is Barack Obama. Why would 116 00:05:29,560 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: that be? 117 00:05:30,800 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 4: I think there are a number of potential reasons for this. 118 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,479 Speaker 4: One of them is that Biden and Obama were, of 119 00:05:36,520 --> 00:05:40,280 Speaker 4: course very close. Biden was Obama's vice president, and it's 120 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:43,200 Speaker 4: possible that Obama was kind of keep wanting to keep 121 00:05:43,480 --> 00:05:46,960 Speaker 4: the spotlight on Biden initially and focus on his legacy 122 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 4: and his achievement and wait a little while before kind 123 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:53,279 Speaker 4: of pivoting to Harris. And it's also true that Obama's 124 00:05:53,360 --> 00:05:56,159 Speaker 4: endorsement carries a huge amount of weight, like it's really 125 00:05:56,160 --> 00:05:59,320 Speaker 4: really influential, So he may be holding off so he's 126 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,880 Speaker 4: not seen to be influencing people's decisions too much. But 127 00:06:03,120 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 4: it might also be, you know, to make that big 128 00:06:05,240 --> 00:06:08,359 Speaker 4: media splash, you know, as I said, an Obama endorsement 129 00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:11,200 Speaker 4: would be huge for Harris because her campaign also has 130 00:06:11,279 --> 00:06:13,760 Speaker 4: kind of Obama two thousand and eight vibes, you know, 131 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,279 Speaker 4: that same sort of excitement, and so bringing him in 132 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 4: at a critical time will have a big impact. 133 00:06:19,440 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 3: And see it. 134 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 4: And he's reporting this morning at the time of recording, 135 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 4: that Obama is likely to endorse her pretty soon. 136 00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:27,599 Speaker 1: Last question, and I'm sorry to put you on the 137 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 1: spot like this, but who do you think is going 138 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 1: to win the election in November? 139 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:36,719 Speaker 4: It's an eternity till November, like anything could happen. And 140 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 4: if you'd ask me this a week ago, I would 141 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 4: have said, like, with a fair amount of certainty that 142 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:44,280 Speaker 4: Trump was going to win, and I'm a lot less 143 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:48,159 Speaker 4: certain now. I think as pole stand it's still potentially 144 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:52,839 Speaker 4: still likely to be Trump. But the enthusiasm around Harris 145 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 4: has been I think surprising to lots of us. So 146 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:58,279 Speaker 4: I do think Harris could do it. That's not an answer, 147 00:06:58,360 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 4: but that's what I did. 148 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 1: Doctor Emma short Us from the Astralia Institute, thanks so 149 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:03,920 Speaker 1: much for chatting to from the newsroom. 150 00:07:04,440 --> 00:07:05,680 Speaker 3: My pleasure. Thanks for having me. 151 00:07:05,800 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 1: It's gonna be a good show, I reckon now you 152 00:07:07,480 --> 00:07:09,520 Speaker 1: are now up tonight with the Ltters from the newsroom, 153 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: follow us, subscribe to from the Newsroom, wherever you get 154 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 1: your podcasts.