1 00:00:03,990 --> 00:00:07,409 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear and Greed business interview. I'm Sean Aylmer. Last 2 00:00:07,410 --> 00:00:09,629 Sean Aylmer: week was the busiest week of earnings season, and we 3 00:00:09,630 --> 00:00:12,179 Sean Aylmer: saw a real mixed bag of results. I wanted to 4 00:00:12,179 --> 00:00:14,519 Sean Aylmer: check in with one of our favorite analysts who last 5 00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:16,379 Sean Aylmer: time we spoke, set a new record for the most 6 00:00:16,379 --> 00:00:19,230 Sean Aylmer: companies mentioned in a single interview, I think. Remember, this 7 00:00:19,230 --> 00:00:22,020 Sean Aylmer: is general information only and you should seek professional advice before 8 00:00:22,020 --> 00:00:25,259 Sean Aylmer: making investment decisions. Ben Gilbert is the Head of Australian 9 00:00:25,259 --> 00:00:29,160 Sean Aylmer: research at Jarden, leading their research team and consumer sector 10 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:31,470 Sean Aylmer: coverage. Ben, and welcome back to Fear and Greed. 11 00:00:32,219 --> 00:00:33,570 Ben Gilbert: Thanks Sean. Thank you for having me. 12 00:00:34,350 --> 00:00:37,019 Sean Aylmer: You cover a lot of household names, not necessarily huge 13 00:00:37,019 --> 00:00:40,019 Sean Aylmer: stocks, some of these, but certainly household names because we see them 14 00:00:40,019 --> 00:00:43,739 Sean Aylmer: in the shopping malls and things like that. Broadly, how 15 00:00:43,740 --> 00:00:46,409 Sean Aylmer: do you think, and I suppose I'm thinking about retailers 16 00:00:46,409 --> 00:00:49,979 Sean Aylmer: here now, how do you think they've fared this reporting season? 17 00:00:50,639 --> 00:00:53,279 Ben Gilbert: Look, I think it's been a reporting season of the haves 18 00:00:53,279 --> 00:00:56,790 Ben Gilbert: and the have nots. It's been very polarizing. If companies 19 00:00:56,790 --> 00:01:00,090 Ben Gilbert: are coming through and delivering or exceeding expectations, they're typically 20 00:01:00,090 --> 00:01:03,480 Ben Gilbert: going up. If they're missing, albeit marginally or there's some 21 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:06,089 Ben Gilbert: concerns over the quality of the result, be that around 22 00:01:06,090 --> 00:01:08,280 Ben Gilbert: the strength of their cash flow or how strong they've 23 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:11,999 Ben Gilbert: traded post Christmas, they're getting hit pretty hard. So it's 24 00:01:12,000 --> 00:01:13,740 Ben Gilbert: very much been a period of the haves and the 25 00:01:13,740 --> 00:01:14,850 Ben Gilbert: have nots thus far. 26 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:17,790 Sean Aylmer: Okay. One of the things that's come up a bit, and maybe 27 00:01:18,209 --> 00:01:20,190 Sean Aylmer: not so much with the smaller companies, but certainly with 28 00:01:20,190 --> 00:01:21,990 Sean Aylmer: some of the bigger ones, we see it at Woolies 29 00:01:21,990 --> 00:01:25,889 Sean Aylmer: and Coles. Qantas was another one. Just that fine line 30 00:01:25,889 --> 00:01:30,959 Sean Aylmer: between delivering returns for investors and value for customers, big 31 00:01:30,959 --> 00:01:33,509 Sean Aylmer: competition issues. I don't really want to get into the nitty- 32 00:01:33,510 --> 00:01:36,300 Sean Aylmer: gritty of the supermarkets and Qantas and stuff like that. 33 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,630 Sean Aylmer: But am I making it up when I just say 34 00:01:39,630 --> 00:01:41,759 Sean Aylmer: it seems to be a bit more prevalent? We're talking about it 35 00:01:41,759 --> 00:01:43,589 Sean Aylmer: a bit more now than normal. 36 00:01:44,219 --> 00:01:46,798 Ben Gilbert: Yeah, look, I think it definitely is. When you've got 37 00:01:47,100 --> 00:01:49,590 Ben Gilbert: cost of living pressures, when people are seeing their mortgages 38 00:01:49,590 --> 00:01:51,720 Ben Gilbert: go up, when they're seeing their shopping basket go up, 39 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:54,300 Ben Gilbert: when they're seeing their affairs and insurance and effectively everything 40 00:01:54,300 --> 00:01:58,200 Ben Gilbert: else rising, it just puts more pressure on household budgets, 41 00:01:58,200 --> 00:02:01,230 Ben Gilbert: puts more pressure on families, and just, I think generally 42 00:02:01,679 --> 00:02:03,450 Ben Gilbert: it just makes life a little bit more challenging in 43 00:02:03,450 --> 00:02:05,999 Ben Gilbert: terms of what's coming next. You're always going to look 44 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:08,430 Ben Gilbert: at who's putting those or where you've seen those pressures 45 00:02:08,430 --> 00:02:10,830 Ben Gilbert: coming from, and you're going to look back at those 46 00:02:10,830 --> 00:02:13,470 Ben Gilbert: names that it is. So as you mentioned, Woolies and 47 00:02:13,470 --> 00:02:17,339 Ben Gilbert: Qantas, et cetera are getting some increased news for around, 48 00:02:17,340 --> 00:02:19,858 Ben Gilbert: and there's definitely a lot of chatter around the grocery 49 00:02:19,860 --> 00:02:22,919 Ben Gilbert: inquiry or there's actually nine happening at the moment and 50 00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:24,299 Ben Gilbert: that's going to play out over the next little while. 51 00:02:24,299 --> 00:02:27,150 Ben Gilbert: But ultimately, I think the supermarkets are putting a lot 52 00:02:27,150 --> 00:02:29,430 Ben Gilbert: of money back into price. But it's just a tough 53 00:02:29,430 --> 00:02:31,889 Ben Gilbert: backdrop when you've got a lot of global issues that 54 00:02:31,889 --> 00:02:34,709 Ben Gilbert: are putting upwards pressure on inputs and you're getting wages 55 00:02:34,710 --> 00:02:35,970 Ben Gilbert: up. Everything's going up at the moment. 56 00:02:36,599 --> 00:02:38,790 Sean Aylmer: Okay, so let's jump into some of the actual stocks 57 00:02:38,790 --> 00:02:41,940 Sean Aylmer: and particularly the retail stocks. Let's start with super retail 58 00:02:41,940 --> 00:02:44,760 Sean Aylmer: group one that we all know because of Super Cheap 59 00:02:44,760 --> 00:02:47,040 Sean Aylmer: Auto and BCF and a bunch of stores like that 60 00:02:47,040 --> 00:02:48,600 Sean Aylmer: they run, how'd they end up? 61 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:53,010 Ben Gilbert: Look, super retail have done a phenomenal job over the 62 00:02:53,010 --> 00:02:55,200 Ben Gilbert: last couple of years. And I think what we've seen is 63 00:02:55,889 --> 00:02:58,949 Ben Gilbert: that Anthony and the team there have been very consistent 64 00:02:58,949 --> 00:03:02,280 Ben Gilbert: in their strategy and they've delivered on that. They've continued 65 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:05,070 Ben Gilbert: to invest across all their brands around things like loyalty. 66 00:03:05,430 --> 00:03:08,639 Ben Gilbert: They launched a new loyalty program for Rebel Sport just 67 00:03:08,639 --> 00:03:11,280 Ben Gilbert: prior to Christmas, so I'd recommend everyone goes out and 68 00:03:11,280 --> 00:03:14,459 Ben Gilbert: gets onto that. You get points that effectively creates some 69 00:03:14,460 --> 00:03:17,939 Ben Gilbert: currency to get some better pricing next time. And what 70 00:03:17,940 --> 00:03:20,010 Ben Gilbert: you've seen is have been very consistent. And as a 71 00:03:20,010 --> 00:03:22,709 Ben Gilbert: consequence, they're really listening and trying to understand what customers 72 00:03:22,710 --> 00:03:26,490 Ben Gilbert: want and they've come out with effectively an upgrade in 73 00:03:26,490 --> 00:03:29,939 Ben Gilbert: January. They've come out and they've beat that guidance range 74 00:03:30,150 --> 00:03:32,790 Ben Gilbert: yesterday and they've provided a trading update that while it 75 00:03:32,790 --> 00:03:36,059 Ben Gilbert: was a little bit softer with companies or banners like 76 00:03:36,059 --> 00:03:38,640 Ben Gilbert: Rebel Sport was down five percent in January. You saw 77 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,910 Ben Gilbert: some declines coming through in BCF as well. They were 78 00:03:41,910 --> 00:03:45,689 Ben Gilbert: generally pretty optimistic. And again, very consistent in their messaging, 79 00:03:45,840 --> 00:03:47,670 Ben Gilbert: as well the stock was off a little bit yesterday. 80 00:03:48,210 --> 00:03:50,670 Ben Gilbert: It's had a nice little bounce again days and running 81 00:03:50,670 --> 00:03:53,519 Ben Gilbert: up again now. And look, we actually upgraded our recommendation 82 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:55,530 Ben Gilbert: yesterday. We think things are starting to look a little 83 00:03:55,530 --> 00:03:55,920 Ben Gilbert: bit better. 84 00:03:56,460 --> 00:03:59,370 Sean Aylmer: Okay. So who else would you fit into that category of the 85 00:03:59,370 --> 00:04:02,370 Sean Aylmer: haves alongside Super Retail Group? 86 00:04:02,850 --> 00:04:05,309 Ben Gilbert: Look, I think the haves, you look at names like JB Hi- 87 00:04:05,309 --> 00:04:09,179 Ben Gilbert: Fi, look at groups like Lovisa yesterday. You look at 88 00:04:09,540 --> 00:04:12,449 Ben Gilbert: other names like Universal, they had a pretty solid result. 89 00:04:12,449 --> 00:04:15,390 Ben Gilbert: Temple & Webster is another company that's absolutely flying at the 90 00:04:15,390 --> 00:04:18,210 Ben Gilbert: moment. And what these companies are doing I think is 91 00:04:18,210 --> 00:04:20,370 Ben Gilbert: just putting products in front of people that they want. 92 00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:23,789 Ben Gilbert: And as a consequence, they're willing to buy and transact 93 00:04:23,790 --> 00:04:25,980 Ben Gilbert: when they go into stores or go online and they're 94 00:04:25,980 --> 00:04:28,889 Ben Gilbert: coming back again. So they're definitely a few names I 95 00:04:28,889 --> 00:04:31,650 Ben Gilbert: think have done very well. And West Farmers probably the 96 00:04:31,650 --> 00:04:34,170 Ben Gilbert: biggest of the... It's not really a discretionary retailer, it's 97 00:04:34,170 --> 00:04:37,289 Ben Gilbert: a conglomerate. But you look at Kmart, had an absolutely 98 00:04:37,290 --> 00:04:41,309 Ben Gilbert: phenomenal result. And Anko, which is their brand that they 99 00:04:41,309 --> 00:04:42,930 Ben Gilbert: created a number of years ago, is now an 8. 100 00:04:43,259 --> 00:04:46,140 Ben Gilbert: 5 billion dollar brand on an annual basis. It's enormous. 101 00:04:46,619 --> 00:04:50,820 Sean Aylmer: Wow. What I did notice, some of the packaging companies, I'm digressing 102 00:04:50,820 --> 00:04:54,089 Sean Aylmer: a little bit here, Anko, Aurora, some of those maybe 103 00:04:54,089 --> 00:04:56,099 Sean Aylmer: not quite as good. I think Brambles is probably the 104 00:04:56,099 --> 00:04:58,949 Sean Aylmer: opposite, that's the exception to my rule here. But the 105 00:04:58,950 --> 00:05:01,259 Sean Aylmer: packaging companies, and I was talking to an analyst and 106 00:05:01,259 --> 00:05:04,559 Sean Aylmer: said, actually retailers are just being a lot smarter about 107 00:05:04,559 --> 00:05:06,809 Sean Aylmer: how they manage inventories. You've got a bunch of companies 108 00:05:06,809 --> 00:05:10,200 Sean Aylmer: like Cettire and Temple & Webster who actually don't have inventory. 109 00:05:10,200 --> 00:05:11,910 Sean Aylmer: So you've got that crowd. But even those who do 110 00:05:11,910 --> 00:05:14,970 Sean Aylmer: have inventories just seem to be managing them better. 111 00:05:15,570 --> 00:05:19,440 Ben Gilbert: Yeah, well, there's a couple little catchphrases or terminologies that were 112 00:05:19,440 --> 00:05:24,660 Ben Gilbert: coined through COVID that we've moved on from. So just in time versus just in 113 00:05:24,660 --> 00:05:28,200 Ben Gilbert: case. And what happened through COVID because of supply chain 114 00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:30,600 Ben Gilbert: challenges, a lot of companies moved to just in case. 115 00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:33,270 Ben Gilbert: Just in case being that if there was another delay 116 00:05:33,270 --> 00:05:35,880 Ben Gilbert: in a shipment, if they couldn't get some product in 117 00:05:35,880 --> 00:05:38,099 Ben Gilbert: because a factory was closed because of COVID, they were 118 00:05:38,099 --> 00:05:41,549 Ben Gilbert: holding more stock. As we've moved into a more normal 119 00:05:41,549 --> 00:05:44,248 Ben Gilbert: world, if there is such a thing, we're moving much more back into just 120 00:05:45,029 --> 00:05:47,760 Ben Gilbert: in time, i. e. they'll minimize how much stock they're 121 00:05:47,760 --> 00:05:50,849 Ben Gilbert: holding, which then reduces their risk of needing to potentially 122 00:05:50,849 --> 00:05:53,849 Ben Gilbert: discount it later if it doesn't sell. And so what 123 00:05:53,849 --> 00:05:55,979 Ben Gilbert: you're typically seeing now is people trying to hold less 124 00:05:55,980 --> 00:05:58,409 Ben Gilbert: stock, which means there's less to mind for warehousing, which 125 00:05:58,410 --> 00:06:00,539 Ben Gilbert: means there's probably less inventory in the system for some of 126 00:06:00,539 --> 00:06:03,089 Ben Gilbert: those packaging companies. So there's a bit of a timing 127 00:06:03,089 --> 00:06:05,820 Ben Gilbert: or a catch- up, if you like, in some of those stock positions. 128 00:06:06,300 --> 00:06:07,979 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Ben. We'll be back in a minute. 129 00:06:14,309 --> 00:06:17,519 Sean Aylmer: I'm speaking to Ben Gilbert, Head of Australian Research at Jarden. 130 00:06:19,169 --> 00:06:21,270 Sean Aylmer: Okay. What the have nots? What about the companies that 131 00:06:21,270 --> 00:06:22,950 Sean Aylmer: have disappointed this earnings season? 132 00:06:24,540 --> 00:06:26,099 Ben Gilbert: Yeah, look, I think there's been a few, and it's 133 00:06:26,099 --> 00:06:28,768 Ben Gilbert: interesting because it's been some of the bigger names. So 134 00:06:28,770 --> 00:06:32,009 Ben Gilbert: things like Woolworths. Woolworths is a great business. I think 135 00:06:32,009 --> 00:06:35,008 Ben Gilbert: they're doing some really forward things with respect to their 136 00:06:35,010 --> 00:06:39,960 Ben Gilbert: loyalty programs, their member pricing, et cetera. But they're definitely getting hit 137 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:42,299 Ben Gilbert: a little bit harder by costs at the moment. And 138 00:06:42,300 --> 00:06:44,460 Ben Gilbert: you've obviously had a CEO change in there to boot 139 00:06:44,940 --> 00:06:49,289 Ben Gilbert: with Brad retiring. And look, I think what you're seeing 140 00:06:49,290 --> 00:06:51,389 Ben Gilbert: is that some of these companies that might be bigger, 141 00:06:51,389 --> 00:06:53,879 Ben Gilbert: more high frequency, that probably have some less ability to 142 00:06:53,879 --> 00:06:56,789 Ben Gilbert: flex around costs are getting knocked around a little bit 143 00:06:56,790 --> 00:06:59,700 Ben Gilbert: more. And you look at something like Accent today as well, 144 00:06:59,700 --> 00:07:03,779 Ben Gilbert: which is the owner of Athlete's Foot, Glue Height, a 145 00:07:03,779 --> 00:07:06,359 Ben Gilbert: number of these stores has also had a bit of a 146 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:09,210 Ben Gilbert: cost challenge. So the companies we're finding that some of 147 00:07:09,210 --> 00:07:11,219 Ben Gilbert: the have nots are the ones that are really feeling 148 00:07:11,219 --> 00:07:13,530 Ben Gilbert: the pinch of some of the higher costs. I wouldn't 149 00:07:13,530 --> 00:07:16,020 Ben Gilbert: say they're not doing a good job managing costs, but 150 00:07:16,020 --> 00:07:18,090 Ben Gilbert: they're probably seeing more of an impact flowing through the 151 00:07:18,090 --> 00:07:20,730 Ben Gilbert: P&L. And as a consequence, it's creating a little bit 152 00:07:20,730 --> 00:07:23,219 Ben Gilbert: less certainty around the outlook for profit. 153 00:07:23,940 --> 00:07:26,609 Sean Aylmer: What about travel stocks? We've spoken to you before now, 154 00:07:27,030 --> 00:07:30,719 Sean Aylmer: I think we still have Flight Centre to report this 155 00:07:30,719 --> 00:07:33,390 Sean Aylmer: on Tuesday, so we've still got a ways to go 156 00:07:33,390 --> 00:07:35,550 Sean Aylmer: there. But some of the ones that have reported so 157 00:07:35,550 --> 00:07:37,739 Sean Aylmer: far, what's that sector looking like? Obviously Qantas is the 158 00:07:37,740 --> 00:07:40,349 Sean Aylmer: big one there. But beyond that, Hello World Travel and 159 00:07:40,349 --> 00:07:40,860 Sean Aylmer: those ones. 160 00:07:41,190 --> 00:07:43,620 Ben Gilbert: Yeah, so look, we've had a Hello World and Corporate 161 00:07:43,620 --> 00:07:47,520 Ben Gilbert: Travel that have reported. Corporate Travel had a pretty sizable 162 00:07:47,520 --> 00:07:51,030 Ben Gilbert: downgrade relating to some macro challenges out of the Middle 163 00:07:51,030 --> 00:07:53,730 Ben Gilbert: East, and also a contract that hasn't quite been as 164 00:07:53,730 --> 00:07:56,820 Ben Gilbert: fruitful as they're expecting out of the UK. So it 165 00:07:56,820 --> 00:07:59,429 Ben Gilbert: was more company specific. Hello World, they had a pretty 166 00:07:59,429 --> 00:08:03,750 Ben Gilbert: good result. They've come out and they've reiterated guidance. And 167 00:08:03,750 --> 00:08:05,789 Ben Gilbert: importantly, if you look at what they're talking to at 168 00:08:05,789 --> 00:08:09,450 Ben Gilbert: the moment is that they're seeing definitely some benefits from the 169 00:08:09,450 --> 00:08:12,030 Ben Gilbert: boomers coming and going on their holidays. And I think 170 00:08:12,030 --> 00:08:14,370 Ben Gilbert: we talked about this last time, that the ski holidays, 171 00:08:14,370 --> 00:08:18,420 Ben Gilbert: spending kids inheritance holidays are going out and doing high value 172 00:08:18,630 --> 00:08:20,879 Ben Gilbert: holidays. And what that means is they'll book a cruise, 173 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:23,879 Ben Gilbert: they'll book a transfer, they'll hire a car, which is 174 00:08:23,879 --> 00:08:26,190 Ben Gilbert: all quite accretive to margin. And if you look at 175 00:08:26,190 --> 00:08:29,550 Ben Gilbert: some of the data, and it's always one of my favorite presentations to read 176 00:08:29,550 --> 00:08:31,770 Ben Gilbert: through reporting season outside of the companies I cover, of 177 00:08:31,770 --> 00:08:35,339 Ben Gilbert: course is Commonwealth Bank. You get a really good view 178 00:08:35,340 --> 00:08:37,679 Ben Gilbert: on what's happening in the economy and there was some 179 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:41,098 Ben Gilbert: great slides in there, particularly around spending by customer cohort 180 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:43,440 Ben Gilbert: and age. And if you look in there, you can 181 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:47,670 Ben Gilbert: see that the older demographics, so your 45, 55 plus spending 182 00:08:47,910 --> 00:08:50,939 Ben Gilbert: savings are going up and that's what's really helping travel. 183 00:08:51,300 --> 00:08:53,969 Ben Gilbert: So I think Flight Centre will be the big focus 184 00:08:53,969 --> 00:08:56,519 Ben Gilbert: next week with respect to that being one of the 185 00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:59,430 Ben Gilbert: larger travel names. But we're pretty positive on Flight Centre. 186 00:08:59,910 --> 00:09:03,210 Ben Gilbert: And look, I think all signs point to leisure continuing to be 187 00:09:03,210 --> 00:09:06,360 Ben Gilbert: pretty strong owing to their demographic skew towards the boomers. 188 00:09:06,870 --> 00:09:09,660 Sean Aylmer: So what have you learned from reporting season going forward, 189 00:09:09,660 --> 00:09:13,320 Sean Aylmer: Ben? What are the variables, the data points that you 190 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:15,449 Sean Aylmer: are going to keep a really close eye on given 191 00:09:15,450 --> 00:09:16,770 Sean Aylmer: what you've heard thus far? 192 00:09:17,309 --> 00:09:19,738 Ben Gilbert: Look, I think this reporting season thus far has been 193 00:09:19,739 --> 00:09:23,490 Ben Gilbert: very interesting because it's been much more around expectations versus 194 00:09:23,490 --> 00:09:27,059 Ben Gilbert: reality. And the reality is that the economy is in 195 00:09:27,059 --> 00:09:31,199 Ben Gilbert: a tough spot. We're seeing challenges with respect to per 196 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:35,309 Ben Gilbert: capita consumption. We're seeing obviously relatively high inflation, all the 197 00:09:35,309 --> 00:09:37,860 Ben Gilbert: expectations going to moderate. We're seeing cost of living pressures, 198 00:09:37,860 --> 00:09:40,530 Ben Gilbert: a whole bunch of issues. But the market had already 199 00:09:40,530 --> 00:09:43,050 Ben Gilbert: started to price that in and potentially a bit more. 200 00:09:43,710 --> 00:09:46,380 Ben Gilbert: So what I think we're finding now is that potentially, 201 00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:49,679 Ben Gilbert: whether it was positioning or expectations, were probably a little 202 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:52,320 Ben Gilbert: bit too bearish. And companies that can come in and 203 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:54,809 Ben Gilbert: meet or exceed that, and in many cases that are 204 00:09:54,809 --> 00:09:58,110 Ben Gilbert: relatively low expectations are performing much better. So I think 205 00:09:58,110 --> 00:09:59,610 Ben Gilbert: as we look forward from here, I think the key 206 00:09:59,610 --> 00:10:01,170 Ben Gilbert: test is it's going to be are we nearing the 207 00:10:01,170 --> 00:10:04,050 Ben Gilbert: bottom from a spending side? And look, we're seeing some 208 00:10:04,050 --> 00:10:05,880 Ben Gilbert: data for the last couple of weeks. It suggests that 209 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:08,160 Ben Gilbert: February spending might be a little bit better than feared. 210 00:10:08,639 --> 00:10:10,739 Ben Gilbert: So if you continue to see that curve or that 211 00:10:10,740 --> 00:10:12,840 Ben Gilbert: trough turn into a bit of an upwards trend on 212 00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:16,290 Ben Gilbert: spend, we get some more visibility or confidence around rate 213 00:10:16,290 --> 00:10:18,150 Ben Gilbert: cuts either at the end of this year or early 214 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:21,599 Ben Gilbert: into 2025. What I think that means is that a lot 215 00:10:21,599 --> 00:10:24,929 Ben Gilbert: of these discretionary names, these high beta, these ones which 216 00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:28,079 Ben Gilbert: move around a lot more could potentially continue to keep 217 00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:30,929 Ben Gilbert: doing very well, because that sets up for some pretty 218 00:10:30,929 --> 00:10:34,260 Ben Gilbert: good earnings momentum or improving earnings momentum into fiscal 25. 219 00:10:35,010 --> 00:10:36,300 Sean Aylmer: So a stock pickers market? 220 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:40,139 Ben Gilbert: I think so what was one of the headlines we used in 221 00:10:40,139 --> 00:10:42,240 Ben Gilbert: one of our reports last year was we're moving much 222 00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:45,449 Ben Gilbert: more towards a bottom up versus top down. And so 223 00:10:45,450 --> 00:10:46,708 Ben Gilbert: yeah, I think it's going to be much more of 224 00:10:46,708 --> 00:10:50,250 Ben Gilbert: a stock pickers market. Another word that I really like that's come 225 00:10:50,250 --> 00:10:53,760 Ben Gilbert: out of COVID has been bifurcation. I think we're definitely 226 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:56,340 Ben Gilbert: going to see this bifurcation of retail, be it the 227 00:10:56,340 --> 00:10:59,250 Ben Gilbert: haves and the have nots, the winners and the losers. And I 228 00:10:59,250 --> 00:11:01,110 Ben Gilbert: think it's going to be pretty pertinent in our sector. 229 00:11:01,230 --> 00:11:03,000 Ben Gilbert: And to be honest, we're already starting to see signs 230 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:04,230 Ben Gilbert: of that through this reporting season. 231 00:11:04,830 --> 00:11:06,329 Sean Aylmer: Ben, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 232 00:11:07,050 --> 00:11:07,830 Ben Gilbert: No problem at all. Thank you for having me. 233 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:11,670 Sean Aylmer: That was Ben Gilbert, Head of Australian Research at Jarden. 234 00:11:11,670 --> 00:11:13,860 Sean Aylmer: This is the Fear and Greed business interview. Remember, this 235 00:11:13,860 --> 00:11:16,740 Sean Aylmer: is general information only and you should seek professional advice 236 00:11:17,040 --> 00:11:19,860 Sean Aylmer: before making investment decisions. Join us every morning for the 237 00:11:19,860 --> 00:11:23,039 Sean Aylmer: full episode of Fear and Greed, Australia's best business podcast. 238 00:11:23,039 --> 00:11:24,508 Sean Aylmer: I'm Sean Aylmer. Enjoy your day.