1 00:00:05,559 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Business Interview. I'm Adam Lang. 2 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:12,360 Speaker 1: Headline inflation fell to two point seven percent in August, 3 00:00:12,640 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: and that's sound from three point five percent the previous month. 4 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 1: It's the first time inflation has been within the Reserve 5 00:00:18,280 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: banks two to three percent target band in almost three years. However, 6 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:25,640 Speaker 1: with much of that drop due to electricity bill rebates, 7 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 1: the focus remains on underlying inflation, the Reserve Bank's preferred measure, 8 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 1: which is not telling a great story. Today, I'm joined 9 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: by our favorite resident economist, Stephen Coucoulis, better known as 10 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:39,720 Speaker 1: the Kouk. You can find him at the Kouk dot 11 00:00:39,720 --> 00:00:43,879 Speaker 1: com and follow him on x using the handle the Kuk. Stephen, 12 00:00:44,120 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 1: delighted you've joined us. Welcome back to Fear and Greed. 13 00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:48,879 Speaker 2: Thanks Adam, and so much to talk about with that 14 00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 2: one number, the inflation number, there's so much within it. 15 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:54,720 Speaker 1: I agree now, Stephen, I mentioned the headline number at 16 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 1: two point seven percent. What's your perspective on that and 17 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 1: the underlying inflation figure of three point four percent? 18 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:05,680 Speaker 2: Faith value the headline figure. It's nice to have inflation 19 00:01:05,840 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 2: back within the two to three band. I don't think 20 00:01:07,760 --> 00:01:10,240 Speaker 2: anyone would disagree with that, and from a cost of 21 00:01:10,360 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 2: living perspective, that is the relevant issue because we the 22 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:18,960 Speaker 2: consumer are saving our electricity subsidies they are coming through 23 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:21,360 Speaker 2: on our electricity bills and some of the other you know, 24 00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,880 Speaker 2: the fifty cents that the stake coming in Queensland is 25 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:26,840 Speaker 2: charging for public transport. That had a small effect too, 26 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 2: So there were you know, a myriad of issues that 27 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 2: force that headline figured out to two point seven percent. 28 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 2: And as I said, that's good news and just as 29 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:39,560 Speaker 2: an aside before we dig into the underlying measures. The 30 00:01:39,760 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 2: RBA mandate, the RBA conduct of monetary policy, I think 31 00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,920 Speaker 2: it's called that Michelle Bullock's side with the Treasurer Jim 32 00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:52,040 Speaker 2: Chalmers back in December last year, is about inflation, not 33 00:01:52,080 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 2: trimmed mean, not underlying, It's about inflation. So that just 34 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:59,480 Speaker 2: complicates what we're about to say, no doubt on the 35 00:01:59,560 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 2: underlying into mediflation measures. 36 00:02:01,920 --> 00:02:05,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, look, I totally agree there's a lot of measures 37 00:02:05,200 --> 00:02:09,000 Speaker 1: within that two point seven number, the underlying figure despite 38 00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: the mandate for the RBA. How are you seeing that? 39 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:16,359 Speaker 2: Yeah? Look, luckily we saw ABA Governor on Tuesday afternoon 40 00:02:16,480 --> 00:02:19,600 Speaker 2: Michelle Wallock give her press conference after the rates on 41 00:02:19,680 --> 00:02:22,519 Speaker 2: whole decision that we've covered a lot over the last 42 00:02:22,520 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 2: few days, and she said that she'd look. She was 43 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 2: pleased to see the headline figure of inflation falling, but 44 00:02:29,600 --> 00:02:32,280 Speaker 2: and this is a really important part, it is not 45 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:37,120 Speaker 2: a true reflection of demand pressures in the economy, and 46 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 2: demand pressures that drive inflation both up and down. That said, 47 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 2: we've got this trimmed mean measure dropping from three point 48 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:48,519 Speaker 2: eight percent down of three point four percent, so it's 49 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 2: going in the right direction, and that sure, that's a 50 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 2: welcome sort of change in momentum too, after we had 51 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 2: that stubbornness that was stuck in the high three percent 52 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 2: range for the bulk of the first half of twenty 53 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:02,840 Speaker 2: twenty four. We're now down at three point four and 54 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 2: just look at the run rate. We're going to be 55 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 2: in the threes, the low threes in the next couple 56 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:10,800 Speaker 2: of months. But from the RBA perspective, and it's open 57 00:03:10,840 --> 00:03:12,840 Speaker 2: to debate, there's I'm going to be saying, well, look, 58 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:17,000 Speaker 2: we're pleased, but we're not quite compelled in terms of 59 00:03:17,120 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 2: adjusting monetary policy. On the back of this better news, 60 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 2: they were to see several more months of confirmation that 61 00:03:23,960 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 2: headlined underlying inflation pressures are lower. And the other thing 62 00:03:28,600 --> 00:03:30,520 Speaker 2: that's in the in their mix is, of course what 63 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 2: happens to unemployment. 64 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 1: Stephen, you've mentioned the power prices and the government rebates 65 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 1: both federal land state. The government wasn't involved in petrol prices, 66 00:03:39,600 --> 00:03:42,240 Speaker 1: but they were changed in the last quarter or last 67 00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:44,520 Speaker 1: month in particular. Do you think they've played a part 68 00:03:44,520 --> 00:03:45,920 Speaker 1: as well? And how important is that? 69 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 2: Yeah? Well, over the year they fell seven percent, and 70 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 2: just as I driver around them, I always have a 71 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 2: look at petrol prices because I'm always trying to get 72 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 2: that leaning edge on what's happening to inflation pressures, and 73 00:03:57,280 --> 00:04:00,360 Speaker 2: petrol have a reasonably significant waiting and we got there 74 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 2: are a big what do we call it a thicker 75 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:04,480 Speaker 2: shock that when prices are above two dollars a later 76 00:04:04,520 --> 00:04:07,040 Speaker 2: we think, oh, my goodness, that's that's erting my paid 77 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:09,800 Speaker 2: back at when it's down at a dollars seventy, that's okay, 78 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 2: you know, And it does have follows through implications on 79 00:04:12,720 --> 00:04:16,000 Speaker 2: transfer cost, logistics costs. You know, when the truck drives 80 00:04:16,000 --> 00:04:18,919 Speaker 2: into the supermarket full of items that we buy and sell. 81 00:04:19,160 --> 00:04:22,240 Speaker 2: When the petrol price is higher, the transport companies pass 82 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:24,479 Speaker 2: it on too, and similarly with the airlines. So the 83 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 2: fact that the oil prices come down is a really 84 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 2: important part of the headline inflation reading. But again, as 85 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:33,840 Speaker 2: we've discussed on the way up and on the way down, 86 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:38,400 Speaker 2: the RBA could set interest rates between zero ten one 87 00:04:38,480 --> 00:04:41,760 Speaker 2: hundred percent and it have no effect on the price 88 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 2: of oil around the world. This is globally determined price. 89 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:47,600 Speaker 1: Stay with me, Stephen, we'll be back in a minute. 90 00:04:54,560 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 1: I'm speaking with Stephen coocoulis, better known as the Kook. 91 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: Reserve Bank govern Shell Bullock. She has been direct the 92 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:05,120 Speaker 1: Reserve Bank focuses on underlying inflation. And fresh off the 93 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:07,760 Speaker 1: back of the RBA board meeting and the media conferences 94 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 1: you mentioned earlier this week, what do you think the 95 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 1: RBA is making of these new CPI numbers. 96 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:15,960 Speaker 2: Look, they'll be pleased. I think it's fair to say 97 00:05:15,960 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 2: that they've been a little frustrated, Like a lot of 98 00:05:18,480 --> 00:05:21,360 Speaker 2: it been about how long has taken inflation to come down, 99 00:05:21,400 --> 00:05:23,960 Speaker 2: And even though it's the headline figure, and as we discussed, 100 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 2: its electricity subsidies, transport subs these sorts of things that 101 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 2: have driven that headline figured down, as she alluded to 102 00:05:31,560 --> 00:05:34,479 Speaker 2: on Tuesday afternoon at her press conference. It is a 103 00:05:35,160 --> 00:05:38,120 Speaker 2: it is what we call it, an inflation expectations driver too. 104 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 2: If Peter can sort of see that inflation is below 105 00:05:41,360 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 2: three percent, and the media last night was covering this 106 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 2: inflation number with a great deal of gusto. And if 107 00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:50,480 Speaker 2: people say, well, inflation's below three my wages growth is 108 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,440 Speaker 2: three and a half to four percent for the first 109 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,200 Speaker 2: time in many years. To be honest, we've got this 110 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:00,720 Speaker 2: real wages just edging up a bit. You know, I 111 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:02,760 Speaker 2: don't want to get too excited, but we've got this 112 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:04,839 Speaker 2: turning point. You know, one thing that does excitedly about 113 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:08,119 Speaker 2: economics is turning points. We've got a turning point. After 114 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 2: having years and years and years of real wages declining, 115 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,080 Speaker 2: we're in the early stages of this cost of living 116 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:15,600 Speaker 2: pressure easing. And we know what that means, Adam, because 117 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 2: when cost of living pressure eases, we breed, We consumers 118 00:06:19,640 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 2: breathe the side of relief and we're a little more 119 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:24,640 Speaker 2: inclined to spend. And so some of this weakness in 120 00:06:24,680 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 2: the economy is going to be Again, I don't want 121 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,080 Speaker 2: to be jumping the gun, but you can sort of 122 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:31,479 Speaker 2: see scenario going through to the end of twenty twenty 123 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:33,880 Speaker 2: four into the early months of twenty twenty five. The 124 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:38,560 Speaker 2: inflation is two points something, wages growth is three points something. 125 00:06:39,279 --> 00:06:41,680 Speaker 2: We're going to have slightly better economic news, and the 126 00:06:41,720 --> 00:06:44,160 Speaker 2: consumer is going to be the one that drives slightly 127 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 2: better news on the economy. As I said, I don't 128 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:47,919 Speaker 2: want to get two carried away, but I like what 129 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:49,160 Speaker 2: I see. 130 00:06:49,560 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 1: It's almost emotional, isn't it, Stephen? 131 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 2: It is it is. I wear my heart on my 132 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 2: sleeve when it comes to the economy. And you know, 133 00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:59,719 Speaker 2: I like economic growth. I like lineflation, I like job creation, 134 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:02,719 Speaker 2: like the stock market hitting record highs. You know, I 135 00:07:02,839 --> 00:07:05,839 Speaker 2: like people to make money. Well, as I look through 136 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,520 Speaker 2: this run of news on the economy, I'm happy today 137 00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:10,680 Speaker 2: that I was a month ago. Put it that way. 138 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, Well, I think we're all, as to your point, 139 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: is looking for signs of relief that some of this 140 00:07:15,240 --> 00:07:16,119 Speaker 1: might be getting better. 141 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think that's the critical issue. And the 142 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 2: interest rate relief is still a little way away. I'd 143 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:24,720 Speaker 2: love them to cut interest rates tomorrow or the next 144 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 2: month or whatever. It's probably a little bit too early 145 00:07:28,120 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 2: to sort of genuinely talk about that, but it's on 146 00:07:32,120 --> 00:07:33,960 Speaker 2: the agenda. I think it's moving on to the agenda. 147 00:07:34,000 --> 00:07:35,920 Speaker 2: And you know, we saw again earlier this week the 148 00:07:35,960 --> 00:07:38,880 Speaker 2: People's Bank of China cutting interestrates because the Chinese economy 149 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:40,440 Speaker 2: is under a lot of pressure. Last week the FED 150 00:07:40,480 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 2: cut fifty basis points. There's all these central banks looking 151 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:46,080 Speaker 2: at their economies, not just Australia, and I think it's 152 00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 2: important for us sometimes to reflect on global economic conditions. 153 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 2: But you don't get the Americans, the Chinese, the Europeans, 154 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 2: the Brits, the Canadians and New Zealanders all cutting interestrates 155 00:07:59,160 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 2: for fun. They don't do it for fun. In fact, 156 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 2: on the contrary, they're sort of the tough central bankers 157 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 2: of the world. They do it because they can see 158 00:08:05,760 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 2: their inflation rates falling in their own economies. They can 159 00:08:08,240 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 2: see where you get growth, and they can see high unemployment. 160 00:08:11,040 --> 00:08:13,640 Speaker 2: They're the sort of fundamentals that the starting to sort 161 00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 2: of creep into the Australian psyche a little bit more. 162 00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 2: And again, as we're going back to today's yesterday's inflation number, 163 00:08:20,320 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 2: we've got the inflation rate coming back towards target. We'd 164 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:26,160 Speaker 2: likely to be there for a few more months. But hey, 165 00:08:27,000 --> 00:08:30,680 Speaker 2: we're almost there. As the father says to the kids 166 00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:33,880 Speaker 2: as they're driving to that coast, holla, were there yet? Well, 167 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 2: we're almost there. Hang on, we're almost there. Just we've 168 00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 2: got to get around this corner, down the hill and 169 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 2: into the motel. 170 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 1: Now, Stephen, as you mentioned, there's often a lot of 171 00:08:43,000 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 1: science and a bit of art at play here. Most 172 00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:47,160 Speaker 1: data is from the past, and we do have some 173 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:51,240 Speaker 1: precious forward indicators, but there's no perfect view of the 174 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:54,600 Speaker 1: path ahead. We know that growth has slowed. Do you 175 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:57,880 Speaker 1: think there's an argument that the RBA is being too conservative? 176 00:08:57,920 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 1: Are we at risk of recession here? 177 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 2: Look? To be fair, I think they have been a 178 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 2: little bit too cautious. I know that they don't like 179 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:08,640 Speaker 2: to adjust interest rates until they have to. I'm more 180 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:11,400 Speaker 2: of the view that they've got this blunt instrument interest rates, 181 00:09:11,720 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 2: use it a bit more frequently. And as I've been 182 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:15,720 Speaker 2: saying to a few other people just in this last 183 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 2: week or so, what would happen if fragments they cut 184 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 2: interest rates earlier this week and they cut them again 185 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 2: before Christmas? What would happen to the inflation? Now? Look, 186 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:29,880 Speaker 2: would it really kickstarter a surgeon. Inflation will probably not 187 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:33,240 Speaker 2: given how weak the economy currently is. Would it be 188 00:09:33,280 --> 00:09:35,880 Speaker 2: that little bit of insurance against a weaker economy in 189 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 2: twenty twenty five, Yeah, it would. It would generate that 190 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,080 Speaker 2: bit of a move to optimism, if we can say, 191 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:44,200 Speaker 2: on the consumer side of the economy. So again, the 192 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 2: Reserve Bank can always catch up. And as we saw 193 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 2: in the FED just last week, when they maybe should 194 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 2: have cut twenty five a month ago, they went fifty. 195 00:09:53,280 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 2: Now I'm not saying that the ABA will go fifty, 196 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:59,719 Speaker 2: but if we get to say December unemployments four and 197 00:09:59,760 --> 00:10:02,840 Speaker 2: a half for above, and we get another low CPI, 198 00:10:03,679 --> 00:10:06,439 Speaker 2: they can go fifty if they find that they're a 199 00:10:06,480 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 2: little bit behind a curve. 200 00:10:08,120 --> 00:10:10,839 Speaker 1: Stephen, you mentioned the labor market as well. It's proven 201 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: itself to be quite resilient. Let's talk about house prices 202 00:10:14,120 --> 00:10:16,360 Speaker 1: a little bit. There's always a mix of supply and 203 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:18,880 Speaker 1: demand factors at play with housing. But how do you 204 00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:21,960 Speaker 1: see the RBA's impact on the demand side for property? 205 00:10:22,600 --> 00:10:26,360 Speaker 2: Yeah, look at it. The interst rates going up obviously 206 00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:29,400 Speaker 2: does restrict the amount of money you can borrow. All 207 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 2: the lenders do in their mortgage calculator, look at your income. 208 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 2: Look at your borrowing capacity against the specific interest rate, 209 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:39,440 Speaker 2: plus a margin for appra and other requirements. In case 210 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:43,120 Speaker 2: interstrates unexpectedly go up and so is interest rates got 211 00:10:43,200 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 2: your boring capacity is trimmed. That said, the banks have 212 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:55,120 Speaker 2: as their biggest driver of lending your labor force status. 213 00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:57,959 Speaker 2: And that's economic jargon for whether you've got a job 214 00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 2: or not. If you don't have a job and interest 215 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:02,560 Speaker 2: rates as zero percent, they're not going to end you 216 00:11:02,559 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 2: a cracker. You know, there's nothing to do with the 217 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:07,320 Speaker 2: interestrate settings. If you have a secure job with an 218 00:11:07,360 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 2: okay income and you maintain your employment even with interest 219 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 2: rates being higher, the banks are more inclined to lend. 220 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 2: And I think that explains why in the last what 221 00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,679 Speaker 2: eighteen months or so, with the interest rate hikes that 222 00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 2: we've seen, house prices are generally tended to go up. Yeah, 223 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 2: there's a bit of a there's a big difference between say, 224 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 2: Melbourne and Hobart and Perth and Brisbane, Perth and Brisbane booming, 225 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:32,360 Speaker 2: Melbourne Hobart in the doldrums. But at an aggregate level, 226 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:37,199 Speaker 2: the banks are more inclined to be driven by what's 227 00:11:37,240 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 2: happening to your job status as opposed to interest rates, 228 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 2: and I think that's a critical thing. So for the 229 00:11:44,520 --> 00:11:47,839 Speaker 2: house price cycle getting towards the end of this year 230 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,680 Speaker 2: and into twenty twenty five, I think the biggest thing 231 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:52,640 Speaker 2: rather than interest rate cuts, may be fueling a bit 232 00:11:52,640 --> 00:11:55,440 Speaker 2: of demand for housing. Yes, that happened, of course, is 233 00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 2: whether we get unemployment increasing too much in the banks 234 00:11:57,800 --> 00:11:59,199 Speaker 2: and saying, look, I'm not going to lend too much 235 00:11:59,200 --> 00:12:01,679 Speaker 2: money to people becoming unemployed because I might not get 236 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 2: my money back. 237 00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:05,920 Speaker 1: It makes complete sense, Stephen. That is great perspective. Thank 238 00:12:05,960 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 1: you so much for talking to Fear and Greed. 239 00:12:08,080 --> 00:12:09,160 Speaker 2: Thanks Adam all the best. 240 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 1: That was Stephen Cook Caulas better known as the Kook, 241 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 1: and you can find him at the kook dot com 242 00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 1: and follow him on x using the handle of the Kook. 243 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:19,360 Speaker 1: This is the Fear and Greed Business Interview. Join us 244 00:12:19,400 --> 00:12:21,400 Speaker 1: every morning for the full episode of Fear and Greed. 245 00:12:21,679 --> 00:12:23,880 Speaker 1: It's daily business news for people who make their own 246 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:26,360 Speaker 1: decisions by Adam lang Enjoy your day.