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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Business Interview. I'm Sean Ailner.

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Speaker 1: The world it seems like a very divided place and

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Speaker 1: dangerous place at the moment. We have conflict breaking out

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Speaker 1: between India and Pakistan. The crisis in Gaza is escalating again,

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Speaker 1: the war in Ukraine continues. There are even tensions between allies,

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Speaker 1: with new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney facing off with

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump in the White House over the past thirty

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Speaker 1: six hours or so. In more positive news, China and

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Speaker 1: the US are set to meet soon to start resolving

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Speaker 1: the trade war, at least negotiating around the trade war

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Speaker 1: between the nations. With so much conflict happening all at

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Speaker 1: the same time, what does it mean for the world.

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Speaker 1: What role does the US have to play in resolving tensions?

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Speaker 1: Is it even the role of the US anymore to

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Speaker 1: be the global peacemaker? Dr Charles Miller is a senior

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Speaker 1: lecturer at the A and U School of Politics and

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Speaker 1: International Relations. Charles, Welcome to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Thank you, thank you for having me.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with the US and China economically. That's the

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Speaker 1: biggest one for US. I would say, a big step

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Speaker 1: that they're going to be mating in Switzerland later in

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Speaker 1: the wake their officials from both sides, what can we

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Speaker 1: help to achieve in the short term between those two well, I.

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Speaker 2: Mean, I think in the short term what we would

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Speaker 2: hope to achieve would be simply to bring about some

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Speaker 2: kind of stability, predictability, and some rules in terms of

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Speaker 2: the tariff relationship between the two of them, because I

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Speaker 2: think although you know, we're talking off a lot about

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump's tariff war and so on, I think it

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Speaker 2: was inevitable that there were going to be some trade

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Speaker 2: restrictions on the relationship between the United States and China,

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Speaker 2: regardless of who had won. I mean, you already saw

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Speaker 2: some steps away from free trade with China during the

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Speaker 2: Biden administration in terms of the Chips Act, various other

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Speaker 2: measures that they took, and I think that most observers

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Speaker 2: would have expected this to continue and intensify under Donald Trump.

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Speaker 2: But what I think was really surprising with him was

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Speaker 2: not so much the fact that he put tariffs on China,

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Speaker 2: was the fact that first of all, they were so high. Secondly,

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Speaker 2: he put tariffs on a bunch of other countries as well,

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Speaker 2: and third that they have veered so unpredictably, both in

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Speaker 2: terms of what's covered, what countries are covered, and what

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Speaker 2: rates that are and so forth. And perhaps I should

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Speaker 2: add fourth also that the tariffs against China were across

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Speaker 2: the board and not specifically targeted against them certain industries

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Speaker 2: in the way that they were under Biden and probably

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Speaker 2: would have been under Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, it's Trump. I mean, if you take the

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Speaker 1: Cannie Trump meeting in the last thirty six hours of that,

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Speaker 1: they seemed quite friendly. There was betta about anyxing of Canada,

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Speaker 1: and beneath that there was a bit of great particularly

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Speaker 1: from Mark Canney. What about that relationship? And I suppose

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Speaker 1: I want to I mean, it's Trump learning on the

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Speaker 1: job and softening just a little bit.

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Speaker 2: But well, it's kind of funny to talk about learning

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Speaker 2: on the job. He's already been president before, do you know,

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Speaker 2: quite a long long learning curve. Yeah, that's right. Look,

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Speaker 2: I think that he was spooked by the response of

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Speaker 2: the bond markets to the so called liberation dat tariffs. So,

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Speaker 2: I mean a lot of people think that Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: is politically invulnerable, and I think he is in vulnerable

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Speaker 2: to a lot of things that perhaps we would have

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Speaker 2: imagined in the past would have sunk a US president.

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Speaker 2: But that doesn't mean to say that he is completely bulletproof.

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Speaker 2: If the economy does badly, especially if it is directly

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Speaker 2: traceable to decisions and actions that Donald Trump himself took,

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Speaker 2: then that is going to reflect very badly. It's going

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Speaker 2: to mean, for example, a large victory for the Democrats

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Speaker 2: in the midterms, and then probably in twenty twenty eight

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Speaker 2: some vehemently anti Trump Democrat being elected and Trump's legacy

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Speaker 2: looking really, really bad. So I think he is afraid

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Speaker 2: of figuring a global recession. There was I think some

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Speaker 2: talk about him and being worried that he was going

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Speaker 2: to become the new Herbert Whoever, that's a reference to

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Speaker 2: the amount who was president at the time of the

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Speaker 2: Great Depression, And so when he saw the bond markets

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Speaker 2: reacting as they did to the Liberation datarifs, I think

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Speaker 2: that that genuinely scared him in closing to climb down

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Speaker 2: in a way that very few other things could.

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Speaker 1: Is Donald Trump but a president focused? I mean, much

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Speaker 1: of the make America Great Again stuff is about America manufacturing,

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Speaker 1: and everyone else seems to be collateral damage or not

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Speaker 1: everyone but most of us seem to be collateral damage.

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Speaker 1: Do you think that Donald Trump will increasingly withdraw support

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Speaker 1: from the rest of the world and therefore we establish

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Speaker 1: a new world order? He won't totally withdraw it, I'm sure,

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Speaker 1: and we'll get to some of those other conflicts in

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Speaker 1: a moment. But what do you think the trajectory is

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Speaker 1: with the US as placement of the world.

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Speaker 2: Well, I think the trajectory is as you described. I

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Speaker 2: think the United States is going to increasingly withdraw law

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Speaker 2: and I think that the smart thing for America's allies,

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Speaker 2: or perhaps I should say former allies, is to try

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Speaker 2: and think about what an alternative is going to look

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Speaker 2: like to that. Now. Obviously in the case of Europe,

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Speaker 2: so I might get into this in a little bit,

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Speaker 2: and you've hinted that you will. The difference between different

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Speaker 2: conflicts around the world. I think that Europe is more

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Speaker 2: vulnerable or more likely to have an American cutoff than

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Speaker 2: the Asia Pacific for reasons that we can go into.

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Speaker 2: But also at the same time, I think Europe has

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Speaker 2: a better and more obvious alternative than America's allies in

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Speaker 2: the Asia Pacific do so. I think this in Europe,

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Speaker 2: but We're most likely to see actions being taken to

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Speaker 2: build a new architecture to secure kind of peace and

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Speaker 2: economic cooperation in a world where the United States isn't

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Speaker 2: reliable as reliable as it used to be in the past.

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Speaker 1: Okay, Charlie, we'll get into that starting after the break.

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Speaker 1: I'm talking to doctor Charles Miller from IU School of

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Speaker 1: Politics and International Relations. Before the break, you were discussing

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Speaker 1: Europe might not receive the help from the US as

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Speaker 1: much as it has previously, but it also has alternatives.

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Speaker 1: Just explained what you're talking about.

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Speaker 2: Well, yeah, I mean, look, presidents going all the way

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Speaker 2: back to Richard Nixon, perhaps even before that, have spoken

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Speaker 2: about Europe free riding. So what they mean by that

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Speaker 2: is essentially that the United States has a big, powerful

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Speaker 2: military presence in Europe that deterred the Soviet Union and

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Speaker 2: then after the collapse of the Soviet Union, deterred Russia.

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Speaker 2: And this is something that the Americans maintained in spite

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Speaker 2: of the fact that Europe after World War Two became

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Speaker 2: very wealthy and at various points either overtook depending which

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Speaker 2: country you're talking about, or was about to overtake, or

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Speaker 2: looked like it was going to overtake the United States itself.

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Speaker 2: And yet still Europe spent a smaller proportion of its

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Speaker 2: GDP on defense than the United States did. So American

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Speaker 2: policy makers have been warning Europe for a while that

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Speaker 2: that can't continue. They were doing it very politely under Obama,

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Speaker 2: a little bit less politely under Trump one. Now under

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Speaker 2: Trump two, it's really called Turkey. But what Europe can do?

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Speaker 2: I mean, Europe is in a kind of a good

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Speaker 2: position relative to americasales in the Asia Pacific, in that,

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Speaker 2: first of all, it already has a kind of an

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Speaker 2: established venue or set of venues for economic, political, and

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Speaker 2: knowlogic cooperations. So the European Union, NATO and various other

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Speaker 2: fora there's a very thick, what we call in political science,

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Speaker 2: a kind of institutional ecosystem of institutions that they can

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Speaker 2: use to cooperate with one another. That same institution is

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Speaker 2: not as thick in Asia Pacific as it is in Europe. Second,

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Speaker 2: the main threat that the Europeans are worried about, obviously

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Speaker 2: is Russia. Now, if the European countries were to be

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Speaker 2: able to get together, if you consider them all as

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Speaker 2: a whole, they have four times Russia's GDP. They have

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Speaker 2: more military personnel than Russia, they spend more on their

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Speaker 2: military in total than Russia does. So if they are

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Speaker 2: to be if they were able to act in a

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Speaker 2: coordinated manner to defend themselves against Russia, they shouldn't really

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Speaker 2: have a problem at the end of the day. Whereas

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Speaker 2: in Asia Pacific, the country that may pose a security

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Speaker 2: challenge in the future of the country that America is

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Speaker 2: always worried about China, and that is a much much

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Speaker 2: bigger problem. So even if you had the Japan, South Korea, Australia,

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Speaker 2: Singapore all acting together collectively, still they don't have the

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Speaker 2: same ability to defend themselves against China without the United States.

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Speaker 2: That Europe would have to defend itself against Russia without

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Speaker 2: the United States.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so let's talk about Asia. Then do you think

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Speaker 1: the US will be open to supporting the region when

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Speaker 1: it comes to China or do you think again, it

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Speaker 1: will be slightly more hands off than previously.

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Speaker 2: Well that's a really good question. So if you ask

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Speaker 2: me just before Trump became president, I would have said

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Speaker 2: that what Trump is going to do is that he

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Speaker 2: is going to de emphasize and tearing Russia in part

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Speaker 2: so that he can set China up as America's major

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Speaker 2: great power rival. And in fact, many of the figures

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Speaker 2: within his administration, so Elbert Colby, for example, who has

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Speaker 2: an under secretary for Defense, so he's in the Trump

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Speaker 2: administration now. He wrote a book called The Strategy of Denial,

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Speaker 2: which is about a grand plan for the United States

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Speaker 2: to contain China in the future. And it sets out

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Speaker 2: exactly this idea. De emphasize Europe. Let the Europeans take

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Speaker 2: care of themselves within reason, so that you can concentrate

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Speaker 2: on containing China. Now that's what I would have thought

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Speaker 2: he would have done. And if you listen to JD. Vans,

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Speaker 2: if you listen to Marco Rubio, if you listen to p. Hegsith,

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Speaker 2: if you listen to the late Mike Wallas, I say

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Speaker 2: the late as and he's no longer National Security Advisor,

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Speaker 2: that's what they were talking like green. If you listen

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Speaker 2: to Trump himself, however, it also you know he talks

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Speaker 2: about China's if it's a threat. He certainly views China

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Speaker 2: as an economic threat. He's certainly in favor of economic

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Speaker 2: tariffs against China. But then occasionally he'll talk about how

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Speaker 2: and perhaps we'll just abandon Taiwan or perhaps will come

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Speaker 2: to some kind of understanding with China. So there's a

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Speaker 2: way that I kind of think about it. There's a

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Speaker 2: movie I think I've Been Rocky where there's this trainer says,

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Speaker 2: you know, you may want success, but actually just kind

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Speaker 2: of want it, and I think that that's true. I

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Speaker 2: think that the best way to talk about the Trump

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Speaker 2: Administration's actually towards China is they say that they want

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Speaker 2: to contain China, but in reality, they just kind of

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Speaker 2: want to contain China. That's probably the best way that

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Speaker 2: I could put it.

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Speaker 1: And we're out of time, but I just want to

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Speaker 1: quickly ask you about India and Pakistan that, now, what's

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Speaker 1: happened in the last thirty six hours probably not unexpected

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Speaker 1: given what had happened up in Cashmi a few weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: How does that play out?

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Speaker 2: Well, I mean, the baseline for seeing how it would

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Speaker 2: play out is that it will play out as Indo

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Speaker 2: Pakistani crisis have in the past, and so it will

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Speaker 2: be some low level escalation, some exchange of fire, and

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Speaker 2: perhaps Pakistan will use militant proxies to carry out more

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Speaker 2: attacks on India. India will get angry about to attack Pakistan.

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Speaker 2: It's unlikely that it's going to escalate to the level

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Speaker 2: of a nuclear exchange, and very unlikely. There is a

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Speaker 2: thing called in political science the stability and stability paradox,

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Speaker 2: and it basically says that where you have sides with

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Speaker 2: nuclear weapons, like India and Pakistan, they will be stable

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Speaker 2: in the sense of they're not going to have a big,

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Speaker 2: large scale war because they know that that is going

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Speaker 2: to potentially lead to a nuclear war. But precisely for

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Speaker 2: that reason, things are much more unstable at the lower level.

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Speaker 2: There's much more low level fighting because each side knows

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Speaker 2: that they can start something at a lower level without

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Speaker 2: having to worry about it generating really large scale blowback.

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Speaker 2: So that is most likely a thing. What will happen there?

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Speaker 1: Charles, thanks for talking to Fearing Grid.

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Speaker 2: You're welcome. Thank you for having me on.

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Speaker 1: Now as doctor Charles Miller Sen you lecture at the

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Speaker 1: School of Politics and International Relations. This is the Fear

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Speaker 1: and Greed Business Interview. Join us every morning for the

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Speaker 1: full episode of Fear and Greed Daily Business years for

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Speaker 1: people who make their own decisions. I'm Shane Elma enjoy

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Speaker 1: your day,