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Speaker 1: It's Thursday, the twenty sixth of March twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fast five Business News by Fear and Greed,

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Speaker 1: where we give you the top five business stories you

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Speaker 1: need to know in just five minutes. Are Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and Good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Five stories in five minutes. Let's go with story number one.

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Speaker 1: Federal Treasurer at Jim Chalmers has warned that the Middle

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Speaker 1: East conflict will see inflation higher for longer as the

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Speaker 1: global price of oil soars. The rate of inflation might

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Speaker 1: hit five percent by the middle of the year, according

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Speaker 1: to Treasury modeling, which is way above the RBA's preferred

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Speaker 1: target range of two to three percent. Chalmers said that

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Speaker 1: the two key considerations were the timing of the end

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Speaker 1: of the war and how long it takes for the

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Speaker 1: global economy to get back on track when that happens,

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Speaker 1: two things that we have no control over.

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Speaker 2: That's right, title mixed messages about how long the war

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Speaker 2: will last. It seems a little relief inside at the moment.

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Speaker 2: The consensus view among economists is that the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 2: will lift the cash rate again in May, possibly one

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Speaker 2: more time later in the year. Inflation figures released yesterday's

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Speaker 2: show the annual pace in February, ahead of the outbreak

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Speaker 2: in hostilities insurging. The price of oil was three point

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Speaker 2: three percent in underlying terms three point seven percent on

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Speaker 2: a headline basis. The big drivers will higher prices in housing,

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Speaker 2: food and recreation and culture. The data has pretty much

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Speaker 2: been superseded by what's going on in the Middle East.

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Speaker 1: Quick question with that notice, Sean, isn't there a risk that,

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Speaker 1: given the jump in petrol prices and it has been

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Speaker 1: a very sharp jump in petrol prices and the lift

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Speaker 1: in interest rates, that the Reserve Bank could actually just

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Speaker 1: put the economy into a recession if it does keep

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Speaker 1: on hiking the cash rate.

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Speaker 2: Yes, and it knows that. Last week Governor Michelle Bullock

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Speaker 2: talked about, you know, not wanting to have a recession,

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Speaker 2: but it's hard to get inflation down. Then you know

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Speaker 2: we're going to have to deal with that, possibly ie

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Speaker 2: recession if you can't get inflation down.

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Speaker 1: There's a balancing act going on here because inflation is

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Speaker 1: enemy number one and the RBA wants to stomp on it.

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Speaker 1: That's why higher interest rates are likely. But if the

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Speaker 1: price of oil stays elevated and pushes beyond a undred

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Speaker 1: and twenty US dollars a barrel and more. Because the

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Speaker 1: Middle East conflict goes on and on, then a global

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Speaker 1: recession as likely.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and at that point, the last thing the Reserve

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Speaker 2: Bank wants to do is lift interest rates. So reading

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Speaker 2: between the lines, monetary policy at the moment is managing

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Speaker 2: for a relatively short war short spike in oil prices. Now,

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Speaker 2: even if the war ended today, it would take time

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Speaker 2: to get oil flowing again. We're going to have higher

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Speaker 2: prices for quite a few months. If the war goes on.

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Speaker 2: And remember Russia's ten day war against Ukraine now and

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Speaker 2: it's fourth year. Well, the Reserve Bank could get caught

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Speaker 2: out rates to be too high. We could be in

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Speaker 2: for a humdinger of a recession. As Jim Chalmers said

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Speaker 2: yesterday in a press conference, the end of the war

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Speaker 2: cannot come soon enough for the economy.

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Speaker 1: On just story number two, Sean, and you mentioned the

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Speaker 1: mixed messages around the war that continues.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: We heard yesterday from Donald Trump that Iran had given

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Speaker 1: the US a very big present. This is a quote,

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Speaker 1: A very big present worth a tremendous amount of money

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Speaker 1: and that had convinced the President that the US is

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Speaker 1: dealing with the right people in Iran. That came after

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Speaker 1: reports that the US at Santa Ran a fifteen point

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Speaker 1: plan to end the war via intermediaries in Pakistan. Israel's

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Speaker 1: Channel twelve News reports there is a mechanism in the

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Speaker 1: plan that would allow for a one month ceasefire during

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Speaker 1: which Iran and the US could really discuss the details

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Speaker 1: of the proposal.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, let's we get there, because, as Jim

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Speaker 2: Chalmers said, the end of the war can't come soon enough.

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Speaker 2: Already in Australia, more than four hundred service stations and

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Speaker 2: without some types of fuel as a result of the war,

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Speaker 2: including nearly three hundred across the country without any diesel

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Speaker 2: at all. Federal governments introduced new legislation to double the

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Speaker 2: penalty for petrol supplies found to be price gouging. Start

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Speaker 2: a Post yesterday came out and increased the fuel surcharge, which,

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Speaker 2: of course centers of passes will ultimately bear. We are

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Speaker 2: starting to see the impact of all this hitting the

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Speaker 2: bottom line.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, Story number three. News of that potential peace plan

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Speaker 1: sent the local share market up one point eight five

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Speaker 1: percent to eighty five hundred and thirty four points, the

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Speaker 1: best single session in a year. The increase added about

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Speaker 1: fifty five billion dollars to the value of the Boss.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's fun. It's some good news. I

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Speaker 2: suppose there are some very big moves. Goldstock did very well.

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Speaker 2: Critical minerals companies did very well. BHP mcquarry were both up.

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Speaker 2: But drone Shield drone Shield shields against drones best on

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Speaker 2: the day, up nineteen percent worse, not surprisingly, where the

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Speaker 2: energy companies fell back on the price of oil, which

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Speaker 2: dropped back below one hundred US dollars an ounce.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for clarifying what drone shield does.

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Speaker 2: It's the kind of the lather company whose name tells

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Speaker 2: us what it does.

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Speaker 1: That's great, isn't it okay? Story number four. Rio Tinto

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Speaker 1: will receive two billion dollars in taxpayer subsidies to secure

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Speaker 1: the long term future of its massive Boying aluminium smelter

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Speaker 1: in North Queensland, on the proviso that it backs more

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Speaker 1: than seven billion dollars worth of new clean energy projects

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Speaker 1: in the state. The federal and Queensland governments will provide

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Speaker 1: a billion dollars each to keep the facility going well

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Speaker 1: beyond twenty thirty.

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Speaker 2: The smelter, which employs about a thousand people in Gladstone

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Speaker 2: and Weeper, is one of several metals processing facilities across

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Speaker 2: Australia struggling to remain viable because of rising energy costs

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Speaker 2: and other actors. Federal Industry Minister Stewart Airs said the

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Speaker 2: Boyin deal was one of the most significant decarbonization and

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Speaker 2: industrial investment commitments in Australian history.

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Speaker 1: Last one story number five. The price of petrol has

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Speaker 1: met many people are thinking more about electric vehicles and

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Speaker 1: while the upfront cost put a lot of people off

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Speaker 1: EV sedans, the growth in the used EV car market

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Speaker 1: and Tesla dropping prices over the past year, along with

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Speaker 1: those kind of surging fuel prices, has really helped a resurgence.

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Speaker 1: Here shown in one sector where evs are perhaps surprisingly

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Speaker 1: making inroads is the semi trailer market, with Tesla's semi

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Speaker 1: truck receiving high praise after a one month pilot of

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Speaker 1: the vehicles.

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Speaker 2: Yeah so, the first Tesla truck was produced at the

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Speaker 2: end of twenty twenty two. It is only this year

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Speaker 2: that the companies really pushed the product. What truck is

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Speaker 2: like cameras around all parts of the truck so they

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Speaker 2: don't have to jump out and see how close they

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Speaker 2: are to the wall or whatever. They can see it

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Speaker 2: wealth in the cabin eight hundred kilometer range, fast charge budges,

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Speaker 2: steering wheel in the center of the cabin rather than

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Speaker 2: the right hand side in the US, that's a winter

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Speaker 2: recording to report in the Wall Street Journal. There's no

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Speaker 2: clutch or gear shifting that reduces fatigue. Accelerations are much

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Speaker 2: better than diesel vehicles. Finally, this so called semi that's

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Speaker 2: what Tesla calls it is much cheaper to run, not

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Speaker 2: just in terms of charging slash fuel, but in maintenance

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Speaker 2: as well. So the Tesla Semi apparently is a winner.

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Speaker 1: No blind spots around the vehicle. That's pretty amazing. But

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Speaker 1: it's pot having a steering wheel in the center that

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Speaker 1: it takes some adjusting, right, It feels like that it's

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Speaker 1: fraught with day think about it.

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Speaker 2: I don't think so. I think that'd be really cool.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, But I mean, if you've driven one way for

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Speaker 1: the last forty years, lining yourself up with kind of

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Speaker 1: the center line, suddenly you've got to move everything over

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Speaker 1: by about a meter. It feels like it be sideswiping

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Speaker 1: everything in sight. There we go five minutes and pretty

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Speaker 1: much everything you need to know in the world of business.

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is Thursday, the twenty sixth to March twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: six got the day. There for a moment, remember to

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Speaker 1: hit follow on the podcast and in five minutes isn't enough.

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Speaker 1: You can find our longer daily show called Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed wherever you listen to podcasts. I'm Michael Thompson and

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Speaker 1: that was the Fast five Business News by Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Have a great day.