WEBVTT - Paul Murray Live | 6 May 0:00:00.120 --> 0:00:01.960 From the Skyinging Center. 0:00:02.360 --> 0:00:05.040 This is Paul Murray Live. 0:00:06.400 --> 0:00:08.760 Thank you, Sherry Little. In fact, you know Anthony Pratt 0:00:08.760 --> 0:00:11.520 getting around in that green suit. Apparently everyone who goes 0:00:11.560 --> 0:00:14.440 to the met gala that has to have their outfits 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:16.680 approved by Anna wind tour in, the editor of one 0:00:16.680 --> 0:00:19.639 of those fashion Maga saintes See you didn't think the 0:00:19.680 --> 0:00:23.440 other like, don't just read that someone. All right, we've 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:25.960 got a lot to get to tonight, including Kaus Samaris 0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:27.480 is back. Now normally we do a state of the 0:00:27.560 --> 0:00:29.280 Race with him, but we're going to get right into 0:00:30.160 --> 0:00:33.120 what Australia actually looks like. Now a lot of us 0:00:33.159 --> 0:00:35.400 have got assumptions, well, Australia is this in Australia is that? 0:00:35.440 --> 0:00:39.000 Well he's been watching it closer than anyone, and he's 0:00:39.000 --> 0:00:41.200 gonna tell us what Australia actually looks like and whether 0:00:41.200 --> 0:00:44.240 we have to reset our expectations of what people believe 0:00:44.240 --> 0:00:47.320 and what people want, whether we've tipped over into the 0:00:47.360 --> 0:00:50.240 dependent state, or whether people want to be left alone. 0:00:50.320 --> 0:00:51.720 We'll get into all of that, because it's not just 0:00:51.720 --> 0:00:53.920 the data. As part of what he was doing during 0:00:53.960 --> 0:00:56.720 the federal election campaign was talking to as many voters 0:00:56.760 --> 0:01:00.840 as possible who claimed to be undecided. The big winner 0:01:00.880 --> 0:01:03.200 of the past few days has been Nigel Farage. Now 0:01:03.240 --> 0:01:04.840 we've had to do without him here on Sky News 0:01:04.840 --> 0:01:06.800 for a little while because he has been working and 0:01:06.880 --> 0:01:09.760 working and working to get his Reform Party to be 0:01:09.800 --> 0:01:12.480 competitive where they were more than competitive. They've beat everyone 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:17.039 in the local council elections all over the UK, more councilors, 0:01:17.080 --> 0:01:20.959 more seats, more mayoralties. And the man will tell us 0:01:21.000 --> 0:01:23.759 about what it's like to be a happy warrior, about 0:01:23.760 --> 0:01:26.080 why he thinks the UK politics is now starting to 0:01:26.080 --> 0:01:29.080 find a different path than any observations that he may 0:01:29.120 --> 0:01:31.640 will have about our election. All of that tonight, and 0:01:31.680 --> 0:01:34.440 I'm so pleased to say he is back now. As always, 0:01:34.480 --> 0:01:36.080 I'll have plenty of at the start of the show, 0:01:36.080 --> 0:01:37.440 but I'm going to try to save a bit more 0:01:37.480 --> 0:01:39.319 time for our guests tonight because I want to get 0:01:39.319 --> 0:01:43.080 into some of their insights after giving you some of mine. 0:01:43.200 --> 0:01:44.800 Now this might be a couple of days old, but 0:01:44.840 --> 0:01:46.720 I'm going to try to start as many shows as 0:01:46.720 --> 0:01:50.560 possible with something we can all agree on, And something 0:01:50.600 --> 0:01:53.960 we can all agree on is how awesome is Oscar Piastre. 0:01:55.120 --> 0:01:58.760 This bloke is leading the Formula One World title, and 0:01:58.840 --> 0:02:01.400 he's starting to look like if his form keeps going 0:02:01.440 --> 0:02:02.960 the way that he does, he's going to run away 0:02:02.960 --> 0:02:04.880 with it. It doesn't mean he's locked it away yet, 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:06.960 but he's won multiple in a row. This bloke is 0:02:07.000 --> 0:02:11.160 absolutely kicking backside here. He was moaning in Miami early 0:02:11.200 --> 0:02:11.919 Monday morning. 0:02:13.720 --> 0:02:16.160 Yesterday was a tricky day. Obviously the sprint was what 0:02:16.200 --> 0:02:20.400 it was, but qualifying was probably one of my trickier 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:23.600 sessions for the year, and to to come away with 0:02:23.600 --> 0:02:26.440 a win still on Sundays is an impressive result. 0:02:27.200 --> 0:02:29.079 Now, of course, his biggest rival is a bloke who 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:31.679 is part of his team. Already, towards the end of 0:02:31.760 --> 0:02:35.160 last year, Lando Norris, a British driver, was doing better 0:02:35.280 --> 0:02:37.720 in terms of his results, so the team started to 0:02:37.720 --> 0:02:40.720 put its focus behind him. And Lando Norris is running 0:02:40.760 --> 0:02:43.520 second in the championship, So those two blokes are fighting 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:45.760 it out. After a few more racest things, I think 0:02:45.800 --> 0:02:48.480 will start to move in terms of supporting Oscar even 0:02:48.560 --> 0:02:52.280 more so and Max Forstappen, the multiple time world champion, Well, 0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:53.840 a lot's got to go wrong for the two blokes 0:02:53.840 --> 0:02:55.760 in front, and lot's going to go right for anything 0:02:55.840 --> 0:02:58.520 to change, but an Australian on their way to world 0:02:58.560 --> 0:03:01.160 title success in Formula one something we can all agree 0:03:01.200 --> 0:03:05.720 on tonight. Now, no one's going to pretend the result 0:03:05.760 --> 0:03:06.400 wasn't the result. 0:03:06.440 --> 0:03:06.600 Part. 0:03:06.639 --> 0:03:09.120 We are going to talk about some silver linings that 0:03:09.160 --> 0:03:11.960 come out of the election, and there are a couple 0:03:12.120 --> 0:03:15.760 that are still proving themselves right now. Oh I love 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:19.320 Zoey Daniel. Oh how good am I? I defeated the Libs. 0:03:19.360 --> 0:03:22.320 I'm going to be here forever. This was her on 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:23.200 Saturday Night. 0:03:25.080 --> 0:03:26.760 It's been a hard campaign team. 0:03:29.760 --> 0:03:30.760 Being Goldstein. 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:31.880 Hope wins. 0:03:34.200 --> 0:03:36.839 The Liberal Party threw everything out, us guys. 0:03:38.800 --> 0:04:02.160 Who everything, and we are standing here to celebrate on 0:04:02.360 --> 0:04:07.160 the teal And I'm gonna win three more years. But 0:04:07.480 --> 0:04:10.120 I have to wait a couple of days. And this 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:18.280 headline kind says it. Oh, with eighty two percent of 0:04:18.320 --> 0:04:22.080 the vote counted, guess what. Zoey Daniel looks like she's 0:04:22.120 --> 0:04:26.880 on her way out. Hope did not win in the end, 0:04:27.080 --> 0:04:29.560 somebody else's Hope seems to have won, and Tim Wilson 0:04:29.560 --> 0:04:31.599 looks like he's back into the parliament now. Tim is 0:04:31.640 --> 0:04:33.400 very much a lefty Liberal and very much will be 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:35.000 out and about instead of you know, doing the Q 0:04:35.120 --> 0:04:37.400 and a circuit about how the Liberal Party should be 0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:39.000 more like him and all the rest of it. But 0:04:39.080 --> 0:04:41.719 good on him. He didn't take the past three years 0:04:41.760 --> 0:04:44.359 lying down. He decided to turn around. He fought hard. 0:04:44.520 --> 0:04:47.720 And believe me, these climbate to two hundred people, they 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:50.200 fight just as hard as anyone else in the game. Now, 0:04:50.360 --> 0:04:52.880 because of the pre pop vote, because of the postal vote, 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:55.279 he's now getting into a place where people are calling 0:04:55.279 --> 0:04:58.920 the seat, including the great Tom Connell or the dancing 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:02.120 was for things, So you can dance in your car now, 0:05:02.279 --> 0:05:06.440 but you're not going to be the MP. That's for 0:05:06.520 --> 0:05:10.040 another Teal, this one up in the seat of Bradfield. Now, 0:05:10.120 --> 0:05:12.360 this is Bradfield formally held by the Liberal Party for 0:05:12.400 --> 0:05:14.440 a long period of time. I say formerly because we 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:16.840 still don't know exactly which way this thing is going 0:05:16.880 --> 0:05:20.040 to fall. But on Saturday night the Teal who wanted 0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:21.960 to become the MP there, you know, the one with 0:05:22.040 --> 0:05:25.120 the dirty jokes and the couldn't quite tell why the 0:05:25.120 --> 0:05:28.080 Teals weren't a party on social media. Well she was 0:05:28.120 --> 0:05:32.680 in front, then behind and now starting to fall behind, 0:05:32.839 --> 0:05:36.400 not by a big number. But the Liberal is up 0:05:36.400 --> 0:05:39.240 by fifty one votes. Now the postal votes are on 0:05:39.279 --> 0:05:43.360 their way back through reality years postal votes. Obviously they 0:05:43.400 --> 0:05:45.560 need to break a little more for the Liberals to 0:05:45.560 --> 0:05:49.040 start getting super confident here. So nobody's doing any dancing 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:52.240 metaphorically or in reality. But good to see that the 0:05:52.240 --> 0:05:55.000 liber may well hold on in Bradfield. If not, the 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:57.240 Teals have gone all in on this one. They thought 0:05:57.240 --> 0:05:59.000 this was the next on the list and if it 0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:01.279 means they can't grow the footprint in New South Wales, 0:06:01.279 --> 0:06:03.840 but in fact it'll pretty much stay the same. If 0:06:03.880 --> 0:06:07.680 it retracts in Victoria, that's a good thing for those 0:06:07.720 --> 0:06:09.920 of us who say a few less Teeals is. 0:06:09.839 --> 0:06:10.440 Not a bad thing. 0:06:11.120 --> 0:06:12.919 In Western Australia, the picture is not good for the 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:16.239 Liberal Party been thumped. Remember their assumption was Labor Party 0:06:16.240 --> 0:06:18.200 one four seats, two of them will come back. Well, 0:06:18.200 --> 0:06:21.080 there was a brand new seat that appeared. Personally, I 0:06:21.120 --> 0:06:23.000 was a massive fan of Mia Davies, who is the 0:06:23.440 --> 0:06:25.680 National Party former leader. I think she's a star. If 0:06:25.720 --> 0:06:27.800 we get a chance to make her part of the 0:06:27.880 --> 0:06:30.080 round table of conversation, she'll always be welcomed here on 0:06:30.120 --> 0:06:33.000 Paul Murray Live. Well, of course, her finishing third means 0:06:33.240 --> 0:06:35.520 her preferences go to the liberal and the liberal and 0:06:35.560 --> 0:06:37.799 the seat of Bullwinkle is now leading by five hundred 0:06:37.800 --> 0:06:41.200 and forty four votes. So the brand new seat, which 0:06:41.200 --> 0:06:45.640 again Labor thought they were a chance, we'll see what happens. Again. 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:48.599 I'm not saying Bradfield settled. I'm not saying Bullwinkle is settled. 0:06:48.680 --> 0:06:50.599 One could go to a tier, one could go to Labor. 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:55.440 But tonight that is the particular silver lining. But the 0:06:55.720 --> 0:06:59.119 one ray of sunshine in the shape of a band 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:03.400 is what the voters of Melbourne have decided to do. Now. 0:07:03.920 --> 0:07:07.960 They claim nothing's going to break up the seat of 0:07:07.960 --> 0:07:13.160 Melbourne and the Greens leader and DJ and favored candidate 0:07:13.200 --> 0:07:18.160 of people on social media, some people on social media, Well, 0:07:18.360 --> 0:07:20.080 the numbers are not good for him. We've shown you 0:07:20.080 --> 0:07:21.720 them all the way through, and here he is saying 0:07:21.760 --> 0:07:23.800 that he thinks he's going to get there in the end. 0:07:24.720 --> 0:07:26.800 A number of the Lower House seats, of course, are 0:07:26.840 --> 0:07:29.920 now three three cornered contests. And so when there is 0:07:29.960 --> 0:07:35.920 a bit shift from Labor to Liberala, from Liberal to Labor, 0:07:36.760 --> 0:07:39.640 it has flown through consequences. 0:07:40.960 --> 0:07:43.920 See, his whole thing, right is as long as the 0:07:43.960 --> 0:07:49.280 fight ends up being me versus Labor, and the Greens 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:51.760 always get the preferences from the Liberals because at the 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:54.200 end of the day they want to deny Labor seats. 0:07:54.440 --> 0:07:57.360 He wins the seat. But the principal decision of the 0:07:57.400 --> 0:07:59.880 Liberal Party, which has helped the Labor Party at this 0:08:00.080 --> 0:08:02.200 election defeat many of the Greens that they have or 0:08:02.200 --> 0:08:05.120 potentially this one, is that they put their the Greens 0:08:05.240 --> 0:08:09.000 dead last, meaning that essentially the two thirds the even 0:08:09.040 --> 0:08:12.400 three here ends up uniting to knock off the Green. 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:14.480 Now this isn't over yet, but it's on its way. 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:17.600 I don't know why the count is so slow. Maybe 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:19.920 there's other vote that comes from other places. But if 0:08:19.920 --> 0:08:22.840 one person is up by three thousand votes a couple 0:08:22.880 --> 0:08:26.200 of days after the election, it is unusual if that 0:08:26.440 --> 0:08:29.880 flips anytime soon. So it was a dark weekend. I'm 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:31.400 not going to hide from it, not going to pretend. 0:08:31.880 --> 0:08:33.400 I'm not going to pretend the Liberal Party did not 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:37.200 get its backside handed to it. Or as I often 0:08:37.240 --> 0:08:38.960 say in a metaphor, that doesn't quite make sense to 0:08:38.960 --> 0:08:40.960 some people, but those who do understand it will they 0:08:40.960 --> 0:08:43.040 get it. They were turned inside out like an old 0:08:43.040 --> 0:08:46.000 pair of socks. No question about what the result was here, 0:08:46.280 --> 0:08:49.520 but a couple of silver linings along the way. They help, 0:08:50.040 --> 0:08:53.560 They help soothe the feelings of the past few days. 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:58.200 Perhaps one til gone another won't get in lib over 0:08:58.280 --> 0:09:01.360 labor in one seat in Western Australia, and maybe, just maybe, 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:04.120 just maybe bye bye bands, see what happens a law 0:09:04.160 --> 0:09:07.640 from now. As for whom the next Liberal Party leader 0:09:07.840 --> 0:09:12.520 is Susan Lay, the current Deputy Dan Teen, the current 0:09:12.559 --> 0:09:16.240 Shadow Immigration Minister, Angus Taylor the Shadow Treasurer. That's the three. 0:09:16.880 --> 0:09:20.080 The suggestion tonight is that Dan Teen is the least 0:09:20.200 --> 0:09:21.840 likely to be leader of the three. So does he 0:09:21.880 --> 0:09:25.360 get behind Angus Taylor or does he get behind Susan Lay. 0:09:25.720 --> 0:09:27.520 Now I'm not going to pretend to know the absolute 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:30.760 inner workings of who backs who and who factionally this 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:34.320 and who factionally that. But one name that has dropped out. 0:09:34.440 --> 0:09:37.360 It was first reported by Peter Kredlin last night. Reason 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:39.040 why I should watch all of our shows all of 0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:41.760 the time is that Andrew Hasty is out of the race. 0:09:41.800 --> 0:09:45.480 Now I've got to say I'm disappointed. This bloke looks 0:09:45.520 --> 0:09:48.280 great on TV, had a great result in Western Australia 0:09:48.480 --> 0:09:50.680 represents a generational change and I think would be an 0:09:50.679 --> 0:09:54.240 absolutely fresh face for the leadership. I also know that 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:56.400 he's got a young family and being a leader from 0:09:56.400 --> 0:09:59.320 Western Australia is very difficult. Why because of time zones, 0:09:59.320 --> 0:10:01.679 which means you've got to really early and you've got 0:10:01.720 --> 0:10:04.040 to spend plenty of time on the East Coast fundraising, 0:10:04.080 --> 0:10:06.839 many time away from your family. But if you run 0:10:06.840 --> 0:10:08.760 for a set in Parliament, one always presumes there's one 0:10:08.800 --> 0:10:10.240 hundred and fifty people who think they should be the 0:10:10.280 --> 0:10:12.720 leader of their party and eventually should be the Prime minister. 0:10:13.280 --> 0:10:15.080 And I know that the more cynical part of us 0:10:15.080 --> 0:10:17.400 will say, well, he's just sitting back and waiting and 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:19.360 somebody else can have the hospital past of the next 0:10:19.360 --> 0:10:21.160 three years or the next six years and then he 0:10:21.480 --> 0:10:24.720 comes to prominence. I don't like that attitude, and I'm 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:27.440 not saying that is his attitude, but I say everyone 0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:30.800 should be seen who wants to lead today, tomorrow or 0:10:30.800 --> 0:10:32.960 in ten years time should put up their hand to 0:10:33.000 --> 0:10:35.560 show that they should be considered in such a fashion. 0:10:35.559 --> 0:10:37.840 So I'm disappointed that he's not going to be running, 0:10:38.320 --> 0:10:42.680 but it seems like it is now down to Angus 0:10:42.720 --> 0:10:46.160 Taylor versus Susan Lay. Now I'm not going to suggest 0:10:46.200 --> 0:10:48.640 which one should or shouldn't win, or is or isn't 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:50.200 going to win, but there are a couple of things 0:10:50.200 --> 0:10:53.640 that I think people should consider about not just learning 0:10:53.679 --> 0:10:55.760 a lesson, but be seen to be learning a lesson 0:10:55.800 --> 0:11:01.920 after an election result before eight was cast, there are 0:11:01.960 --> 0:11:04.400 more women in the Australian political system than there are 0:11:04.600 --> 0:11:08.560 men in virtually every single state in the country. In fact, 0:11:09.160 --> 0:11:12.679 there's nine point two million female voters eight point eight 0:11:12.960 --> 0:11:17.040 male voters. And just to make my point one more time, 0:11:17.720 --> 0:11:24.640 of the twelve seats of the Liberal Party lost all twelve, one, two, three, four, seven, eight, nine, ten, 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:28.640 eleven twelve seats had more female voters in them than men. 0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:33.480 Nothing to see here, nothing at all to me. It 0:11:33.520 --> 0:11:37.120 seems fairly obvious. And again I'm not endorsing, but come on, 0:11:37.600 --> 0:11:39.120 you want to be not just learn a lesson, but 0:11:39.200 --> 0:11:42.079 seem to be a lesson. You've got a deputy seems 0:11:42.120 --> 0:11:44.080 to me like a fairly obvious choice. But we'll see 0:11:44.120 --> 0:11:47.319 what happens and we'll talk with either into the future. 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:51.320 Plenty of people who are part of the Liberal Party 0:11:51.400 --> 0:11:53.360 have had plenty to say in the past couple of days. 0:11:53.400 --> 0:11:55.480 He's just a sample of what they think went wrong 0:11:55.520 --> 0:11:59.439 and where they should go to from here. Elections are 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:04.000 bruising and at the moment the Liberal and National Parties 0:12:04.000 --> 0:12:05.079 have got soul soarching to. 0:12:05.040 --> 0:12:07.800 Do in those communities which really do rely on work 0:12:07.840 --> 0:12:08.240 from home. 0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:10.400 It did do some damage, There's no doubt about it. 0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:12.320 I think there are people inside the party that didn't 0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:13.880 want Peter to become the prime minister. 0:12:13.960 --> 0:12:15.960 We are facing an existential crisis here. 0:12:16.000 --> 0:12:19.440 We really need to change quite fundamentally how we go 0:12:19.520 --> 0:12:21.440 about business, and. 0:12:21.520 --> 0:12:25.280 The main issue is that we didn't have enough work 0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:30.760 done and we had many years to develop policy, and 0:12:31.120 --> 0:12:36.079 agreeably there was not enough ambition, particularly on the economics site. 0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:39.320 We need to listen to what the country are telling us, 0:12:39.360 --> 0:12:41.720 and through their voting, they're telling us that they don't 0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:45.200 see themselves represented in the Liberal Party as we stand 0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:47.720 here today, and we need to understand that and we 0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:48.640 need to move forward. 0:12:48.800 --> 0:12:52.280 I know who I won't be supporting. I think when 0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:56.000 you've had roles leading what was supposed to be the 0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:58.559 economic narrative, when you were supposed to be putting together 0:12:58.640 --> 0:13:03.520 tax policies, you were supposed to be delivering that sort 0:13:03.520 --> 0:13:05.160 of messaging for the coalition. 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:07.640 There's certain people that I think need to. 0:13:07.520 --> 0:13:10.040 Do a lot of reflection themselves on what their role 0:13:10.240 --> 0:13:12.640 was in miss laws and perhaps putting your hand up 0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:16.120 for the leadership is not exactly where your strength lies. 0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:20.520 We were let down by posters and strategists, which frankly 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:24.000 gave us a bum steer of the worst order. And 0:13:24.040 --> 0:13:26.960 now we have the result to fit those bits of 0:13:27.000 --> 0:13:29.480 bad advice. Where was the urgent care clinics in the 0:13:29.600 --> 0:13:32.320 small communities? Where was our support for the tazzy health system? 0:13:32.520 --> 0:13:33.199 Labor did it? 0:13:33.360 --> 0:13:33.800 We didn't. 0:13:33.880 --> 0:13:36.559 We were ignored with our requests and as a result 0:13:36.640 --> 0:13:39.840 we've lost Bass, We've lost Braddon, and I can't say 0:13:39.840 --> 0:13:41.200 there's getting lines anytime soon. 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:44.920 All right, So impressive haircuts and very strong opinions in 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:47.560 all of that. Geez, I wonder whom Polly Hughes may 0:13:47.559 --> 0:13:50.960 be talking about. She's almost having fun with what is 0:13:51.280 --> 0:13:53.480 going on right now. But there is one grip that 0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:57.400 I am not going to let off the hook. The 0:13:57.520 --> 0:14:04.440 posters who were so wrong, I mean so wrong. These 0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:06.880 were the posters who were the private polsters to the 0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:10.520 Liberal Party. The Freshwater Organization and some sideries around it. 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:13.319 These were the people who claimed that they were fifty 0:14:13.320 --> 0:14:15.200 to fifty and lots of seeds. They claimed that the 0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:19.480 leader was five points up in his seat when he 0:14:19.760 --> 0:14:23.720 was on his way out the door. Now, as we 0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:26.880 showed you on Sunday night, the poster took to the 0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:29.320 Sydney Morning Sorry to the Financial Review to say the 0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:31.880 three different reasons why they missed it and they are 0:14:31.880 --> 0:14:34.680 doing everything they can too possibly save their backside. Why 0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:37.760 because there's a lot of money involved here. You lose 0:14:37.800 --> 0:14:40.320 a contract to be the poster for a media organization, 0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:42.560 you lose a lot of money. But in the same 0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:44.920 way that the Morgan Pole told us that Mark Latham 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:47.400 was going to be the prime minister, the Freshwater pole 0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:51.960 needs to spend probably three years in the wilderness. That's 0:14:52.000 --> 0:14:53.600 just the way it goes. They have to show that 0:14:53.640 --> 0:14:55.480 they get it right before they even get invited back 0:14:55.480 --> 0:14:57.800 into the room, let alone actually back into the heart 0:14:58.040 --> 0:15:01.080 of a decision maker when it comes to a political 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:05.600 party and nice try the people inside either the Liberal 0:15:05.680 --> 0:15:09.360 Party or the polling organization who knows who've decided to 0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:12.320 start leaking the truth that was really being told by 0:15:12.320 --> 0:15:16.400 the posters. There's plenty of evidence that I'm pretty sure 0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:18.120 plenty of people will be willing to push back to 0:15:18.160 --> 0:15:22.400 say nice try saying I was always telling you were 0:15:22.480 --> 0:15:24.960 headed in the wrong direction when the numbers night after 0:15:25.040 --> 0:15:27.360 night after night after night, week after week after week 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:32.320 after week, were wrong, way wrong. So I get it, 0:15:32.360 --> 0:15:33.640 and I get what they're doing, and I get how 0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:35.520 they're trying to save their backside, and they know that 0:15:35.680 --> 0:15:38.440 throwing the Liberal Party under the bus is the way 0:15:38.440 --> 0:15:40.800 to save their own backside. But the reality is the 0:15:40.840 --> 0:15:43.160 reputational damage when you get it wrong. And this is 0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:45.200 the thing about Pulses that I will say I actually 0:15:45.240 --> 0:15:48.040 admire is that we can tell straight up if they 0:15:48.040 --> 0:15:50.520 get it right or they're wrong. Now we know that 0:15:50.600 --> 0:15:53.800 News poll pretty close, we know that red Bridge the 0:15:53.880 --> 0:15:56.320 people that we like to talk to, and obviously Costumarus 0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:58.400 has been a big part of our pre election and 0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:01.040 now post election. Look is guest on the show tonight 0:16:01.040 --> 0:16:03.600 and we'll talk about how Australia has changed in lots 0:16:03.640 --> 0:16:05.400 of different ways. In fact, we'll do that in some 0:16:05.440 --> 0:16:07.800 detail in a couple of moments. Time they nailed it, 0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:10.160 well done, high fives, you get to play again and 0:16:10.200 --> 0:16:12.800 we trust you over the next three years. But the 0:16:12.800 --> 0:16:15.480 people who were saying as late as a week and 0:16:15.520 --> 0:16:16.960 a bit ago, the Libs are going to go in 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:21.200 ten seats, You're off to the wilderness. And no amount 0:16:21.240 --> 0:16:24.000 of trying to leak against the Liberals or the politicians 0:16:24.280 --> 0:16:28.040 who lost the election is going to save their backside, 0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:32.200 all right, and speaking about how the vote has changed 0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:34.760 over time. I want to spend a bit of time 0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:36.160 on this because this is going to be part of 0:16:36.480 --> 0:16:39.400 our discussion tonight. Now again, we're not going to wallow. 0:16:39.600 --> 0:16:41.640 I mean, you know the Libs lost, right, you know 0:16:41.680 --> 0:16:43.840 the Libs lost. They lost big, and you know where 0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:47.280 they lost everywhere. You know, there's some silver linings where 0:16:47.280 --> 0:16:48.480 there's a little bit of a win back here, a 0:16:48.520 --> 0:16:51.520 little come back there. Great, but there are deeper things 0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:54.920 inside worth talking about. Now. For those that have only 0:16:55.080 --> 0:16:57.760 just joined us or maybe missed a show on Sunday, 0:16:58.400 --> 0:17:00.400 I want to point you to Sky News. Do that? 0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:02.920 Are you to the YouTube channel? And I make sure 0:17:03.040 --> 0:17:05.680 on our socials just go searching for Paul Murray Live 0:17:05.920 --> 0:17:10.840 that I have posted my response to the election now 0:17:10.840 --> 0:17:15.080 similar to Peter and her spectacular detailed response last night. 0:17:15.119 --> 0:17:17.520 All of that is up to be seen, and I 0:17:17.520 --> 0:17:19.320 will take it as read that you will have seen 0:17:19.400 --> 0:17:22.320 those things, so you're able to see the five ideas 0:17:22.359 --> 0:17:25.520 that I had for the organization, the emotional side of 0:17:25.560 --> 0:17:28.280 things about millions of people who aren't feeling great. So 0:17:28.280 --> 0:17:30.000 I'm not just going to repeat that over and over 0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:32.359 and over for everyone who has missed it, but point 0:17:32.359 --> 0:17:35.119 you in the direction that yes, that has been said. 0:17:35.400 --> 0:17:38.280 And I'm not shying away from the difficulties of just 0:17:38.320 --> 0:17:40.439 a few days ago, and in a few weeks it 0:17:40.440 --> 0:17:42.280 will be just as difficult, and in a few months 0:17:42.280 --> 0:17:44.600 it will be just as difficult. All Right, I'm not 0:17:44.600 --> 0:17:46.520 going to sit in the world of denial and happy talk. 0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:50.439 We're going to deal with the reality of things. But 0:17:50.520 --> 0:17:54.560 there are a few things that no political party had 0:17:54.720 --> 0:18:00.240 any hand in involving itself in this election. This does not, 0:18:00.280 --> 0:18:03.000 in any way, shape or form watered down how bad 0:18:03.000 --> 0:18:05.480 things were for the Libs. Okay, make it very clear, 0:18:05.560 --> 0:18:08.400 May I yell it to the cheap, cheap seats almost 0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:10.159 that are going to try to say there he is 0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:13.040 trying to find a way around it. No, no, no, no, I 0:18:13.080 --> 0:18:16.639 couldn't be more honest painfully honest about what has happened. 0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:20.280 But I want to show you the polling that I 0:18:20.359 --> 0:18:24.840 thought was most correct during the election, and it shows 0:18:24.960 --> 0:18:29.440 us that events outside of anything that either party could do, 0:18:30.200 --> 0:18:36.840 did push people in a direction. Now, the politicians, the media, 0:18:37.200 --> 0:18:40.400 the social media, they help exacerbate these pushes, so maybe 0:18:40.400 --> 0:18:43.760 they become slightly bigger or slightly smaller, depending on what 0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:46.160 side of the fence that you live in. Now, I've 0:18:46.160 --> 0:18:49.040 shown you already before that more women were voting in 0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:52.280 this election than at any other time before, and more 0:18:52.320 --> 0:18:55.520 than men. I've also shown you that when you look 0:18:55.560 --> 0:18:57.720 at the electoral Role, which in many ways is kind 0:18:57.760 --> 0:18:59.560 of one of the best polls that's out there, because 0:18:59.600 --> 0:19:02.920 you can go by seating workout under fifty over fifty, 0:19:04.000 --> 0:19:05.879 and that number is pretty clear. There's six hundred and 0:19:05.920 --> 0:19:09.480 seventeen thousand more people under the age of fifty than 0:19:09.520 --> 0:19:12.119 the eight point eight million people who are under the 0:19:12.160 --> 0:19:14.600 age of fifty. I'm going to keep an eye on 0:19:14.600 --> 0:19:17.800 this every six months and every year between now and 0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:20.680 the election, because we are going to start to get 0:19:20.720 --> 0:19:26.080 to see what is really going on, and also what 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:30.200 we can have a look at here is the waves. Now, 0:19:30.240 --> 0:19:33.560 this was done where there were five different polls that 0:19:33.600 --> 0:19:37.720 were done by the Red Bridge organization that focused in 0:19:37.800 --> 0:19:42.679 on twenty seats that are known to have been marginal seats, 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:46.840 sometimes Liberals, sometimes Labor. Okay, Now, the way to read 0:19:46.880 --> 0:19:49.080 this chart is to look at the bottom right hand 0:19:49.119 --> 0:19:52.639 corner first, because that was wave one, when the Liberal 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:56.280 Party was fifty two, the Labor Party was forty eight. 0:19:56.920 --> 0:19:59.000 In the second wave it was fifty to fifty. In 0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:03.199 the third wave it was Labor fifty three forty seven, 0:20:03.440 --> 0:20:06.400 in the fourth wave it was forty five fifty five, 0:20:06.480 --> 0:20:09.080 and in the last it was exactly the same. So 0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:12.520