WEBVTT - Is the Coalition back from the dead?

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<v Speaker 1>From Sports Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven am.

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<v Speaker 1>Yesterday the coalition was dead. Today it's back on life

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<v Speaker 1>support after a dramatic split. The Liberals and Nationals are

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<v Speaker 1>suddenly back at the table trying to patch things up

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<v Speaker 1>after a breakup neither side seemed to plan for now.

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<v Speaker 1>All eyes are on Susan Lee. The decision she makes

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<v Speaker 1>in the next few days will not just shape her

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<v Speaker 1>leadership but the future of the party itself. Today chief

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<v Speaker 1>political correspondent for the Saturday Paper Karen Barlow, and while

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<v Speaker 1>the Coalition are back talking again and whether they can

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<v Speaker 1>really trust each other moving forward. It's Friday May twenty three, Karen.

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<v Speaker 1>After the standoff earlier this week, we've now seen both

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<v Speaker 1>leaders head back to the table. What shifted in the

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<v Speaker 1>last twenty four hours to make reconciliation suddenly plausible?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, there's a sense of will politics slow down here

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<v Speaker 2>at Parliament House? What shifted is there's been a very

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<v Speaker 2>important concession from David Little Proud. There was much tooing

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<v Speaker 2>and throwing over whether he demanded cabinet solidarity being broken

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<v Speaker 2>up by the Nationals and that there would be the

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<v Speaker 2>possibility of a free vote for the Nationals if they

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<v Speaker 2>were still in the coalition, so they could speak freely

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<v Speaker 2>on issues important to them which would be separate to

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<v Speaker 2>the Liberals.

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<v Speaker 1>Now.

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<v Speaker 2>Initially Susan Lee said that that had been discussed, David

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<v Speaker 2>Little Proud said it hadn't been, and then there was

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<v Speaker 2>this tooing and throwing on live TV on seven point

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<v Speaker 2>thirty ABC, where Lee's office interjected by a text message

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<v Speaker 2>and said, well, it actually had been. So that sounds messy,

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<v Speaker 2>but really cabinet solidarity is an absolute essential point for

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<v Speaker 2>the coalition. They have to be together. I've been told

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<v Speaker 2>that no other leader had that asked of them before.

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<v Speaker 2>Tony Abbott, John Howard, Malcolm Turnbulls, Scott Morris and nobody

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<v Speaker 2>had been asked that but Susan Lee. Susan Lee said

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<v Speaker 2>no because it's not done, and Little Proud. It took

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<v Speaker 2>another day for Little Proud to come out in a

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<v Speaker 2>doorstop interview at Parliament House to say actually, yes I

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<v Speaker 2>did ask for it. I do understand it was an

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<v Speaker 2>impossible ask for Susan Lee and I immediately back down.

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<v Speaker 3>She made it very clear the cabinet solidarity that we've

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<v Speaker 3>had and the processes around that will remain that's why

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<v Speaker 3>it wasn't up for debate. I think I thought it

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<v Speaker 3>was fair and reasonable what Susan Lee put back in writing.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's where we're at. They basically had a disagreement

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<v Speaker 2>over something really important to the coalition and now we're

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<v Speaker 2>free to potentially talk about whether the coalition should still exist, and.

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<v Speaker 1>So both leaders met yesterday to talk through it a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit more. How much do we know about the

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<v Speaker 1>path ahead for Susan Lee and Little Proud.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, for David Little Proud, the four sticking points that

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<v Speaker 2>he has demanded on behalf of the party room still

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<v Speaker 2>exists and is still firm on that, and that is

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<v Speaker 2>for nuclear power, the twenty billion dollar Regional Future Fund,

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<v Speaker 2>universal phone service, and divestiture powers to break up the

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<v Speaker 2>big supermarkets. That's still important to Dave Little Proud. He's

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<v Speaker 2>standing firm.

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<v Speaker 3>But these four policy areas are important to the lives

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<v Speaker 3>and the livelihoods of people that I represent. And the

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<v Speaker 3>fact that the Liberal Party Room is now prepared to

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<v Speaker 3>have that conversation I think speaks volumes about the fact

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<v Speaker 3>that we should allow that to happen.

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<v Speaker 2>The issue for Susan Lee is she has now agreed

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<v Speaker 2>to take those four positions to her party room and

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<v Speaker 2>see if they're acceptable or not. So that will be

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<v Speaker 2>a process. We don't know how long it will take.

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<v Speaker 2>It could be days, it could be weeks, but certainly

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<v Speaker 2>you would understand that it would be before Parliament returns,

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<v Speaker 2>which has just been announced as being July twenty two.

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<v Speaker 1>So Susan Lee has addressed those for fours sticking points and

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<v Speaker 1>agreed to take them to her party room. Does that

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<v Speaker 1>concession signal real.

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<v Speaker 2>Movement considering we were talking about the end of the

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<v Speaker 2>coalition and it being a historic moment. Yes, it is

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<v Speaker 2>real movement, but it doesn't mean that the party room

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<v Speaker 2>will take them on. It's entirely likely that many of

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<v Speaker 2>them will. So the Universal Phone service agreement highly likely,

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<v Speaker 2>the twenty billion dollar Regional Future Fund highly likely as well.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the real sticking point will be nuclear power.

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<v Speaker 2>There is a thought inside the Liberal Party that it

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<v Speaker 2>was a drag on its particular vote and a big

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<v Speaker 2>explainer for the May three election loss and how devastating

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<v Speaker 2>it was, so they really do want to have a

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<v Speaker 2>good hard think about that. So we're not sure really

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<v Speaker 2>how it's going to go forward, but that's what the

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<v Speaker 2>Nationals want and the Liberal Party at this point has said, well,

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<v Speaker 2>we'll have a chat about it before Parliament resumes.

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<v Speaker 1>That's the fact that talks regimes so quickly tell you

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<v Speaker 1>that both parts this must have been worried about how

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<v Speaker 1>destructive a breakup would be.

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, certainly there was a lot of talk inside and

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<v Speaker 2>outside the two parties about how destructive this riffed, this

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<v Speaker 2>absolute fissure of the coalition would be going forward. There

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<v Speaker 2>were individuals quite senior people such as Darren Chester, Barnaby

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<v Speaker 2>Joyce and the former Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack. They

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<v Speaker 2>were urging inside the party and talking to journalists at

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<v Speaker 2>the same time saying we want this ending sooner rather

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<v Speaker 2>than later. There was some talk that you know, for

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<v Speaker 2>the Liberals there was a silver lining and perhaps being

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<v Speaker 2>unshackled from the National Party would help them reach out

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<v Speaker 2>to the people that had felt abandoned by the Liberal Party.

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<v Speaker 2>But I spoke to a senior Liberal and he told

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<v Speaker 2>me that this was an act of mutually assured destruction

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<v Speaker 2>and would harm both the Nationals and the Liberal Party.

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<v Speaker 2>He was talking about, you know, as you lead up

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<v Speaker 2>to the next selection due in twenty twenty eight, if

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<v Speaker 2>there were three cornered contests with both the Nationals and

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<v Speaker 2>Liberal Party running candidates up against say till type climate

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<v Speaker 2>two hundred candidates, there would be problems on both sides

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<v Speaker 2>because they would be drags on the votes for each other.

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<v Speaker 2>It would also be a problem he said, for the

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<v Speaker 2>likes of Bridget Mackenzie and Senator Ross Keddell. Their Senate careers,

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<v Speaker 2>I was told would be over because there would be

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<v Speaker 2>no joint Senate tickets, so they would actually then be

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<v Speaker 2>further down and likely lose their positions. And then you've

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<v Speaker 2>got the case of the Nationals where they would be

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<v Speaker 2>with the decision of coming out of the coalition, foregoing

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<v Speaker 2>extra staffing, extra pay, the prominence of being the official opposition.

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<v Speaker 2>There was a lot at stake in this, and we

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<v Speaker 2>still haven't had it resolved, but I was told that,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, as you get closer to the election, this

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<v Speaker 2>is really something for the Liberal Party to consider, because

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<v Speaker 2>it's not just good for them because they would be

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<v Speaker 2>seen forever as being tied to the coalition. They can't

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<v Speaker 2>government without the National Party in that coalition. Drawing their

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<v Speaker 2>numbers towards what they need as a majority in the

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<v Speaker 2>House of representatives and that people would be forever thinking

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<v Speaker 2>what is the National Party going to do to affect

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<v Speaker 2>what the Liberal Party will stand for in Parliament.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up after the break the choice Susan Lee has

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<v Speaker 1>to make. Susan Lee has been praised for showing leadership

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<v Speaker 1>and not being held to ransom by the Nationals. But

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<v Speaker 1>now she's suddenly willing to negotiate. So what does that

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<v Speaker 1>say about her first test as leader.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, certainly she had two options. She could have given

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<v Speaker 2>into the Nationals or she could have stood up for

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<v Speaker 2>the Liberal Party, and she chose to stand up for

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<v Speaker 2>a party. So certainly she's getting kudos from Liberal MPs

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<v Speaker 2>for being that sort of leader. There is a question

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<v Speaker 2>over whether the National Party would have pulled this on

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<v Speaker 2>Angus Taylor should he have been elected by the Liberal

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<v Speaker 2>Party room as leader, and David Little Proud assured everyone

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<v Speaker 2>that certainly that would have been the case, that they,

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<v Speaker 2>as the Nationals, had this principal position and they were

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<v Speaker 2>going to stand up for the people that voted them in.

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<v Speaker 2>But you know, we are seeing this muscled up National Party.

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<v Speaker 2>They're doing something that they haven't done before after an election.

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<v Speaker 2>They've actually decided to break free and ask for more.

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<v Speaker 2>So certainly they're emboldened by how they held their ground

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<v Speaker 2>electorally and didn't really lose seats except for a Senate

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<v Speaker 2>position in the loss of the Deputy Leader, Peren Davy.

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<v Speaker 2>So you could argue whether they've actually misread the moods. Regardless,

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<v Speaker 2>because there's that question over they were a drag on

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<v Speaker 2>the Liberal Party and therefore a drag on the entire coalition.

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<v Speaker 1>So I was looking at one point as other Liberals

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<v Speaker 1>would be alone as the opposition, meaning they get the

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<v Speaker 1>plumb jobs, the better money, and more questions in Parliament.

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<v Speaker 1>If they do get back together, well, let's still be

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<v Speaker 1>the case.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I guess if they sort it out and they

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<v Speaker 2>are a coalition again and they've agreed to cabinet solidarity

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<v Speaker 2>and they'll speak as one voice on policies, then they

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<v Speaker 2>go back to as normal normal as it can be,

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<v Speaker 2>as the coalition is vastly reduced in numbers in the

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<v Speaker 2>House of Representatives and we've got the Labor Party which

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<v Speaker 2>is going to return to Parliament with this super majority

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<v Speaker 2>likely to be ninety four. Certainly as we hear the

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<v Speaker 2>parliamentary return day is July twenty two. Certainly, all eyes

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<v Speaker 2>will be on how they will perform in Parliament against

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<v Speaker 2>an emboldened Anthony Albanezi.

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<v Speaker 1>So, as you just said, Karen, Parliament does return on

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<v Speaker 1>July the twenty second, So stepping it out, what's the

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<v Speaker 1>windy here for Lee a little proud to strike a

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<v Speaker 1>fresh coalition deal.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, we don't know. It could be days, it could

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<v Speaker 2>be weeks. Certainly they would have to do it before

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<v Speaker 2>Parliament returns. They do want their front bench, that's all

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<v Speaker 2>on pause. And I think the advice they've had from

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<v Speaker 2>party elders, including John Howard, is that the longer you

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<v Speaker 2>put this off, the harder it is to return to

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<v Speaker 2>a combined United front bench for the coalition. So all

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<v Speaker 2>eyes will be on them to sort this out pretty soon.

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<v Speaker 1>It seasonally is choice ultimately between having a coalition and

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<v Speaker 1>the strength of that, or having the freedom to modernize

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<v Speaker 1>a wing back urben voters.

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<v Speaker 2>I think she does need to do both. I think

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<v Speaker 2>she needs to modernize the Liberal Party. I wouldn't be

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<v Speaker 2>surprised to see new branding as the New Liberals, as

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<v Speaker 2>the New Labor emerged in the United Kingdom not so

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<v Speaker 2>long ago. There is also this need to be the

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<v Speaker 2>coalition they just cannot form government. They cannot be this

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<v Speaker 2>bigger force without combining with the Nationals, and it will

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<v Speaker 2>be interesting to see who she does put on her

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<v Speaker 2>front bench. Certainly there's talk that Ted O'Brien, the Deputy

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<v Speaker 2>leader of the Liberal Party, will probably take Shadow Treasurer

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<v Speaker 2>and leave an open question as to where she'll put

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<v Speaker 2>the likes of Angus Taylor and just intera Napagin proprice'

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<v Speaker 2>got to remember that the defection of just Inter Napage

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<v Speaker 2>Proprice really upset the Nationals and may have had something

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<v Speaker 2>to do with how they've behaved over the past week

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<v Speaker 2>in actually pulling this extraordinary act of causing this rift

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<v Speaker 2>to the coalition.

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<v Speaker 1>And do you think there's going to be trust issues

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<v Speaker 1>moving forward?

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<v Speaker 2>I think in the background there's always trust issues, but

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<v Speaker 2>there are paying to tell us it's a trusted relationship.

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<v Speaker 2>Up until this point, it had survived apart from a

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<v Speaker 2>couple of circumstances, the last in nineteen eighty seven, for

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<v Speaker 2>eighty years. This is something that they know they need

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<v Speaker 2>each other. But never forget that within political parties, within

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<v Speaker 2>things like the Coalition, there are probably more enemies than

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<v Speaker 2>those on the other side. So yeah, You'll never know.

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<v Speaker 2>But trust is an issue in politics, isn't it.

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<v Speaker 1>It certainly is, Karen, Thank you so much for being

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<v Speaker 1>on top of all of this, no worries.

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<v Speaker 2>Thank you.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news, two people have been found dead

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<v Speaker 1>and there are grave fears about three people missing in

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<v Speaker 1>floodwaters in New South Wales. The New South Wales Premier

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<v Speaker 1>Chris means that the state is bracing for more bad

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<v Speaker 1>news over the next twenty four hours. There are floodwaters

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<v Speaker 1>in several parts of the state. The federal government has

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<v Speaker 1>activated disaster recovery allowances for some of the most effective communities,

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<v Speaker 1>including Kempsey, Port, Macquarie and Dungog and to Israeli ambusy

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<v Speaker 1>staff have been shot dead outside the Capitol Jewish Museum

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<v Speaker 1>in Washington, d C. Police have arrested a suspect who

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<v Speaker 1>reportedly shattered pro Palestinian slogans while in custody. Authorities are

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<v Speaker 1>treating the shooting as a possible hate crime. Seven Am

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<v Speaker 1>is a daily show from Schwartz Media and the Saturday

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<v Speaker 1>Paper is made by Atticus Bastow, Shane Anderson, Chris dan Gate,

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<v Speaker 1>Eric Jensen, Ruby Jones, Sarah McFee, Travis Evans, Zoltanfetio and

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<v Speaker 1>Met Daniel James. Our theme music is by Ned Beckley

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<v Speaker 1>and Josh Hogan of Envelope Bordio. Thanks for listening, See

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<v Speaker 1>you next week.