WEBVTT - Treason, coup plots and corruption: Behind Xi’s military purge

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<v Speaker 1>Shi Jimpings fired his top military general, John Yushah amid

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<v Speaker 1>rumors of treason, corruption and scandal.

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<v Speaker 2>Now we have got these sort of dribs and drabs

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<v Speaker 2>of rumors coming out, and the statement seem to first

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<v Speaker 2>of all, implay corruption in a broader sense. Also, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>one of the most wild rumors that's been put out

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<v Speaker 2>is that he was selling or giving nuclear weapons secrets

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<v Speaker 2>to the Americans, which seemed frankly pretty unlikely.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a stunning sacking in an ongoing purge of the

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<v Speaker 1>armed forces. But the crackdown goes even further. Around one

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<v Speaker 1>million Chinese have been disciplined in She's drive against corruption.

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<v Speaker 1>So with the military and crisis and she clearing the decks,

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<v Speaker 1>what does this mean for China's ambition to take Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Nicole Johnston and you're listening to seven AM Today.

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<v Speaker 1>Expert in US Asia Relations at the Harvard Kennedy School

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<v Speaker 1>and co host of the China podcast Face Off, Rana

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<v Speaker 1>Mitter on She's Purge for Power. It's Thursday, January twenty nine. Rana,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for speaking with me today. Let's start with Jiang Yoshah.

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<v Speaker 1>Who is he and what do we know about why

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<v Speaker 1>he was sacked.

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<v Speaker 2>So Jiang Yoshah was until just a few days ago,

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<v Speaker 2>the first vice chairman of the CMC Central Military Commission

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<v Speaker 2>of China. Probably the best way to understand that is

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<v Speaker 2>that he was the most senior uniformed officer. But just

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<v Speaker 2>a couple of the terms that had been used to

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<v Speaker 2>explain General jog and also one of his colleagues who

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<v Speaker 2>was also fun at the same time. One was endangering

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<v Speaker 2>the Communist Party's ruling foundation, the exerting of vile influence

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<v Speaker 2>on the part, and perhaps the most significant one, undermining

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<v Speaker 2>the Chairman's authority, meaning Chairman Chiten Ping, of course, and

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<v Speaker 2>when they did this, they said that they needed to

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<v Speaker 2>eliminate ideological toxins and promote organizational healing, so some pretty

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<v Speaker 2>fruity language being used there. This is pretty much unprecedented.

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<v Speaker 2>So the Central Military Commission has generally had six people

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<v Speaker 2>on it, and really it's very rare for anyone to

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<v Speaker 2>disappear in an untimely fashion from the Central Military Commission,

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<v Speaker 2>let alone what's happened in the last year or two,

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<v Speaker 2>which is of the six, not one, not two, but

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<v Speaker 2>five have gone basically been purged on the grounds of

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<v Speaker 2>corruption or other charges. Juanui certainly the most spectacular, the

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<v Speaker 2>most senior. Nobody thought he was vulnerably clearly was if

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<v Speaker 2>I were, you know, the sixth one there Jun Jarmin.

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<v Speaker 2>Now I'd been a nervous terms of where that might

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<v Speaker 2>be might be going, but certainly in terms of thinking about,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, the real top ranks of China's military being

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<v Speaker 2>swept away the guests so far as just a guess,

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<v Speaker 2>but let's put it out there. The next five who

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<v Speaker 2>get put into those positions will be even more people

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<v Speaker 2>who basically do what she Jenpin tells them to do.

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<v Speaker 1>There's also a personal element to this. She's fired one

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<v Speaker 1>of his own because they're both considered princelings in the

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<v Speaker 1>Communist Party from similar backgrounds, aren't they.

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<v Speaker 2>That's right, there are long standing family connections between the

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<v Speaker 2>two that go back decades. Yet another reason why people

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<v Speaker 2>you know, probably like me, were under the impression that, well, actually,

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<v Speaker 2>it seems very unlikely that he's going to get kicked

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<v Speaker 2>out because there's such a long history between them. But

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<v Speaker 2>of course, often family or cohort or peer relationships could

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<v Speaker 2>be the most bitter as well as the most close.

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<v Speaker 2>At least in this case, it appears that that family

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<v Speaker 2>closeness hasn't saved them.

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<v Speaker 3>The seriousness in touch corruption in China is clear. President

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<v Speaker 3>Shujin Peng, who is also a General Secretary of the

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<v Speaker 3>Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, says corruption

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<v Speaker 3>threatens the party's very survival and he's vowed to fight

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<v Speaker 3>it at every level, or as he put it, from

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<v Speaker 3>the tigers to the flies.

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<v Speaker 1>Rana, just broadly, could you give us a bit of

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<v Speaker 1>a sense of how widespread this campaign of purging has

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<v Speaker 1>been since she came to power.

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<v Speaker 2>Very broadly speaking, purging has been very widespread under the

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<v Speaker 2>title of anti corruption, that's the phrase that you used

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<v Speaker 2>in the institution called the CDIC, the Central Discipline Inspection Commission,

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<v Speaker 2>as a kind of special and super FBI, with absolutely

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<v Speaker 2>no recourse for people who are arrested under it. They

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<v Speaker 2>can hold you in communicado for I think these six months,

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<v Speaker 2>probably longer than that if they really want to. And

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<v Speaker 2>it's been used to strike terror into the heart of

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<v Speaker 2>corrupt officials in particular. But actually the taking down of

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<v Speaker 2>civilian officials has been going on now for well over

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<v Speaker 2>a decade. And because we think about, you know, the

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<v Speaker 2>ones who are perhaps at the very top elite level,

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<v Speaker 2>those the ones who catch headlines in the western world.

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<v Speaker 2>But actually you can see the way down at the

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<v Speaker 2>provincial level and elsewhere. There's been a tremendous amount of

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<v Speaker 2>anti corruption activity going on.

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<v Speaker 1>As you said, Shi Jimping has said that this is

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<v Speaker 1>all about weeding out that corruption, or the ross, as

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<v Speaker 1>he calls it. But is this really more about consolidating

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<v Speaker 1>total control for him over the armed forces.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it is almost certainly about that, and it

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<v Speaker 2>has a rather ironic implication the short and the long term,

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<v Speaker 2>because in the short term it might actually make the

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<v Speaker 2>prospect of a war between China and said the United

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<v Speaker 2>States actually less likely in the near future. Why because

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<v Speaker 2>if Jiinping thinks that this is the time to really

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<v Speaker 2>concentrate inwards, to be purging the armed forces at the

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<v Speaker 2>senior level and beyond to remake them in a different image,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe his own image, that's not the best moment at which,

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<v Speaker 2>on the grounds of morale, preparation and so forth, to

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<v Speaker 2>launch any kind of really major military campaign. I think

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<v Speaker 2>there's unlikely to be any kind of massive comportation this

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<v Speaker 2>year anyway, because both the United States and China have

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<v Speaker 2>a best interest in the April summer between Si Jinping

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<v Speaker 2>and Donald Trump, going well, But that doesn't say much

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<v Speaker 2>about where things might be in three five years time,

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<v Speaker 2>when presumably the purges will have taken effect, where the

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<v Speaker 2>new cadre of Chinese military leaders will be even more

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<v Speaker 2>in Cheese image than they were for and then the

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<v Speaker 2>idea that maybe they will be much more beholden to

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<v Speaker 2>him rather than the party structures might be more significant.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up. What she's military shakedown means for Taiwan, Rana,

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<v Speaker 1>Let's talk firepower. I saw some of it myself at

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<v Speaker 1>the jew High Air Show in southern China about.

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<v Speaker 3>A year ago.

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<v Speaker 2>To hang out at the coolest places, Nicole, What can

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<v Speaker 2>I said?

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<v Speaker 1>I know, so, as we know, they're expanding shipbuilding, missiles,

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<v Speaker 1>nuclear drones. Could you take us through some of that firepower?

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<v Speaker 1>What have they got?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah? For instance, the development in the last couple of

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<v Speaker 2>years or so of greater capacity to do amphibious attacks,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, land and sea combined using new kinds of

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<v Speaker 2>rolling barges and other equipment of that sort, might or

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<v Speaker 2>might not indicate that an assault on Taiwan was being

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<v Speaker 2>prepared for. Drone technology is something that China is really

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<v Speaker 2>continuing to perfect and one of the testing grounds they

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<v Speaker 2>have is essentially giving the technology, not the drones themselves,

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<v Speaker 2>so to be clear about that, but some of the

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<v Speaker 2>technology that can shape it to the Russians for their

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<v Speaker 2>war in Ukraine, but also a space force. And Donald

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<v Speaker 2>Trump in fact to established the space force in his

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<v Speaker 2>first term on the US side, but China's had one

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<v Speaker 2>for quite some time unclear forces. And again we see

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<v Speaker 2>the new building of missile silos up in Gansu Province

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<v Speaker 2>in the northwest of China. And cyber cyber warfare is

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<v Speaker 2>you know, the warfare of the mid twenty first century.

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<v Speaker 1>All of this was on display at the massive military

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<v Speaker 1>parade that we had in Beijing last year. Putin Kim

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<v Speaker 1>Jong un was there. What was the message that she

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<v Speaker 1>was trying to center the world there.

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<v Speaker 2>One of the things that was very notable about the

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<v Speaker 2>military parade was quite how much it concentrated on hardware.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean huge numbers of missiles, tanks, other pieces of

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<v Speaker 2>equipment being paraded through Gentleman Square. But the vast majority

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<v Speaker 2>of what we saw was very much about China today

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<v Speaker 2>being a fierce nationalistic country that no longer is willing

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<v Speaker 2>to even contemplate going back to the days of World

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<v Speaker 2>War two and around then, when China was a victim

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<v Speaker 2>in the world, instead reconstituting itself as one of the hegemon's,

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<v Speaker 2>one of the leaders of the world, and that military

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<v Speaker 2>equipment that we saw being paraded through was in some

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<v Speaker 2>senses a symbolic but very very clear indication of how

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<v Speaker 2>the capacity to use force is now something that China

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<v Speaker 2>has developed as part of its own sense of its

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<v Speaker 2>own identity and has no intention I suspect of ever

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<v Speaker 2>letting go again.

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<v Speaker 4>Humanity again has to choose between peace and war, theirlog

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<v Speaker 4>and confrontationing win win corporation and zero sum game.

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<v Speaker 1>The world's been waiting and watching to see if and

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<v Speaker 1>when China will take Taiwan by force, even though China,

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<v Speaker 1>for its part, continues to insist that what it wants

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<v Speaker 1>is peaceful reunification. But how does this purge actually affect

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<v Speaker 1>China's readiness for war?

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<v Speaker 2>I think that in the unlikely event of a full

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<v Speaker 2>scale invasion of Taiwan, I do think it's relatively unlikely

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<v Speaker 2>because it would be extraordinarily difficult maneuver to bring off.

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<v Speaker 2>But assuming that the Chiping and the military leadership came

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<v Speaker 2>together and actually wanted to do it. The military purges

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<v Speaker 2>make it much less likely in the short term if

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<v Speaker 2>you're going to undertake an operation that demands that level

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<v Speaker 2>of skill and ability to pull off a huge end.

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<v Speaker 2>Makes D Day look fairly amateur, I would say, in

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<v Speaker 2>some ways, because the distance is involved, then you want

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<v Speaker 2>to have your armed forces on their best possible form.

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<v Speaker 2>Right in the middle of reeling from the you know,

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<v Speaker 2>continuing bang bang bang are the loss of these top

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<v Speaker 2>figures and in the many mid level figures as well,

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<v Speaker 2>I would say that this does not seem the best

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<v Speaker 2>state of the armed forces that would be in a

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<v Speaker 2>position to undertake an action like the invasion of Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 2>Doesn't mean all that it would never never happen, but

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<v Speaker 2>I think that recent events, including the purchase, making the

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<v Speaker 2>short term much less likely.

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<v Speaker 1>But at the same time, we have had these military

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<v Speaker 1>drills escalating around Taiwan over the last couple of years.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, we have, and I often think that it's when

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<v Speaker 2>China really pushes hard and makes these huge gestures that

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<v Speaker 2>actually it's just a sign saying we haven't forgotten about you.

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<v Speaker 2>We know we're still there, but there's an extent to

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<v Speaker 2>which there's a performance element, a pretty frightening performance element

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<v Speaker 2>to these continuous military exercises. And certainly people on Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 2>where I was just a few weeks ago, perhaps some

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<v Speaker 2>of got used to it. Not to say that this

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<v Speaker 2>isn't dangerous. I mean again, nobody, certainly including me, can

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<v Speaker 2>say that it's impossible that a military assault on Taiwan,

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<v Speaker 2>or a naval blockade or quarantine or other kind of

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<v Speaker 2>gray zone tactic might not be used on Taiwan, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's unlikely to have them.

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<v Speaker 1>So Rana, what does this spectacular military downfall at the

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<v Speaker 1>very top tell us about how she is running the

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<v Speaker 1>armed forces and running the rest of China?

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's fair to say that he's now running

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<v Speaker 2>the armed forces as he has been running the rest

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<v Speaker 2>of China, which is worth an increasing sense of quite

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<v Speaker 2>personalistic dominance. Now it's important to make distinctions. Vladimir Putin

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<v Speaker 2>is probably the best example of someone who has reconstituted

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<v Speaker 2>the entire government around him. She hasn't either tried nor

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<v Speaker 2>I think is easy able to do that, because the

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<v Speaker 2>party's structures and other people within it still actually remain

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<v Speaker 2>very very powerful in many senses, but the shift over

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<v Speaker 2>the last fifteen years or so has been noticeable. Back

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<v Speaker 2>in the twenty twenty twenty tens, China took pride in

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<v Speaker 2>the fact that it had what it called a collective leadership.

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<v Speaker 2>She didn't think did away with all of that when

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<v Speaker 2>he came to power in twenty twelve. Having got the position,

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<v Speaker 2>he turned on sixpence very very quickly and started to

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<v Speaker 2>really purge power centers that might push back against him.

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<v Speaker 2>That was one of their very first pushes against the

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<v Speaker 2>PLA start to happen. So I think we've already seen

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<v Speaker 2>the blueprint really over the last fifteen years that as

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<v Speaker 2>China is a more personalistic one, it's more nationalistic. It's

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<v Speaker 2>one that as Donald Trump himself has observedble that once

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<v Speaker 2>quite admiringly, has created a sort of strong man type

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<v Speaker 2>of vision of what government is that actually has proved

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<v Speaker 2>increasingly attractive to leaders elsewhere who seek to emulate that

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<v Speaker 2>kind of action.

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<v Speaker 1>Rana, thanks for joining me today.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks ver much, Nicole, it's been a pleasure.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news, David Little Proud looks said to

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<v Speaker 1>face a challenge for the Nationals leadership. On Monday. Rogue

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<v Speaker 1>backbencher Colin Boyce says he will move a spill motion

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<v Speaker 1>after Little Proud's decision to remove the nets from the

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<v Speaker 1>coalition last week. Boyce claims the split political suicide for

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<v Speaker 1>the National Party. Little Proud fended off a leadership challenge

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<v Speaker 1>from Matt Canavan, who has far more support than Voice

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<v Speaker 1>after the last election, and their affairs of the Reserve

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<v Speaker 1>Bank could be primed for an interest rate hike after

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<v Speaker 1>a higher than expected rise in inflation, a big jump

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<v Speaker 1>in prices for tourists travel, and the end of the

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<v Speaker 1>electricity subsidy saw annual inflation rise to three point eight percent.

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<v Speaker 1>All four major banks are now tipping a rate rise

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<v Speaker 1>next week. I'm Nicole Johnston. It's a seven am. Thanks

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<v Speaker 1>for listening.