Speaker 1: From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.
Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, November twenty six, twenty twenty five. Labour's likely
Speaker 1: to take a light touch on regulating artificial intelligence when
Speaker 1: it unveils a national AI plan next week. That's an
Speaker 1: exclusive by The Australian's Ben Packham today. In a move
Speaker 1: the government's already discussed with unions, the government will likely
Speaker 1: avoid a system like the European Union, where there's a
Speaker 1: sweeping and strict code to apply to AI models. Australia
Speaker 1: system would likely be more case by case when issues arise.
Speaker 1: That story is live now at the Australian dot Com
Speaker 1: dot U. For one president to call another is a
Speaker 1: big deal. When it's China's Shijinping Ringing Donald J. Trump,
Speaker 1: both men who like to be the most powerful person
Speaker 1: in any inversation, it sends the analysis into overdrive. So
Speaker 1: what did the presidents discuss in their call and what
Speaker 1: does it all mean? Greg Sheridan, is here you ready
Speaker 1: to talk about China?
Speaker 2: Yeah? Absolutely, It's like a quiz.
Speaker 1: Every day I bring you up and grill you about
Speaker 1: something else.
Speaker 2: Nice variety of subjects.
Speaker 1: That's good to This call will be recorded. Greg Sheridan
Speaker 1: is The Australian's Foreign editor. Greg Donald Trump and Shi
Speaker 1: Jinping have spoken on the phone. Reports are emerging from Washington,
Speaker 1: DC that it was President she who called Donald Trump.
Speaker 1: Does it matter who called who when leaders speak at
Speaker 1: this level, not.
Speaker 2: Really, No, No, it doesn't really matter. It's good in
Speaker 2: a way that they're speaking. But the danger has always
Speaker 2: been that Trump is prone to being flattered, and he
Speaker 2: has a weakness for very strong leaders talking to him,
Speaker 2: and both Hi Jinping and Vladimir Putin seem to be
Speaker 2: pretty good at manipulating him pretty well. You know, in principle,
Speaker 2: you've got to be happy that they speak. But the
Speaker 2: other concerning thing about this, though, is there seems to
Speaker 2: be a lack of transparency. Hi Jinping revealed that they
Speaker 2: talked about Taiwan. Trump didn't mention that. I must say
Speaker 2: that instinctively makes me a bit worried.
Speaker 1: You don't think you just forgot.
Speaker 2: No, I certainly don't think he just forgot. There's a
Speaker 2: tremendous challenge in reporting Trump because he is really a
Speaker 2: mixed grill. He does some good things, some things better
Speaker 2: than other people have done in the office, but he
Speaker 2: does some terrible things. Two. I mean, I think this
Speaker 2: piece deal that he's trying to foist on Ukraine is
Speaker 2: a shocking betrayal and very much against America's interests and
Speaker 2: Ukraine's interests and the interests of democracy and so on. Now,
Speaker 2: there's always been the worry that Trump might do a
Speaker 2: similar deal over Taiwan with Shu Jinping. We're certainly not
Speaker 2: at that point yet. But you know, one thing you
Speaker 2: can't rely on from Trump at all is clarity or consistency.
Speaker 1: They seemed to have discussed a number of topics in
Speaker 1: this phone call. One of them was Ukraine. What's China's
Speaker 1: skin in that particular game.
Speaker 2: Well, China has been absolutely critical in enabling Russia to
Speaker 2: prevail in the Ukraine conflict, and America has imposed no
Speaker 2: significant cost on China for doing this. So in the
Speaker 2: early days of American and European sanctions and Ukraine's much
Speaker 2: fiercer than expected military resistance and effort, the Russian economy
Speaker 2: was in a lot of trouble, a great deal of trouble. Now,
Speaker 2: the thing that sustained it more than anything else was
Speaker 2: its Chinese lifeline. It did huge trade with China huge
Speaker 2: energy exports. It also imported a great deal of technology
Speaker 2: from China, which at the very least was what they
Speaker 2: call dual use technology, that is to say, technology which
Speaker 2: is ostensibly for peaceful purposes but is easily converted for
Speaker 2: military purposes. And China gave cover to Iran in North
Speaker 2: Korea to provide military supplies to Russia. And China also
Speaker 2: encouraged the Global South to continue trading with Russia. So
Speaker 2: China has been Russia's best friend through all this conflict
Speaker 2: and has paid really no price. And Russia now looks
Speaker 2: as though it's winning, and China would be delighted at that.
Speaker 2: And if in the end Trump wants to China to
Speaker 2: give a benediction to his coercion of Ukraine into a
Speaker 2: one sided peace agreement, that's not something that fills your
Speaker 2: heart with joy either.
Speaker 1: One of the issues that, as you say, Shijinping said
Speaker 1: that they spoke about was Taiwan. The Chinese kind of
Speaker 1: read out of this phone call said that President she
Speaker 1: reiterated that Taiwan's return to China was an important component
Speaker 1: of the post war international order, and said that mister
Speaker 1: Trump affirmed that the US understands the importance of the
Speaker 1: Taiwan issue to China. Those are platitudes, But what does
Speaker 1: it mean beneath the surface? Do you think there greg
Speaker 1: the fact that this issue was discussed at all in
Speaker 1: a conversation, perhaps that was initiated by President she Well,
Speaker 1: the truth is clear.
Speaker 2: I often have to give you this answer. The truth
Speaker 2: is I don't know, but neither does anybody else. Trump
Speaker 2: is so waybile, so mercurial, so unpredictable. You know. They're
Speaker 2: a very good book by his former national security advisor
Speaker 2: John Bolton, in which he says that he expects Trump
Speaker 2: to do a deal which sells Taiwan out, because Trump
Speaker 2: in private kept saying, look, how tiny the Taiwan market
Speaker 2: is compared to the China market. So Trump does see
Speaker 2: things very much in me cantillist terms. Now, it's been
Speaker 2: an object of American foreign policy forever, since nineteen forty nine,
Speaker 2: that Taiwan should not be conquered by mainland China. It
Speaker 2: will be a shocking thing in principle if this happened.
Speaker 2: There are twenty three twenty four million people in Taiwan.
Speaker 2: They live in a twenty four carot democracy, free elections,
Speaker 2: free change of power, civil liberties. I think it's the
Speaker 2: only Asian country where gay marriage is legal. You know,
Speaker 2: it's just a twenty four carot liberal democratic society. It's
Speaker 2: been ruled by Beijing four years since eighteen ninety five,
Speaker 2: from nineteen forty five to ninee forty nine, who has
Speaker 2: never been ruled by the Communist Party, And there is
Speaker 2: no justification in international law or geostrategic consideration, anything else
Speaker 2: for Beijing to invade Taiwan to take it over. If
Speaker 2: Beijing does that and succeeds, I think that's pretty much
Speaker 2: the end of the American security order in the Pacific,
Speaker 2: diabolical consequences for Australia. It also gives China massive military
Speaker 2: power projection capabilities. But what Trump is showing us is
Speaker 2: that basically he's unlikely ever to fight for Taiwan. He's
Speaker 2: unlikely ever to fight for anything. The sad acronym Taco
Speaker 2: Trump always chickens out, it seems, is pretty true. So
Speaker 2: people say, but look what he did with Iran. But
Speaker 2: in fact, he did one bombing raid with Iran after
Speaker 2: Israel had won the war. Now you know, I praised
Speaker 2: him for it because it made it more likely that
Speaker 2: Iran's nuclear program was severely damaged, but he took no
Speaker 2: risk there Israel took all the risk. And Trump always
Speaker 2: identifies with a winner. Trump identifies with the strong against
Speaker 2: the weak. You know that, I think is why he's
Speaker 2: instinctively sympathetic to Russia against Ukraine, and why he's instinctively
Speaker 2: sympathetic to China against Taiwan. But having said all of that,
Speaker 2: Trump is completely unpredictable, and sometimes when he comes up
Speaker 2: with a bad position he changes that after a week
Speaker 2: or two as well, because certainly there would be tremendous
Speaker 2: hostility within his own party and with an American society
Speaker 2: to conceding Taiwan to Beijing. So Trump will treat this
Speaker 2: as an ongoing negotiation and an ongoing calculation. He will
Speaker 2: be sniffing the wind and looking at what's politically viable.
Speaker 2: He's weaker now than he was six months ago. His
Speaker 2: magabase is starting to fracture a little bit. The Republicans
Speaker 2: were savaged in recent off year elections. Now that is
Speaker 2: a real witch's brew, and we just don't know what
Speaker 2: it's going to issue in. What he doesn't do is
Speaker 2: provide a very stable system of deterrence. The best way
Speaker 2: to keep the peace in Taiwan is to convince the
Speaker 2: Chinese that the cost of action would be prohibitive. He
Speaker 2: doesn't do that, But the Chinaes have to take into
Speaker 2: account the fact that America might react, even though Trump
Speaker 2: gives every indication that they won't. Nonetheless, you know, anything
Speaker 2: is possible with Trump, and the Chinese have to take
Speaker 2: that into account, as does everyone else.
Speaker 1: President g used the call to say something which is
Speaker 1: becoming familiar from China, which is reminding the US that
Speaker 1: China and America forought side by side against fascism and
Speaker 1: militarism during World War Two. Presumably that's code for Japan.
Speaker 1: And of course Japan's new Prime Minister has said some
Speaker 1: very strong things about China's potential invasion of Taiwan that
Speaker 1: if that happens, Japan would consider itself obliged to have
Speaker 1: a military response. Is that part of the reason do
Speaker 1: you think greg for President she inviting President Trump for
Speaker 1: a state visit? Is this all about keeping Japan at bay?
Speaker 2: Well, China is very hostile to Japan. The mutual antipathy
Speaker 2: between China and Japan is absolutely visceral, and it extends
Speaker 2: far beyond the two governments. So these two nations really
Speaker 2: detest each other and they have a long history of
Speaker 2: military conflict. But of course the Chinese Communist Party didn't
Speaker 2: do much fighting alongside the Americans against imperial Japan. It
Speaker 2: was the Kuomintang, the people who went and set up Taiwan.
Speaker 2: They did all the fighting against Japan. The Communist Party
Speaker 2: largely sat in the sidelines, and when the Kuomintang was
Speaker 2: weakened by their efforts of fighting Japan, they then came
Speaker 2: in and drove the Kuomintang out and won the Chinese
Speaker 2: Civil War. So this piece of history is kind of
Speaker 2: bizarre for China to use that. And since World War Two,
Speaker 2: Japan has been an exemplary international citizen and an exemplary
Speaker 2: ally of the United States. Now, Japan would only ever
Speaker 2: take military action over Taiwan in alliance with the United States.
Speaker 2: So what the Japanese Prime Minister was doing, she was
Speaker 2: trying to bolster American to terrence by letting the Chinese
Speaker 2: know that not only could they face the Americans if
Speaker 2: they tried to invade Taiwan, but they could probably face
Speaker 2: America's allies too. Japan in particular, but also potentially South
Speaker 2: Korea and Australia and even the Philippines. Now that's an
Speaker 2: important strategic move that bolsters de terrence. But if America
Speaker 2: itself has lost interest in de terance, of course, Japan
Speaker 2: can't de China on its own, neither and Australia. But
Speaker 2: the reference to World War II history, you could imagine Trump,
Speaker 2: in one of his fits of historical revisionism, deciding that
Speaker 2: really Japan is the villain and China is the friend,
Speaker 2: just as he's sort of decided that Ukraine is the villain.
Speaker 2: You know, so Russia invades Ukraine without any provocation or
Speaker 2: justification whatsoever, slaughters hundreds of thousands of people and Annex's territory,
Speaker 2: and Trump blames Ukraine for starting the war. So the
Speaker 2: bizarre sort of historical excursion which Beijing is offering here,
Speaker 2: you know, we fought together against the invasion of other
Speaker 2: countries by imperial Japan. Therefore you should support our invasion
Speaker 2: of another country. It's the sort of crackpot formulation which
Speaker 2: Trump could possibly find useful. But on the other hand,
Speaker 2: it defies history. Really, and the people who set up
Speaker 2: tagwe were much better allies of the United States than
Speaker 2: the Chinese communists ever were. But you can see what
Speaker 2: she is doing. You can see that that might provide
Speaker 2: Trump with one of his crazy pretexts for saying, really,
Speaker 2: our ally is the villain here, not our enemy coming up?
Speaker 1: So what do reciprocal state visits for these two superstar
Speaker 1: show ponies look like? Both these guys love a bit
Speaker 1: of pomp and circumstance and a display of military hardware.
Speaker 1: They'll be swapping state visits in twenty twenty six. Does
Speaker 1: that concern you, Greg? Is it a bad look in
Speaker 1: this delicate time for President Trump to be in Beijing
Speaker 1: watching a parade of people go stepping up and down
Speaker 1: and vice versa.
Speaker 2: Look, it's not a bad thing to host the China
Speaker 2: as president, So people who wanted to tour China are not
Speaker 2: looking for an endlessly tense one minute to midnight sort
Speaker 2: of atmosphere. But the thing is, you want to have
Speaker 2: a dialogue with China, which is respectful. Nobody wants to
Speaker 2: bring President She to Washington and then beerate him and
Speaker 2: humiliate him and everything. An America never does that. Well,
Speaker 2: Trump does that sometimes, but America generally doesn't do that.
Speaker 2: But at the same time, you've got to keep a
Speaker 2: sense of strategic purpose about such a dialogue. Previous presidents
Speaker 2: have done this fine. You know, George W. Bush a
Speaker 2: host of China's visitors. There was no doubt that George W.
Speaker 2: Bush remained very formidable strategically. You know, he didn't give
Speaker 2: away the shop for the sake of a visit. But
Speaker 2: with Trump, you just don't know. I mean, he is
Speaker 2: so besotted by big, powerful leaders. And of course one
Speaker 2: of the very ugly things about the Trump presidency is
Speaker 2: the number of nations with which he is doing private
Speaker 2: business on his own behind for on behalf of his
Speaker 2: media empire, so to speak. And the Chinese and the
Speaker 2: Russians I would think are both likely to be offering
Speaker 2: him great deals. You know, Putin says we can do
Speaker 2: great business together. And Trump's appalling peace plan involved America
Speaker 2: taking profits from Ukraine's recovery. I mean, it's almost too
Speaker 2: grotesque to think about, really, And who knows what private
Speaker 2: Trump interests that play there. I mean, in previous negotiations,
Speaker 2: Arab nations have invested in the Trump family, bitcoin products
Speaker 2: and so forth. Although Trump says he's at arm length
Speaker 2: from his family's business, now that does seem to be
Speaker 2: part of how you deal with Trump. That doesn't guarantee
Speaker 2: you get what you want, but that's part of the equation.
Speaker 2: And the Chinese and the Russians they are past masters
Speaker 2: at buying people off with that kind of consideration. So
Speaker 2: that's pretty worrying as well. I mean, the lack of
Speaker 2: transparency with which everything is conducted under Trump, it gives
Speaker 2: rise to this kind of concern. So there's everything to
Speaker 2: be worried about in this romance between Trump and Chi Jinping.
Speaker 2: But having said all that, it's basically a sensible thing
Speaker 2: for the president of China and the President of the
Speaker 2: United States to talk. One of the problems with Trump
Speaker 2: is that he's either spitting better at you or he's
Speaker 2: all over you like a rash, like with the mayor
Speaker 2: of New York, the new mayor of New York. Before
Speaker 2: he was elected, he was a deranged communist. Now he's
Speaker 2: a very impressive man who's going to do a great
Speaker 2: job in New York. Well, it's no bad thing for
Speaker 2: the president to have a civil relationship with the Mayor
Speaker 2: of New York. But what value, then, can you place
Speaker 2: on Trump's words. I've always been confused by Trump loyalists
Speaker 2: by their ability to just jump on a tram going
Speaker 2: in one direction, jump off that, and then jump off
Speaker 2: a tram going in the opposite direction without missing a breath.
Speaker 2: You know, it's extraordinary. You've got to admire it in
Speaker 2: a way.
Speaker 1: Well, we know they all love winners. Great Sheridan, thank
Speaker 1: you very much, don't you. Claire Greek Sheridan is The
Speaker 1: Australian's Foreign editor. You can read all his analysis, plus
Speaker 1: our reporting from around the world, right now at the
Speaker 1: Australian dot com dot au