WEBVTT - Trump’s new bromance with Xi Jinping

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<v Speaker 1>From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Wednesday, November twenty six, twenty twenty five. Labour's likely

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<v Speaker 1>to take a light touch on regulating artificial intelligence when

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<v Speaker 1>it unveils a national AI plan next week. That's an

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<v Speaker 1>exclusive by The Australian's Ben Packham today. In a move

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<v Speaker 1>the government's already discussed with unions, the government will likely

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<v Speaker 1>avoid a system like the European Union, where there's a

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<v Speaker 1>sweeping and strict code to apply to AI models. Australia

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<v Speaker 1>system would likely be more case by case when issues arise.

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<v Speaker 1>That story is live now at the Australian dot Com

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<v Speaker 1>dot U. For one president to call another is a

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<v Speaker 1>big deal. When it's China's Shijinping Ringing Donald J. Trump,

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<v Speaker 1>both men who like to be the most powerful person

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<v Speaker 1>in any inversation, it sends the analysis into overdrive. So

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<v Speaker 1>what did the presidents discuss in their call and what

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<v Speaker 1>does it all mean? Greg Sheridan, is here you ready

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<v Speaker 1>to talk about China?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah? Absolutely, It's like a quiz.

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<v Speaker 1>Every day I bring you up and grill you about

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<v Speaker 1>something else.

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<v Speaker 2>Nice variety of subjects.

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<v Speaker 1>That's good to This call will be recorded. Greg Sheridan

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<v Speaker 1>is The Australian's Foreign editor. Greg Donald Trump and Shi

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<v Speaker 1>Jinping have spoken on the phone. Reports are emerging from Washington,

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<v Speaker 1>DC that it was President she who called Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>Does it matter who called who when leaders speak at

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<v Speaker 1>this level, not.

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<v Speaker 2>Really, No, No, it doesn't really matter. It's good in

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<v Speaker 2>a way that they're speaking. But the danger has always

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<v Speaker 2>been that Trump is prone to being flattered, and he

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<v Speaker 2>has a weakness for very strong leaders talking to him,

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<v Speaker 2>and both Hi Jinping and Vladimir Putin seem to be

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<v Speaker 2>pretty good at manipulating him pretty well. You know, in principle,

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<v Speaker 2>you've got to be happy that they speak. But the

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<v Speaker 2>other concerning thing about this, though, is there seems to

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<v Speaker 2>be a lack of transparency. Hi Jinping revealed that they

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<v Speaker 2>talked about Taiwan. Trump didn't mention that. I must say

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<v Speaker 2>that instinctively makes me a bit worried.

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<v Speaker 1>You don't think you just forgot.

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<v Speaker 2>No, I certainly don't think he just forgot. There's a

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<v Speaker 2>tremendous challenge in reporting Trump because he is really a

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<v Speaker 2>mixed grill. He does some good things, some things better

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<v Speaker 2>than other people have done in the office, but he

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<v Speaker 2>does some terrible things. Two. I mean, I think this

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<v Speaker 2>piece deal that he's trying to foist on Ukraine is

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<v Speaker 2>a shocking betrayal and very much against America's interests and

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<v Speaker 2>Ukraine's interests and the interests of democracy and so on. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>there's always been the worry that Trump might do a

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<v Speaker 2>similar deal over Taiwan with Shu Jinping. We're certainly not

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<v Speaker 2>at that point yet. But you know, one thing you

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<v Speaker 2>can't rely on from Trump at all is clarity or consistency.

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<v Speaker 1>They seemed to have discussed a number of topics in

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<v Speaker 1>this phone call. One of them was Ukraine. What's China's

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<v Speaker 1>skin in that particular game.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, China has been absolutely critical in enabling Russia to

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<v Speaker 2>prevail in the Ukraine conflict, and America has imposed no

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<v Speaker 2>significant cost on China for doing this. So in the

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<v Speaker 2>early days of American and European sanctions and Ukraine's much

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<v Speaker 2>fiercer than expected military resistance and effort, the Russian economy

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<v Speaker 2>was in a lot of trouble, a great deal of trouble. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>the thing that sustained it more than anything else was

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<v Speaker 2>its Chinese lifeline. It did huge trade with China huge

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<v Speaker 2>energy exports. It also imported a great deal of technology

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<v Speaker 2>from China, which at the very least was what they

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<v Speaker 2>call dual use technology, that is to say, technology which

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<v Speaker 2>is ostensibly for peaceful purposes but is easily converted for

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<v Speaker 2>military purposes. And China gave cover to Iran in North

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<v Speaker 2>Korea to provide military supplies to Russia. And China also

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<v Speaker 2>encouraged the Global South to continue trading with Russia. So

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<v Speaker 2>China has been Russia's best friend through all this conflict

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<v Speaker 2>and has paid really no price. And Russia now looks

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<v Speaker 2>as though it's winning, and China would be delighted at that.

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<v Speaker 2>And if in the end Trump wants to China to

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<v Speaker 2>give a benediction to his coercion of Ukraine into a

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<v Speaker 2>one sided peace agreement, that's not something that fills your

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<v Speaker 2>heart with joy either.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the issues that, as you say, Shijinping said

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<v Speaker 1>that they spoke about was Taiwan. The Chinese kind of

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<v Speaker 1>read out of this phone call said that President she

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<v Speaker 1>reiterated that Taiwan's return to China was an important component

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<v Speaker 1>of the post war international order, and said that mister

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<v Speaker 1>Trump affirmed that the US understands the importance of the

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<v Speaker 1>Taiwan issue to China. Those are platitudes, But what does

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<v Speaker 1>it mean beneath the surface? Do you think there greg

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<v Speaker 1>the fact that this issue was discussed at all in

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<v Speaker 1>a conversation, perhaps that was initiated by President she Well,

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<v Speaker 1>the truth is clear.

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<v Speaker 2>I often have to give you this answer. The truth

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<v Speaker 2>is I don't know, but neither does anybody else. Trump

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<v Speaker 2>is so waybile, so mercurial, so unpredictable. You know. They're

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<v Speaker 2>a very good book by his former national security advisor

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<v Speaker 2>John Bolton, in which he says that he expects Trump

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<v Speaker 2>to do a deal which sells Taiwan out, because Trump

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<v Speaker 2>in private kept saying, look, how tiny the Taiwan market

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<v Speaker 2>is compared to the China market. So Trump does see

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<v Speaker 2>things very much in me cantillist terms. Now, it's been

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<v Speaker 2>an object of American foreign policy forever, since nineteen forty nine,

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<v Speaker 2>that Taiwan should not be conquered by mainland China. It

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<v Speaker 2>will be a shocking thing in principle if this happened.

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<v Speaker 2>There are twenty three twenty four million people in Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 2>They live in a twenty four carot democracy, free elections,

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<v Speaker 2>free change of power, civil liberties. I think it's the

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<v Speaker 2>only Asian country where gay marriage is legal. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>it's just a twenty four carot liberal democratic society. It's

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<v Speaker 2>been ruled by Beijing four years since eighteen ninety five,

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<v Speaker 2>from nineteen forty five to ninee forty nine, who has

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<v Speaker 2>never been ruled by the Communist Party, And there is

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<v Speaker 2>no justification in international law or geostrategic consideration, anything else

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<v Speaker 2>for Beijing to invade Taiwan to take it over. If

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<v Speaker 2>Beijing does that and succeeds, I think that's pretty much

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<v Speaker 2>the end of the American security order in the Pacific,

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<v Speaker 2>diabolical consequences for Australia. It also gives China massive military

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<v Speaker 2>power projection capabilities. But what Trump is showing us is

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<v Speaker 2>that basically he's unlikely ever to fight for Taiwan. He's

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<v Speaker 2>unlikely ever to fight for anything. The sad acronym Taco

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<v Speaker 2>Trump always chickens out, it seems, is pretty true. So

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<v Speaker 2>people say, but look what he did with Iran. But

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<v Speaker 2>in fact, he did one bombing raid with Iran after

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<v Speaker 2>Israel had won the war. Now you know, I praised

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<v Speaker 2>him for it because it made it more likely that

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<v Speaker 2>Iran's nuclear program was severely damaged, but he took no

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<v Speaker 2>risk there Israel took all the risk. And Trump always

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<v Speaker 2>identifies with a winner. Trump identifies with the strong against

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<v Speaker 2>the weak. You know that, I think is why he's

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<v Speaker 2>instinctively sympathetic to Russia against Ukraine, and why he's instinctively

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<v Speaker 2>sympathetic to China against Taiwan. But having said all of that,

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<v Speaker 2>Trump is completely unpredictable, and sometimes when he comes up

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<v Speaker 2>with a bad position he changes that after a week

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<v Speaker 2>or two as well, because certainly there would be tremendous

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<v Speaker 2>hostility within his own party and with an American society

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<v Speaker 2>to conceding Taiwan to Beijing. So Trump will treat this

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<v Speaker 2>as an ongoing negotiation and an ongoing calculation. He will

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<v Speaker 2>be sniffing the wind and looking at what's politically viable.

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<v Speaker 2>He's weaker now than he was six months ago. His

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<v Speaker 2>magabase is starting to fracture a little bit. The Republicans

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<v Speaker 2>were savaged in recent off year elections. Now that is

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<v Speaker 2>a real witch's brew, and we just don't know what

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to issue in. What he doesn't do is

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<v Speaker 2>provide a very stable system of deterrence. The best way

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<v Speaker 2>to keep the peace in Taiwan is to convince the

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<v Speaker 2>Chinese that the cost of action would be prohibitive. He

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't do that, But the Chinaes have to take into

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<v Speaker 2>account the fact that America might react, even though Trump

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<v Speaker 2>gives every indication that they won't. Nonetheless, you know, anything

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<v Speaker 2>is possible with Trump, and the Chinese have to take

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<v Speaker 2>that into account, as does everyone else.

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<v Speaker 1>President g used the call to say something which is

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<v Speaker 1>becoming familiar from China, which is reminding the US that

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<v Speaker 1>China and America forought side by side against fascism and

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<v Speaker 1>militarism during World War Two. Presumably that's code for Japan.

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<v Speaker 1>And of course Japan's new Prime Minister has said some

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<v Speaker 1>very strong things about China's potential invasion of Taiwan that

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<v Speaker 1>if that happens, Japan would consider itself obliged to have

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<v Speaker 1>a military response. Is that part of the reason do

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<v Speaker 1>you think greg for President she inviting President Trump for

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<v Speaker 1>a state visit? Is this all about keeping Japan at bay?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, China is very hostile to Japan. The mutual antipathy

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<v Speaker 2>between China and Japan is absolutely visceral, and it extends

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<v Speaker 2>far beyond the two governments. So these two nations really

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<v Speaker 2>detest each other and they have a long history of

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<v Speaker 2>military conflict. But of course the Chinese Communist Party didn't

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<v Speaker 2>do much fighting alongside the Americans against imperial Japan. It

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<v Speaker 2>was the Kuomintang, the people who went and set up Taiwan.

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<v Speaker 2>They did all the fighting against Japan. The Communist Party

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<v Speaker 2>largely sat in the sidelines, and when the Kuomintang was

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<v Speaker 2>weakened by their efforts of fighting Japan, they then came

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<v Speaker 2>in and drove the Kuomintang out and won the Chinese

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<v Speaker 2>Civil War. So this piece of history is kind of

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<v Speaker 2>bizarre for China to use that. And since World War Two,

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<v Speaker 2>Japan has been an exemplary international citizen and an exemplary

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<v Speaker 2>ally of the United States. Now, Japan would only ever

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<v Speaker 2>take military action over Taiwan in alliance with the United States.

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<v Speaker 2>So what the Japanese Prime Minister was doing, she was

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<v Speaker 2>trying to bolster American to terrence by letting the Chinese

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<v Speaker 2>know that not only could they face the Americans if

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<v Speaker 2>they tried to invade Taiwan, but they could probably face

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<v Speaker 2>America's allies too. Japan in particular, but also potentially South

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<v Speaker 2>Korea and Australia and even the Philippines. Now that's an

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<v Speaker 2>important strategic move that bolsters de terrence. But if America

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<v Speaker 2>itself has lost interest in de terance, of course, Japan

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<v Speaker 2>can't de China on its own, neither and Australia. But

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<v Speaker 2>the reference to World War II history, you could imagine Trump,

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<v Speaker 2>in one of his fits of historical revisionism, deciding that

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<v Speaker 2>really Japan is the villain and China is the friend,

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<v Speaker 2>just as he's sort of decided that Ukraine is the villain.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, so Russia invades Ukraine without any provocation or

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<v Speaker 2>justification whatsoever, slaughters hundreds of thousands of people and Annex's territory,

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<v Speaker 2>and Trump blames Ukraine for starting the war. So the

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<v Speaker 2>bizarre sort of historical excursion which Beijing is offering here,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, we fought together against the invasion of other

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<v Speaker 2>countries by imperial Japan. Therefore you should support our invasion

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<v Speaker 2>of another country. It's the sort of crackpot formulation which

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<v Speaker 2>Trump could possibly find useful. But on the other hand,

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<v Speaker 2>it defies history. Really, and the people who set up

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<v Speaker 2>tagwe were much better allies of the United States than

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<v Speaker 2>the Chinese communists ever were. But you can see what

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<v Speaker 2>she is doing. You can see that that might provide

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<v Speaker 2>Trump with one of his crazy pretexts for saying, really,

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<v Speaker 2>our ally is the villain here, not our enemy coming up?

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<v Speaker 1>So what do reciprocal state visits for these two superstar

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<v Speaker 1>show ponies look like? Both these guys love a bit

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<v Speaker 1>of pomp and circumstance and a display of military hardware.

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<v Speaker 1>They'll be swapping state visits in twenty twenty six. Does

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<v Speaker 1>that concern you, Greg? Is it a bad look in

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<v Speaker 1>this delicate time for President Trump to be in Beijing

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<v Speaker 1>watching a parade of people go stepping up and down

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<v Speaker 1>and vice versa.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, it's not a bad thing to host the China

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<v Speaker 2>as president, So people who wanted to tour China are not

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<v Speaker 2>looking for an endlessly tense one minute to midnight sort

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<v Speaker 2>of atmosphere. But the thing is, you want to have

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<v Speaker 2>a dialogue with China, which is respectful. Nobody wants to

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<v Speaker 2>bring President She to Washington and then beerate him and

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<v Speaker 2>humiliate him and everything. An America never does that. Well,

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<v Speaker 2>Trump does that sometimes, but America generally doesn't do that.

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<v Speaker 2>But at the same time, you've got to keep a

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<v Speaker 2>sense of strategic purpose about such a dialogue. Previous presidents

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<v Speaker 2>have done this fine. You know, George W. Bush a

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<v Speaker 2>host of China's visitors. There was no doubt that George W.

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<v Speaker 2>Bush remained very formidable strategically. You know, he didn't give

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<v Speaker 2>away the shop for the sake of a visit. But

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<v Speaker 2>with Trump, you just don't know. I mean, he is

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<v Speaker 2>so besotted by big, powerful leaders. And of course one

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<v Speaker 2>of the very ugly things about the Trump presidency is

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<v Speaker 2>the number of nations with which he is doing private

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<v Speaker 2>business on his own behind for on behalf of his

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<v Speaker 2>media empire, so to speak. And the Chinese and the

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<v Speaker 2>Russians I would think are both likely to be offering

0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:11.280
<v Speaker 2>him great deals. You know, Putin says we can do

0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:16.760
<v Speaker 2>great business together. And Trump's appalling peace plan involved America

0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:21.680
<v Speaker 2>taking profits from Ukraine's recovery. I mean, it's almost too

0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:26.800
<v Speaker 2>grotesque to think about, really, And who knows what private

0:15:26.800 --> 0:15:31.120
<v Speaker 2>Trump interests that play there. I mean, in previous negotiations,

0:15:31.560 --> 0:15:35.560
<v Speaker 2>Arab nations have invested in the Trump family, bitcoin products

0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:38.080
<v Speaker 2>and so forth. Although Trump says he's at arm length

0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:41.120
<v Speaker 2>from his family's business, now that does seem to be

0:15:41.240 --> 0:15:44.440
<v Speaker 2>part of how you deal with Trump. That doesn't guarantee

0:15:44.480 --> 0:15:47.120
<v Speaker 2>you get what you want, but that's part of the equation.

0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:50.440
<v Speaker 2>And the Chinese and the Russians they are past masters

0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:53.920
<v Speaker 2>at buying people off with that kind of consideration. So

0:15:54.080 --> 0:15:56.120
<v Speaker 2>that's pretty worrying as well. I mean, the lack of

0:15:56.160 --> 0:16:00.600
<v Speaker 2>transparency with which everything is conducted under Trump, it gives

0:16:00.680 --> 0:16:04.000
<v Speaker 2>rise to this kind of concern. So there's everything to

0:16:04.000 --> 0:16:07.640
<v Speaker 2>be worried about in this romance between Trump and Chi Jinping.

0:16:08.280 --> 0:16:11.960
<v Speaker 2>But having said all that, it's basically a sensible thing

0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:14.520
<v Speaker 2>for the president of China and the President of the

0:16:14.600 --> 0:16:17.760
<v Speaker 2>United States to talk. One of the problems with Trump

0:16:17.880 --> 0:16:20.440
<v Speaker 2>is that he's either spitting better at you or he's

0:16:20.480 --> 0:16:22.720
<v Speaker 2>all over you like a rash, like with the mayor

0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:24.920
<v Speaker 2>of New York, the new mayor of New York. Before

0:16:24.920 --> 0:16:28.920
<v Speaker 2>he was elected, he was a deranged communist. Now he's

0:16:29.080 --> 0:16:31.960
<v Speaker 2>a very impressive man who's going to do a great

0:16:32.080 --> 0:16:34.880
<v Speaker 2>job in New York. Well, it's no bad thing for

0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:37.000
<v Speaker 2>the president to have a civil relationship with the Mayor

0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:40.320
<v Speaker 2>of New York. But what value, then, can you place

0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:44.240
<v Speaker 2>on Trump's words. I've always been confused by Trump loyalists

0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:47.520
<v Speaker 2>by their ability to just jump on a tram going

0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:49.520
<v Speaker 2>in one direction, jump off that, and then jump off

0:16:49.520 --> 0:16:53.200
<v Speaker 2>a tram going in the opposite direction without missing a breath.

0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:55.680
<v Speaker 2>You know, it's extraordinary. You've got to admire it in

0:16:55.720 --> 0:16:56.000
<v Speaker 2>a way.

0:16:56.160 --> 0:16:58.640
<v Speaker 1>Well, we know they all love winners. Great Sheridan, thank

0:16:58.640 --> 0:17:09.600
<v Speaker 1>you very much, don't you. Claire Greek Sheridan is The

0:17:09.640 --> 0:17:13.719
<v Speaker 1>Australian's Foreign editor. You can read all his analysis, plus

0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:16.879
<v Speaker 1>our reporting from around the world, right now at the

0:17:16.960 --> 0:17:18.919
<v Speaker 1>Australian dot com dot au