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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Australia has emerged as a loser after the US Supreme

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Speaker 1: Court's decision to knock back Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariffs

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Speaker 1: triggered the imposition of a global fifteen percent levy, which

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Speaker 1: is higher than what we pay now. Strong earnings from

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Speaker 1: Oussie companies pushed the ASX to record Territory and Prime

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Speaker 1: Minister Anthony Alberanezi says his government will be focusing on

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Speaker 1: cost of living pressures and the economy and the run

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Speaker 1: up to the May budget, plus which Australians feel best

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Speaker 1: about life and the end of the Winter Olympics. It

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Speaker 1: is Monday, the twenty third of February twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning Michael.

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Speaker 1: Massive weekend of news and a massive start to the week, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning. Donald Trump has introduced a

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Speaker 1: fifteen percent global tariff for all good entering the United

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Speaker 1: States after the Supreme Court ruled that the Trump Administration's

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Speaker 1: tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unlawful.

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Speaker 1: So the new tariffs now are in place for one

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty days that is allowed, but will need

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Speaker 1: congressional support to go any longer than that one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty days. Trump has promised to find new ways

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Speaker 1: of levying duties on goods coming into the country. Just

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Speaker 1: watching this unfold over the last couple of days, who

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Speaker 1: was clearly very angry about the six to three decision

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Speaker 1: from the court and say said that the judges who

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Speaker 1: voted against the tariffs should be ashamed of themselves. What

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Speaker 1: do you make of all of this? It's been great theater,

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Speaker 1: gotta say, Yeah, impactful theater as well because the flow

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Speaker 1: on effects are huge.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, So what to make of it all?

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Speaker 3: Shall we say? Global trade isn't a place of uncertainty?

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Speaker 3: Mike thinks fair. Let's take it bit by a bit.

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Speaker 3: The trade deals announced since Liberation Day, those bi lateral

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Speaker 3: trade deals probably stay in place. Refunds of tariffs paid

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Speaker 3: to date because they've been illegal, probably around one seventy

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Speaker 3: one eighty billion US dollars. I think that refund issue

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Speaker 3: will be a bit messy. Trump said his administration will

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Speaker 3: undertake trade views on specific countries and sectors. That, of course,

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Speaker 3: could cause an outbreak of friction between the US and

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Speaker 3: its training partners, because it becomes much more personal. So

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Speaker 3: if Trump and the Trump administration starts dealing with Australia

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Speaker 3: and says, hey, we think you guys are doing the

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Speaker 3: wrong thing the right thing, that's much more personal than

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Speaker 3: just across the board taxes, which is what those initial

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Speaker 3: taxes were, or those initial tariffs were.

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Speaker 2: That'll also take time.

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Speaker 3: The reason he can do this new ten percent tariff

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Speaker 3: is it's under something called the Trade Act of nineteen

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Speaker 3: seventy four. Basically, when there's an issue with international payments,

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Speaker 3: he can, as president introduce the fifteen percent across the

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Speaker 3: board maximum tariff rate for one hundred and fifty days.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, because he started out saying when the decision was

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Speaker 1: first announced, he said ten percent. Then the up to

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Speaker 1: to day later to fifteen percent just seems to have

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Speaker 1: got angrier as the weekend went on. The other thing

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Speaker 1: to consider it here, Sean, is the fact that the

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Speaker 1: world has changed since Liberation Day last April. And you've

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Speaker 1: talked about this a lot, about the fact that it

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Speaker 1: has kind of changed the world order, right, and we've

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Speaker 1: got the bigger economies, notably the European Union, am much

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Speaker 1: more likely to stand up against Trump going forward.

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Speaker 3: Yes, last month, when Trump again suggested the US takeover

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Speaker 3: to Greenland rather than trying to pease him, Europe threatened retaliation.

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Speaker 3: I'm trying to think of that phrase. It was a

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Speaker 3: great berzooka tariff's or something wasn't.

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Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, it was the bazooka tariffs.

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Speaker 2: You're right, Yes, that's it. Suddenly Trump back down.

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Speaker 3: Haven't heard about Greenland ever since, right, So clearly Europe

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Speaker 3: is up for a fight, more so than it was

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Speaker 3: twelve months ago.

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Speaker 2: The loss of revenue from the tariff.

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Speaker 3: Which US consumers had largely born, will push the US

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Speaker 3: budget further in to deficit. Remember the one big beautiful

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Speaker 3: bill I think was July last year, tax carts, defense spending,

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Speaker 3: all sorts of things. Tariffs were supposed to fund that

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Speaker 3: one big beautiful bill that's gone through, But there are

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Speaker 3: no tariffs now to fund it. That's the real problem

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Speaker 3: as well. The other thing that the ruling does, and

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Speaker 3: I think in many analysts said this over the last

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Speaker 3: couple of days, it shows that the Supreme Court will

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Speaker 3: check some of Trump's powers. Now, many think that's a

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Speaker 3: good thing. Maybe others don't think it's a good thing.

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Speaker 3: But it doesn't mean he is unfettered powers. And the

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Speaker 3: fact that the three it was a six to three decision,

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Speaker 3: two of the six who went against Trump's tariffs were

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Speaker 3: appointed by Donald Trump. That's who he was particularly upset with,

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Speaker 3: but does suggest that the checks and balances under the

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Speaker 3: US Constitution is working somewhat.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Sean, you mentioned something a moment ago which I

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Speaker 1: think has missed a lot in the tariff discussion, and

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Speaker 1: that is the fact that it is really it is

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Speaker 1: the US consumers who cop the worst of this, and

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Speaker 1: that does feel like it does get missed in a

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Speaker 1: lot of the debate that it's the other countries around

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Speaker 1: the world that are paying this, But no, it's actually

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Speaker 1: increasing prices for US citizens.

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Speaker 3: So research is eighty to ninety percent of the tariffs

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Speaker 3: have been paid by US consumers. Donald Trump and it

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Speaker 3: does want to talk about that, but that's the reality.

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Speaker 3: And what this has been now is a transfer of

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Speaker 3: one hundred and seventy hundred and eighty billion dollars from

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Speaker 3: US consumers to big corporates from overseas.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Now, the universal fifteen percent tariff is it's bad

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Speaker 1: for Australia because we previously only had a ten percent

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Speaker 1: tariff imposed, right, same for the UK. Yesterday, Trade Minister

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Speaker 1: Don Farrell blasted the global tariff as unjustified.

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Speaker 3: Yes, I mean, you know, our government believes in fair

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Speaker 3: and free trade and the oppositions the same. I've got

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Speaker 3: to say in our case, the stuff we sell to

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Speaker 3: the US has actually we're selling more than before the tariffs,

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Speaker 3: so the two big ones meet and meat prices have soared,

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Speaker 3: and gold and we know exactly what's happened with cold prices,

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Speaker 3: so the actual revenue we're earning from the US is

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Speaker 3: far greater than before the tariffs. Now fair enough. I

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Speaker 3: don't think fifteen per cent tariff's very fair. I didn't

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Speaker 3: think a ten percent tariff was very fair. But I

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Speaker 3: must say it hasn't actually had much of an impact

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Speaker 3: on us yet. Farrell is due to head to California

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Speaker 3: this week, likely discussed to discuss the latest developments with officials.

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Speaker 1: Okay, and if we just bring the story back to

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Speaker 1: financial markets and to the economy, Sean, what does it mean.

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Speaker 1: I suppose uncertainty would be my guess, and we know

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Speaker 1: that uncertainty is of course bad for markets, that's right.

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Speaker 3: I mean the many unknowns at the moment. The higher

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Speaker 3: tariffs on Australia should hurt equities, I say should Who knows,

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Speaker 3: iz A dollar which hit almost seventy one and a

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Speaker 3: half US since last week, will probably for back because

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Speaker 3: relative interest rates in the US are likely to rise

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Speaker 3: as a result of this tariff decision because of the

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Speaker 3: federal budget expanding. That could entice global investors, could help

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Speaker 3: the greenback, could push the Aussie down, best guess though.

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Speaker 1: Okay, now all of this sean is going on in

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Speaker 1: the middle of reporting season, which is busy enough time

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Speaker 1: and there is so much news anyway. About sixty percent

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Speaker 1: of companies have reported their December half profits and it's

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Speaker 1: been pretty good overall, with mining profits up by about

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Speaker 1: thirty three percent, banks up around eight percent, energy companies

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Speaker 1: down eighteen percent, and the rest up around four percent.

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Speaker 1: That's helped push the local share market close to record levels,

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Speaker 1: even though there are plenty of reasons right why investors

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Speaker 1: should be cautious.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's interesting because I mean there's a chance of

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Speaker 3: stronger of higher interest rates this year. We'll find out

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Speaker 3: more about that on Wednesday when the genuine fac figure

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Speaker 3: is released, but you know that should probably weigh on equities,

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Speaker 3: you would think. Also, our market is expensive. If we

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Speaker 3: go into financial terms, the local markets trading on a

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Speaker 3: forward price to earnings ratio of twenty times compared to

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Speaker 3: the long run average of fifteen times. That's based on

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Speaker 3: AMP numbers. In short, that means it's about thirty three

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Speaker 3: percent more expensive than.

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Speaker 2: The long run average.

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Speaker 3: Not much of a risk premium for equities over bonds.

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Speaker 3: That means bonds might be better value. Still, plenty of

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Speaker 3: geopolitical uncertainty around the place. A US strike on Iran

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Speaker 3: could hit equity markets hard. So we are trading near

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Speaker 3: this record level, yet plenty of reasons to be cautious.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and the earnings themselves, sean show that consumers are

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Speaker 1: still spending, business wants to invest, so that does all

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Speaker 1: go well for growth. The market finished up on Friday

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Speaker 1: where it Yeah, it.

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Speaker 3: Was actually flat, really apps very slightly about two percent

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Speaker 3: for the week. Couple of companies to report on Friday,

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Speaker 3: worth A mentioned Guzmani Gomez higher sales, higher earnings, below expectations,

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Speaker 3: share price down to fourteen percent. Ouch QBA profits up

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Speaker 3: twenty one percent, higher than expected, share price up seven percent.

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Speaker 3: It's a fickle market, apparently about a third of the

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Speaker 3: companies that have reported have had major share price movements

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Speaker 3: within hours of them reporting.

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Speaker 2: That is a volatile market.

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Speaker 1: Volatility absolutely the key to all of that. Sean massive

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Speaker 1: start to the day back in a moment with the

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Speaker 1: rest of the day's business news.

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Speaker 2: Sewn.

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Speaker 1: Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi says tackling cost of living pressures

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Speaker 1: remains front and center for his government, alongside a focus

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Speaker 1: on national security.

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Speaker 3: Speaking of Sky News yesterday, the PM said economic reform

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Speaker 3: was top of the agenda and the government's focus was

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Speaker 3: on getting inflation lower. He avoided a question about scaling

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Speaker 3: back capital gains tax concessions for property investors and said

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Speaker 3: he said the government will hand down a budget in

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Speaker 3: May that deals with housing. Now, a three day inquiry

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Speaker 3: into that capital gains tax concession will begin today. Hearings

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Speaker 3: are set to include people like Bill Keltic, the former

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Speaker 3: ACTU secretary, former MBA governor Bernie Fraser, fundamentager, Jeff Wilson,

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Speaker 3: former Treasury Secretary Ken Henry asked about One nation surge

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Speaker 3: in the polls yesterday at the same chat with Sky

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Speaker 3: News Albanezy he basically teed off. He said political movement

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Speaker 3: that focuses on dividing Australians, pitting them against each other.

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Speaker 3: He said they amplify grievances rather than come up with solutions.

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Speaker 1: Now, Great Britain has for the first time ever docked

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Speaker 1: a nuclear powered submarine at Western Australia's hmau Sterling, which

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Speaker 1: marks a major step in Australia's preparation for its own

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Speaker 1: fleet of nuclear powered subs.

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Speaker 2: Yeah it does.

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Speaker 3: Under Aucust, the UK and US have agreed to let

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Speaker 3: Australian Defense Force personnel carry out maintenance on their nuclear subs.

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Speaker 3: ADF crews will work alongside British and American teams to

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Speaker 3: ensure HMS Anston, which is the vessel, which is a

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Speaker 3: four year old Astute class, and make sure it's fit

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Speaker 3: for service before it's allowed back to the Indian nation.

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Speaker 3: According to Thisustralian, it's also aimed at helping Australians get

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Speaker 3: used to British designs before construction begins on the new

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Speaker 3: Orch sub in Adelaide later in the decade.

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Speaker 1: Auction season is ramping up sean with more than twenty

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Speaker 1: eight hundred capital city dwellings going under the hammer over

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Speaker 1: the past week. The weighted average preliminary auction clearance rate

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Speaker 1: across the combined capitals has been fading a little as

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Speaker 1: the auction volume rises, reducing from seventy three point seven

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Speaker 1: percent two weeks ago to seventy point seven percent last

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Speaker 1: week and sixty eight percent over the most recent week.

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Speaker 1: That feels like a bit of a trend there, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Despite the easing, though, clearance rates are still holding above

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Speaker 1: the lows of mid December, which that was pretty bad

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Speaker 1: at plumb the low sixty percent range.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, but I mean you're alluding to it.

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Speaker 3: It does feel like the spark has left the market

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Speaker 3: just to touch just a wee bit. Molburn remains the

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Speaker 3: auction volume epicenter according to Totality. All these numbers are

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Speaker 3: from our friends at totality Is preliminary clearance rate was

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Speaker 3: sixty eight point one percent, down from almost seventy one

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Speaker 3: percent the week previous. M Sidney went from about seventy

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Speaker 3: percent to sixty seven percent. Undoubtedly, the possibility of higher

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Speaker 3: interest rates and the financial market reckoned. There's about a

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Speaker 3: three and four chance of a hike in May. Undoubtedly

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Speaker 3: that's weighing on buyer's minds.

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Speaker 1: Now each quarter. I mentioned this at the top of

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Speaker 1: the show. Each quarter NAB puts out a National well

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Speaker 1: Being Index and it looks at how Australians feel about

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Speaker 1: their lives in response to changing economic and social conditions

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Speaker 1: and personal finances, all these kind of things. They put

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Speaker 1: it all together and after rising through much of last year,

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Speaker 1: the index has actually dropped and it's really younger ossies

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Speaker 1: who are more stressed.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so the gap between how well being of older

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Speaker 3: and younger, and richer and poorer has widened. So older

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Speaker 3: Australians on average reports significantly higher well being, lower financial stress,

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Speaker 3: greatest satisfaction across lifestyle, financial and emotional measures. By contrast,

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Speaker 3: younger adults face the highest stress, frequent different with essential

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Speaker 3: expenses pronounced, inability to raise emergency funds. Migrants, especially those

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Speaker 3: who have arrived in the past five years, remain considerably

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Speaker 3: more optimistic about the future than Australian born individuals, which

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Speaker 3: is interesting. While overall well being has softened, Australians continuing

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Speaker 3: to demonstrate resilience and adaptability. Social cohesion is also really strong.

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Speaker 3: So parental grand parental financial support for adult children is rising.

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Speaker 3: Darn't I know about it. It's now present in one

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Speaker 3: in seven households. What if you have seven adult children

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Speaker 3: in your household. This is a hypothetical, right, are hypothetical

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Speaker 3: and all are supported somewhat. Yeah, is that seven in

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Speaker 3: one household as opposed to one in seven households.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 1: That is a brutal reality for some of us. Sean

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Speaker 1: that is, it is quite interesting, actually, isn't it that

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Speaker 1: the older Australians are feeling so much more comfortable and

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Speaker 1: in wonder just how much of that is really down

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Speaker 1: to our superannuation system and the fact that over the

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Speaker 1: last couple of years we have had some good years

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Speaker 1: for super, some solid kind of returns over the last

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Speaker 1: few years, and you might be looking at your balance

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Speaker 1: and going, actually, I've fee a pretty good feeling, okay.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news now Sewan, the Winter Olympics comes

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Speaker 1: to an end. The event in Northern Italy is look

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you were to rank them right, of

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Speaker 1: all the Winter Games, this is considered one of the

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Speaker 1: greats and it was headlined by Norway's Johannes Klabo, who,

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Speaker 1: after winning the cross country fifty kilometer men's mass start

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Speaker 1: over the weekend, set a record for golds in one

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Speaker 1: game six and a career of eleven. That is a

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Speaker 1: that's quite the.

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Speaker 3: Hall we got addicted to Clavo, did you Yeah? I

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Speaker 3: mean Norwegian Norway end up with any gold medals, a

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Speaker 3: record for any country. He he's not that Michael Jordan,

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Speaker 3: the Don Bradman of cross country skiing. And in that

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Speaker 3: fifty k raise he was off and the three Norwegians

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Speaker 3: took off.

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Speaker 2: One of them fell back.

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Speaker 3: There's a young guy up and comer in the last

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Speaker 3: kilometer of fifty kilometers right, so right at the end,

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Speaker 3: this cleyboy just said, well, thanks for trying, I'll take

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Speaker 3: back to reserve grades and just went It was fantastic.

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Speaker 3: Some really historic moments. Canada's men beating Great Britain nine

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Speaker 3: six and the curling final. I mean, this is the

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Speaker 3: team that was accused of cheating in the game against

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Speaker 3: Sweden that one and for mine, curling came of age.

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Speaker 3: That has to be one of that makes lawn bowls

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Speaker 3: look excited.

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Speaker 1: Tell you you and I were talking last week about

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Speaker 1: the fact that in the States, in the US, there

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Speaker 1: are a bunch of curling clubs that are now trying

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Speaker 1: to use the Olympics yes to set themselves up themselves

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Speaker 1: the new pickleball. Basically, I think everyone's going to come.

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Speaker 1: It might be a bit of a.

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Speaker 2: Stretch, I suspect.

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Speaker 3: So Australia got three gold medals to silver one bronze,

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Speaker 3: making it our most successful Winter Olympics ever. The closing

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Speaker 3: ceremony starts shortly. Two of our medal winners, Daniel Scott

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Speaker 3: and Kober Woods are carrying the flag. As I mentioned,

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Speaker 3: Norways set the record for most gold medals. About thirty

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Speaker 3: five hundred athletes competed, just under half being females. Probably

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Speaker 3: won't think about, you know, downhill skiing, lose any of

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Speaker 3: those things around four years. But wow, I've enjoyed the

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Speaker 3: last couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: There have been some great moments, all right. Up next

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Speaker 1: is Fear and Greed Q and A with Stephen Coculas,

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Speaker 1: our resident economists Big week this week talking about the

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Speaker 1: week ahead for the economy, and of course you mentioned

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Speaker 1: before Shawn, the January inflation figures and also capex figures,

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Speaker 1: a bunch of other things that all kind of give

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Speaker 1: an indication where we are heading. It is up next

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Speaker 1: in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform

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Speaker 1: or at Fearangreed dot com dodau, which is where you

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Speaker 1: also sign up for the free daily newsletter. Thank you, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Monday, the twenty third of February twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: Make sure you're following the podcast and join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and that was Fear and Greed. Have a great day.