1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,680 Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gatigel 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:09,559 Speaker 1: people of the Uran Nation. Hello and welcome to the 3 00:00:09,600 --> 00:00:12,959 Speaker 1: Real Story. Joe Hildebrand with you, and my god, what 4 00:00:13,160 --> 00:00:17,080 Speaker 1: a terrifying and seismic week it has been. We're going 5 00:00:17,120 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 1: to talk about how the death of Charlie Kirk has 6 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:24,959 Speaker 1: exposed the lie at the heart of identity politics, but 7 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 1: also how it could spark a civil war in the West, 8 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:32,880 Speaker 1: which is the last thing that anybody wants, except, of course, 9 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:35,400 Speaker 1: the extreme left and the extreme right, and they're the 10 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:38,240 Speaker 1: ones fueling it. Also, we're going to be talking about 11 00:00:38,280 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 1: the Liberals. Just every time they hit rock bottom, they 12 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,640 Speaker 1: seem to find another layer just below it. They have 13 00:00:44,760 --> 00:00:47,360 Speaker 1: plunged to record lows in the polls, just when you 14 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:50,159 Speaker 1: thought it couldn't get any worse. Can they actually recover 15 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,920 Speaker 1: from this? I'll explain how well, kind of maybe not. 16 00:00:54,400 --> 00:01:00,600 Speaker 1: They absolutely screwed. Also, Donald Trump and Albanezy meeting is 17 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:02,720 Speaker 1: on again. Yes, Albow and. 18 00:01:02,680 --> 00:01:05,480 Speaker 2: The Trumpster are friends again. They've been chatting on the phone. 19 00:01:05,720 --> 00:01:08,000 Speaker 2: They're going to meet up in person. So what does 20 00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 2: this mean? Have we saved Ucus and how much did 21 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:12,840 Speaker 2: we have to pay to save it? I'll be speaking 22 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 2: to one of the. 23 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:17,520 Speaker 1: Top brains on the Australia US Alliance, Stephen Loosely later 24 00:01:17,560 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 1: on all that more coming up now. When I was 25 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:32,280 Speaker 1: a workaday reporter to Daily Telegraph, me and my friends 26 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:34,839 Speaker 1: I used to have a game we used to play 27 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 1: called Blame the Left, Blame the Right, and we'd rock 28 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:41,199 Speaker 1: up in the morning, usually pretty late in the morning 29 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:45,679 Speaker 1: back in those days, and whatever had pissed one of 30 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 1: us off, you know, would be vented. You know, whether 31 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:51,680 Speaker 1: the trains were late, or whether you know they couldn't 32 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:55,560 Speaker 1: get a seat, or whether they had to wait for 33 00:01:55,600 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 1: their coffee, or just whatever annoyance, something always annoys you 34 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 1: when you've just rolled out of bed and you're walking 35 00:02:02,000 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 1: to work and you're possibly a little bit hungover. And 36 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 1: then the rest of us would have to find a 37 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:12,640 Speaker 1: way to blame that completely apolitical nothing incident on either 38 00:02:12,680 --> 00:02:15,440 Speaker 1: the left or the right. And spoiler alert, we could 39 00:02:15,480 --> 00:02:18,560 Speaker 1: always do it. We could always find a way to 40 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 1: blame the train running late on the left, or the 41 00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:25,320 Speaker 1: fact that you know there's not a public toilet when 42 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 1: you need one on the right. It doesn't matter. You 43 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:30,639 Speaker 1: can always find a way to blame the other side. 44 00:02:31,560 --> 00:02:35,359 Speaker 1: And that is precisely what both sides have been doing 45 00:02:35,800 --> 00:02:40,480 Speaker 1: in the wake of the Charlie Kirk assassination. We do 46 00:02:40,639 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 1: know that Charlie Kirk, the conservative activist, commentator, podcaster, advisor 47 00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:51,640 Speaker 1: to Donald Trump, campaigner for Donald Trump, the founder of 48 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:58,200 Speaker 1: Turning Point USA, a conservative Christian youth movement. He has 49 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: been I think it is uncontent to say shot dead 50 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:06,440 Speaker 1: and shot dead in a debate. He was having a 51 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 1: series of debates where he invites people who disagree with 52 00:03:10,520 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 1: him to prove him wrong at Utah Valley University. But 53 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:18,840 Speaker 1: what I'm more interested in is the fallout from this, 54 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:22,119 Speaker 1: because this has the potential to make what has been 55 00:03:22,280 --> 00:03:26,560 Speaker 1: a really ugly first quarter of the twenty first century 56 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:31,600 Speaker 1: in politics and made it even uglier. I would say 57 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 1: it has potential to be even more disruptive than the 58 00:03:34,320 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: January sixth riots, the Black Lives Matter riots, And you 59 00:03:39,160 --> 00:03:42,560 Speaker 1: can probably get a flavor of what is potentially on 60 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: the horizon if you take January six and Black Lives 61 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,480 Speaker 1: Matter and New Times them by each other. That is 62 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 1: the potential I think for the chaos and unrest that 63 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:55,440 Speaker 1: could come unless the center of politics rises up. Because 64 00:03:56,000 --> 00:04:00,240 Speaker 1: what we are seeing with Charlie Kirk is not sila 65 00:04:00,640 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: left wing hate against conservatives in America, although it certainly 66 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,160 Speaker 1: is that. But it is not just that. It is 67 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 1: also the reaction of the right in an equally violent 68 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:22,159 Speaker 1: and aggressive and life and death kind of way. And again, 69 00:04:23,320 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 1: this is the last thing we need in our politics 70 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:31,480 Speaker 1: in the twenty first century. It's already bad enough. And 71 00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,839 Speaker 1: let's just go to first of all the hypocrisy of 72 00:04:35,200 --> 00:04:38,719 Speaker 1: the left and all this. In fact, we'll go first 73 00:04:38,839 --> 00:04:42,000 Speaker 1: to one of the key tenets of the left that 74 00:04:42,000 --> 00:04:44,159 Speaker 1: has pissed off so many people in America and the 75 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 1: West generally, which is this kind of checklist of oppression, 76 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 1: this sort of catalog of woe, if you like, a 77 00:04:52,800 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: sort of pecking order of who is the most oppressed 78 00:04:56,960 --> 00:05:00,719 Speaker 1: or privileged in society based on things like their race, 79 00:05:01,760 --> 00:05:07,240 Speaker 1: their sex, their sexual orientation. And this is something obviously 80 00:05:07,279 --> 00:05:11,240 Speaker 1: that should have no place in any civilized society. But 81 00:05:11,279 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 1: of course the left has picked up that kind of 82 00:05:13,839 --> 00:05:16,479 Speaker 1: thinking and sort of inverted it and sort of created 83 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 1: a monstrous alternative version where of course, if someone is straight, 84 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:28,800 Speaker 1: white male, then they are necessarily the oppressor. They are 85 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:33,840 Speaker 1: prone to violence, they are prone to evil, superior misogynistic, 86 00:05:34,279 --> 00:05:41,040 Speaker 1: patriarchal thoughts, and this is where they immediately got brutally 87 00:05:41,120 --> 00:05:44,479 Speaker 1: undone in the immediate aftermath of Charlie Kirk's death. Now, 88 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:46,280 Speaker 1: at first we had no idea. For the first day 89 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 1: or two the killer, alleged killer now was on the run, 90 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 1: no one had any idea who he was. And then 91 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:59,000 Speaker 1: when the alleged killer was made to or encouraged to 92 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:02,560 Speaker 1: hand themselves in by their father and a pastor and 93 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:06,480 Speaker 1: a Christian minister, it appeared that he came from a 94 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:10,800 Speaker 1: Republican background. This is a Utah course, so a Mormon 95 00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 1: conservative family background. Parents were registered Republicans. There were pictures 96 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: of him learning to shoot, carrying a gun, and suddenly 97 00:06:22,400 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 1: it just almost like wildfire, the left start jumping up 98 00:06:26,520 --> 00:06:28,719 Speaker 1: and down, saying, see, it wasn't one of us that 99 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:31,080 Speaker 1: killed Charlie Kirk, was one of you. It was a 100 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 1: straight white maga loving male. And again these people jumping 101 00:06:36,320 --> 00:06:39,839 Speaker 1: to these conclusions just from the pictures themselves, but also 102 00:06:40,000 --> 00:06:43,159 Speaker 1: just making stuff up. But all of this pointed to 103 00:06:43,160 --> 00:06:47,159 Speaker 1: the fact that this was a straight white maga male 104 00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:51,799 Speaker 1: and that this is why Charlie Kirk got shot. Because 105 00:06:51,800 --> 00:06:55,080 Speaker 1: we know that that's what straight white mega males do. 106 00:06:55,240 --> 00:06:58,000 Speaker 1: They shoot people. They kill people because they're inherently violent 107 00:06:58,040 --> 00:07:04,599 Speaker 1: and oppressive. And then it turned out that appearances weren't 108 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:08,599 Speaker 1: quite what they seemed. That's the funny thing about appearances, 109 00:07:08,640 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 1: isn't it. So it turns out that, in fact, while 110 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 1: this guy may have come from a conservative Republican family, 111 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:22,720 Speaker 1: the family that told him to hand himself in, in 112 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 1: fact he had been according to the governor of Utah, 113 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 1: who was quoting investigators who interrogated him, in fact, he 114 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:35,480 Speaker 1: had been indoctrinated by far left ideology. This according to 115 00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 1: the governor of the state where it happened, the guy 116 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 1: who's in charge of the law enforcement, who's in charge 117 00:07:41,040 --> 00:07:46,480 Speaker 1: with catching this guy and prosecuting him. So, without anything 118 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 1: better to go on than that, I'd say perhaps that 119 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,640 Speaker 1: should be taken as the best evidence we've got so far. 120 00:07:52,000 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 1: But here's where things get even more complicated, because it 121 00:07:56,680 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 1: looks like our guy wasn't straight either. In fact, he 122 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:05,520 Speaker 1: was in a relationship with a biological male who was 123 00:08:05,560 --> 00:08:09,880 Speaker 1: in the process of transitioning to female. We don't have 124 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:11,840 Speaker 1: to get into it here, but it's pretty much i 125 00:08:11,880 --> 00:08:19,040 Speaker 1: think uncontested at this point that this person, the suspected shooter, 126 00:08:19,640 --> 00:08:24,880 Speaker 1: was in a relationship with a biological male, an intimate 127 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 1: relationship with a biological male who was in the process 128 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:31,560 Speaker 1: of transitioning to female, and this partner he was with 129 00:08:31,800 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 1: is completely cooperating with authorities. So the irony here is 130 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:43,720 Speaker 1: that Charlie Kirk was shot dead in the middle of 131 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:48,760 Speaker 1: a debate with someone over whether or not trans people 132 00:08:48,920 --> 00:08:53,400 Speaker 1: were more likely to commit shootings or mass shootings. And 133 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,679 Speaker 1: this is something that's been picked up and run with 134 00:08:55,760 --> 00:09:00,360 Speaker 1: by the right. Now. There is no evidence whatsoe, however, 135 00:09:00,720 --> 00:09:04,120 Speaker 1: that trans people are more likely to commit mass shootings. 136 00:09:04,880 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: In fact, Planet America the TV show calculated that if 137 00:09:09,480 --> 00:09:13,360 Speaker 1: you compare the proportion of mass shootings committed by trans 138 00:09:13,440 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 1: people with the proportion of trans people in the community, 139 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:19,880 Speaker 1: so about one percent of people are estimated to be 140 00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:25,120 Speaker 1: trans and less than zero point two percent of shootings 141 00:09:25,160 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 1: were committed by trans people. In fact, transpeople are five 142 00:09:28,640 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 1: times less likely to be mass shooters. And of course, 143 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: the person who allegedly shot Charlie Kirk himself wasn't trans. 144 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:41,040 Speaker 1: He was just in a relationship with a male transitioning 145 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 1: to female person. But of course all of that then 146 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:52,800 Speaker 1: fuels the perception that the trans community is inherently violent, 147 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: and so of course this person alleged shooter, if they 148 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 1: are indeed the person who pulled the trigger, has not 149 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:04,960 Speaker 1: struck a blow for the trans community. They've struck a 150 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:09,560 Speaker 1: blow against the trans community. They've confirmed in the minds 151 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 1: of the right, at least what the right is trying 152 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:17,360 Speaker 1: to say. But again by trying to place a whole 153 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 1: bunch of factors like your racial makeup, your sex, whatever 154 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 1: it may be, the right's just playing the left game. 155 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 1: And so this is just absolutely torn open, pulled back 156 00:10:32,840 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 1: the rug and expose the pure idiocy, the insanity that 157 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,800 Speaker 1: is in identity politics that you can project what someone's 158 00:10:40,840 --> 00:10:46,720 Speaker 1: attitude is or their actions based on their racial or orientation. 159 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:58,719 Speaker 1: This is insane and it has to stop. The other 160 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:02,720 Speaker 1: big story of the week was the almost total collapse 161 00:11:03,400 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: of the Liberal Party under Susan Lee. They have plunged 162 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:14,120 Speaker 1: to a record literally the lowest since records began. That's 163 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:16,480 Speaker 1: why they call it a record low. I guess a 164 00:11:16,520 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 1: record low of twenty seven percent primary vote. So this 165 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:25,480 Speaker 1: is lower than even Peter Dutton got at the last 166 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:29,840 Speaker 1: election in which he lost his own seat and Labor 167 00:11:29,880 --> 00:11:32,600 Speaker 1: won a record a lot of records, flying around ninety 168 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 1: four seats in the House of Representatives. That is almost 169 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: a two thirds majority. Incidentally, so why is the Liberal 170 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 1: Party continuing to implode Every time it hits rock bottom, 171 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 1: it somehow manages to find the basement. Well, part of 172 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:54,440 Speaker 1: the problem is, of course, you've got a party that 173 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 1: is tearing itself apart because it cannot agree with what 174 00:11:57,720 --> 00:12:01,680 Speaker 1: it is. So you've got all these moderate it's especially 175 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 1: dominant in New South Wales who are kind of like 176 00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 1: your Malcolm turnbulls, who cosmopolitan, they're quite socially progressive, but 177 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:15,800 Speaker 1: they don't like unions and they like making money. You know, 178 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:22,480 Speaker 1: there's an urbane, wealthy, socially progressive global elites if you like. 179 00:12:23,120 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 1: And if that sounds familiar, then yes, that's the entire problem, 180 00:12:26,080 --> 00:12:32,440 Speaker 1: because you've also got a conservative, reactionary, not so rich, 181 00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:36,240 Speaker 1: not so well off rump of right wingers like you 182 00:12:36,320 --> 00:12:38,560 Speaker 1: sort of your one nation types. And one Nation picked 183 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,280 Speaker 1: up a huge chunk of votes in the newspot where 184 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: the Libs lost a whole chunk of votes, and that's 185 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 1: no surprise. People who are suddenly, you know, anti free trade, 186 00:12:49,000 --> 00:12:53,480 Speaker 1: who are pro Tariff and who most importantly are anti 187 00:12:53,720 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 1: net zero. They oppose the goal that was set by 188 00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 1: Scott Morrison of net zero carbon emissions by twenty fifty. 189 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:07,360 Speaker 1: And not only has just Enter Price spectacularly quit the 190 00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 1: front bench, Susan Lee said that you know, she was 191 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:12,960 Speaker 1: sort of booted out, but she knew she was going 192 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:15,240 Speaker 1: to be after Price said that she couldn't support the leader. 193 00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:18,200 Speaker 1: So that was a foregone conclusion. That shots across the bow. 194 00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:22,040 Speaker 1: So you can expect a future challenge probably from Angus Taylor, 195 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:24,120 Speaker 1: with just In the Price running as his deputy. The 196 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 1: other big leadership hope is Andrew Hasty, the former Sas 197 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 1: soldier who is a very popular MP in Western Australia 198 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 1: and a lot of people see him as future leadership material, 199 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:41,480 Speaker 1: and he's basically put his front bench position on the 200 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 1: line as well, saying that if the Coalition sticks with 201 00:13:45,559 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 1: net zero then he'll walk from front bench. Now, this 202 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 1: presents an existential threat to both the Liberal Party and 203 00:13:53,280 --> 00:13:56,440 Speaker 1: the Coalition, but the Coalition the Libs in the Nats 204 00:13:56,440 --> 00:13:58,480 Speaker 1: are split enough as it is. Let's go to the 205 00:13:58,520 --> 00:14:02,920 Speaker 1: split between the lead themselves. Now, if the Libs move 206 00:14:03,000 --> 00:14:06,840 Speaker 1: to the right on immigration, which hurt them enormously at 207 00:14:06,840 --> 00:14:08,720 Speaker 1: the last election. And again you would have heard us 208 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:12,440 Speaker 1: talk about that, and it's all come true, and they 209 00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 1: moved to the right on climate and say no, we don't 210 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:16,679 Speaker 1: believe in climate change, or you know, we're not going 211 00:14:16,679 --> 00:14:18,720 Speaker 1: to get to net zero, or we're not going to 212 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 1: even have net zero as a target. This is seen 213 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:27,520 Speaker 1: as conservatives as the great White hope, this is what's 214 00:14:27,560 --> 00:14:30,960 Speaker 1: going to save the Liberal Party. In fact, all the 215 00:14:30,960 --> 00:14:35,000 Speaker 1: evidence suggests it will do exactly the opposite. And you 216 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:36,640 Speaker 1: have people who look to the US and say, well, look, 217 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:38,480 Speaker 1: Donald Trump's doing all these things. He got out of 218 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 1: it and he just got re elected as president, and 219 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 1: they saying look at the UK. There, Reform UK headed 220 00:14:46,280 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 1: by Nigel Farage is ahead of the Labor Party just 221 00:14:50,040 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 1: after the Labor Party got in with the landslide majority 222 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:57,520 Speaker 1: in the House of Commons and already Reform UK the 223 00:14:57,560 --> 00:14:59,240 Speaker 1: far right if you want to call it that or whatever. 224 00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 1: But Nigel far just party like Donald Trump, anti migration, 225 00:15:03,920 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 1: anti climate change. These guys are beating the government. We 226 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 1: can do the same thing here. Well, that's the problem. 227 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 1: We can't because the US and the UK both have 228 00:15:16,840 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 1: voluntary voting. They both have optional voting. You do not 229 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 1: have to go out and vote on election day if 230 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:23,160 Speaker 1: you're a citizen in either of those countries. And that 231 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: means that people who are most energized about politics are 232 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:30,400 Speaker 1: the ones who decide election outcomes. You've got to get 233 00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:33,560 Speaker 1: out the vote. If you're a mainstream political party in 234 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: the US or the UK, you've got to get people 235 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:37,280 Speaker 1: fired up about stuff. You've got to fire them up 236 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:40,520 Speaker 1: enough to get off their asses, get off the couch, 237 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 1: take time off work in the case of the US 238 00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: when it's a Tuesday, possibly even lose pay in some cases, 239 00:15:47,040 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 1: and go and vote. And so you've got to put, 240 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 1: if you like, the fear of God into people. You've 241 00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: got to make people feel passionate enough to do something 242 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 1: they don't have to do. In Australia. Doesn't work like that. 243 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:00,760 Speaker 1: In Australia, everyone has to go and vot. It means 244 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 1: the elections and not decided by the most political, which 245 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,720 Speaker 1: often means the most radical or the most activist. It 246 00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:11,800 Speaker 1: means they're determined by the most apolitical. And what happens 247 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:15,120 Speaker 1: when a political or just people who are just wanting 248 00:16:15,160 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 1: to get by, just want to pay the bills, put 249 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:19,960 Speaker 1: food on the table, pick their kids up from school, 250 00:16:20,080 --> 00:16:23,120 Speaker 1: not have to sit through another school concert. They just 251 00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:25,200 Speaker 1: want to get on with their lives. And if they 252 00:16:25,320 --> 00:16:28,640 Speaker 1: see people going too far to the left or the right, 253 00:16:29,160 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 1: Australian voters just stay away. And that's exactly what we 254 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 1: saw last time around when Peter Dutton lost his seat 255 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 1: and the Coalition lost basically all hope of winning an election, 256 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:46,000 Speaker 1: not just that time, but the next time. And they'll 257 00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 1: have a really hard time the election after that as well. 258 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 1: So they're out for three, six, maybe nine years. And 259 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 1: that was because people looked at Peter Dutton backing in 260 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 1: Trump and seeming to be more on Trump side than 261 00:16:58,920 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 1: on Australia's side. Again, people didn't like Donald Trump. People say, 262 00:17:02,240 --> 00:17:04,400 Speaker 1: why can't we just be more like Donald Trump. Australian 263 00:17:04,480 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 1: voters hate that, and I think they hate it because 264 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:11,239 Speaker 1: we are just generally more relaxed than Americans are. And 265 00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:15,840 Speaker 1: again also because Trump gets people fired up, and so 266 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 1: if you don't really you know, so he gets everyone 267 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:19,960 Speaker 1: who wants to come out and vote for Trump. They're 268 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,200 Speaker 1: all coming out. They are taking time off work, they're 269 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 1: getting off the couch and they are going out to 270 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:27,920 Speaker 1: vote for him, and people who are just a bit meh, 271 00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:30,639 Speaker 1: they can just stay home. In Australia, all those people 272 00:17:30,680 --> 00:17:33,240 Speaker 1: have to get out, all the people who can't be 273 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:35,440 Speaker 1: bothered voting for Trump. I didn't want to vote for Trump. 274 00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:38,440 Speaker 1: Imagine if they all had to vote anyway. Again, they're 275 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:42,080 Speaker 1: not voting for Trump, just as they didn't vote for 276 00:17:42,160 --> 00:17:47,480 Speaker 1: Peter Dutton. And so all these calls to drag a 277 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:51,640 Speaker 1: party to the right cannot possibly work in a situation 278 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:55,119 Speaker 1: where you have compulsory voting and also preferential voting. In 279 00:17:55,119 --> 00:17:56,880 Speaker 1: the UK, they don't have that. It's a first pass 280 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:58,760 Speaker 1: the post. So you can go and vote for your 281 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:01,919 Speaker 1: crazy candidate in Australia, but sooner or later you have 282 00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:04,439 Speaker 1: to come back to Labor or Liberal or Labor or 283 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:09,679 Speaker 1: the Nationals. So you can't do anything by going further 284 00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 1: to the right, because again there are writing parties out 285 00:18:13,280 --> 00:18:15,240 Speaker 1: there that can get those votes, and then they either 286 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:17,840 Speaker 1: come to you or if they want, they go to 287 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:20,120 Speaker 1: the Labor Party. And you can't get anywhere from going 288 00:18:20,119 --> 00:18:22,199 Speaker 1: to the middle, which is where the only way that 289 00:18:22,320 --> 00:18:24,639 Speaker 1: liberals can win elections is by moving to the middle. 290 00:18:24,840 --> 00:18:28,680 Speaker 1: But you can't do that because Labour's already there. They've 291 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 1: sewn up those votes and they've increased their majorities in 292 00:18:32,320 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 1: those mainstream suburban seats. So sorry to break it to you, 293 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 1: Liberal Party, you're pretty now. The other huge story of 294 00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,280 Speaker 1: the week is that reports of the death of the 295 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 1: Australia US Alliance have been greatly exaggerated. It turns out 296 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,200 Speaker 1: that Anthony Albanisi, our Prime Minister in case you've forgotten, 297 00:18:57,640 --> 00:19:01,120 Speaker 1: and their President Donald Trump, have had a phone conversation. 298 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 1: The PM then followed that up with the announcement of 299 00:19:05,040 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 1: twelve billion dollars towards a new submarine base in Western Australia. 300 00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:14,639 Speaker 1: And now it's revealed that the PM and the President 301 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:17,439 Speaker 1: will finally have their long awaited face to face meeting 302 00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 1: later this month in the US at the UN General Assembly. 303 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 1: And someone for whom perhaps this was not a great surprise, 304 00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 1: is a guru Amandarin of all things to do with 305 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:33,199 Speaker 1: the Australia US Alliances, a former Labor Party president and 306 00:19:33,280 --> 00:19:37,679 Speaker 1: former Labor Senator. And he joins me right now, Stephen loosely, 307 00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,600 Speaker 1: welcome to the real story. How are you very good? 308 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:42,640 Speaker 3: Thank you, Joe, and thank you for the invitation. 309 00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 1: It is an absolute pleasure. Sir. Now, you are someone 310 00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:48,359 Speaker 1: who has the most impeccable contacts when it comes to 311 00:19:49,560 --> 00:19:54,400 Speaker 1: Australia's counterparts in Washington. You are a very keen student 312 00:19:54,800 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: of American politics. You have, I believe, you know, liaison 313 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:05,360 Speaker 1: even this week with a very senior member of the 314 00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:11,080 Speaker 1: US Congress. Just firstly, talk us through how worried were 315 00:20:11,119 --> 00:20:14,840 Speaker 1: you that the Australia US alliance was on the rocks. 316 00:20:15,480 --> 00:20:23,200 Speaker 3: It was a diversion to suggest that the inability of 317 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:28,159 Speaker 3: the Australians and the Americans to organize meeting between the 318 00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:33,439 Speaker 3: PM and the President was going to durala relationship. I 319 00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:37,439 Speaker 3: never thought that it would, but I was concerned that 320 00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:42,120 Speaker 3: this was a diversion from the real issues between Washington 321 00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:42,679 Speaker 3: and Camera. 322 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:45,600 Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, I have to admit I never thought that 323 00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 1: it was as dire as people were making out. But 324 00:20:48,119 --> 00:20:49,879 Speaker 1: I did start to worry, as perhaps you did, that 325 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 1: it was becoming a self fulfilling prophecy. If enough people 326 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 1: go around saying there's a massive schism between Australia and 327 00:20:56,280 --> 00:21:00,399 Speaker 1: the US and the Prime Minister is anti Trump, you know, 328 00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,480 Speaker 1: if Trump sort of picks that up and runs with it, 329 00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:05,159 Speaker 1: or hears it and thinks, how hang on, is there 330 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,000 Speaker 1: what's going on here? Then you know that you know 331 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,280 Speaker 1: it could manifest itself. Art could become life if you like. 332 00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 3: In my earliest days of active service for the ALP, 333 00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:20,639 Speaker 3: I go back to Gough Whitlam as Prime Minister, and 334 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:25,440 Speaker 3: for a time it looked like Golf and Richard Nixon 335 00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:30,520 Speaker 3: we're not going to be able to cross the political 336 00:21:30,560 --> 00:21:36,560 Speaker 3: threshold together. Now that past that past, these circumstances always do. 337 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:42,880 Speaker 3: It's important for people to realize. I think that Australia 338 00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:47,119 Speaker 3: is a particular value to the United States, just in 339 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,960 Speaker 3: the same way the US is of value to Australia. 340 00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:56,920 Speaker 3: And a pine gamp alone is sufficient to act as 341 00:21:57,000 --> 00:22:02,960 Speaker 3: bedrock for the relationship with Washington. And there's lots more. 342 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:08,440 Speaker 3: There's lots so there may be some choppy water, there 343 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:13,679 Speaker 3: may be some boats that wash ashawl where they shouldn't be. 344 00:22:14,800 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 3: But the relationship has got a lot of bellst, in 345 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:25,399 Speaker 3: particular in the United States Congress, a lot of belst. 346 00:22:25,920 --> 00:22:30,040 Speaker 1: Let's keep talking shipping because of course the great, the 347 00:22:30,080 --> 00:22:32,720 Speaker 1: great stakes in this relationship at the moment is the 348 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 1: Orcust submarine deal and the various agreements and packs that 349 00:22:37,880 --> 00:22:41,560 Speaker 1: go along with that, that sort of scaffold that the 350 00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:45,960 Speaker 1: PM has now had a phone conversation with Trump that 351 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:50,560 Speaker 1: has resulted in or, if you like, completely independently of that, 352 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,280 Speaker 1: the PM has decided that it's in Australia's national interest 353 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:58,240 Speaker 1: to spend twelve billion dollars on a new submarine base 354 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:03,600 Speaker 1: off the West coast, on the West Coast. How you 355 00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:07,000 Speaker 1: know how much of a prit quote pro how transactional 356 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 1: is this sort of relationship. Is it a matter of 357 00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,119 Speaker 1: if we build it, they will come. We have to 358 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:15,960 Speaker 1: show that we're serious about this, and then you know, Trump, 359 00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 1: the US will officially ratify or recommit to, orcus. 360 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 3: The determination of the Australian government to plow our substantial 361 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:32,399 Speaker 3: sums of public money into not only a submarine base, 362 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:37,199 Speaker 3: but infrastructure which can be used by the Australian Navy, 363 00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:41,879 Speaker 3: by the American Navy, the British Navy, and quite possibly 364 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:49,200 Speaker 3: others who are involved in the overall national security architecture. 365 00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:53,120 Speaker 3: I'm thinking of Japan in years to come, for example. 366 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:57,840 Speaker 3: All of this is important. Donald Trump is very transactional 367 00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:03,000 Speaker 3: as a politician and president, and he's made the comment, 368 00:24:03,160 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 3: or it's been reportedly been made by President Trump that 369 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,560 Speaker 3: US foreign policy is based on whether or not he 370 00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,760 Speaker 3: is pleased with what's happening, and given some of the 371 00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:22,159 Speaker 3: decisions that have emanated from Washington, that's not difficult to believe. 372 00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:26,880 Speaker 3: So the fact that Australia has stepped up and we'll 373 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:31,480 Speaker 3: do more in terms of the submarine arm of the 374 00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:37,359 Speaker 3: Australian Navy and allied or other friendly navies was well 375 00:24:37,400 --> 00:24:41,720 Speaker 3: timed and it hit the mark. And it will bear 376 00:24:41,760 --> 00:24:47,080 Speaker 3: in mind you have a circumstance in which Democrats and 377 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:52,200 Speaker 3: Republicans in the Congress really like to see a close 378 00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:54,680 Speaker 3: relationship which bears fruit for both countries. 379 00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 1: That's right. So it's not just the PM and the President. 380 00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 1: There is all this kind of lying state infrastructure, if 381 00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:07,119 Speaker 1: you like, human infrastructure that wants Australia, that is in 382 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,560 Speaker 1: many ways bound to Australia, and people like yourself and 383 00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:16,159 Speaker 1: other senior figures, statesmen, diplomats, politicians have very very close 384 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 1: ties with members of the US Congress, of the public Service, 385 00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:22,360 Speaker 1: the Pentagon and so forth. 386 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:27,600 Speaker 3: No question, and bearing in mind that the ANSAs Alliance 387 00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 3: is one now of quite extraordinary durability in terms of 388 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:37,600 Speaker 3: alliance relationships. From nineteen fifty one to the present. You 389 00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:41,800 Speaker 3: can date it back to John Curtin as Prime Minister 390 00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:47,840 Speaker 3: during the Second World War. This is a much longer 391 00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:52,560 Speaker 3: relationship in military terms than most others. I mean, people 392 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:57,480 Speaker 3: can point to the Brits and the Portuguese six hundred years. 393 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,119 Speaker 1: Trust you to bring that up. That's right. It is 394 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:04,920 Speaker 1: our oldest and strongest alliance, and a lot of people 395 00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,239 Speaker 1: I think, well, I certainly do. I see ORCUS as 396 00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:09,920 Speaker 1: the sort of next evolution of ANSAs, that the two 397 00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:15,280 Speaker 1: are basically, you know, feed into each other. How confident 398 00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:19,080 Speaker 1: are you that the meeting that the PM has with 399 00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:23,320 Speaker 1: Donald Trump at the UN in New York later this month, 400 00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:28,000 Speaker 1: do you think they will walk out of that with 401 00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:31,399 Speaker 1: a renewed commitment to UCUS, because there is under a 402 00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:33,919 Speaker 1: view that this is still an ongoing review by the 403 00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:38,399 Speaker 1: Pentagon and Trumpets of course notoriously mercurial on these matters. 404 00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:40,760 Speaker 1: Are you confident that they will walk out of that 405 00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:45,600 Speaker 1: meeting with a recommitment to ORCUS or a confirmation that 406 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:49,160 Speaker 1: UCUS is still going ahead? And if so, will that 407 00:26:49,280 --> 00:26:53,880 Speaker 1: require you know, like the twelve billion bucks already flagged 408 00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,479 Speaker 1: substantial increase in Australia defense spending. My sense has always 409 00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,800 Speaker 1: been was just waiting for that face to face meeting. 410 00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,040 Speaker 1: Trump would come out and say, yes, we are all 411 00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:07,720 Speaker 1: in with Orcus and Albow. Either then or at a 412 00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:09,800 Speaker 1: future date would say, oh, and by the way, yes, 413 00:27:09,840 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 1: we are increasing defense spending to well over two percent 414 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:14,119 Speaker 1: of GDP. 415 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:18,480 Speaker 3: I think the two countries will make progress again. I 416 00:27:18,520 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 3: think there will be further announcements that. There's no question 417 00:27:21,960 --> 00:27:25,160 Speaker 3: in my mind, Joe, that Australia has been under spending 418 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:28,560 Speaker 3: in defense for a generation. When the Cold War came 419 00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:32,439 Speaker 3: to an end and people thought, well, there's going to 420 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 3: be a peace dividend here, this goes right back to 421 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:40,600 Speaker 3: the Clinton administration. There was precious little peace dividend as 422 00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:47,639 Speaker 3: the autocracies began ramping up their spending and engaging in 423 00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:51,000 Speaker 3: what can only be determed as aggression. Now my own view, 424 00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:55,840 Speaker 3: this is not universally shared, though it's increasingly been embraced. 425 00:27:56,400 --> 00:28:00,879 Speaker 3: We have been in a second Cold War since the 426 00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:05,600 Speaker 3: Russians invaded Georgia from memory two thousand and six something 427 00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:10,600 Speaker 3: like that. You have a circumstance in which the Russians, 428 00:28:10,640 --> 00:28:15,000 Speaker 3: to a lesser extent, the Chinese Communists are certainly the 429 00:28:15,000 --> 00:28:19,200 Speaker 3: Iranians and others determined that if they can't win things 430 00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:24,520 Speaker 3: by negotiation, by dialogue, by agreement, by treaty, they will 431 00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:27,400 Speaker 3: do it by force. And we've seen that on any 432 00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:30,040 Speaker 3: number of occasions. Now that democracies can't sit on their 433 00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,800 Speaker 3: hands in this I know there are people in the 434 00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:37,359 Speaker 3: Australian Parliament who bury their heads in the sad, but 435 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:42,560 Speaker 3: serious politicians both sides of the isle, the Conservative parties 436 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:47,080 Speaker 3: and the Labor Party, understand that you cannot stand idly 437 00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:52,320 Speaker 3: by and see people be bullied out of their existence. 438 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:59,120 Speaker 3: And increasingly in Europe and in Asia, amongst the democracies 439 00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:06,320 Speaker 3: have taken steps to buttress their defense capabilities and to 440 00:29:06,440 --> 00:29:11,280 Speaker 3: increase their ability to respond. For example, I would argue 441 00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:17,040 Speaker 3: that Putin lost the war with Ukraine the very moment 442 00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:22,400 Speaker 3: the first Russian tank cross the Ukrainian border. Because what happened, well, 443 00:29:23,160 --> 00:29:28,480 Speaker 3: Sweden and Finland officially joined NATO. Putin is saying, well, 444 00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:30,840 Speaker 3: we don't want any more NATO on our border. He 445 00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:36,400 Speaker 3: now has nine hundred miles more NATO on the border, 446 00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:38,440 Speaker 3: and Finland. 447 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:41,640 Speaker 1: NATO with increased spending because the European member countries have 448 00:29:41,680 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 1: all jacked up there. 449 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 3: And in other countries, including Switzerland, which staggered me when 450 00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:53,520 Speaker 3: it happened. Now the Baltic Sea is much more readily 451 00:29:53,520 --> 00:29:57,320 Speaker 3: defended by the NATO forces than it was. And the 452 00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:01,480 Speaker 3: country that has shifted the most in terms of returning 453 00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:06,320 Speaker 3: to realism of the Germans. And if anything would keep 454 00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:10,280 Speaker 3: putin awake at night, it's the idea of German armored 455 00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:15,440 Speaker 3: forces in Eastern Europe, German battle groups, so on and 456 00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:15,960 Speaker 3: so forth. 457 00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:18,560 Speaker 1: And it's happened before, hasn't it. 458 00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:21,960 Speaker 3: With one hundred billion extra for defense, What the Mets 459 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:27,120 Speaker 3: government is now doing, that's enough to shake any Russian military. 460 00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:29,880 Speaker 1: Strategists, that's right, and also seeming to try to shore 461 00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:32,400 Speaker 1: up their energy independence as well, to stop them being 462 00:30:32,400 --> 00:30:35,200 Speaker 1: depended on Russian gas and oil and the other. I mean, 463 00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:38,680 Speaker 1: it was on stark display, quite literally, but you know 464 00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:45,040 Speaker 1: Russia's loose ally. China, we had, of course, that that meeting, 465 00:30:45,080 --> 00:30:48,720 Speaker 1: that infamous photograph that our mutual friend Bob Carr wisely 466 00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:53,960 Speaker 1: and studiously avoided. But you had putin there obviously, you 467 00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:59,440 Speaker 1: had a sort of rogues gallery Jijingping Kim Jong. You had, 468 00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:02,880 Speaker 1: you know, the eye the president of Iran, the works 469 00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:08,920 Speaker 1: China is obviously playing a huge role in the Asia Pacific. 470 00:31:08,960 --> 00:31:13,920 Speaker 1: We know that the former government was basically accused of 471 00:31:13,920 --> 00:31:19,480 Speaker 1: being court napping and neglecting our Pacific neighbors. Anthony Albanezi 472 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:25,560 Speaker 1: in Pennywong have been extremely swift and conscientious in showing 473 00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:27,680 Speaker 1: as much love as we can to the Asia Pacific. 474 00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:32,280 Speaker 1: But we've hit a couple of big roadbumps recently in 475 00:31:32,520 --> 00:31:35,600 Speaker 1: Vanauatu was backed out of a treaty that they were 476 00:31:35,640 --> 00:31:40,440 Speaker 1: meant to sign with US, and now PNNG, our closest neighbor, 477 00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,720 Speaker 1: almost to sort of you know, a love child of Australia, 478 00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:47,880 Speaker 1: if you like, was meant to sign a treaty, a 479 00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 1: military treaty that would commit it to full solidarity with 480 00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:56,160 Speaker 1: Australia against any foreign foe. That didn't get signed because 481 00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:59,720 Speaker 1: half the p ANDNG cabinet decided to go awol and 482 00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:04,080 Speaker 1: they couldn't get Korum to sign it, which is pretty convenient, 483 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,800 Speaker 1: and I suspect we all know what's going on there. 484 00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:11,960 Speaker 1: How how much of a concern is this in your 485 00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:15,600 Speaker 1: mind that the PM has been despite his best efforts, 486 00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:19,600 Speaker 1: been unable to get both these countries and especially P 487 00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,720 Speaker 1: and G, which is so so close has such close 488 00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:27,400 Speaker 1: ties to Australia. You know, could these you know, could 489 00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:29,600 Speaker 1: P and G be flipped to China? We know that 490 00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,640 Speaker 1: Beijing is whispering in these countries' ears to use them 491 00:32:32,680 --> 00:32:38,640 Speaker 1: for naval bases, et cetera. Have economic dependence, you know, 492 00:32:39,480 --> 00:32:41,400 Speaker 1: is you know, could we have a China proxy on 493 00:32:41,480 --> 00:32:42,080 Speaker 1: a doorstep? 494 00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:47,160 Speaker 3: Well, I think that's unlikely. It's possible, but it's unlikely. 495 00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:48,120 Speaker 1: You said that. 496 00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:52,640 Speaker 3: The difficulty you have Joe was an old war horse 497 00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:57,200 Speaker 3: like me, is that my local federal member in the 498 00:32:57,280 --> 00:33:02,040 Speaker 3: nineteen seventies was the External Territories Minister Bill Morrison. He 499 00:33:02,080 --> 00:33:06,160 Speaker 3: went on to be Defense Minister, and he had responsibility 500 00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:11,280 Speaker 3: for bringing Papua New Guinea to independence fifty years ago. Yes, 501 00:33:11,400 --> 00:33:14,600 Speaker 3: he didn't do a bad job, and he and I 502 00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:18,080 Speaker 3: used to talk about the challenges and so on and 503 00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:21,960 Speaker 3: so forth. And I often think those conversations with Bill 504 00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:25,240 Speaker 3: led to me being shot at on Bougainville Island by 505 00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:29,680 Speaker 3: the Bogainville Revolutionary Army many years later when he told 506 00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:33,880 Speaker 3: me one story about the father of Papua New Guinea 507 00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:37,920 Speaker 3: independence and that of course Prime Minister Michael Samare. And 508 00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:44,080 Speaker 3: there were occasions when Samara didn't want to talk to 509 00:33:44,200 --> 00:33:47,560 Speaker 3: the Australians or anyone. So what he'd simply do is 510 00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:50,760 Speaker 3: he would load up a boat, head up river from 511 00:33:51,120 --> 00:33:54,120 Speaker 3: home and disappear for a couple of weeks and he'd 512 00:33:54,160 --> 00:33:58,200 Speaker 3: be surrounded by friends and family, and then he'd come 513 00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,160 Speaker 3: back when he was ready to talk. So this is 514 00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:06,400 Speaker 3: not unusual that you have these kinds of by Western standards, breakdowns, 515 00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:10,319 Speaker 3: by P and G standards pauses. I think it will 516 00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:13,680 Speaker 3: be all right over time. And you alluded to what 517 00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,600 Speaker 3: might be going on behind the scenes, and I think 518 00:34:16,640 --> 00:34:23,520 Speaker 3: you're right in terms of foreign hostile forces endeavoring to derail, 519 00:34:23,640 --> 00:34:28,440 Speaker 3: but that will pass. And our situation visa Vie, the 520 00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:34,120 Speaker 3: neighborhood Visavi the South Pacific is infinitely better than it 521 00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:38,600 Speaker 3: was just a couple of years ago, and I think 522 00:34:38,640 --> 00:34:43,280 Speaker 3: it's going to be fine over time. Politics is about 523 00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:48,880 Speaker 3: overcoming these challenges and doing it by diplomacy now, and 524 00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:52,000 Speaker 3: I agree with you on Anthony Albanezi and Penny Warm. 525 00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:57,360 Speaker 3: I would add Richard Miles and Patrick Conroy, who've done 526 00:34:57,680 --> 00:35:02,160 Speaker 3: some outstanding things in terms of relations with the local 527 00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:09,000 Speaker 3: military and building greater relations of trust between the island. 528 00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:13,040 Speaker 3: Notions and Australia, and I noticed that New Zealand is 529 00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:17,160 Speaker 3: endeavoring to play a greater part, and over time, I'm 530 00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:22,120 Speaker 3: thinking that the Japanese and the French and the Americans 531 00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:26,520 Speaker 3: will also be far more cooperative with the island countries 532 00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:27,840 Speaker 3: and the results will be better. 533 00:35:28,960 --> 00:35:31,960 Speaker 1: Well, on that happy note, we always like to start 534 00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,480 Speaker 1: the show with armageddon and finish with world peace. So 535 00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:37,360 Speaker 1: Stephen loosely, thank you so much for joining us on 536 00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:38,040 Speaker 1: the Real Story. 537 00:35:38,239 --> 00:35:41,200 Speaker 3: An absolute pleasure, Joe, absolute. 538 00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,760 Speaker 1: Pleasure, and that is all we have time for this week. 539 00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:45,960 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us. If you want 540 00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,720 Speaker 1: to leave us a review or a rating, you can 541 00:35:49,320 --> 00:35:52,480 Speaker 1: so do it, please God, don't stay at home, just 542 00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:55,800 Speaker 1: enjoy the show whatever you like. You can, of course 543 00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:57,640 Speaker 1: also drop us a line at the Real Story at 544 00:35:57,680 --> 00:36:00,000 Speaker 1: novapodcast dot com dot are you, or you can slide 545 00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:03,160 Speaker 1: into my dms on the grid that's at Joe Underscore 546 00:36:03,160 --> 00:36:07,000 Speaker 1: at Hildebrand on Instagram. Plus you can read my columns 547 00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,960 Speaker 1: in all the news Court papers every Monday and Saturday. 548 00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:12,759 Speaker 1: And if that's not enough to fill your boots, I'll 549 00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:13,960 Speaker 1: speak to you next week. Take care,