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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump threatened the Orchest deal as analysts claim it's

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Speaker 1: part of a bid for a lesser deal for Australia.

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Speaker 1: Byd claims cheaper evs are on the way, and the

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Speaker 1: share price of one of the country's favorite online luxury

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Speaker 1: retailers tumbles as it downgrades it's profit outlook. Plus, consumer

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Speaker 1: sentiment picks up slightly, and the US and China close

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Speaker 1: to doing a deal over tariffs. It is Friday, the

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Speaker 1: thirteenth of June twenty twenty five. A little bit ominous, Sean.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson. Good morning, Sean, Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: I must say, until this man and I didn't realize

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Speaker 2: it was Friday, the thirteenth. Full moon. We had a

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Speaker 2: strawberry moon a couple of nights ago, so the moon's

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Speaker 2: still pretty full. Scary stuff out.

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Speaker 1: There, that's very exciting. You know what is scary.

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Speaker 2: What is scary, Michael, What is scary is just.

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Speaker 1: How many people have signed up to the Fear and

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Speaker 1: Green newsletter.

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Speaker 2: That is scary because we write it. When you have

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Speaker 2: thousands of people reading it, you suddenly take it very

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Speaker 2: very seriously.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, if you are one of the few yet to

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Speaker 1: sign up, then get on board.

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Speaker 2: Get on board, sign up. You will arrive at work

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Speaker 2: just one step ahead of your competitors and the person

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Speaker 2: sitting next to you, unless, of course they're read the newsletter.

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Speaker 2: Then you're on equal footing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right, and who wants to start the day behind? Really?

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Speaker 2: That's right?

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Speaker 1: Okay? So yep, show notes fearingngreed dot com today you

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Speaker 1: there is a link pop your email addressing. It is

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Speaker 1: that simple and it is free. All right, on with

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Speaker 1: the show, Sean. The main story this morning. There are

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Speaker 1: major question marks over ORCUS, which is of course Australia's

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Speaker 1: deal with the US and the UK to build nuclear

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Speaker 1: powered submarines over the coming decades. This is a long

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Speaker 1: term thing. After the Trump administration called for a review

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Speaker 1: of the three hundred and eighty six billion dollars security packed, Defense.

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Speaker 2: Minister Richard Miles tried to calm down the shock announcement

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Speaker 2: from the White House, saying it's perfectly natural for an

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Speaker 2: incoming government to review the pact. He also said there

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Speaker 2: can be no going back on the deal. Part of

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Speaker 2: the pun it is full steam ahead. The government does

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Speaker 2: some reaons go full steam ahead, full.

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Speaker 1: Power, nuclear powered ones. Steems a little bit.

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Speaker 2: That's not the world. Yeah, anyway. The announcement came ahead

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Speaker 2: of expected talks between Donald Trump and Prime Minister Anthony

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Speaker 2: Albert Easy early next week on the sidelines of the

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Speaker 2: G seven summit. Analyst said it may well be a

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Speaker 2: Trump negotiating tactic to force the alban Easy government to

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Speaker 2: increase defense spending. The Pentagon announced that the review is

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Speaker 2: aimed at ensuring the military pack between Australia, the US

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Speaker 2: and Britain best serves the interests of the United States.

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Speaker 2: It's being undertaken by the under Secretary for Defense for policy,

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Speaker 2: guy called Elbridge Colby. Cracking name Elbridge, Yeah, yeah, without

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Speaker 2: the d Elbridge as opposed to Delbridge Elbridge Colby.

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Speaker 1: Is Delbridge a more common name?

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Speaker 2: No, it's not. I just realized that as I was saying,

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Speaker 2: and I'm trying to get himself out of it, So

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Speaker 2: let's move on now. Elbridge. Mister Colby was a former

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Speaker 2: skeptic of Orcus, although more recently he seems to have changed.

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Speaker 2: He's changed his views on the three decade long plans

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Speaker 2: for Australia to build and acquire eight nuclear powered submarines

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Speaker 2: through shared manufacturing and technology capabilities.

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Speaker 1: There was a lot of response to this yesterday. There

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Speaker 1: was some for, some against. But what does it mean?

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Speaker 1: Does it mean that we're going to have to either

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Speaker 1: re prosecute the Orchestele, renegotiate the orchest Steel. Do we

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Speaker 1: have to go through everything all again? Or is it

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Speaker 1: kind of set in stone.

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Speaker 2: It's good question where certainly in the media we will

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Speaker 2: be reprosecuting this and a bunch of former prime ministers

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Speaker 2: are talking. I must say former Prime Minister Scott Morrison,

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Speaker 2: who was the architect of the orchest Steel. Though he

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Speaker 2: didn't sign it Albaneze he signed it. He kind of

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Speaker 2: sounded sensible when he warned against overstating the US's plans

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Speaker 2: to review the defense packed. In a post on LinkedIn,

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Speaker 2: he wrote, II kuaib this is a departmental review, not

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Speaker 2: Holisey decision and should not be over interpreted.

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Speaker 1: Could see LinkedIn getting its moment in the sun.

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Speaker 2: So true. Another former Prime Minister, Paul Keating, was less understated.

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Speaker 2: Shall we say Keating's a vocal opponent of ORCUS. He

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Speaker 2: said the moment might save Australia from itself.

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Speaker 1: Be delivering headlines for decades now, hasn't he?

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Speaker 2: For as long as the Orcist deal? Yet another form

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Speaker 2: of PM. We have so many of them, Malcolm Turnbull.

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Speaker 2: He says Australia must develop a fullback plan in the

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Speaker 2: event the US reneges on a deal to provide nuclear

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Speaker 2: powered submarines. Trump's got a bit of a habit attacking

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Speaker 2: in place deals. He's made us operandi, especially with allies,

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Speaker 2: which is slightly irritating. He's trying to strike a better

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Speaker 2: deal and I just reckon, it's Australia's turn to be

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Speaker 2: in the headlights. Orcas is part of that. What doesn't mean?

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Speaker 2: It probably means that, you know, he'll try and force

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Speaker 2: Anthony Alberanezi and the Labor government to spend more on

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Speaker 2: defense or the might be some other monetary value to

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Speaker 2: the US going forward. Look, I don't think it's I'm

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Speaker 2: not a big fan of, you know, the US using

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Speaker 2: these sorts of deals indegationting tactics, but it is the

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Speaker 2: way Donald Trump operates, and so I think the world

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Speaker 2: has to get used to it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it does seem that way. All right, Let's take

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Speaker 1: a look at local markets. How did it go yesterday?

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Speaker 2: The s and P A six two hundred finished down

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Speaker 2: a bit to eight five hundred and sixty five points. Generally,

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Speaker 2: the mining stocks did best, while some of the battery

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Speaker 2: metals companies did worse. And that's on the back of

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Speaker 2: that Orchestral plus some stuff on Wall Street, which we'll

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Speaker 2: talk about in a moment. All the big banks for

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Speaker 2: lower as were the big three miners for a few

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Speaker 2: Meddles was the worst of the lockdown three percent. The

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Speaker 2: more stable stocks, the excitingly steady stocks, the CSL West Farmers,

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Speaker 2: Transurbanway yep, they all did best.

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Speaker 1: Toll roads that is the very definition of stable and steady.

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Speaker 2: Toros is like sexy infrastructure. So infrastructure I used to

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Speaker 2: think was the most boring word. Ever, now I've got

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Speaker 2: to say infrastructure has sort of taken off. It's one

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Speaker 2: of the great investments. For reason.

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Speaker 1: Describing it as sexy. It reminds me of those people,

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Speaker 1: you know, the ones that marry bridges. Yes, they they

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Speaker 1: find infrastructure particularly sexy. Anyway, you mentioned Wall Street. US

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Speaker 1: President Donald Trump is putting pressure on the Federal Reserve

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Speaker 1: to cut interest rates after somewhat benign inflation figures.

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Speaker 2: May Consumer Price Index data shows modest price increases, inflation

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Speaker 2: up two point four percent for the year. The underlying

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Speaker 2: rate or the measure of the underlying rate two point

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Speaker 2: eight percent. Sounds very similar to Australia, doesn't it does.

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Speaker 2: The Fed's meeting next week, Donald Trump call called the

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Speaker 2: inflation figures great, adding that the FED should cut rates

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Speaker 2: by one percentage point. That will not happen. The challenge

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Speaker 2: for the FED is trying to work out what the

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Speaker 2: Trump tariffs mean for inflation, and the numbers that came

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Speaker 2: out thirty six hours ago, they're not really going to

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Speaker 2: reflect tariffs.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Of course, while we're talking about tariffs, Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: is also claiming that a trade deal has been done

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Speaker 1: essentially between the world's two biggest economies.

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Speaker 2: He said it's subject to final approval from Chinese President

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Speaker 2: Jijingping and himself, but he did say a deal was done.

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Speaker 2: Negotiators from Washington Beijing agreed on a framework covering tariff rates.

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Speaker 2: The deal also removes Chinese export restrictions on rare earth

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Speaker 2: minerals and allows Chinese students access to US universities. That

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Speaker 2: deal is why some of the battery middle companies didn't

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Speaker 2: do so well yesterday. Meanwhile, Tensions between the US and

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Speaker 2: Iran have escalated, with the Pentagon removing non essential US

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Speaker 2: personnel from the Middle East. When Trump was asked about it,

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Speaker 2: he said, they're being moved out because it's a dangerous place,

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Speaker 2: and we'll see what happens.

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Speaker 1: Okay, the geopolitics and the diplomacy involved in the Middle

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Speaker 1: East and all of that, it gets very convolted. Please

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Speaker 1: don't think less of me for doing this, But I

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Speaker 1: want to bring it back to something that actually matters

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Speaker 1: to me.

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Speaker 2: Yes, petrol prices or diesel prices.

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Speaker 1: Diesel prices very specifically diesel prices, yes, but US China

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Speaker 1: and obviously a run then involved here too. What does

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Speaker 1: that then mean when it flows through to the bowser.

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Speaker 2: So it's very hard to get your head around all

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Speaker 2: this stuff that's going on and the day to day stuff.

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Speaker 2: So actually a good way about thinking about it is

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Speaker 2: what's happening to oil prices? Slash petrol prices? So that

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Speaker 2: smug look on your face, yeah, I look you what

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Speaker 2: I was talking about. The oil prices. They go up

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Speaker 2: and down obviously and takes two to three weeks. The

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Speaker 2: ahriblec is founded flows through to the bowser. So that's

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Speaker 2: kind of good. The bad news Oil prices surged on

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Speaker 2: kind of what's gone on in past thirty six hours

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Speaker 2: or so, up five percent to above seventy US dollars

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Speaker 2: a barrel. They're actually up about seventeen percent over the

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Speaker 2: past three weeks. This is definitely starting to feed through

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Speaker 2: to the bowser, given it just takes that time period

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Speaker 2: to get there. So the upshot all this US China

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Speaker 2: are stuff not good news for people filling up their cars.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, doesn't sound like it. Okay, Sean, we have covered

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Speaker 1: a lot of ground already. We still have a lot

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Speaker 1: to cover. We'll take a quick break back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean.

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Speaker 1: Consumer sentiment is nudging higher, very slowly, as lower inflation

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Speaker 1: and interest rate cuts filter through gradually to households.

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Speaker 2: There was some more good news there from the Westpac

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Speaker 2: Melbourne Institute Dune Consumer Sentiment Index. The survey shows a

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Speaker 2: lift in buying intentions as the cost of living squeeze eases,

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Speaker 2: but again only at the margins.

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Speaker 1: The bad news is.

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Speaker 2: That slow growth and trade disputes overseas are weighing on

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Speaker 2: the consumer mood, and people are more worried about risk

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Speaker 2: about things going wrong. So Westpac reckons consumers are in

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Speaker 2: a cautious pessimism phase. Is there a non cautious pessimism phase?

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Speaker 2: I would ask yeah.

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Speaker 1: I would say pessimism is always cautious, right, I would

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Speaker 1: say yeah, You're right.

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Speaker 2: The index remains under one hundred, meaning there are more

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Speaker 2: pessimists than optimists out there among consumers.

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Speaker 1: Okay. The boss of electric vehicle manufacturer of BYD in

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Speaker 1: Australia expects EV prices to eventually fall to the same

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Speaker 1: level as petrol cars, and he says that the introduction

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Speaker 1: of the BYD shark Ute range great name rightat has

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Speaker 1: transformed the company in Australia.

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Speaker 2: Chinese own BYD is the biggest EV seller in Australia,

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Speaker 2: outperforming Tesla. Last month was the twelfth highest selling car brand.

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Speaker 2: Local CEO Stephen Collins, speaking to the AFR, says the

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Speaker 2: economics of volume and scale means prices will definitely come

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Speaker 2: down and get down to what internal combustion engine cars

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Speaker 2: are selling for. BYD sold two hundred and twenty five

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Speaker 2: vehicles in Australia last month. It sold sixty thousand vehicles

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Speaker 2: since twenty twenty two, when it entered the market pretty

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Speaker 2: good effort for a new car manufacturer. Collins says the

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Speaker 2: introduction of the BYD Shark BYD Shark it is good

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Speaker 2: has been instrumental in elevating the brand in Australia because

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Speaker 2: es make up about twenty two percent of all new sales.

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Speaker 2: Helping that is that the BYD Shark is about fifty

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Speaker 2: eight thousand dollars before on road costs. Like the forger

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Speaker 2: Ford Ranger plug in hybrid, for example, it's about seventy

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Speaker 2: two thousand, so it's relatively cheap.

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Speaker 1: The BYD Cars online retailer satire This share price tumbled

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Speaker 1: more than thirty percent yesterday after the group flagged a

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Speaker 1: loss during the March quarter and downgraded its full year

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Speaker 1: profit guidance.

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Speaker 2: Founder and chief executive Dean Mintz warned that the outlook

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Speaker 2: for the global luxury good sector remains bleak, particularly in

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Speaker 2: the US. SETI calls itself an online fashion lucky emporium.

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Speaker 2: Maybe it's a little luxury fashion emporium. I'm guessing online

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Speaker 2: Lushian Lushian online luxury fashion emporium and sells brands including Gucci, Dulchin, Gabana, Berbury,

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Speaker 2: Your Favorite and max Mahra. It actually sells them at

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Speaker 2: significant discounts. Satire ships items directly from third party sellers

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Speaker 2: located mostly in Europe. Mintz blamed the weak results on

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Speaker 2: foreign exchange losses, uncertainty surrounding you as tariff policies, and

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Speaker 2: high fulfillment costs. Whatever the reason it fell thirty one percent. Yes,

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Speaker 2: so the share price that's a big form.

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Speaker 1: That is massive. Your reference to Berbury being my favorite

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Speaker 1: on the way through, we've established my favorite brand as

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Speaker 1: Anko from kmart right Seawan. Voters in Tasmania are heading

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Speaker 1: to their second election in fifteen months after Parliament last week,

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Speaker 1: of course, passed a vote of no confidence in Premier

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Speaker 1: Jeremy Rockliffe. We mentioned that at the time, and then

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Speaker 1: on Wednesday night of this week Tasmanian Governor Barbara Baker

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Speaker 1: agreed to dissolve the House of Assembly. So it is

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Speaker 1: a fit.

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Speaker 2: It is tazzy. Watchers say it will be difficult for

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Speaker 2: either the Liberal or Labor parties to form a majority government.

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Speaker 2: The Libs have been in power since twenty fourteen, but

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Speaker 2: have been leaning over minority government since March twenty twenty four.

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Speaker 2: There are fourteen Libs, ten Labor, five Greens and six independents.

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Speaker 2: Seems the big talking point in politics in Tasmania AFL.

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Speaker 2: Both major parties support a second stadium in Hobart, which

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Speaker 2: is a condition of the AFL for the Tasmania Devils

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Speaker 2: to enter the league in twenty twenty eight. Greens and

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Speaker 2: several independents are opposed to it.

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Speaker 1: Okay, turning to international news now, and US troops deployed

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Speaker 1: in Los Angeles have been authorized to detain people until

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Speaker 1: police can arrest them as hundreds of Marines prepare to

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Speaker 1: move into the city. This just keeps escalating, it does.

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Speaker 2: I mean detaining people is a significant step up from

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Speaker 2: being the Marines being ordered to protect US personnel and property.

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Speaker 2: The idea is that they seven hundred Marines four thousand

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Speaker 2: National Guards can detain people until Law and four arrives

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Speaker 2: and arrests these people. The protests over Donald Trump's immigration

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Speaker 2: rates have spread from California to other cities. Hundreds of

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Speaker 2: demonstrations are actually planned for this weekend across the country.

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Speaker 2: So it's worrying and there'll be a lot of turmoil

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Speaker 2: across the US. Yeah, and in the next few days.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's an extraordinary situation. Just watch it unfolding from

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Speaker 1: Afar now. Sean quick mention before we wrap things up.

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Speaker 1: We are working with FONTO, a research agency, to learn

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Speaker 1: more about the Fear and Greed community. We are running

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Speaker 1: a very short survey. We want to hear from you

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Speaker 1: what you enjoy, what you think we could improve on

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Speaker 1: how you're feeling broadly about fear and Greed. It only

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Speaker 1: takes a couple of minutes.

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Speaker 2: Good about it?

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Speaker 1: I am too, I'm feeling great about it, feeling excellent.

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Speaker 1: I'll do the survey today, skew the results, and by

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Speaker 1: taking part before at thirty June, you will be in

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Speaker 1: the running to win a three thousand dollars luxury escapes

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Speaker 1: about you. It is a fantastic prize. I have put

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Speaker 1: the link in today's show notes. It is also in

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Speaker 1: the Fear and Greed Daily newsletter. If you happen to

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Speaker 1: be subscriber to that, scroll on down you'll see the

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Speaker 1: link there too. Sean. Up next is the Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed Daily Interview. Your guest today Michael Sadat, who is

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Speaker 1: the international head of Public Policy at Block, which is

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Speaker 1: of course the owner of after pay.

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Speaker 2: So this week there were new rules coming in to

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Speaker 2: force for buying now pay later operators. They have to

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Speaker 2: operate under a new set of laws, which are based

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Speaker 2: on credit laws that affect credit cards, but they're watered

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Speaker 2: down versions of it. So we talk to Michael about

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Speaker 2: those new rules. What it means for people at You

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Speaker 2: and I News after pay, What it means for people

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Speaker 2: who don't use after pay but might want to use

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Speaker 2: after pay, What it means for after pay, What it

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Speaker 2: means for merchants.

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Speaker 1: It's great chat, Yeah, it really is. It is coming

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Speaker 1: up next to the Fear and Greed playlist on your

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Speaker 1: podcast platform or at Fearandgreed dot com dot au, which

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Speaker 1: is where you sign up for the free daily newsletter.

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Speaker 1: Thank you Sean, Thank you Michael. It is Friday, the

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Speaker 1: thirteenth of June twenty twenty five. Make sure you're following

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Speaker 1: the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: x TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson and that was

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed. Have a great day.