WEBVTT - George Megalogenis on who will win the next election

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<v Speaker 1>From Sports Media. I'm Daniel James. This is seven am.

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<v Speaker 1>Australian politics is changing, and it's changing fast in ways.

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<v Speaker 1>It seems the Labor Party and the Coalition really haven't

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<v Speaker 1>come to terms with and as the electric splinters, it's

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<v Speaker 1>harder than ever for governments to last more than three years.

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<v Speaker 1>Just months from an election where a minority government looks likely,

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<v Speaker 1>scare campaigns about unholy alliances have begun. I signed that

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<v Speaker 1>the two major parties are rather by the prospect of

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<v Speaker 1>what's to come. Today. Author of Minority report The New

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<v Speaker 1>Shape of Australian Politics, George metlagenis on the new battle

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<v Speaker 1>lines between the city and the suburbs and how the

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<v Speaker 1>results of the Voice referendum are still reverberating. It's Friday,

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<v Speaker 1>December sixth George. We may just be a few months

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<v Speaker 1>out from the next federal election. So who's going to win.

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<v Speaker 1>Who's going to win?

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<v Speaker 2>I think the people of Australia might win if they

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<v Speaker 2>hang the parliament again.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>I think we've got about three plausible scenarios and the

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<v Speaker 2>most likely one at the moment minority Labor government. We've

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<v Speaker 2>Labor finishing a few seats ahead of the coalition and

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<v Speaker 2>been able to form minority government and a stable one

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<v Speaker 2>at that. The sort of second best scenario is a

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<v Speaker 2>bit of a dead heat on the floor if it

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<v Speaker 2>is going to be a hung parliament, with the possibility

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<v Speaker 2>that Peter and Data might be in a chance of

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<v Speaker 2>former minit a government. But he sort of come at

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<v Speaker 2>this term of parliament the wrong way around. He's sort

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<v Speaker 2>of been yelling at the Teals, yelling at the Greens,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's the cross bench that will determine the next

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<v Speaker 2>government in the event of a hung parliament. And the

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<v Speaker 2>other scenario, which I probably would rule out now, but

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<v Speaker 2>it maybe even six months ago I wouldn't have ruled

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<v Speaker 2>is that Labor holds its majority, even increases it slightly

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<v Speaker 2>because the Coalition are too far from power. But we're

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<v Speaker 2>in a cost of living crisis. We're in a global

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<v Speaker 2>inflation shock, and your history tells you that inflation is

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<v Speaker 2>a government killer. It doesn't matter how newer old the

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<v Speaker 2>government is. We're already seen at the state and territory

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<v Speaker 2>level far out of the last eight elections at the

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<v Speaker 2>state and territory level of Senate change of government, and

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<v Speaker 2>that's since twenty twenty two, so Whilst Albernese's government is

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<v Speaker 2>one of those governments that came to power from opposition,

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<v Speaker 2>that doesn't change the fact that we're in an anti

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<v Speaker 2>incumbent cycle.

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<v Speaker 1>So what's driving the this shift, this diminishing in the

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<v Speaker 1>primary votes of both the major Parties's what's happening here.

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<v Speaker 2>So what we've had since twenty ten, and it really

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<v Speaker 2>begins with a thudded in twenty ten, we've had a

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<v Speaker 2>net swing away from both parties, So I swing away

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<v Speaker 2>from the geopoly in two ten to thirteen to sixteen,

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<v Speaker 2>two ninety two five elections. Row never happened before. It

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<v Speaker 2>didn't even happen in the depression.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's a trend. That's a trend. So that's your trend.

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<v Speaker 2>Right Labour loses it from its left flank, the Coalition's

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<v Speaker 2>lost at it from its center, and so the two

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<v Speaker 2>of them have at a one piece of the puddle,

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<v Speaker 2>which is the progressive the other piece of the puzzle,

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<v Speaker 2>which now is coming off both sides as well as

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<v Speaker 2>that Palmer Hansen grouping, which is around nine or ten

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<v Speaker 2>percent of the last federal election. And this is the

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<v Speaker 2>problem for both sides because it's coming off both their piles.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not the same story that we've seen in the past.

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<v Speaker 1>And one of the coalition's key attack lines has been

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<v Speaker 1>that we can't risk having a minority Labor government, that

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<v Speaker 1>the Tills and the Greens would end up with too

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<v Speaker 1>much power over the country. It will be a disaster.

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<v Speaker 3>If you think the Albanezi government is bad, now, wait

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<v Speaker 3>for it to be a minority government with the Greens,

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<v Speaker 3>the Green Tials and Muslim independence.

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<v Speaker 1>What have you made of those scare campaigns.

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<v Speaker 2>I find them a little desperate now because the electorate

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<v Speaker 2>at the last election broke to thirds. Labor Party's primary

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<v Speaker 2>was just under thirty three percent, the coalition is just

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<v Speaker 2>under thirty six and a bit over thirty percent, highest

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<v Speaker 2>highest in the post war period past. Outside of a

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<v Speaker 2>depression for minor parties in independence, then none of the

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<v Speaker 2>above vote. I think when you begin with a base

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<v Speaker 2>that's above thirty percent for independence and minor parties, to

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<v Speaker 2>tell that third of the Australian electorate that they made

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<v Speaker 2>a mistake the last time is probably not the best,

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<v Speaker 2>probably not the best way to go about engaging with

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<v Speaker 2>the diverse and fractured electorate. So I don't think it's

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<v Speaker 2>that bright. If you roll back to the twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 2>two campaign when that sort of till where it started

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<v Speaker 2>to form, sort of very late in the term, when

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<v Speaker 2>the tills were looming as a as a as a

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<v Speaker 2>new force. Scott Morrisson said, don't.

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<v Speaker 3>There is a choice, and it's a choice between where

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<v Speaker 3>you want the Liberal and Nationals to run the country

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<v Speaker 3>and continue manager or you.

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<v Speaker 4>Want the Labor Party supported by the Greens and a

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<v Speaker 4>cavalcade of independence where you are inviting chaos and weakness.

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<v Speaker 1>A strong economy, and.

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<v Speaker 2>The electorate said sure we will, We'll do it anyway.

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<v Speaker 2>Neither of the major party leaders would be making their

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<v Speaker 2>best case for reelection if they're blaming the electorate for

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<v Speaker 2>the very low primary votes on both sides at the

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<v Speaker 2>last election. There was a primary vote swing against Labor

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<v Speaker 2>and a primary vote swing against the coalition. Coalition losing

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<v Speaker 2>a landslide Labor just creep over the line. You've got

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<v Speaker 2>a very vulnerable government on arrival.

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<v Speaker 1>Because the Alberdezer government as we see there only has

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<v Speaker 1>two seats.

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<v Speaker 2>Two seats to play with. I mean they picked up

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<v Speaker 2>Aston in the outer east of Melbourne at a by

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<v Speaker 2>election in twenty twenty three, and then promptly lost the

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<v Speaker 2>cutos from that because Peter Dutton then decides to go

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<v Speaker 2>hard on the referendum and before you know, the electritory

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<v Speaker 2>polarized around that issue.

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<v Speaker 1>And you've been looking into that, What do the Voice

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<v Speaker 1>results tell us about how the electorate has changed? What

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<v Speaker 1>did you find?

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<v Speaker 2>So this is a bit of a surprise because I

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<v Speaker 2>think the nation was a bit stunned. Now you'd recall

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<v Speaker 2>all the way to about August the national vote was

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<v Speaker 2>tracking just above fifty percent, but the composition of that

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<v Speaker 2>bare majority was interesting. So Aboriginal tor Austrade Islanders are

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<v Speaker 2>in the seventies and the eighties very very high support

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<v Speaker 2>for the Voice. The next strongest group were non English

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<v Speaker 2>speakers so New Australia, so New Australia and First Australians

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<v Speaker 2>were essentially the grand alliance for the Voice. Where that

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<v Speaker 2>majority lasts up until that final quarter of the of

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<v Speaker 2>the referendum when the disinformation campaign really hit art. In

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<v Speaker 2>micrant communities, there's been shrinking in the progressive zones of

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<v Speaker 2>the major capitals, our inner cities in Melbourne and Sydney,

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<v Speaker 2>been the case in Canberra for a while now, also

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<v Speaker 2>in parts of Brisbane are actually getting whiter through gentrification.

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<v Speaker 2>All the Urban cross Bench, all of it, every single

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<v Speaker 2>one of them except for Fowler, So Fowler is a

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<v Speaker 2>direly independent in Western Sydney. All the others, so the Teales,

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<v Speaker 2>the Greens and Andrew Wilkie, all of them vote yes

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<v Speaker 2>for the Voice, all of them. And the problem for

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<v Speaker 2>Peter Dutton looking for a majority Liberal National Coalition government

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<v Speaker 2>at the next election is that he's pretty much taken

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<v Speaker 2>those ten seats off the board. That's obviously not where

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<v Speaker 2>he's looking to get back to. Powry's looking at the

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<v Speaker 2>outer suburbs, where the further he got out of the CBD,

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<v Speaker 2>the lower the yes vote.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up after the break was Julia Gillard's minority government.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell us about what's ahead. So, George, I want to

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<v Speaker 1>ask you about the twenty ten election, which was the

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<v Speaker 1>last time Australia had a minority government. Can you tell

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<v Speaker 1>me about how the government worked in terms of implementing

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<v Speaker 1>its agenda and whether it was effective.

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<v Speaker 2>If you were to say minority government in Australia, what

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<v Speaker 2>would it look like if it would function, it would

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<v Speaker 2>be a government that had a little bit of the

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<v Speaker 2>rest of the country. That didn't belong to it. So

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<v Speaker 2>you had a couple of regional mp sociding with a

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<v Speaker 2>Labor government.

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<v Speaker 3>Labor linked to the magic number of seventy six with

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<v Speaker 3>a backing of just two of the three Country independents,

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<v Speaker 3>rob Oke Shot and Tony Winter say they went Julia

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<v Speaker 3>Gillard's way for stability and for country Australia.

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<v Speaker 2>And a Labor government has effectively through its Green sole

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<v Speaker 2>Green member in the Lower House, Adam Bant, was in

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<v Speaker 2>his first term for the electorate of Melbourne, and the

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<v Speaker 2>Greens had the balanced parents set in their own right

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<v Speaker 2>for the first and only time at a federal election.

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<v Speaker 2>That parliament is stable minority government. But it's a stable

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<v Speaker 2>parliament and of course was able to legislate. It was

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<v Speaker 2>able to legislate a price on carbon.

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<v Speaker 4>The science is clear our planet is warming, that warming

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<v Speaker 4>is caused by carbon pollution, by human activity, and we

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<v Speaker 4>need to cut carbon pollution.

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<v Speaker 2>It was able to introduce the NDAs.

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<v Speaker 4>The reason we're so determined to deliver a National Disability

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<v Speaker 4>Insurance scheme is we want to make a difference for

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<v Speaker 4>the lives of four hundred and ten thousand Australians who

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<v Speaker 4>have serious disabilities.

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<v Speaker 2>So that parliament worked, and it was one of those

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<v Speaker 2>hung parliaments where there's a handful of cross benches, only

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<v Speaker 2>five of them. There were sixteen at the last election.

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<v Speaker 2>We didn't get a hung parliament. But I don't think

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<v Speaker 2>the parliament the way it's functioned in this term has

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<v Speaker 2>behaved like a parliament that has had a certain force

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<v Speaker 2>projected onto it, which is a progressive force. The parliament

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<v Speaker 2>has behaved like a geopoly. You still hear Peter Dutton's voice,

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<v Speaker 2>even though the coalition numbers on the floor of the

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<v Speaker 2>House of Representatives are the smallest as a share of

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<v Speaker 2>the parliament ever for the modern Liberal Party. The Liberal

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<v Speaker 2>Party itself is the minority party in the coalition. So

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<v Speaker 2>two thirds of Austrainers live in the capital cities, so

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<v Speaker 2>why is he the dominant voice the last year and

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<v Speaker 2>a half. So in a way, the system is still

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<v Speaker 2>behaving like a geopoly. And one of the reasons why

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<v Speaker 2>that is happening is weirdly Labour has a narrow majority,

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't control the Senate and the tials, which are the

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<v Speaker 2>party or the grouping that can drag the Liberal Party

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<v Speaker 2>back to the center, because it now holds seats that

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<v Speaker 2>were atritional liberal seats.

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<v Speaker 1>And the capitals.

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<v Speaker 2>They don't really have the balance of power.

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<v Speaker 1>Yet, right, So the twenty ten Hung Parliament had a

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<v Speaker 1>cross bench that was mostly a handful of rural seats.

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<v Speaker 1>A future minority government will have a broad cross bench

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<v Speaker 1>made up considerably of tials inner city electorates. So how

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<v Speaker 1>different is the hypothetical twenty twenty five Hung parliament going

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<v Speaker 1>to be from twenty ten in practice?

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<v Speaker 3>Yes.

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<v Speaker 2>One of the things I've been thinking about is what

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<v Speaker 2>does a Hung parliament look like in terms of who

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<v Speaker 2>you hear every day in a political debate. So in

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<v Speaker 2>twenty ten you heard Gillard and Abbott, but especially Abbot.

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<v Speaker 2>The next tongue parliament with a much deeper cross bench

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<v Speaker 2>that's more send it in capital cities. So you've got

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<v Speaker 2>sixteen and of that sixteen, a good dozen in the

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<v Speaker 2>capital cities. That cross bench cooperating, pushing against, arguing with

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<v Speaker 2>a labor government. You're going to mark the success of

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<v Speaker 2>that minority government terms of what it gets through. Are

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<v Speaker 2>you going to hear the opposition leader at that point?

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<v Speaker 2>And I think this is almost the unknowable, but part

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<v Speaker 2>of me thinks that another election with the Liberals too

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<v Speaker 2>far away from majority government. You know, that's the electric

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<v Speaker 2>saying it twice to them, which is we've kicked her

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<v Speaker 2>out of the cities for a reason. They obviously think

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<v Speaker 2>that there's another majority forming somewhere. They think there's a

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<v Speaker 2>realignment forming in the outer suburbs, which means that they

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<v Speaker 2>don't need to worry about the inner city. But they

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<v Speaker 2>did have a post election report which Arthur Sinad Ernest

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<v Speaker 2>and Joan Hume co wrote which warned them that there's

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<v Speaker 2>no credible path back to power from the regions.

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<v Speaker 1>Alione.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, the worst case scenario, even if the lower House

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<v Speaker 2>looks relatively functional, is that there's incentives after the election,

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<v Speaker 2>both in the lower House and especially in the Senate,

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<v Speaker 2>for major party members to term themselves in independence. Five

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<v Speaker 2>senators since the last election changed starts already.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that all? And it's a mess up there anyway.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, there'll be a few of them will get the

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<v Speaker 2>temptation to go silo.

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<v Speaker 1>So, George, it sounds like you're pretty convinced that the

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<v Speaker 1>two party system is over. So if that's the case,

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<v Speaker 1>what do you think about that personally? How do you

0:12:35.559 --> 0:12:39.280
<v Speaker 1>think it's going to serve voters as we move forward? Yeah.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, whilst I'm probably not as terrified of a hung

0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:46.000
<v Speaker 2>Parliament this time around, I think in the long run

0:12:46.200 --> 0:12:49.600
<v Speaker 2>do you need to have a contest around the Senate

0:12:49.640 --> 0:12:53.240
<v Speaker 2>in Australia, so you need two very very strong major parties.

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<v Speaker 2>So I don't think in the long run this is

0:12:55.840 --> 0:12:58.040
<v Speaker 2>a good thing. It's good to give them a lookick

0:12:58.080 --> 0:13:02.000
<v Speaker 2>up the backside. I mean maybe if Australia gets used

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<v Speaker 2>to the idea of minority government and that functions, the

0:13:06.240 --> 0:13:09.199
<v Speaker 2>opposition is muted in this period because Australians don't want

0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:12.160
<v Speaker 2>to hear from the side that lost. I'd still like

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<v Speaker 2>to see a system where the majors can agree on

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<v Speaker 2>the problems we want to solve them, then have an

0:13:16.520 --> 0:13:18.839
<v Speaker 2>argument about the best way to solve them. At the moment,

0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:22.280
<v Speaker 2>we're in this kind of half world where a clue

0:13:22.240 --> 0:13:24.520
<v Speaker 2>has some big problems out there, but one side is

0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:26.559
<v Speaker 2>in denial on some and the other side is sort

0:13:26.600 --> 0:13:28.760
<v Speaker 2>of two week to lead on them. And that's not

0:13:28.920 --> 0:13:31.520
<v Speaker 2>where you want to be as a country.

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<v Speaker 1>George, thanks so much for your time.

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<v Speaker 2>Really appreciate it. Thank you, Daniel.

0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:42.360
<v Speaker 1>George Medalagenis's courtly essay Minority Report is out now It's

0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:53.280
<v Speaker 1>a fascinating read and I highly recommend it. Also in

0:13:53.320 --> 0:13:56.800
<v Speaker 1>the news today, New South Wales Premier Chris Means has

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<v Speaker 1>called an ikak referral against him outrageous and not supported

0:14:00.880 --> 0:14:04.520
<v Speaker 1>by the facts. Newsbroke on Wednesday that a parliamentary committee

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<v Speaker 1>looking into government plans to develop Rosehill Racecourse into twenty

0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:11.280
<v Speaker 1>five thousand homes would be referred to the State corruption

0:14:11.440 --> 0:14:15.560
<v Speaker 1>watchdog when the report is released on Friday. The inquiry

0:14:15.600 --> 0:14:19.200
<v Speaker 1>will allege that Men's friendship with racecourse owner Steve McMahon

0:14:19.440 --> 0:14:22.480
<v Speaker 1>is a conflict of interest and bitcoin is at an

0:14:22.520 --> 0:14:26.400
<v Speaker 1>all time high worth US one hundred thousand dollars per bitcoin.

0:14:26.840 --> 0:14:30.040
<v Speaker 1>That's around one hundred and fifty five thousand Australian dollars

0:14:30.080 --> 0:14:33.760
<v Speaker 1>for a single bitcoin. Since election day, the value of

0:14:33.800 --> 0:14:37.360
<v Speaker 1>bitcoin has grown forty five percent. Meanwhile, the value of

0:14:37.360 --> 0:14:39.840
<v Speaker 1>the Australian dollar has slumped in the face of slower

0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:44.920
<v Speaker 1>GDP growth than expected. Seven Am is a daily show

0:14:44.960 --> 0:14:47.920
<v Speaker 1>from Schwartz Media and The Saturday Paper. It's made by

0:14:47.920 --> 0:14:53.760
<v Speaker 1>Atticus Bastow, Shane Anderson, Chris Dangate, Zolten, Vetcho, Travis Evans,

0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:59.200
<v Speaker 1>Sarah mcveee, Ruby Jones, and myself Daniel James. We'll be

0:14:59.240 --> 0:15:03.680
<v Speaker 1>back on Monday, m