WEBVTT - Is Biden done?

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<v Speaker 1>You can listen to the Front on your smart speaker

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<v Speaker 1>the news from the Australian. From the Australian, here's what's

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<v Speaker 1>on the Front. I'm Claire Harvey. It's Thursday, July fourth.

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<v Speaker 1>An epidemic of diabetes threatens to send Australia's life expectancy

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<v Speaker 1>rate into reverse. That's the finding of a Parliamentary Health

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<v Speaker 1>committee which has found seventy percent of adults in some

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<v Speaker 1>communities have Type two diabetes. Religious groups, the Coalition and

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<v Speaker 1>the Greens have found something in common. They all want

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<v Speaker 1>to know if Anthony Albanesi will deliver on long promised

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<v Speaker 1>reforms to religious discrimination laws. That story is live now

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<v Speaker 1>at the Australian dot com dot a. You will Joe

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<v Speaker 1>Biden step aside and could he really hand the presidency

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<v Speaker 1>to Krmala Harris. Today, our chief international correspondent, Cameron Stewart

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<v Speaker 1>sorts the panic from the probabilities. It's the fourth of

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<v Speaker 1>July in the United States, the two hundred and forty

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<v Speaker 1>eighth anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. Barda's Americans gather

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<v Speaker 1>for hot dogs and fireworks like Macy's famous New York spectacular.

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<v Speaker 2>Mus the dances in Ustry.

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<v Speaker 1>Their glorious democracy looks a little tatty with mounting speculation

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<v Speaker 1>President Joe Biden will step aside to avoid handing the

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<v Speaker 1>country back to Donald Trump. More Democrats seem to be

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<v Speaker 1>getting cold feet over President Biden's re election campaign after

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<v Speaker 1>that disastrous.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, A large and increasing group of House Democrats concerned

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<v Speaker 3>about the President's candidacy.

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<v Speaker 1>As Biden's own team digs in, he.

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<v Speaker 2>Understands that he's not a young man, obviously he said this,

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<v Speaker 2>but his focus.

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<v Speaker 1>Is going to continue to deliver for the American people.

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<v Speaker 1>Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent. Cameron, for

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<v Speaker 1>a long time in US politics, we've had people engaging

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<v Speaker 1>in wishful thinking. Will this be the end of Donald Trump?

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<v Speaker 1>Is this a turning point for this? All that campaign

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<v Speaker 1>and now we're at a moment where a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>people are talking about Joe Biden potentially pulling out of

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<v Speaker 1>this presidential race after his disastrous debate performance. Is this

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<v Speaker 1>more wishful thinking or is this real?

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<v Speaker 3>I think this is more than wishful thinking. I think

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<v Speaker 3>this is really its pin points in American politics in

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<v Speaker 3>a way that we haven't seen before. There was such

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<v Speaker 3>alarm within Democrat ranks about Joe Biden's performance that some

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<v Speaker 3>people are now coming out publicly Democrat congressmen and calling

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<v Speaker 3>on him to step aside. The liberal learning the US media,

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<v Speaker 3>which have been very, very supportive of Joe Biden all

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<v Speaker 3>the way through, calling on him to either go in

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<v Speaker 3>the case of the New York Times, or reconsider his

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<v Speaker 3>position in the case of the Washington Post. That is

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<v Speaker 3>very big stuff from the Democrat side, Who've got old

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<v Speaker 3>campaign strategists like James Carvill who managed Bill Clinton's noted

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<v Speaker 3>only two election campaign, calling on Biden to step aside.

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<v Speaker 3>These are very big voices. Give the people what they want.

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<v Speaker 1>Bock popular that they want something.

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<v Speaker 3>Different, and so it's far more than just a politics

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<v Speaker 3>as usual it was a bad week kind of attitude,

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<v Speaker 3>which is what Joe Biden's camp is really saying. The

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<v Speaker 3>heavy hitters in the Democratic Party, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama

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<v Speaker 3>have come out publicly and backed Joe Biden. Nancy Pelosi

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<v Speaker 3>has been a little less enthusiastic, but nevertheless has still

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<v Speaker 3>backed him.

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<v Speaker 1>He has a bad name now again.

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<v Speaker 3>I think it's a legitimate question to say, is this

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<v Speaker 3>an episode or is this a condition? And you'd expect that,

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<v Speaker 3>And of course the White House team is saying, look

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<v Speaker 3>at which a bad day, he had jet lag, he

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<v Speaker 3>had a cold. Depending on what Dad is, they've got

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<v Speaker 3>a different excuse. But the bottom line, Claire, is that

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<v Speaker 3>fifty million Americans saw this performance, and any Australians who

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<v Speaker 3>saw it would see with their own eyes how much

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<v Speaker 3>of a decline Joe Biden has suffered over the past

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<v Speaker 3>four years.

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<v Speaker 4>With dealing with you have to do with what if

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<v Speaker 4>we finally beat medicare? Thank you President Biden.

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump, Well, he's ready.

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<v Speaker 4>He did beat Medicare.

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<v Speaker 3>He beat it to death. And I think this is

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<v Speaker 3>really a very serious issue. I don't think it is

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<v Speaker 3>something that would just come and go. I think the

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<v Speaker 3>Democratic Party are really seriously considering whether Joe Biden will

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<v Speaker 3>step up and be the contender or whether he should

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<v Speaker 3>step aside.

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<v Speaker 1>There was a lot of criticism that Joe Biden was

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<v Speaker 1>too old when he first ran for the presidency in

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty, cam but when you look back at the

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<v Speaker 1>twenty twenty debates that he had with Donald Trump, this

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<v Speaker 1>is the.

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<v Speaker 4>Guy who's tried to cut Medicare. So I don't I

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<v Speaker 4>mean the idea that Donald Trump is luxuring me on

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<v Speaker 4>Social Security and Medicare.

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<v Speaker 3>Come on, he tried to get rid of he tried

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<v Speaker 3>to hurt social Security.

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<v Speaker 1>He seemed like a fairly robust, quite normal, chatty seventy

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<v Speaker 1>seven year old, a year younger incidentally than Donald Trump is. Now,

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<v Speaker 1>what do you think about that? Did that make a

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<v Speaker 1>mistake in choosing him in the first place? Was he

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<v Speaker 1>too old back in twenty twenty, No.

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<v Speaker 3>I definitely don't think he was. He was, as he said,

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<v Speaker 3>a much more robust performance. He has declined very much

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<v Speaker 3>in office, as some people simply do it. At that age,

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<v Speaker 3>he was the perfect candidate almost for Donald Trump, because Trump,

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<v Speaker 3>of course, he's famously erratic and volatile, and he'd had

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<v Speaker 3>a very volatile presidency, and Americans were just looking for

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<v Speaker 3>someone calm, experienced and boring, even really, and it did

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<v Speaker 3>beat Donald Trump fairly convincingly. And for Joe Biden that's

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<v Speaker 3>been a massive matter of pride, the fact that he

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<v Speaker 3>was the one who got rid of Donald Trump. Is

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<v Speaker 3>a Democrat hero. But now he faces the very galling

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<v Speaker 3>prospect for him of staying too long and actually being

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<v Speaker 3>the one potentially if he miscalculates here, who delivers the

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<v Speaker 3>White House back to Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>There has never been a president who's stood aside or

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<v Speaker 1>resigned because of illness, but there have been presidents who've

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<v Speaker 1>had serious things happened to them and serious disabilities that

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<v Speaker 1>they've lived with while in office. Woodrow Wilson, the Democratic

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<v Speaker 1>president in the nineteen teens, suffered a stroke while in

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<v Speaker 1>office and then didn't stand at the next election. Franklin

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<v Speaker 1>Delano Roosevelt suffered polio and was quite severely disabled, but

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<v Speaker 1>this was concealed from the American public because he wanted

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<v Speaker 1>to project an image of being physically robust. How significant

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<v Speaker 1>would it be if Joe Biden really did admit that

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<v Speaker 1>he is incapacitated now?

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<v Speaker 3>It would be huge. Really, Joe Biden, understandably is a

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<v Speaker 3>very proud man. It's not really like him to step aside,

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<v Speaker 3>so I think it would be a massive decision on

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<v Speaker 3>his part to do so. Firstly, Secondly, think of the

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<v Speaker 3>timing here. We've only got four months to the presidential election.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think any president has stood aside so close

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<v Speaker 3>to an actual election, and it's for aging slash mental

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<v Speaker 3>health reasons that he would be stepping aside again. We

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<v Speaker 3>haven't seen that again in a presidency. I think it

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<v Speaker 3>would be very, very humbling for Joe Biden to fearly

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<v Speaker 3>had to step aside at this minute. But politics changes

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<v Speaker 3>so quickly here, Claire, at the moment, I think you

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<v Speaker 3>can say it's a very finely balanced debate as to

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<v Speaker 3>whether Joe Biden stays. Certainly the mainstream of the Democratic

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<v Speaker 3>Party are trying to persuade people that he will stay.

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<v Speaker 3>Joe Biden and his family seem to want to want

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<v Speaker 3>him to stay. But politics can change so quickly here.

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<v Speaker 3>I think all we need to see is a couple

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<v Speaker 3>of opinion polls that see that Joe Biden has plummeted

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<v Speaker 3>in the fight against Donald Trump, and I think you

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<v Speaker 3>will see the Democratic Party suddenly develop far sharper teeth overnight.

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<v Speaker 1>So what happens if that is the case. Does it

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<v Speaker 1>fall to Kamala Harris?

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<v Speaker 3>That's a great question. The general consensus thinking would be

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<v Speaker 3>that Joe Biden would effectively say I'm not running again,

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<v Speaker 3>and he'd throw the field open. What he would do

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<v Speaker 3>is he'd release the convention candidates who are supposed to

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<v Speaker 3>vote for him at the party's convention in August, and

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<v Speaker 3>there would be an open contest between whoever wanted to

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<v Speaker 3>contest the ballot. But that may not be the case.

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<v Speaker 3>He may, for example, say I'm stepping aside, but I

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<v Speaker 3>put my support behind my vice president Kamala Harris. He

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<v Speaker 3>could even do something radical, as in resign the presidency

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<v Speaker 3>and give the presidency to Kamala Harris.

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<v Speaker 1>What's your take on Kamala Harris. She's widely mocked from

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<v Speaker 1>the right of politics, and here she is rewriting the

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<v Speaker 1>history about this is her being an empowered woman.

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<v Speaker 2>Don't ever carry as a personal burden your capacity to

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<v Speaker 2>do whatever you dream an aspire to do based on

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<v Speaker 2>other people's limited ability to see who can do what?

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<v Speaker 1>She kind of seems to tick quite a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>woke boxes. Is she as much of a daughter as

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<v Speaker 1>she's made out to be?

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<v Speaker 3>Look, that's a good question. I think she's got some

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<v Speaker 3>fairly unfair press as vice president because vice presidents don't

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<v Speaker 3>really do much. They're never really particularly good or particularly bad. Frankly,

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<v Speaker 3>it's very hard to define their role. However, we should

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<v Speaker 3>remember that Kamala Harris was a very poor campaigner in

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<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm not a billionaire.

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<v Speaker 2>I can't fund my own campaign, and as the campaign

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<v Speaker 2>has gone on, it has become harder and harder to

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<v Speaker 2>raise the money we need to compete.

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<v Speaker 3>The other thing about Kamala Harris is while she is

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<v Speaker 3>very accomplished, she's not a popular person in the Midwest

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<v Speaker 3>and the key states in the Midwest. The big city

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<v Speaker 3>Democrats in America love Carmelo because she's a woman of color,

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<v Speaker 3>very highly achieved, a prosecutor, et cetera, et cetera. They're

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<v Speaker 3>the reasons that people in the Midwest a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>voters don't particularly like her.

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<v Speaker 1>So if not Karmala, then who.

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<v Speaker 3>There were two standards. Gavin News from the governor of California,

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<v Speaker 3>He's very popular in California. He's a rather, he's straight

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<v Speaker 3>from Central Casting with straight white teeth. He's the old

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<v Speaker 3>style candidate.

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<v Speaker 4>If you like you, don't turn your back.

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<v Speaker 1>You go home with the one that brought you to

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<v Speaker 1>the dance.

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<v Speaker 4>One hundred percent all in, I.

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<v Speaker 3>Think the Democrats would have a bit of a problem

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<v Speaker 3>given their ethos, to be replacing a woman of color

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<v Speaker 3>with a white male from the same state. I think

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<v Speaker 3>that would be a tricky one for them to argue.

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<v Speaker 3>The other one is Gretchen Whitmer, who is the governor

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<v Speaker 3>of Michigan. She's a really tough cookie.

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<v Speaker 1>None of what she just said is true, and here's

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<v Speaker 1>why you can't trust anything she's saying when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to reproductive rates.

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<v Speaker 3>She's stood up against a lot of the Trump extremists,

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<v Speaker 3>if you like. In her stage she's under a kidnap

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<v Speaker 3>plot at one stage. She's very popular in Michigan, which

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<v Speaker 3>of course is a key swing state. She might be

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<v Speaker 3>quite a good contender. The person when I was traveling

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<v Speaker 3>through the Bibs covering the election last time who impressed

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<v Speaker 3>me the most was Pete Budajeedge, who is the Transport Minister.

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<v Speaker 2>Joe Biden's presidency has been among the most productive and

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<v Speaker 2>successful in American history.

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<v Speaker 3>I think he would be a candidate as well. The

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<v Speaker 3>issue for him might be he is gay and will

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<v Speaker 3>be American electorate, especially African Americans, be okay with that.

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<v Speaker 1>You were in the United States as I correspondent for

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<v Speaker 1>the rise and then the fall, even if it's not

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<v Speaker 1>a permanent fall of Donald Trump in twenty twenty. What's

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<v Speaker 1>your sense in your waters now? Cam do you feel

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<v Speaker 1>like the momentum is on for Trump. He seems like

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<v Speaker 1>a much more disciplined performer. Certainly judging by that last debate.

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<v Speaker 3>Now well, that was one of Trump's best performances because

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<v Speaker 3>he didn't lose his temper, he didn't rant and rave,

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<v Speaker 3>he kept himself quite composed. The question for Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 3>is can he win the middle ground that he lost

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<v Speaker 3>in twenty twenty and again in those midterms as well.

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<v Speaker 3>He lost them there. At this point in time, his

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<v Speaker 3>biggest advantage is simply the disarray within the Democrats over Biden, etc.

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<v Speaker 3>He might be the Steve Bradbury kind of presidential winner

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<v Speaker 3>here for Democrats just fall over amongst themselves because they

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<v Speaker 3>don't know who should actually leave the party to the

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<v Speaker 3>next election. So I think that's Donald Trump's biggest.

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<v Speaker 1>Chance coming up is Donald Trump on a winning streak.

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<v Speaker 1>There's a UK election in the offing too, with voters

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<v Speaker 1>likely to sweep the Tories from power. We'll have all

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<v Speaker 1>the latest live night and day at the Australian dot

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<v Speaker 1>com dot au and we'll be back in just a moment, Cameron.

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump's had two significant wins in the past two days.

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<v Speaker 1>One is that he's sentencing over his conviction for hush

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<v Speaker 1>money payments has been delayed until September. The other is

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<v Speaker 1>that the US Supreme Court has found in the broad

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<v Speaker 1>that presidents can't be held accountable for acts that they

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<v Speaker 1>committed while in office. What's your sense of those two

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<v Speaker 1>rulings and what they'll mean for Trump.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, they're both good news for Donald Trump. And the

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<v Speaker 3>sentencing for his hush money trial is good and bad

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<v Speaker 3>in the sense that it's a relief for him that

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<v Speaker 3>he won't potentially be jailed for the actual Republican convention,

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<v Speaker 3>which is only in about two weeks time, and the

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<v Speaker 3>sensing was going to happen about four days before that

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<v Speaker 3>actual convention. That's been the late or September. But then,

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<v Speaker 3>of course that does mean that's quite close to the election,

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<v Speaker 3>so there is a potential for that to backfire. The

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<v Speaker 3>other one, of course, is the Supreme Court ruling. Basically,

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<v Speaker 3>it's a fairly mixed ruling, but it says that the

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<v Speaker 3>president is entitled to a presumptive immunity for a prosecution

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<v Speaker 3>for his official acts as opposed to his unofficial acts.

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<v Speaker 3>This does make it more difficult to prosecute a president

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<v Speaker 3>for the acts he took in office, so that definitely

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<v Speaker 3>helps Donald Trump. It's not a blanket ruling. Certainly he

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<v Speaker 3>could still be prosecuted for the so called unofficial acts,

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<v Speaker 3>but you can imagine the sort of legal arguments that

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<v Speaker 3>would go on to determine which is official, which is unofficial.

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<v Speaker 3>The big picture here, Claire, is that with every single

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<v Speaker 3>month of it goes on, Donald Trump's various trials that

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<v Speaker 3>are coming up either get delayed or changed, or aspects

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<v Speaker 3>of them get altered, and it is increasingly unlikely I

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<v Speaker 3>think that any of his legal issues will actually really

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<v Speaker 3>be an impediment to him running for president in November

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<v Speaker 3>and potentially winning.

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<v Speaker 1>Karen Stewart is The Australian's chief international correspondent. If Joe

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<v Speaker 1>Biden does throw in the towel, the Australian subscribers will

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<v Speaker 1>be the first to know. Join us at the Australian

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<v Speaker 1>dot com dot a yu