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Speaker 1: You can listen to the Front on your smart speaker

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Speaker 1: every morning to hear the latest episode. Just say play

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Speaker 1: the news from the Australian. From the Australian, here's what's

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Speaker 1: on the Front. I'm Claire Harvey. It's Thursday, July fourth.

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Speaker 1: An epidemic of diabetes threatens to send Australia's life expectancy

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Speaker 1: rate into reverse. That's the finding of a Parliamentary Health

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Speaker 1: committee which has found seventy percent of adults in some

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Speaker 1: communities have Type two diabetes. Religious groups, the Coalition and

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Speaker 1: the Greens have found something in common. They all want

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Speaker 1: to know if Anthony Albanesi will deliver on long promised

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Speaker 1: reforms to religious discrimination laws. That story is live now

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Speaker 1: at the Australian dot com dot a. You will Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden step aside and could he really hand the presidency

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Speaker 1: to Krmala Harris. Today, our chief international correspondent, Cameron Stewart

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Speaker 1: sorts the panic from the probabilities. It's the fourth of

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Speaker 1: July in the United States, the two hundred and forty

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Speaker 1: eighth anniversary of the Declaration of Independence. Barda's Americans gather

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Speaker 1: for hot dogs and fireworks like Macy's famous New York spectacular.

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Speaker 2: Mus the dances in Ustry.

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Speaker 1: Their glorious democracy looks a little tatty with mounting speculation

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Speaker 1: President Joe Biden will step aside to avoid handing the

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Speaker 1: country back to Donald Trump. More Democrats seem to be

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Speaker 1: getting cold feet over President Biden's re election campaign after

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Speaker 1: that disastrous.

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Speaker 3: Well, A large and increasing group of House Democrats concerned

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Speaker 3: about the President's candidacy.

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Speaker 1: As Biden's own team digs in, he.

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Speaker 2: Understands that he's not a young man, obviously he said this,

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Speaker 2: but his focus.

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Speaker 1: Is going to continue to deliver for the American people.

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Speaker 1: Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent. Cameron, for

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Speaker 1: a long time in US politics, we've had people engaging

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Speaker 1: in wishful thinking. Will this be the end of Donald Trump?

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Speaker 1: Is this a turning point for this? All that campaign

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Speaker 1: and now we're at a moment where a lot of

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Speaker 1: people are talking about Joe Biden potentially pulling out of

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Speaker 1: this presidential race after his disastrous debate performance. Is this

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Speaker 1: more wishful thinking or is this real?

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Speaker 3: I think this is more than wishful thinking. I think

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Speaker 3: this is really its pin points in American politics in

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Speaker 3: a way that we haven't seen before. There was such

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Speaker 3: alarm within Democrat ranks about Joe Biden's performance that some

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Speaker 3: people are now coming out publicly Democrat congressmen and calling

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Speaker 3: on him to step aside. The liberal learning the US media,

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Speaker 3: which have been very, very supportive of Joe Biden all

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Speaker 3: the way through, calling on him to either go in

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Speaker 3: the case of the New York Times, or reconsider his

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Speaker 3: position in the case of the Washington Post. That is

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Speaker 3: very big stuff from the Democrat side, Who've got old

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Speaker 3: campaign strategists like James Carvill who managed Bill Clinton's noted

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Speaker 3: only two election campaign, calling on Biden to step aside.

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Speaker 3: These are very big voices. Give the people what they want.

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Speaker 1: Bock popular that they want something.

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Speaker 3: Different, and so it's far more than just a politics

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Speaker 3: as usual it was a bad week kind of attitude,

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Speaker 3: which is what Joe Biden's camp is really saying. The

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Speaker 3: heavy hitters in the Democratic Party, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama

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Speaker 3: have come out publicly and backed Joe Biden. Nancy Pelosi

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Speaker 3: has been a little less enthusiastic, but nevertheless has still

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Speaker 3: backed him.

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Speaker 1: He has a bad name now again.

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Speaker 3: I think it's a legitimate question to say, is this

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Speaker 3: an episode or is this a condition? And you'd expect that,

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Speaker 3: And of course the White House team is saying, look

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Speaker 3: at which a bad day, he had jet lag, he

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Speaker 3: had a cold. Depending on what Dad is, they've got

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Speaker 3: a different excuse. But the bottom line, Claire, is that

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Speaker 3: fifty million Americans saw this performance, and any Australians who

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Speaker 3: saw it would see with their own eyes how much

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Speaker 3: of a decline Joe Biden has suffered over the past

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Speaker 3: four years.

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Speaker 4: With dealing with you have to do with what if

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Speaker 4: we finally beat medicare? Thank you President Biden.

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Speaker 2: President Trump, Well, he's ready.

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Speaker 4: He did beat Medicare.

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Speaker 3: He beat it to death. And I think this is

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Speaker 3: really a very serious issue. I don't think it is

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Speaker 3: something that would just come and go. I think the

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Speaker 3: Democratic Party are really seriously considering whether Joe Biden will

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Speaker 3: step up and be the contender or whether he should

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Speaker 3: step aside.

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Speaker 1: There was a lot of criticism that Joe Biden was

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Speaker 1: too old when he first ran for the presidency in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty, cam but when you look back at the

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty debates that he had with Donald Trump, this

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Speaker 1: is the.

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Speaker 4: Guy who's tried to cut Medicare. So I don't I

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Speaker 4: mean the idea that Donald Trump is luxuring me on

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Speaker 4: Social Security and Medicare.

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Speaker 3: Come on, he tried to get rid of he tried

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Speaker 3: to hurt social Security.

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Speaker 1: He seemed like a fairly robust, quite normal, chatty seventy

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Speaker 1: seven year old, a year younger incidentally than Donald Trump is. Now,

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Speaker 1: what do you think about that? Did that make a

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Speaker 1: mistake in choosing him in the first place? Was he

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Speaker 1: too old back in twenty twenty, No.

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Speaker 3: I definitely don't think he was. He was, as he said,

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Speaker 3: a much more robust performance. He has declined very much

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Speaker 3: in office, as some people simply do it. At that age,

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Speaker 3: he was the perfect candidate almost for Donald Trump, because Trump,

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Speaker 3: of course, he's famously erratic and volatile, and he'd had

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Speaker 3: a very volatile presidency, and Americans were just looking for

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Speaker 3: someone calm, experienced and boring, even really, and it did

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Speaker 3: beat Donald Trump fairly convincingly. And for Joe Biden that's

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Speaker 3: been a massive matter of pride, the fact that he

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Speaker 3: was the one who got rid of Donald Trump. Is

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Speaker 3: a Democrat hero. But now he faces the very galling

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Speaker 3: prospect for him of staying too long and actually being

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Speaker 3: the one potentially if he miscalculates here, who delivers the

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Speaker 3: White House back to Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: There has never been a president who's stood aside or

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Speaker 1: resigned because of illness, but there have been presidents who've

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Speaker 1: had serious things happened to them and serious disabilities that

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Speaker 1: they've lived with while in office. Woodrow Wilson, the Democratic

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Speaker 1: president in the nineteen teens, suffered a stroke while in

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Speaker 1: office and then didn't stand at the next election. Franklin

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Speaker 1: Delano Roosevelt suffered polio and was quite severely disabled, but

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Speaker 1: this was concealed from the American public because he wanted

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Speaker 1: to project an image of being physically robust. How significant

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Speaker 1: would it be if Joe Biden really did admit that

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Speaker 1: he is incapacitated now?

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Speaker 3: It would be huge. Really, Joe Biden, understandably is a

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Speaker 3: very proud man. It's not really like him to step aside,

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Speaker 3: so I think it would be a massive decision on

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Speaker 3: his part to do so. Firstly, Secondly, think of the

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Speaker 3: timing here. We've only got four months to the presidential election.

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Speaker 3: I don't think any president has stood aside so close

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Speaker 3: to an actual election, and it's for aging slash mental

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Speaker 3: health reasons that he would be stepping aside again. We

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Speaker 3: haven't seen that again in a presidency. I think it

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Speaker 3: would be very, very humbling for Joe Biden to fearly

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Speaker 3: had to step aside at this minute. But politics changes

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Speaker 3: so quickly here, Claire, at the moment, I think you

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Speaker 3: can say it's a very finely balanced debate as to

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Speaker 3: whether Joe Biden stays. Certainly the mainstream of the Democratic

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Speaker 3: Party are trying to persuade people that he will stay.

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Speaker 3: Joe Biden and his family seem to want to want

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Speaker 3: him to stay. But politics can change so quickly here.

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Speaker 3: I think all we need to see is a couple

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Speaker 3: of opinion polls that see that Joe Biden has plummeted

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Speaker 3: in the fight against Donald Trump, and I think you

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Speaker 3: will see the Democratic Party suddenly develop far sharper teeth overnight.

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Speaker 1: So what happens if that is the case. Does it

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Speaker 1: fall to Kamala Harris?

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Speaker 3: That's a great question. The general consensus thinking would be

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Speaker 3: that Joe Biden would effectively say I'm not running again,

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Speaker 3: and he'd throw the field open. What he would do

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Speaker 3: is he'd release the convention candidates who are supposed to

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Speaker 3: vote for him at the party's convention in August, and

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Speaker 3: there would be an open contest between whoever wanted to

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Speaker 3: contest the ballot. But that may not be the case.

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Speaker 3: He may, for example, say I'm stepping aside, but I

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Speaker 3: put my support behind my vice president Kamala Harris. He

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Speaker 3: could even do something radical, as in resign the presidency

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Speaker 3: and give the presidency to Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 1: What's your take on Kamala Harris. She's widely mocked from

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Speaker 1: the right of politics, and here she is rewriting the

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Speaker 1: history about this is her being an empowered woman.

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Speaker 2: Don't ever carry as a personal burden your capacity to

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Speaker 2: do whatever you dream an aspire to do based on

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Speaker 2: other people's limited ability to see who can do what?

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Speaker 1: She kind of seems to tick quite a lot of

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Speaker 1: woke boxes. Is she as much of a daughter as

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Speaker 1: she's made out to be?

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Speaker 3: Look, that's a good question. I think she's got some

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Speaker 3: fairly unfair press as vice president because vice presidents don't

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Speaker 3: really do much. They're never really particularly good or particularly bad. Frankly,

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Speaker 3: it's very hard to define their role. However, we should

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Speaker 3: remember that Kamala Harris was a very poor campaigner in

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty.

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Speaker 1: I'm not a billionaire.

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Speaker 2: I can't fund my own campaign, and as the campaign

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Speaker 2: has gone on, it has become harder and harder to

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Speaker 2: raise the money we need to compete.

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Speaker 3: The other thing about Kamala Harris is while she is

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Speaker 3: very accomplished, she's not a popular person in the Midwest

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Speaker 3: and the key states in the Midwest. The big city

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Speaker 3: Democrats in America love Carmelo because she's a woman of color,

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Speaker 3: very highly achieved, a prosecutor, et cetera, et cetera. They're

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Speaker 3: the reasons that people in the Midwest a lot of

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Speaker 3: voters don't particularly like her.

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Speaker 1: So if not Karmala, then who.

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Speaker 3: There were two standards. Gavin News from the governor of California,

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Speaker 3: He's very popular in California. He's a rather, he's straight

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Speaker 3: from Central Casting with straight white teeth. He's the old

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Speaker 3: style candidate.

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Speaker 4: If you like you, don't turn your back.

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Speaker 1: You go home with the one that brought you to

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Speaker 1: the dance.

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Speaker 4: One hundred percent all in, I.

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Speaker 3: Think the Democrats would have a bit of a problem

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Speaker 3: given their ethos, to be replacing a woman of color

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Speaker 3: with a white male from the same state. I think

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Speaker 3: that would be a tricky one for them to argue.

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Speaker 3: The other one is Gretchen Whitmer, who is the governor

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Speaker 3: of Michigan. She's a really tough cookie.

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Speaker 1: None of what she just said is true, and here's

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Speaker 1: why you can't trust anything she's saying when it comes

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Speaker 1: to reproductive rates.

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Speaker 3: She's stood up against a lot of the Trump extremists,

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Speaker 3: if you like. In her stage she's under a kidnap

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Speaker 3: plot at one stage. She's very popular in Michigan, which

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Speaker 3: of course is a key swing state. She might be

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Speaker 3: quite a good contender. The person when I was traveling

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Speaker 3: through the Bibs covering the election last time who impressed

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Speaker 3: me the most was Pete Budajeedge, who is the Transport Minister.

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden's presidency has been among the most productive and

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Speaker 2: successful in American history.

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Speaker 3: I think he would be a candidate as well. The

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Speaker 3: issue for him might be he is gay and will

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Speaker 3: be American electorate, especially African Americans, be okay with that.

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Speaker 1: You were in the United States as I correspondent for

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Speaker 1: the rise and then the fall, even if it's not

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Speaker 1: a permanent fall of Donald Trump in twenty twenty. What's

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Speaker 1: your sense in your waters now? Cam do you feel

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Speaker 1: like the momentum is on for Trump. He seems like

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Speaker 1: a much more disciplined performer. Certainly judging by that last debate.

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Speaker 3: Now well, that was one of Trump's best performances because

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Speaker 3: he didn't lose his temper, he didn't rant and rave,

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Speaker 3: he kept himself quite composed. The question for Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: is can he win the middle ground that he lost

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Speaker 3: in twenty twenty and again in those midterms as well.

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Speaker 3: He lost them there. At this point in time, his

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Speaker 3: biggest advantage is simply the disarray within the Democrats over Biden, etc.

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Speaker 3: He might be the Steve Bradbury kind of presidential winner

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Speaker 3: here for Democrats just fall over amongst themselves because they

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Speaker 3: don't know who should actually leave the party to the

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Speaker 3: next election. So I think that's Donald Trump's biggest.

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Speaker 1: Chance coming up is Donald Trump on a winning streak.

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Speaker 1: There's a UK election in the offing too, with voters

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Speaker 1: likely to sweep the Tories from power. We'll have all

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Speaker 1: the latest live night and day at the Australian dot

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Speaker 1: com dot au and we'll be back in just a moment, Cameron.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump's had two significant wins in the past two days.

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Speaker 1: One is that he's sentencing over his conviction for hush

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Speaker 1: money payments has been delayed until September. The other is

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Speaker 1: that the US Supreme Court has found in the broad

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Speaker 1: that presidents can't be held accountable for acts that they

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Speaker 1: committed while in office. What's your sense of those two

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Speaker 1: rulings and what they'll mean for Trump.

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Speaker 3: Well, they're both good news for Donald Trump. And the

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Speaker 3: sentencing for his hush money trial is good and bad

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Speaker 3: in the sense that it's a relief for him that

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Speaker 3: he won't potentially be jailed for the actual Republican convention,

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Speaker 3: which is only in about two weeks time, and the

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Speaker 3: sensing was going to happen about four days before that

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Speaker 3: actual convention. That's been the late or September. But then,

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Speaker 3: of course that does mean that's quite close to the election,

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Speaker 3: so there is a potential for that to backfire. The

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Speaker 3: other one, of course, is the Supreme Court ruling. Basically,

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Speaker 3: it's a fairly mixed ruling, but it says that the

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Speaker 3: president is entitled to a presumptive immunity for a prosecution

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Speaker 3: for his official acts as opposed to his unofficial acts.

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Speaker 3: This does make it more difficult to prosecute a president

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Speaker 3: for the acts he took in office, so that definitely

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Speaker 3: helps Donald Trump. It's not a blanket ruling. Certainly he

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Speaker 3: could still be prosecuted for the so called unofficial acts,

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Speaker 3: but you can imagine the sort of legal arguments that

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Speaker 3: would go on to determine which is official, which is unofficial.

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Speaker 3: The big picture here, Claire, is that with every single

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Speaker 3: month of it goes on, Donald Trump's various trials that

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Speaker 3: are coming up either get delayed or changed, or aspects

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Speaker 3: of them get altered, and it is increasingly unlikely I

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Speaker 3: think that any of his legal issues will actually really

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Speaker 3: be an impediment to him running for president in November

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Speaker 3: and potentially winning.

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Speaker 1: Karen Stewart is The Australian's chief international correspondent. If Joe

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Speaker 1: Biden does throw in the towel, the Australian subscribers will

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Speaker 1: be the first to know. Join us at the Australian

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Speaker 1: dot com dot a yu