WEBVTT - Australia's China contradiction: AUKUS vs the Pacific

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Ruby Jones and you're listening to seven AM. Australia

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<v Speaker 1>has been everywhere in the Pacific Islands recently, with four

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<v Speaker 1>security agreements underway and a Prime minister turning up for

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<v Speaker 1>signings that didn't eventuate or to keep China's military at

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<v Speaker 1>a distance. At the same time, ORCUS is remaking our

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<v Speaker 1>defense strategy with eight nuclear powered submarines, expanded facilities for

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<v Speaker 1>US forces, and plans for a new East Coast submarine base.

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<v Speaker 1>For some watching on, those two approaches are at odds.

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<v Speaker 1>The diplomacy aims to prevent a Chinese foothold, while ORCUS

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<v Speaker 1>gives them the exact reason why they need one. Today,

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<v Speaker 1>Director of the International Security Program at the Low Institute,

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<v Speaker 1>Sam Rogavin on the contradiction at the heart of Australia's

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<v Speaker 1>Pacific policy and if there's a safer way to defend

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<v Speaker 1>our region. It's Thursday, September twenty five, So Sam, Australia

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<v Speaker 1>is currently working on for security arrangements in the Pacific

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<v Speaker 1>Islands with different nations. So do you mind just laying

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<v Speaker 1>out for me what those arrangements are and why it

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<v Speaker 1>is that we want them.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, Well, I think the four you're referring to her

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<v Speaker 2>with Tavalu, Naru, Vanuatu and now Papua New Guinea. It's

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<v Speaker 2>important to note that for Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea,

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<v Speaker 2>those haven't actually been secured yet. There were some slightly

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<v Speaker 2>embarrassing delays for Prime Minister Albanesi when on both occasions

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<v Speaker 2>he went to both those countries for signing ceremonies and

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<v Speaker 2>then the local governments decided at the last minute that

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<v Speaker 2>they weren't quite ready to agree to the fine printed,

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<v Speaker 2>so the signing ceremonies have been delayed.

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<v Speaker 3>It's the government I hope to emerge from the Pacific

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<v Speaker 3>over the last two weeks holding aloft two documents or

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<v Speaker 3>two treaties, one from Vanuatu, the Nakamal Agreement that it

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<v Speaker 3>hoped to sign last week, and this defense treaty that

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<v Speaker 3>has been talked about so widely and so broadly for

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<v Speaker 3>the last three or four weeks in particular, and in

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<v Speaker 3>the end it's emerging with none.

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<v Speaker 2>But nevertheless, the direction of movements pretty clear on all four.

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<v Speaker 2>And in fact you could go beyond those four and

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<v Speaker 2>say Australia's struck new agreements with various Pacific island countries

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<v Speaker 2>and has stepped up its Pacific diplomatic and aid game

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<v Speaker 2>considerably since twenty eighteen, or maybe even slightly before. And

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<v Speaker 2>look to my mind as a security expert, what all

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<v Speaker 2>this effort has in common is a greater sense of

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<v Speaker 2>concern about China's position in the Pacific Islands region. And

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<v Speaker 2>we know that China has been very busy in the

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<v Speaker 2>region in the last decade. China became the second largest

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<v Speaker 2>aid donor in the Pacific Islands region, really from out

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<v Speaker 2>of nowhere. We also know it achieved a security agreement

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<v Speaker 2>with the Solomon Islands in twenty twenty two, and off

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<v Speaker 2>the back of that, proposed a region wide security deal

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<v Speaker 2>with twelve Pacific Island countries, which the Pacific Island countries

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<v Speaker 2>thankfully declined to participate in. But nevertheless, when it comes

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<v Speaker 2>to security, when one side wins, another side tends to lose.

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<v Speaker 2>Security is zero some So we're really worried about China

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<v Speaker 2>setting up new security arrangements in the Pacific Islands region

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<v Speaker 2>and we're trying to counteract that, or in some cases,

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<v Speaker 2>I think in the case of those four that we mentioned,

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<v Speaker 2>we're trying to preempt China.

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<v Speaker 1>And you mentioned that Not all of these deals are

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<v Speaker 1>necessarily going smoothly. Some haven't been finalized yet. So what

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<v Speaker 1>are the sticking points and what role does climate change

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<v Speaker 1>our response to it play.

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<v Speaker 2>Look, climate change plays a part here because while Australia

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<v Speaker 2>is very much consumed with great power politics and we're

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<v Speaker 2>seeing the Pacific Islands region as a kind of board

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<v Speaker 2>for great power politics, the Pacific island countries themselves chafe

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit at that idea because I think it

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<v Speaker 2>kind of excludes them, and they think that what it

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<v Speaker 2>does is it sidelines the very thing that the very

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<v Speaker 2>security issue that they are most worried about, which is

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<v Speaker 2>climate change.

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<v Speaker 4>Climate change and sea level raise is the single greatest

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<v Speaker 4>threat facing small island euloping states, including those in the

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<v Speaker 4>Pacific where Solomon Islands is.

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<v Speaker 2>There's no point worrying about great powers jostling over military

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<v Speaker 2>basing and military influence if your country is itself physically

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<v Speaker 2>disappearing before your eyes.

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<v Speaker 4>It's affecting our communities and it is a very expensive

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<v Speaker 4>excess for us to keep on rebuilding every year whenever

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<v Speaker 4>you have saclans.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think these kind of security agreements do chafe

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit against what they consider to be their

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<v Speaker 2>top priority. And so you can see in some of

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<v Speaker 2>the language that our leaders use around these agreements that

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<v Speaker 2>they at the very least acknowledge the fact that, yes,

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<v Speaker 2>the Pacific Islands countries are worried about climate change. Above all,

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<v Speaker 2>this government has a claim to being a bit more

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<v Speaker 2>a bit more sympathetic to those concerns than the previous

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<v Speaker 2>Liberal National Coalition government.

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<v Speaker 5>We are all members of the Pacific family and it's

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<v Speaker 5>important that we cooperate on economic issues, on national security

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<v Speaker 5>and in dealing with the challenge of climate chain.

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<v Speaker 2>But nevertheless, I'm sure the Pacific Islands countries feel we're

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<v Speaker 2>not doing enough.

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<v Speaker 1>And these arrangements, as you say on Australia's end, are

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<v Speaker 1>designed to try and limit China's influence in the region

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<v Speaker 1>for security purposes. So is that working so far?

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<v Speaker 2>I think it is. I mean, there is good evidence

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<v Speaker 2>that in the case of p and G and Vanawatu,

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<v Speaker 2>that the late in the last decade did make forays,

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<v Speaker 2>did make entreaties to both of those governments suggesting a

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<v Speaker 2>permanent Chinese military presence. Those efforts were headed off, partly

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<v Speaker 2>by Australian diplomatic action. But Australia has some natural advantages here.

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<v Speaker 2>First of all, we're really close to the Pacific Islands

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<v Speaker 2>region physically, so that means if there's either a natural

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<v Speaker 2>disaster or some kind of political crisis where they need

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<v Speaker 2>help from the outside, Australia is always going to be

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<v Speaker 2>there first, as long as we maintain certain basic capabilities.

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<v Speaker 2>The other thing we have in that advantage is a

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<v Speaker 2>certain sort of cultural and economic closeness that the Chinese

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<v Speaker 2>will never have. We're part of the Pacific Islands for

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<v Speaker 2>them and China is not. We have a Pacific Island

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<v Speaker 2>worker scheme and so does New Zealand, which ties us

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<v Speaker 2>economically to the Pacific in the way that again that

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<v Speaker 2>China can't match. But I think above all of that,

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<v Speaker 2>there's an imbalance of resolve in the sense that the

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<v Speaker 2>Pacific Islands are always going to matter more to us

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<v Speaker 2>than it will to China. So China has a lot

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<v Speaker 2>of resources, but at best the Pacific Islands is going

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<v Speaker 2>to be a second and maybe a third order priority

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<v Speaker 2>for China. It's first order for Australian always will be.

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<v Speaker 1>So is there anything in Australia's foreign policy then that

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<v Speaker 1>is getting in the way of that goal to maintain

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<v Speaker 1>our influence and reduce China's well.

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<v Speaker 2>I would argue that ucas in a word, is the

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<v Speaker 2>thing that's getting in the way. So it kind of

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<v Speaker 2>incentivizes China to have a greater presence in the region

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<v Speaker 2>because after all, we are setting up a new submarine

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<v Speaker 2>base on the west coast.

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<v Speaker 5>So crucial Henderson Shipyards in Western Australia will get a

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<v Speaker 5>twelve billion dollar upgrade.

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<v Speaker 2>Early estimates of what Henderson will cost is in the

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<v Speaker 2>order of twenty five millions.

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<v Speaker 1>So this is not the whole.

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<v Speaker 2>In future, we will set up a submarine base on

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<v Speaker 2>the East coast, both for Australia and American and potentially

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<v Speaker 2>British nuclear powered submarines to use. And the upgrade of

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<v Speaker 2>an Air Force base at a leaf Tindall just south

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<v Speaker 2>of Darwin, which is going to be capable of hosting

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<v Speaker 2>American strategic bombers, long range bombers like the B fifty two.

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<v Speaker 2>The purpose of all these capabilities is really to face

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<v Speaker 2>up to China and to operate well north of Australia

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<v Speaker 2>in a possible conflict with China. I mean, that's why

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<v Speaker 2>you get nuclear powered submarines so that you can operate

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<v Speaker 2>thousands of kilometres north of Australia, potentially off the Chinese

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<v Speaker 2>coast and maybe even firing missiles onto the Chinese mainland,

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<v Speaker 2>which the Australian Aucust submarines are going to be capable of.

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<v Speaker 2>So if the objective is to keep China's military out

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<v Speaker 2>of the Pacific Islands region, then I would argue UCUST

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<v Speaker 2>does the opposite.

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<v Speaker 1>Job coming up. What would it take for Australia to

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<v Speaker 1>walk away from Aucust? So sam, this running government is

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<v Speaker 1>going to pretty big lengths here to try and stop

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<v Speaker 1>China from having any sort of military base in the Pacific.

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<v Speaker 1>What would it mean for us as a country if

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<v Speaker 1>we were to fail on that front and a Pacific

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<v Speaker 1>island nation decided that they would allow China to set

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<v Speaker 1>up a base.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, one base in the Pacific Islands region would be

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<v Speaker 2>a squadron of maritime patrol aircraft or potentially a small

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<v Speaker 2>floatilla with a destroyer and a replenishmentship or something similar.

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<v Speaker 2>That would be irritating for Australia. But if there were

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<v Speaker 2>several Chinese military bases in our region, well that's more

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<v Speaker 2>than an irritant. That's then a direct threat to Australia

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<v Speaker 2>because they can be mutually reinforcing, and in wartime they

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<v Speaker 2>could actually be used to threaten the Australian land mass

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<v Speaker 2>and the military bases on our soil, so we'd have

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<v Speaker 2>to beef up our defenses substantially to deal with something

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<v Speaker 2>like that, and so on that level. The diplomatic effort

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<v Speaker 2>that we're making right now is really smart and really

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<v Speaker 2>good because we're making a relatively small diplomatic investment in

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<v Speaker 2>trying to prevent something that would be extremely expensive to

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<v Speaker 2>counteract if we didn't make that diplomatic effort.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So while we do that, though, we are also,

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<v Speaker 1>as you say, pursuing ORCAS. You mentioned the submarines and

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<v Speaker 1>their bases that will come with that agreement. Tell me

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<v Speaker 1>more about the capacity of those submarines.

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<v Speaker 2>At the heart of ORCAS is an agreement to supply

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<v Speaker 2>Australia with eight nuclear powered submarines. Important distress, nuclear powered,

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<v Speaker 2>not nuclear armed. Australia is not beging to become a

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<v Speaker 2>nuclear armed country. But these boats would be powered by

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<v Speaker 2>nuclear reactors, which means they have basically infinite range and

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<v Speaker 2>infinite endurance. That's a really potent capability to have if

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<v Speaker 2>your plan is to operate off the Chinese coast alongside

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<v Speaker 2>the US Navy. Right, if you want to simply defend

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<v Speaker 2>the Australian land mass, you know there's a huge opportunity

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<v Speaker 2>cost because they're incredibly expensive. So a very potent capability,

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<v Speaker 2>but a capability that generates interest raises Chinese awareness of us.

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<v Speaker 2>The time to attack a nuclear powered submarine is before

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<v Speaker 2>it goes underwater. The time to do that is in port.

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<v Speaker 2>And so these facilities, the one we're building in Western

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<v Speaker 2>Australia and the one we're proposing to build on the

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<v Speaker 2>East coast, it'll probably be in Port Kembler, those are

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<v Speaker 2>going to be targets for China.

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<v Speaker 1>Right, So you're making the argument that ORCAS ultimately makes

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<v Speaker 1>us less safe in Australia because it makes us more

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<v Speaker 1>of a target to China. So what do you think

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<v Speaker 1>it would take for the Australian government to walk away

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<v Speaker 1>from the deal?

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's possible to imagine a kind of crisis

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<v Speaker 2>that may have been unimaginable under the previous administration. So

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<v Speaker 2>when you consider the way that Trump has treated Zelenski,

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<v Speaker 2>the way he has treated the Canadian government, for instance,

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<v Speaker 2>the South African government as well India, more recently came

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<v Speaker 2>in for some really rough treatment from the Trump administration.

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<v Speaker 2>It's not at all silly to see a crisis occurring

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<v Speaker 2>in the bilateral relationship that sours Australia on the Orchest deal.

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<v Speaker 2>A crisis that could have nothing to do with defense.

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<v Speaker 2>It could be to do with our pharmaceutical benefit scheme,

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<v Speaker 2>for instance, or some other economic or trade measure. It

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<v Speaker 2>could be to do with the sale of iron ore

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<v Speaker 2>to China. It's easy to imagine various scenarios where the

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<v Speaker 2>Americans just say no, sorry, We're not going to put

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<v Speaker 2>up with this anymore. So the scope for a crisis

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<v Speaker 2>is much wider now than it's ever been under any

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<v Speaker 2>previous administration, and that could cause Australia to reconsider. But nevertheless,

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<v Speaker 2>I think the more likely possibility is that cancelation of

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<v Speaker 2>at least the American portion of the submarine deal that's

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<v Speaker 2>initiated by the United States rather than by US. The

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<v Speaker 2>American shipbuilding enterprise is in a bad way and they

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<v Speaker 2>are having trouble ramping up their submarine production. They have

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<v Speaker 2>an ambition to have sixty six submarines of their own

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<v Speaker 2>by the middle of the century. They're currently behind to

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<v Speaker 2>achieve that. So it's a really big question whether they

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<v Speaker 2>can even meet their own audiobook, never mind adding the

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<v Speaker 2>three or maybe as many as five submarines for Australia

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<v Speaker 2>as well.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, publicly, at least, you only ever hear the Australian

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<v Speaker 1>government being supportive of the Orcus arrangement. But do you

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<v Speaker 1>think that there is some disquiet.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, there is simply no political motivation or incentive for

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<v Speaker 2>anyone in the Labor Party to break away at the moment.

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<v Speaker 2>There is still a fear I think in the Labor

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<v Speaker 2>Party of looking soft on national security and a kind

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<v Speaker 2>of a breakaway, a big dramatic break from Orcus, would

0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:46.360
<v Speaker 2>open up that territory again for the opposition, and I

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<v Speaker 2>think that scares the.

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<v Speaker 1>Government and so in not wanting to appear a week

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<v Speaker 1>on national security, in your view, we are becoming ultimately weaker.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm yet to persuade ministers in the government, but that

0:13:57.880 --> 0:14:01.439
<v Speaker 2>is certainly my view. Yeah, there are safer and less

0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:04.640
<v Speaker 2>provocative ways for Australia to defend itself. I wrote a

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<v Speaker 2>book a couple of years ago called the Ekidne Strategy.

0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:11.040
<v Speaker 2>You know, the metaphor of the Echidna is that you

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<v Speaker 2>look safe and unthreatening to those that mean you no harm,

0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:16.560
<v Speaker 2>but you look prickly and undigestible to those that do.

0:14:19.120 --> 0:14:22.800
<v Speaker 2>What I'm arguing for is for Australia to adopt a

0:14:22.840 --> 0:14:26.040
<v Speaker 2>defense strategy that is purely defensive. So again the ekidna

0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:29.320
<v Speaker 2>metaphor is useful here because an ekidna doesn't go out

0:14:29.360 --> 0:14:32.240
<v Speaker 2>looking for enemies. It's not a hunter, but you wouldn't

0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:34.960
<v Speaker 2>want to mess with it because it can end badly

0:14:35.040 --> 0:14:36.840
<v Speaker 2>for you if you try to attack it, because it's

0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:40.600
<v Speaker 2>prickly and it's hard to digest. It's a strategy that

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<v Speaker 2>makes it extremely painful and costly and difficult for an

0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:50.720
<v Speaker 2>adversary to operate in the air and maritime approaches around Australia.

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<v Speaker 2>But it's not an approach that is any threat to them.

0:14:55.160 --> 0:14:58.360
<v Speaker 2>And so what that means essentially for Australia is that

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<v Speaker 2>we need a defense force that is really good at

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<v Speaker 2>shooting down missiles and aircraft if they ever come at us,

0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:07.840
<v Speaker 2>and sinking ships if they ever come at us. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>you need various ways to do all those things, but

0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:13.840
<v Speaker 2>that is an affordable defense strategy for in Australia. It's

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<v Speaker 2>even one that we can afford in the event that

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<v Speaker 2>we don't get as much help from the Americans as

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<v Speaker 2>we might currently be relying on. And I think that

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<v Speaker 2>is a future that we need to plan for.

0:15:28.680 --> 0:15:30.680
<v Speaker 1>Well, Sam, thank you so much for your time today.

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<v Speaker 2>I appreciate it. Thank you so much.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news today, the ABC has been ordered

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<v Speaker 1>to pay one hundred and fifty thousand dollars for unlawfully

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<v Speaker 1>sacking journalist Antonette Latouf after she shared a Human Rights

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<v Speaker 1>Watch post on Gaza. The penalty has been levied in

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<v Speaker 1>the Federal court, which found the public broadcaster breached workplace

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<v Speaker 1>law when it sacked miss Latoufe from her casual role

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<v Speaker 1>on ABC Radio Sydney's Mornings program in twenty twenty three.

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<v Speaker 1>The ABC has twenty eight days to pay the fine,

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<v Speaker 1>which comes in addition to the seventy thousand dollars in

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<v Speaker 1>damages she was previously awarded. And the Palestinian Envoy at

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<v Speaker 1>the United Nations has used his address to the Security

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<v Speaker 1>Council to plead for humanitarian aid access to Gaza. Riard

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<v Speaker 1>Mansau told the Council that women and children have been

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<v Speaker 1>the primary targets of Israeli military action in Gaza and

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<v Speaker 1>are the most vulnerable. It comes as one hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>fifty seven UN member states have recognized the State of

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<v Speaker 1>Palestine as a sovereign nation.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Ruby Jones.

0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:45.440
<v Speaker 1>This is seven am. Thanks for listening.