1 00:00:05,480 --> 00:00:07,920 Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed. Some are investing series are 2 00:00:07,960 --> 00:00:11,400 Speaker 1: brought to you by Vantas specialists in compliance led growth. 3 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: I'm Sean Almer. As part of this series that we've 4 00:00:13,840 --> 00:00:16,680 Speaker 1: been hearing from analysts and investors about the stocks they're 5 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:19,760 Speaker 1: keeping an eye on in twenty twenty five, we've had 6 00:00:19,800 --> 00:00:22,840 Speaker 1: a few surprises and plenty of household names. Today Grady 7 00:00:22,840 --> 00:00:25,680 Speaker 1: Wolf Market analyst a Bell direct is if giving us 8 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:28,880 Speaker 1: her three stocks to watch. As always, this is general 9 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 1: information only. You should seek independent advice before making investment decisions. 10 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:36,520 Speaker 1: You've given to them to me Grady outside the show, 11 00:00:36,560 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 1: So let's jump right into it. 12 00:00:38,240 --> 00:00:41,280 Speaker 2: JB Hi Phi Jamie high Fhi is one that riz 13 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 2: the rose to the top this year and it has it. 14 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 2: I know a lot of investors think it's an expensive stock, 15 00:00:46,720 --> 00:00:48,479 Speaker 2: but there's a lot of tailwinds and a lot to 16 00:00:48,640 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 2: like about this company. Now. Jamie Highi is one that 17 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:56,320 Speaker 2: has really really thrived through their downturn in their retail spend. Recently, 18 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 2: they have their cost structured downpack day target youth and 19 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 2: they tell the younger demographic. As we all know, the 20 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,560 Speaker 2: younger demographic does not have any cost of living pressures. 21 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:08,120 Speaker 2: Fears or any cost of living pressures at all. They're 22 00:01:08,120 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 2: living at home, their parents pay for their food and rent, 23 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 2: so what better way to spend your money than at 24 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,839 Speaker 2: JB High Fi. Now the company has expansion over Australia. 25 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 2: They have it in New Zealand and their first quarter 26 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:21,240 Speaker 2: update was very impressive. Analysts and brokers alike were really 27 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 2: impressed with their update. They've got like for like sales 28 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,160 Speaker 2: in the single digits, which is what we're expecting across 29 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 2: the board, so that's nothing to worry about, and especially 30 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:30,840 Speaker 2: in a time where retail spent is coming down, they 31 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 2: are continuing to go from strength to strength. They also 32 00:01:33,640 --> 00:01:36,399 Speaker 2: have acquired that seventy five percent stake in NS so 33 00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 2: that it spans their home goods sector, which is the 34 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 2: good guys which they own, and then that expands their 35 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 2: footprint there so to better compete with the likes of 36 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 2: Harving Norman, Nick Scale all of these companies, so they're 37 00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 2: really expanding their revenue opportunities and their expansion over all 38 00:01:51,360 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 2: the home wares not just tech in the Australian and 39 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:57,480 Speaker 2: New Zealand space. Now at the moment, we like the 40 00:01:57,520 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 2: fact that they have obviously sales growth momentum the new year. 41 00:02:00,640 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 2: But they also play into the AI theme with all 42 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 2: of their computers that they're selling. So they're selling these 43 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:10,320 Speaker 2: really high end computers. They're the number one for technology 44 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 2: in Australia and they're on our horizon next year for 45 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,000 Speaker 2: many reasons, not just for the AI space, but they 46 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,400 Speaker 2: do offer that exposure to the AI revolution through a 47 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 2: different way, but through the retail space. 48 00:02:21,639 --> 00:02:23,800 Speaker 1: Okay, And there's always a risk with every investment. What 49 00:02:23,800 --> 00:02:25,799 Speaker 1: are you worried about is that the interest rates and 50 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 1: cost of living? 51 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:29,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, interest rates, cost of living is what's concerning us 52 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:32,600 Speaker 2: on every investment horizon right now. We're seeing at the 53 00:02:32,600 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 2: moment obviously with the RBA is saying higher for longer. 54 00:02:36,360 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 2: But it's just it's literally a meeting by meeting case 55 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:41,480 Speaker 2: at the moment because as we've seen in the US, 56 00:02:41,600 --> 00:02:45,640 Speaker 2: inflation has become sticky again. That's why the FED in 57 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 2: the last meeting of last year has gone and said 58 00:02:48,320 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 2: no to four rate cuts is now two rate cuts 59 00:02:50,919 --> 00:02:54,040 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty five, and investors were very displeased with this. 60 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,120 Speaker 2: So it's a meeting by meeting case right now. And 61 00:02:57,200 --> 00:03:00,079 Speaker 2: obviously interest rate and inflation drives the economy and the 62 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:00,960 Speaker 2: markets right now. 63 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,080 Speaker 1: Okay, Number two James Hardy Industries. 64 00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:06,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, James Hardy is a really interesting one. They're the 65 00:03:06,639 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 2: number one for fiber and cementing in the US at 66 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 2: the moment and in Australia, so they have the real 67 00:03:12,400 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 2: exposure in the US. Seventy two percent of the revenue 68 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 2: comes from the North American operations. Now, as we know, 69 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 2: Trump tariffs coming in is going to really hurt a 70 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,959 Speaker 2: lot of companies that have exposure to China and all 71 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 2: different areas around the world and in point to the US. 72 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 2: But James Hardy actually operates in the US already and 73 00:03:29,600 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 2: so that can be a really positive thing for James 74 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:36,200 Speaker 2: Hardy Industries with the Trump tarffs coming in because Trump 75 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:39,840 Speaker 2: obviously wants to stimulate domestic demand and domestic use of products. 76 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 2: So with James Hardy having operations based in the US, 77 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:45,839 Speaker 2: that means they're going to bode really well there. And 78 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:48,360 Speaker 2: with the fiber cementing that they have in for the 79 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:51,320 Speaker 2: housing in the US, each of the houses have about 80 00:03:51,320 --> 00:03:54,160 Speaker 2: a forty year life of this before needing to be 81 00:03:54,240 --> 00:03:57,080 Speaker 2: re cemented and refibered, and so we're getting to the 82 00:03:57,120 --> 00:03:59,560 Speaker 2: point in the cycle now where James Hardy is going 83 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 2: to be real needed because a lot of the houses 84 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 2: I think it's about eighty percent of houses in the 85 00:04:03,720 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 2: US need their refibering at the moment, so that really 86 00:04:06,920 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 2: drives around in tailwinds for James Hardy Industries, which has 87 00:04:10,520 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 2: a market leading position in the US. They've also recently 88 00:04:13,280 --> 00:04:16,440 Speaker 2: announced some price increases, which obviously we like to see 89 00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:20,200 Speaker 2: because margin appreciation means more profits. And at the moment 90 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:23,320 Speaker 2: we've got our price target is sixty four dollars per 91 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:26,000 Speaker 2: share over the next twelve months at Bell Potter because 92 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 2: we see that there's an implied return of nineteen point 93 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:30,640 Speaker 2: two percent if the share price does get to that point, 94 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:32,839 Speaker 2: and we do see the tailwinds are there and there's 95 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 2: a lot of upside potential and their company has good 96 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,960 Speaker 2: exposure both in Australia, US and around the world. 97 00:04:39,120 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 1: Okay, just quickly, Cole's one that we all know, Coles Group. 98 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 2: Coles is I think creeping up on Woolies recently because 99 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:48,200 Speaker 2: Aulis has had all these troubles and obviously the duopoly 100 00:04:48,320 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 2: in our Australian supermarket industry. Now Coles has over eight 101 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:54,600 Speaker 2: hundred and seventy stores. They have the fifty percent stake 102 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:57,800 Speaker 2: in Flybys, which diversifies their revenue there and exposure to 103 00:04:57,839 --> 00:05:01,200 Speaker 2: lots of Australian customers. And we've seen the Coals recently 104 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 2: their capex has peaked and so what that's what we 105 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 2: want to see is that they're controlling costs. They've implemented 106 00:05:06,800 --> 00:05:09,360 Speaker 2: this simplify and Save program to cut about a billion 107 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 2: dollars off their cost So that's a very strong thing 108 00:05:11,680 --> 00:05:14,120 Speaker 2: in a high cost environment that we've seen over the 109 00:05:14,160 --> 00:05:16,400 Speaker 2: last twelve months. And at the same time they've been 110 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 2: preased prices to match inflation, which they triple c was watching. 111 00:05:19,960 --> 00:05:22,560 Speaker 2: But there's nothing wrong with the pricingcreases. There's still well 112 00:05:22,640 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 2: under market rates and so what we see over the 113 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 2: next twelve months, in the next two years in financial years, 114 00:05:28,440 --> 00:05:30,640 Speaker 2: is that compound and your growth rate is likely to 115 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,120 Speaker 2: grow at the same time that costs are being reduced, 116 00:05:33,120 --> 00:05:36,840 Speaker 2: so that means profit margins are higher and appreciation there. 117 00:05:36,920 --> 00:05:39,719 Speaker 2: So Cole's liquor has done well, capex has peaked, and 118 00:05:39,720 --> 00:05:43,120 Speaker 2: we're expecting returns of about one point five two billion 119 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:45,839 Speaker 2: dollars in capital investment programs in Coals over the next 120 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:48,799 Speaker 2: twelve months. So again this company is looking to really 121 00:05:48,880 --> 00:05:52,719 Speaker 2: approach on and really cut the gap between Woolord's leadership 122 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,239 Speaker 2: position and Coal's has twenty eight per cent of the market, 123 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:57,440 Speaker 2: Woolwords is about thirty seven percent, So I see that 124 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 2: gap closing over the next twelve months, and Polls is 125 00:06:00,480 --> 00:06:02,960 Speaker 2: a very good investment opportunity I see over the next 126 00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:03,719 Speaker 2: twelve months. 127 00:06:04,000 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 1: Grady, thanks for your time, Thanks for having me. That 128 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 1: was Grady Wolf, market analyst at Beldirect. Remember to get 129 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:12,840 Speaker 1: your own independent advice before making decisions. This is Fair 130 00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:15,440 Speaker 1: and Greed Summer Investing series brought to you by Vanter. 131 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:21,640 Speaker 1: Vanter automates compliance for frameworks like ISO twenty seven one two, 132 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:24,839 Speaker 1: CPS two three four and Essential eight, saving time and 133 00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 1: money while building trust. Join over eight thousand companies like 134 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,920 Speaker 1: at Lassian, Dovetail and fire Ant managing real time risk. 135 00:06:31,160 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 1: Get one thousand dollars off at Vanta dot Com Backslash 136 00:06:34,440 --> 00:06:38,240 Speaker 1: Fear and Greed. I'm Sean Elmer. Enjoy your day.