WEBVTT - Labor’s One Nation problem

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Ruby Jones, and you're listening to 7am. One nation

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<v Speaker 1>has declared that politics has changed after snatching a formerly

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<v Speaker 1>safe Labor seat in a surprise by-election victory in WA

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<v Speaker 1>over the weekend. Until now, it had been the coalition

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<v Speaker 1>feeling the effects of the orange wave, but now Labor

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<v Speaker 1>officially has a Pauline problem of its own. So what

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<v Speaker 1>does this mean for the government and the country? Today,

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<v Speaker 1>WA political reporter for Business News, Gary Adshead, on how

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<v Speaker 1>One Nation won over WA voters and whether it can

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<v Speaker 1>replicate that victory elsewhere. It's Wednesday, September 2. So, Gary,

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<v Speaker 1>Labor has held this seat, Secret Harbour, which is in

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<v Speaker 1>the outer suburbs of Perth for decades now. Then last Saturday,

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<v Speaker 1>One Nation walked in and beat them pretty comfortably. How

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<v Speaker 1>surprising was that result?

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<v Speaker 2>Very, in terms of the size of it.

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<v Speaker 3>Look, I think we've got to start at 2025, the

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<v Speaker 3>state election.

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<v Speaker 2>Labor won 61.5% of.

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<v Speaker 3>The vote on two-party preferred basis. So the nearest rival

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<v Speaker 3>at that point was the Liberals, and they had 38.5%

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<v Speaker 3>two-party preferred. Even with the massive Labor win, there was

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<v Speaker 3>still almost a 20% swing against Labor. And that went

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<v Speaker 3>towards the Liberals. So that's to give you an idea.

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<v Speaker 2>18 months, about 18 months.

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<v Speaker 3>And then you look at what happened on the weekend,

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<v Speaker 3>and One Nation emerged with 57% of the vote on

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<v Speaker 3>a two-party preferred basis.

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<v Speaker 2>And that compared to Labor's 43%.

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<v Speaker 3>The switch could not have been any more dramatic in

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<v Speaker 3>the space of 18 months.

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<v Speaker 4>Extraordinary.

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<v Speaker 2>They came with the big Labor machine.

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<v Speaker 5>They came with their smear tactics.

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<v Speaker 2>They came with their hecklers on the polling booths.

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<v Speaker 5>And we marched right through it.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, let's talk a bit about Labor's candidate for the election,

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<v Speaker 1>Georgia Tree. So she's a former Labor staffer and lobbyist.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell me a bit more about her and why she

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<v Speaker 1>was chosen, what Labor thought she was going to bring.

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<v Speaker 3>She's a long-time Labor Party member. had more recently taken

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<v Speaker 3>a job with Woodside.

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<v Speaker 4>So I'm Georgia Tree. I'm Labor's candidate for Secret Harbour.

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<v Speaker 4>I grew up in Wombra. I went to Wombra Community

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<v Speaker 4>High School. I've lived or worked in this community my

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<v Speaker 4>whole life.

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<v Speaker 3>And she was seen as a local candidate because of

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<v Speaker 3>her history there.

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<v Speaker 2>There's no doubt about that.

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<v Speaker 3>That's how she was sold to the electorate until, of course,

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<v Speaker 3>the point where that question gets asked, are you living

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<v Speaker 3>in the electorate?

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<v Speaker 2>Oh, actually, no, I'm living in the city.

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<v Speaker 4>Like many people, I moved to the city for work,

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<v Speaker 4>but that doesn't mean that I don't know the needs

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<v Speaker 4>of this community or don't feel the needs of this

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<v Speaker 4>community deeply.

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<v Speaker 3>We all know that politicians don't always live in their electorates,

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<v Speaker 3>but what seemed to happen this time around was that

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<v Speaker 3>there was a disdain for the fact that she was

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<v Speaker 3>living in the leafy inner suburbs of Perth rather.

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<v Speaker 2>Than down there, with the people of Secret Harbour.

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<v Speaker 3>That became a sticking point right from the get-go.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell me a little more about what people in the

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<v Speaker 1>electorate said to you about Georgia Tree in the lead-up

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<v Speaker 1>to the election. What were their thoughts on her as

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<v Speaker 1>a candidate and on Labor more generally?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, on Labor, there was a problem.

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<v Speaker 3>And the unusual thing, again, in this by-election, and I

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<v Speaker 3>think that's why it's getting a fair bit of analysis

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<v Speaker 3>on the East Coast, is that usually a by-election election

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<v Speaker 3>in a place like Western Australia's run on sort of state.

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<v Speaker 2>Issues, okay?

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<v Speaker 3>But there absolutely seems to be some protest vote towards Labor.

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<v Speaker 3>So Georgia Tree was the Labor candidate and she seemed

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<v Speaker 3>to be wearing the protest vote that was there for,

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<v Speaker 3>dare I say it, the federal Labor government, Anthony Albanese.

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<v Speaker 2>That was on the lips of a lot of people

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<v Speaker 2>who were voting in Secret Harbour.

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<v Speaker 3>This was an opportunity to send a message to Canberra

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<v Speaker 3>And the One Nation brand was loud and it was everywhere.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, the way that things unfolded during that campaign seemed

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<v Speaker 1>to make things worse for her, not better. There were

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<v Speaker 1>events where she was standing beside the Premier, Roger Cook,

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<v Speaker 1>but she wasn't allowed to answer questions. Tell me a

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<v Speaker 1>bit more about what happened.

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<v Speaker 3>That was one of the most bizarre things I've ever seen.

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<v Speaker 3>So you go out there to the electorate on a Sunday.

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<v Speaker 3>You are the government.

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<v Speaker 2>You have the money.

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<v Speaker 3>You certainly have the money in Western Australians. You've been

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<v Speaker 3>promising to do this for years. You come out with

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<v Speaker 3>your big flagship announcement. We're going to build the train station.

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<v Speaker 1>We know the suburbs around Karnup are growing and they're

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<v Speaker 1>growing quickly.

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<v Speaker 5>The area is set to grow more with a Karnup

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<v Speaker 5>district plan.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll see 20,000 homes built.

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<v Speaker 3>And what happens when it comes to the reporter, one

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<v Speaker 3>reporter saying casually, can we just ask Georgia some questions, please?

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<v Speaker 2>And the Premier says, no, we don't have time. And

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<v Speaker 2>they walk off.

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<v Speaker 4>Thanks very much, everyone.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, what was that all about? No one has owned

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<v Speaker 2>up to it.

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<v Speaker 3>No one has put their hand up and said, that

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<v Speaker 3>was my decision to get away from there quickly because

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<v Speaker 3>we had to go to another commitment as opposed to

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<v Speaker 3>a decision of the strategy, whether they sat around before

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<v Speaker 3>and said, let's make this $ 156 million announcement and then

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<v Speaker 3>not let the candidate take any credit for it.

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<v Speaker 2>It was bizarre.

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<v Speaker 3>It was the strangest thing that I'd seen certainly covering

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<v Speaker 3>elections for a while.

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<v Speaker 4>Okay.

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<v Speaker 1>And so while Labor was struggling, what was One Nation

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<v Speaker 1>doing right? Why was Luke Hurtigen connecting with voters?

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<v Speaker 2>I think he had a big orange hat on his head.

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<v Speaker 3>And I think that they're is a movement now that

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<v Speaker 3>is quite clearly towards One Nation because of the messaging

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<v Speaker 3>that comes out of Pauline Hanson around migration.

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<v Speaker 2>Net zero, et cetera. So what did Luke Hurtigen do?

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<v Speaker 3>He turned up, he spoke to punters, he spoke at

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<v Speaker 3>a sort of a level that they can kind of get.

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<v Speaker 3>It was a brand and it seemed to sweep up

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<v Speaker 3>people in its way.

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<v Speaker 2>It just worked.

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<v Speaker 3>None of these MPs are safe from the orange tsunami.

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<v Speaker 3>And it might be because of the electorate, might be

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<v Speaker 3>because of the makeup of the electorate, but it worked there.

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<v Speaker 2>There's nothing to say it won't work everywhere else.

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<v Speaker 1>And you reported some damaging material about Hertogen's past, drug use,

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<v Speaker 1>associations with crime figures when he was living in London.

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<v Speaker 1>Did any of that have an impact on how people

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<v Speaker 1>saw him?

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<v Speaker 3>So by his own admission, let's put it into context,

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<v Speaker 3>by his own admission, he spent time in London in

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<v Speaker 3>around 2016-17.

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<v Speaker 2>And he was blogging about.

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<v Speaker 3>The fact that he had a four-day-a-week cocaine binging habit

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<v Speaker 3>and that he was connected at that time and associating

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<v Speaker 3>with and hanging out with his.

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<v Speaker 2>Words, Albanian organised crime figures.

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<v Speaker 3>What I'll say is this, if that had been the

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<v Speaker 3>Labor candidate, it would have been on the front page

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<v Speaker 3>of the daily newspaper.

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<v Speaker 2>It was reported on our business news website.

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<v Speaker 3>There were questions asked by other media and it was

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<v Speaker 3>reported in some way, but it certainly wasn't the splash.

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<v Speaker 2>I reported it just.

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<v Speaker 3>Before Pauline Hanson arrived to do a breakfast event for

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<v Speaker 3>Seven West Media, the newspaper, the TV station. And The

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<v Speaker 3>aftermath of that was Pauline Hanson at a press conference

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<v Speaker 3>being asked, did you know that your candidate for One

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<v Speaker 3>Nation has openly admitted to being a cocaine user who

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<v Speaker 3>hung out with Albanian gangsters? She said no, she didn't know.

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<v Speaker 3>And she'll ask questions about it. Now, for me, that

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<v Speaker 3>was kind of the story of the campaign, because it

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<v Speaker 3>just goes to show what a they're chaotic and you

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<v Speaker 3>don't know what's in the background of some of their candidates.

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<v Speaker 2>When Pauline Hanson said.

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<v Speaker 3>She had no idea about his background in that regard,

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<v Speaker 3>I thought that might have become more of an issue.

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<v Speaker 3>It certainly did in terms of my reporting, but it

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<v Speaker 3>didn't get a lot of widespread traction, which is interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>Still to come, how worried should Labor be? Gary, for years,

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<v Speaker 1>One Nation has really been talked about as a threat

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<v Speaker 1>to the coalition, not to Labor. But this by-election, what

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<v Speaker 1>does that say to you about whether Labor has now

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<v Speaker 1>most definitely got a One Nation problem?

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<v Speaker 3>They've got a One Nation problem because there's a few

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<v Speaker 3>things to that. I mean, Labor don't forget aiming for

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<v Speaker 3>a fourth term here in Western Australia. And we all

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<v Speaker 3>know that people get tired of government, tired of seeing

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<v Speaker 3>the same people, tired of hearing the same messages. So

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<v Speaker 3>they've got that issue, trying to get a fourth term. But,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, this is a Labor government off the back

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<v Speaker 3>of Mark McGowan's popularity and the pandemic and the amount

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<v Speaker 3>of votes that he got through that, that have 45

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<v Speaker 3>members in the lower house of parliament here compared to

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<v Speaker 3>the Liberals and Nationals with 12.

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<v Speaker 2>So their majority is still enormous.

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<v Speaker 3>Having said that, now we watch that result on the

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<v Speaker 3>weekend and we think, well, around it are seats like Rockingham, Baldivis,

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<v Speaker 3>These are all very similar type of demographics. And even Kwanada,

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<v Speaker 3>which is the Premier's own seat, these seats would have

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<v Speaker 3>to now be in play as far as the Labor

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<v Speaker 3>Party's concerned. And let's say, or I'll say, I think

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<v Speaker 3>One Nation would be seriously thinking they could pick up

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<v Speaker 3>at least another seven seats in the 2029 state election

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<v Speaker 3>here in WA if they can maintain the momentum that

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<v Speaker 3>we've been seeing in WA and around the country in

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<v Speaker 3>relation to One Nation.

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<v Speaker 2>And of course, in between that, we've got a federal election,

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<v Speaker 2>which will tell us even more of the story.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, let's talk a little about that, because this seat,

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<v Speaker 1>Sacred Harbour, it actually forms part of Andrew Hastie, his

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<v Speaker 1>federal electorate. How worried do you think he is?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, he's been worried. I mean, he's not making any

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<v Speaker 3>secret about being worried. He's the one who's saying, we

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<v Speaker 3>need to fight One Nation.

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<v Speaker 5>We've got to fight for every single vote. And whenever

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<v Speaker 5>I enter a contest, I want to win. And I

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<v Speaker 5>think that should be our message in this by-election.

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<v Speaker 3>The Liberal Party in WA never said a bad thing

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<v Speaker 3>about One Nation. They never challenged them. They ran against them, sure.

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<v Speaker 3>And they had a good candidate, a naval submariner with

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<v Speaker 3>a heck of a track record in the military, family man.

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<v Speaker 3>He was a very good candidate. But they took it

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<v Speaker 3>to Labor every day. but they never grounded on One

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<v Speaker 3>Nation at all. It was like a deliberate decision. And

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<v Speaker 3>before the actual secret harbour by-election, the Liberal leader in

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<v Speaker 3>this city, Basil Zempler, said... So my approach has very

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<v Speaker 3>much been, see One Nation's rise as an opportunity, not

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<v Speaker 3>a threat. So by saying that, it was like, well,

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<v Speaker 3>if they can beat Labor, One Nation, great, that's one

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<v Speaker 3>less seat that Labor has. That was the kind of mindset.

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<v Speaker 3>Andrew Hastie has been outspoken about that. He's not happy

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<v Speaker 3>about it. He thinks that you show that sort of

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<v Speaker 3>weakness and you're going to get pummeled.

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<v Speaker 5>I don't accept this idea that a win for One

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<v Speaker 5>Nation is a win for the Liberal Party.

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<v Speaker 2>We're fighting for our lives.

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<v Speaker 3>In the end, the Liberal Party only got 17% of

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<v Speaker 3>the primary vote on Saturday.

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<v Speaker 2>That's not good enough.

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<v Speaker 3>In 2025, the swing was on to the Liberal Party

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<v Speaker 3>in Secret Harbour and they had 25% of the primary.

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<v Speaker 3>So they dropped and maybe it's because You know, they

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<v Speaker 3>were bystanders as opposed to combatants during that by-election.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, let's stay with the federal picture because WA has

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<v Speaker 1>been crucial to Labor federally. It helped deliver Anthony Albanese

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<v Speaker 1>government in 2022. It strengthened Labor again in 2025. So

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<v Speaker 1>how seriously do you think federal Labor should be looking

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<v Speaker 1>at what just happened in Secret Harbour?

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<v Speaker 3>Very, because, you know, a lot of the messaging down

0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:43.930
<v Speaker 3>there was against the federal government. this was an opportunity

0:12:44.010 --> 0:12:47.600
<v Speaker 3>that now One Nation supporters in Western Australia saw to send.

0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:48.440
<v Speaker 2>A message to Canberra.

0:12:49.059 --> 0:12:52.080
<v Speaker 3>So I would say that Anthony Albanese would be very

0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:55.790
<v Speaker 3>conscious of the mood and that there might be a

0:12:55.830 --> 0:13:00.130
<v Speaker 3>mood to punish for whatever reason his government. He has

0:13:00.190 --> 0:13:02.939
<v Speaker 3>come over to Western Australia a week before and make

0:13:03.000 --> 0:13:06.310
<v Speaker 3>sure that the GST deal that we savour so.

0:13:06.190 --> 0:13:07.929
<v Speaker 2>Much is being kept in place.

0:13:07.950 --> 0:13:11.090
<v Speaker 3>So that's one thing that he's drawn a line under,

0:13:11.130 --> 0:13:13.550
<v Speaker 3>that he won't cut WA out of any of its

0:13:13.610 --> 0:13:17.360
<v Speaker 3>GST share. But notably, he didn't go to the seat

0:13:17.400 --> 0:13:20.060
<v Speaker 3>of Secret Harbour either. He didn't go on a visit

0:13:20.120 --> 0:13:22.640
<v Speaker 3>down there. He said, hey, it was time, and B,

0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:26.560
<v Speaker 3>he doesn't usually go to state by-elections. But maybe, you know,

0:13:26.620 --> 0:13:28.870
<v Speaker 3>in his own mind, he knew it wouldn't have helped

0:13:29.010 --> 0:13:31.630
<v Speaker 3>at all if he had, so. Yeah, no, it's a

0:13:31.650 --> 0:13:35.070
<v Speaker 3>serious issue now for federal Labor as well, as we

0:13:35.110 --> 0:13:35.810
<v Speaker 3>see this play out.

0:13:36.130 --> 0:13:38.929
<v Speaker 1>You do often see by-elections go against the government, though.

0:13:38.950 --> 0:13:42.150
<v Speaker 1>It's kind of a safe way for people to protest

0:13:42.350 --> 0:13:46.340
<v Speaker 1>a government without actually making a change. It's a way

0:13:46.360 --> 0:13:49.160
<v Speaker 1>to send a message. I suppose this is proof, though,

0:13:49.179 --> 0:13:52.720
<v Speaker 1>that for One Nation, it's not just the polls. They

0:13:52.740 --> 0:13:56.270
<v Speaker 1>do have genuine electoral growth. This is the first, correct

0:13:56.309 --> 0:13:58.510
<v Speaker 1>me if I'm wrong, the first lower House WA seat

0:13:58.590 --> 0:13:59.150
<v Speaker 1>for the party.

0:13:59.510 --> 0:14:00.090
<v Speaker 3>It is, yes.

0:14:00.190 --> 0:14:02.810
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, it's the first time since 1998 that One Nation

0:14:02.830 --> 0:14:05.880
<v Speaker 1>has taken a Labor seat. So tell me what it

0:14:05.910 --> 0:14:10.160
<v Speaker 1>says to you about One Nation's increasing influence and power

0:14:10.260 --> 0:14:13.780
<v Speaker 1>and its projections as we kind of look to the

0:14:13.820 --> 0:14:16.380
<v Speaker 1>federal election in a year and a half, two years' time.

0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:19.510
<v Speaker 3>I think it just says that they don't have to

0:14:19.550 --> 0:14:23.370
<v Speaker 3>go into an election campaign with policies per se.

0:14:23.430 --> 0:14:25.950
<v Speaker 2>They just have to have the brand and the brand.

0:14:26.750 --> 0:14:28.070
<v Speaker 3>And we've seen it in other countries.

0:14:28.090 --> 0:14:29.810
<v Speaker 2>You know, that brand is just there.

0:14:30.510 --> 0:14:34.270
<v Speaker 3>And there's a lot of things that One Nation have

0:14:34.350 --> 0:14:37.580
<v Speaker 3>done in terms of their voting in the federal parliament

0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:40.240
<v Speaker 3>that if people really sat back and looked at that,

0:14:40.620 --> 0:14:42.380
<v Speaker 3>they should be horrified in terms.

0:14:42.200 --> 0:14:43.960
<v Speaker 2>Of what they've not supported.

0:14:44.260 --> 0:14:48.800
<v Speaker 3>But you've now got a political party that has financial backing.

0:14:49.500 --> 0:14:54.300
<v Speaker 3>You know, the Gina Reinhart factor is absolutely there. You've

0:14:54.350 --> 0:14:57.570
<v Speaker 3>got a party that's showing ascendancy, so therefore others are

0:14:57.590 --> 0:15:00.650
<v Speaker 3>jumping on it. Others that do have offerings in terms

0:15:00.690 --> 0:15:06.620
<v Speaker 3>of strategy that have perhaps offered some expertise around policy settings.

0:15:07.290 --> 0:15:10.420
<v Speaker 2>So you've got this kind of, what started as just.

0:15:10.280 --> 0:15:13.100
<v Speaker 3>That party of grievance, you know, angry about this, angry

0:15:13.160 --> 0:15:16.280
<v Speaker 3>about that, that's not good enough, you're hopeless, is sort

0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:19.850
<v Speaker 3>of starting to develop into a different style of party.

0:15:19.970 --> 0:15:23.750
<v Speaker 2>And down there at Secret Harbour, it was obvious.

0:15:23.410 --> 0:15:28.370
<v Speaker 3>That It was done in a smooth, largely sensible way

0:15:28.910 --> 0:15:31.830
<v Speaker 3>in terms of the campaign. It was, dare I say it,

0:15:31.870 --> 0:15:34.310
<v Speaker 3>it was a much smoother campaign than what Labor ran

0:15:34.990 --> 0:15:37.530
<v Speaker 3>in the Secret Harbour by-election, and that is saying something.

0:15:38.550 --> 0:15:40.590
<v Speaker 2>No, it sounds like it.

0:15:40.970 --> 0:15:44.230
<v Speaker 1>Well, Gary, thank you so much for your time. Pleasure.

0:15:44.270 --> 0:15:44.530
<v Speaker 3>Pleasure.

0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:57.420
<v Speaker 1>Also in the news, a second Australian missing in the

0:15:57.460 --> 0:16:00.870
<v Speaker 1>Nepal flooding disaster has been found safe in Tibet and

0:16:00.950 --> 0:16:05.230
<v Speaker 1>is being offered consular support. Around 4,000 people remain missing

0:16:05.310 --> 0:16:09.370
<v Speaker 1>across the affected areas, including at least 42 other Australians.

0:16:10.870 --> 0:16:14.570
<v Speaker 1>And former 2GB broadcaster Ray Hadley, a long-time colleague of

0:16:14.710 --> 0:16:18.320
<v Speaker 1>Alan Jones, has given evidence in Jones' criminal trial in Sydney.

0:16:19.070 --> 0:16:21.610
<v Speaker 1>Hadley told the court that a complainant known as C

0:16:21.990 --> 0:16:24.630
<v Speaker 1>told him in 2019 that Jones had put his hand

0:16:24.690 --> 0:16:27.910
<v Speaker 1>on him and kissed him. Jones is standing trial on

0:16:27.910 --> 0:16:31.250
<v Speaker 1>22 counts of indecent assault and two counts of sexual

0:16:31.290 --> 0:16:34.150
<v Speaker 1>touching without consent. He denies the allegations.

0:16:35.270 --> 0:16:35.910
<v Speaker 2>I'm Ruby Jones.

0:16:36.110 --> 0:16:36.830
<v Speaker 4>This is 7am.

0:16:37.130 --> 0:16:37.710
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening.