Speaker 1: I'm Ruby Jones, and you're listening to 7am. One nation
Speaker 1: has declared that politics has changed after snatching a formerly
Speaker 1: safe Labor seat in a surprise by-election victory in WA
Speaker 1: over the weekend. Until now, it had been the coalition
Speaker 1: feeling the effects of the orange wave, but now Labor
Speaker 1: officially has a Pauline problem of its own. So what
Speaker 1: does this mean for the government and the country? Today,
Speaker 1: WA political reporter for Business News, Gary Adshead, on how
Speaker 1: One Nation won over WA voters and whether it can
Speaker 1: replicate that victory elsewhere. It's Wednesday, September 2. So, Gary,
Speaker 1: Labor has held this seat, Secret Harbour, which is in
Speaker 1: the outer suburbs of Perth for decades now. Then last Saturday,
Speaker 1: One Nation walked in and beat them pretty comfortably. How
Speaker 1: surprising was that result?
Speaker 2: Very, in terms of the size of it.
Speaker 3: Look, I think we've got to start at 2025, the
Speaker 3: state election.
Speaker 2: Labor won 61.5% of.
Speaker 3: The vote on two-party preferred basis. So the nearest rival
Speaker 3: at that point was the Liberals, and they had 38.5%
Speaker 3: two-party preferred. Even with the massive Labor win, there was
Speaker 3: still almost a 20% swing against Labor. And that went
Speaker 3: towards the Liberals. So that's to give you an idea.
Speaker 2: 18 months, about 18 months.
Speaker 3: And then you look at what happened on the weekend,
Speaker 3: and One Nation emerged with 57% of the vote on
Speaker 3: a two-party preferred basis.
Speaker 2: And that compared to Labor's 43%.
Speaker 3: The switch could not have been any more dramatic in
Speaker 3: the space of 18 months.
Speaker 4: Extraordinary.
Speaker 2: They came with the big Labor machine.
Speaker 5: They came with their smear tactics.
Speaker 2: They came with their hecklers on the polling booths.
Speaker 5: And we marched right through it.
Speaker 1: Well, let's talk a bit about Labor's candidate for the election,
Speaker 1: Georgia Tree. So she's a former Labor staffer and lobbyist.
Speaker 1: Tell me a bit more about her and why she
Speaker 1: was chosen, what Labor thought she was going to bring.
Speaker 3: She's a long-time Labor Party member. had more recently taken
Speaker 3: a job with Woodside.
Speaker 4: So I'm Georgia Tree. I'm Labor's candidate for Secret Harbour.
Speaker 4: I grew up in Wombra. I went to Wombra Community
Speaker 4: High School. I've lived or worked in this community my
Speaker 4: whole life.
Speaker 3: And she was seen as a local candidate because of
Speaker 3: her history there.
Speaker 2: There's no doubt about that.
Speaker 3: That's how she was sold to the electorate until, of course,
Speaker 3: the point where that question gets asked, are you living
Speaker 3: in the electorate?
Speaker 2: Oh, actually, no, I'm living in the city.
Speaker 4: Like many people, I moved to the city for work,
Speaker 4: but that doesn't mean that I don't know the needs
Speaker 4: of this community or don't feel the needs of this
Speaker 4: community deeply.
Speaker 3: We all know that politicians don't always live in their electorates,
Speaker 3: but what seemed to happen this time around was that
Speaker 3: there was a disdain for the fact that she was
Speaker 3: living in the leafy inner suburbs of Perth rather.
Speaker 2: Than down there, with the people of Secret Harbour.
Speaker 3: That became a sticking point right from the get-go.
Speaker 1: Tell me a little more about what people in the
Speaker 1: electorate said to you about Georgia Tree in the lead-up
Speaker 1: to the election. What were their thoughts on her as
Speaker 1: a candidate and on Labor more generally?
Speaker 2: Well, on Labor, there was a problem.
Speaker 3: And the unusual thing, again, in this by-election, and I
Speaker 3: think that's why it's getting a fair bit of analysis
Speaker 3: on the East Coast, is that usually a by-election election
Speaker 3: in a place like Western Australia's run on sort of state.
Speaker 2: Issues, okay?
Speaker 3: But there absolutely seems to be some protest vote towards Labor.
Speaker 3: So Georgia Tree was the Labor candidate and she seemed
Speaker 3: to be wearing the protest vote that was there for,
Speaker 3: dare I say it, the federal Labor government, Anthony Albanese.
Speaker 2: That was on the lips of a lot of people
Speaker 2: who were voting in Secret Harbour.
Speaker 3: This was an opportunity to send a message to Canberra
Speaker 3: And the One Nation brand was loud and it was everywhere.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the way that things unfolded during that campaign seemed
Speaker 1: to make things worse for her, not better. There were
Speaker 1: events where she was standing beside the Premier, Roger Cook,
Speaker 1: but she wasn't allowed to answer questions. Tell me a
Speaker 1: bit more about what happened.
Speaker 3: That was one of the most bizarre things I've ever seen.
Speaker 3: So you go out there to the electorate on a Sunday.
Speaker 3: You are the government.
Speaker 2: You have the money.
Speaker 3: You certainly have the money in Western Australians. You've been
Speaker 3: promising to do this for years. You come out with
Speaker 3: your big flagship announcement. We're going to build the train station.
Speaker 1: We know the suburbs around Karnup are growing and they're
Speaker 1: growing quickly.
Speaker 5: The area is set to grow more with a Karnup
Speaker 5: district plan.
Speaker 1: We'll see 20,000 homes built.
Speaker 3: And what happens when it comes to the reporter, one
Speaker 3: reporter saying casually, can we just ask Georgia some questions, please?
Speaker 2: And the Premier says, no, we don't have time. And
Speaker 2: they walk off.
Speaker 4: Thanks very much, everyone.
Speaker 2: Now, what was that all about? No one has owned
Speaker 2: up to it.
Speaker 3: No one has put their hand up and said, that
Speaker 3: was my decision to get away from there quickly because
Speaker 3: we had to go to another commitment as opposed to
Speaker 3: a decision of the strategy, whether they sat around before
Speaker 3: and said, let's make this $ 156 million announcement and then
Speaker 3: not let the candidate take any credit for it.
Speaker 2: It was bizarre.
Speaker 3: It was the strangest thing that I'd seen certainly covering
Speaker 3: elections for a while.
Speaker 4: Okay.
Speaker 1: And so while Labor was struggling, what was One Nation
Speaker 1: doing right? Why was Luke Hurtigen connecting with voters?
Speaker 2: I think he had a big orange hat on his head.
Speaker 3: And I think that they're is a movement now that
Speaker 3: is quite clearly towards One Nation because of the messaging
Speaker 3: that comes out of Pauline Hanson around migration.
Speaker 2: Net zero, et cetera. So what did Luke Hurtigen do?
Speaker 3: He turned up, he spoke to punters, he spoke at
Speaker 3: a sort of a level that they can kind of get.
Speaker 3: It was a brand and it seemed to sweep up
Speaker 3: people in its way.
Speaker 2: It just worked.
Speaker 3: None of these MPs are safe from the orange tsunami.
Speaker 3: And it might be because of the electorate, might be
Speaker 3: because of the makeup of the electorate, but it worked there.
Speaker 2: There's nothing to say it won't work everywhere else.
Speaker 1: And you reported some damaging material about Hertogen's past, drug use,
Speaker 1: associations with crime figures when he was living in London.
Speaker 1: Did any of that have an impact on how people
Speaker 1: saw him?
Speaker 3: So by his own admission, let's put it into context,
Speaker 3: by his own admission, he spent time in London in
Speaker 3: around 2016-17.
Speaker 2: And he was blogging about.
Speaker 3: The fact that he had a four-day-a-week cocaine binging habit
Speaker 3: and that he was connected at that time and associating
Speaker 3: with and hanging out with his.
Speaker 2: Words, Albanian organised crime figures.
Speaker 3: What I'll say is this, if that had been the
Speaker 3: Labor candidate, it would have been on the front page
Speaker 3: of the daily newspaper.
Speaker 2: It was reported on our business news website.
Speaker 3: There were questions asked by other media and it was
Speaker 3: reported in some way, but it certainly wasn't the splash.
Speaker 2: I reported it just.
Speaker 3: Before Pauline Hanson arrived to do a breakfast event for
Speaker 3: Seven West Media, the newspaper, the TV station. And The
Speaker 3: aftermath of that was Pauline Hanson at a press conference
Speaker 3: being asked, did you know that your candidate for One
Speaker 3: Nation has openly admitted to being a cocaine user who
Speaker 3: hung out with Albanian gangsters? She said no, she didn't know.
Speaker 3: And she'll ask questions about it. Now, for me, that
Speaker 3: was kind of the story of the campaign, because it
Speaker 3: just goes to show what a they're chaotic and you
Speaker 3: don't know what's in the background of some of their candidates.
Speaker 2: When Pauline Hanson said.
Speaker 3: She had no idea about his background in that regard,
Speaker 3: I thought that might have become more of an issue.
Speaker 3: It certainly did in terms of my reporting, but it
Speaker 3: didn't get a lot of widespread traction, which is interesting.
Speaker 1: Still to come, how worried should Labor be? Gary, for years,
Speaker 1: One Nation has really been talked about as a threat
Speaker 1: to the coalition, not to Labor. But this by-election, what
Speaker 1: does that say to you about whether Labor has now
Speaker 1: most definitely got a One Nation problem?
Speaker 3: They've got a One Nation problem because there's a few
Speaker 3: things to that. I mean, Labor don't forget aiming for
Speaker 3: a fourth term here in Western Australia. And we all
Speaker 3: know that people get tired of government, tired of seeing
Speaker 3: the same people, tired of hearing the same messages. So
Speaker 3: they've got that issue, trying to get a fourth term. But,
Speaker 3: you know, this is a Labor government off the back
Speaker 3: of Mark McGowan's popularity and the pandemic and the amount
Speaker 3: of votes that he got through that, that have 45
Speaker 3: members in the lower house of parliament here compared to
Speaker 3: the Liberals and Nationals with 12.
Speaker 2: So their majority is still enormous.
Speaker 3: Having said that, now we watch that result on the
Speaker 3: weekend and we think, well, around it are seats like Rockingham, Baldivis,
Speaker 3: These are all very similar type of demographics. And even Kwanada,
Speaker 3: which is the Premier's own seat, these seats would have
Speaker 3: to now be in play as far as the Labor
Speaker 3: Party's concerned. And let's say, or I'll say, I think
Speaker 3: One Nation would be seriously thinking they could pick up
Speaker 3: at least another seven seats in the 2029 state election
Speaker 3: here in WA if they can maintain the momentum that
Speaker 3: we've been seeing in WA and around the country in
Speaker 3: relation to One Nation.
Speaker 2: And of course, in between that, we've got a federal election,
Speaker 2: which will tell us even more of the story.
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk a little about that, because this seat,
Speaker 1: Sacred Harbour, it actually forms part of Andrew Hastie, his
Speaker 1: federal electorate. How worried do you think he is?
Speaker 3: Well, he's been worried. I mean, he's not making any
Speaker 3: secret about being worried. He's the one who's saying, we
Speaker 3: need to fight One Nation.
Speaker 5: We've got to fight for every single vote. And whenever
Speaker 5: I enter a contest, I want to win. And I
Speaker 5: think that should be our message in this by-election.
Speaker 3: The Liberal Party in WA never said a bad thing
Speaker 3: about One Nation. They never challenged them. They ran against them, sure.
Speaker 3: And they had a good candidate, a naval submariner with
Speaker 3: a heck of a track record in the military, family man.
Speaker 3: He was a very good candidate. But they took it
Speaker 3: to Labor every day. but they never grounded on One
Speaker 3: Nation at all. It was like a deliberate decision. And
Speaker 3: before the actual secret harbour by-election, the Liberal leader in
Speaker 3: this city, Basil Zempler, said... So my approach has very
Speaker 3: much been, see One Nation's rise as an opportunity, not
Speaker 3: a threat. So by saying that, it was like, well,
Speaker 3: if they can beat Labor, One Nation, great, that's one
Speaker 3: less seat that Labor has. That was the kind of mindset.
Speaker 3: Andrew Hastie has been outspoken about that. He's not happy
Speaker 3: about it. He thinks that you show that sort of
Speaker 3: weakness and you're going to get pummeled.
Speaker 5: I don't accept this idea that a win for One
Speaker 5: Nation is a win for the Liberal Party.
Speaker 2: We're fighting for our lives.
Speaker 3: In the end, the Liberal Party only got 17% of
Speaker 3: the primary vote on Saturday.
Speaker 2: That's not good enough.
Speaker 3: In 2025, the swing was on to the Liberal Party
Speaker 3: in Secret Harbour and they had 25% of the primary.
Speaker 3: So they dropped and maybe it's because You know, they
Speaker 3: were bystanders as opposed to combatants during that by-election.
Speaker 1: Well, let's stay with the federal picture because WA has
Speaker 1: been crucial to Labor federally. It helped deliver Anthony Albanese
Speaker 1: government in 2022. It strengthened Labor again in 2025. So
Speaker 1: how seriously do you think federal Labor should be looking
Speaker 1: at what just happened in Secret Harbour?
Speaker 3: Very, because, you know, a lot of the messaging down
Speaker 3: there was against the federal government. this was an opportunity
Speaker 3: that now One Nation supporters in Western Australia saw to send.
Speaker 2: A message to Canberra.
Speaker 3: So I would say that Anthony Albanese would be very
Speaker 3: conscious of the mood and that there might be a
Speaker 3: mood to punish for whatever reason his government. He has
Speaker 3: come over to Western Australia a week before and make
Speaker 3: sure that the GST deal that we savour so.
Speaker 2: Much is being kept in place.
Speaker 3: So that's one thing that he's drawn a line under,
Speaker 3: that he won't cut WA out of any of its
Speaker 3: GST share. But notably, he didn't go to the seat
Speaker 3: of Secret Harbour either. He didn't go on a visit
Speaker 3: down there. He said, hey, it was time, and B,
Speaker 3: he doesn't usually go to state by-elections. But maybe, you know,
Speaker 3: in his own mind, he knew it wouldn't have helped
Speaker 3: at all if he had, so. Yeah, no, it's a
Speaker 3: serious issue now for federal Labor as well, as we
Speaker 3: see this play out.
Speaker 1: You do often see by-elections go against the government, though.
Speaker 1: It's kind of a safe way for people to protest
Speaker 1: a government without actually making a change. It's a way
Speaker 1: to send a message. I suppose this is proof, though,
Speaker 1: that for One Nation, it's not just the polls. They
Speaker 1: do have genuine electoral growth. This is the first, correct
Speaker 1: me if I'm wrong, the first lower House WA seat
Speaker 1: for the party.
Speaker 3: It is, yes.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's the first time since 1998 that One Nation
Speaker 1: has taken a Labor seat. So tell me what it
Speaker 1: says to you about One Nation's increasing influence and power
Speaker 1: and its projections as we kind of look to the
Speaker 1: federal election in a year and a half, two years' time.
Speaker 3: I think it just says that they don't have to
Speaker 3: go into an election campaign with policies per se.
Speaker 2: They just have to have the brand and the brand.
Speaker 3: And we've seen it in other countries.
Speaker 2: You know, that brand is just there.
Speaker 3: And there's a lot of things that One Nation have
Speaker 3: done in terms of their voting in the federal parliament
Speaker 3: that if people really sat back and looked at that,
Speaker 3: they should be horrified in terms.
Speaker 2: Of what they've not supported.
Speaker 3: But you've now got a political party that has financial backing.
Speaker 3: You know, the Gina Reinhart factor is absolutely there. You've
Speaker 3: got a party that's showing ascendancy, so therefore others are
Speaker 3: jumping on it. Others that do have offerings in terms
Speaker 3: of strategy that have perhaps offered some expertise around policy settings.
Speaker 2: So you've got this kind of, what started as just.
Speaker 3: That party of grievance, you know, angry about this, angry
Speaker 3: about that, that's not good enough, you're hopeless, is sort
Speaker 3: of starting to develop into a different style of party.
Speaker 2: And down there at Secret Harbour, it was obvious.
Speaker 3: That It was done in a smooth, largely sensible way
Speaker 3: in terms of the campaign. It was, dare I say it,
Speaker 3: it was a much smoother campaign than what Labor ran
Speaker 3: in the Secret Harbour by-election, and that is saying something.
Speaker 2: No, it sounds like it.
Speaker 1: Well, Gary, thank you so much for your time. Pleasure.
Speaker 3: Pleasure.
Speaker 1: Also in the news, a second Australian missing in the
Speaker 1: Nepal flooding disaster has been found safe in Tibet and
Speaker 1: is being offered consular support. Around 4,000 people remain missing
Speaker 1: across the affected areas, including at least 42 other Australians.
Speaker 1: And former 2GB broadcaster Ray Hadley, a long-time colleague of
Speaker 1: Alan Jones, has given evidence in Jones' criminal trial in Sydney.
Speaker 1: Hadley told the court that a complainant known as C
Speaker 1: told him in 2019 that Jones had put his hand
Speaker 1: on him and kissed him. Jones is standing trial on
Speaker 1: 22 counts of indecent assault and two counts of sexual
Speaker 1: touching without consent. He denies the allegations.
Speaker 2: I'm Ruby Jones.
Speaker 4: This is 7am.
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening.