WEBVTT - Sussan Ley and the killing season to come

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<v Speaker 1>Susan Lee cut a lonely figure on Wednesday when she

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<v Speaker 1>walked into the Liberal party room meeting with just one

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<v Speaker 1>colleague by her side.

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<v Speaker 2>I was interested watching those images of the Liberals filing

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<v Speaker 2>into that party room meeting.

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<v Speaker 1>The Opposition were there to thrash out their position on

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<v Speaker 1>net zero once and for all. And like everyone in

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<v Speaker 1>the Canbra press pack, Karen Middleton was watching and what

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<v Speaker 1>she noticed was a sign of what was to come.

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<v Speaker 2>That big group of Conservatives who walked in together, they

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<v Speaker 2>were sending a message that was not a message of

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<v Speaker 2>support for Susan Lee. Because if you were a group

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<v Speaker 2>of people who wanted her to succeed, wanted to back

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<v Speaker 2>her in, you wouldn't be doing what they did. All right, Well,

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<v Speaker 2>good afternoon, everybody.

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<v Speaker 1>By the next day, the opposition leader frantic cameras to

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<v Speaker 1>announce what was widely expected.

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<v Speaker 3>The Liberal Party will remove a net zero target from

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<v Speaker 3>our policy.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a shift that will define Susan Lee's leadership. Raises

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<v Speaker 1>deeper questions about who controls the coalition and how they'll

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<v Speaker 1>ever win again.

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<v Speaker 2>Because we know now that gen z and millennials are

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<v Speaker 2>the biggest group of voters in the Australian voting populace.

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<v Speaker 2>Now they are looking at climate change with alarm and

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<v Speaker 2>there's a growing body of research says that they expect

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<v Speaker 2>there's a credible policy on climate action.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Daniel James and you're listening to seven AM Today.

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<v Speaker 1>Press Gallery journalist Karen Middleton on the Liberal Party, the climate,

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<v Speaker 1>the killing season, the cup. It's Saturday, November fifteen. Karen,

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<v Speaker 1>this decision to scrap net zero was at a step

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<v Speaker 1>with public opinion and with science. So how is the

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<v Speaker 1>Liberal Party justifying it?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think we need to be clear this is

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<v Speaker 2>a political calculation that they're making. It's at least as

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<v Speaker 2>much about the politics as it is about the substance

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<v Speaker 2>of the policy. And certainly for Susan Lee, in the

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<v Speaker 2>context of her leadership, trying to stitch together to diametrically

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<v Speaker 2>opposed effectively sides of her party on this issue, in

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<v Speaker 2>particular the conservatives that hate the phrase net zero and

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<v Speaker 2>don't want really any rapid pace of reduction of fossil fuels,

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<v Speaker 2>and the moderates who accept that climate change is real

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<v Speaker 2>and they want the transition to renewable energy to happen

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<v Speaker 2>at speed. She has taken a political decision to try

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<v Speaker 2>and pull these two sides together with a kind of

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<v Speaker 2>hybrid of all positions.

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<v Speaker 3>Australians deserve affordable energy and responsible emissions reduction, and the

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<v Speaker 3>Liberal Party believes we can do both, but affordable energy

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<v Speaker 3>must come first.

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<v Speaker 2>I think one of the difficulties in selling this policy

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<v Speaker 2>to those disparate audiences is that they've got the statement

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<v Speaker 2>that they no longer support net zero greenhouse gas emissions

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<v Speaker 2>by twenty fifty.

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<v Speaker 3>And if elected, we will remove the forty three percent

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<v Speaker 3>twenty thirty target and it's net zero by twenty fifty

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<v Speaker 3>target from the Climate Change Act. They want to sort

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<v Speaker 3>of not be actively discouraging of achieving net zero emissions,

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<v Speaker 3>but they don't want to have a deadline and they

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<v Speaker 3>don't want to be bound to particular ways to get there.

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<v Speaker 1>So seasonally, you did say she still wants to reduce submissions.

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<v Speaker 1>What's their plan for how they'll actually go about doing that.

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<v Speaker 2>So they've put out a five page statement on all

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<v Speaker 2>the ways that they might be able to get better,

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<v Speaker 2>But they're leaning quite heavily on this idea of new technologies.

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<v Speaker 3>We've talked about supporting breakthrough technologies and repurposing funds to

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<v Speaker 3>do exactly that. That's what austrai as would expect of us.

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<v Speaker 2>They've still got nuclear in the mix. They're talking about

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<v Speaker 2>something they've talked about for a long time, which is

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<v Speaker 2>carbon capturing storage, which is trying to capture gases and

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<v Speaker 2>force them underground. And they're really hoping that technology will

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<v Speaker 2>develop so they don't have to take heavily interventionary steps

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<v Speaker 2>in the fossil fuel industry. But they are still wanting

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<v Speaker 2>to stay in the Paris Agreement, and the Paris Agreement

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<v Speaker 2>specifically says it doesn't use the phrase net zero, but

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<v Speaker 2>it specifically says Article four of that agreement says that

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<v Speaker 2>the objective is to get to a neutral position with

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<v Speaker 2>emissions by the end of the century.

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<v Speaker 3>We remain committed to the Paris Agreement and to doing

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<v Speaker 3>our fair share to reduce emissions, but we will do

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<v Speaker 3>it in a way that protects households and budgets and

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<v Speaker 3>keeps our economy strong.

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<v Speaker 2>So there is a slight contradiction in there. They don't

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<v Speaker 2>want to scale things back at the same pace that

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<v Speaker 2>the Labor government is doing it. They think that that's

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<v Speaker 2>been problematic. They want it to happen gradually, but not

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<v Speaker 2>having the Dea line means there is no incentive to

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<v Speaker 2>scale that back at pace.

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<v Speaker 1>So with walking away from that zero, what seats do

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<v Speaker 1>they think they could target with that decision.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the seats they have lost are the city seats.

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<v Speaker 4>You know.

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<v Speaker 2>The only one who regained a seat from the so

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<v Speaker 2>called Teals in those city previously baboo ribbon Liberal seats

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<v Speaker 2>was Tim Wilson in Melbourne in the seat of Goldstein. Otherwise,

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<v Speaker 2>those Teal seats that they lost in twenty twenty two

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<v Speaker 2>stayed lost at this last election. So there's still a

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<v Speaker 2>debate within the Liberal Party more widely as to whether

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<v Speaker 2>they want to target those seats to win them back

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<v Speaker 2>or whether they need to accept those city seats are lost.

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<v Speaker 2>Traditional Liberals are saying, well, we can't just let those

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<v Speaker 2>seats go. These are our heartland seats. How can we

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<v Speaker 2>hope to be back in government if we don't win

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<v Speaker 2>them back. So that debate rolls on inside the party.

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<v Speaker 2>But they are now hoping they've got a policy that

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<v Speaker 2>can peel across the board, that they've done enough. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>it's a tricky task politically speaking, and where are the

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<v Speaker 2>seats well that will be something that Liberal Party strategists

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<v Speaker 2>are going to have to work out over the next

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<v Speaker 2>couple of.

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<v Speaker 1>Years coming up. Well, Susan Lee's leadership survived the killing season.

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<v Speaker 1>There's no doubt that this is a major win for

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<v Speaker 1>the right of the party who are fought for scrapping

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<v Speaker 1>it zero. So is there a chance Karen that climate

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<v Speaker 1>is the first issue we see Susan Lee rolled on.

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<v Speaker 1>Could there be other issues like immigration for instance.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think the big thing is will she last

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<v Speaker 2>long enough for there to be other issues she gets

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<v Speaker 2>rolled on, because I think the real fundamental thing to

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<v Speaker 2>watch now is whether she survives this debate. She's now

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<v Speaker 2>pulled this policy together and she has to go out

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<v Speaker 2>and sell it, and whether that is seen as credible

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<v Speaker 2>or not will determine whether, I think whether she stays

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<v Speaker 2>in the leadership. And you are seeing conservatives coming out

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<v Speaker 2>and almost gloating, you know, almost boasting, taking credit Garth

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<v Speaker 2>Hamilton and Queensland Conservative. He was on Sky News of

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<v Speaker 2>the night that they made this decision. This policy was

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<v Speaker 2>forced through by the backbench. It's been backbenches like myself,

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<v Speaker 2>Tony Pass and Henry Pike have done all the heavy

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<v Speaker 2>lifting on this and force this through, and he pointedly

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<v Speaker 2>would not say that she will definitively lead them to

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<v Speaker 2>the next election.

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<v Speaker 3>Do you think Susan will be leader this time next year?

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<v Speaker 2>No, I'm not going to go in it for you today, Shari.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm sorry. I think we've got a huge.

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<v Speaker 1>Confidence in her leadership.

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<v Speaker 3>To say that you think she'll be still be a

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<v Speaker 3>leader in a year's time, I'm.

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<v Speaker 2>Not going to suggest anyone on that one for you, Shari,

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<v Speaker 2>I'm going to focus on today's great It was not

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<v Speaker 2>a resounding endorsement of her leadership, and that says that

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<v Speaker 2>this is the pivotal issue, that those conservatives are looking

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<v Speaker 2>at this as a pivotal issue, and that sort of

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<v Speaker 2>phalanx of conservatives around Angus Taylor and Andrew Hasty, that

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<v Speaker 2>suggests you're looking at a potential future leadership ticket from

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<v Speaker 2>the conservative side. And the question really is how long

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<v Speaker 2>do they give her before they move? And the sort

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<v Speaker 2>of attitude we're seeing would suggest that they think they

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<v Speaker 2>can take their time, let her struggle, and then move

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<v Speaker 2>when they're not going to be seen as tearing down

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<v Speaker 2>the first female leader Carol.

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<v Speaker 1>What has Susan Lee's handling of this shown about what

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<v Speaker 1>type of leader she is.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think one of the problems Susan Lee has

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<v Speaker 2>is that she was reticent to put a position at all.

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<v Speaker 2>So we've seen her step back and let this debate

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<v Speaker 2>play out in public, involving her own party and not

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<v Speaker 2>a certain position, and I'm not sure that that's the

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<v Speaker 2>most effective way to lead in a circumstance like this.

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<v Speaker 2>There is no perfect way, and she's in a diabolically

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<v Speaker 2>difficult position. She's taken on the leadership of the Liberal

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<v Speaker 2>Party in very difficult circumstances after a terrible loss. She

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<v Speaker 2>always talks about being smashed, and she's right.

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<v Speaker 3>We didn't just lose, we got smashed, totally smashed.

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<v Speaker 2>Nobody else wanted the leadership at this time, so points

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<v Speaker 2>to her for having the courage to step forward and

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<v Speaker 2>do that. But having not articulated a policy makes it

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<v Speaker 2>even harder because you sort of vacate the space, and

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<v Speaker 2>so her colleagues have then effectively been giving her advice

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<v Speaker 2>in public, sort of over her head, and she has

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<v Speaker 2>not engaged in the debate. It was interesting these events

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<v Speaker 2>this week coincided with the fiftieth anniversary of the dismissal

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<v Speaker 2>of the Whitlam government and just down the hill at

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<v Speaker 2>Old Parliament House we saw a day of seminars and

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<v Speaker 2>discussion about that, and one of the people talking there

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<v Speaker 2>was John Howard, the former Prime Minister, second longest serving

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<v Speaker 2>Liberal prime minister. He was talking about those days leading

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<v Speaker 2>up to the dismissal fifty years ago and the fact

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<v Speaker 2>that Malcolm Fraser had this hardline position to try and

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<v Speaker 2>block supply in the Senate, and there have been suggestions

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<v Speaker 2>since that some of those Liberal senators were really starting

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<v Speaker 2>to go a big wobbly and that they may not

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<v Speaker 2>have held out much longer had the Governor General not

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<v Speaker 2>stepped in.

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<v Speaker 4>He wanted to tough it out there, said he wasn't

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<v Speaker 4>about to back well, no, but there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 4>evidence that some senators were about to crack.

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<v Speaker 2>It was what he did say was very interesting in

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<v Speaker 2>the context of what was going on up the hill

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<v Speaker 2>because he then went on to talk about sort of leadership. Generally,

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<v Speaker 2>he didn't use the word leadership, but he talked about

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<v Speaker 2>the fact that Malcolm Fraser held the show together.

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<v Speaker 4>I didn't think that people were going to crack, but

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<v Speaker 4>I do give Fraser enormous credit for holding the show together,

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<v Speaker 4>and he spent a lot of time with people who

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<v Speaker 4>had doubts.

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<v Speaker 2>And he said, what you need to do as a

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<v Speaker 2>good leader is you talk to your backbench. He said,

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<v Speaker 2>Fraser kept in touch with his backbench. He constantly took

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<v Speaker 2>the temperature of the backbench. He reassured them about the strategy,

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<v Speaker 2>He kept them involved.

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<v Speaker 4>The relationship you have with the members of your parliamentary party,

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<v Speaker 4>your backbench is the most important of all and you

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<v Speaker 4>have to invest an enormous amount of time in it.

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<v Speaker 4>You can't delegate it to anybody, even as senior colleague.

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<v Speaker 4>You've got to do it yourself.

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<v Speaker 2>And that you need to do that as a leader.

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<v Speaker 2>And the implication was also you've got to take a position.

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<v Speaker 1>So as things stand at the moment, Karen, the opposition

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<v Speaker 1>of kind of like been out of action while they've

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<v Speaker 1>been undertaking all these sort of internal reflections over that

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<v Speaker 1>zero meaning that there really isn't any sort of challenge

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<v Speaker 1>to the government and the alban easy. So what do

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<v Speaker 1>we lose when the opposition is in the state the

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<v Speaker 1>coalition currently is in.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think it's not good. It's not good for government,

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<v Speaker 2>you know. I say that good government requires a good opposition.

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<v Speaker 2>Whatever the stripe, the greatest risk of a government losing

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<v Speaker 2>its way is when there is no substantive opposition. And

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<v Speaker 2>the one thing that I think a lot of the

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<v Speaker 2>people in the coalition are hoping that does unite them

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<v Speaker 2>at the moment, is it that having at least reached

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<v Speaker 2>a position on this climate and energy policy, now they

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<v Speaker 2>can pull together and they have something to say, and

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<v Speaker 2>they have a clear differentiation with the Labor government, and

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<v Speaker 2>they will try to push back on the way the

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<v Speaker 2>Labor government is managing the energy transition. And I think

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<v Speaker 2>whether they can hold that unity and whether they pull

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<v Speaker 2>in behind Susan Lee's leadership or whether there are still

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<v Speaker 2>those and I think there are in the Liberal Party

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<v Speaker 2>in particular who actually don't want to stick with her

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<v Speaker 2>and would find a way to replace her, remains to

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<v Speaker 2>be seen. That may be resolved before the end of

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<v Speaker 2>the year. We do have one more sitting week. We

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<v Speaker 2>love to call that the killing season, when parties like

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<v Speaker 2>to replace their leaders at the end.

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<v Speaker 1>Of the charm isn't it charming?

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<v Speaker 2>Little term that one, I know it's brutal. Or maybe

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<v Speaker 2>we go into next year and maybe Susan Lee triumphs

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<v Speaker 2>is so successful at prosecuting her arguments on this that

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<v Speaker 2>she secures her leadership. It's an unknown at the moment,

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<v Speaker 2>but I do think democracy is a poorer when we don't

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<v Speaker 2>have a properly functioning opposition, and that is a very

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<v Speaker 2>important thing as we go into what will be the

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<v Speaker 2>second year of the second term of the Albanezy government.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, Karen, it turns out that the coalition are into

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<v Speaker 1>Hybrid's hybrid policies. Thank you so much for your time.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks Daniel, Thanks having me.

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<v Speaker 1>Seven Am is a daily show from Solstice Media. It's

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<v Speaker 1>made by Aniicus Basto, Chris Danegate, Daniel James, Ruby Jones,

0:13:52.400 --> 0:13:58.160
<v Speaker 1>Sarah mcveee, Travis Evans and saltinfect Joy. Our theme music

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<v Speaker 1>is by Ned Beckley and Josh Horgan of Envalope Pordio.

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<v Speaker 1>This has been seven Am. Thanks for listening.