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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: The local share market surges as investors buy back into

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Speaker 1: tech stocks. A federal Liberal Party leadership spill looks likely

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Speaker 1: this week, and the number of very rich Australian surges

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Speaker 1: plus a drop in household spending complicates the interest rate outlook.

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Speaker 1: When we take a look at the best Super Bowl ads.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, the tenth of February twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Morning, Michael. Have you got your favorite Super Bowl ad?

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Speaker 1: I actually have. I've done plenty of research for this one.

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Speaker 1: It's my favorite part of the Super Bowl. So we'll

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Speaker 1: get to that a little bit later. Always an interesting

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Speaker 1: thing doing a visual story, yes, for a podcast medium,

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Speaker 1: but we will do it with Gusto. The main story

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Speaker 1: this morning, though, Sewan. The local share market had its

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Speaker 1: best day in nine months yesterday, with tech and mining

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Speaker 1: stocks pushing the SMPA SX two hundred up nearly two

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Speaker 1: percent to eight hundred and seventy points.

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Speaker 2: Quite the turnaround from late last week. Michael. It followed

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Speaker 2: a rebound on Wall Street. The tech sector has been

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Speaker 2: hit hard recently, we've spoken a lot about it, but

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Speaker 2: yesterday investors, well, they were happy with the Tech index

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Speaker 2: up three point three percent. So far this year, the

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Speaker 2: Tech index is down nearly eighteen percent, so three point

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Speaker 2: three percent is kind of cold comfort. Companies like Wise

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Speaker 2: Tech Global Zero, Next DC Technology one are among the

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Speaker 2: worst performers on the burs yesterday. The real estate stocks

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Speaker 2: also did well, somewhat perversely, because interest rates are rising

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Speaker 2: now property companies plenty of debt. You would think higher

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Speaker 2: interistrates is bad news, but early sciences reporting season suggests

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Speaker 2: the sector is holding up pretty well. One exceptions to

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Speaker 2: that Goodman Group both a tech stock and a data

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Speaker 2: center groups. Our property group it's not having a very

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Speaker 2: good time. But others like Shopping Mall Owners Center and Stockland,

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Speaker 2: Charter Hall Group, some of the convenience reets they've done well.

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Speaker 2: They've held up pretty well. Then, of course, there are

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Speaker 2: the miners. The gold diggers led the way yesterday. Is

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Speaker 2: the price of the precious metal pushback above five thousand

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Speaker 2: US dollars announce Just phenomenal that we are talking about

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Speaker 2: gold pushing back above five thousand US dollars an ounce.

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Speaker 2: Companies like Newmont evolution mining northern style led the way yesterday.

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Speaker 2: By the close, about ninety percent of stocks were high yesterday,

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Speaker 2: and you don't see that very often.

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Speaker 1: A sea of greenshawn the big four bank stocks. Banks

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Speaker 1: have had a decent run in recent sessions, and Commonwealth

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Speaker 1: Bank has now well and truly regained the mantle of

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Speaker 1: the biggest company over BHP. Westpac is now the asx

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Speaker 1: is third biggest company, followed by National Australian Bank and

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Speaker 1: A and Z.

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Speaker 2: So the Sullivan banking stocks really has been more about

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Speaker 2: the sell off in Commonwealth Bank. Having said that, over

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Speaker 2: the past week, comm Bank's up more than seven percent,

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Speaker 2: so it's actually had a bit of a rebound whilst

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Speaker 2: we weren't watching. It's reporting its half year results tomorrow,

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Speaker 2: so we'll find out more about that. It's now about

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Speaker 2: fifty's seen twenty billion dollars bigger than BHP. What surprised me.

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Speaker 2: Westpac's the third biggest company on the bors National Australian

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Speaker 2: Banks four. As you mentioned, ain Z is five. West

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Speaker 2: Back and AINZ have been the two best share ps

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Speaker 2: performers among the major banks have the past year. The

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Speaker 2: big four banks now make up about twenty percent of

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Speaker 2: the whole market. Now we talk a lot about the

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Speaker 2: miners BHP for Skew Metals in Rio, they make up

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Speaker 2: about eleven percent, which is about half that twenty percent level.

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Speaker 2: So it just shows the big banks still really are

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Speaker 2: all important. In fact, the top twenty stocks comprised about

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Speaker 2: fifty percent of the market all up back to the banks.

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Speaker 2: While Ainz's performance has in part reflected the fact that

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Speaker 2: it had been sold down so much, Westpac seems to

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Speaker 2: be the bank in pressing investors most We're not an

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Speaker 2: investment podcast, don't go and buy Westpac shares on this,

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Speaker 2: Go and see a financial advisor. But some professional investors

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Speaker 2: like the growth in its mortgage book, like the high

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Speaker 2: profile hirings it's done, and like the growing confidence around

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Speaker 2: cost control helping the banks rising interest rates, which should

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Speaker 2: be good for profit margins. We say all this, Michael,

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Speaker 2: but of course it is profit season. Come off bankicks

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Speaker 2: off tomorrow. This time three weeks. We might look back

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Speaker 2: at this story and say, Wow, everything's changed, or maybe not.

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Speaker 1: Yea, yeah, he got a great interview coming up after

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Speaker 1: the show. Sean mention this Now you're speaking today with

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Speaker 1: Ben Gilbert from Jardin about reporting season and about why

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Speaker 1: the buzzword of earning season this time around is probably

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Speaker 1: going to be volatility.

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Speaker 2: Yeah yeah, a bit like last season. Really yeah.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, now away from markets Sewan and into politics, it

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Speaker 1: looks like there's likely to be a leadership spill within

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Speaker 1: the Federal Liberal Party by the end of the week.

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Speaker 1: Angus Taylor likely to challenge leader Susan Lee.

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Speaker 2: Out of the fry pan into the fire. For Lee,

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Speaker 2: she did a deal with NAT's leader David Little Proud

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Speaker 2: to keep the coalition together on Sunday night. The very

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Speaker 2: next day, Canberra was above with speculation there'll be a

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Speaker 2: spill by the end of the week. The difficulties for

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Speaker 2: the challengers to Susan Lee is that Senate Estimates are sitting.

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Speaker 2: They sit really long hours. It's actually not that hard

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Speaker 2: to get all the Liberal It's not that easy to

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Speaker 2: get all the Liberals in a room together this week.

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Speaker 2: That's a bit of an issue. New momentum for a

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Speaker 2: challenge came on the back of The Australian's News poll.

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Speaker 2: It shows Lee as the most unpopular major party leader

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Speaker 2: in nearly twenty five years. The Newspole survey has a

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Speaker 2: coalition primary vote on eighteen percent, one nation at twenty

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Speaker 2: seven percent. The nine newspapers had similar numbers last week. Now,

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Speaker 2: Victorian Jane Hume, who's actually a moderate, so she's not

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Speaker 2: a conservative, she's a moderate, she said the party needs

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Speaker 2: to change course. So that ain't good news for Susan Lee.

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Speaker 2: Conservative senator Sarah Henderson said the leadership question needs to

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Speaker 2: be dealt with this week just looks like it's on.

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Speaker 1: Michael, Yeah, it does sound like it. And I was

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Speaker 1: mentioned in the Afternoon Report yesterday Sean that its interesting

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Speaker 1: that this News poll is probably the first that I

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Speaker 1: can remember that doesn't give a two party preferred split

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Speaker 1: for the vote because the coalition primary vote is just

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Speaker 1: so low. One nation is so high, but one nation

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Speaker 1: support is usually just on a few key seats rather

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Speaker 1: than every seat like the coalition is, so it just

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Speaker 1: makes that a little bit difficult. And I just thought

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Speaker 1: that was quite quite curious.

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Speaker 2: Really, Yeah, I mean I think they should just so

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Speaker 2: what the nine newspapers did was just assume that all

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Speaker 2: one nation second preference would be conservative or liberal and nats,

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Speaker 2: So that's how they did the two party preferred. But

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Speaker 2: I think what the odds has done yesterday is correct.

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Speaker 2: You should actually be giving it to one nation, given

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Speaker 2: it it's got the second highest primary vote. But that's

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Speaker 2: very hard to do.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, starts to get a little bit tricky. All right,

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Speaker 1: plenty silver come. We'll be back in a moment with

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Speaker 1: the rest of the day's business news. Sean Israeli President

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Speaker 1: Isaac Hertzog is visiting Australia, and yesterday he warned about

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Speaker 1: a global surge in antisemitism ahead of the Bondi terror

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Speaker 1: attack and put more pressure on the Albanezer government and

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Speaker 1: its security agencies over whether more could have been done

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Speaker 1: to prevent it.

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Speaker 2: Speaking after laying a wreef at Bondi Pavilion to one

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Speaker 2: of the fifteen victims, Herzog said he shared the frustrations

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Speaker 2: of Australia's Jewish community that more could have been done

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Speaker 2: to prevent the dead list attack against Jews since the

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Speaker 2: Harmas attack in Israel in October twenty twenty three. He said,

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Speaker 2: I've seen this wave surge all over the world. I've

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Speaker 2: seen it in many countries, including Canada, Great Britain, the

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Speaker 2: United States and Australia or English speaking countries. He's talking

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Speaker 2: about anti semitism there he said in Australia, it's anti

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Speaker 2: Semitism is not a Jewish problem, but an Australian problem.

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Speaker 2: I think that's probably right. The visit comes as the

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Speaker 2: Australian Security Intelligence Organization AZIO comes under renewed scrutiny over

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Speaker 2: whether warning signs were missed ahead of the Brondeye attack.

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Speaker 2: Now that's on the back of an ABC four Corners

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Speaker 2: investigation which last night, ASIO, interestingly, ahead of the airing

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Speaker 2: of that, said that there were a number of incorrect

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Speaker 2: facts in that report. But it certainly puts more pressure

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Speaker 2: on ASIO.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, certainly does. And meanwhile, the Royal Commission on Anti

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Speaker 1: Semitism and Social Cohesion, which was announced by Prime Minister

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Speaker 1: Anthony Aberenezi just before Christmas, it is going to cost

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Speaker 1: tax payers one hundred and thirty one point one million dollars.

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Speaker 2: That's according to the Attorney General's Department. Of course, one

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Speaker 2: of the reason given for not having a Royal Commission

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Speaker 2: was how expensive it was, just over ninety million dollars

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Speaker 2: that The allocated funding is for the commission's rent, staff

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Speaker 2: and witness support capability, and it includes a review of

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Speaker 2: intelligence agencies being conducted by former Defense Secretary Dennis Richardson

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Speaker 2: Attorney General's Department officials toll Senators, they expect the Commission

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Speaker 2: to have about sixty four full time staff and a

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Speaker 2: further twenty five staff in the department.

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Speaker 1: Sean, we need to get into some economics news now, yes, Michael, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: And I need you to explain this to me, because

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Speaker 1: this feels like it is going to get very difficult

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Speaker 1: for the Reserve Bank because household spending fell in December,

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Speaker 1: which just to me would change the overall economic picture

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Speaker 1: and the future trajectory of interest rates, which it was

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Speaker 1: all about this kind of household spending heating up and

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Speaker 1: everything getting a bit too hot.

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Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, so you're right, but probably mean it's more

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Speaker 2: than at the margins, but not a lot more so.

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Speaker 2: The household spending indicator fell by zero point four percent

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Speaker 2: in December, world below expectations after a couple of really

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Speaker 2: strong months. Some pullback had been expected, not a four.

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Speaker 2: It suggests that consumers are getting pretty canny and they're

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Speaker 2: shifted purchases to promotional periods, so rather than in the

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Speaker 2: right to Christmas, a lot of sales and the Black

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Speaker 2: Friday Cyber Monday sales were very strong on an annual basis,

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Speaker 2: The spending indicator is up five percent over the year,

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Speaker 2: which suggests growth was slowing by Christmas time. A few

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Speaker 2: things in that if growth is slowing, the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 2: has said household spending accelerating. Household spending is a reason

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Speaker 2: why we need to think about lifting interest rates. Well,

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure that's actually happening. It looks like it

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Speaker 2: could be slowing. The other one, which I think is

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Speaker 2: really interesting is the slumping tobacco and alcohol spending. Now,

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Speaker 2: some of that will be the black market cigarette argument,

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Speaker 2: which we know about, but people are definitely not drinking

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Speaker 2: as much. Fascinating, Yeah, that actually is.

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Speaker 1: It makes it sound like normally it's not interesting when

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Speaker 1: you tell me.

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Speaker 2: When you say that actually is, it's like, what about

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Speaker 2: the rest of the year.

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Speaker 1: I mean, obviously, you know it's all interesting. Sean read

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Speaker 1: everything you say is interesting, and I'm moving on quickly.

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Speaker 1: Challenger has made a bid for Pepper Money, one of

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Speaker 1: the country's largest non bank lenders, sending the latter's share

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Speaker 1: price up more than twenty five percent.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes a bid worth about one point one

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Speaker 2: five billion dollars. Pepper focused on focuses on lending to

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Speaker 2: borrowers who can't get financed from banks listed. In fact,

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Speaker 2: it really interesting history. Listed in twenty fifteen, pe bought

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Speaker 2: at twenty seventeen, listed again in May twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 2: and now Challenger is trying to buy it. Challenger, of course,

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Speaker 2: the fund manager and an annuities provider, said investing in

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Speaker 2: Pepper would fight strategic long term rights to access fixed

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Speaker 2: income assets that would grow returns in English. Buying Pepper

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Speaker 2: money expands what it does, what Challenger does, and its

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Speaker 2: diversifies risk.

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Speaker 1: Basically, here's one for you, Sean. Australia's high ultra high

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Speaker 1: net worth investor population has reached a record seven hundred

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Speaker 1: and sixty thousand, people collectively holding more than four trillion

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Speaker 1: dollars in investable assets. According to Investment Trends.

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Speaker 2: Ultra high net worth investors so more than ten million

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Speaker 2: dollars in assets. As opposed, they grew nine percent over

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Speaker 2: the past year to around thirty two thousand. Average portfolio

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Speaker 2: is up fourteen percent. So the overall high net worth

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Speaker 2: is seven hundred and sixty the ultra high net worth

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Speaker 2: is thirty two thousand listed assets. What's kind of I mean?

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Speaker 2: We know that a lot of rich people, but where

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Speaker 2: do they put their money? That's kind of why I'm

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Speaker 2: interested in this story. Listed assets, so share markets being

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Speaker 2: the primary here and overseas about fifty percent of investment allocation.

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Speaker 2: Property is about twenty five percent, cash is about ten percent,

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Speaker 2: and then alternatives is about the other fifteen percent. Now,

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Speaker 2: what's moving, So alternatives are things like private equity, venture capital,

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Speaker 2: private capital, and real assets, which are infrastructure and property

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Speaker 2: some property. What's interesting is the shift towards private capital

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Speaker 2: because that is definitely growing amongst these really rich people.

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Speaker 2: The research also shows growing demand for financial advice. About

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Speaker 2: two hundred thousand high networth wealth individuals now use advisors.

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Speaker 2: That's about twenty six percent, which I suggest that's seventy

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Speaker 2: four percent don't, which I think is quite surprising.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah, And it also kind of highlights the

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Speaker 1: challenge that we have within that industry, right as well,

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Speaker 1: that there is a need for a lot more financial advisors,

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Speaker 1: but it's often the people that can't necessarily afford to

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Speaker 1: pay for it that are going to need the help

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Speaker 1: the most.

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Speaker 2: Right So, yeah, but in this case, even the ones

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Speaker 2: that can afford to pay for it aren't using them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, indeed okay turn into international news now and

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Speaker 1: Japanese stocks jumped to record levels after Prime Minister Sanae

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Speaker 1: taka ICHI's landslide win in a snap general election has

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Speaker 1: investors best on her vision of a quote strong and

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Speaker 1: prosperous nation.

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Speaker 2: Yes, the nick Ey benchmark rose more than six percent

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Speaker 2: at one point yesterday hit a new record in Vecker's

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Speaker 2: Investors said the resurgent tag Ichi trade was driven by

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Speaker 2: the prospect that the Prime minister's unprecedented majority would allow

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Speaker 2: her to implement economic stimulus, follow through on her promises

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Speaker 2: to drive corporate investment, particularly in tech sectors. Now, this

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Speaker 2: does have implications for Australia because they need energy to

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Speaker 2: do all this, and we sell plenty of coal and

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Speaker 2: gas to Japan. It also includes spending on defense, and

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Speaker 2: of course Australia, with Japan and India and US make

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Speaker 2: up the quade Alliance, so that could be very beneficial

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Speaker 2: to local defense manufacturers. So some good news for Australian

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Speaker 2: business out of that election result. Over the weekend.

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Speaker 1: Sewn the Super Bowl has been played, with the Seattle

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Speaker 1: Seahawks beating the New England Patriots in front of an

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Speaker 1: estimated one hundred million viewers. But it was all really

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Speaker 1: if you ask me about the advertisements.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the game itself was a bit dull. They're

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Speaker 2: in touchdowns in the final quarter. I'd given up watching

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Speaker 2: by that point. According to Bloomberg, thirty second slot cost

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Speaker 2: about ten million US dollars. That's about twenty five percent

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Speaker 2: higher than last year best ads.

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Speaker 1: So what did you like?

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Speaker 2: Well, the Pringles ad was great with Sabrina Carpenter. I

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Speaker 2: think that has has got plenty of support as the

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Speaker 2: best ad. But the dunkin Donuts one for people of

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Speaker 2: my generation. It's basically a reimagination of the nineteen ninety

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Speaker 2: seven movie Goodwill Hunting, and you had like Jason Alexander

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Speaker 2: from Seinfeld, you had a couple of the people from Friends,

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Speaker 2: a couple from family, matters from Cheers or making these cameos.

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Speaker 2: I thought it was brilliant.

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Speaker 1: Got a couple of others to recommend to you if

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Speaker 1: you haven't watched them already. The Alexa ad with Chris Hemsworth, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that's that is a very very good one, just basically

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Speaker 1: him trying to picture all the ways that Alexa and

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Speaker 1: AI could try and kill him, and then the other

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Speaker 1: one I like two others. There's one with Kylie Jenner,

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Speaker 1: I think promoting an advertiser a sports betting company and

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Speaker 1: just why she is bad luck for any basketball player

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Speaker 1: who happens to be dating her, and she just that

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Speaker 1: to play the market to her advantage. And the other

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Speaker 1: one that I liked was actually a Jurassic Park at

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Speaker 1: a throwback to the original Jurassic Park, had all the

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Speaker 1: original Jurassic Park actors in it. Basically what happened if

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Speaker 1: they managed to get the Wi Fi turned back on

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Speaker 1: and all the dinosaurs stayed in their cages. It was fantastic,

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Speaker 1: some really creative ad.

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Speaker 2: Of course, the best ad ever I reckon the most

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Speaker 2: expensive at too, for that was the Amazon ad for

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Speaker 2: Alexa A couple of twenty twenty two. I think it

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Speaker 2: was the one with Scarlet Johnson and a husband, m

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Speaker 2: Colin Yost. His name was or Is went for ninety seconds.

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Speaker 2: You've got to go and look at it. It cost

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Speaker 2: twenty six million US to mate, right, so the most

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Speaker 2: expensive ad ever. And it's all about the two of them,

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Speaker 2: Colin and Scarlet going about their usual business and Alexa

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Speaker 2: was a mind reader, so right at the beginning it

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Speaker 2: sets up and Scarlet says to her husband, Alex can

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Speaker 2: read your mind. And then you know they're sitting there

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Speaker 2: and Alexa just says very inappropriate things. It's a cracking ad. Oh.

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Speaker 1: The other great Alexa one was the one almost where

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Speaker 1: they were introducing Alexa and they had it even had

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Speaker 1: like Anthony Hopkins and others all providing the voice for Alexa.

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Speaker 1: Go and check that one out, because that is an

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Speaker 1: absolute ripper and it's so sinister and so much fun. Clearly,

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Speaker 1: Alexa and Amazon have recognized the power of Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: advertising and put a fortune into it every single year.

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Speaker 1: And hey, as the viewers, we benefit from that.

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Speaker 2: Sean.

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Speaker 1: Now next Fear and Greed. Q and A mentioned this

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Speaker 1: earlier Ben Gilbert from Jardin, who every time we speak

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Speaker 1: to Ben pretty much sets a record for the number

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Speaker 1: of companies that he mentions and gives his opinion on. So,

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Speaker 1: if you are an investor, have a listen to that.

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Speaker 1: It's coming up next on your podcast platform or at

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Speaker 1: Fearangreed dot com. Today you nearly forgot where you can

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Speaker 1: find it. Sean, thank you, thank you, Michael. That's Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: the tenth of February twenty twenty six. Make sure you're

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Speaker 1: following the podcast and join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: ex TikTok and Facebook. Oh, Michael pumpson, and that was

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Speaker 1: fear and greed. Have a great day.