Speaker 1: So does anyone have like that messy couple in their
Speaker 1: lives who are constantly breaking up and then getting back
Speaker 1: together again. And every time they get back together, you
Speaker 1: have to pretend like it's going to last.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, they do.
Speaker 3: So that's the coalition right now.
Speaker 2: It's the on again, off again political drama that has
Speaker 2: turned Australian politics into something resembling a soap opera. For
Speaker 2: the second time in a year, the Liberal and National
Speaker 2: parties have split, rendering the coalition dead again. The breakups
Speaker 2: once again thrown Susan Lee's leadership under a bus, shattered
Speaker 2: the opposition's ability to challenge the government, and underscore deeper
Speaker 2: pressures from an ascendant One Nation. I'm Daniel James and
Speaker 2: you're listening to seven AM today contributing editor of the
Speaker 2: New Daily Amy Remikus on the breakup, the fallout and
Speaker 2: the ex sitting on the sidelines. You can't get enough
Speaker 2: for the spectacle. It's Saturday, January twenty four. I am.
Speaker 2: At the start of this week the PM was on
Speaker 2: the ropes over these bills. Now not only has he
Speaker 2: got them both passed through Parliament, but the heat is
Speaker 2: off him. So my question to you is is Albo
Speaker 2: a political genius or the luckiest man in politics?
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's actually a bit of both.
Speaker 1: And I mean before we talk about the political tactics here,
Speaker 1: it does need to be remembered that civil liberties have
Speaker 1: taken a pretty big hit in Australia this week with
Speaker 1: the passage of the Hate Bill in particular, and constitutional
Speaker 1: experts like Ann Toomey have raised concerns.
Speaker 3: Over the broadness of the bill.
Speaker 1: Lawyers, civil rights groups, even the IPA have raised a
Speaker 1: quite valid concerns about this bill.
Speaker 3: But when we talk about the politics of.
Speaker 1: This, if there's one thing that Anthony Albanizi is good at,
Speaker 1: it is thinking through how to screw someone over.
Speaker 3: That's what he's good at.
Speaker 1: He is not a fantastic communicator, but he is very
Speaker 1: good when activated on the politics. And I think this
Speaker 1: all started quite early on when Susan Lee and members
Speaker 1: of the Liberal Party were demanding that the government come
Speaker 1: back a recall Parliament and put through hate speech legislation,
Speaker 1: and fractures started very early on over who actually deserves
Speaker 1: protections on this. So Susan Lee was like, we need
Speaker 1: to look at vilification, we need to look at hate speech,
Speaker 1: and then members of her own party weeks ago started going, oh,
Speaker 1: but let's not go too far here. We don't necessarily
Speaker 1: think we need to extend this to the LGBTQ community.
Speaker 1: But it did set off a chain of events in
Speaker 1: the Liberal Party where they started talking about do we
Speaker 1: actually want.
Speaker 3: To do this.
Speaker 1: I think Anthony Albanizi spotted that fracture. He saw that
Speaker 1: the unity was not going to hold, and then he
Speaker 1: set about laying out some political land minds that he
Speaker 1: figured that Susan Lee would absolutely set off. And set
Speaker 1: them off she did.
Speaker 2: And so it all led to Thursday, a day that
Speaker 2: was supposed to be a day of mourning for the
Speaker 2: victims of the Bondai terror attacks. Susan Lee at least
Speaker 2: stayed silent in respect for the victims, but the Nationals
Speaker 2: were out pretty much everywhere talking about themselves, and the
Speaker 2: coalition split all day.
Speaker 4: Our party room has made it very clear we cannot
Speaker 4: be part of a shadow ministry under Susan Lee.
Speaker 1: Is the National Party made a principal decision on the
Speaker 1: hate laws.
Speaker 3: We're very glad to vote and lead on voting against.
Speaker 2: It's just about fixing people's problems. I feel like we
Speaker 2: fought and stood up for people.
Speaker 3: This week, I've received enormously positive fak So.
Speaker 1: Did the split surprise you, Aby, No, the split did
Speaker 1: not surprise me, and I don't think it should surprise
Speaker 1: anyone who has been watching this. The Coalition have not
Speaker 1: been united for a very long time, and when they
Speaker 1: split for that brief period back in May, they did
Speaker 1: not actually resolve any of the issues which led to
Speaker 1: the split.
Speaker 3: It's always been simmering under the surface.
Speaker 1: I was writing not so long ago that it wasn't
Speaker 1: going to last much more than after parliament started.
Speaker 3: That proved to be true.
Speaker 1: The Nationals have always wanted to lead the Liberal Party
Speaker 1: around and have when it comes to policy for the
Speaker 1: last thirty years or so. When we see the Liberal
Speaker 1: Party being pulled to the right, when we talk about,
Speaker 1: you know, the lack of moderates in the Liberal Party,
Speaker 1: that is a direct result of the Nationals dominating the
Speaker 1: Coalition policies in their fight against one Nation in their electorates.
Speaker 1: So it wasn't a surprise that this happened. I think
Speaker 1: the only surprise is that the Liberals didn't see it coming,
Speaker 1: that Susan Lee did not see these things coming, and
Speaker 1: also not a lot is being said. I think about
Speaker 1: how political David Little Proud was in all of this,
Speaker 1: in that he chose potentially the worst day he possibly
Speaker 1: could to do it.
Speaker 3: He did it on purpose. He could have done it
Speaker 3: the night before.
Speaker 1: There were several entreaties from Susan Lee's office and allies,
Speaker 1: and Susan Lee herself asking David Little Proud not to
Speaker 1: do it on the National Day of Mourning, to speak
Speaker 1: with her, to delay it, to see if they could
Speaker 1: work it out, and he didn't.
Speaker 3: He didn't entertain any of that.
Speaker 4: And if these three senators could not be accepted, then
Speaker 4: our coalition has become untenable. This process was it.
Speaker 1: He just got up in Queensland at eight thirty of
Speaker 1: non the National Day of Mourning, and decided to announce
Speaker 1: that the coalition was done.
Speaker 4: And this is the most disappointing moment that we had
Speaker 4: to get to, but unfortunately we find ourselves in it.
Speaker 3: Thanks Kevin, and he's done it to extend his own leadership.
Speaker 1: But even that in these circumstances is probably going to
Speaker 1: be brief.
Speaker 2: I mean, this is their second split up and just
Speaker 2: day over a year. Is it a sign that the
Speaker 2: Liberal Party and the National Party actually don't belong together.
Speaker 1: So I mean to understand how the Liberal Party got here,
Speaker 1: we do have to go back to nineteen ninety six
Speaker 1: when Pauline Hanson came on the scene. So Pauline Hansen
Speaker 1: was kicked out of the Liberal Party for her horrendous
Speaker 1: comments about Indigenous Australians. John Howard though, was leader of
Speaker 1: the Liberal Party then and he was open to hearing
Speaker 1: those views, and that basically gave permission for Pauline Hansen
Speaker 1: to trample around Australia and Queensland first and suck up
Speaker 1: a lot of the Liberal Party base. That has had
Speaker 1: massive ramifications, in particular for the National Party, who have
Speaker 1: now had to come out and try to out one Nation,
Speaker 1: one Nation, and in doing so it's dominated coalition policy
Speaker 1: because to beat one Nation, the Nationals have to be
Speaker 1: quite nationalists, quite out on the far right, very very conservative,
Speaker 1: bring in all the culture wars, and doing that has
Speaker 1: meant that the Liberals in the Inner City have been
Speaker 1: unable to defend their seats and we see the Liberal
Speaker 1: boat continuing to tank because in order for the Nationals
Speaker 1: to fight one Nation, you cannot have the Liberals fighting
Speaker 1: off Greens and independence in the inner city. It just
Speaker 1: does not work. So the Nationals are fighting one nation
Speaker 1: and they've looked at the polls, They've looked at Barnaby's defection.
Speaker 1: They know what that's going to mean, and they have
Speaker 1: panicked by saying we can do it too. We're not
Speaker 1: going to be led around by anyone in the Liberals
Speaker 1: who wants to try and tell us what to do,
Speaker 1: and we will blow up the show if we have to,
Speaker 1: if it means that we might have a chance at
Speaker 1: holding our own seats.
Speaker 2: It's clear that the Nets wants Susan Lee gone. Why
Speaker 2: do they want to gone? And how long do you
Speaker 2: think she can survive?
Speaker 1: They want to go on half of the Liberal party
Speaker 1: room wanna gone, probably more than half.
Speaker 3: It's really hard.
Speaker 1: For anyone to come in and lead an opposition after
Speaker 1: such a comprehensive loss. Susan Lee was the person who
Speaker 1: was handed the hospital pass to work out the mess.
Speaker 1: They still haven't done that. They haven't got their election review.
Speaker 1: They are still fighting. She hasn't been able to pull
Speaker 1: them into any particular position. They don't have any strong contenders,
Speaker 1: which may extend her leadership for a little bit longer,
Speaker 1: but you know, it's essentially on life support in political terms,
Speaker 1: and the people who are fighting it out Andrew Hasty
Speaker 1: and Angus Taylor. Angus Taylor is a Conservative who wants
Speaker 1: to try to take it back to being John Howard's
Speaker 1: Liberal Party. He's untouched by everything that has happened in
Speaker 1: Parliament because he was overseas when this vote happened, so
Speaker 1: he doesn't have any ownership of it. Andrew Hasty, who
Speaker 1: wants to go more down the one nation nationalist route
Speaker 1: for the Liberal Party. He's been burned by this vote
Speaker 1: because he told his supporters he was not going to
Speaker 1: vote for it, then after they removed Philification, he did.
Speaker 1: He's being absolutely torn apart by soft one nation voters
Speaker 1: and people who thought that he was going to make
Speaker 1: the Liberal Party more like one Nation. And there's no
Speaker 1: one really else that they can choose from in there.
Speaker 1: So it's going to be about does Angus Taylor want
Speaker 1: to take over the Liberal Party?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 1: If I was Angus Taylor, which you know, thankfully i'm not,
Speaker 1: and I'm sure he's thankful of that too, I would
Speaker 1: probably want the mess of the election review, which is
Speaker 1: going to be another very messy period for the coalition
Speaker 1: to come out first. I would want some sort of
Speaker 1: cohesive understanding of what the Nationals are going to do,
Speaker 1: and I would want some sort of, you know, at
Speaker 1: least assurance or confidence that the party wasn't going to
Speaker 1: have another kissy fit and dump me.
Speaker 3: As leader just before the next election.
Speaker 1: So so more than likely they're not. Susan Lee won't
Speaker 1: be leader after the next parliament sitting in February. But
Speaker 1: the thing that could save her is that does anyone
Speaker 1: else want that job right now?
Speaker 2: Coming up? Can the coalition get back together while the
Speaker 2: Liberals still don't know how to be alone? Amy? As
Speaker 2: you mentioned, we have heard recently the Liberal Party's internal
Speaker 2: review is done, but as being with hell because Peter
Speaker 2: Dutton says it, the famed him. Is it a reminder
Speaker 2: that the Liberal Party still has a truckload of soul
Speaker 2: searching to do and are they capable of that? Oh?
Speaker 1: I mean you could say truckload, you could say it
Speaker 1: be double load, you could say one of Jupiter's moons,
Speaker 1: like there is so much soul searching for this party
Speaker 1: to do and until.
Speaker 3: They actually work out.
Speaker 1: Okay, are we no longer a center right party? Are
Speaker 1: we're going to actually explicitly stop pretending that we still
Speaker 1: have moderates who have any sort of power in the
Speaker 1: Liberal Party. If they want to do that, that's fine.
Speaker 1: They're not going to win government anytime soon, but they
Speaker 1: can't have that discussion because they keep getting caught up
Speaker 1: in these leadership like squabbles.
Speaker 3: And what was.
Speaker 1: Completely underestimated in all of that was how the public
Speaker 1: was feeling, because when you look at the.
Speaker 3: Polls, you can see that alls.
Speaker 1: That happened is the Coalition went further backwards and that
Speaker 1: they potentially at the next election risk losing even more
Speaker 1: seats and they will probably lose them to One Nation
Speaker 1: and to Labor, and that's not great for anyone because Labor,
Speaker 1: in trying to win those coalition seats that they see opportunity,
Speaker 1: are going to move further to the right, or at
Speaker 1: the very least, they're not going to do any of
Speaker 1: the progressive reforms that people have said that they want
Speaker 1: them to do in polls and in voting results. So
Speaker 1: we're going to see another shift to the right in
Speaker 1: the Overton window because the Coalition cannot get it shitited together.
Speaker 2: Despite all of that, amy there were amusings late in
Speaker 2: the week that David Little Proud and Susan Lee, we're
Speaker 2: leaving the door Ajar for a possible reunion. Is that
Speaker 2: possible given the difference which now seem to be gaping,
Speaker 2: And where does that leave the possibility of a coalition
Speaker 2: long term?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 1: So does anyone have like that messy couple in their
Speaker 1: lives who are constantly breaking up and then getting back
Speaker 1: together again, And every time they get back together you
Speaker 1: have to pretend like it's going to last.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, they do.
Speaker 1: So that's the coalition right now. So like you know, sure,
Speaker 1: maybe like enough senior Nationals and liberals from outside the
Speaker 1: Parliamentary party intervene and say, guys, this is stupid. This
Speaker 1: is not what the Australian people want. You're concentrating on yourselves,
Speaker 1: You're not concentrating on the nation. This is doing nothing
Speaker 1: for cost of living, This is doing nothing to make
Speaker 1: Australian safer. And they get back together again, and everyone's
Speaker 1: going to pretend that it's great and go to the
Speaker 1: dinner parties and pretend, like, you know, just a week
Speaker 1: ago that they weren't just calling up every single person
Speaker 1: that they knew to talk about how terrible they were
Speaker 1: and how glad they were to be free. Probably if
Speaker 1: they get back together again, they will split up again
Speaker 1: because David Little Brown will do anything to hold on
Speaker 1: to his own leadership at the moment, because he might
Speaker 1: have got rid of Barnaby Joyce, but he's now going
Speaker 1: up against Matt Canavan, who's absorbed that de facto Barnaby
Speaker 1: Joyce role within the Nationals of being the disruptor.
Speaker 2: Let's talk about David Little Proud. Is his leadership secure
Speaker 2: in the short do medium term?
Speaker 1: I think it's secure in the short term. I wouldn't
Speaker 1: say that it's secure in the medium turn. I think
Speaker 1: he knows that. I think that's one of the main
Speaker 1: reasons why he has done this. I mean, he did
Speaker 1: not take Susan Lee's calls. He did not listen to anybody.
Speaker 3: He just pulled them. And he's trying to shore up
Speaker 3: his own.
Speaker 1: Electorate because he is one of the politicians under the
Speaker 1: biggest threat of One Nation. If it's vote holds, they've
Speaker 1: got a very big foundation in Marinoa already of One
Speaker 1: Nation taking his seat.
Speaker 3: Labor voters in Marinoa are more likely than.
Speaker 1: Not to put One Nation ahead of the Nationals and
Speaker 1: Barnaby Joyce knows it, and Barnaby Joyce hates David Little Proud.
Speaker 1: He is personally invested in the downfall of David Little Proud.
Speaker 3: And the happiest person in the.
Speaker 1: Country right now is Barnaby Joyce, who has been gleefully
Speaker 1: running around Canberra publicly and privately talking about how.
Speaker 3: Wonderful and amazing this all is.
Speaker 2: Amy, You've warned that we're about to see the worst
Speaker 2: of our politics this year. Has the first sitting week
Speaker 2: of Parliament made you reassess your prediction.
Speaker 1: No, if anything, it's made me double down and you
Speaker 1: really need to start looking out for, you know, just
Speaker 1: marginalized and vulnerable people in your life, because their identities
Speaker 1: are going to be used as political flashpoints in what
Speaker 1: is basically a culture war tantrum that's going to be
Speaker 1: played out in our national Parliament. And we're not about
Speaker 1: to see any sort of Trump style like disruption in
Speaker 1: terms of Pauline Hanson or Barnaby Joyce becoming Prime Minister.
Speaker 1: That's not going to happen. But we are going to
Speaker 1: see people carry out some of their worst instincts, both
Speaker 1: politically and culturally.
Speaker 3: Because when the politicians.
Speaker 1: Are openly debating whether somebody is allowed to feel a
Speaker 1: certain way about their existence, their identity and just living
Speaker 1: their lives as the person they are. When that becomes
Speaker 1: like something that you can make political grisk out of,
Speaker 1: it's bad for the whole country because the politicians will
Speaker 1: give permission for it, and then the worst aspects of
Speaker 1: Australian society will run rampant with it.
Speaker 2: Amy Remikus, thank you so much for your time.
Speaker 3: Thank you.
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