1 00:00:05,880 --> 00:00:08,600 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed business Interview. I'm Sean Almer. 2 00:00:08,720 --> 00:00:11,960 Speaker 1: The tie up between Qatar Airways and Virgin Australia was 3 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:16,120 Speaker 1: supposed to increase competition and reduce airfares for travelers, particularly 4 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:19,120 Speaker 1: those heading to Europe. But as we enter the northern 5 00:00:19,160 --> 00:00:22,800 Speaker 1: summer and demand increases for flights to Europe, that hasn't 6 00:00:22,920 --> 00:00:25,320 Speaker 1: exactly happened yet. On the other hand, fights to the 7 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:28,120 Speaker 1: US are suddenly a lot more affordable. I wanted to 8 00:00:28,160 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: get a picture of the state of the aviation industry 9 00:00:30,520 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: and what it all means for passengers. Jeffrey Thomas is 10 00:00:33,040 --> 00:00:35,519 Speaker 1: one of the best known aviation commentators in the country. 11 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 1: He's the founder and editor in chief of forty two 12 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: thousand feet. I'm going to give you the website because 13 00:00:40,680 --> 00:00:44,040 Speaker 1: it is well worth a visit for two kft dot 14 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 1: com forty two thousand feet for two kft dot com. 15 00:00:47,200 --> 00:00:49,519 Speaker 1: It's a new venture. Among other things, he's introduced the 16 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:54,000 Speaker 1: world's first holistic environmental ranking for airlines. We'll get to 17 00:00:54,040 --> 00:00:56,760 Speaker 1: that a little later, but firstly, Jeffrey, welcome back to 18 00:00:56,800 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 1: Fear and Greed. 19 00:00:57,680 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 2: Thank you very much. It's great to be here. 20 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:02,800 Speaker 1: We're heading into the northern summer. What's it mean for 21 00:01:02,880 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 1: airfares right now? 22 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:09,760 Speaker 2: Well, look, airfares are still kind of crazy. There's still 23 00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 2: capacity problems. You've got airlines like Quantas still to bring 24 00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 2: aeroplanes back into their fleet, Katara courses expanding at a 25 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 2: great rate, so as Emirates and a few others. But 26 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:27,240 Speaker 2: there's no stability yet in the airfares. We haven't seen 27 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 2: them return internationally back to twenty nineteen levels. Hopefully by 28 00:01:33,800 --> 00:01:38,920 Speaker 2: the end of the year things will stabilize and the 29 00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:43,000 Speaker 2: normal patterns will resume, but for the moment, it's still 30 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:44,160 Speaker 2: a bit chaotic. 31 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:46,960 Speaker 1: Does that mean there are good deals if you happen 32 00:01:47,000 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 1: to be able to find them, or does it mean 33 00:01:48,760 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: that there aren't any good deals? 34 00:01:50,680 --> 00:01:53,800 Speaker 2: No, Look, there are good deals, and I recommend to 35 00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 2: my friends and colleagues go see a travel agent because 36 00:01:57,080 --> 00:02:01,320 Speaker 2: there are all sorts of deals out there, aside from 37 00:02:01,680 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 2: the seat sales that we're seeing more of all of 38 00:02:04,120 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 2: a sudden. Quatus has had a couple recently, so have 39 00:02:07,960 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 2: Virgin They're domestic and or international, So yes, there are 40 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 2: brief seat sales that are out there. I haven't seen 41 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:19,480 Speaker 2: any from people like the Middle Eastern carriers or Singapore 42 00:02:19,480 --> 00:02:22,560 Speaker 2: Airlines for instance, but there's been a few from Quantas 43 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 2: and Virgins, So yeah, there is activity in that space 44 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 2: starting to happen. 45 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 1: Has the Virgin Qatar tie up made much of a 46 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:37,639 Speaker 1: difference in terms of fairs for Australians Yet, Look, it's. 47 00:02:37,520 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 2: A little bit hard to say at this stage because 48 00:02:40,880 --> 00:02:43,360 Speaker 2: one of the things that's happening, for instance, out of 49 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 2: Perth where I live, the introduction of the Triple seven, 50 00:02:48,160 --> 00:02:52,839 Speaker 2: which Virgin's going to use guitar triple seven. That has 51 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:58,079 Speaker 2: also corresponded with Qatar removing their A three eighty from 52 00:02:58,160 --> 00:03:01,239 Speaker 2: the route and replacing it all also with a triple seven. 53 00:03:01,680 --> 00:03:05,240 Speaker 2: So while there's a double daily now, whether it's under 54 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:10,080 Speaker 2: the Virgin banner or the Qatar banners, guitar metal, the 55 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:13,440 Speaker 2: A three eighty has been taken away and so you've 56 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:16,720 Speaker 2: got a you've got a seat reduction in that space, 57 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 2: although overall there's an increase in capacity, but not as 58 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:22,000 Speaker 2: great as you'd think. 59 00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:24,600 Speaker 1: Just asn't a site. I mean, you know, anyone that's 60 00:03:24,760 --> 00:03:27,240 Speaker 1: been in A three eighty is in awe of that 61 00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 1: particular playing the triple seventh. The Dreamliner is a lot 62 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:32,760 Speaker 1: more efficient I kind of get all that, but it's 63 00:03:32,760 --> 00:03:35,240 Speaker 1: just interesting that the economics of a Dreamliner is touch 64 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 1: that you can put two Dreamliners per A three eighty 65 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:39,160 Speaker 1: and it makes it worth it. 66 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 2: Oh, look, absolutely well. The basis of that is that 67 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 2: the Dreamliner uses approximately thirty four percent less fuel per 68 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 2: passenger in a Quantus configuration. And I might mention the 69 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:54,760 Speaker 2: Quantus configuration for the seven eight, seven to nine is 70 00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:57,920 Speaker 2: only about two hundred and thirty six seats, whereas an 71 00:03:57,920 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 2: in New Zealand one, for instance, has two hundred sixty 72 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 2: five seats. So the dreamline of the Quantus user is 73 00:04:05,160 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 2: configured for these ultralong range flights nonstops to Paris and 74 00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,320 Speaker 2: Rome and London. Therefore they've got a lower seat count. 75 00:04:14,160 --> 00:04:17,400 Speaker 2: But even that thirty four percent less fuel per passenger 76 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:21,040 Speaker 2: than a Quantus A three eighty. So there's a very 77 00:04:21,040 --> 00:04:27,039 Speaker 2: compelling reason to go to these super efficient twin engine aircraft. 78 00:04:27,240 --> 00:04:30,480 Speaker 1: You mentioned Quantus. How is Quantus traveling at the moment. 79 00:04:30,560 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 1: It's had a tumultuous two or three years, but things 80 00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:35,440 Speaker 1: seem to have settled down. 81 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:38,920 Speaker 2: Look, it has and as you would know, Sean, as 82 00:04:38,960 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 2: you would well know, a lot of that was the 83 00:04:41,839 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 2: tabloid media ripping into it, and I don't think they 84 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:50,280 Speaker 2: understood the dynamics coming out of COVID, where there was 85 00:04:50,320 --> 00:04:54,480 Speaker 2: a huge shortage of parts, delays in delivery of aircraft. 86 00:04:55,000 --> 00:04:58,359 Speaker 2: There was all sorts of problems getting staff back, not 87 00:04:58,600 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 2: just in the airline, but air traffic control, baggage handlers, 88 00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 2: all the supplementary support for the aviation industry. And it 89 00:05:06,720 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 2: wasn't just a quantus problem. It was a global problem. 90 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:12,800 Speaker 2: And that's something that really wasn't understood. But having said that, 91 00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:15,720 Speaker 2: yes they had plenty of problems, no question about it, 92 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:20,839 Speaker 2: and they really got attacked. But those problems are abating. 93 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:24,599 Speaker 2: They're still not over their last day. Three eighty comes 94 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 2: back in January next year. They're a three fifty one thousands. 95 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:32,320 Speaker 2: That's that new super Project Sunrise airplane that's going to 96 00:05:32,360 --> 00:05:35,479 Speaker 2: go from Sydney to London NonStop, Sydney in New York NonStop. 97 00:05:35,760 --> 00:05:38,559 Speaker 2: That's now running seven to eight months late and won't 98 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:42,600 Speaker 2: be delivered until late twenty twenty six, so that service 99 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 2: is going to be delayed somewhat. So there are still 100 00:05:45,120 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 2: problems for them, but they are getting better, albeit slowly. 101 00:05:49,640 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 1: Jeff, stay with it. We'll be back in a minute. 102 00:05:59,080 --> 00:06:01,839 Speaker 1: I'm talking to Jeff Thomas from forty two thousand feet 103 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 1: Environmental Rankings. 104 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:05,159 Speaker 2: This is your. 105 00:06:05,000 --> 00:06:09,200 Speaker 1: Bread and butter nowadays. Which airlines top the list? Or firstly, 106 00:06:09,240 --> 00:06:11,279 Speaker 1: how do you work it out? How do you create 107 00:06:11,320 --> 00:06:13,800 Speaker 1: a list and which airlines top the list? 108 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:16,840 Speaker 2: Well, that's a good question. How do we rank it? Now? 109 00:06:16,839 --> 00:06:19,039 Speaker 2: There are other people who do this, but what they 110 00:06:19,080 --> 00:06:22,680 Speaker 2: do is they look at the current fuel consumption and 111 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:27,120 Speaker 2: they look at how much sustainable aviation fuel is used 112 00:06:27,160 --> 00:06:30,160 Speaker 2: by the airline. But for us, that's not really a measure. 113 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:34,200 Speaker 2: Our measure is what the airline is doing in the 114 00:06:34,400 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 2: long term, not just aspiration or comments like yes, we're 115 00:06:39,560 --> 00:06:44,120 Speaker 2: headed for zero net zero by twenty fifty, that's a given. 116 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:47,600 Speaker 2: That's the aspiration for all the airlines. What are you 117 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 2: actually doing about it? So we look at the airlines 118 00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,520 Speaker 2: fleet age at the moment, We look at the fleet 119 00:06:54,600 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 2: renewal program in particular, like Quantus for instance, it's got 120 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:01,760 Speaker 2: about two hundred air on order. United Airlines is the 121 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:05,240 Speaker 2: biggest airline in the world, approximately the biggest airline in 122 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:08,280 Speaker 2: the world with about one thousand aircraft. They've got seven 123 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:13,040 Speaker 2: hundred on order. Seven half and what they've just done 124 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 2: is they've just ordered two hundred. They're given Jets zero 125 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 2: in Long Beach, California, a conditional order for two hundred 126 00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:26,480 Speaker 2: of their flying Wing concept, about a two hundred and 127 00:07:26,560 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 2: fifty passenger aircraft that will burn fifty percent less fuel 128 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 2: than the aircraft it will replace. That's an enormous investment 129 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 2: and it's enabling people like Jet zero to raise capital 130 00:07:40,080 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 2: to get the aircraft built now. So we're looking at 131 00:07:43,480 --> 00:07:47,960 Speaker 2: things like that their long term firm commitments, and other 132 00:07:48,000 --> 00:07:52,559 Speaker 2: airlines like mentioned Quantas again if I can, they're making 133 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:57,920 Speaker 2: big investments in sustainable aviation fuel companies, and there are 134 00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:03,320 Speaker 2: others that are looking at an ordering hybrid electric aircraft, 135 00:08:03,520 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 2: not these little four passenger things. We don't count those. 136 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:14,080 Speaker 2: This is a twenty thirty passenger hybrid electric turboprop aircraft 137 00:08:14,320 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 2: from Heart Aerospace in Sweden. So we're looking at things 138 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 2: like that to get to our rankings. You ask which 139 00:08:21,600 --> 00:08:24,800 Speaker 2: are the best airlines? Well Quarters scores a ten out 140 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 2: of ten. In New Zealand a ten out of ten. 141 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 2: United air Asia again a ten out of ten. So 142 00:08:31,600 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 2: there's quite a few that do score the top mark 143 00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:39,599 Speaker 2: of ten because they are firmly committed to a rejuvenation 144 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 2: of their fleet, investment and sustainable aviation fuel and investment 145 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,360 Speaker 2: in brand new technology aircraft. 146 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:51,320 Speaker 1: Without getting too nerdy on this aviation fuel or green 147 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 1: aviation fuel, how far away is it, Well. 148 00:08:55,400 --> 00:08:59,319 Speaker 2: We're already using it. And the issue is the feedstock 149 00:09:00,040 --> 00:09:03,720 Speaker 2: and that's the big environmental issue to get enough feedstock 150 00:09:04,040 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 2: to get refineries to produce it. And the other problem 151 00:09:07,440 --> 00:09:11,880 Speaker 2: with sustainable aviation fuel is more expensive than jet fuel, 152 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:14,680 Speaker 2: and that's one of the problems, for instance, with something 153 00:09:14,720 --> 00:09:18,920 Speaker 2: like hydrogen. People talk about hydrogen as a magic bullet. 154 00:09:19,360 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 2: Now Airbus is just put back by ten years their 155 00:09:23,120 --> 00:09:27,080 Speaker 2: hydrogen concept aircraft from twenty thirty five to twenty forty 156 00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 2: five because of the technology problems. But the other problem 157 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 2: with hydrogen is that it's four times the cost of 158 00:09:34,200 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 2: jet fuel and it takes up four times the volume 159 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 2: of jet fuel. So there is a lot of challenges 160 00:09:42,040 --> 00:09:45,600 Speaker 2: when it comes to things like alternative fuels like hydrogen. 161 00:09:45,840 --> 00:09:50,120 Speaker 2: But back to SAFF sustainable aviation fuel, the big issue 162 00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 2: is developing it with the feedstocks required and getting those 163 00:09:54,160 --> 00:09:57,680 Speaker 2: feedstock certified. For instance, air Asia at the moment is 164 00:09:57,720 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 2: trying to get palm oil certified as a sustainable aviation fuel, 165 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 2: and there's quite a few challenges around getting that done. 166 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:11,480 Speaker 2: So there are a variety of problems with SAFF. 167 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:15,920 Speaker 1: So are the carriers that in a sense of doing 168 00:10:15,920 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 1: most of the moment, they're doing it more on the 169 00:10:18,360 --> 00:10:21,560 Speaker 1: side of just more efficient uses of jet fuel, so 170 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:25,520 Speaker 1: aircraft that use it more efficiently rather than SAFF or 171 00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:26,400 Speaker 1: it's a bit of both. 172 00:10:27,160 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 2: Look, it's about the environmental focus of the airline and 173 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:35,679 Speaker 2: all the airlines recognize that they have got to do 174 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:40,559 Speaker 2: something to reduce the amount of fuel. I mean, one 175 00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 2: of the things we should mention here. Since nineteen sixty 176 00:10:43,920 --> 00:10:48,439 Speaker 2: the aviation industry has reduced the amount of fuel used 177 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 2: on an aeroplane per passenger by about eighty two percent. 178 00:10:53,320 --> 00:10:58,320 Speaker 2: It's an amazing technology all built around the jet engine, 179 00:10:58,360 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 2: basically the efficiency of the jet engine and the size 180 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 2: of the jet engine and other dynamics. But air traveler 181 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:08,559 Speaker 2: is doubling every ten to fifteen years. So they know 182 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 2: that even though we're reducing and have reduced fuel burn, 183 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:17,440 Speaker 2: we've got to do something to combat the amount of 184 00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:20,880 Speaker 2: fuel that is used. So airlines are saying we've got 185 00:11:21,000 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 2: we've got to invest in SAFF that is something that 186 00:11:24,040 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 2: cuts the fuel the actual CO two by eighty percent, 187 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:32,000 Speaker 2: so it's a big focus for environmentally conscious airlines. 188 00:11:32,440 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 1: Fascinating, Jeffrey, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 189 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 1: Pleasure that it's Jeffrey Thomas, founder and editor in chief 190 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:40,719 Speaker 1: of forty two thousand feet. If you want to check 191 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:44,240 Speaker 1: it out four two kft dot com for two kft 192 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 1: dot com, this is the Fear and Greed Business Interview. 193 00:11:48,040 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 1: Join us every morning for the full episode our Fear 194 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:52,280 Speaker 1: and Greed at daily business use for people who make 195 00:11:52,280 --> 00:12:00,319 Speaker 1: their own decisions. I'm Sean Elmert. I Joy your day.