1 00:00:06,000 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greek Q and A, where we 2 00:00:07,760 --> 00:00:11,719 Speaker 1: ask and answer questions about business, investing, economics, politics and more. 3 00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:14,400 Speaker 1: I'm Sean Alma. We're only a month into twenty twenty 4 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:16,640 Speaker 1: six and already it's shaping up to be a very 5 00:00:16,680 --> 00:00:19,279 Speaker 1: interesting year for investors. So what's in store? Where are 6 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:22,439 Speaker 1: the opportunities and where are the risks? Remember this is 7 00:00:22,480 --> 00:00:25,240 Speaker 1: general information only. Should always seek advice Taylor to your 8 00:00:25,239 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 1: circumstances before making investment decisions. Roger Montgomery's the founder and 9 00:00:29,120 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: chief investment officer of Montgomery Investment Management and great supporter 10 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,080 Speaker 1: of this podcast. Roger, welcome back to Fear and Greed. 11 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:37,839 Speaker 2: Great to be with you again Sean, and a belated 12 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:38,480 Speaker 2: happy new year. 13 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:40,479 Speaker 1: He's same to you, Same to you, Roger. Look, I 14 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:43,280 Speaker 1: want to talk about the year ahead, but just quickly, 15 00:00:43,280 --> 00:00:45,760 Speaker 1: when you strip away the headlines, what were the main 16 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:49,280 Speaker 1: themes that mattered for investors in twenty twenty five. 17 00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 2: Well, of course, we started with the euphoria of the 18 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:56,440 Speaker 2: AI boom, and then what happened was we shifted to 19 00:00:56,520 --> 00:01:00,520 Speaker 2: a much more complex reality around Trump two point zero policy. 20 00:01:00,680 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 2: So there was a massive shift in global power dynamics. 21 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:08,039 Speaker 2: We saw a search of value beyond the Magnificent seven. 22 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 2: And then the biggest one of all was what we 23 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:15,080 Speaker 2: call the Great broadening, so the move away from US 24 00:01:15,400 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 2: major companies or large caps into other things. Small caps 25 00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 2: finally outperformed US. Exceptionalism gave way to a sort of 26 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 2: a broader recognization that there are other opportunities outside of 27 00:01:29,600 --> 00:01:33,400 Speaker 2: the United States. European stocks beat US stocks by twenty 28 00:01:33,440 --> 00:01:37,880 Speaker 2: three percent, Chinese stocks beat US stocks by twenty one percent, 29 00:01:37,920 --> 00:01:42,000 Speaker 2: in Japan by ten percent, and emerging markets thrashed US stocks, 30 00:01:42,080 --> 00:01:45,679 Speaker 2: beating the market by almost by over a third. And 31 00:01:45,760 --> 00:01:50,440 Speaker 2: so global markets outperformed small caps outperformed. That was pretty good. 32 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 2: And then of course we saw gold and silver rally 33 00:01:54,880 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 2: significantly on the back of d what we call d dollarization, 34 00:01:58,760 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 2: so a move away from the US dollar, and that 35 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:04,600 Speaker 2: US dollar plummeted. It actually fell twelve percent against the 36 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 2: euro at twelve, fell thirteen percent against the Swiss franc 37 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 2: and believe it or not, it fell thirty nine percent 38 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 2: against gold. 39 00:02:12,520 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 1: Wow. 40 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:15,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, so there are some big you know, some big moves. 41 00:02:15,840 --> 00:02:18,760 Speaker 2: I mean, if you're sitting in Australia, you're kind of 42 00:02:18,760 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 2: removed from it all. 43 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:22,240 Speaker 1: But it was a lot happening, So is it a 44 00:02:22,240 --> 00:02:26,320 Speaker 1: paradigm shift or is it just a one off. What 45 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:28,640 Speaker 1: I'm wondering is as we go into twenty twenty six, 46 00:02:29,320 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 1: are these themes going to continue? 47 00:02:31,960 --> 00:02:33,839 Speaker 2: Some of them will, but I think I think what's 48 00:02:33,840 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 2: important for investors to take away is that it is 49 00:02:36,200 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 2: absolutely now impossible to correlate markets with current events. You 50 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:46,639 Speaker 2: just can't explain markets based on what's happening because there 51 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 2: doesn't seem to be. There seems to be deeper, longer 52 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:54,799 Speaker 2: term themes that are driving markets rather than short term. 53 00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 2: The short term reactions are more muted than they have 54 00:02:58,280 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 2: been before you and I have been in It's long 55 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 2: enough to know that you know Venezuela, a regime change 56 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:07,840 Speaker 2: in Venezuela by the United States, or you know military 57 00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 2: build up outs in the Middle East and threats to 58 00:03:12,000 --> 00:03:15,919 Speaker 2: Tehran that would cause in any other year that would 59 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:20,079 Speaker 2: cause markets to plunge. Any of those announcements would trigger 60 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 2: a crash, and yet markets are pretty muted. So I 61 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 2: think there are deeper, longer term themes that seem to 62 00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:29,800 Speaker 2: be driving markets and that will continue in twenty twenty six. 63 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:33,320 Speaker 2: Oil markets are going to remain on edge. I think 64 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:35,960 Speaker 2: because of this build up in the Middle East, and 65 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:38,040 Speaker 2: you know, we haven't even talked about Greenland yet. Who 66 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:43,280 Speaker 2: knows whether that's actually something that Trump is proposing that's real, 67 00:03:43,760 --> 00:03:46,000 Speaker 2: or whether it's just a distraction or a decoy. You 68 00:03:46,080 --> 00:03:46,560 Speaker 2: just never know. 69 00:03:47,720 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: With that, you know, I mean, a more mooted reaction. 70 00:03:50,760 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 1: How should investors think about the US? And there are 71 00:03:53,560 --> 00:03:56,119 Speaker 1: US exposures then right now and as we head into 72 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:57,640 Speaker 1: this year, well. 73 00:03:57,440 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 2: There's obviously a bull case and a bear case. So 74 00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:03,160 Speaker 2: what I'll do is probably talk about both of them. 75 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 2: The bull case is perhaps best best described or best 76 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:11,960 Speaker 2: explained by Ed Yardini, who's probably the most vocal bull 77 00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:14,680 Speaker 2: on Wall Street at the moment. He says that the 78 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:16,719 Speaker 2: S and P five hundred is going to rise about 79 00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 2: twelve and a half percent this year and going to 80 00:04:19,720 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 2: get to about seven than seven hundred, and then further 81 00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:25,720 Speaker 2: out he thinks that the S and P could hit 82 00:04:25,760 --> 00:04:30,599 Speaker 2: ten thousand in three years, which is substantial. His logic 83 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 2: is pretty simple. He thinks that earnings per share are 84 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 2: going to grow from about two hundred and eighty six 85 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:39,600 Speaker 2: dollars per share on the S and P five hundred 86 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:43,040 Speaker 2: last year to about three hundred and ten this year 87 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:46,240 Speaker 2: and then three hundred and fifty in twenty twenty seven, 88 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 2: and if you multiply that by twenty two times, which 89 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 2: he thinks is a reasonable pe ratio, that's how he 90 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:54,840 Speaker 2: gets to that twelve and a half percent game because 91 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,080 Speaker 2: he thinks by the end of twenty six, the market 92 00:04:57,080 --> 00:05:01,040 Speaker 2: will start pricing in twenty twenty seven earnings. So that's 93 00:05:01,279 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 2: that's I guess the bull argument that earnings are going 94 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 2: to grow, and they're going to grow significantly, and they're 95 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 2: going to grow significantly because there's going to be efficiency 96 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:12,920 Speaker 2: gains that are going to come out of AI. We're 97 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 2: going to shift from that you know what AI could 98 00:05:16,920 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 2: potentially achieve to real you know, hitting the ground running 99 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 2: kind of productivity gains. So that's you know, that's that one. 100 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:29,159 Speaker 2: And he actually goes further and he says that twenty 101 00:05:29,200 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 2: twenty six could be a rare year where analysts start 102 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:36,360 Speaker 2: to actually, throughout the year upgrade their earnings, so as 103 00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:40,240 Speaker 2: the year progresses, they lift their earnings estimates. Now, historically 104 00:05:40,240 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 2: that's pretty much never happened. You know, what happens, What 105 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 2: tends to happen is everyone starts very optimistically and then 106 00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:51,080 Speaker 2: starts bringing their numbers down. The bear case is what 107 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:53,520 Speaker 2: we talked about perhaps at the end of last year, Sean, 108 00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,159 Speaker 2: and that is that you know you've got We know 109 00:05:57,000 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 2: historically that when the Robert Shiller cyclically adjusted pe ratios 110 00:06:02,400 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 2: above twenty five, the average five year return, the subsequent 111 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 2: five year return for the S and P five hundred 112 00:06:09,080 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 2: is about three and a half percent a year. That's 113 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,159 Speaker 2: the average. Over the next five years. We're well above 114 00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 2: twenty five. We're between thirty and forty, depending on the day, 115 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 2: and that would suggest that over the next five to 116 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 2: ten years returns could actually be zero. And so the 117 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 2: US bear case is put forward by the fact that 118 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,400 Speaker 2: we know that when you pay a high price for 119 00:06:35,440 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 2: an asset, you're going to get a low return, and 120 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:42,080 Speaker 2: currently the prices are very, very high. The bears would 121 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 2: say that this is a classic speculative bubble and it's 122 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:50,240 Speaker 2: being propped up by what we call AI hopium. That 123 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:51,720 Speaker 2: don't you like that? 124 00:06:52,200 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 1: I love that. 125 00:06:53,080 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 2: We always come up with weird and wonderful words in finance. 126 00:06:56,880 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 1: So where do you sit on that spectrum? 127 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:03,480 Speaker 2: Yeah? My view is the AI dream has already been bought, 128 00:07:04,640 --> 00:07:10,000 Speaker 2: that's done. The actual productivity gains the payoff. Well, that 129 00:07:10,080 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 2: needs to be proven. But so we saw last week, 130 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 2: for example, Microsoft dropped ten percent in a single session, 131 00:07:19,080 --> 00:07:22,320 Speaker 2: which is dramatic. Now if you say, okay, well that's 132 00:07:22,760 --> 00:07:25,720 Speaker 2: a classic example of the unwinding of the AI boom. 133 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:28,280 Speaker 2: They're not going to be able to actually deploy four 134 00:07:28,360 --> 00:07:31,760 Speaker 2: hundred billion dollars quickly. There's going to be as we 135 00:07:31,800 --> 00:07:35,080 Speaker 2: talked about last year, delays to approvals of data centers. 136 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:38,160 Speaker 2: There's water restrictions, there's or cooling problems, all of that. 137 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 2: The reality is the cyclicality of reality, I call it. 138 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 2: Those things are going to hit. We saw Microsoft last 139 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:47,560 Speaker 2: week drop ten percent in a session. The rest of 140 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 2: the market was down about half a percent. So it 141 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 2: could be that even though the AI bubble pops, it 142 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:58,320 Speaker 2: doesn't bring the whole market down and instead we see 143 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 2: kind of a plodding along of the rest of the market, 144 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 2: somewhere between zero and twelve percent. But having said that, 145 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:10,080 Speaker 2: the US dollar is weakening thanks to Trump's policies, and 146 00:08:10,120 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 2: that's why gold is at record highs. That's part of 147 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 2: the reason why silver is catching up. Although there's a 148 00:08:15,680 --> 00:08:19,960 Speaker 2: supply issue with silver and that US dollar declining means 149 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 2: that even if you make twelve percent on US stocks, 150 00:08:23,840 --> 00:08:27,040 Speaker 2: if the US dollar falls by twelve percent this year, 151 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:32,120 Speaker 2: where you've made nothing, and so diversifying out of particularly 152 00:08:32,160 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 2: those large cap US companies where you've made profit, maybe 153 00:08:36,320 --> 00:08:39,360 Speaker 2: locking in some of those profits and diversifying this year 154 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:41,240 Speaker 2: makes a good deal of sense. 155 00:08:41,800 --> 00:08:45,199 Speaker 1: So I mean, just go further into what's happening in commodities. 156 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: Is gold and silver as much about usd slash safe 157 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:52,360 Speaker 1: haven status or is there more to it? And then 158 00:08:52,360 --> 00:08:54,960 Speaker 1: what about copper? For example, copper late last week hit 159 00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,960 Speaker 1: another record high. Some of the battery metals are doing 160 00:08:58,040 --> 00:09:00,680 Speaker 1: incredibly well. Also, how do we think about it that cycle? 161 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 2: So copper is a supply issue. So when you look 162 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 2: at all the data centers that are proposed to be built, 163 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 2: the amount of copper that's actually required is butting up 164 00:09:09,960 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 2: against a fairly fixed supply here. There hasn't been a 165 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:18,040 Speaker 2: new copper mine developed in years, and not of any 166 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:23,520 Speaker 2: significant value or volume. And so that's what's happening in copper. 167 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:27,520 Speaker 2: If we look at gold, well, really you know it's 168 00:09:27,559 --> 00:09:29,720 Speaker 2: being driven by central bank buying. I've got a list 169 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:32,720 Speaker 2: here shorn of the banks that are buying aggressively around 170 00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 2: the world, and there's a lot more emerging every day. 171 00:09:35,520 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 2: The top buyer is Poland, than China, than India, Turkey. 172 00:09:40,480 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 2: All of these countries central banks are aggressively buying gold. 173 00:09:44,679 --> 00:09:54,560 Speaker 2: Add to that, Brazil, the Czech Republic, Singapore of all places, Whuzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Zimbabwe, Ghana, Nigeria, 174 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:59,160 Speaker 2: the Philippines and Indonesia, all of their central banks are 175 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 2: buying more gold at the end of last year than 176 00:10:01,920 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 2: they were buying the year before, even though the prices 177 00:10:04,920 --> 00:10:09,400 Speaker 2: are high. And so it's that thematic it's that central 178 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:13,720 Speaker 2: bank shift away from the US dollar, or maybe because 179 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:18,120 Speaker 2: the US dollar is declining, that gold is going up 180 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 2: and people continue to buy it even at these lofty levels. 181 00:10:21,960 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 1: Okay, So let's bring it back to investors and how 182 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 1: they should think about their portfolios over the next twelve months. 183 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 1: We've heard the AI story and the US equity story 184 00:10:34,600 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 1: from you. We've heard what's happening in commodities from you. 185 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:41,920 Speaker 1: You've touched on the weakness in the US dollar. How 186 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:43,559 Speaker 1: do I think about that? If I'm a how igh 187 00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:45,760 Speaker 1: net wealth individual? What am I looking for? 188 00:10:46,440 --> 00:10:50,720 Speaker 2: Well, look, we joked before the start of this interview 189 00:10:50,880 --> 00:10:57,800 Speaker 2: that the RBA is about to announce any possible policy decision, 190 00:10:57,800 --> 00:11:01,199 Speaker 2: and I joked with you that, well, you know, anything 191 00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 2: could happen over in the US. We just don't know 192 00:11:04,200 --> 00:11:07,840 Speaker 2: what Donald Trump is going to do. That volatility will 193 00:11:07,840 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 2: continue throughout the year. This is a midterm year in 194 00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 2: the US presidential election cycle, rather and midterm years historically, 195 00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 2: going back one hundred odd years, midterm years are on 196 00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:25,199 Speaker 2: average the worst performing year in the election cycle, in 197 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:28,839 Speaker 2: the four year cycle, and even in a bullmarket. So 198 00:11:28,960 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 2: even in bullmarket years where the market ended higher than 199 00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:35,280 Speaker 2: where it began, and what I mean by that is 200 00:11:35,880 --> 00:11:40,720 Speaker 2: where the market ended high, in a midterm year, even 201 00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 2: those years between May and September the market went down. 202 00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:47,600 Speaker 2: So without exception, the sell in May and go away 203 00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:52,720 Speaker 2: idea seems to work in midterm years. So I would 204 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:57,599 Speaker 2: bet my hat that there's going to be some volatility 205 00:11:57,640 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 2: this year. I also believe that that central bank buying 206 00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:04,760 Speaker 2: of gold is not going to stop. They're not suddenly 207 00:12:04,800 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 2: going all those central banks are not going to say, hey, 208 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:08,600 Speaker 2: we've started this program, we're now going to end it. 209 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:12,839 Speaker 2: And consequently, I think that's because the US dollar, their 210 00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:15,319 Speaker 2: belief in the US dollar. Their support of the US 211 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 2: dollar is waning. That US dollar is going to come down. 212 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:22,600 Speaker 2: So if you combine the declining US dollar with more volatility, 213 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:27,079 Speaker 2: well it does make sense to diversify out of large 214 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,440 Speaker 2: cap US stocks where you've already made a profit. It's 215 00:12:29,480 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 2: done well over the last three years, and maybe you 216 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,560 Speaker 2: should be looking at other things. What are those other things, Well, 217 00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:39,800 Speaker 2: we've talked about these before. Because of that volatility, I 218 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:43,760 Speaker 2: think there are a lot of retirees or pre retiree 219 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:47,560 Speaker 2: investors who are looking to get returns that are similar 220 00:12:47,640 --> 00:12:51,760 Speaker 2: to the stock market circus seven, eight, nine, ten percent returns, 221 00:12:52,080 --> 00:12:56,160 Speaker 2: but without the volatility. Now with judiciously selected and I 222 00:12:56,200 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 2: say that with some emphasis, judicious lee selected private credit funds, 223 00:13:03,880 --> 00:13:08,040 Speaker 2: those without exposure to property development, for example, I think 224 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 2: you can get something like a stock market return without 225 00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 2: the volatility, and you can get you can generate monthly 226 00:13:14,559 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 2: income as well. So that's where I'd be looking. On 227 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:21,520 Speaker 2: our blog, we've talked about the various types and which 228 00:13:21,600 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 2: funds might make sense, so people can go to the 229 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 2: blog and find that out. But That's what I'd be 230 00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,480 Speaker 2: thinking of. And the other thing is long short funds. 231 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 2: You know arbitrage funds and long short funds. They start 232 00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:37,199 Speaker 2: to make sense because they tend to profit from volatility. 233 00:13:37,480 --> 00:13:40,240 Speaker 2: They tend to do better when volumes pick up, and 234 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,320 Speaker 2: volumes do pick up at turning points in markets, and 235 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:46,679 Speaker 2: volatility also picks up at those points. And so I 236 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 2: think I'm not saying sell stock Sean. I'm not saying 237 00:13:49,800 --> 00:13:51,280 Speaker 2: get out of the stock market. That would be a 238 00:13:51,280 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 2: really immature thing to do. But taking some profits and 239 00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:58,599 Speaker 2: diversifying away a little bit from the stock market, I 240 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 2: think this year is going to look like a wise decision. 241 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:03,199 Speaker 1: Roger, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 242 00:14:03,400 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 2: Always a pleasure, Sean. 243 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 1: As Roger Montgomery from Montgomery Investment Management a great supporter 244 00:14:07,760 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 1: of this podcast. To learn more or read up more 245 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 1: on what Roger was saying, visit mont invest m O 246 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:16,440 Speaker 1: n T I n V E s T mont invest 247 00:14:16,480 --> 00:14:19,040 Speaker 1: dot com and you can sign up for Rogers Insights 248 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:22,080 Speaker 1: that Roger Montgomery r O g E R M O 249 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 1: N T G O M E R Y Roger Montgomery 250 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: dot com. Fear and Greed is not a financial advice podcast. 251 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 1: If you want to invest, we always recommend you visit 252 00:14:30,280 --> 00:14:32,920 Speaker 1: a financial advisor who can tailor investments to your needs. 253 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 1: I'm Sean. This is fear and greed, Q and a