WEBVTT - Why Sarah Wilson says civilisation is collapsing

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Ruby Jones and you're listening to seven AM. The

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<v Speaker 1>world is facing a series of large scale crises ward

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<v Speaker 1>declining democracy, climate catastrophe. So is it all a sign

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<v Speaker 1>that our civilization is reaching its limits and that our

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<v Speaker 1>economic and political systems are nearing collapse? That's the question

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<v Speaker 1>Australian author Sarah Wilson has been interrogating for the last

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<v Speaker 1>three years. Today, writer Sarah Wilson on what happens when

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<v Speaker 1>the systems that hold us together begin to fray all

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<v Speaker 1>at once and what the future looks like after civilizational collapse.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Monday, June one. Sarah, your new book is all

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<v Speaker 1>about civilizational collapse, which you say we're in the midst

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<v Speaker 1>of right now. We'll get to that part in a moment,

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<v Speaker 1>but first, could you just tell us what you're talking

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<v Speaker 1>about when you talk about civilizational collapse.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a hard thing to enter into because when we

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<v Speaker 2>talk collapse, we're not necessarily talking the collapse of humanity,

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<v Speaker 2>although that is definitely a possibility according to most modeling

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<v Speaker 2>that's out there at the moment. What we're really talking

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<v Speaker 2>about is the collapse of the system.

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<v Speaker 3>And this is sort of a bit of a misnomer.

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<v Speaker 2>I think we think the collapse is going to be

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<v Speaker 2>like the movies, you know, people wandering around with a

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<v Speaker 2>shopping trolley, you know, through apocalyptic scenes. That is not

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<v Speaker 2>how it goes. It's a very gradual at first, and

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<v Speaker 2>then a sped up sort of undoing of all the

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<v Speaker 2>complexifying that has been happening for the last two hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and seventy years or so. We tend to explain things

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<v Speaker 2>in a very linear format, where we grab an issue

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<v Speaker 2>and work with it as a system in isolation. But

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<v Speaker 2>to understand actually what's happening to the world today, we

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<v Speaker 2>need to actually think in terms of complex systems theory,

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<v Speaker 2>which is about understanding that we are in a complex

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<v Speaker 2>system of complex systems.

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<v Speaker 3>That is essentially what our civilization is.

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<v Speaker 2>Every complex civilization throughout history has collapsed, and it has

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<v Speaker 2>collapsed because of its complexity. So if you think of

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<v Speaker 2>the Roman Empire, the Mayan Empire, the Jin dynasty, they've

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<v Speaker 2>all collapsed because they've just got too many armies, too

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<v Speaker 2>many cities. It's required too many taxes, too many farmers

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<v Speaker 2>that are required to pay the taxes. And then what

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<v Speaker 2>happens is some small volcano, small climate catastrophe, perhaps a

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<v Speaker 2>small army entering the system, it can't actually deal with

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<v Speaker 2>something like, for instance, a flood or a volcano eruption

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<v Speaker 2>or something like that. And that is essentially what brings

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<v Speaker 2>a civilization to its knees, and every complex civilization has

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<v Speaker 2>gone this way. We are a complex civilization, and we

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<v Speaker 2>are at a point where all the systems that make

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<v Speaker 2>up our civilization, the post industrial civilization, are under all

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<v Speaker 2>kinds of stress and they're interacting with each other. So

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<v Speaker 2>trade route system, the AI system, the nuclear threat system,

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<v Speaker 2>the food security system. They're all wobbling, they're all feeding

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<v Speaker 2>into each other. And the extra element tool of this

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<v Speaker 2>ruby is that, unlike the Roman Empire, our civilization is global,

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<v Speaker 2>and so what is happening in South America, what's happening in.

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<v Speaker 3>The UK is going to affect all of this.

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<v Speaker 1>Can we talk a little bit more about how that

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<v Speaker 1>might look, because you reference collapsology and collapsologists in your work,

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<v Speaker 1>So tell me a bit about I guess the field

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<v Speaker 1>here and what you can kind of glean about how

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<v Speaker 1>how this might.

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<v Speaker 3>Go well in some way.

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<v Speaker 2>Is the best way to put it is to say

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<v Speaker 2>collapse looks like what we're in and instead of kind

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<v Speaker 2>of getting better, which I think a lot of people

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<v Speaker 2>have this sense that we're going to return to some

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<v Speaker 2>sort of sense of normal, some sense of order once again.

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<v Speaker 2>That ain't going to happen, according to most of the

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<v Speaker 2>modeling done in think tanks and institutes around the world. Instead,

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to get a little bit worse and then

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit worse.

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<v Speaker 3>So this but worse.

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<v Speaker 2>When I say this, I'm talking about fragmentation, the collapse

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<v Speaker 2>of democratic institutions. Seven percent of the world, only seven

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<v Speaker 2>percent of the world today lives in a liberal democracy,

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<v Speaker 2>and that percentage is likely to decrease over coming years.

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<v Speaker 2>It's going to look like increased AI threat, a nuclear threat.

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<v Speaker 2>It's going to look like trade root disruptions. It's going

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<v Speaker 2>to look like energy disruptions and Internet disruptions. And you

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<v Speaker 2>mentioned the word collapsology, which is interesting because that's a

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<v Speaker 2>French word, a frenchified word. It's called collapsology or the

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<v Speaker 2>frondemont over in France and in Europe, which is where

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<v Speaker 2>I'm based. Now, this is a term that's actually discussed

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<v Speaker 2>on more than television programs. It's not an alien notion.

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<v Speaker 2>The EU issued an edict to all leaders last year

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<v Speaker 2>to inform four hundred and fifty million citizens of the

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<v Speaker 2>EU to prepare a survival kit in the event of

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<v Speaker 2>some collapsing existential risk, so nuclear war or otherwise. It

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<v Speaker 2>is actually quite I think a fresh new phenomenon here

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<v Speaker 2>in Australia. We have been I think cacooned from a

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<v Speaker 2>lot of what is happening around the world. Australia until

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<v Speaker 2>recently experienced more than three decades of uninterrupted economic growth

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<v Speaker 2>apart from a small blitz during COVID, and we don't

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<v Speaker 2>have the language for it, we don't have the leadership

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<v Speaker 2>to discuss these kinds of things.

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<v Speaker 3>And so do you think that's changing.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think that kind of sense of being protected

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<v Speaker 1>from needing to talk about an issue like this, do

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<v Speaker 1>you censor shift?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 1>I do.

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<v Speaker 2>I certainly sense it amongst everyday people. So I wrote

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<v Speaker 2>this book, my most recent book, Guy at the Stars,

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<v Speaker 2>as a serialization on Substack. It's an international writers platform.

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<v Speaker 2>I had a lot of Australian subscribers, and they get it.

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<v Speaker 2>I've come to Australia and I've done all kinds of

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<v Speaker 2>events and you know, been speaking with everyday Australians and

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<v Speaker 2>they understand these things, and they're feeling the same way

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<v Speaker 2>I have, and that is that there's not enough discussion

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<v Speaker 2>out there in the public. People are having these discussions

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<v Speaker 2>at barbecues and over the dinner table, but there's no leadership,

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<v Speaker 2>there's no sort of forum for this kind of thing.

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<v Speaker 3>And I've found this before.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, my books have tended to tackle subjects that

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<v Speaker 2>the Australian I guess landscape hasn't wanted to embrace. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>it was sugar, it was anxiety, it was the climate crisis.

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<v Speaker 2>But what I found always is everyday Australians are well

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<v Speaker 2>ahead of the curve compared with the rest of the

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<v Speaker 2>world that the leadership ain't.

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<v Speaker 3>There is quite behind.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up what comes after collapse? Sarah, I suppose part

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<v Speaker 1>of the reason for not having conversations about this is

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<v Speaker 1>just the difficulty of emotionally grappling with these ideas. So

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<v Speaker 1>can you tell me a bit about how you have

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<v Speaker 1>approached that.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, I think the neo liberal framework has

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<v Speaker 2>tended to make individuals feel responsible for what's going on.

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<v Speaker 2>So when we take that on, it's very hard to

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<v Speaker 2>face the enormity of everything, you know, the everything that's happening.

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<v Speaker 2>Overwhelm is a predominant response to all of this, and

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<v Speaker 2>it's completely understandable, not aided by the fact that the

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<v Speaker 2>bad faith actors in all of this, leaders who are

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<v Speaker 2>coming in and filling out this space of uncertainty and disruption,

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<v Speaker 2>they are bringing chaos to the situation. You know, Steve

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<v Speaker 2>Bannon in the US who advises the Trump administration, openly advises.

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<v Speaker 3>The Trump team to flood the zone with shit.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, the Romans used bread and circuses to distract

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<v Speaker 2>people from what was happening. The leadership that is actually

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<v Speaker 2>filling this vacuum this space at the moment is doing

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<v Speaker 2>the same thing, and so it's adding to the overwhelmed.

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<v Speaker 3>So our ability to cope with all of this is extremely,

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<v Speaker 3>extremely stretched.

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<v Speaker 1>So what is your advice for coping? You know?

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<v Speaker 2>A common question I get asked in all of this

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<v Speaker 2>Rube is well, should we be prepping? Should we be

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<v Speaker 2>you know, fleeing to the hills and homesteading. My answer

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<v Speaker 2>to that is absolutely not, because it doesn't work. It's

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<v Speaker 2>never worked. Less than five percent of these kinds of

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<v Speaker 2>so called intentional communities ever last longer than five years,

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<v Speaker 2>and that is because we as a species only ever

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<v Speaker 2>get through tough, dark, limital times like the one we've

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<v Speaker 2>find ourselves in now. As a collective, we actually need

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<v Speaker 2>to be in a community of at least one hundred

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<v Speaker 2>to one hundred and fifty people to survive difficult times.

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<v Speaker 2>So that's something that we need to bear in mind

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<v Speaker 2>at all times, and I think Australims are particularly well

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<v Speaker 2>equipped for that. So rather than getting overwhelmed, what we

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<v Speaker 2>need to be doing is accepting that it is bigger

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<v Speaker 2>than what we can cope with. It is happening, and

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<v Speaker 2>one of the best ways to actually hold humanity.

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<v Speaker 3>Through this is to actually be together.

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<v Speaker 2>The only framework that is going to be able to

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<v Speaker 2>work for what's coming at us is community, and countless

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<v Speaker 2>studies are showing that that is the only way forward.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So what do you think the world then looks

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<v Speaker 1>like after civilizational collapse?

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<v Speaker 3>What is salvaged? What is salvageable?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I don't think anyone knows, and uncertainty is the

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<v Speaker 2>main feature of what we're confronting. That is actually where

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<v Speaker 2>most people's fear lies is that we don't know. However,

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<v Speaker 2>having said that, there is considerable modeling being done in

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<v Speaker 2>various realms so population collapse is one space where we

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<v Speaker 2>get a bit of a picture of how things are

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<v Speaker 2>going to go. So according to multiple think tanks and

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<v Speaker 2>institutes have been tracking this for many years, we will

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<v Speaker 2>reach peak population of about nine to ten billion sometime

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<v Speaker 2>between twenty forty and twenty sixty. So the global replacement

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<v Speaker 2>figure at the moment, it's two point one babies per woman.

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<v Speaker 2>That's what's required to maintain the population it's about to debunder.

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<v Speaker 2>Three quarters of the world is well below that. Here

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<v Speaker 2>in Australia we're at one point six. In parts of

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<v Speaker 2>Asia it's zero point seven point eight, and we will decline.

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<v Speaker 2>But down the other side of that hockey stick graph,

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<v Speaker 2>that's a bell curve if you like, eventually reaching a

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<v Speaker 2>bottomed out population of about one to four billion within

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<v Speaker 2>a couple of hundred years.

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<v Speaker 3>That is quite stunning stuff.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, climate activists out there might be thinking, well, this

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<v Speaker 2>is great news, because less people, less resources what to fix?

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<v Speaker 2>How beautiful the impactable of that will come too late

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<v Speaker 2>to be able to sort of assist.

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<v Speaker 3>It's in that climate catastrophe situation.

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<v Speaker 2>But the opportunity we have before us right now is

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<v Speaker 2>to determine whether we tether ourselves to a system that

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<v Speaker 2>is collapsing. It's collapsing without there being any kind of outpath,

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<v Speaker 2>if you know what I mean. And so we can

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<v Speaker 2>start to imagine where we're going to head next. And

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<v Speaker 2>that's sort of why I wrote this book, because experts

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<v Speaker 2>around the world are sort of trying to issue this

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<v Speaker 2>Clarine call, you know, please wake up. This is when

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<v Speaker 2>we need to actually be making significant changes to the

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<v Speaker 2>way we interact with the world. It's potentially a blique picture,

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<v Speaker 2>but potentially an era of stunning possible. Humans have gone

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<v Speaker 2>through this before, Ruby, multiple times, and out of dark times,

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<v Speaker 2>out of dark limital times like the one we find

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<v Speaker 2>ourselves in great poetry, great art movements, great philosophy has emerged,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, between the two World wars, existentialism emerged, socialism

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<v Speaker 2>and communism emerged.

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<v Speaker 3>As ideas that, you know.

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<v Speaker 2>We're expressions of human flourishing and this I believe as

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<v Speaker 2>an era we're about to enter.

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<v Speaker 1>Sarah, thank you so much for talking with me.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you. Ruby.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news, eleven Australians detained by Israeli forces

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<v Speaker 1>while attempting to deliver aid to Gaza have submitted evidence

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<v Speaker 1>to the International Criminal Court alleging abuse, torture and other

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<v Speaker 1>violations during their detention. The Global Smood Flotilla called for

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<v Speaker 1>independent international investigations, arms inbargoes, and reparations for alleged victims,

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<v Speaker 1>and Buckingham Palace has once again been dragged into the

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<v Speaker 1>scandal surrounding Andrew Mountbatten Windsor. The BBC's reporting that emails

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<v Speaker 1>handed to the Palace six years ago appear to show

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<v Speaker 1>that Andrew was sharing confidential government information while he was

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<v Speaker 1>a trade envoy. The emails were given to the most

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<v Speaker 1>senior officer of the Royal household in twenty twenty. Buckingham

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<v Speaker 1>Palace says it can't provide comment because of the ongoing

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<v Speaker 1>police investigation. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am. Thanks

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<v Speaker 1>for listening.