WEBVTT - A billion reasons to reconsider crypto 0:00:09.920 --> 0:00:12.879 Hello, and welcome to The Australian's Money Positive podcast. I'm 0:00:12.920 --> 0:00:16.680 James Kirkby. Welcome afore everybody. My guest today is Jackie Clark. 0:00:17.000 --> 0:00:20.480 She's a Charge of Accountant, a Family Office board member 0:00:20.560 --> 0:00:26.000 and author of a very successful book, Stop Worrying About Money, 0:00:26.000 --> 0:00:28.680 which she has reminded me to remind you, has now 0:00:28.720 --> 0:00:31.600 won several awards since she was on the show the 0:00:31.720 --> 0:00:36.360 last time. But she's also particularly good on investment markets 0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:41.120 and I've wanted to talk to her particularly, and I've 0:00:41.120 --> 0:00:45.040 wanted to talk to you particularly about crypto. Now. I 0:00:45.159 --> 0:00:49.400 know we've had people on about crypto regularly and bitcoin, 0:00:49.760 --> 0:00:53.040 and to some extent it's been what we say. Some 0:00:53.159 --> 0:00:55.560 listeners have thought I've been a bit dismissive of crypto. 0:00:56.040 --> 0:00:59.440 I haven't. I've been terribly skeptical about crypto to a 0:00:59.560 --> 0:01:02.880 point I have to say not anymore. By that, I 0:01:03.000 --> 0:01:06.319 mean there are things happening, particularly at the top end 0:01:06.400 --> 0:01:09.880 of the market, particularly the world that Jackie Clark operates in, 0:01:10.360 --> 0:01:15.800 that I think will really make you reconsider the whole 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:18.080 area if you haven't already about deeply. 0:01:18.640 --> 0:01:21.720 How are you, Jackie, I'm great James on this brisk 0:01:21.800 --> 0:01:23.680 morning brisk. 0:01:23.440 --> 0:01:26.039 Morning, indeed brisk morning and Melbourne as well, I can 0:01:26.040 --> 0:01:28.959 tell you that. But you know, I've been thinking something 0:01:29.000 --> 0:01:30.520 cut my arm. I mean a few months ago. I 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:34.320 think the outstanding thing that I noticed was amp unlikely 0:01:34.400 --> 0:01:40.360 perhaps of all the big institutional managers, was, as I understand, 0:01:40.400 --> 0:01:44.840 the first fund manager to formerly buy a crypto. They 0:01:44.840 --> 0:01:49.480 bought bitcoin. And then I saw a fascinating piece a 0:01:49.560 --> 0:01:55.919 couple of days ago where Amazon and Walmart are talking 0:01:55.920 --> 0:01:59.480 about issuing their own crypto coins stable coins, that is 0:01:59.520 --> 0:02:03.960 the come convertibook two dollars. And then this morning, just 0:02:04.040 --> 0:02:08.240 so happens, this morning, JP Morgan is launching They're all 0:02:08.600 --> 0:02:12.000 crypto coin, and I think something really is starting to 0:02:12.080 --> 0:02:18.040 happen inside financial markets. What tell us your review as 0:02:18.080 --> 0:02:20.680 a conservative investor, I expect tell us your view. 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:25.400 Bitcoin. I don't invest in it, I don't have clients 0:02:25.400 --> 0:02:28.400 who invest in it. I have friends, though, who chat 0:02:28.440 --> 0:02:31.680 about it, and some who play with it. I guess 0:02:31.680 --> 0:02:34.680 the big question with bitcoin is it's some type of 0:02:35.000 --> 0:02:39.519 economic bubble? Is it? And people often talk about it 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:44.640 as the online goal, but perhaps the bit that's the 0:02:44.680 --> 0:02:46.440 difficulty I find with it. And you know, one of 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:49.080 the things I talk a lot about when we discuss 0:02:49.200 --> 0:02:52.640 things like financial literacy. My caution to people always is 0:02:52.680 --> 0:02:56.080 doing your due diligence on the investments. So don't invest 0:02:56.120 --> 0:02:59.640 in something you don't understand. And it is very difficult 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:04.080 to get to the bottom of what the bitcoin actually represents. 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:10.600 And so sure conscious that AMP and others, including super 0:03:10.600 --> 0:03:14.360 funds in Australia have started to contemplate bitcoin or actually 0:03:14.440 --> 0:03:18.560 add bitcoin to their portfolios. And is that perhaps just 0:03:18.600 --> 0:03:22.160 a why is it a way of diversifying risk? I 0:03:22.160 --> 0:03:24.440 don't know the answer to that, but perhaps the bigger 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:28.040 question is what does it really represent? And there is 0:03:28.040 --> 0:03:32.799 some contemplation that it's considered a treasury asset, but it's 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:37.720 not cash and if the bitcoin price drops, your cash 0:03:37.760 --> 0:03:40.040 has gone. Now that's not a treasury asset as far 0:03:40.080 --> 0:03:43.720 as myself is a chartered accountant would consider. So it 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:47.680 represents lots of conflicts in it. Yes there is, yeah, 0:03:47.720 --> 0:03:51.280 I know, including with the energy usage and everything else. 0:03:51.520 --> 0:03:56.400 Sure super funds I read now have there's a billion 0:03:56.440 --> 0:03:59.840 dollars Australia inside look self managed super funds. It our 0:03:59.880 --> 0:04:04.360 so many people are taking I think they're just taking 0:04:04.360 --> 0:04:07.800 a bet that the fear of missing out. That's my 0:04:07.880 --> 0:04:10.120 gut feeling. But just looking at it a little bit 0:04:10.160 --> 0:04:14.080 deeper as to why it may become more important because 0:04:14.120 --> 0:04:16.880 it's becoming embedded in the financial system and the way 0:04:16.920 --> 0:04:19.320 perhaps we might ever have imagined. I mean, first of all, 0:04:19.320 --> 0:04:21.839 you have Trump talking about going into the strategic Reserve 0:04:21.880 --> 0:04:26.880 in the US, which is extraordinary. He's totally pro crypto. 0:04:27.120 --> 0:04:31.400 But more than that, when you see the majors and 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:36.320 when you see JP Morgan entering the market, it tells 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:39.799 you there's more going on than simple bitcoin betting. 0:04:41.960 --> 0:04:45.600 Yes, perhaps it has stood the test of time. You 0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:49.920 could argue perhaps since its introduction, it has generally increased. 0:04:50.040 --> 0:04:54.080 Since its introduction, there is a limit apparent limit to 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:57.680 the supply when the system was established, which I kind 0:04:58.000 --> 0:05:03.599 I've find fascinating as well, because with the bermin Ai, 0:05:04.640 --> 0:05:10.400 I would expect that bitcoin per se would actually grow. 0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:14.320 So with this limited market, I think it's one hundred 0:05:14.360 --> 0:05:16.320 and twenty one million, so to speak, and I think 0:05:16.320 --> 0:05:19.080 we're only at not even at twenty percent penetration yet, 0:05:19.120 --> 0:05:21.359 is that right? We're under twenty million, I think, So 0:05:21.360 --> 0:05:23.320 we've got a long way to go in this market 0:05:23.360 --> 0:05:27.479 of picking up this coin for one of a better word. 0:05:27.680 --> 0:05:29.840 So I guess there's potentially it, but it does feel 0:05:29.880 --> 0:05:32.000 like it does feel like a bet. And if you 0:05:32.040 --> 0:05:35.520 were looking at a portfolio spread, this would be The 0:05:35.520 --> 0:05:37.720 people I work with won't go near it. 0:05:37.800 --> 0:05:38.919 They will go neared state. 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:43.200 It isn't a case correct. Yes, So the advisors, certainly 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:47.680 in say Sydney Melbourne markets who look after wealth, are 0:05:47.720 --> 0:05:51.080 not going near bitcoin. They may on request if you 0:05:51.160 --> 0:05:53.200 say that's what I want to hold because I think 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:56.360 there's something in it. It's very speculative in the context 0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:59.440 of traditional investment. You know, it's not not bricks and water. 0:06:00.000 --> 0:06:02.480 There exceptions in the family officer, high networth. 0:06:03.000 --> 0:06:05.560 No, only in terms of attitude, which is what it 0:06:05.600 --> 0:06:07.760 comes down to you, doesn't it. So if you're a 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:11.120 betting person, if you're if you've got horses, for example, 0:06:11.400 --> 0:06:14.440 bitcoin might be just adjacent to the racetrack. 0:06:15.680 --> 0:06:18.560 That is. That's the skeptical view. Really, yeah, but I'm 0:06:18.600 --> 0:06:20.400 just looking at a little bit, just taking it a 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:24.719 little bit more central and economic and saying, well if Amazon, 0:06:26.720 --> 0:06:30.479 Walmart and JP Morgan in the last couple of weeks 0:06:30.520 --> 0:06:36.800 have announced their plans to issue their version of stable coins, 0:06:36.839 --> 0:06:39.960 which are convertible to dollars, right, So it hasn't got 0:06:40.000 --> 0:06:43.640 that wildness to it, right, So it's pegged. And then 0:06:44.040 --> 0:06:49.280 if they can find economies of scale or productivity gains 0:06:49.320 --> 0:06:52.839 from that, then it is a different story, isn't it 0:06:52.880 --> 0:06:55.640 to some expect And maybe bitcoin is just a proxy 0:06:55.680 --> 0:06:58.120 for all this activity. But even if it is, then 0:06:58.160 --> 0:07:00.480 it's then it becomes a different piece. Truly. 0:07:01.480 --> 0:07:03.880 Yeah, it's still going to be very difficult. And I 0:07:03.960 --> 0:07:06.679 made I guess I made that almost joke about horses 0:07:06.720 --> 0:07:08.919 and horse racing. But at least with the horse racing, 0:07:08.920 --> 0:07:12.280 you've got a horse. I'm still unclear with bitcoin what 0:07:12.320 --> 0:07:15.240 you've really got and what does that mean to you 0:07:15.280 --> 0:07:18.760 in terms of value compared to me. But again, whilst 0:07:19.000 --> 0:07:23.000 the predictions are that it will rise, the question remains 0:07:23.680 --> 0:07:27.920 what kind of treasury or monetary asset is it? And 0:07:27.960 --> 0:07:31.440 the worst thing about it for US individuals, us mere 0:07:31.960 --> 0:07:36.120 individual investors is if we lose the data, if we 0:07:36.200 --> 0:07:39.760 lose the bitcoin, it's gone. It's not like we have 0:07:39.840 --> 0:07:41.880 a deposit in the bank and there's a balance that 0:07:41.920 --> 0:07:44.920 says you've got one hundred dollars, it's gone. You've basically 0:07:44.960 --> 0:07:47.480 lost it. So if you lose if you store your 0:07:47.560 --> 0:07:50.440 data off site somewhere your bitcoin and you lose the 0:07:50.480 --> 0:07:54.840 password or you lose the device. Yep, if you lose that, 0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:59.480 it's gone done. So there's some perhaps risks like that 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:02.400 with it that people may not be considering. And someone 0:08:02.400 --> 0:08:05.520 like Buffett is obviously famously said he's never going near bitcoin, 0:08:05.600 --> 0:08:08.440 and he continues to support that view and look at 0:08:09.040 --> 0:08:11.480 you can't. Not everyone agrees with him, but that's a 0:08:11.480 --> 0:08:13.920 particular point. And I think in the context of someone 0:08:14.000 --> 0:08:16.960 like Trump, the federal reserves in a pretty tough spot. 0:08:18.040 --> 0:08:20.559 I think we all know, and perhaps like most things 0:08:20.560 --> 0:08:22.440 with Trump, it's a bit of distraction. 0:08:23.280 --> 0:08:25.800 Right you think it's a decoy from the broader issue 0:08:25.840 --> 0:08:30.760 of US deaths, US dollars. We won't go there because 0:08:30.800 --> 0:08:32.880 I want to take a short break. And what I 0:08:32.920 --> 0:08:36.480 wanted to come back to is that the access to 0:08:36.559 --> 0:08:39.640 bitcoin and crypto is changing so rapidly, and we can 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:42.120 go in now through ETFs and to some extent that's 0:08:42.160 --> 0:08:45.800 commoditized collateralized. We don't have to worry really if someone 0:08:46.040 --> 0:08:49.440 loses the key to their particular crypto holding. That's one thing. 0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:53.000 And also when we just look at at the opportunities 0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:56.160 across the board. We're seeing more and more people coming 0:08:56.200 --> 0:08:59.160 in from all angles on this and we just want 0:08:59.160 --> 0:09:01.520 to pick up on what is it? Is it gold, 0:09:01.720 --> 0:09:05.880 is it correlated? Is it just another ascid that generally rises, 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:10.040 or is it non correlated? Which was the original proposal. 0:09:10.120 --> 0:09:12.080 If you like that, you could take bitcoin and it 0:09:12.080 --> 0:09:16.720 would serve you when traditional assets go awry. But I 0:09:16.840 --> 0:09:28.720 wonder about that. Let's talk about that in the moment. Hello, 0:09:28.840 --> 0:09:32.079 welcome back to The Australian's Money Puzzle podcast. James Kirby 0:09:32.120 --> 0:09:35.360 here talking to Jackie Clark. Now, Jackie, let's just look 0:09:35.400 --> 0:09:37.440 at the other part of this that. First of all, 0:09:37.640 --> 0:09:40.320 you were talking about advisors don't like it, but advisors 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:44.480 love ETFs, and money has been pouring into crypto ETFs 0:09:44.520 --> 0:09:47.920 and all the major ETF houses have crypto and this 0:09:48.000 --> 0:09:51.480 gives everyone a sort of an easy way in. So 0:09:51.600 --> 0:09:54.160 the advisor will say, look, I don't know anything about 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:56.520 bitcoin or those exchanges, but there is an ETF you 0:09:56.559 --> 0:09:59.680 can use. And of course, in saying so, the ETF 0:09:59.720 --> 0:10:02.120 takes all the boxes from a regulatory point of view. 0:10:02.160 --> 0:10:05.319 So the advisors okay with that. The client says, well, 0:10:05.360 --> 0:10:08.240 that's an easy way in, just like ETFs or an 0:10:08.280 --> 0:10:14.720 easy way into everything. It's a commoditized liquid, conventional asset, 0:10:14.840 --> 0:10:18.959 which is actually packaging and nonconventional asset. But it has changed, 0:10:19.040 --> 0:10:22.320 hasn't it. It's taken the bitcoin and crypto play from 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:26.920 the margins into the very center, which brings us back 0:10:26.960 --> 0:10:28.360 to what we said at the start of the show. 0:10:28.880 --> 0:10:32.160 A billion dollar in SMSs, a billion dollars in crypto 0:10:32.200 --> 0:10:37.680 in SMSFS now and key funds like AMP a sort 0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:43.439 of an icon for all its feelings of major institutional 0:10:43.480 --> 0:10:46.080 money in Australia. So does that change things? 0:10:47.120 --> 0:10:49.839 Well, it doesn't change it for me. But perhaps if 0:10:49.840 --> 0:10:54.120 there was an asset class that you didn't represent, and 0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:57.320 perhaps that's the question that these organizations have asked themselves, 0:10:57.360 --> 0:11:00.199 which is this an asset class that we should hold? 0:11:00.679 --> 0:11:02.560 And there's no doubt a lot of demand for it, 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:05.480 and in terms of perhaps the nature of assets going forward, 0:11:05.480 --> 0:11:08.120 this could be representative of more of the types of 0:11:08.160 --> 0:11:11.080 assets we might have access to in the future. 0:11:11.480 --> 0:11:14.000 What are you thinking there? What are you think of that? 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:18.000 Just the context for me is really about information and 0:11:18.040 --> 0:11:21.080 how powerful access to information or data is, and it 0:11:21.120 --> 0:11:24.439 always has been getting access to data information, so perhaps 0:11:24.440 --> 0:11:27.959 there's something more in the marketability of that down the track. 0:11:28.400 --> 0:11:31.640 And so this is also something that's a little bit mysterious, 0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:35.120 is it not. And given it's had such a good 0:11:35.160 --> 0:11:39.080 track record, I think that it will demonstrate appeal to 0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:44.360 people because of the quick gain. I guess, you know, 0:11:44.400 --> 0:11:46.679 I'm saying, I guess because it's difficult for me to 0:11:46.720 --> 0:11:50.600 get on board with it because I'm having trouble. Maybe 0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:53.640 I'm materialistic and I'd like to see something from my 0:11:53.760 --> 0:11:58.920 money other than again exactly. So yeah, still is it's 0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:01.400 not regulated, right, so it still is pretty rough. 0:12:01.600 --> 0:12:05.360 It's increasingly regulated, though, particularly in the world's most important 0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:08.240 money market, which is the US. And there's two things 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:11.240 I'm thinking of. One is that it seemed to me 0:12:11.360 --> 0:12:13.480 for a long time there was two types and I'm 0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:16.199 going to generalize here dangerously. I'm sure that there was 0:12:16.240 --> 0:12:19.360 two types of investor that were very interested in crypto 0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:26.080 and bitcoin. There were people who actually didn't engage in 0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:30.400 conventional markets anyway, and they saw this as a new thing, 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:32.920 basically a new thing that they could get an edge 0:12:32.920 --> 0:12:36.080 in this, and they didn't actually have shares properly, but 0:12:36.120 --> 0:12:39.320 they had bitcoin, and there was often this market were 0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:42.600 much younger. They were online Sammy et cetera, et cetera. 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:47.080 But then there was another market which were very sophisticated investors, 0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:51.240 the very top of the tree, and they wanted to 0:12:51.280 --> 0:12:54.600 know everything about it. And they see it, they see 0:12:54.840 --> 0:12:58.040 looting to use single names. But there are prominent investors 0:12:58.040 --> 0:13:00.440 in our own market. There's very many problems to best 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:03.280 result this indus. Mark Carnegie obviously been standing I suppose 0:13:03.320 --> 0:13:06.320 an earlier and people will say, well, look, Mark Carnegie 0:13:06.320 --> 0:13:09.959 has got right so many times, he must know something 0:13:10.000 --> 0:13:12.720 I don't know. So so I think this, first of all, 0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:16.640 there's that dichotomy between who who is prepared to back 0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:19.040 it and get involved and learn it. But what I 0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:22.840 want to ask you is whether this idea of the 0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:26.719 general idea that it's an alternative and so that it's 0:13:26.720 --> 0:13:28.720 so you mentioned that the very stars the idea of 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:31.640 digital gold. How do you view that proposal. 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:34.679 Yeah, I mean I think there's it's got some lenks 0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:38.760 to it in the context of it being this online asset. Yeah, 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:43.080 and look, maybe if you're proactive with it, I mean, 0:13:43.080 --> 0:13:47.920 it's recognized as a currency that you can trade for things. 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:51.240 And perhaps if you were able to do that, and 0:13:51.320 --> 0:13:54.080 that could be used in your own business model somehow 0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:58.680 that might also have some additional value to you. But 0:13:58.760 --> 0:14:01.360 again I think it requires then to understand that market 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:04.640 really well and recognize where you can trade the bigcoin 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:07.520 and what for? And does that is that all value 0:14:07.520 --> 0:14:10.480 to you? Because quite? I mean if you can have 0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:13.120 a product or an asset that growsing value quickly and 0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:16.120 you can offload it quickly for something else, then I 0:14:16.160 --> 0:14:20.080 see some benefit in that, which perhaps is where someone 0:14:20.160 --> 0:14:21.760 like Mark can tubby. 0:14:21.800 --> 0:14:24.120 Do you see it as a correlated asset? And folks, 0:14:24.120 --> 0:14:26.040 I'm sure just to make that clear, what we're saying 0:14:26.120 --> 0:14:30.120 is the jury is still out. It seems above bitcoin. 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:32.760 I mean, it's established now, it's an acid class. I 0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:34.840 don't think it's going to go. I think we assume 0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:36.920 that it's got for our lifetime. It's going to be here. 0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:39.920 It's been severely tested in many ways. It survived all 0:14:40.000 --> 0:14:42.040 those tests. So let's take that on put that on 0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:45.480 the table. But then the issue is whether it's digital goal. 0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:49.360 And if it is, that would mean that basically, if 0:14:49.440 --> 0:14:53.840 markets crumbled, if currencies in the US dollar classic case, 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:58.040 that the US dollar in ten years time is a 0:14:58.120 --> 0:15:00.840 sad reflection of what it is was ten years ago 0:15:00.880 --> 0:15:05.880 to say or and in that context, then the proposal 0:15:06.000 --> 0:15:08.600 is that bitcom will stand alone, basically that it will 0:15:08.640 --> 0:15:13.040 be like gold, it will be they will win. That's one. 0:15:13.600 --> 0:15:16.760 That's the non correlated asset argument. And then the outariasive 0:15:16.880 --> 0:15:19.880 argument is it's just becoming. It's just another asset. And 0:15:19.960 --> 0:15:22.280 if the markets are good, it's good. The markets are bad, 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:26.280 it's bad. We haven't got a sufficient track record have 0:15:26.440 --> 0:15:30.840 we really to test that? So it's simply live debate. 0:15:30.920 --> 0:15:32.560 Where are you on that one, Jackie? 0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:36.560 I guess only a bit what's been fifteen years, It's 0:15:36.600 --> 0:15:38.600 been around four now, so there's not a lot of 0:15:38.680 --> 0:15:42.640 evidence that it's very short periods. 0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:46.200 But it's part sufficient volume and interest to we even 0:15:47.040 --> 0:15:49.960 stand as some sort of proxy with gold. 0:15:50.360 --> 0:15:53.720 Yeah, and look, I find it fascinating with the market 0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:57.320 to how some things don't always hold value like they should, 0:15:57.440 --> 0:15:59.680 even when they've got brilliant balance sheets. It's just that 0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:02.760 can humor sentiment where people are at and it might 0:16:02.800 --> 0:16:04.960 be the same with bitcoin. But there's still I guess 0:16:04.960 --> 0:16:09.080 a lot of growth potential in bitcoin. And if in 0:16:09.320 --> 0:16:13.680 fifteen years we're at under twenty percent takeup of what's 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:16.640 available there. It's got a long way to go from 0:16:16.680 --> 0:16:20.400 growth potential in terms of accessibility, and so perhaps it 0:16:20.440 --> 0:16:23.440 will become more normal and I think, as you say, 0:16:23.520 --> 0:16:26.720 with the likes of amp, Walmart and Superinneation, fun State 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:29.440 starting to pick it up or recognize it as an asset, 0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:32.960 that maybe helps normalize the mystery a little bit. 0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:33.960 But I'm not. 0:16:34.160 --> 0:16:38.000 Any clearer that the mystery has shifted, and so does 0:16:38.040 --> 0:16:40.640 it move with the markets. I don't know. There's a 0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:43.200 whole lot of evidence that it has at the moment. 0:16:45.080 --> 0:16:47.280 There's a lot of you're seeing there's lack of evidence 0:16:47.280 --> 0:16:51.960 that it's correlated. Correct, So you're suggesting this non correlated 0:16:52.760 --> 0:16:54.360 well implication. 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:57.760 It's yes, that's how I would see it. 0:16:56.920 --> 0:17:02.240 Okay, that's interesting, right, Okay, So since we're talking about 0:17:02.240 --> 0:17:05.800 that and the markets, it seems to me obviously here 0:17:05.840 --> 0:17:07.919 we are at the end of just to switch gears 0:17:07.960 --> 0:17:10.080 for a moment and bring us back into a conventional, 0:17:10.080 --> 0:17:17.879 traditional space where we are more sure. Yes, well, value, 0:17:17.880 --> 0:17:19.800 that's what you're looking for, isn't this. You don't like 0:17:19.880 --> 0:17:22.480 the fact that there's no intrinsic value there isn't it 0:17:22.720 --> 0:17:23.840 really for me? 0:17:23.960 --> 0:17:28.159 That's right? Yeah, absolutely, yeah. It's very hard to be 0:17:28.280 --> 0:17:30.320 a nausey and say any other way. 0:17:30.440 --> 0:17:34.159 Actually, well gold, I mean, what's the intrinsic value of gold? 0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:38.119 Yeah, well, I mean that's a genuine mineral, isn't it gold? 0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:41.120 Okay, but it gets it gets a down high price 0:17:41.160 --> 0:17:42.480 for a genuine mineral. 0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:45.359 Doesn't Yes, yeah it does. It's done really well. But 0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:47.040 I probably won't be going there either. 0:17:48.920 --> 0:17:51.399 Okay, very good. So just on the market. It's what 0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:53.800 I have you because you have a finger of so 0:17:53.800 --> 0:17:57.720 many pies, fingers, so many pies. I'd like to just 0:17:58.040 --> 0:18:01.200 see where you're coming from in that. Our market here 0:18:01.240 --> 0:18:03.400 we are right coming to the end of the financial year, 0:18:03.840 --> 0:18:06.960 shares a up eleven percent, the average balanced super funders 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:10.720 out thereat point five percent. How on earth this wasn't 0:18:10.760 --> 0:18:13.480 supposed to happen with the market? Is our market is 0:18:13.560 --> 0:18:18.399 now a point where the most positive forecast at the 0:18:18.400 --> 0:18:21.520 start of the year said it might reach by December. 0:18:22.119 --> 0:18:24.200 What's your view on the share markets? 0:18:25.119 --> 0:18:27.680 Yeah, it's a good time. It's a really good time 0:18:27.680 --> 0:18:32.000 to have this conversation. It's there's a broadly positive view 0:18:32.440 --> 0:18:35.480 of the market now we are in an unusual spot. 0:18:35.600 --> 0:18:39.080 The tariffs aren't settled and our bow needs to get 0:18:39.080 --> 0:18:39.760 his meeting. 0:18:39.880 --> 0:18:40.840 At some point. 0:18:41.320 --> 0:18:43.640 But perhaps we're a little fish in a big. 0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:45.320 Sea enough priority. 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:50.399 Yes, so there's definitely some positives that we have and 0:18:50.440 --> 0:18:53.200 perhaps the Reserve Bank has certainly now got some genuine 0:18:53.240 --> 0:18:56.560 sort of firepower. The RBA is in a good spot, 0:18:56.920 --> 0:19:00.000 and I think with the disruption, if you like, between 0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:04.080 the US and China, Australia generally will benefit from that 0:19:04.200 --> 0:19:07.400 tariff war, if you like, because people will start will 0:19:07.400 --> 0:19:08.640 be the beneficiary of that. 0:19:09.200 --> 0:19:12.480 Tell us a bit bit more as to how. 0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:14.159 Just in terms of the way trade will work, we 0:19:14.280 --> 0:19:17.320 will be saying as probably easy pickings as a partner 0:19:17.640 --> 0:19:20.399 in that respect. Yeah, and perhaps, like I say, it's 0:19:20.440 --> 0:19:22.560 a bit of a distraction, we're a bit easier to 0:19:22.560 --> 0:19:26.199 deal with in the context of those tariffs, so we 0:19:26.320 --> 0:19:28.920 simply should benefit and that would come down to what 0:19:29.240 --> 0:19:31.639 items we're trading with each party. But I think we 0:19:31.760 --> 0:19:34.400 benefit from that, right, Yeah. 0:19:34.760 --> 0:19:36.680 Do you think that to some extent that depends the 0:19:36.920 --> 0:19:38.440 buoyancy in the ESX. 0:19:38.760 --> 0:19:42.320 I think that's definitely out there. But perhaps the other 0:19:42.359 --> 0:19:47.160 option is that if money leaves the US, it might come, 0:19:47.240 --> 0:19:50.520 it might find its way here. Now there's two reasons 0:19:50.520 --> 0:19:54.359 why you invest in Australia. We have a fairly narrow band, 0:19:54.440 --> 0:19:58.320 which is really banking and resources. But that's a good 0:19:58.359 --> 0:20:02.040 reason perhaps to have your money leaves, for example, the 0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:04.639 US and come to Australia. So that could be an 0:20:04.720 --> 0:20:05.720 upside benefit of. 0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:09.280 With the US institutions are buying come bank at a 0:20:09.280 --> 0:20:10.320 one hundred eighty. 0:20:10.240 --> 0:20:15.480 Dollars would be one of the reasons. Yeah, So that's 0:20:15.520 --> 0:20:17.600 something that I think would be appealing for people to 0:20:17.640 --> 0:20:21.440 come to Australia. But typically when I think about sort 0:20:21.440 --> 0:20:24.520 of revenue sources, most Aussie companies have a lot of 0:20:24.560 --> 0:20:30.000 domestic revenue as well less overseas revenue. So perhaps we're isolated. 0:20:30.560 --> 0:20:32.280 So we have it's so like the pros and the 0:20:32.320 --> 0:20:34.080 cons of being isolated this. 0:20:34.240 --> 0:20:37.000 Time or this sort of til it's. 0:20:36.840 --> 0:20:39.160 Almost independence in its own way. 0:20:39.480 --> 0:20:41.240 The banks are domestic, aren't there. 0:20:41.280 --> 0:20:41.640 They are. 0:20:43.520 --> 0:20:44.360 Domestic focus. 0:20:44.520 --> 0:20:47.080 Yeah, So if you were looking that's right and narrow 0:20:47.160 --> 0:20:51.160 your investment focused or isolate impact of particular things such 0:20:51.200 --> 0:20:54.320 as US China tariff arrangements, then that's something you can 0:20:54.359 --> 0:20:57.080 do through an Australian asset so, so there could be 0:20:57.119 --> 0:20:59.520 some upside from that for Australia. But we're in a 0:20:59.560 --> 0:21:02.520 pretty good spot right now with the RBA, and I 0:21:02.720 --> 0:21:08.760 believe that the China and the US wherever that conversation goes, 0:21:08.800 --> 0:21:11.800 I'm sure it's going somewhere that neither you know, China 0:21:11.800 --> 0:21:14.200 won't be happy with. Then they'll respond accordingly, but might 0:21:14.280 --> 0:21:17.840 have a slightly deflationary impact as well, which again is 0:21:17.880 --> 0:21:22.000 good for US. So I think that strengthens the RBA's 0:21:22.040 --> 0:21:25.120 position as well. So yeah, so, I mean it's all 0:21:25.280 --> 0:21:28.119 it seems generally good, and that's in the absence of 0:21:28.200 --> 0:21:31.200 anything more serious happening on the world front. 0:21:31.359 --> 0:21:34.040 I know it's a tough question, but it doesn't five 0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:38.200 founded or so markets up eleven percent over twelve months, 0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:41.800 it's up four percent for the year, and we get 0:21:41.840 --> 0:21:43.719 four and a half. It's up four and a half 0:21:45.000 --> 0:21:46.800 for six months. I should say, you know for the year. 0:21:47.080 --> 0:21:50.000 The calendar of today's checking your four percent evidence, les's 0:21:50.000 --> 0:21:53.320 three eight percent already. If you stopped right now, selling 0:21:53.400 --> 0:21:56.040 mayn't go away. I know it's tuning, but do you 0:21:56.080 --> 0:21:58.639 think this is as good as it gets? Is the 0:21:58.920 --> 0:22:00.320 room for for are? 0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:04.520 You know there's no crystal ball that can respond right now. 0:22:04.520 --> 0:22:10.639 There's too many sort of geopolitical matters occurring that could 0:22:10.640 --> 0:22:13.280 have any number of impacts. So it's just very hard 0:22:13.440 --> 0:22:15.280 I think for anybody like it always is. 0:22:15.320 --> 0:22:18.920 Really it sounds like you're not you're certainly not saying 0:22:18.920 --> 0:22:21.919 this market is this market's want too fast or anything 0:22:21.960 --> 0:22:22.239 like that. 0:22:22.359 --> 0:22:26.199 No, No, because there's evidence that there's wind in it 0:22:26.320 --> 0:22:28.320 or puff in it, wan, a bit of puff in it. 0:22:28.359 --> 0:22:34.320 Actually the wind is behind it. Perhaps, is that perhaps 0:22:34.840 --> 0:22:35.880 where we're coming from as. 0:22:35.840 --> 0:22:40.280 Opposed to we will it's not a wet sile put 0:22:40.280 --> 0:22:41.800 it that way. 0:22:42.600 --> 0:22:46.040 Okay, very interesting. I've got really good questions this week, folks. 0:22:46.080 --> 0:22:50.000