1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:02,360 Speaker 1: My guest in the studio right now, Jim Rooney from 2 00:00:02,400 --> 00:00:05,440 Speaker 1: Sage International, and he's here to answer your questions as 3 00:00:05,480 --> 00:00:07,720 Speaker 1: well about a Trump win eight double two to three 4 00:00:07,760 --> 00:00:09,880 Speaker 1: double o double oh junk. Good morning to You're welcome, 5 00:00:10,000 --> 00:00:12,080 Speaker 1: Good morning. You great to be here, math thank you 6 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 1: for coming in taking the time to do that this morning. 7 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:15,200 Speaker 1: I know you're up to the dentist. 8 00:00:15,360 --> 00:00:18,919 Speaker 2: Yes, I am so looking forward to I bet, I bet. 9 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:22,720 Speaker 1: Now. Look, there's so much to unpack here, and if 10 00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:27,000 Speaker 1: we start with the election campaign, no one expected such 11 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:28,520 Speaker 1: a big result for Trump and so so. 12 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:32,040 Speaker 2: Look, honestly, when I was watching the votes come in, 13 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:34,479 Speaker 2: what surprised me most of all was the fact that 14 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:37,560 Speaker 2: even in democratic states there were huge swings towards Trump. 15 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:40,080 Speaker 2: I mean, we're looking at thirty forty percent, and I'm 16 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:43,199 Speaker 2: thinking to myself, what is going on here? You know, 17 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:47,920 Speaker 2: everyone literally on the progressive side of the American political equation, 18 00:00:48,120 --> 00:00:52,680 Speaker 2: including the media, mainstream media, got it's so wrong. And 19 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 2: I think that it's, you know, on reflection and you know, 20 00:00:56,240 --> 00:00:59,200 Speaker 2: thinking things through last night, I suspect strongly that there 21 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 2: were many deep held antipathies that were going on, and 22 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:06,400 Speaker 2: I think that most of them, because, as we already 23 00:01:06,440 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 2: know so far, much of Trump's much of Trump's support 24 00:01:10,959 --> 00:01:15,840 Speaker 2: came from disaffected white Americans who are living in rost 25 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 2: belt states or are living in depressed economies. You know, 26 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 2: the DEI or the diversity quotas are the things that 27 00:01:22,959 --> 00:01:26,760 Speaker 2: motivate Democrats in their political scheme of things. So you know, 28 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:30,080 Speaker 2: if you were black or brown, you got ahead, but 29 00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 2: if you were white, you didn't because you had white privilege, 30 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 2: and so therefore it's your turn to suffer. And I 31 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,240 Speaker 2: think that that was a very bitter pill for many 32 00:01:39,240 --> 00:01:42,240 Speaker 2: white Americans to swallow. What was also amazing was the 33 00:01:42,280 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 2: fact that the women didn't come out in support of 34 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 2: Harris for the whole reproductive rights issue, which I thought 35 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:51,720 Speaker 2: would have, you know, triggered a lands a historic landslide 36 00:01:51,880 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 2: for Harris just on the female vote alone. But obviously 37 00:01:56,760 --> 00:02:00,800 Speaker 2: the women for Trump were far outnumbering these ones, and 38 00:02:01,280 --> 00:02:05,800 Speaker 2: they don't mind the fact that Roe versus Wade has well, 39 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:07,560 Speaker 2: let's put it this way, and I'm so sorry, I 40 00:02:07,600 --> 00:02:09,440 Speaker 2: don't know how to switch my watch off. It's bringing the. 41 00:02:09,440 --> 00:02:12,359 Speaker 1: Left right the center five bucks a time, you know, Yeah, 42 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:14,359 Speaker 1: but you know, I. 43 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 2: Really don't know how to really unpack that element, because 44 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:21,000 Speaker 2: I suppose that was also another unexpected thing. 45 00:02:21,360 --> 00:02:24,959 Speaker 1: Yeah, abortion is an interesting topic and it's been a 46 00:02:24,960 --> 00:02:27,080 Speaker 1: big issue in America, but perhaps not as big as 47 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:30,040 Speaker 1: obviously you know, in inverted commas, the elites think it is. 48 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 2: Well, that's right, and I'm glad that you raised the 49 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 2: E word because a lot of what I saw during 50 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:38,079 Speaker 2: the campaign, and you know, as it was explaining earlier 51 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:40,800 Speaker 2: to the lady that brought me up up to the studio, 52 00:02:41,040 --> 00:02:44,120 Speaker 2: I said that the thing that I have been witnessing 53 00:02:44,960 --> 00:02:47,240 Speaker 2: and what was really apparent, there were two things that 54 00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:50,280 Speaker 2: stood out for me and about the Harris campaign was 55 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 2: the elitist agenda. It was all about what Tayte things. 56 00:02:54,040 --> 00:02:56,720 Speaker 2: It was all about what a Beyonce things saw, George 57 00:02:56,760 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 2: Clooney things. Yes, you know, and I'm thinking to myself, 58 00:02:59,400 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 2: why she doing that? I mean, Trump, for all his faults, 59 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:05,880 Speaker 2: went out and spoke to the communities in America that 60 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 2: were hurting. And of course, you know, when you're desperate 61 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,400 Speaker 2: and scrambling around for hope, you look for you'll grasp 62 00:03:11,400 --> 00:03:13,839 Speaker 2: at any straw, and Trump was the straw. Of course, 63 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 2: he's going to betray everyone that supports. 64 00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 1: I mean he said he's you know politicians, right. We 65 00:03:19,560 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 1: didn't say my promise is to keep my promises right. 66 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:25,560 Speaker 2: Well, you know, Joseph Gebels said it once, very well, 67 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:27,920 Speaker 2: a repeated lie often enough and it becomes the truth, 68 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:30,359 Speaker 2: right and he and that was really the element of 69 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:34,280 Speaker 2: his campaign. Joseph Gebels must be celebrating in hades right now, 70 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 2: or hell or wherever the hell he is, somewhere there, yes, 71 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 2: somewhere there, somewhere down below, because at the moment it 72 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 2: just seems that his theory of politics has played out 73 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 2: perfectly in the United States. 74 00:03:46,360 --> 00:03:48,200 Speaker 1: Is that a bit of a snub though, what you've 75 00:03:48,240 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: just said to all the people who support Trump, I 76 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:52,960 Speaker 1: mean they're looking at him, you know, with hope, not 77 00:03:53,000 --> 00:03:55,200 Speaker 1: particularly on the economy. It's not a snub at all. 78 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 2: I understand why people are looking at Trump. I understand 79 00:03:58,680 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 2: why they voted for him. What is something that I 80 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:05,960 Speaker 2: don't quite understand is that with his existing political record 81 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:10,160 Speaker 2: of flip flopping, unpredictability, not standing. See, he demands loyalty 82 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 2: from everyone, but he doesn't give loyalty. And this is 83 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 2: a critical thing for political analysts who's looking at these 84 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 2: things and thinking Okay, so what's this guy going to 85 00:04:18,400 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 2: do for the future of America. Well, he didn't stand 86 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:23,919 Speaker 2: by a lot of the people that were loyal to 87 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:27,159 Speaker 2: him in his first administration, and now that he's got 88 00:04:27,200 --> 00:04:29,120 Speaker 2: more power that he had than he had during his 89 00:04:29,160 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 2: first administration is don't forget. He's also got the Senate 90 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 2: and the House of Represents. 91 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 1: He had in that first two years though, didn't he Yeah, 92 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:36,839 Speaker 1: but then. 93 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,039 Speaker 2: It all sort of went and there were sort of 94 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 2: other checks and balances and adults in the room that 95 00:04:41,160 --> 00:04:44,320 Speaker 2: actually acted as breaks on Trump's worst instincts. But now 96 00:04:44,320 --> 00:04:46,479 Speaker 2: he doesn't have that, so he goes into Trump two 97 00:04:46,480 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 2: point oh, the period of Trump two point oh, with 98 00:04:49,680 --> 00:04:52,160 Speaker 2: no guardrails. So it'll be interesting to see what he 99 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:55,320 Speaker 2: does now. I mean, there is media hyperbole, and I 100 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:57,600 Speaker 2: suppose there's one thing saying, well, okay, we can demonize 101 00:04:57,640 --> 00:05:00,280 Speaker 2: Trump and he'll he'll probably work out to be much 102 00:05:00,279 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 2: better president than anyone ever expected. But going on his 103 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:06,320 Speaker 2: past record, and one only has his past record to. 104 00:05:06,279 --> 00:05:09,039 Speaker 1: Deal with, it wasn't a disaster, though, was it? I mean? Yes, 105 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:13,600 Speaker 1: chaotic over COVID, particularly absolute chaos. Right, inject yourself with bleach. 106 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 1: What was he thinking saying that, but the economy was humming, 107 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:22,680 Speaker 1: the peace stills in the Middle East were good. Peace 108 00:05:22,760 --> 00:05:25,200 Speaker 1: right through is his period in terms of no war. 109 00:05:25,720 --> 00:05:27,839 Speaker 2: Yeah, but you know, there are a couple of caveats 110 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 2: just on that alone. You know, following the assassination of 111 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 2: the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Core commander Sulimani, Donald Trump almost 112 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 2: allowed US bombers to go into Iran and do the unthinkable, 113 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:43,359 Speaker 2: and that is level the Iranian regime. So I'm not 114 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:45,839 Speaker 2: so convinced that now that he's got the power to 115 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:48,760 Speaker 2: literally do what he likes and he unchecked that he 116 00:05:48,800 --> 00:05:51,359 Speaker 2: won't use that power, and he'll use it in a 117 00:05:51,480 --> 00:05:55,239 Speaker 2: very transactional kind of way, a very unpredictable way, because 118 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 2: that's what his Art of the Deal philosophy is all about. 119 00:05:57,880 --> 00:05:58,360 Speaker 1: Business. 120 00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 2: I'm not sure that that's something that we can all 121 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:02,159 Speaker 2: sort of sit back and say, yeah, yeah. 122 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 1: That's all good. We'll see. Let's go to calls and 123 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:06,840 Speaker 1: Rodgers rung in from Ilen can. 124 00:06:06,760 --> 00:06:12,880 Speaker 3: I Roger, Yeah, Hi, Donald Trump had a substantial victory. 125 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 3: There was no need for a photo finishes. I can 126 00:06:18,440 --> 00:06:23,880 Speaker 3: well imagine President Trump would still say his the last 127 00:06:23,920 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 3: election was robbed from him. Does this substantial victory give 128 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:36,279 Speaker 3: any credibility to the claim that his last election was 129 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:38,839 Speaker 3: stolen from him? 130 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:41,880 Speaker 2: Well, actually, hang on, hang on, tack Manthea. I think 131 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 2: that yes, it does in his narrative, and we have 132 00:06:45,800 --> 00:06:48,400 Speaker 2: to talk about Donald Trump the individual here. In his 133 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:52,479 Speaker 2: narrative of how things worked out, he will always say 134 00:06:52,720 --> 00:06:54,600 Speaker 2: that twenty twenty was stolen. 135 00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:56,000 Speaker 1: From him because he could not admit defeat. 136 00:06:56,120 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 2: No, he cannot. And actually, if you read the Art 137 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:03,320 Speaker 2: of the Deal, one of the key precepts is never 138 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:07,280 Speaker 2: conceide defeat, even when clearly you have lost. So it's 139 00:07:07,279 --> 00:07:09,720 Speaker 2: all that sort of tough guy rhetoric sort of thing. 140 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:12,480 Speaker 2: I'm going to get there. I won that election. It 141 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 2: was stolen from me. 142 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:13,840 Speaker 1: You know. 143 00:07:13,920 --> 00:07:17,400 Speaker 2: It's all about that, and that's how he projects himself. 144 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 2: But I think now we can sit back and say 145 00:07:19,360 --> 00:07:21,640 Speaker 2: it's not going to be as bad because he won 146 00:07:21,680 --> 00:07:22,160 Speaker 2: this election. 147 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:23,120 Speaker 1: He won it clearly. 148 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 2: So probably the narrative of the twenty twenty steel will 149 00:07:27,320 --> 00:07:30,160 Speaker 2: probably go toward the background while he focuses on his 150 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:30,960 Speaker 2: new administration. 151 00:07:32,000 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: Con At McGill got I con good morning for us. 152 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:40,240 Speaker 4: Yeah, my question is this instigator of the capital riot 153 00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:45,880 Speaker 4: unforgivable Act of that. What would be needed to change 154 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:47,200 Speaker 4: the constitution for him to. 155 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 3: Have a third term. 156 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:50,640 Speaker 2: Oh, that's a good question. 157 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 1: How do you change the US constitution here, it's a referendum. 158 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:58,920 Speaker 2: Yeah. Look, honestly, I would have to go and dig 159 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:02,320 Speaker 2: up my American politics one on one to give you 160 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 2: the definitive answer. But from what I understand the once 161 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 2: you have executive authority, so long as you can command 162 00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:12,720 Speaker 2: a majority sway within the Upper House and the lower 163 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 2: House of Congress, you would have enough theft if you will. 164 00:08:17,880 --> 00:08:21,040 Speaker 1: That's how the Republicans did it to stop what was 165 00:08:21,080 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 1: his name, FDR running for a fifth term. In mind you, 166 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 1: he died in the fourth, but they didn't want him 167 00:08:26,840 --> 00:08:31,080 Speaker 1: to have a fifth and so they limited through Congress. 168 00:08:31,120 --> 00:08:33,360 Speaker 1: That's how it was done. That's right. They limited through 169 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:36,079 Speaker 1: Congress the ability of any president in the future to 170 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:37,840 Speaker 1: have more than two Yeah, and. 171 00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 4: Mind you, ye, mind you, fellows. I think you'll passed 172 00:08:43,040 --> 00:08:45,000 Speaker 4: that too. Muscles. 173 00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:47,719 Speaker 2: Well, well, this is a dangerous thing, I've got to say. 174 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:50,440 Speaker 2: I mean, look, honestly, I was I was listening to 175 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 2: the rest of Politics on the way in and it's 176 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:56,240 Speaker 2: actually quite an interesting podcast. But anyway, there was one 177 00:08:56,280 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 2: thing that fell at the former Trump advisor Scaramuci set, 178 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:03,320 Speaker 2: which really stuck with me because I was thinking about 179 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:05,480 Speaker 2: that last night as well, and he actually gave voice 180 00:09:05,480 --> 00:09:07,400 Speaker 2: to it. Now we're on the verge of seeing the 181 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 2: United States going from a democratic republic to a republican oligarchy, 182 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 2: where you know it's going to be all about Trump's 183 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 2: family getting lucrative jobs, positions, and so on and so forth. 184 00:09:18,320 --> 00:09:21,240 Speaker 2: It's all about making sure that the Trump family's political 185 00:09:21,240 --> 00:09:24,160 Speaker 2: futures are going to be secure. And that also includes 186 00:09:24,240 --> 00:09:26,280 Speaker 2: all the Trump mates like Elon. 187 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 1: Musk and others. Yeah, that's right. Musk is interesting, and 188 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:34,320 Speaker 1: there's a few people that can probably expect jobs in cabinet. 189 00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 1: One is Musk. He'll get something. He's going to be 190 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:44,320 Speaker 1: overseeing government waste. Apparently that's been the suggestion. So bringing 191 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:47,800 Speaker 1: in all these people, what does that mean for presidents? 192 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 1: Do this anyway they can? Their cabinet is not elected officials. 193 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:54,560 Speaker 1: Their appointments to cabinet look just. 194 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 2: On the first point, I have to say, running a 195 00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 2: government is not the same as running a business. Now, 196 00:10:00,320 --> 00:10:01,800 Speaker 2: I know that there are many people in the business 197 00:10:01,800 --> 00:10:04,480 Speaker 2: community who have very strong views about this because they 198 00:10:04,480 --> 00:10:06,920 Speaker 2: look at government. They encounter government face to face, and 199 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 2: they're always frustrated by the fact that you've got red tape, 200 00:10:09,679 --> 00:10:12,280 Speaker 2: you've got restrictions, you've got all sorts of things that 201 00:10:12,360 --> 00:10:16,080 Speaker 2: impede the full flow of business. Now, with that mentality, 202 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:18,560 Speaker 2: it's always, you know, an interesting thing when you go 203 00:10:18,600 --> 00:10:20,440 Speaker 2: into a political debate with these people. They say, well, 204 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 2: you know, I find a government would just step out 205 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:24,720 Speaker 2: of the way and let business take over. Well, okay, yes, 206 00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:27,680 Speaker 2: but business is motivated only by profit. It is not 207 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 2: motivated by a social compact with the government and the governing. 208 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:36,200 Speaker 2: So if we're starting to see the American government move 209 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:40,439 Speaker 2: into a pro business you know, and there it go 210 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 2: pro Elon Musk and Suckerberg and whatever else they have 211 00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 2: there on the books. That means that those guys will 212 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 2: get all the rich contracts it will get, but they 213 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:55,040 Speaker 2: will no care about the constituency because that other people 214 00:10:55,040 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 2: that stand in the way of profit are people, because 215 00:10:58,280 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 2: people will demand that government actually help them. But these 216 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:03,760 Speaker 2: people are going to be deaf and blind to those 217 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:07,720 Speaker 2: things because all we're driven by is the shareholders' profits. 218 00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, interesting. Let's look at Australia and Anthony ALBERESI 219 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:15,040 Speaker 1: just in the middle of a media conference now, but 220 00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:18,040 Speaker 1: made this point about the US election. 221 00:11:17,880 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 5: By in the United States are old, ourllies and true friends. 222 00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 5: Our nations are bound by a history of shared sacrifice, 223 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:30,000 Speaker 5: a commitment to common values, and above all, enduring respect 224 00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:34,680 Speaker 5: and affection between our peoples. I look forward to talking 225 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 5: with President Trump and working with him in the interest 226 00:11:37,320 --> 00:11:40,960 Speaker 5: of both of our nations. President Trump has run a 227 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 5: campaign based on change, and he has made it clear 228 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:46,800 Speaker 5: he's going to do things differently. So we shouldn't be 229 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:50,720 Speaker 5: surprised as things change. But equally we should be really 230 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:55,319 Speaker 5: confident in ourselves and our place in the world as well, 231 00:11:55,360 --> 00:12:00,520 Speaker 5: and our ability to deliver on our interests together as Australian. 232 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 1: All right, so we'll get on no matter who is 233 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 1: in charge. Is what he's saying. What does it mean 234 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:07,360 Speaker 1: for Orcus realistically? 235 00:12:08,120 --> 00:12:08,959 Speaker 2: I'm glad you asked. 236 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: I think I've always got to ask. 237 00:12:11,880 --> 00:12:14,200 Speaker 2: I think that I think Orcust is going to change. 238 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:18,680 Speaker 2: I suspect there had been rumors prior to the election 239 00:12:19,559 --> 00:12:23,440 Speaker 2: that the Americans were seriously looking at scrapping the Virginia 240 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:28,000 Speaker 2: class submarines for Australia in favor of a deal whereby 241 00:12:28,120 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 2: Royal Australian Navy personnel will co crew American boats that 242 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:37,439 Speaker 2: rotate through the region using Fremantle as their base of operations. 243 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:41,679 Speaker 2: Now that's that was a rumor back then. But you see, 244 00:12:42,120 --> 00:12:44,640 Speaker 2: because Trump is running an America first strategy and it's 245 00:12:44,640 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 2: all about American jobs and American US and American that 246 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 2: once the orchest paperwork hits his desk, he will sit 247 00:12:51,240 --> 00:12:54,320 Speaker 2: back and say, we don't have enough submarines for our navy. 248 00:12:54,320 --> 00:12:56,680 Speaker 2: Why are we giving six or eight submarines to or 249 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:59,680 Speaker 2: what were however many we pledged ourselves to buy free, 250 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:03,600 Speaker 2: sorry three submarines to the Royal Australian Navy. But when 251 00:13:03,640 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 2: our navy is short on submarines, now you know that's 252 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:10,720 Speaker 2: going to cause an enormous amount of grief for the 253 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:14,200 Speaker 2: Albaneze government and any future Australian government. What part of 254 00:13:14,280 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 2: UCAS may stay intact is a pillar two, because of 255 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:20,320 Speaker 2: course we know we've got two pillars. The pillar one 256 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:23,360 Speaker 2: is a submarine deal. Pillar two are all the other 257 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 2: behind the closed door deals about technology sharing and intelligence 258 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:29,839 Speaker 2: sharing and all that kind of stuff. All that good 259 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:34,800 Speaker 2: stuff will remain in place, probably because it won't hurt 260 00:13:34,840 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 2: American jobs in the same way as a submarine deal. 261 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 1: And we are their eyes and ears down here, aren't we. Well, 262 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 1: we are. 263 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 2: We'll be turning ourselves into an American firebase. We have 264 00:13:43,000 --> 00:13:44,839 Speaker 2: been now for the last five years. And I think 265 00:13:44,880 --> 00:13:46,880 Speaker 2: that that evolution is going to continue. 266 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:48,959 Speaker 1: All right. What does it mean for trade? All the 267 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 1: tariff policies? Now? Trump needs Congress to get tariffs through, 268 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:56,880 Speaker 1: doesn't he, And he may very well win Congress, and 269 00:13:57,120 --> 00:14:02,000 Speaker 1: then the American politicians don't always vote along party lines 270 00:14:02,040 --> 00:14:04,960 Speaker 1: in the way ours do, and they do fluctuate, so 271 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:09,200 Speaker 1: you might get Republicans voting with Democrats against this. I mean, 272 00:14:09,240 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 1: who knows remains to be seen. 273 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:13,000 Speaker 2: That's an Actually, that's a very interesting point you raise. 274 00:14:13,080 --> 00:14:17,400 Speaker 2: And I think that as we saw during the presidential campaign, 275 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:21,720 Speaker 2: we saw some very senior Republicans endorse Kamala Harris. And 276 00:14:21,760 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 2: I think that if I'm a betting man, I will 277 00:14:25,360 --> 00:14:29,200 Speaker 2: see Republicans in Congress acting as the adults in the room. 278 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:33,920 Speaker 2: Trump surrounds himself with loyalists, so that I think that 279 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,360 Speaker 2: the US Congress, even Republicans, are not going to be 280 00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,560 Speaker 2: so died in the WALLMAGA and will have a much 281 00:14:38,560 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 2: more rational approach to how America will conduct trade, because, 282 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:47,480 Speaker 2: of course, you know, if Trump's mega fantasy, the very 283 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 2: good fantasy of trying to get all these tariffs into place, 284 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:54,280 Speaker 2: He's going to set off a trade war. And you know, 285 00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 2: little old Australia here we deal with the Chinese quite nicely. 286 00:14:58,240 --> 00:14:59,840 Speaker 2: And if all of a sudden the Americans prevent us 287 00:14:59,840 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 2: from trading with China, where are we going to get 288 00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:06,000 Speaker 2: all our goods from because we make nothing. We dig 289 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 2: stuff out of the ground, we grow stuff and sell it, 290 00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:12,280 Speaker 2: but we make nothing. Our compact for the future was 291 00:15:12,320 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 2: to get rid of industrial, industrial and manufacturing in the country, 292 00:15:18,360 --> 00:15:21,160 Speaker 2: thinking that if we offshore to cheaper places, we'll be 293 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 2: able to re import all that stuff, you know, at 294 00:15:24,040 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 2: cost to the Australian consumer. Well, if a trade walk 295 00:15:27,400 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 2: kicks off and all of a sudden, that gigantic market 296 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 2: of China, which we are now very much integrated in, 297 00:15:33,560 --> 00:15:36,560 Speaker 2: is forbidden territory for us to go into. You know, 298 00:15:36,600 --> 00:15:39,760 Speaker 2: anything that we thought that we suffered from during the 299 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:43,120 Speaker 2: COVID problems with China are going to be eclipsed by 300 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 2: whatever Trump will roll through in terms of economic policy. 301 00:15:46,960 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 1: Ya all right, John, Brunei is here from Sage International. 302 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 1: Any questions you've got about Trump's win? You know, what 303 00:15:52,280 --> 00:15:54,280 Speaker 1: does it mean for democracy, what does it mean for 304 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 1: the world, whatever it might be. Love to hear from you. 305 00:15:57,160 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 1: Eight double two to three double o double. Oh thanks 306 00:15:59,160 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: to Leu and Ran. You need sixty six percent in 307 00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:07,400 Speaker 1: both houses of Congress to change the constitution, according to Run, 308 00:16:07,440 --> 00:16:09,880 Speaker 1: and Lou says just the Senate, but somewhere along the 309 00:16:09,880 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 1: way or the other way around. I think. 310 00:16:11,600 --> 00:16:14,520 Speaker 2: Actually, actually, if can you say something here? Tammy just 311 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:18,400 Speaker 2: gave us a brief from the White House website. An 312 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 2: amendment may be proposed by a two thirds vote of 313 00:16:21,240 --> 00:16:24,360 Speaker 2: both houses of Congress, or if two thirds of states 314 00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 2: request one by convention called for that purpose. The amendment 315 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,760 Speaker 2: must be then ratified by three fourths of the state 316 00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 2: legislatures or three fourths of conventions called in each state 317 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:38,400 Speaker 2: for ratification. Okay, so that's how the machinery of that works. 318 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:41,640 Speaker 1: And that's difficult because that's like an Australian referendum. Not 319 00:16:41,680 --> 00:16:44,040 Speaker 1: only do you need an absolute majority, you need two 320 00:16:44,120 --> 00:16:46,600 Speaker 1: jorities of the states. Yes, whatever it is, majority of 321 00:16:46,640 --> 00:16:49,880 Speaker 1: the states. Yeah, So not that easy to get past. No, no, 322 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:53,160 Speaker 1: we need not, and so a third term probably unlikely 323 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:57,880 Speaker 1: is the outcome. There a couple of texts he might 324 00:16:57,880 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: want to respond to these, just as we go to 325 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 1: the news. Let's not forget Trump claiming twenty twenty with stolen. 326 00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:05,440 Speaker 1: It's not unique to this day. Hillary Clinton claims twenty 327 00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:09,119 Speaker 1: sixteen with stolen and called him an illegitimate president, started 328 00:17:09,119 --> 00:17:11,360 Speaker 1: the whole Russian collusion hoax. That's rem Mark. 329 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:15,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, Well, you know, everyone trades barbs in politics. It's 330 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 2: high stakes for those people involved. But what we can't 331 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:23,399 Speaker 2: actually say is that Hillary Clinton inspired a rabble to 332 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:27,120 Speaker 2: storm the Capital building. So really the nature of the 333 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,919 Speaker 2: barb that Clinton threw in was quite light in comparison 334 00:17:30,920 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 2: to what has been accused by what Trump has been 335 00:17:35,040 --> 00:17:37,680 Speaker 2: accused of, basically as fermenting an insurrection. 336 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:43,800 Speaker 1: All right, John Bruney, Sage International, International Analyst. So many questions, 337 00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:46,320 Speaker 1: but let's go to David up in the Hills. Firstly, David, 338 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:47,440 Speaker 1: good morning, Good morning. 339 00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,480 Speaker 6: Now I made misunderstand. The underlying fact is that mister 340 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:54,680 Speaker 6: Trump's victory pretty much forks pay to lyaring interest rates. 341 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:57,000 Speaker 6: The stray most from my reading, will cause them to 342 00:17:57,119 --> 00:18:03,320 Speaker 6: rise because of his those policies of international trade barriers 343 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:06,680 Speaker 6: which will slow the flow of money. Am I misunderstanding 344 00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:08,080 Speaker 6: or am I on the right type. 345 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 2: Look, we're in that sort of twilight zone right now 346 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:13,000 Speaker 2: where at the moment, as you probably have noticed, the 347 00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 2: markets have gone up considerably because a lot of the 348 00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:20,280 Speaker 2: people who run the corporations think that Donald Trump is 349 00:18:20,320 --> 00:18:23,080 Speaker 2: their man, and he will do whatever he needs to 350 00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 2: do cut taxes on corporates and to ensure that they 351 00:18:26,640 --> 00:18:30,480 Speaker 2: get a much more fair treatment than what the US 352 00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,719 Speaker 2: electors probably will end up having. So that is something 353 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:36,040 Speaker 2: that we're seeing at the moment. But if he is 354 00:18:36,119 --> 00:18:38,360 Speaker 2: true to his word, and as Matthew was saying earlier, 355 00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:40,280 Speaker 2: Trump says that you know, you've got to believe him 356 00:18:40,280 --> 00:18:42,080 Speaker 2: this time around, because he's going to make everything that 357 00:18:42,119 --> 00:18:44,919 Speaker 2: he promises happen. And he has been promising that he 358 00:18:45,000 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 2: is going to conduct a tariff war on pretty much everyone, 359 00:18:49,840 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 2: including allies, foes, you name it. That's also going to 360 00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:57,399 Speaker 2: spook the market. So whatever, you know, whatever, one thousand percent. 361 00:18:57,440 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 2: I think the Dow Jones index went up since Trump's victory. 362 00:19:02,240 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 2: I'm sure that that's only a temporary phenomenon, because as 363 00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:06,840 Speaker 2: soon as the first tariffs come out, which will fundamentally 364 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:10,520 Speaker 2: alter trade internationally, and the corporates, you know, they may 365 00:19:10,560 --> 00:19:12,560 Speaker 2: be riding high now, but they're going to be having 366 00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 2: second thoughts at some point. 367 00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:18,440 Speaker 1: Yeah. Interesting, David, thank you, great question. Keith and Highbury, 368 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:20,240 Speaker 1: good morning, Good morning, gentlemen. 369 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 5: I hope you will. 370 00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:21,360 Speaker 2: Thank you. 371 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:27,879 Speaker 7: I totally disagree with your tariff's comment. Actually, because Trump 372 00:19:27,960 --> 00:19:31,040 Speaker 7: hasn't said he's going to tariff everybody, including his allies. 373 00:19:31,119 --> 00:19:34,919 Speaker 7: What his main right was was mainly Detroit and the 374 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:40,440 Speaker 7: Detroit car makers four GM, Chrysler moving their base of 375 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:47,240 Speaker 7: operations to Mexico, and the Chinese government building the biggest 376 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:50,840 Speaker 7: car plant in Mexico and thinking they were going to 377 00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:57,119 Speaker 7: destroy the American manufacturing and jobs and excuse me, shift 378 00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:01,120 Speaker 7: those cars tariff free into the United State. The Chinese 379 00:20:01,119 --> 00:20:04,720 Speaker 7: have actually stopped building that plant now because Trump said, 380 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:07,399 Speaker 7: if I get into offers, the first thing I'm going 381 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 7: to do is I'm going to slap a twenty five 382 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:12,200 Speaker 7: percent tariff on it. If it doesn't work, it's going 383 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,520 Speaker 7: to fifty then all the way up to one hundred. 384 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 7: So the manufacturers, including the American car plants, who are 385 00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,840 Speaker 7: just greedy, don't want to pay American wages, much like 386 00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:28,120 Speaker 7: our manufacturing here in Australia was totally destroyed by corrupt, 387 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 7: less and right governments shipping our jobs off to China, 388 00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,240 Speaker 7: which is a total disgrace, and a country that doesn't 389 00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:38,719 Speaker 7: have manufacturing is a country in decline. 390 00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:41,480 Speaker 1: It wasn't it just cheaper imports coming in? I mean 391 00:20:41,520 --> 00:20:44,840 Speaker 1: that was you know you could buy a Korean bought 392 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:47,360 Speaker 1: a made car for half the price of an Australian 393 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:47,679 Speaker 1: made car. 394 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:51,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, exactly. The reason well, you know, the weight 395 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:54,119 Speaker 2: of the economies are different, the scale of the industries 396 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,800 Speaker 2: are different. And obviously I think Keith is quite right. 397 00:20:57,840 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 2: You know, we made a pact with the Devil many 398 00:20:59,640 --> 00:21:01,840 Speaker 2: years ago, go saying that, well, why do we want 399 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 2: to create things here when the cost of Australian. 400 00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 1: Labor it's just so high. 401 00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 2: Let's do it from Asia where it's so low and 402 00:21:07,880 --> 00:21:10,800 Speaker 2: we can re import things. But the thing that Keith 403 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 2: and the listeners have to understand is that once that 404 00:21:14,600 --> 00:21:20,800 Speaker 2: first tariff, you know, shot gets thrown across the bowels 405 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 2: of China, the retaliation is going to be there as well, 406 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:25,879 Speaker 2: and it's going to be like mutually assured destruction. Because 407 00:21:26,400 --> 00:21:29,200 Speaker 2: what we you know, when Trump talks, it's almost as 408 00:21:29,200 --> 00:21:32,760 Speaker 2: if America is only America in a vacuum. 409 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:33,280 Speaker 1: It is not. 410 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 2: China is integrated to America, and America is integrated into China. 411 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:40,720 Speaker 2: So whatever the Americans do to the Chinese and the 412 00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 2: Chinese do back to the Americans, they are tearing themselves 413 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:46,680 Speaker 2: to pieces. And at some point that is going to 414 00:21:46,720 --> 00:21:49,879 Speaker 2: be the point at which there will be a major 415 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 2: and significant clash between those two. 416 00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 1: Well, let's hope not. Well, yeah, Kevin Rudd as ambassador, 417 00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,399 Speaker 1: can he last in that job? Seeing he called Trump? 418 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,320 Speaker 1: Was it the range that he said and whatever he said? 419 00:22:01,320 --> 00:22:02,760 Speaker 1: He was very critical of Donald Trump. 420 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 2: Gee, if that if Trump's vice president J. D. Var Advance, 421 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 2: I should say, if he can go around and say 422 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 2: that Trump was Hitler in a book and then you know, 423 00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:15,240 Speaker 2: become his vice president a couple of years later, Well, gee, 424 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 2: I don't know. I think that fear shake of the 425 00:22:17,520 --> 00:22:20,040 Speaker 2: source mode, I think I think I think might be 426 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:20,640 Speaker 2: able to get through. 427 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 1: Well, I don't know. I reckon Trump would regard rad 428 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 1: as not Vance. 429 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:26,919 Speaker 2: Well, Well, I don't know. But Vance said something that 430 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:30,480 Speaker 2: was just so egregious at the time. It seems and look, 431 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:32,040 Speaker 2: you know again, this is a pattern of behavior that 432 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:35,280 Speaker 2: we've seen with Trump for some time. Trump is very forgiving. 433 00:22:35,320 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 2: If you bend the knee, if you if you save 434 00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:38,800 Speaker 2: me a corpa, Yes I did that and I'm so 435 00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,440 Speaker 2: shamed for it. Then you know, please forgive me. Great man. 436 00:22:41,640 --> 00:22:44,520 Speaker 2: He will say, okay, no problems until you cross him 437 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:46,160 Speaker 2: the second time, and then the second time you're around. 438 00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:49,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, Well that's that's interesting. Let's look at the 439 00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,399 Speaker 1: big question. And Diane asked this on online on the 440 00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,119 Speaker 1: text line as well, and we were talking about this 441 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:57,560 Speaker 1: during the news headlines Ukraine. What happens next? 442 00:22:58,040 --> 00:23:01,239 Speaker 2: Well, President Zelenski of Ukraine is not going to be 443 00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:05,560 Speaker 2: long for this world. I don't say that politically, yeah, politically, 444 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:06,959 Speaker 2: I don't mean that he's going to be taken out, 445 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 2: although you know, at the moment, the way things are 446 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,280 Speaker 2: going in Ukraine, anything's possible. But I think that the 447 00:23:11,320 --> 00:23:14,719 Speaker 2: clock is ticking on his leadership because effectively Trump has 448 00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:18,800 Speaker 2: said that in his first part of his administration he's 449 00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,640 Speaker 2: going to bring peace to Ukraine, which means well, exactly 450 00:23:22,680 --> 00:23:25,840 Speaker 2: on the first day actually, which means basically he's going 451 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 2: to force Ukraine into signing a peace with Russia, which 452 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:33,760 Speaker 2: will likely keep whatever Russia's got under occupation Russian territory. 453 00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:37,879 Speaker 2: After the sacrifices that Ukrainians have done to resist the 454 00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:42,760 Speaker 2: Russian invasion, will that will cause all sorts of crises 455 00:23:42,840 --> 00:23:47,040 Speaker 2: in Kiev. And I think that if Zelensky, if his 456 00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:50,399 Speaker 2: government falls, most of the people that supported him, will 457 00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:53,520 Speaker 2: leave the country, leaving the country, leaving the capital city 458 00:23:53,560 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 2: open to a pro Russian coup. And then I think 459 00:23:56,600 --> 00:23:59,840 Speaker 2: that yes, you know, Putin stands to win, not just 460 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:03,240 Speaker 2: the areas under his occupation, is force's occupation, but the 461 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,760 Speaker 2: whole box and dice will go to Russia. And that 462 00:24:05,880 --> 00:24:10,920 Speaker 2: will then see North Korean troops and Russian troops right 463 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,120 Speaker 2: up against the Polish border, which is likely to set 464 00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:18,520 Speaker 2: off a whole cascade of different reactions among the European states. 465 00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,800 Speaker 2: There's going to be a scramble to rearm Germany. And 466 00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,119 Speaker 2: you know that really ended badly last time that happened, 467 00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 2: you know, So I'm you know, the balance of power 468 00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,280 Speaker 2: in Europe is now really up for grabs, especially if 469 00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:35,880 Speaker 2: Trump also carries out his implied threat of withdrawing support 470 00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:39,159 Speaker 2: for NATO, which is also another critical issue here, so 471 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,919 Speaker 2: I really have a lot of fear about the European space. 472 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 2: I also have a lot of fear about the Indo Pacific. 473 00:24:45,880 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 2: A lot of people have been saying that Trump's main 474 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:49,719 Speaker 2: effort is going to be China, and it might be 475 00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:53,080 Speaker 2: from a rhetorical perspective, but if I was sitting in Taipei, 476 00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,879 Speaker 2: in Taiwan, I'd be thinking to myself, will g that 477 00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,919 Speaker 2: just abandoned Ukraine. What do you I mean if Trump 478 00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:03,480 Speaker 2: can strike a deal with xijingping to, I don't know, 479 00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:07,320 Speaker 2: ease relations, Sino American relations, and Taiwan gets thrown under 480 00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:10,080 Speaker 2: a bus. Well, that's transactional politics, isn't it. Taiwan is 481 00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:15,359 Speaker 2: the smaller party, China is the bigger party. Trump may think, well, 482 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 2: why are we supporting this little island it's going to 483 00:25:17,080 --> 00:25:19,119 Speaker 2: it's costing us a fortune sending ships out there and 484 00:25:19,160 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 2: planes out there, and who could be bothered? Let's make 485 00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:25,640 Speaker 2: friends with China, sell out Taiwan, and solve another great 486 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:29,040 Speaker 2: strategic crisis. Now some people would say, yeah, but John, 487 00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:31,400 Speaker 2: that's a great idea, because you know, a war is costly. 488 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 2: But then again, we've now become so used to a 489 00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:38,679 Speaker 2: relativist mindset that nothing is worth fighting for anymore. Nothing. 490 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,280 Speaker 2: I mean, before there was a thing called democracy that 491 00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,200 Speaker 2: we all loved and cherished and thought that was worth 492 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 2: the fight. We've bought World War II at least over 493 00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,360 Speaker 2: that very issue killed a lot of people world War two, 494 00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:53,000 Speaker 2: and you know, killing is a terrible thing, and war 495 00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:55,359 Speaker 2: is expensive, and that's not good for the economy. But 496 00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:59,680 Speaker 2: let's face it, if we don't stand up for our rights, 497 00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:03,960 Speaker 2: the likelihood of all of the West turning into many 498 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:07,119 Speaker 2: trump is stans at some point where populist agendas just 499 00:26:07,359 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 2: you know, keep on coming up and they can't be 500 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,640 Speaker 2: contained anymore is a very real prospect in the not 501 00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:13,560 Speaker 2: too distant future. 502 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 1: All right. The probably pessimistic side of that is if 503 00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:22,440 Speaker 1: the West doesn't keep propping up Ukraine. And it's a balance, right, 504 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 1: because if Ukraine are heavily armed, then Putin could push 505 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:27,080 Speaker 1: that button. 506 00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,240 Speaker 2: Couldn't, Yes, he couldn't. I'm glad you raised it, because again, 507 00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,080 Speaker 2: one of the things that your listeners have to understand 508 00:26:33,119 --> 00:26:35,240 Speaker 2: is that a lot of the military aid that had 509 00:26:35,240 --> 00:26:38,840 Speaker 2: been pledged to Ukraine had not arrived, So the Ukrainians 510 00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:42,359 Speaker 2: are fighting with fewer and fewer weapons, exposing themselves to 511 00:26:42,440 --> 00:26:45,920 Speaker 2: high degrees of casualties. The Europeans and the North Americans 512 00:26:45,920 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 2: are so frightened of Putin pressing the red button that 513 00:26:48,640 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 2: they're just thinking, no, look, you know, maybe this whole 514 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:51,879 Speaker 2: idea of back in Zeleninsky is. 515 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:52,919 Speaker 1: Not such a good idea. 516 00:26:53,080 --> 00:26:56,520 Speaker 2: But then that is, now, wait until the North Koreans 517 00:26:56,560 --> 00:26:59,240 Speaker 2: are up against the Polish will be there. Well, they're 518 00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 2: there because Putin is Putin is struggling. I mean a 519 00:27:03,000 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 2: lot of people will say that the war is going 520 00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:08,199 Speaker 2: Putin's way, but Putin is struggling internally, He's running out 521 00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:11,359 Speaker 2: of manpower. He's running the war as if he's in 522 00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,840 Speaker 2: charge of the Soviet Union. Now the Soviet Union, the 523 00:27:13,880 --> 00:27:17,920 Speaker 2: average family had six or seven children, sometimes ten, sometimes thirteen. 524 00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:22,800 Speaker 2: The average Russian family has one or none. So whoever 525 00:27:22,800 --> 00:27:24,840 Speaker 2: gets mobilized and set out to the front, even if 526 00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 2: they come from the boondoggles of Siberia, they're getting mowed 527 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 2: down because the Russian generals are fighting as though they 528 00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 2: are Zukov, you know, the famous Russian Soviet general in 529 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:36,280 Speaker 2: World War Two, where meat waves were the order of 530 00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 2: the day to crush the Nazis. So they've been so 531 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:43,639 Speaker 2: extravagant in wasting human capital on the battlefield, that they 532 00:27:43,680 --> 00:27:46,439 Speaker 2: had no other option but to either call out the 533 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:50,360 Speaker 2: full draft, which would include the wealthier oligarch's children from 534 00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:54,560 Speaker 2: Saint Petersburg and Moscow, or go to North Korea, get 535 00:27:54,560 --> 00:27:57,200 Speaker 2: a bunch of expendables from there, throw them into the 536 00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:58,359 Speaker 2: front line and see what happens. 537 00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:01,679 Speaker 1: Wow. Okay, so that's what's happening now, yep. Essentially, goodness me. 538 00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:05,159 Speaker 1: All right. So there's that Middle East. What's going to 539 00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 1: happen there? All right? 540 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:09,600 Speaker 2: This is this is where it gets really controversial. I 541 00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:15,000 Speaker 2: think Donald Trump and Benjamine Etna, who are best mates, Okay, 542 00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,640 Speaker 2: they see e to iron a lot of things. Jared Kushner, 543 00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:22,000 Speaker 2: Trump's son in law, has business interests in Israel. I 544 00:28:22,000 --> 00:28:25,800 Speaker 2: think even Trump himself has business interests in Israel, and 545 00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:30,400 Speaker 2: Netna who has been favorably disposed toward those business interests. 546 00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:33,680 Speaker 2: Trump has made it clear that he wants the war 547 00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,600 Speaker 2: over in Gaza, but he wants Israel to do what 548 00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:41,400 Speaker 2: is necessary to hurry up the process. Now, Israel's been 549 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:45,400 Speaker 2: doing a pretty good job of turning Gaza into just 550 00:28:45,440 --> 00:28:48,640 Speaker 2: a field of rubble, you know, I mean, have they 551 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,880 Speaker 2: won the war, No, will the war continue on? Well, 552 00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:56,120 Speaker 2: you know, if half my family's just been exterminated by 553 00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:58,719 Speaker 2: Israeli bombs, I think I'd be a bit angry and 554 00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,160 Speaker 2: probably pick up an AK forty seven, even though I 555 00:29:01,240 --> 00:29:03,640 Speaker 2: stand no chance in defeating the idea of but I 556 00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:05,560 Speaker 2: do it, and then my children would do it, and 557 00:29:05,600 --> 00:29:06,520 Speaker 2: then their children. 558 00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:06,760 Speaker 1: Would do it. 559 00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,080 Speaker 2: So we're seeing a cycle of violence. It's not going 560 00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:12,360 Speaker 2: to be easy to come back from. What more can 561 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:16,360 Speaker 2: Israel throw at Gaza before it actually becomes so bleeding 562 00:29:16,400 --> 00:29:19,640 Speaker 2: obvious that it's a genocide that's being conducted, or ethnic 563 00:29:19,720 --> 00:29:23,200 Speaker 2: cleansing at the very least. I don't know. But I mean, 564 00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:25,360 Speaker 2: if Trump says, hey. 565 00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:26,160 Speaker 1: Bib, go for it. 566 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,560 Speaker 2: Let's just just finish it off just so we can 567 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,880 Speaker 2: get on with life, Well, I don't know. If I 568 00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:34,440 Speaker 2: were betting man, Bib would probably think that he's got 569 00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:37,080 Speaker 2: green light, green light, green light to do what he likes. 570 00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:38,560 Speaker 1: But he's been doing that anyway, hasn't he? 571 00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,120 Speaker 2: Well he has, but with Trump's support, he'll be doing 572 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:42,440 Speaker 2: it faster and better. 573 00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:48,640 Speaker 1: All right, the process now, so Trump will be in 574 00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:50,960 Speaker 1: the midst of trying to pull people together. I'm sure 575 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,040 Speaker 1: he's probably got a list already that he wants around 576 00:29:53,080 --> 00:29:57,200 Speaker 1: him to govern the US. We've talked of Musk. There's 577 00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:01,120 Speaker 1: the lady Gabbard who was a Democrat until see yeah, 578 00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:04,400 Speaker 1: and frankly should have been Joe Biden's pick for vice president. 579 00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,040 Speaker 1: She ran in the primaries against him, but she would 580 00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,720 Speaker 1: have been a far better option, I think than Kamala 581 00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:12,719 Speaker 1: Harris to have been vice president and take on the reins. 582 00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,760 Speaker 1: No one's blaming Joe Biden yet sticking around too long, 583 00:30:15,880 --> 00:30:16,960 Speaker 1: adamant he could have won. 584 00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 2: Now people are starting to do that and there is 585 00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:23,040 Speaker 2: certainly a lot of that at stake. Look, Harris didn't 586 00:30:23,080 --> 00:30:27,720 Speaker 2: have I mean amazingly. The election was far closer than 587 00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:30,400 Speaker 2: I would have expected, considering the lack of time that 588 00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:34,400 Speaker 2: Harris had to prepare herself. But it just wasn't enough time. 589 00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:39,400 Speaker 2: And again, you know, Democrat, the Democrats can't help themselves. 590 00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:42,800 Speaker 2: They are elitist. They do believe that they're you know, 591 00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,400 Speaker 2: the people who don't vote Democrat are deplorable, and that 592 00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:47,760 Speaker 2: all started off with Hillary Clinton. So this is a 593 00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:50,560 Speaker 2: long standing problem that the Democrats have in being able 594 00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:53,480 Speaker 2: to relate to people who are hurting in the American 595 00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:56,440 Speaker 2: Frontier if you like, you know, the great unwashed. 596 00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 1: And then you get Biden saying their garbage well. 597 00:30:58,080 --> 00:30:59,720 Speaker 2: You know, and that look. I mean I've heard a 598 00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:01,720 Speaker 2: lot of Democrats over the last twenty four hours saying 599 00:31:01,720 --> 00:31:03,440 Speaker 2: to me, oh, but John, you know, I mean, you know, 600 00:31:03,480 --> 00:31:05,960 Speaker 2: he's an old man and he probably didn't mean it. 601 00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:09,840 Speaker 2: It's like, well, it was an opportune, stupid thing to 602 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:11,880 Speaker 2: have had an old man who doesn't know what he's 603 00:31:11,880 --> 00:31:16,600 Speaker 2: saying appear five minutes before, you know, game time to 604 00:31:16,600 --> 00:31:19,680 Speaker 2: say something that literally well, and I believe it actually 605 00:31:19,760 --> 00:31:21,840 Speaker 2: did have an impact because anyone that was sitting on 606 00:31:21,840 --> 00:31:24,160 Speaker 2: the fence thinking, oh no Trump, look, you know, I'll 607 00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:26,040 Speaker 2: go I don't like Harris, but I'll go for Harris 608 00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,400 Speaker 2: as soon as they heard that, hey, look i'm one 609 00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:30,840 Speaker 2: of the deplorables, I'm one of the underdogs. They've just 610 00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,600 Speaker 2: called me garbage bugger that I'm going Trump, And I 611 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:35,480 Speaker 2: think that that may have actually helped. 612 00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:38,400 Speaker 1: It's interesting in all the counties and you know, some 613 00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:42,240 Speaker 1: states of a hundred, if not more counties, there's not 614 00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:44,880 Speaker 1: one where a Democrat vote went up, and it went 615 00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,760 Speaker 1: down in all of them, every single county across America 616 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:50,640 Speaker 1: and there's well three four five thousand, correct. 617 00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:53,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean it was really amazing. I mean 618 00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:57,680 Speaker 2: in many ways, that in itself shows just how fundamentally 619 00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 2: wrong the Democrats are getting the United States. And I 620 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:03,560 Speaker 2: just want to pick you up on something you said earlier, 621 00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:05,560 Speaker 2: and that was, you know, well Trump is going to 622 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:09,760 Speaker 2: have to start pulling America together again. No. The very 623 00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:14,040 Speaker 2: famous Scottish American historian Neil Ferguson said recently in a 624 00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 2: substack that or wrote recently in a substack that America 625 00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:20,920 Speaker 2: is not going through an election, It's going through a divorce. 626 00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:24,560 Speaker 2: And I suspect he's right. I suspect that what we 627 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,760 Speaker 2: saw now is a divorce within the United States with 628 00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:31,680 Speaker 2: two camps that are mutually antagonistic. Now the Democrats at 629 00:32:31,680 --> 00:32:34,840 Speaker 2: the moment are licking their wounds, so's they're despondent, they're depressed, 630 00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,000 Speaker 2: you know, they're hanging their heads in shame. They I 631 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,440 Speaker 2: don't know what's going on, but that will then soon 632 00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:43,880 Speaker 2: turn to viciousness and also to resentment. And when that happens, 633 00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:45,320 Speaker 2: that's when the fund starts. 634 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:47,640 Speaker 1: We'll see what happens. John Brady, thank you for coming 635 00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:51,120 Speaker 1: in appreciate your time. Sage International. You can go to 636 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:54,400 Speaker 1: the website and fuse the international affairs analyst and knows 637 00:32:54,440 --> 00:32:54,840 Speaker 1: this stuff.