1 00:00:03,680 --> 00:00:06,560 Speaker 1: From the Australian. Here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey. 2 00:00:06,640 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 1: It's Thursday, January fifteenth, twenty twenty six. There are fresh 3 00:00:13,000 --> 00:00:16,000 Speaker 1: calls for governments to crack down on Elon Musk's Grok 4 00:00:16,200 --> 00:00:19,800 Speaker 1: artificial intelligence tool. Grok, which is embedded in the social 5 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:23,760 Speaker 1: media platform x formerly known as Twitter, has generated a 6 00:00:23,800 --> 00:00:28,040 Speaker 1: flood of sexualized, non consensual deep fake images of women 7 00:00:28,080 --> 00:00:32,600 Speaker 1: and children, the Australians, revealing today the influential Australian Council 8 00:00:32,640 --> 00:00:36,879 Speaker 1: of Trade Unions is demanding stronger regulation. But in the 9 00:00:36,960 --> 00:00:41,479 Speaker 1: United States, Defend Secretary Pete Hegseth says the Pentagon is 10 00:00:41,520 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: about to incorporate Grok into its internal platforms. Iran the 11 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: most exotic and romantic of countries, rich in history and 12 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:58,480 Speaker 1: blessed with natural beauty and immense oil and gas resources, 13 00:00:58,880 --> 00:01:02,680 Speaker 1: but now into its fifth decade, crippled by a brutally 14 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:06,920 Speaker 1: repressive regime that seeks to export its brand of militant 15 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 1: Islamic fundamentalism to the world via terror proxies like Hamas, 16 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: Hezbollah and the Hoofees. In recent days, the regime of 17 00:01:15,680 --> 00:01:20,319 Speaker 1: Ayatola Ali Kamane has crushed a rebellion that started with 18 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:24,919 Speaker 1: the shopkeepers of Tehran's Grand Bazaar. So what happens now? 19 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 1: Foreign editor Greg Sheridan is here. A year ago, the 20 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:38,399 Speaker 1: Islamic Republic of Iran was the all powerful sponsor of 21 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:42,479 Speaker 1: Hezblah Hamas and the hoofies, working towards a nuclear weapon 22 00:01:42,880 --> 00:01:46,520 Speaker 1: rich in oil dollars, standing strong against the United States 23 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:50,880 Speaker 1: and Israel. Now, Iran's terror proxies are broken, its nuclear 24 00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,360 Speaker 1: program is under a cloud, its economy is crippled, and 25 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 1: its streets are flowing with the blood of Iranian civilians 26 00:01:57,960 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 1: who tried to rise up against repression. President Trump is 27 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:06,360 Speaker 1: urging Iranian anti government demonstrators to care protesting, promising help 28 00:02:06,440 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: is on the way. 29 00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:10,840 Speaker 2: The large scale protests that began to run and spread 30 00:02:10,840 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 2: to several cities appear to have subsided, replaced by pro 31 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 2: government trallies broadcast on state media. 32 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:21,160 Speaker 1: The twenty six year old who was arrested days ago 33 00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 1: during demonstrations is now facing imminent execution in the. 34 00:02:25,320 --> 00:02:27,240 Speaker 2: Final death banks of a regime. 35 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 3: They're at their most dangerous. 36 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:36,760 Speaker 1: The riding began with the food sellers and hawkers of 37 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 1: Tehran's Grand Bazaar and has spread across the ninety million 38 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 1: plus population of this vast country. It's been met everywhere 39 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: with the guns of a sprawling security infrastructure that brooks 40 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 1: no dissent. We've been here before, with the twenty nineteen 41 00:02:54,280 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: uprising of economic hardship and the twenty twenty two protests 42 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 1: sparked when morality police beat to death a twenty two 43 00:03:03,320 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 1: year old woman, Masa Amini for allegedly wearing her head 44 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:08,239 Speaker 1: scarf incorrectly. 45 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:12,520 Speaker 4: Women in Iran sat their headscarves on fire and fury. 46 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:16,960 Speaker 4: They are tired after morality police beating them up and 47 00:03:17,040 --> 00:03:20,640 Speaker 4: the Islamic Republic leaders who police their every move. 48 00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,280 Speaker 1: This time, at least at first, the uprising seemed different 49 00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 1: from exile. Crown Prince Reza Paalavi called on Iranians to 50 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: rise up. Donald Trump promised to strike the regime if 51 00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:37,400 Speaker 1: it murdered its own people. Among the diaspora, there was hope. 52 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:45,200 Speaker 1: Now that hope seems to be fading. Greg Sheridan is 53 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 1: The Australian's foreign editor. Greg, we're seeing huge unrest in Iran. 54 00:03:49,400 --> 00:03:52,840 Speaker 1: Reports of tens of thousands of bodies hard to confirm, because, 55 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:56,480 Speaker 1: of course, the Iranian regime has shut down communications. Do 56 00:03:56,560 --> 00:03:59,280 Speaker 1: you feel that this is going to be the end 57 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:01,560 Speaker 1: of this regime or do you feel that it will survive? 58 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:06,720 Speaker 3: Clear quite pessimistically. I think it's likely the regime will survive. 59 00:04:07,040 --> 00:04:11,040 Speaker 3: The government has opened a little bit of the Internet today. 60 00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 3: They wouldn't do that if they didn't fill their in control. 61 00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:17,880 Speaker 3: There's no sign of a splintering in the security forces. 62 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:22,479 Speaker 3: The very scale of the bloodshed indicates that they're not 63 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 3: losing their nerve about killing their own citizens, and they're 64 00:04:25,839 --> 00:04:28,360 Speaker 3: not having trouble getting their security forces to kill their 65 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:32,880 Speaker 3: own citizens. Some of the well known moderates within Iranian 66 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:36,720 Speaker 3: life are calling for a crackdown, which means they don't 67 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:41,960 Speaker 3: see any alternative to the regime. The government is still functioning, 68 00:04:42,640 --> 00:04:46,320 Speaker 3: and if anything, the numbers of demonstrators seems to have 69 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 3: eased off a little bit in the last twenty four hours. 70 00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:52,919 Speaker 3: So as usual, if a dictatorship can convince the army 71 00:04:52,960 --> 00:04:56,719 Speaker 3: to kill its citizens in very large numbers, it tends 72 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 3: to hang on to power. 73 00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 1: What's the calculus for Donald Trump? 74 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:02,760 Speaker 3: Now? 75 00:05:02,839 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 1: He almost encouraged the protesters out. He's said that if 76 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:10,360 Speaker 1: they were able to take control of the state's institutions, 77 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 1: that would be a good thing. He's indicated that he 78 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 1: would strike Iran if it killed many of its own people, 79 00:05:16,320 --> 00:05:20,279 Speaker 1: which of course it now has. What does he do now, Well. 80 00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:23,640 Speaker 3: Trump is revealing himself as a neo conservative. I mean, 81 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:29,080 Speaker 3: move over Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Ronald Reagan, Franklin Roosevelt. 82 00:05:29,640 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 3: Only a few weeks ago, Trump's national security strategy said 83 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:35,600 Speaker 3: we no longer have any interest in the internal affairs 84 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 3: of other nations. We don't care how they organize themselves, 85 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 3: meaning we're not worried about human rights. But here he 86 00:05:41,200 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 3: is saying if the Iranian leaders, he says, I'm concerned 87 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:47,760 Speaker 3: about all the death. If the Iranian leaders kill their 88 00:05:47,800 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 3: people in large numbers, we will strike them. Now, there 89 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 3: are a lot of problems with that statement. First of all, 90 00:05:55,440 --> 00:05:57,280 Speaker 3: it's a good thing that Trump is on the side 91 00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:00,880 Speaker 3: of the demonstrators, a very good thing, and that's where 92 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:03,840 Speaker 3: America should always be, on the side of liberty and 93 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 3: democracy and against dictatorship. But it's hard to see how 94 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:16,360 Speaker 3: any a strike from the air can materially aid the demonstrators. 95 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 3: You can't bring the regime down with their strikes, and 96 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:26,679 Speaker 3: the people are being shot by individual soldiers and Islamic 97 00:06:26,760 --> 00:06:31,800 Speaker 3: Revolutionary Guard Corps members and Basiege militia members in the street. Well, 98 00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:35,120 Speaker 3: you can't really deal with that from the air. Trump 99 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:38,720 Speaker 3: may yet decide not to do anything. We're speaking on 100 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:42,440 Speaker 3: Wednesday afternoon, so we don't yet know, and in which 101 00:06:42,480 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 3: case his words were a bit problematic because he's encouraging 102 00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:51,760 Speaker 3: people to risk their lives with an American promise of support. 103 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:54,480 Speaker 3: Now he's not responsible for them risking their lives, because 104 00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:59,039 Speaker 3: these demonstrations have occurred independently of Trump. On the other hand, 105 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 3: there may be military sound reasons for striking Iran's attempts 106 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:08,280 Speaker 3: to reconstitute its missile program. The Iranians are scared of Trump, 107 00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 3: They're scared of Benjaminette Yahoo, they are suffering from sanctions. 108 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 3: Trump is intensifying sanctions. So whether he decides to do 109 00:07:17,000 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 3: a sort of a demonstration strike, a military strike on 110 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 3: a specific target, maybe a strike at some of the leaders, 111 00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:28,000 Speaker 3: although I don't think he would strike the Ayatolla Harmoni. Look, 112 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 3: it's genuinely very unpredictable, but it's hard to see how 113 00:07:31,080 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 3: it materially affects the position of the demonstrators. 114 00:07:38,280 --> 00:07:42,080 Speaker 1: Coming up. Why this uprising started with the most unlikely 115 00:07:42,240 --> 00:08:06,880 Speaker 1: of revolutionaries. You've written very evocatively about the shopkeepers who 116 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 1: were some of the first people out on the street 117 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 1: as part of this unrest. Included in that group were 118 00:08:12,640 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 1: some of the shopkeepers in Tehran's Grand Bizarre What does 119 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 1: it mean that it's shopkeepers who are out on the 120 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:22,120 Speaker 1: streets voicing their rage about this regime. 121 00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 3: It's very dangerous for a government when it loses the 122 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 3: support of shopkeepers, because shopkeepers are non ideological. They're not left, 123 00:08:29,600 --> 00:08:34,200 Speaker 3: they're not right, They're interested in the functioning of their businesses, 124 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 3: and they are if you like, the coal face of 125 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:42,680 Speaker 3: everyday life. If the shopkeepers can't function, that means ordinary people, 126 00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 3: ordinary families can't get bread and milk and eggs and 127 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 3: tomatoes and what have you to just keep normal life functioning. 128 00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:50,560 Speaker 5: Now. 129 00:08:50,679 --> 00:08:56,199 Speaker 3: Iran a very sophisticated culture that inherits the great Persian culture, 130 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:58,800 Speaker 3: and it has great traditions of scholarship. 131 00:08:58,840 --> 00:09:00,640 Speaker 5: It has brilliant film made and so on. 132 00:09:01,040 --> 00:09:05,719 Speaker 3: It has always had a sophisticated urban class which despises 133 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 3: the Muller's regime, but that class could never bring about 134 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 3: political change on its own. 135 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 5: The latest revolt different from the. 136 00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:17,719 Speaker 3: One provoked by the death of that young woman who 137 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:22,199 Speaker 3: didn't wear a hijab with sufficient piety for the Muller's liking. 138 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:28,600 Speaker 3: The latest revolt is based on economic collapse. A lot 139 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:30,760 Speaker 3: of things to learn from that. One is that all 140 00:09:30,760 --> 00:09:33,520 Speaker 3: the folks who told us the American and Israeli strikes 141 00:09:33,520 --> 00:09:36,559 Speaker 3: on Iran would lead to a great surge of patriotism 142 00:09:36,640 --> 00:09:39,440 Speaker 3: in which the people supported their government were just talking 143 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:44,720 Speaker 3: absolute moonshine. The people despise their government, and the government 144 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:47,280 Speaker 3: is not functioning for them in any way at all. 145 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:51,520 Speaker 3: The Islamic Revolution of nineteen seventy nine has delivered the 146 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:57,559 Speaker 3: Iranian people nothing but despare isolation, economic misery, and conflict 147 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 3: with the world's most powerful military, the United States, and 148 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:06,080 Speaker 3: also with Israel. And they've got nothing in return. So 149 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 3: that made it a very dangerous revolt because it mobilized 150 00:10:10,400 --> 00:10:16,120 Speaker 3: people far beyond the urban liberals. It mobilized working class people. 151 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:20,440 Speaker 3: There were strikes, it mobilized workers, It mobilized people in 152 00:10:20,559 --> 00:10:24,439 Speaker 3: villages and on farms, and you felt that that was 153 00:10:24,480 --> 00:10:27,320 Speaker 3: a moment of maximum danger. But the Iranian regime, in 154 00:10:27,360 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 3: its way, is quite sophisticated in knowing how to hang 155 00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:38,199 Speaker 3: on to power. It resembles in many ways in North Koreans. 156 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,760 Speaker 3: North Koreans are the worst regime in the world and 157 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 3: have the worst human rights in the worst economic performance, 158 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:48,600 Speaker 3: but they're extremely sophisticated about staying in power, and the 159 00:10:48,640 --> 00:10:53,120 Speaker 3: Iranian regime has some genuine support on theocratic grounds, so 160 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:54,200 Speaker 3: they're like the Taliban. 161 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:56,480 Speaker 5: They don't want life to be happy and successful. They 162 00:10:56,480 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 5: want it to be miserable. 163 00:10:57,440 --> 00:10:59,440 Speaker 3: They don't want you to enjoy music, they don't want 164 00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:02,679 Speaker 3: women to be equal to men, and so forth. But 165 00:11:02,800 --> 00:11:07,240 Speaker 3: it also has created quite a big and very corrupt 166 00:11:07,760 --> 00:11:11,560 Speaker 3: class who live well while the majority of people live poorly. 167 00:11:11,640 --> 00:11:14,720 Speaker 3: So the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is the most 168 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 3: important military force, they have a much better material standard 169 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:22,240 Speaker 3: of living than the ordinary Iranian. So they would think 170 00:11:22,280 --> 00:11:27,120 Speaker 3: if the current order collapses, they're likely to go down 171 00:11:27,200 --> 00:11:30,560 Speaker 3: the totem polt, perhaps quite radically, so that gives them 172 00:11:30,600 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 3: a big motivation. I mean Putin does something similar. He 173 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:36,200 Speaker 3: always makes sure his bodyguards are very wealthy. 174 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 5: They're very well rewarded for. 175 00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:41,319 Speaker 3: What they do, and that gives them a strong motivation 176 00:11:41,679 --> 00:11:46,679 Speaker 3: to stick with him. And dictatorships don't typically collapse when 177 00:11:46,720 --> 00:11:49,559 Speaker 3: they get more dictatorial. They typically collapse when they start 178 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,560 Speaker 3: to liberalize and they allow some social space for an 179 00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:57,680 Speaker 3: opposition to get organized. Well, the Iranian leadership is not 180 00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:02,840 Speaker 3: going to allow any like that, so I think the outlook, 181 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:07,240 Speaker 3: sad to say, is very bad. On the other hand, 182 00:12:07,960 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 3: they are a bankrupt and hollow regime, and I'm sure 183 00:12:13,520 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 3: the Americans and the Israelis will be trying to entice 184 00:12:17,080 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 3: someone in the Iranian leadership to lead a revolt, but 185 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:24,680 Speaker 3: that seems to be unlikely because it didn't happen at 186 00:12:24,679 --> 00:12:29,800 Speaker 3: this maximum stress moment. So I think we can say, sadly, 187 00:12:30,280 --> 00:12:31,600 Speaker 3: it looks like the bad. 188 00:12:31,400 --> 00:12:32,480 Speaker 5: Guys have survived. 189 00:12:32,520 --> 00:12:34,720 Speaker 3: But on the other hand, they are scared of Trump, 190 00:12:34,720 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 3: they are scared of Netnyahu. 191 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:37,800 Speaker 5: The people hate them. 192 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 3: There are a lot of movable parts in this There 193 00:12:40,320 --> 00:12:43,040 Speaker 3: are ethnic minorities which are armed and which hate the 194 00:12:43,040 --> 00:12:46,400 Speaker 3: central government. So there's a lot of moving parts in 195 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:50,120 Speaker 3: this story. But for the moment, the regime looks to 196 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 3: have held on. You know, you could get some good 197 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 3: things out of this, because every dollar the Iranians spend 198 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:58,439 Speaker 3: on a nuclear program and missiles is a dollar they 199 00:12:58,440 --> 00:13:02,240 Speaker 3: can't spend on food. If they're scared of their own shopkeepers, 200 00:13:02,559 --> 00:13:04,600 Speaker 3: they might want to spend a bit more money on 201 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:08,120 Speaker 3: food and a bit less money on a nuclear weapons program. 202 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,520 Speaker 3: So there are ways that this could get a little 203 00:13:11,559 --> 00:13:15,800 Speaker 3: bit better. But this regime is going to learn one 204 00:13:15,880 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 3: key lesson out of this, which is if you want 205 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:18,800 Speaker 3: to stay in power, you've got to be willing to 206 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 3: kill thousands and thousands of people, and they've always been willing. 207 00:13:21,880 --> 00:13:22,280 Speaker 5: To do that. 208 00:13:22,960 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 1: Greg, you always make me feel better about the world, 209 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:27,840 Speaker 1: and at least in this case, you've made me understand it. 210 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 1: So thank you very much. Greg Sheridan is The Australian's 211 00:13:30,280 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: Foreign editor. 212 00:13:31,360 --> 00:13:32,280 Speaker 5: Thanks so much, Claire. 213 00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:44,880 Speaker 1: Greg Sheridan is The Australian's Foreign editor. You can read 214 00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: all Greg's reporting right now at the Australian dot com 215 00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 1: dot au