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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. The Reserve Bank leaves rates

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Speaker 1: on hold and says it still won't rule out rate hikes.

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Speaker 1: Voting continues in the US election with a late momentum

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Speaker 1: shift to the Democrats, and the longtime boss of Domino's

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Speaker 1: steps down. Plus more on markets and why the Commonwealth

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Speaker 1: Bank wants to be a marketing agency for other companies.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed. Daily business news for people

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Speaker 1: who make their own decisions. It is Wednesday, the sixth

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Speaker 1: of November twenty twenty four. I'm Michael Thompson and good morning,

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Speaker 1: Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning, the Reserve Bank has left

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Speaker 1: interest rates steady and forecast that headline inflation will fall

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Speaker 1: more and stay in the Central Bank's target range until

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Speaker 1: the middle of next year.

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Speaker 2: But that doesn't mean there's a rate cut around the corner.

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Speaker 2: It's the second last meeting, or it was the second

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Speaker 2: last meeting of the year, and of course the twelvemonth

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Speaker 2: anniverse since the last time the Reserve Bank lifted interest rates.

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Speaker 2: The most important commentary from the Central Bank yesterday came

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Speaker 2: around underlying inflation. That's the rate the RBA likes to

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Speaker 2: think about when it is setting interest rates. It remains

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Speaker 2: too high, was how they put it. It won't hit

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Speaker 2: three percent until the middle of next year, and it

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Speaker 2: won't be until until the end of the following year

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Speaker 2: where it's down in that two and a half percent range,

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Speaker 2: in the midpoint of its target range. That's according to

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Speaker 2: Reserve Bank forecasts. Underlying inflation is and I quote again easy,

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Speaker 2: more slowly. The labor market remains tight, and total demand

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Speaker 2: for goods and services still exceeds supply. This concept of

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Speaker 2: aggregate demand and aggregate supply, that's what the Reserve Bank

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Speaker 2: seems to be interested in at the moment. The low

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Speaker 2: headline rate is due to energy rebates seventy five dollars

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Speaker 2: a quarter that will jump back up in twelve months

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Speaker 2: time or so. The less than that when those rebates

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Speaker 2: cut out. At least the board didn't consider hiking interest rates.

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Speaker 2: I suppose we should be happy about that. The Reserve

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Speaker 2: Bank also released its statement on Montree policy. Basically is

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Speaker 2: revised slightly high its economic growth forecast for next year.

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Speaker 2: That's thanks to the stimulus packages out of China recently.

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Speaker 2: Wages growth will slow, unemployment will rise, while inflation and

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Speaker 2: employment are the keys. Reserve Bank talked a bit about

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Speaker 2: the risk to household spending not being as strong as

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Speaker 2: expected and uncertainties around the global economy. They seem to

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Speaker 2: be the main reasons why the bank might think about

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Speaker 2: cutting rates sometime sooner rather than later. But I wouldn't

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Speaker 2: hold your breath for either of those two outcomes.

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Speaker 1: Okay, then, so what does it mean then, Sean, after

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Speaker 1: all of this yesterday, when are we actually likely to

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Speaker 1: see a rate cut? Can you kind of narrow it

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Speaker 1: down at all?

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Speaker 2: You know what the bank didn't do yesterday is lean

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Speaker 2: in towards commentary on rate cuts. We were talking about

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Speaker 2: that earlier in the week. Leaning in the mantra just

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Speaker 2: remain not ruling anything in, not ruling anything out. Michelle

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Speaker 2: Bullock said, there are just some things at the edges

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Speaker 2: that suggest there might be a little bit of upside

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Speaker 2: at risk. That's not what we wanted to hear. Commentators

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Speaker 2: are basically saying now banks are firmly in neutral on rates.

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Speaker 2: Michelle Bullet wouldn't be drawn into the impact of the

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Speaker 2: US elections, saying we'd have to wait and see who wins.

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Speaker 2: Bond markets have tempered their bets just a bit on

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Speaker 2: a rate cut. February's a chance, but it's more likely

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Speaker 2: towards the middle of next year. According to economists, bond

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Speaker 2: investors have priced in about a forty percent chance of

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Speaker 2: a move in February. The Aussie dollar held just under

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Speaker 2: sixty six US cents after the announcement. That sort of

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Speaker 2: supports the theory that rates won't move any time soon.

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Speaker 2: So best bet February at the earliest middle of the year.

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Speaker 2: I was going to say the latest, but first half

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Speaker 2: of next year, That's what I'll say. Michael.

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Speaker 1: I love how even you are kind of hedging your

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Speaker 1: bets a little bit on this one.

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Speaker 2: I've been a middle of the next year person for

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Speaker 2: a while now. But yes, we'll waite and see. I

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Speaker 2: tell you he who does know or who thinks it might

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Speaker 2: be February next year?

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Speaker 1: Is it our guest today?

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Speaker 2: It is our guest today. It is Lucy Ellis, the

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Speaker 2: chief economist from Westpac, former chief economist at the Reserve Bank.

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Speaker 1: Michael, Yeah, which, and I love your interview with Lucy.

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Speaker 1: It comes up after the show because she does have

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Speaker 1: a unique insight into basically what the Reserve Bank means.

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Speaker 1: Because half The challenge is decoding the language, isn't it

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Speaker 1: and she's an expert at it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, she spent time writing the language.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it is a great chatter coming up after the show.

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Speaker 1: Stick around for that one if you want to get

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Speaker 1: an insight into exactly what the Reserve Bank means when

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Speaker 1: they say various things Sean. Moving away from the RBA,

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Speaker 1: voting continues in the US election with what appears to

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Speaker 1: be a last minute swing to Karmala Harris and the Democrats.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump is ahead, though according to the bookie. So

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't say there's a favorite at this point, but

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Speaker 2: that last bit of momentum seemed to swing towards Krmlah Harris.

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Speaker 2: More than seventy two million postal votes or early voters,

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Speaker 2: had recorded their decision by the beginning of the polls

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Speaker 2: opening last night Australian time. More women than men had

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Speaker 2: actually voted earlier. Carmla Harris's final event was in Philadelphia.

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Speaker 2: She well, she had a couple events in Pennsylvania, one

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Speaker 2: with Katy Perry, another with Aprah Winfrey. Lady Gaga was there.

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Speaker 2: The stars had really come out to support Carmla Harris.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump was almost sentimental about his last ever rallies.

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Speaker 2: He said he's been doing it for nine years and

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Speaker 2: this was it. Podcast Joe Rogan, he came out and

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Speaker 2: said he'd be voting for Donald Trump. I suppose Trump's

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Speaker 2: big line yesterday was that he would liberate the US

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Speaker 2: from what he called an occupation. He's going out swinging

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Speaker 2: whether he wins or loses. Pennsylvania where is where they

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Speaker 2: both were the crucial swing state nineteen Electoral College votes.

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Speaker 2: Unlikely to know a result for a few days yet, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It is a massive, massive day. Sean will take a

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Speaker 1: quick break back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news Sean. The curse of the founder

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Speaker 1: CEO has struck again, with Domino's longtime boss Don May

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Speaker 1: stepping down after twenty two years running the company.

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Speaker 2: Yes, he's been with the company forty years. He was

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Speaker 2: CEO since it listed in May two thousand and five,

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Speaker 2: making it the first pizza company to hit the boss.

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Speaker 2: He actually started as a pizza delivery driver in Redcliffe

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Speaker 2: up in Queensland. Been a rough couple of years, though.

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Speaker 2: The share price is down nearly fifty percent this year,

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Speaker 2: including six percent yesterday, since the end of Covid. It's

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Speaker 2: gone from about one hundred and sixty dollars dollars a

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Speaker 2: share to just over thirty dollars a share. Same store

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Speaker 2: sales in the first seventeen weeks of this year were

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Speaker 2: down very much on the back of their French and

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Speaker 2: Japanese stores. They're just not closing. They're not performing very

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Speaker 2: well and as a result they're going to close about

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Speaker 2: ten percent of stores. The Australian business is actually doing okay.

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Speaker 2: The chair of Domino's is a guy called Jack Cowan,

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Speaker 2: a billionaire. He holds twenty six percent steak. The new

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Speaker 2: CEO Mark Van Dyck from the Compass Group in the UK.

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Speaker 2: Previously he was with Coca Cola. John Mays. The third

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Speaker 2: CEO founder to go in the past ten days. Sir

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Speaker 2: Richard White from Weiss Tech Global was the first. Christ

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Speaker 2: Well he went, though he's coming back as a consultant.

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Speaker 2: Chris Ellison from Mineral Resources is going, though not Friday

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Speaker 2: months don May. However, if you count him as a

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Speaker 2: CEO founder, at least in terms of a listed company,

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Speaker 2: he'll he'll be leaving the business shortly.

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Speaker 1: Almost seems to have been unfair to group him in

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Speaker 1: with the others, doesn't he there's been a governance issues

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Speaker 1: or anything has there for as far as Domino's goes.

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Speaker 1: Sorry don apologies. There's an election in the wind in Australia, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Is that poetic? Really almost? There's nothing poetic about an

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Speaker 1: election campaign gets ugly very quickly. The Prime Minister Anthony

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Speaker 1: Albanezi is telling colleagues he's confident of winning an increased majority.

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Speaker 1: So not just winning, but winning an increased majority at

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Speaker 1: the next election, which is of course due by May.

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Speaker 2: Yes, notwithstanding polling suggesting a minority government for the ALP

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Speaker 2: after that election.

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Speaker 1: That's confidence. That's confidence, y it is, it is absolutely.

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Speaker 2: It's the third last parliamentary sitting week of the year.

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Speaker 2: The Prime Minister told Labor MPs that they need to

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Speaker 2: set out the government's next agenda for the next term

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Speaker 2: in parliament. There will be key policies an ounsday for

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Speaker 2: the next few months, plenty on education this week, of course,

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Speaker 2: the big one being wiping out twenty percent of student debts. Yesterday,

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Speaker 2: the Prime Minister said he'd set up a commission to

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Speaker 2: set the price of university courses, a bit of a

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Speaker 2: backflip from what the Morrison government does, but we can

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Speaker 2: expect quite a bit of campaigning over the next few months.

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Speaker 1: Oppositionally to Peter Dutton has told his colleagues to steer

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Speaker 1: clear of the debate over abortion, saying that it costs

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Speaker 1: the Queensland LMP votes in metropolitan seats. Really in the

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Speaker 1: recent state election, that's try.

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Speaker 2: In the final weeks of the election campaign in the

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Speaker 2: Sunshine State, LNP votes in the cities fell according to

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Speaker 2: polls that of course, coincided with the debate over abortion.

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Speaker 2: The fear for Peter Dutton is that the ALP will

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Speaker 2: make it a topic in the run up to the

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Speaker 2: federal election. Mister Dutton said he believes Prime Minister Anthony

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Speaker 2: Albernezi is in election mode. He said that seats could

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Speaker 2: be decided on local issues and hotspots, hence he doesn't

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Speaker 2: really want to be drawn into the abortion debate.

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Speaker 1: And one last one from Politics Sean the travel scandal

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Speaker 1: is not going away, with a growing number of MPs

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Speaker 1: saying that flight upgrades should be banned.

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Speaker 2: Yes so Independence Allegre Spender and Helen Haynes said they

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Speaker 2: will cancel their quotas Chairman's Lounge and Virgin Vip memberships

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Speaker 2: as well. So it's not just the flight up grades,

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Speaker 2: it's also these memberships to these very flash lounges. Teel

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Speaker 2: Independent Menique Ryan, she's already given up her chairman's lounge.

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Speaker 2: She basically put the blame on which you didn't want

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Speaker 2: to be in the chairman's lunge because of the insidious

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Speaker 2: activities of lobbyists. There you go.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to paint you into a corner on

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Speaker 1: this one, but I'm looking forward to you teeing off

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Speaker 1: on this story and the Fear and Greed newsletter today.

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Speaker 2: You're delighted to do so.

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Speaker 1: Oh lovely excellent. If you haven't subscribed already, head along

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Speaker 1: to Fearangreed dot com dot au pop your email addressing.

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Speaker 1: It's entirely free and you get to hear Sean's unadulterated

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Speaker 1: innermost thoughts on all of these stories. It's worth it

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Speaker 1: just for that. It gets a bit dirty. It doesn't. Actually,

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Speaker 1: I don't know why I've said that really, anyway, it

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Speaker 1: might today. How did local markets perform yesterday? Help me

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Speaker 1: out here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, the SMPA six two hundred finished down zero

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Speaker 2: point four percent to eight thousand, one hundred and thirty

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Speaker 2: two points. The utilities and financials were among the worst performers,

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Speaker 2: in part reflecting the interest rate decision and commentary west

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Speaker 2: Pack and Macquarie. We're both off more than one and

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Speaker 2: a half percent. In fact, seventeen of the top twenty

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Speaker 2: stocks were lower a couple of interesting ones. The share

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Speaker 2: price of Mineral Resources bounced. That's a that ten percent

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Speaker 2: drop on Monday, up four percent yesterday. Lifestyle Communities rose

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Speaker 2: after HMC capital took a near three percent stake in

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Speaker 2: the least communities operator. Lifestyle was up seven percent, best

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Speaker 2: of the top two hundred yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Now mentioned this at the top of the show. Commonwealth

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Speaker 1: Bank will build a media that will compete with broadcasters

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Speaker 1: and billboards to sell space to advertisers on its branches

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Speaker 1: atm screens and mobile apps.

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Speaker 2: This is this is new, yes, kind of new, well,

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Speaker 2: certainly new for a bank. They're calling it Combank Connect.

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Speaker 2: It's part of a marketing push in which they've already

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Speaker 2: signed up brands quantus, Ko, Sports and Meyer where they'll

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Speaker 2: run their ads within the Combank's ecosystem. They're going to

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Speaker 2: build two thousand digital screens inside and outside Comwealth Banks

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Speaker 2: six hundred branches across the country. According to the finn Review,

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Speaker 2: They're not going to make money from it, they said,

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Speaker 2: but they will use the money to pay for their

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Speaker 2: own advertiser. So I think they are making money from it.

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Speaker 2: But anyway, owned meet is a big thing. Owned meet

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Speaker 2: is about companies selling access to their customers. It's worth

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Speaker 2: an estimated four point three billion dollars. What Commonwealth Bank

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Speaker 2: wants to do is actually used things like its app

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Speaker 2: and its website to potentially promote some of these other

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Speaker 2: players like Maya and Ka. All these Coals and Chemist

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Speaker 2: Warehouse already do it. They chart suppliers for prominent spots

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Speaker 2: on install screens, radio stations, magazine, social media, and common

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Speaker 2: Wealth Bank is joining the party.

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Speaker 1: Turning to international news now, and markets are still really

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Speaker 1: in a holding pattern globally and of an outcome from

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Speaker 1: the US election. God, that's optimistic of me, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: Yet.

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Speaker 1: I'm already talking about an outcome like I'm impatient for

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Speaker 1: a result. Though, the apparent late swing towards Karmala Harris's

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Speaker 1: has put some pressure on Wall Street.

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Speaker 2: The so called Trump trade, which pushed up equities on

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Speaker 2: Wall Street. The US dollar bitcoined bond yells that's sort

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Speaker 2: of an unwound, A touch gold steady that's still trading

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Speaker 2: around record high levels. Everyone really is waiting to see

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Speaker 2: the outcome of the election. Oil's higher, though after opeq

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Speaker 2: plus agreed to push back its December production increase in

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Speaker 2: Iran outlined a possible response to Israel's at recent attacks.

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Speaker 2: It's back above seventy five years dollars in barrel worth

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Speaker 2: a mentioned in video. For a while, it was again

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Speaker 2: the biggest company on Wall Street, at least for a

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Speaker 2: few hours now it was worth about three point three

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Speaker 2: eight trillion US dollars. It jumped after an announcement that

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Speaker 2: it would replace Intel on the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

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Speaker 2: Now the Dow Jones Industrial Average has thirty stocks on

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Speaker 2: it only, and they're the big thirty stocks on Wall Street.

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Speaker 2: Intel is out in videos in people just back the

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Speaker 2: down Jones Industrial average. That gave in Vidia some help

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Speaker 2: there pushed Apple to number two just below video, though

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Speaker 2: in after hours trading that reversed again. But yeah, briefly

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Speaker 2: it was there.

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Speaker 1: Briefly. God, you would have to celebrate quickly, wouldn't you

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Speaker 1: if you're out like you'd barely even have time to

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Speaker 1: do a LinkedIn post about it. It's already passed. How

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Speaker 1: about this one, Sean, This is really disturbing. European and

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Speaker 1: US intelligence officials believe Russia is behind a plan there

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Speaker 1: would ultimately place essentially explosive devices on planes to North

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Speaker 1: America through air cargo shipments. This is according to a

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Speaker 1: report on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: Authorities are taking the incidents seriously and intelligence agencies are

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Speaker 2: expecting Moscow to try and stage similar acts of sabotage

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Speaker 2: in the future. And I'm named source is quoted as saying.

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Speaker 2: Poland's National Prosecutor's office said it's investigating the alleged involvement

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Speaker 2: of a foreign intelligence service in sabotage activities on the

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Speaker 2: territory of Poland and other European Union member states. The

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Speaker 2: Wall Street General reported earlier in the week on Moscow's

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Speaker 2: alleged goal of ultimately targeting the US. Now, as part

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Speaker 2: of an inquiry, authorities have arristed four people linked to

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Speaker 2: a sabotage group whose activities include were included sending parcels

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Speaker 2: containing camouflaged explosives and dangerous materials via courier companies to

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Speaker 2: countries in the EU and the UK. The parcels big

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Speaker 2: not a detonate during land or a transport A very

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Speaker 2: worrying story, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, Up next Sean is the Fear and Greed Daily

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Speaker 1: Interview with Lucy Ellis, chief economist at Westpac Wellworth. A

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Speaker 1: listen it is coming up in the Fear and Greed

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Speaker 1: playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com

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Speaker 1: dot au.

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Speaker 2: Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Wednesday, the sixth of November twenty twenty four. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and please join us online

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Speaker 1: on LinkedIn, Instagram, ex TikTok and Facebook. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and that was Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 2: Have a great day.