1 00:00:05,720 --> 00:00:08,479 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Fear and Greed Business Interview. I'm Sean Alma. 2 00:00:08,680 --> 00:00:14,200 Speaker 1: After months of furious campaigning, the US election has finally arrived. Tonight, 3 00:00:14,320 --> 00:00:17,240 Speaker 1: US time voters go to the polls to choose between 4 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:21,560 Speaker 1: returning former President Donald Trump or making Vice President Carla 5 00:00:21,600 --> 00:00:24,640 Speaker 1: Harris the first female leader of the United States. It's 6 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:27,520 Speaker 1: been an extraordinary campaign when you consider that it again 7 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: with Trump taking on Joe Biden. Since then, we've had 8 00:00:30,560 --> 00:00:34,720 Speaker 1: a president withdrawing from their campaign, assassination attempts, allegations about 9 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:38,520 Speaker 1: people eating dogs, photo whops in McDonald's restaurants and garbage trucks, 10 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 1: appearances on sixty Minutes Saturday Night Live and Joe Rogan's podcast, 11 00:00:43,040 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 1: and countless polls showing which pay people are going to vote. 12 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:48,400 Speaker 1: And here we are at the end of the campaign, 13 00:00:48,920 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 1: with most of those polls too close to call. Bruce 14 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 1: Walpy is a Senior Fellow Nonresident at the United States 15 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:58,280 Speaker 1: Studies Center. He has worked with the Democrats in Congress 16 00:00:58,360 --> 00:01:01,959 Speaker 1: during President Barack Obama's first term. Last year, he published 17 00:01:02,000 --> 00:01:05,320 Speaker 1: Trump's Australia, which looks at the potential for Donald Trump 18 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:08,639 Speaker 1: to return to the presidency and what that means for Australia. Bruce, 19 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:10,160 Speaker 1: welcome back to Fear and Greed. 20 00:01:10,520 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 2: Hey, last episode before the election returns. Come in. Thank 21 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:14,399 Speaker 2: you so much. Sean. 22 00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, how would you characterize this campaign? 23 00:01:18,560 --> 00:01:21,080 Speaker 2: Well, it's look, it's just deadlocked. You know, you've seen 24 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:23,120 Speaker 2: pole after pool. I've had a dozen people come up 25 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:24,680 Speaker 2: to me in the past month saying I get up 26 00:01:24,680 --> 00:01:26,959 Speaker 2: at five point thirty and every morning to check the polls. 27 00:01:27,040 --> 00:01:29,840 Speaker 2: I mean, this is how riveted and wrapped Australians are. 28 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 2: There's no clear none of neither of them have a 29 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:35,920 Speaker 2: clear lead. At the national level. They're tied forty nine, 30 00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 2: forty eight, forty seven, forty seven in the pop But 31 00:01:38,520 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 2: that isn't what as everyone knows, that isn't what elects 32 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:43,560 Speaker 2: the president is the electoral college. But even in those 33 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 2: seven states that are seen to be up for grabs, 34 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 2: it's it's tie after tie after tie, and not even 35 00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:52,720 Speaker 2: a difference in regional like the Northern industrial states Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, 36 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:57,080 Speaker 2: Michigan are kind of mirror or mirrored by Georgia, North Carolina, 37 00:01:57,200 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 2: Arizona and Nevada in just being even so that there 38 00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 2: is no clear front runner. It turnout is going to 39 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:08,799 Speaker 2: be important I do sense that Harris is closing quite strongly, 40 00:02:08,880 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 2: and I sense a real confidence in their camp that 41 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:12,959 Speaker 2: she's going to win this thing. 42 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: Bruce, I don't mean to be ignorant, because I am 43 00:02:16,040 --> 00:02:19,160 Speaker 1: not assistant of the US, But for many of us 44 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:22,919 Speaker 1: that are watching this election, we just wonder, well, as 45 00:02:23,160 --> 00:02:25,760 Speaker 1: Michelle Obama, I think it was put it, why is 46 00:02:25,800 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 1: this even a race? Why are so many Americans happy 47 00:02:31,400 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 1: to put their trust in a president who has Donald 48 00:02:36,040 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 1: Trump's attributes. I think for many of us that's kind 49 00:02:39,320 --> 00:02:42,120 Speaker 1: of astounding. And I'm not even being pro Kamala Harris here. 50 00:02:42,200 --> 00:02:45,440 Speaker 1: It's more just to have someone like that to watch 51 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 1: it from afar. We don't get it. 52 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:50,840 Speaker 2: I think there are two threads here. The Kamala Harris 53 00:02:50,840 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 2: thread is, just as you outlined, it's time to turn 54 00:02:53,760 --> 00:02:56,359 Speaker 2: the page on him. We've had he's been with us 55 00:02:56,360 --> 00:02:58,760 Speaker 2: for eight years. We don't want him in our future. 56 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:03,120 Speaker 2: He's old, he's unhinged. He's been called a fascist by 57 00:03:03,520 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 2: two people who work with him really closely, as chief 58 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 2: of Staff and the former Chamber of the Joint Chiefs 59 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:11,160 Speaker 2: of Staff. And she's making this referendum on Trump. But 60 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,320 Speaker 2: you know, as you know, though the number one issue 61 00:03:14,320 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 2: in people's minds generally when you have a national election 62 00:03:16,720 --> 00:03:18,520 Speaker 2: is how am I doing economically? And what is the 63 00:03:18,560 --> 00:03:22,360 Speaker 2: future outlook? And the lived experience of Americans is not 64 00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 2: good and the country is tense and unhappy. Between sixty 65 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 2: and seventy percent say the country is in the wrong direction. 66 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 2: That's an indication of change. But since Biden was elected, 67 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 2: the basket of goods that people go to get every 68 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:37,360 Speaker 2: week in, week out, plus patrol plus insurance is up 69 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:41,480 Speaker 2: ten to forty percent. And if this is a referendum 70 00:03:41,480 --> 00:03:45,000 Speaker 2: on the election, on the economy and how I'm doing 71 00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 2: and how my family is doing and economic security issues, 72 00:03:49,160 --> 00:03:52,760 Speaker 2: that is a big driver for Trump. But what he 73 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 2: also has is we've talked before, he has a base 74 00:03:55,600 --> 00:03:58,240 Speaker 2: of like forty five percent of the nation. It's stuck 75 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 2: with him over eight years, who feel that they want 76 00:04:01,120 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 2: the trade wars to protect the jobs. They want America 77 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:08,320 Speaker 2: disengage from the world. They want America to be great again, 78 00:04:08,360 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 2: and they want protection. They don't want to be flooded 79 00:04:11,200 --> 00:04:14,200 Speaker 2: with immigrants and things that they bring the other So 80 00:04:14,400 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 2: those two things are really an economic impetus plus these 81 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:23,599 Speaker 2: cultural value issues that are very powerful drivers immigration is 82 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 2: so big in Australia, it has been for over twenty 83 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:28,720 Speaker 2: years since we know the potency of them. Trump puts 84 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 2: them together and that's why it's so competitive. 85 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 1: What about the campaigns? Incredible period that light well since 86 00:04:35,160 --> 00:04:39,440 Speaker 1: July when Kamala Harris became the nominee. Have they been 87 00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 1: deserving or have they been up to the standard that 88 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:49,240 Speaker 1: a campaign should be? Have the American people been served 89 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 1: by these campaigns? 90 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 2: I think Trump has faltered over the past month. I 91 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:58,120 Speaker 2: think his campaign rallies have become a kind of a difficult, 92 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 2: hysterical and so ways just the things that comes out 93 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,440 Speaker 2: of his mouth, but his fans come. I mean, it 94 00:05:04,520 --> 00:05:07,840 Speaker 2: is a movement and he is the leader of the movement. 95 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:12,000 Speaker 2: I think Harris because of the circumstances, coming into it 96 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 2: so late, that the incumbent president standing aside that has 97 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:18,680 Speaker 2: not happened before, this close to an election in American history, 98 00:05:19,279 --> 00:05:23,080 Speaker 2: with no opposition, the party uniting him, endorsing her potential 99 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:26,680 Speaker 2: competitors also getting behind her. Sort of an immaculate conception 100 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:31,880 Speaker 2: of a presidential nominee. She entered the race with optimism 101 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 2: in the politics of joy, but she's ending the race 102 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 2: with really a very strong case as to why we 103 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:41,160 Speaker 2: have to go forward in her direction and not go 104 00:05:41,279 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 2: backwards with Trump and all of his grievances and everything 105 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:48,120 Speaker 2: that he's inflicted on the contrary, and I think she's 106 00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 2: made steady progress and I think she continues to make 107 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:53,279 Speaker 2: progress in these crucial last days. 108 00:05:53,720 --> 00:05:55,479 Speaker 1: Stay with me, Bruce, we'll be back in a minute. 109 00:06:02,760 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 1: I'm speaking to Bruce Welby from the United States Studies Center. Okay, 110 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:11,159 Speaker 1: so within twelve hours a side the polls will start 111 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:14,880 Speaker 1: opening in the US. What can we expect? How long 112 00:06:14,920 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 1: do you think it will be before we can find 113 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:21,360 Speaker 1: a winner? And I'm guessing that Trump will won't concede 114 00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:24,359 Speaker 1: no matter what Harris may. How long think will it be? 115 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:28,640 Speaker 2: I think Trump will actually claim victory early on election night, 116 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 2: just because in order to establish a rebuttable presumption I 117 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 2: won and they're trying to steal it from me and 118 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:37,680 Speaker 2: it's all rigged and so forth. In twenty twenty, it 119 00:06:37,720 --> 00:06:40,679 Speaker 2: took until the weekend after the election for a final 120 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,680 Speaker 2: result to come in, as the counting proceeded. And the 121 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:46,160 Speaker 2: United States doesn't have Anthony Green, but it does have 122 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 2: the Associated Press, and the Associated Press is the agency 123 00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:53,200 Speaker 2: of record to make these make the final calls, and 124 00:06:53,279 --> 00:06:56,720 Speaker 2: people understand that there are those states to watch as 125 00:06:56,800 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 2: to what the trend is as election as counting comes 126 00:06:59,640 --> 00:07:04,160 Speaker 2: in tonight tomorrow, and I would look at Pennsylvania, although 127 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:06,359 Speaker 2: it could be a little bit slower, but Georgia and 128 00:07:06,360 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 2: North Carolina, those are two states that kind of edge 129 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 2: towards Trump. They're in the South. Georgia has gone back 130 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 2: and forth, North Carolina has voted relatively reliably for Trump. 131 00:07:17,040 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 2: If Harris just picks up those states, she's going to 132 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 2: win this election. And so I think that'll be an 133 00:07:21,640 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 2: early sign as to where it is. And then the 134 00:07:24,160 --> 00:07:26,360 Speaker 2: issue is, even if Trump is saying I want you 135 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:30,000 Speaker 2: know it's all rigged, the issue is as the reality 136 00:07:30,160 --> 00:07:33,480 Speaker 2: of a Harris victory sinks in, if indeed that unfolds, 137 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,440 Speaker 2: where what do other Republicans star are saying. Are they 138 00:07:36,440 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 2: going to fight Trump's fight all over again or are 139 00:07:38,560 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 2: they going to say we just got to get on 140 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 2: with it and the Republicans will do well. I believe 141 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 2: they will take the Senate. So I think all those 142 00:07:46,440 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 2: things come to play. But we could have a pretty 143 00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 2: early indication on election night. 144 00:07:50,640 --> 00:07:53,680 Speaker 1: So you mentioned a couple of states in North Carolina 145 00:07:53,800 --> 00:07:57,520 Speaker 1: and Georgia. Pennsylvania is another big one. There's interesting polling 146 00:07:57,520 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 1: out of Iowa, though it may be an outlier, that 147 00:08:00,440 --> 00:08:04,720 Speaker 1: kind of suggested that it was more Democrat leaning than expected. 148 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 1: But what are the other I mean, that's another site. 149 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:08,680 Speaker 1: We need to look at what else? Who else? Well? 150 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:11,320 Speaker 2: That actually what Iowa picked up, and then what other 151 00:08:11,360 --> 00:08:15,040 Speaker 2: people are just reporting. Harris has really mobilized women on 152 00:08:15,080 --> 00:08:18,720 Speaker 2: the issue of reproductive health rights, and more than half 153 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 2: the electorate fifty two percent is women and will be women. 154 00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:26,320 Speaker 2: And it's an electric issue and it has it is 155 00:08:26,360 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 2: responsible for people were predicting two years ago the Republicans 156 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:32,840 Speaker 2: would do really well in the midterm elections. They didn't, 157 00:08:33,200 --> 00:08:35,440 Speaker 2: and it was it was driven by this issue of 158 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:39,200 Speaker 2: abortion rights in the aftermath of the repeal of Roe v. Wade. 159 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 2: And they've also seen I've just seen the campaign has 160 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 2: makes delphic statements as to what's going on. And so 161 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 2: it's not to be too braggart about it. Young people 162 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 2: apparently really are voting to so these constituencies that will 163 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 2: that Biden had and she wants to in twenty twenty. 164 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 2: She's rebuilt hoilding that coalition and maybe even exceeding it. 165 00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:05,920 Speaker 2: And if that is absolutely the case, she will be 166 00:09:05,920 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 2: in a strong position. 167 00:09:07,520 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: So let's tay we get a result within a week. 168 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,959 Speaker 1: How long do you think it'll take before things start 169 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 1: to happen. Well, I suppose the president doesn't take the 170 00:09:16,200 --> 00:09:19,360 Speaker 1: job until January sixth, so that's probably quite a stupid question. 171 00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:23,280 Speaker 2: But like, no, the question is really the margin. I mean, 172 00:09:23,400 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 2: the question is when does the legitimacy if the results 173 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 2: sink in right or when are we faced with chaos, 174 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,559 Speaker 2: possible violence and all sorts of things. I think the 175 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 2: degree of instability is to relect. It is related to 176 00:09:35,800 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 2: the degree of the margin. So the greater the margin, 177 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:41,960 Speaker 2: the less instability. And so we'll just have to see 178 00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:44,439 Speaker 2: how close it is. But you know, the past two 179 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 2: elections have been decided by a few thousand votes in 180 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 2: a very small number of states, and that really puts 181 00:09:50,360 --> 00:09:53,560 Speaker 2: everything on edge. That could well happen again. A lot 182 00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:55,760 Speaker 2: of people are expecting it. We'll just have to watch 183 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 2: it unfold. 184 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:58,679 Speaker 1: Bruce, thank you for talking to fearing greed. 185 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:01,520 Speaker 2: A less fear less greed after election night up. 186 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 1: Predict Let's hope. So let's hope. So those Bruce Wolbi, 187 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 1: Senior Fellow Nonresident at the United States Studies Center. This 188 00:10:09,240 --> 00:10:11,680 Speaker 1: is the Fear and Greed Business Interview. Join us every 189 00:10:11,679 --> 00:10:13,880 Speaker 1: morning for the full episode of Fear and Greed business 190 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:16,720 Speaker 1: news for people who make their own decisions. I'm Sean Elmer. 191 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 1: Enjoy your day.