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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and Greed business news you can use today.

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Speaker 1: A rate hike next week looks increasingly likely after the

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Speaker 1: Reserve Bank Deputy governor said failing to raise rates could

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Speaker 1: be a problem for the economy. Australia shuts down diplomatic

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Speaker 1: missions in the Middle East as bombing in the region escalates,

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Speaker 1: and Amazon pushes robo taxis without steering wheels, an accelerator

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Speaker 1: or a break. Plus, Matt Canavan elected to lead the Nationals,

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Speaker 1: and the federal government spends two hundred million dollars to

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Speaker 1: support a local data center player. It is Thursday, the

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Speaker 1: twelfth of March twenty twenty six. I'm Michael Thompson and

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Speaker 1: good morning, Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: It is definitely Thursday, Michael, definitely Thursday.

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Speaker 1: Mat it the whole way through the intro, and that'll

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Speaker 1: stumble on the day of the week Sean. Anyway, he

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Speaker 1: is hoping things get a little better as we go

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Speaker 1: through the main story this morning, Sean. Two of the

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Speaker 1: big four banks now expecting interest rates to rise next week,

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Speaker 1: while professional investors are pushing up bond yields, which reflects

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Speaker 1: rate expectations. Of course, we've talked about that a lot lately.

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Speaker 1: They pushed that to the highest level in more than

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Speaker 1: a decade. So National Australian Bank, on Westpac, the two

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Speaker 1: big four banks that we're talking about here, They expect

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Speaker 1: to lift in the official cash rate both next week

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Speaker 1: and then in May as well, taking it back to

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Speaker 1: four point three five percent, equal to its highest level

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Speaker 1: in thirteen years. That would of course feed through to

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Speaker 1: mortgage rates and amounts charged on business loans and credit

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Speaker 1: cards and.

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Speaker 2: On deposits to you'd hope. The shift on rates came

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Speaker 2: after Reserve Bank Deputy Governor Andrew Howser said it would

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Speaker 2: be bad for everyone if the Central Bank didn't act decisively.

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Speaker 2: Bond markets are now pricing in a four and five

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Speaker 2: chance of a rate height next week. Before houses comments,

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Speaker 2: it was about less than fifty percent chance was baked in.

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Speaker 2: Three year bond yields have hit four point four to

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Speaker 2: nine percent, which suggests investors think that's the average of

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Speaker 2: the cash rate over the next three years. Speaking on

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Speaker 2: the Conversations podcast, How's I said inflation was now expected

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Speaker 2: to rise above the Reserve Bank's four point two percent

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Speaker 2: forecast for June. If that's the case, then the Central

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Speaker 2: Bank is likely to take action to not only slow

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Speaker 2: inflation but also restrict inflation expectations now.

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Speaker 1: Houser also noted that with oil trading at elevated levels,

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Speaker 1: the highest actually since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, and the RBA doesn't want to repeat

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Speaker 1: of the twenty twenty two to twenty twenty three scenario

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Speaker 1: when the cash rate went from zero point one percent

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Speaker 1: to four point three five percent, it was the fastest

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Speaker 1: pace of increase ever from the central Bank. He went

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Speaker 1: on to say, failing to raise rates to the level

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Speaker 1: they need to be and allowing inflation to get out

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Speaker 1: of control is a clear problem. You've talked about this before,

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Speaker 1: haven't you shorn about the fact that Reserve Bank officials

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Speaker 1: ahead of a meeting, you pay very close attention to

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Speaker 1: what's being said because often that they don't like to

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Speaker 1: surprise people.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a little bit about that. The quote again was

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Speaker 2: failing to raise rates to the level they need to

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Speaker 2: be and allowing inflation to get out of control is

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Speaker 2: a clear problem. You don't even have to read between

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Speaker 2: the lines on that one. His comments were definitely hawkish.

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Speaker 2: The Reserve Bank clearly wants to stamp on any further

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Speaker 2: outbreak of inflation, and as National Australian Bank Chief economist

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Speaker 2: Sally Old put it, senior Reserve Bank officials were inclined

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Speaker 2: to view the Iranian conflict as an inflationary shock. That

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Speaker 2: means the higher price of oil is more than temporary,

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Speaker 2: or its impact is more than temporary, and therefore that

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Speaker 2: has economic and inflationary effects and the Reserve Bank needs

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Speaker 2: to do something about that.

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Speaker 1: Okay, now you mentioned the Iranian conflicts. The Australian diplomatic

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Speaker 1: missions in Tel Aviv, in Abu Dhabi and in Dubai

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Speaker 1: have been shut down due to threats posed by drone

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Speaker 1: attacks and other missiles. Foreign Minister Pennywong said the government's

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Speaker 1: number one priority is to keep Australian safe.

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Speaker 2: Meanwhile, Hanmer Fairs Minister Tony Burke said one person from

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Speaker 2: the Iranian women's soccer squad that had sought asylum changed

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Speaker 2: her mind yesterday. Now, initially five members of the squad

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Speaker 2: sought asylum, then another two asked if they could also

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Speaker 2: seek asylum. That took the number to seven, but Burke

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Speaker 2: said one member wanted to head home. That's meant the

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Speaker 2: remaining six have had to relocate because their address had

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Speaker 2: been given to the Iranian embassy. So six of those

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Speaker 2: of that Iranian soccer team or the squad, at least

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Speaker 2: because they weren't all players have asked for visa to

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Speaker 2: stay in Australia.

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Speaker 1: Now, Tehran has experienced some of the war's heaviest air strikes, yes,

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Speaker 1: with electricity cut in many neighborhoods. Sirens also sounded in

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Speaker 1: Tel Aviv in Israel after Iranian missiles were detected.

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Speaker 2: The US city had had destroyed sixteen mine laying boats

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Speaker 2: near the Strait of Homuz, which should damage Iran's seapower.

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Speaker 2: You think it would drone have strike a US diplomatic

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Speaker 2: for Scil City in Iraq. Pro te Iran militias are

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Speaker 2: suspected of being behind that strike. But overall, what's happening.

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Speaker 2: It's escalating not just within Iran but within the countries

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Speaker 2: around it.

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Speaker 1: Okay, let's look at what it's doing to financial market Sean,

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Speaker 1: because the Middle East conflict and surging oil and gas

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Speaker 1: prices has certainly supported the Australian dollar, which yesterday was

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Speaker 1: heading towards seventy two US sins and its highest level

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Speaker 1: as well. In thirty five years against the yen. Also,

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Speaker 1: I suppose helping the Aussie dollar of those expectations of

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Speaker 1: higher interest rates. As a major energy exporter mostly LNG

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Speaker 1: and coal as well, the local currency is in high

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Speaker 1: demand right now. Coal and gas prices have surged in

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Speaker 1: recent days. Oil also jumped, but was back below ninety

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Speaker 1: US dollars a barrel yesterday after the Wall Street Journal

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Speaker 1: reported that the International Energy Agency had proposed the biggest

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Speaker 1: ever release of oil reserves.

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Speaker 2: So that fall in oil prices on the back of

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Speaker 2: that report from the Wall Street Journal helped equity markets,

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Speaker 2: with the SMPA six two hundred finishing up a little

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Speaker 2: over half percent yesterday to eighty seven hundred and forty

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Speaker 2: four points worth. A mentioned gold miner are a Bander

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Speaker 2: best in the day upgrade at its projected output from

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Speaker 2: one of its minds. Share price jumped twenty one percent,

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Speaker 2: not bad. Otherwise, the rare eerst companies did best, while

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Speaker 2: some of the financials underperformed. The FinTechs underperformed yesterday. Among

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Speaker 2: the large caps, the big miners led the way. Fortescu

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Speaker 2: Medals Group was up four percent BHP about one and

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Speaker 2: a half per cent I and Zed was the best

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Speaker 2: of the banks, Goodman, c z Ellen, Telstra were all underperformers.

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Speaker 1: Okay, plenty still to come. We'll be back in a

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Speaker 1: moment with the rest of the day's business news. Sean

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Speaker 1: one time Maverick MP Matt Canavan has been elected leader

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Speaker 1: of the Federal National Party, immediately, calling for more Australian farming,

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Speaker 1: more Australian manufacturing and more Australian jobs.

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Speaker 2: As pretty much the Canavan blue print. He said, we

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Speaker 2: need to go hyper Australian for our country. We need

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Speaker 2: more Australian babies. Let me continue, Michael. He wants more

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Speaker 2: Oussie humor, more Aussi jokes, as well as more barbecues

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Speaker 2: fueled by fossil fuels. Now remember Canavan led the push

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Speaker 2: inside the Nationals to dump its support from the zero

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Speaker 2: emissions He's very pro cole. Canavan won the ballot of

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Speaker 2: ad National MPs. He'll replace David little Proud, who quit

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Speaker 2: the top job on Tuesday. At one point it was

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Speaker 2: rumored that Canavan might actually join Barnaby Joyce the tour

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Speaker 2: mates at One Nation, but yesterday he said he'd be

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Speaker 2: leading the fight against labor one Nation and the turns.

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Speaker 2: In fact, he said he'll target One Nation and its

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Speaker 2: leader Pauline Hansen over the party's lack of substance, and

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Speaker 2: it's pontchon. So here we say, to grow division in society.

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Speaker 1: Yes, in an interesting position now, a very substantially changed

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Speaker 1: coalition when you think about how far we've gone now

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Speaker 1: from Susan Lee and David Little Proud now to Angus

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Speaker 1: Taylor and Matt Canavan. And I think that probably the

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Speaker 1: ones who would be most worried about this would have

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Speaker 1: to be One Nation who have just surged and surged

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Speaker 1: and surged, and suddenly you've got a very traditionally conservative

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Speaker 1: coalition now that will probably take the fight more to

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Speaker 1: One Nation and then to Labor in that order.

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Speaker 2: Almost least worried the Labor Party, second least worried the

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Speaker 2: Teals because the coalition forces seen to have left that

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Speaker 2: middle ground open. Now. Agus Taylor obviously a major conservative.

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Speaker 2: Matt Canavan is far further right than that. It'll be interesting,

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Speaker 2: it's heart well, look good luck to both of them.

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Speaker 2: We wouldn't need a strong opposition certainly now.

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Speaker 1: Treasurer Jim Chalmers yesterday said Australia won't be immune to

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Speaker 1: volatility in the energy market, but the global economic turmoil

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Speaker 1: won't prevent economic reform in the May budget.

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Speaker 2: On ABC's Radio National, Charmers conceded that the Middle East

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Speaker 2: CONFI would worsen Australia's inflationary outlook. Inflation is one of

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Speaker 2: the three big challenges, he said, along with productivity and

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Speaker 2: global uncertainty. Chalmers said it wasn't clear if there would

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Speaker 2: be a windfall in the budget from the soaring price

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Speaker 2: of Australian exported LNG. He added that the economic impacts

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Speaker 2: of the war wouldn't necessarily limit the potential for reform

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Speaker 2: in the budget. Let's hope not. Expectations really are growing

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Speaker 2: for major reforms to be outlined in May twelve federal budget.

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Speaker 2: The Prime Minister has hinted at it, we have Jim

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Speaker 2: Chalmers hinting at it. I just hope they don't grow

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Speaker 2: to the point where people are going to be disappointed

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Speaker 2: no matter what.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Elsewhere in politics, Shawn. The National Anti Corruption Commission

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Speaker 1: yesterday cleared former Prime Minister Scott Morrison and three of

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Speaker 1: the six officials referred for investigation by the Royal Commission

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Speaker 1: into the Robodet scheme.

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Speaker 2: That's right, but a former Department of Human Services official,

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Speaker 2: a guy called Mark Whitnel, and Deputy Secretary Serena Wilson

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Speaker 2: were found to engage in corrupt conduct with NOLL for

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Speaker 2: internationally misleading officials. Wilson intentionally misleading the column of Umbardsman.

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Speaker 1: Now, this next one's interesting, Sean, the Freed.

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Speaker 2: Every story on the show is interesting. I don't want

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Speaker 2: to say this next one is interesting. I take slight offense.

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Speaker 1: No, I mean, it's basically just if you're just listening there, okay, politics, politics,

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Speaker 1: and all of a sudden you hear, hey, this is interesting. Eyes.

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Speaker 1: I can just picture eyes lighting up all over the country, Sean.

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Speaker 1: The federal government will pump two hundred million dollars into

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Speaker 1: ASX listed cloud cybersecurity and tech telecommunications company Macquarie Technology

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Speaker 1: Group to help keep Australian data on shore and create

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Speaker 1: jobs in technology and artificial intelligence.

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Speaker 2: So one of the biggest fights coming up in the

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Speaker 2: AI world is around governance of the data where it

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Speaker 2: sits that type of thing. Mcquari Tech owns data centers

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Speaker 2: that support many government agency clients, and the National Reconstruction

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Speaker 2: Funds investment aims to help the Department of Defense and

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Speaker 2: others people to use sovereign cloud services in AI without

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Speaker 2: worrying about it leaving the country. Minister for Industry and

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Speaker 2: Innovation Tim Airs said the investment gives Australian businesses the

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Speaker 2: confidence to harness AI while making sure critical digital infrastructure

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Speaker 2: and information remains on sure. The National Reconstruction Fund, established

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Speaker 2: back in twenty twenty three, has a fifteen billion dollar

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Speaker 2: mandate to invest in companies and projects that diversify and

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Speaker 2: transform Australia's industry and economy. This turndred million dollars investment

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Speaker 2: is part of that. I mean, good news for mcquari Tech,

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Speaker 2: which is listed. Of course, its share price rose yesterday

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Speaker 2: on the back of it. Chief executive David toot Hope

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Speaker 2: said the investment would give the company more financial flexibility.

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Speaker 2: I quote him, this new source of capital enables us

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Speaker 2: to expand our role as a provider of secure digital

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Speaker 2: infrastructure and cybersecurity, delivering significant benefit to the Australian economy

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Speaker 2: over time. Point of this story, I mean, you know,

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Speaker 2: good on mcquarie Tech for getting the money, the two

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Speaker 2: hundred million dollars and the government chose them and all

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Speaker 2: that's fair enough. But this is just a precursor to

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Speaker 2: an almighty Barney about a sort of data in governance

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Speaker 2: around AI. How many people at work just cut and

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Speaker 2: paste in the chat GPT information from their job which

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Speaker 2: may actually be confidential, which may not be allowed to

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Speaker 2: be outside their environment, just to get it better written

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Speaker 2: or an idea on it. I bet it happens all

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Speaker 2: the time.

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Speaker 1: Well, we saw it recently only a couple of weeks

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Speaker 1: ago with Deloitte. I think it was that was warning

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Speaker 1: all of its staff, Hey, stopped doing this. Only use

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Speaker 1: the approved AI systems that we have in place already

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Speaker 1: because it actually potentially putting clients at risk. And I

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Speaker 1: just find it fascinating as well what the National Reconstruction

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Speaker 1: Fund is putting money into, because every few weeks it

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Speaker 1: feels like we're hearing about another big investment. There was one.

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Speaker 1: There was seventy five million dollars or thereabouts into Gilmore

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Speaker 1: Space Technologies, remember the company that's got the rocket up

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Speaker 1: in North Queensland to try and kind of help Australia's

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Speaker 1: space industry get off the ground. So clearly a fairly

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Speaker 1: diverse rare earths.

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Speaker 2: I think it's invested in rare earth in recent times

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Speaker 2: as well Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, interesting see objectively interesting story, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, they've all been cracking stories this morning, Michael.

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Speaker 1: Shall we get to international news story? Yep, that's true. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: this is an Amazon owned company, zooks. I'm assuming it's

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Speaker 1: it's the works for zoo X. This is one of

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Speaker 1: those great conundrums, Sean, and I committed to Zooks and

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Speaker 1: now I feel like I might have made a fool

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Speaker 1: of myself. But you know what, don't back down. Zookes

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Speaker 1: wants to put a very specific kind of robotaxi on

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Speaker 1: US roads, one without a steering wheel or without any pedals,

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Speaker 1: so no accelerator, no brakes, certainly no clutch. Goodness me.

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Speaker 1: The company has asked US regulators to allow it to

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Speaker 1: deploy purpose built vehicles that really do not look or

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Speaker 1: drive like a traditional cut.

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Speaker 2: The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said it is seeking

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Speaker 2: public comments on the Amazon Amazon owned company Zoos or Zooex,

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Speaker 2: depending on whatever you want to call it, basically, which

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Speaker 2: wants to deploy two and a half thousand robo taxis

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Speaker 2: if it gets a green light. It Actually, the thing

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Speaker 2: about a lot of these vehicles is that a robot

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Speaker 2: taxis retro fitted at the moment from existing models. If

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Speaker 2: you can just say, look, we don't need steering wheels,

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Speaker 2: mean no one's driving them, so you don't need any

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Speaker 2: of that paraphernalia, you can suddenly get much much cheaper

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Speaker 2: fleets because they're purpose built vehicles, simpler to manufacture, it's

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Speaker 2: much easier to maintain because they are more moving parts

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Speaker 2: or less moving parts. Less moving parts, that's it much

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Speaker 2: easier to optimize for passenger turnovers. They suddenly you can

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Speaker 2: fit five or six people in, not four people in.

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Speaker 2: The immediate business question is not whether the technology is

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Speaker 2: exciting it is it is whether the regulatory path can

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Speaker 2: keep up with a product designed around autonomy, and that

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Speaker 2: is a really big question. Basically, it'll be interesting to

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Speaker 2: see the detail that the regulators receive, the feedback that

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Speaker 2: the regulators receive, and how quickly the agency signals a

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Speaker 2: decision timeline.

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Speaker 1: Just a little bit of quick googling, Sean, So it

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Speaker 1: was either what do we say, zooks or zoo x.

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Speaker 1: It's neither. It is in fact zooks like books or hooks.

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Speaker 2: Zooks. Yeah, there you go.

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Speaker 1: Would never have guessed that well played zooks. Up next

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Speaker 1: is fear and Greed Q and A and Sean, you

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Speaker 1: got a cracker of a chat coming up with ABC

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Speaker 1: Bullion's Jordan Alissio.

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Speaker 2: So when we were talking about the price of gold

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Speaker 2: going through the roof someone, well I'm not someone someone

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Speaker 2: called Sean said yeah, I don't know how easy it

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Speaker 2: is just to buy gold bullion, And of course someone

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Speaker 2: immediately got in touch with this and said it's really

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Speaker 2: easy to go down to a bullion So this is

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Speaker 2: how this interview started out. And of course then we've

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Speaker 2: had all the lines of people in Martin Place in

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Speaker 2: Sydney outside ABC Bullion, So we ask him about that

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Speaker 2: about who buys it, how do they hold it? Like

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Speaker 2: where do they keep it? Do they walk into the store,

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Speaker 2: buy some shovel in their pocket, walk out? And then

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Speaker 2: we go on to investing in the benefits of gold

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Speaker 2: and whether it is will hold its value going forward.

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Speaker 2: But it's just a really interesting I'm going to say

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Speaker 2: one o one, but it's kind of practical chat about gold.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, and everyone from kind of your retail your

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Speaker 1: mum and dad investors who are going into the shop

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Speaker 1: and buying mist of gold, to your bigger kind of

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Speaker 1: institutional investors, family offices, all this kind of stuff. It

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Speaker 1: is really interesting and the ABC Bullion is a great

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Speaker 1: supporter of Fear and Greed. It is coming up next

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Speaker 1: in the Fear and Greed playlist on your podcast platform

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Speaker 1: or at Fearandgreed dot com todau, which is where you

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Speaker 1: also sign up for the superb the twenty four Carrot

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Speaker 1: Daily newsletter, Sean. I'll put a link in the show

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Speaker 1: notes as well. Thank you very much.

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Speaker 2: Thanks Michael.

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Speaker 1: It's Thursday, the twelfth of March twenty twenty six. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and join us online on

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Speaker 1: LinkedIn and Instagram. I'm Michael Thompson and Aosphere and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Have a great day.