1 00:00:04,019 --> 00:00:06,689 Sean Aylmer: Welcome to the Fear And Greed Daily Interview. I'm Sean 2 00:00:06,690 --> 00:00:10,200 Sean Aylmer: Aylmer. Yesterday the Reserve Bank Board increased the official cash 3 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:13,740 Sean Aylmer: rate by another 50 basis points. The move was widely 4 00:00:13,740 --> 00:00:15,960 Sean Aylmer: expected, the latest in a run of hikes as the 5 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:19,619 Sean Aylmer: Central Bank grapples with soaring inflation. But Reserve Bank Governor 6 00:00:19,620 --> 00:00:23,730 Sean Aylmer: Phillip Low also warned of higher inflation, weaker economic growth 7 00:00:23,730 --> 00:00:27,300 Sean Aylmer: and rising unemployment to come. Gareth Aird is Commonwealth Bank's 8 00:00:27,300 --> 00:00:30,600 Sean Aylmer: head of Australian economics. Gareth, welcome back to Fear and Greed. 9 00:00:30,840 --> 00:00:32,519 Gareth AIrd: G'day, Sean. It's good to chat with you again. 10 00:00:33,000 --> 00:00:35,190 Sean Aylmer: Any surprises for you yesterday afternoon? 11 00:00:35,639 --> 00:00:38,760 Gareth AIrd: Not really, certainly not in the decision to increase the 12 00:00:38,760 --> 00:00:42,208 Gareth AIrd: cash rate by 50 basis points. That was very much 13 00:00:42,210 --> 00:00:44,790 Gareth AIrd: expected across the sell side of economists and that was 14 00:00:44,790 --> 00:00:48,420 Gareth AIrd: in line with our peak, so no surprises there. The 15 00:00:48,570 --> 00:00:51,900 Gareth AIrd: RBA have upwardly revised their peak in the inflation rate to 16 00:00:51,900 --> 00:00:54,599 Gareth AIrd: seven and three quarter percent. They had just a little 17 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:58,440 Gareth AIrd: while ago been talking about a peak of 7%. So that 18 00:00:58,440 --> 00:01:01,650 Gareth AIrd: was somewhat surprising, albeit it did actually marry up with 19 00:01:01,650 --> 00:01:04,979 Gareth AIrd: what the government said last week when they said they now expect 20 00:01:04,980 --> 00:01:07,438 Gareth AIrd: the inflation rate to peak at seven and three quarter 21 00:01:07,440 --> 00:01:11,039 Gareth AIrd: percent. But overall, what we took out of the statement 22 00:01:11,039 --> 00:01:14,040 Gareth AIrd: was that it does sound like the RBA's getting closer 23 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,709 Gareth AIrd: to the point at which they'll pause. I think there 24 00:01:16,709 --> 00:01:20,400 Gareth AIrd: was a pragmatism in the statement overall. The Governor has 25 00:01:20,429 --> 00:01:22,589 Gareth AIrd: to go through literally what he said. He said that 26 00:01:22,620 --> 00:01:25,440 Gareth AIrd: the board is placing a high priority on getting inflation 27 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:28,019 Gareth AIrd: back to the target range over time. But they want 28 00:01:28,020 --> 00:01:30,779 Gareth AIrd: to keep the economy on an even keel, and the 29 00:01:30,779 --> 00:01:33,568 Gareth AIrd: path to achieve this is a narrow one, he said, 30 00:01:33,569 --> 00:01:36,480 Gareth AIrd: and clouded in uncertainty. So I think what that means 31 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:39,000 Gareth AIrd: is they're getting to the point at which they'll probably 32 00:01:39,000 --> 00:01:41,760 Gareth AIrd: pause. We think that's an interest rate of around 2.6%. 33 00:01:42,660 --> 00:01:45,328 Gareth AIrd: And I think provided they pause there, we won't actually 34 00:01:45,330 --> 00:01:47,309 Gareth AIrd: see anything more in the, in the way of rate 35 00:01:47,309 --> 00:01:47,851 Gareth AIrd: hikes next year. 36 00:01:47,851 --> 00:01:51,750 Sean Aylmer: Okay. So just before we get to that, the Reserve Bank's 37 00:01:51,750 --> 00:01:56,880 Sean Aylmer: not known for euphemistic language. And yesterday, the term even 38 00:01:56,880 --> 00:01:59,429 Sean Aylmer: keel isn't a term that I would imagine the Reserve 39 00:01:59,429 --> 00:02:02,820 Sean Aylmer: Bank wouldn't use much and the analogies of the narrow 40 00:02:02,820 --> 00:02:05,160 Sean Aylmer: path and all that sort of stuff it just sounded 41 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:05,820 Sean Aylmer: different yesterday. 42 00:02:05,820 --> 00:02:09,360 Gareth AIrd: It did a little bit. He'd actually made reference to that 43 00:02:09,360 --> 00:02:11,400 Gareth AIrd: sort of language in a speech before. But I guess 44 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,190 Gareth AIrd: in Reserve Bank speeches, you get language which is a 45 00:02:14,190 --> 00:02:16,440 Gareth AIrd: little bit more colorful. I think it did paint some 46 00:02:16,440 --> 00:02:19,889 Gareth AIrd: good imagery, though. I think it leaves us feeling relatively 47 00:02:20,250 --> 00:02:23,459 Gareth AIrd: comfortable with the idea that while the ABOs pushing through 48 00:02:23,459 --> 00:02:26,190 Gareth AIrd: with what is it in a very aggressive tightening cycle at 49 00:02:26,190 --> 00:02:29,489 Gareth AIrd: the moment, they just won't keep hiking rates willy- nilly, 50 00:02:29,490 --> 00:02:32,190 Gareth AIrd: and at some stage they will actually pause. I think 51 00:02:32,190 --> 00:02:35,370 Gareth AIrd: that's in the not too distant future. And provided they 52 00:02:35,370 --> 00:02:38,369 Gareth AIrd: do that, they're not actually trying to take their policy 53 00:02:38,370 --> 00:02:41,609 Gareth AIrd: rate to a contractionary setting and actually engineer what would 54 00:02:41,609 --> 00:02:43,860 Gareth AIrd: be a hard landing in the economy, which is the 55 00:02:43,860 --> 00:02:46,169 Gareth AIrd: path that some other central banks seem to be going 56 00:02:46,169 --> 00:02:49,080 Gareth AIrd: down just because they're so focused on getting inflation down. 57 00:02:49,530 --> 00:02:52,200 Sean Aylmer: Okay, so how high do you think interest rates will go? 58 00:02:52,650 --> 00:02:55,139 Gareth AIrd: Well, we think they'll get to around 2. 6%. We're 59 00:02:55,139 --> 00:02:57,870 Gareth AIrd: still on these odd metrics, given the starting point was 60 00:02:57,870 --> 00:03:00,119 Gareth AIrd: a cash rate of 10 basis points and the Reserve 61 00:03:00,119 --> 00:03:02,400 Gareth AIrd: Bank has just moved in. Well, they moved in 1 62 00:03:02,400 --> 00:03:06,510 Gareth AIrd: 25 basis point increment and then three 50 basis point 63 00:03:06,570 --> 00:03:10,470 Gareth AIrd: hikes. So they've delivered actually 175 basis points of tightening 64 00:03:10,980 --> 00:03:14,280 Gareth AIrd: over four meetings, which is effectively just over three months, 65 00:03:14,549 --> 00:03:17,549 Gareth AIrd: which is an incredible pace of tightening. We think they've 66 00:03:17,549 --> 00:03:21,120 Gareth AIrd: got another 75 basis points to go, which would get 67 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:24,120 Gareth AIrd: the cash rate to 2. 6%. And they could either do 68 00:03:24,120 --> 00:03:27,660 Gareth AIrd: that by another 50 and then a 25 or three 69 00:03:27,660 --> 00:03:31,770 Gareth AIrd: consecutive 25s, something like that. That gets the cash rate 70 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:34,589 Gareth AIrd: around about to where the Reserve Bank thinks is the 71 00:03:34,590 --> 00:03:36,870 Gareth AIrd: neutral cash rate, albeit they don't have a lot of 72 00:03:36,870 --> 00:03:38,700 Gareth AIrd: conviction in that view, but they have sort of flagged 73 00:03:38,700 --> 00:03:41,550 Gareth AIrd: it being around the midpoint of the target. Now our 74 00:03:41,550 --> 00:03:44,940 Gareth AIrd: work indicates that a cash rate at that level is 75 00:03:44,940 --> 00:03:48,330 Gareth AIrd: actually a contractionary setting. And we think the neutral cash 76 00:03:48,330 --> 00:03:50,670 Gareth AIrd: rate in Australia is about a hundred basis points lower 77 00:03:50,670 --> 00:03:52,949 Gareth AIrd: than that. So we think if they take the policy 78 00:03:52,949 --> 00:03:55,860 Gareth AIrd: rate up to those kind of levels, the economy will 79 00:03:55,860 --> 00:03:58,320 Gareth AIrd: slow quite significantly as we go through next year. And 80 00:03:58,620 --> 00:04:00,840 Gareth AIrd: we've actually got a few cuts in our profile for 81 00:04:00,840 --> 00:04:01,831 Gareth AIrd: the second half of next year. 82 00:04:01,831 --> 00:04:04,860 Sean Aylmer: Okay, so we might be at neutral now then, if that's 83 00:04:04,860 --> 00:04:05,280 Sean Aylmer: the case. 84 00:04:05,550 --> 00:04:07,889 Gareth AIrd: Well, we think so, that's right. It's one of those 85 00:04:07,889 --> 00:04:09,959 Gareth AIrd: things where there are a number of different ways to 86 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:12,600 Gareth AIrd: estimate and depending on which way you do it, you 87 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:15,480 Gareth AIrd: get different numbers. But we look at it very pragmatically 88 00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:18,060 Gareth AIrd: through what is an increase in the cash rate due 89 00:04:18,060 --> 00:04:21,029 Gareth AIrd: to mortgage or payments as a share of household disposable 90 00:04:21,029 --> 00:04:24,300 Gareth AIrd: income? And if all mortgage debt was floating in Australia, 91 00:04:24,630 --> 00:04:26,248 Gareth AIrd: then at a cash rate of around one and a 92 00:04:26,250 --> 00:04:29,279 Gareth AIrd: half percent, you take mortgage repayments back to an average 93 00:04:29,580 --> 00:04:33,150 Gareth AIrd: level, or share rather, of household disposable income. At a 94 00:04:33,150 --> 00:04:35,820 Gareth AIrd: cash rate of two and a half percent, mortgage repayments 95 00:04:35,820 --> 00:04:38,488 Gareth AIrd: basically go to a record high as a share of 96 00:04:38,490 --> 00:04:42,359 Gareth AIrd: household income because the stock of debt is so large. 97 00:04:42,420 --> 00:04:44,609 Gareth AIrd: And it's very easy to sort of forget that we've 98 00:04:44,610 --> 00:04:48,150 Gareth AIrd: been in a structural decline in interest rates for about 99 00:04:48,180 --> 00:04:51,120 Gareth AIrd: 30 years. And over that period of time, household debt 100 00:04:51,120 --> 00:04:54,390 Gareth AIrd: has risen as a share of income. So that puts 101 00:04:54,390 --> 00:04:58,080 Gareth AIrd: a lot of downward pressure on that neutral rate. And 102 00:04:58,290 --> 00:05:00,660 Gareth AIrd: our work indicates it's around about one and a half 103 00:05:00,660 --> 00:05:01,080 Gareth AIrd: percent 104 00:05:01,469 --> 00:05:03,599 Sean Aylmer: Stay with me, Gareth. We'll be back in a minute. 105 00:05:09,660 --> 00:05:12,540 Sean Aylmer: I'm speaking to Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics at 106 00:05:12,540 --> 00:05:15,539 Sean Aylmer: the Commonwealth Bank. I just want to quickly ask about 107 00:05:15,540 --> 00:05:18,389 Sean Aylmer: the Reserve Bank itself. So five or six months ago, 108 00:05:18,389 --> 00:05:22,830 Sean Aylmer: they were still saying 2024 for the first rate hike. 109 00:05:22,889 --> 00:05:26,250 Sean Aylmer: Now we're spent many months talking about this, but they're 110 00:05:26,250 --> 00:05:30,150 Sean Aylmer: going so aggressively now. Is it about them catching up 111 00:05:30,630 --> 00:05:32,969 Sean Aylmer: with the curb or with reality? 112 00:05:33,990 --> 00:05:37,020 Gareth AIrd: I think they've just been so surprised to the extent 113 00:05:37,020 --> 00:05:39,269 Gareth AIrd: of which inflation has picked up. And I think they're 114 00:05:39,270 --> 00:05:43,380 Gareth AIrd: also looking at what's happened offshore where inflation has surprised 115 00:05:43,470 --> 00:05:47,190 Gareth AIrd: to the upside on every central bank's forecast. We've got 116 00:05:47,190 --> 00:05:49,680 Gareth AIrd: an inflation rate here that's obviously very high, 6. 1% 117 00:05:50,460 --> 00:05:52,170 Gareth AIrd: through the year on the headline rate, but it's still 118 00:05:52,170 --> 00:05:54,659 Gareth AIrd: quite a bit lower than many other central banks. And 119 00:05:54,660 --> 00:05:57,270 Gareth AIrd: we do actually have a higher inflation target. And I 120 00:05:57,270 --> 00:05:59,729 Gareth AIrd: think that's sort of widely forgotten that the Reserve Bank 121 00:05:59,730 --> 00:06:03,029 Gareth AIrd: has more flexibility given the inflation target here is 2 122 00:06:03,029 --> 00:06:05,760 Gareth AIrd: to 3%. But I think the reason they're going so 123 00:06:05,760 --> 00:06:09,299 Gareth AIrd: aggressively is that the inflation data has just come in so 124 00:06:09,300 --> 00:06:12,540 Gareth AIrd: much hotter than they expected. The unemployment rate is obviously 125 00:06:12,540 --> 00:06:15,570 Gareth AIrd: very low as well. And they seem, up until this 126 00:06:15,570 --> 00:06:17,879 Gareth AIrd: point anyway, just that they're in a race to get 127 00:06:17,879 --> 00:06:20,670 Gareth AIrd: to their estimate of neutral. I think they don't need 128 00:06:20,670 --> 00:06:22,470 Gareth AIrd: to be going at the pace that they're going and 129 00:06:22,470 --> 00:06:25,560 Gareth AIrd: think that going in clips of 25 would make a lot 130 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:28,529 Gareth AIrd: more sense given there's a lot of forward looking indicators 131 00:06:28,529 --> 00:06:31,440 Gareth AIrd: of the economy that have slowed quite significantly in a 132 00:06:31,440 --> 00:06:34,020 Gareth AIrd: very short amount of time. We found out yesterday that 133 00:06:34,020 --> 00:06:36,360 Gareth AIrd: house prices are now falling in a pretty decent rate. 134 00:06:36,870 --> 00:06:40,350 Gareth AIrd: New lending for homes was down quite significantly in June. 135 00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:44,790 Gareth AIrd: Consumer sentiment is at recessionary type level. So there's already 136 00:06:44,790 --> 00:06:47,190 Gareth AIrd: a lot in the forward looking data that suggests they 137 00:06:47,190 --> 00:06:50,309 Gareth AIrd: don't need to be raising rates at the rate at which 138 00:06:50,309 --> 00:06:53,369 Gareth AIrd: they're doing it. Having said all that, I think that 139 00:06:53,369 --> 00:06:57,060 Gareth AIrd: they've just seen inflation data that's just so much higher 140 00:06:57,060 --> 00:06:59,400 Gareth AIrd: than they expected and thought, " We need to get to 141 00:06:59,400 --> 00:07:01,469 Gareth AIrd: our estimate of neutral as quickly as possible." 142 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:04,889 Sean Aylmer: It used to be that it took about 12 to 18 months for the full effect of 143 00:07:04,889 --> 00:07:07,830 Sean Aylmer: an interest rate increase or decreased to flow through to 144 00:07:07,830 --> 00:07:10,649 Sean Aylmer: the economy. Just seems to be a lot quicker now. 145 00:07:11,430 --> 00:07:13,770 Gareth AIrd: It's a lot quicker in the way it is impacting 146 00:07:13,770 --> 00:07:16,080 Gareth AIrd: certain parts of the economy. I still think you'll have 147 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:18,870 Gareth AIrd: quite a lag between changes in the cash rate and 148 00:07:18,870 --> 00:07:21,809 Gareth AIrd: the impact that has on inflation. And that's why we 149 00:07:21,809 --> 00:07:24,480 Gareth AIrd: need to be cognizant of the fact that the 175 150 00:07:24,480 --> 00:07:27,269 Gareth AIrd: basis points of tightening the RBA has so far delivered, 151 00:07:27,660 --> 00:07:30,660 Gareth AIrd: has had no impact on inflation. So we had two 152 00:07:30,660 --> 00:07:34,710 Gareth AIrd: very strong quarters in Q1 and Q2 in inflation data, but none 153 00:07:34,710 --> 00:07:38,010 Gareth AIrd: of that was actually picking up RBA policy tightening. And 154 00:07:38,010 --> 00:07:41,819 Gareth AIrd: the inflation data for the September quarter probably won't either. 155 00:07:42,210 --> 00:07:44,790 Gareth AIrd: But in terms of other things, though, you're seeing almost 156 00:07:44,849 --> 00:07:48,209 Gareth AIrd: immediate impact in terms of what the RBA is doing 157 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:52,560 Gareth AIrd: and how the data's printing, and consumer confidence is a 158 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:57,059 Gareth AIrd: real case in point. Historically, households have felt a relatively 159 00:07:57,059 --> 00:08:00,330 Gareth AIrd: good about the economic outlook going into a tightening cycle, 160 00:08:00,330 --> 00:08:03,599 Gareth AIrd: and they've stayed pretty optimistic at least through the first 161 00:08:03,599 --> 00:08:06,029 Gareth AIrd: few rate hikes. Whereas this time around, as soon as 162 00:08:06,029 --> 00:08:09,630 Gareth AIrd: the RBA started raising rates, consumer confidence has dropped like 163 00:08:09,630 --> 00:08:12,390 Gareth AIrd: a stone. And I think that's picking up the fact 164 00:08:12,390 --> 00:08:15,990 Gareth AIrd: that households just did not expect rate rises, because the 165 00:08:15,990 --> 00:08:18,300 Gareth AIrd: RBA was basically saying they didn't think they'd be raising 166 00:08:18,300 --> 00:08:21,929 Gareth AIrd: rates until 2024. And not only that, the rate hikes 167 00:08:21,929 --> 00:08:25,770 Gareth AIrd: have just come through so quickly and so aggressively, and 168 00:08:25,770 --> 00:08:27,720 Gareth AIrd: there's lots of households out there that have borrowed a 169 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,930 Gareth AIrd: lot of money and they're going to fill the pinch very, very quickly. 170 00:08:31,470 --> 00:08:35,040 Sean Aylmer: Okay, so bringing all this together, if the Reserve Bank 171 00:08:35,040 --> 00:08:38,490 Sean Aylmer: does pick up the cash rate to about 2. 6% on 172 00:08:38,490 --> 00:08:42,419 Sean Aylmer: thereabouts, can Australia avoid a recession? 173 00:08:42,809 --> 00:08:46,108 Gareth AIrd: We can avoid a recession because the RBA has the 174 00:08:46,170 --> 00:08:49,920 Gareth AIrd: ability to course correct. We're not talking here about an 175 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:53,550 Gareth AIrd: external shock causing a slowdown in the economy. We're basically 176 00:08:53,550 --> 00:08:57,990 Gareth AIrd: talking about policy makers engineering a slowdown in the economy. 177 00:08:58,320 --> 00:09:00,060 Gareth AIrd: And if it turns out to be the case that 178 00:09:00,420 --> 00:09:03,088 Gareth AIrd: if the cash rate is around about that 2. 6% 179 00:09:03,390 --> 00:09:07,350 Gareth AIrd: level and the economy's slowing pretty significantly and it's slowing 180 00:09:07,350 --> 00:09:09,660 Gareth AIrd: in a way that means consumer spending is going out 181 00:09:09,660 --> 00:09:12,509 Gareth AIrd: backwards and therefore we're talking about the potential for a 182 00:09:12,509 --> 00:09:16,049 Gareth AIrd: recession, well the Reserve Bank can quickly course correct and 183 00:09:16,049 --> 00:09:18,479 Gareth AIrd: cut the cash rate. So I think at the moment, 184 00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:21,210 Gareth AIrd: if you were to forecast a recession for the Australian 185 00:09:21,210 --> 00:09:24,540 Gareth AIrd: economy, you'd effectively have to say the RBA is going to take the 186 00:09:24,540 --> 00:09:27,630 Gareth AIrd: cash rate to a contractionary setting, wherever you estimate that 187 00:09:27,630 --> 00:09:30,599 Gareth AIrd: to be, and then leave it there as the economy 188 00:09:30,599 --> 00:09:33,569 Gareth AIrd: starts going backwards. And I think the Reserve Bank would 189 00:09:33,570 --> 00:09:36,420 Gareth AIrd: respond to data that indicated that was actually happening, and 190 00:09:36,450 --> 00:09:37,890 Gareth AIrd: therefore we could avoid a recession. 191 00:09:38,429 --> 00:09:41,699 Sean Aylmer: Gareth, you've been an economist and now Head of Australian 192 00:09:41,700 --> 00:09:43,800 Sean Aylmer: Economics at Commonwealth Bank, so you've got a very big 193 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:46,110 Sean Aylmer: job. You've been an economist for many years. It must 194 00:09:46,110 --> 00:09:49,259 Sean Aylmer: be great to be an economist now, as opposed to 195 00:09:49,259 --> 00:09:50,849 Sean Aylmer: four years ago, three years ago. 196 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:54,870 Gareth AIrd: Look, it is to the extent that the job is incredibly exciting 197 00:09:54,929 --> 00:09:59,100 Gareth AIrd: and we're in demand. Clients want to speak to us 198 00:09:59,100 --> 00:10:01,470 Gareth AIrd: probably more than at any other point in time. And in 199 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:02,880 Gareth AIrd: a lot of ways, when I think back to the 200 00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:05,429 Gareth AIrd: year's pre pandemic, I'm not sure how we managed to 201 00:10:05,429 --> 00:10:08,040 Gareth AIrd: fill an hour meeting with clients. Because you look at 202 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:11,519 Gareth AIrd: a lot of the data and nothing really was happening much month 203 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:13,620 Gareth AIrd: to month. Whereas right now we're at a point where 204 00:10:14,130 --> 00:10:16,830 Gareth AIrd: we're seeing these huge changes and swings in the data. 205 00:10:17,220 --> 00:10:19,828 Gareth AIrd: And we got that over the pandemic, but that was 206 00:10:19,830 --> 00:10:22,650 Gareth AIrd: largely because the economy was being turned on and off 207 00:10:22,860 --> 00:10:26,490 Gareth AIrd: due to restrictions being put in. But right now, the 208 00:10:26,490 --> 00:10:29,340 Gareth AIrd: economy has clear air from lockdowns and restrictions and yet 209 00:10:29,639 --> 00:10:33,270 Gareth AIrd: we're still seeing incredible swings in the data. We've got 210 00:10:33,360 --> 00:10:36,870 Gareth AIrd: a lot of volatility in financial markets and we're going 211 00:10:36,870 --> 00:10:40,290 Gareth AIrd: through a new cycle, basically. A cycle where inflation is 212 00:10:40,290 --> 00:10:42,989 Gareth AIrd: up and the Reserve Bank is tightening, and it's all happening 213 00:10:43,259 --> 00:10:46,289 Gareth AIrd: at an incredible pace. So certainly makes the job very 214 00:10:46,289 --> 00:10:48,478 Gareth AIrd: interesting, and I don't think things are going to settle 215 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:49,619 Gareth AIrd: down for a little while either. 216 00:10:50,309 --> 00:10:52,110 Sean Aylmer: Gareth, thank you for talking to Fear and Greed. 217 00:10:52,500 --> 00:10:52,860 Gareth AIrd: Pleasure. 218 00:10:53,340 --> 00:10:55,679 Sean Aylmer: That was Gareth Aird, Head of Australian Economics at the 219 00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:58,469 Sean Aylmer: Commonwealth Bank. This is a Fear And Greed Daily Interview. 220 00:10:58,469 --> 00:11:02,009 Sean Aylmer: Remember, you should get professional advice before making any investment 221 00:11:02,009 --> 00:11:04,920 Sean Aylmer: decisions. Join us every morning for the full episode of 222 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:08,220 Sean Aylmer: Fear and Greed, Australia's most popular business podcast. I'm Sean Aylmer. 223 00:11:08,880 --> 00:11:09,510 Sean Aylmer: Enjoy your day.