Speaker 1: From the Skying Center. This is Paul Murray Live Today,
Speaker 1: Good evening. Haggod, was that West Tiger's win? How many
Speaker 1: did that Saturday? Right? Haggard? Was that Tiger's win? Okay?
Speaker 1: Obviously millions of people are not feeling great today, rough
Speaker 1: night last night and trying to process exactly what went wrong,
Speaker 1: what the future may or may not look like. Can
Speaker 1: I just say at the start of this show, at
Speaker 1: the start of this next phase of the journey that
Speaker 1: the country goes on, and the journey that we've been
Speaker 1: on now for more than fifteen years, this next phase
Speaker 1: is not in any way about going to be criticizing
Speaker 1: what we believe. Okay, Will the Greens drop a want
Speaker 1: for free dental because Adam Bant may or may not
Speaker 1: lose his seat? Of course not. There are fundamental things
Speaker 1: that we believe in. There's a fundament into worldview that
Speaker 1: we have and it's one that you have every right
Speaker 1: to hold. The conversation that clearly has to happen. Will
Speaker 1: happen is to talk about the vessel with which millions
Speaker 1: of people trusted with their vote yesterday and its capacity
Speaker 1: to be able to harness that support and grow it
Speaker 1: into areas that clearly it has lost over a long
Speaker 1: period of time. Like all good friends, you have to
Speaker 1: tell the truth, and sometimes those truths are going to
Speaker 1: be uncomfortable. But I'm going to make this promise right now,
Speaker 1: this program, this station will continue to do what every
Speaker 1: media organization in the country should have as its central
Speaker 1: purpose each every day, which is to hold powerful people
Speaker 1: to account. Because a government wins a majority of one
Speaker 1: seats or one hundred seats does not mean you're never
Speaker 1: allowed to criticize them. It doesn't mean that you give
Speaker 1: them a free parts on every piece of legislation that
Speaker 1: they introduce, and that you won't focus on the people
Speaker 1: who are inevitably left behind when a line is drawn
Speaker 1: this way or that way when it comes to policy. Now,
Speaker 1: something that I have focused our show on over the
Speaker 1: past few years is to always give you as much
Speaker 1: data as possible. So if we've been following these weekly conversations,
Speaker 1: there is no surprise about the result. There is a surprise,
Speaker 1: of course, about the magnitudes, and that's demographics and a
Speaker 1: whole bunch of stuff that I'll bore you with later.
Speaker 1: But front and center, this show, this program, this station
Speaker 1: will do what it has always done and on this
Speaker 1: program and me as a host, I will show you
Speaker 1: the data from the Bureau of Statistics that tells us
Speaker 1: how many people are working multiple jobs. I'll show you
Speaker 1: the data from the Bureau of Statistics when the inflation
Speaker 1: numbers come out that while the headline's going to be good,
Speaker 1: the amount of money that you're having to pay over
Speaker 1: insurance has gone through the roof. When there's a report
Speaker 1: that tells us from the OECD about how our classrooms
Speaker 1: are some of the most disruptive in the developed world,
Speaker 1: I'm going to talk about it. When the napland results
Speaker 1: tell us that a third a third of Australian kids
Speaker 1: I'm not hitting the marks of basic literacy and numeracy.
Speaker 1: I'm going to talk about it now. Will we of
Speaker 1: course find funny clips of people we disagree with saying
Speaker 1: and doing stupid things, you bet you, But also we're
Speaker 1: going to have the conversation that we have had on
Speaker 1: this program for fifteen years. And I always talk about
Speaker 1: how I try to in putting the show together and
Speaker 1: in sitting in front of the microphone each and every night,
Speaker 1: is to try to be the most honest show on
Speaker 1: television and by that I mean, when I'm pissed off,
Speaker 1: you'll see it. When I'm happy, you'll see it. When
Speaker 1: there's good news to tell you, I'll tell you it.
Speaker 1: And when there are tough truths to discuss, we will
Speaker 1: do it. I am certainly and absolutely have never been
Speaker 1: arrogant enough to believe that mine is the only voice
Speaker 1: in the world, and therefore I'm right about everything. Like
Speaker 1: any diet, you need lots of ingredients, perhaps for me
Speaker 1: a few less nuggets, but you get my point. So
Speaker 1: I get it. Millions of people are really upset today.
Speaker 1: But the joy of our democracy is regardless of whether
Speaker 1: you are a person who got the result that they
Speaker 1: wanted or the one that didn't. We all love this joint.
Speaker 1: We all want it to be better, and that's why
Speaker 1: we get annoyed when we see the signs that it
Speaker 1: is not. I have gone on and on and on
Speaker 1: and on and on and on and on during the
Speaker 1: cost of living stuff about three million people being this
Speaker 1: close to homelessness. That's the point that is just as
Speaker 1: valid the day before the election as it is the
Speaker 1: day after the election. So let's go on the journey
Speaker 1: for the next little while of trying to work out
Speaker 1: what's next. Let us not delude ourselves, and if everyone's
Speaker 1: just a bit more like us, then everything will be awesome.
Speaker 1: Let's be serious about how our country has changed. And
Speaker 1: one of the things that again I've shown you is
Speaker 1: about the demographics, about the difference about under fifty over
Speaker 1: fifty male and female, and tonight in the state of
Speaker 1: the race. We will get into all of that in
Speaker 1: a moment or two's time. We'll also have a chat
Speaker 1: to Tom Connell about the latest results which are showing
Speaker 1: some pretty tight races in some of the seats that
Speaker 1: people had claimed last night. Is a privilege to talk
Speaker 1: to you every day, one I will never take for granted,
Speaker 1: and one that I hope to repay with honesty, enthusiasm,
Speaker 1: and at times a little bit of entertainment. So let's
Speaker 1: get to the five things not about this election, about data.
Speaker 1: But let's get too so what's next. We all know
Speaker 1: what happened last night. I will save you playing five
Speaker 1: hundred times over speeches you've already heard that have already
Speaker 1: no doubt probably made you feel a little weird, but
Speaker 1: still Prime Minister takes his victory lap today. While I
Speaker 1: was in the room last night in Brisbane one of
Speaker 1: the most lovely moments. And remember when Kim Beasley lost
Speaker 1: in two thousand and one, there was a lot of
Speaker 1: people in his concession speech you said, oh, if that
Speaker 1: guy had turned up, that'd be the guy who'd win
Speaker 1: an election. That's not the point I'm going to make here,
Speaker 1: but I loved that there was a really human dad
Speaker 1: moment where the kids turned to him and he turns
Speaker 1: to the kids. Not for the politics of it all,
Speaker 1: but for people who knew that their dad may have
Speaker 1: woken up yesterday with the hope of being the Prime Minister,
Speaker 1: but ended last night as a person who is now
Speaker 1: out of Australian politics. To Peter Dutton, to his wife
Speaker 1: Kiri Lee, and to those beautiful children they have had
Speaker 1: to share their father with the entire country for a
Speaker 1: long time, in fact, for most of their lives. They
Speaker 1: now have dad back, and I look forward to continuing
Speaker 1: a friendship with a man who I well and truly
Speaker 1: do admire. In terms of the gravity and size of things. Again,
Speaker 1: I could sit here and show you this chart and
Speaker 1: that chart, but you know all of that. You've seen
Speaker 1: all of that. If you're watching now, you were watching
Speaker 1: every minute of the coverage last night, and I loved
Speaker 1: our panel and I loved their insights. But I've got
Speaker 1: to say probably the person who, with good humor and
Speaker 1: his traditional smile, an old school labor man, Joel Fitzgibbon.
Speaker 1: He made a point about where things are stark, a
Speaker 1: little bit frightening, but it's also true.
Speaker 2: What do all these people have in common other than
Speaker 2: the fact that they led the Liberal Party at some
Speaker 2: point Menzies, Holt, Gordon, McMahons, Nevin p Cock, Howard, Yusen, Downer, Nelson, Turnbull,
Speaker 2: Abbott and Dunton. They all represented seats the Liberal Party
Speaker 2: no longer represents. Thank god, they've hung on to one.
Speaker 1: And Cook that's pretty wild. That's pretty wild, and he's
Speaker 1: not rubbing sold into the wounds. Is diagnosing the obvious again.
Speaker 1: Tom Connell, who was the first call at the best
Speaker 1: call it the man who is top of his game,
Speaker 1: top of his game, knows it inside, knows it outside,
Speaker 1: and will always take a random phone call from me,
Speaker 1: what about this? What about that? Have you thought about this?
Speaker 1: What's going on there? Tom Connell is an absolute star,
Speaker 1: absolute star, and he's going to move his screen a
Speaker 1: little closer to the man Cave'll talk to him in
Speaker 1: a moment. Who's time? State of the race? The last
Speaker 1: one for these Sunday nights that have gone all the
Speaker 1: way through. But obviously Cos Samarus from Redbridge and Michael
Speaker 1: Kroger are part of the PM Live family and we
Speaker 1: will have a chat in such a fashion in a
Speaker 1: couple of moments time. So what's next now? Again, I
Speaker 1: could go through five different things about what happened here
Speaker 1: in demographic and I'll get to all of that. But
Speaker 1: you've got to look forward, and you've got to be positive,
Speaker 1: and you've got to be pragmatic, and you've got to
Speaker 1: be realistic. So I'm going to ask some questions that
Speaker 1: maybe I don't have the answer to the day after,
Speaker 1: but I think is the beginning of the conversation that
Speaker 1: needs to be had about the political vessel under which
Speaker 1: millions of people voted for yesterday. Number One, I want
Speaker 1: the Liberal Party to take time to be honest about
Speaker 1: what happened. I don't want a quick review in and
Speaker 1: out couple of weeks one press conference. I don't want
Speaker 1: the people at the front of the movement to think
Speaker 1: that label will eventually drop the ball. And the last
Speaker 1: person standing will one day become the prime minister. No,
Speaker 1: it's going to require a lot more work than that.
Speaker 1: I'd love to see the Liberal Party have the honesty
Speaker 1: and openness to not just have one review, but what
Speaker 1: about multiple reviews, not just chapters inside the reviews. What
Speaker 1: about about one done by a person under fifty about
Speaker 1: the issue of under fifty? What about suburban inner suburban
Speaker 1: ideas out of suburban ideas as well? I should say
Speaker 1: there should be multiple people of those different flocks who
Speaker 1: tell us their views of things. Why not invite the
Speaker 1: living former prime ministers not to make a submission, but
Speaker 1: to make it public about what they think the future
Speaker 1: of the movement is. There's no point or purpose in
Speaker 1: constantly talking about the numbers that came in on Saturday,
Speaker 1: but they are the reality and the political reality that
Speaker 1: we will be living with for the next three years.
Speaker 1: I also think that the organization should look to some
Speaker 1: elements of the corporate sector here, and you're going to
Speaker 1: maybe think, oh, a little bit lefty here, Paul, No, no, no,
Speaker 1: there are people who work for massive corporations in this
Speaker 1: country who are experts in change, and that isn't about diversity, quota,
Speaker 1: special mentions of this and everyone humming at the sun
Speaker 1: at midday. These are about people. These are people, I
Speaker 1: should say, who have incredible insights not just into human
Speaker 1: behavior but organizational behavior. And yes they are not of
Speaker 1: the political flock, but I think there's an opportunity because
Speaker 1: at an organizational level, and again I bare you by
Speaker 1: going through it, but think about it. In New South
Speaker 1: Wales they couldn't fill out a form to get the
Speaker 1: councilors nominated. In Victoria they couldn't fill out a form
Speaker 1: to argue the redistributions. There's how many in Western Australia.
Speaker 1: Queensland's going well at the state level, but clearly at
Speaker 1: the federal level we saw what happened. There were seats
Speaker 1: of Labor Party wouldn't have even privately thought were possible
Speaker 1: that ended up changing. So there's lots of different areas
Speaker 1: of expertise and there are lots of people, and there's
Speaker 1: millions of people who they are able to reach out to,
Speaker 1: not just a conversation inside quick tick and flic go
Speaker 1: go on the attack from day one and will eventually
Speaker 1: tear him down. That's not going to work. Bill Shorten, Yes,
Speaker 1: unsuccessful labor leader, he talked about how you did you
Speaker 1: fix your party, work on the policy, then turn your
Speaker 1: attention to an election. That's the sort of stuff that
Speaker 1: I think this organization needs to deal with. Number two
Speaker 1: in the five things that I think are the insights
Speaker 1: into the future, don't just learn a lesson, but be
Speaker 1: seen to learn a lesson. Now, Australian politics is basically
Speaker 1: one third Labor, one third Liberal, and one third who
Speaker 1: are voting for something else, the majority of which are
Speaker 1: preferencing the Labor Party. Whoever the leader or leadership team is.
Speaker 1: I hope that in the first months after this election
Speaker 1: that they go and hold public town halls in every
Speaker 1: single seat that they lost, not so people can yell,
Speaker 1: not so we could gnash our teeth and get the
Speaker 1: win about, but to hear people. Hear people who were
Speaker 1: disappointed and went off to the right, disappointed and went
Speaker 1: off to the left. And no, you don't turn around
Speaker 1: and say, well, you know, Jenny and Bendigo had this
Speaker 1: one incredible idea, let's change everything. So Jenny from it's
Speaker 1: not about that. But slowly but surely, once you have
Speaker 1: a meeting here, and a meeting there, and a meeting
Speaker 1: over there, and one back there, and one over there
Speaker 1: and one off to the side, and yes, the press
Speaker 1: will be there. You'll be able to slowly but surely
Speaker 1: see there two, four, six, eight ten ideas. And then
Speaker 1: you put that into the process of an organization that's
Speaker 1: serious about change, that's talking to people about change. And
Speaker 1: I think that that's how you can modernize. I think
Speaker 1: that's how you reflect the changes in our country. The
Speaker 1: third one worth talking about it you've got to meet
Speaker 1: the people where they are.
Speaker 3: Now.
Speaker 1: People who think the politics about an arm wrestle and
Speaker 1: it's only two sides and that's it. Well, we're not
Speaker 1: in a cocin Pepsi world anymore. We're not in a
Speaker 1: Fosters or VB world. Where in a world when have
Speaker 1: you ever been to a bottle shop. There's a lot
Speaker 1: of choices out there, and yes, there are two primary
Speaker 1: ones when it comes to the choice of government right now,
Speaker 1: but you can't always assume that that's going to be
Speaker 1: the case. In a place like the UK, the Reform
Speaker 1: Party at the council elections and the system's different. It's
Speaker 1: voluntary voting and it's first past the post, but they
Speaker 1: got more people elected to more councils across the entire
Speaker 1: UK than any other party that was running, and they
Speaker 1: only had just to bear few members of parliament in
Speaker 1: the Federal Parliament. Nija Faraj is still part of the
Speaker 1: Polmurray Life family and he'll be back with us sooner
Speaker 1: rather than later. But he was focused for the past
Speaker 1: few weeks on a campaign and on a campaign about
Speaker 1: being a happy warrior. So again, it's about the people
Speaker 1: you talk to too. Now you're going to see a
Speaker 1: lot of inevitable analysis from people who are commercial or
Speaker 1: ideological rivals, who say, oh, you don't talk to this person,
Speaker 1: you should only talk to this people. And there's not
Speaker 1: a strategy of winning that you know. If you do
Speaker 1: a weekly appearance on radio national, everything will be okay. No,
Speaker 1: you go everywhere, you go everywhere. Whoever the next leader is,
Speaker 1: they should be on those breakfast TV shows every single week.
Speaker 1: Whoever the leader is should be offering opinion columns regularly
Speaker 1: in multiple media outlets, of which seventeen people who work
Speaker 1: for those media outlets could turn around and write the response.
Speaker 1: But you're still out there. You're still out there talking
Speaker 1: to maybe even a room where ninety percent of people
Speaker 1: may disagree with you. There's also the worlds of social media,
Speaker 1: non traditional media, sports, media, entertainment, meet there's lots of
Speaker 1: different places to go, FM, breakfast radio. And I know
Speaker 1: that I'm not breaking news that you need to do
Speaker 1: these things, but you don't need to do these things
Speaker 1: three weeks before an election. You need to do them
Speaker 1: for the full three years to be part of that conversation,
Speaker 1: no matter how far away you are from power. And also,
Speaker 1: I think that this idea about meeting people where there are,
Speaker 1: and this is probably as sharp as I'm going to
Speaker 1: get tonight, which is it's not about putting voters through
Speaker 1: purity tests or the people that you talk to through
Speaker 1: purity tests, and unless you fully pass, you know you
Speaker 1: must be this blue tobaccos. Well, the real is a
Speaker 1: thirty is red, to thirty is blue, and a thirty's
Speaker 1: question mark at the moment. The other thing too, about
Speaker 1: meeting people where they are is the people generally speaking,
Speaker 1: they wake up every single day with a smile on
Speaker 1: their face. The sun comes up, and how good is
Speaker 1: it be a happy warrior. Perfect example of that is
Speaker 1: the great Nigel Farage, who is going to be on
Speaker 1: the show on Tuesday Night, Number four empower the next generation.
Speaker 1: This does not mean that the Liberal Party has to
Speaker 1: automatically go, oh, if we run lots of people looking
Speaker 1: like gen Z, then gin Z will vote for us.
Speaker 1: All the millennials will vote for us.
Speaker 4: No.
Speaker 1: One of the coolest things that happened last night was
Speaker 1: as I was about to leave the room, it took
Speaker 1: me about an hour to leave the room because I
Speaker 1: had these great conversations with young party volunteers. Half a
Speaker 1: dozen here, half a dozen there, half a dozen next
Speaker 1: to where we were broadcasting. And I hope that those
Speaker 1: voices are not just the soldiers who go and do
Speaker 1: what head office says. I hope that those people feel
Speaker 1: like they are part of a process where you're able
Speaker 1: to say, well, my friends say this, and my friends
Speaker 1: say that again, not so you just flip and flip
Speaker 1: and flip, but so you've got real insight. I'd like
Speaker 1: to see a greater prominence in the policy conversation about
Speaker 1: the next generation of voices, which does not mean that
Speaker 1: the current generation or older generations are irrelevant in the conversation. No, no, no.
Speaker 1: The coalition of getting yourself to half of the country
Speaker 1: is that there's lots of different networks that make that up,
Speaker 1: and one should not have more value than the other.
Speaker 1: My view is in this process, if done right, you
Speaker 1: have an ability to have insight into each of those networks,
Speaker 1: respecting the people who have won and done before taking
Speaker 1: some risk with the people who think that there might
Speaker 1: be a different way of doing something. Every now and then,
Speaker 1: and finally, most obviously for the Liberal Party, everything is
Speaker 1: on the table. Everything is on the table. Whoever the
Speaker 1: next leader is, I think they should basically stand up
Speaker 1: as soon as next week and say, okay, reset button.
Speaker 1: Every policy we took. The election gone will decide whether
Speaker 1: we do or don't recommit to those things. And that's
Speaker 1: not a conversation about values. That's conversation about policy. You've
Speaker 1: got three years to have that conversation. Obviously, with people
Speaker 1: voting early, you have to have the big ideas out early.
Speaker 1: But everything's on the table about how to get more
Speaker 1: people to run and the things that you talk about,
Speaker 1: the branding, the logo, all of it. Everything should be
Speaker 1: on the table. So again I say, as one of
Speaker 1: the millions of people who are disappointed by the result,
Speaker 1: we continue because when we give up is when they
Speaker 1: truly win. All right, let's get to Tom Connell, the
Speaker 1: man who, as I say, I cannot blow enough smoke
Speaker 1: and I cannot pump those tires up hard enough. In fact,
Speaker 1: I think his tires should be so big that they
Speaker 1: could go onto one of those mining trucks that we
Speaker 1: saw in Cowgoli last week. Tom Connell, he's a mate,
Speaker 1: he's a colleague, and he has been kicking as this election. Mate.
Speaker 1: I know you don't love the public the public praise,
Speaker 1: but congratulations on the night made.
Speaker 3: Very generous.
Speaker 5: I mean I bumped into a couple of people at
Speaker 5: the hotel and they said, oh are you Thomas said yeah.
Speaker 5: They said, do you know Paul Murray? So you know
Speaker 5: we all know really where the Sky newsans sit out there.
Speaker 1: It's all the family. We love you, we love you. Okay,
Speaker 1: let's get through some stuff. Latest count now, obviously labor,
Speaker 1: you know there's still plenty on the table for them
Speaker 1: to push a little bit higher. What did say one
Speaker 1: day do because we've got to give credit to the
Speaker 1: Electric Commission. They actually did have a look into some
Speaker 1: postal voting today and that's tightened a couple of races.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it has.
Speaker 5: Let's go through the tally first of all, and where
Speaker 5: we're at. So this is pre election Labour seventy eight.
Speaker 5: I want to draw some attention to here Green's four independent,
Speaker 5: four climates two hundred and six. So when we go
Speaker 5: right now to the current count Labor eighty seven, pet Trees,
Speaker 5: the other one that's fallen today with some certainty Coalition
Speaker 5: thirty eight.
Speaker 3: Look, I think they're going.
Speaker 5: To win probably three or four more, depending on how
Speaker 5: things go. Look over here at the moment, the Green's
Speaker 5: still on zero confirmed.
Speaker 3: I think they will.
Speaker 5: Win two at least at this stage, but nothing is
Speaker 5: actually confirmed. The other independent there it Tally Andrew g
Speaker 5: is set to win Claire. We're just seeing who might
Speaker 5: finish second or third. And that's the other interesting story
Speaker 5: I think about this, how many contests are turning into
Speaker 5: tight ones where we might see an independent of some
Speaker 5: flavor finishing top two. So Goldstein right now, and I'll
Speaker 5: go to that in a moment. You can see climates
Speaker 5: two hundred ahead in that Monash could be an independent
Speaker 5: and second Bean is an independent and second Bean in Canberra, Paul.
Speaker 3: That's the margin that Camber that Labour has.
Speaker 5: There we go to the next page, the next to
Speaker 5: a Liberal Labor contest, but Bradfield is obviously a Climate
Speaker 5: two hundred contest. Flinders could end up being Climate two
Speaker 5: hundred and second. Menzies is a mess and could have
Speaker 5: an Independent and Fremantle cap Hewlett running very close there
Speaker 5: as well. The next page I mentioned as well Andrew
Speaker 5: Clare and Independent. So this could be the other part
Speaker 5: of the story. The next election, when we get that pendulum,
Speaker 5: there's going to be a whole chunk.
Speaker 3: We'll see how big the cross Bench is.
Speaker 5: I think it will be a similar size, maybe even
Speaker 5: a little bit bigger or a similar size to that sixteen,
Speaker 5: but there'll be another whole number of seats where they'll
Speaker 5: be in the two candidate preferred if they run again
Speaker 5: next time around. So I think that's something really worth
Speaker 5: thinking about as we think about how much our sort
Speaker 5: of electoral system and someone has been upended. I wanted
Speaker 5: to go here, well here i Ama and Marie at Goldstein.
Speaker 5: I wanted to tell you why Goldstein has changed today. Essentially,
Speaker 5: Zoe Daniel thought she'd won last night. This is the
Speaker 5: margin right now at this stage we don't worry abot
Speaker 5: that match swing, and so on we go, who's leading,
Speaker 5: how many votes Zoe Daniel is at the moment about ninety.
Speaker 3: Votes ahead of Tim Wilson.
Speaker 5: The problem for her is the postal votes that are
Speaker 5: coming in right now. So here are the postal votes.
Speaker 5: This is what's come in so far. About ten thousand
Speaker 5: have come in two party preferred.
Speaker 3: Again, don't worry about the swing.
Speaker 5: There's a three thousand vote difference to Tim Wilson's advantage.
Speaker 5: On the postals, there will be about twenty thousand postal votes.
Speaker 5: Twenty seven thousand applications were issued. You know, we apply
Speaker 5: a rough for melody rate, not to boy your viewers,
Speaker 5: but there'll be about another ten thousand, so basically he'll
Speaker 5: go three thousand ahead last time around Zoe Daniel on
Speaker 5: the rest of the vote to come that's absent declaration.
Speaker 5: Pre Pole and Provisional only won by about six hundred.
Speaker 5: So I'm just going to look at one more booth
Speaker 5: to make sure it's still flowing that way. But I
Speaker 5: don't see a way back right now actually for Zoe Daniel,
Speaker 5: so just a little bit hesitant because of the way
Speaker 5: pre Pole and postals gone in this election, and they
Speaker 5: can be a bit acceptive early.
Speaker 3: But it looks like he'll clearly.
Speaker 5: Get in front and Zoe Dane you won't be able
Speaker 5: to make it back. So we're just pause and be
Speaker 5: a little bit wary because it's not going to change
Speaker 5: election right now, but it looks like that will be
Speaker 5: the one climate two hundred seat that will actually fall.
Speaker 5: The other really interesting one is the seat of Melbourne.
Speaker 5: So this has been a tricky one because the call
Speaker 5: by the AEC they have to pick before there's a
Speaker 5: single vote who will be the candidates, and they didn't
Speaker 5: actually initially pick Labor. Well it is Labor. Now look
Speaker 5: at this margin right now. Don't get carried away by
Speaker 5: this margin. It's very early on in this count in
Speaker 5: terms of the match two pp right now it's going
Speaker 5: to be a match, a much closer contest.
Speaker 3: So right now our system is thinking the projected tally.
Speaker 5: These are just raw numbers coming in, so it's a
Speaker 5: bit seat of the pants. The projected tally will have
Speaker 5: Adam ban On about fifty point five percent.
Speaker 3: In other words, it's far too early.
Speaker 5: So this is very early on the two party preferred
Speaker 5: and we just need more votes to come in have
Speaker 5: any sort of an idea where that contest has gone.
Speaker 5: So they're redoing account.
Speaker 1: Basically, can I just quickly ask about the pace of
Speaker 1: count in Melbourne, where again lots of places and lots
Speaker 1: of type places. Is it a slightly slower pace that's
Speaker 1: coming out of that city And is that because there's
Speaker 1: this particularly large number of people who might have been
Speaker 1: in Brisbane for magic round.
Speaker 6: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Well, when you're somewhere else, you have an absent vote,
Speaker 5: so that shouldn't affect it.
Speaker 3: You know, if you go off and you cast an absent.
Speaker 5: Vote, that just means the absent bucket is bigger. I
Speaker 5: have noticed today and I know some of these prepole
Speaker 5: booths are getting really big in Melbourne fifteen thousand and
Speaker 5: so on. So the issue is the bigger the booth
Speaker 5: along it is the count. We were waiting for one today.
Speaker 5: In fact, in mensies today, Paul and I thought that
Speaker 5: there was a possibility that might just get a little
Speaker 5: bit closer, and it has become today. This was four
Speaker 5: percent and five percent last night. It's come into one
Speaker 5: point eight percent. But on the current numbers, the postal
Speaker 5: catch up, you can see the gap between the two
Speaker 5: is a little bit less than three thousand, and that's
Speaker 5: going to be the problem for Keith Wallerhan, I just
Speaker 5: want to see one more batch of because my understanding
Speaker 5: is he ran a postal a direct mail campaign this
Speaker 5: time he didn't last time. Sometimes late that means they
Speaker 5: can break really well. I don't expect they will. I
Speaker 5: don't think he'll win that. And the problem at the
Speaker 5: moment is the way those postals are flowing. So think
Speaker 5: about that gap. Three thousand or so was the gap.
Speaker 5: You've got ten thousand postals in so far he has
Speaker 5: made up what thirteen hundred votes, So if there's there
Speaker 5: is eight thousand votes, thirteen hundred votes he's gaining. Actually
Speaker 5: that's quite interesting, So that's a better postal. There's actually
Speaker 5: more votes here. Then when I start the ball, so
Speaker 5: start bigger catch up. So I'll go and crange some
Speaker 5: more numbers. That's a bigger catch up than he was
Speaker 5: getting because the first four thousand he caught up about
Speaker 5: three hundred, So the next what four thousand, he's caught
Speaker 5: up more like a thousand.
Speaker 3: That could get him closer.
Speaker 5: Look, that won't breage the gap on those current numbers
Speaker 5: because it's not there's not a heap of postal in
Speaker 5: there that will get quite tight. So that will end
Speaker 5: up being the total two party preferred on this seat
Speaker 5: will end up being sat more like fifty point five
Speaker 5: at this rate, and he needs another sort of increase
Speaker 5: in post will be a competitive but I'll tell you what,
Speaker 5: I'm going to keep a eye on that one.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Can I also ask I've always wanted to do this.
Speaker 1: Can I ask to have a look at the seat
Speaker 1: of Bradfield, because again, you know that there's all sort
Speaker 1: of all the news websites, and then there's the data
Speaker 1: that you're getting the AAC. Your computer is going to
Speaker 1: be more powerful than my laptop. Right Apparently that's now
Speaker 1: under one thousand votes right now, it's assumed that that
Speaker 1: is running the Teel way. But again the Prepole and
Speaker 1: Postal conversation, if that's at around one thousand, that's interesting.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it is. Let's have a look.
Speaker 5: That's well, that's about eighteen hundred at the moment right now,
Speaker 5: eighty percent countered. This is always going to be just
Speaker 5: a case of what vote is to go. I don't
Speaker 5: think there'll be Prepole left let's double check. No, that's
Speaker 5: an EAV that's hearing assisted, so they tend to be
Speaker 5: you know, fifty votes. Postal is the main one left
Speaker 5: and absent. Absent can actually trend back towards climate two hundred.
Speaker 5: So you want a lead of five hundred if you're liberal. Okay,
Speaker 5: so seven thousand in trending pretty well. Fourteen hundred she's
Speaker 5: made up so far.
Speaker 3: I think that is going to be quite tight.
Speaker 5: So I'll go and see exactly how many postals from
Speaker 5: memory in Bradfield there would be enough to get Giselle
Speaker 5: Capterian back into the lead.
Speaker 3: Just then she needs the hope.
Speaker 5: To hang on when the absent come in, and I'll
Speaker 5: start to come in tomorrow and Tuesday. There's also funny
Speaker 5: votes called declaration pre pole that's when you vote early,
Speaker 5: not in your electorate, and provisional when you've got to
Speaker 5: prove who you are.
Speaker 3: So this is what these things can get down to
Speaker 3: later on.
Speaker 5: Provisional is very small, but absent can be a decent
Speaker 5: amount of votes fifteen hundred two thousand or so, so
Speaker 5: you can get a decent lead if they sort of
Speaker 5: break one way on them.
Speaker 1: This is amazing. It's like human human Google, human check GPT,
Speaker 1: where I can just ask Tom and Tom will do
Speaker 1: the work for us. I love it. I love it
Speaker 1: all right, let's because you've had a long time, so
Speaker 1: don't want to hold you for too much longer. But
Speaker 1: can you give us the quick sweep when it comes
Speaker 1: to the Senate because the question there is obviously labor
Speaker 1: is going to end up getting Like in Queensland it
Speaker 1: was they got remember one at one election, that'll end
Speaker 1: up clearly getting two Victoria. They could end up, you know,
Speaker 1: he be a little bit higher. Give us an idea
Speaker 1: about because basically the last spot, so we're looking here
Speaker 1: at your one nations or your family firsts or your trumpets.
Speaker 3: Look, I think the two.
Speaker 5: Most relevant things obviously who the makeup is, who goes
Speaker 5: out one nation will be interesting watch. But Labor effectively
Speaker 5: have twenty five to start with out of the ones
Speaker 5: we know they'll get here if they can make up three,
Speaker 5: they get to twenty eight and the Greens will get eleven.
Speaker 5: That would mean Labor and the Greens pass legislation by
Speaker 5: not talking to anyone else. I think that's probably the
Speaker 5: most relevant status. Like, so can labor make up three?
Speaker 5: So Queensland, top line here is how many were up.
Speaker 5: Bottom line is the quota, So you can already see
Speaker 5: labor makes up one there, that's simple two to the
Speaker 5: LNP one of the Greens. One nation's in a pretty
Speaker 5: good position to get that position and win it back.
Speaker 3: Courtesy of Malcolm Roberts.
Speaker 5: New South Wales is interesting now so far on these numbers,
Speaker 5: if they held, you'd say label will make up another
Speaker 5: one two point six to two quotas Liberal Nationals two
Speaker 5: Greens won, but Labor well ahead of one nation. But
Speaker 5: so far this amount thirty seven point five percent. That's
Speaker 5: well above what they're getting at a state house level,
Speaker 5: and the amount of voting here at the Senate is
Speaker 5: about thirty percent. In other words, the vote could actually
Speaker 5: drop off for Labor and we're we're not going to say, oh,
Speaker 5: you know, this is locked in.
Speaker 3: If these numbers end up like this, Labor would win one.
Speaker 5: But if it comes down then they get into a
Speaker 5: battle with one nation would be their problem. Liberal Nationals
Speaker 5: as well, they're not going to get above two. Obviously
Speaker 5: Perin Davy was third on the ticket, so the Deputy Nationals.
Speaker 3: Leader will lose her seat as well.
Speaker 5: South Australia and Malanowski's power perhaps is powering Labor here.
Speaker 3: So two are up two point six to two.
Speaker 5: They're a pretty good chance of keeping that because I
Speaker 5: think this is more representative of the sort of.
Speaker 3: Vote they're going to end up with in South Australia.
Speaker 3: So two will end up Liberal, one Green, two Labor.
Speaker 5: I think Labor would get the third at this stage
Speaker 5: over one nation.
Speaker 3: Again, wait to see though.
Speaker 5: Because if that gets a bit closer, if it's point
Speaker 5: four to five versus point five to five, you do
Speaker 5: often get minor parties preferencing and helping out.
Speaker 3: So Labor's in a decent position.
Speaker 5: Now we'll see where the vote goes Tasmania to finish
Speaker 5: with as well, Paul. So we're going to see two Labor,
Speaker 5: at least one Liberal, at least one Green, two more
Speaker 5: up for grabs.
Speaker 3: Where do they go.
Speaker 5: Labor could get one, Liberal could get one, Greens could
Speaker 5: get one or Jackie Lamby.
Speaker 3: But in other words, she's not assured right now.
Speaker 5: Of returning waiting for more vote, not calling this right now,
Speaker 5: but she'd be very vulnerable right there trying to win
Speaker 5: off point four to six given that relatively even spread elsewhere.
Speaker 3: So that will be a watch.
Speaker 5: I still think, you know, depending on how things go.
Speaker 5: She's been a pretty strong force in Tasmanian politics, so
Speaker 5: she's got that recognition when you get to that preference element,
Speaker 5: but not a strong position to be in right now,
Speaker 5: so we'll have to wait. They press a magic in
Speaker 5: the Senate in a few weeks when we find out everything.
Speaker 3: But we will get closer to knowing as we get
Speaker 3: more count in the next few days.
Speaker 1: Tom, that could be the favorite fifteen minutes I've done
Speaker 1: in fifteen years. I love that. I love the chat,
Speaker 1: I really do. Thank you, mate, Congrats again. I will
Speaker 1: see you all the day and we'll chat again later
Speaker 1: in the week. Thank you, Tom Connall. How good is he?
Speaker 1: How good is it? I'm telling you the ability to
Speaker 1: get all that picture and you're still seeing on the
Speaker 1: Sunday night, what's sort of being counter or maybe back
Speaker 1: maybe this way? I love it. I love it. We
Speaker 1: love the numbers of an election, regardless of which way
Speaker 1: they go. All right, quick break back with more. Let's
Speaker 1: get back into the final of the state of the race,
Speaker 1: because we know the race is over. What are the insights,
Speaker 1: what are the positive conversations, and let's talk about some
Speaker 1: polling mistakes, including what was being whispered into the liberal
Speaker 1: parties here. Want to see good? How Good's nerding out
Speaker 1: with your numbers out. That's what we should have called
Speaker 1: that segment. God love Tom Connall. All right, let's get
Speaker 1: into it right now, fellow number nerds. None of them
Speaker 1: cost Samaras, who congratulations to his organization, Red Bridge absolutely
Speaker 1: nailed the changes, the Democrat all of it right. That's
Speaker 1: a really hard thing to do. Congratulations to you and
Speaker 1: your colleagues. The wonderful Michael Kroger again, one of the
Speaker 1: millions that are disappointed with what's happened here. And we'll
Speaker 1: get into the future and all the rest of it here.
Speaker 1: But how are you the day after mate?
Speaker 7: Well, we've been here before, Paul is the answer to that.
Speaker 7: So incredibly disappointed, disappointed for some really good candidates and
Speaker 7: MPs who have lost, and very disappointed for Peter Dutton.
Speaker 7: But you saw the best of Peter Dutton a bit late,
Speaker 7: a bit late. His concession speak last night was what
Speaker 7: it doesn't it? I mean, I don't know, dun't all
Speaker 7: that well, to be honest, but what a class act
Speaker 7: he is. That was That was a that was a
Speaker 7: class performance by Peter Dutton. For goodness sake. You know
Speaker 7: the guy, the guy's an absolutely quality human being and
Speaker 7: you know regrettably we won't see him as prime minister,
Speaker 7: but he joins a long pantheon of people. It would
Speaker 7: have been great prime minister of this country.
Speaker 6: But that's the way they rule. It will turns mate.
Speaker 1: All right, let's get into again keeping a nerd out
Speaker 1: on some of the numbers here, because it was fairly
Speaker 1: obvious about whether the result was going to be the
Speaker 1: conversation of minority majority was the outside expectations then once
Speaker 1: it becomes clear majority and obviously there's a way past that. Now,
Speaker 1: was there a particular result or a seat that as
Speaker 1: an old school party guy and now the sort of
Speaker 1: external data guy where he went, wow, that's pretty big.
Speaker 1: Mine would be the labor result in Queensland.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's right correct. I mean our Casey's track was
Speaker 4: tracking those seats so like long moon forward, and it
Speaker 4: was showing pretty good numbers for Labor and I thought, look,
Speaker 4: it might be a data operation. But we thought no, no,
Speaker 4: there are our numbers. We're going to publish them. And
Speaker 4: when they foul, I thought, well, okay, geez, something's going
Speaker 4: on here.
Speaker 1: That's pretty big.
Speaker 4: And it's as Queensland seats that took me by surprise.
Speaker 4: Everything else was as I expected, you know, means's was
Speaker 4: going to because it was going to play out like
Speaker 4: I did in Melbourne and Deacon and Goldstink could go
Speaker 4: back to Tim Wilson and I think it will.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 4: And Labor was going to be okay in seats in Melbourne,
Speaker 4: which you know the College were hoping to get because
Speaker 4: we saw a very significant swing to labor in that stay.
Speaker 4: But it was Queensland that took me by surprise in
Speaker 4: a very big way.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean certainly. Again, you know, we know that
Speaker 1: when an independent gets re elected, get ready that they
Speaker 1: have had their feet in wet cement. They are there,
Speaker 1: all right. We saw with Wilkie in Tasmania, Sharky in
Speaker 1: South Australia, Catta in Queensland, and that is now the
Speaker 1: case when it comes to the reelection of the world
Speaker 1: all bar one of the teams. That Bradfield number is
Speaker 1: really interesting. Obviously. You know, if they get there, well
Speaker 1: that's on the way towards what people predicted. If they don't,
Speaker 1: we know that that's their second and massive crack at it.
Speaker 1: And their expectation was to grow the footprint. And if
Speaker 1: the footprint does retract either with Goldstein or the failure
Speaker 1: in Bradfield. It'll be really fascinating here. But I want
Speaker 1: to ask again the question of your cause, which is
Speaker 1: we know that generally speaking, fifty two forty eight, fifty
Speaker 1: three forty seven reality fifty five forty five. Is that
Speaker 1: a miss or that's the margin of error conversation.
Speaker 4: Yeah, so we're projecting in So's pole Bludger projecting that
Speaker 4: it will land on about fifty four.
Speaker 1: Okay, So basically yeah.
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, And so, I mean we had it at
Speaker 4: fifty three. It's about one point one percent out, and
Speaker 4: I think a couple of other pulses as well were
Speaker 4: within that space as well.
Speaker 1: That's pretty good, that's what you want. Yeah, well, well
Speaker 1: I was just going to say, I was just going
Speaker 1: to say, is that But also, Michael, the type of
Speaker 1: polling that I personally think is going to be more
Speaker 1: instructive for the next three years and probably for the
Speaker 1: future of the industry. Thank goodness for the national poll,
Speaker 1: but I don't care. I want to see a pole
Speaker 1: of twenty seats, the ones that swing and the back
Speaker 1: and forth. Because Okay, as we were talking about before
Speaker 1: the election, Michael was a just hardcore labor vote that
Speaker 1: was going up in hardcore labor seats. All right, But
Speaker 1: if you can see in the things that swing what's happening,
Speaker 1: as well as marry that in with the electoral role,
Speaker 1: you're going to get pretty damn close, don't you think, Michael,
Speaker 1: that that has to be the future of insight into
Speaker 1: the electric.
Speaker 6: Although it depends on how big the pole is.
Speaker 7: I mean, you see these rubbish poles occasionally where I
Speaker 7: mean Chris Bowen, there were some polls showing that he
Speaker 7: was on nineteen percent and his challenger was on forty percent.
Speaker 7: You see this push polls, these fake poles which are
Speaker 7: on small numbers by non credible sources. Take the view
Speaker 7: that in a federal seat, in the actual seat, I
Speaker 7: don't want to see a pole less than a thousand
Speaker 7: voters in a federal seat because that's one percent. It's
Speaker 7: not a huge number and it can change. But I
Speaker 7: prefer to see the bigger the poll, the better. If
Speaker 7: you're seeing a seat where the pole is one hundred
Speaker 7: or one hundred and fifty, just put it in the bin, mate,
Speaker 7: just take my notus.
Speaker 6: But it is very hard.
Speaker 7: It's very hard to poll individual seats, very hard.
Speaker 1: Yeah, there's also a couple of companies I could name,
Speaker 1: and because we'll probably be happy if I did. But
Speaker 1: if you know, you know, well you just go okay, radio,
Speaker 1: goodbye into the not even for the narrative conversation. I'm
Speaker 1: not going near any of that stuff, all right, So
Speaker 1: let's talk here as well, in and around polling fresh Water. Okay. Now,
Speaker 1: they were the most generous to the coalition, they published
Speaker 1: in the Financial Review, but they were providing the private
Speaker 1: insights to the Liberal Party. James Campbell's got a story
Speaker 1: this afternoon that some of the seat polling and the
Speaker 1: seat insight into Dixon was allegedly being held back from
Speaker 1: Peter Dunton. If that's the case, well again, political malpractice
Speaker 1: from the people who should always tell you what's going on.
Speaker 1: You don't want to be flying blind. You'll hit you'll
Speaker 1: hit the cliff. But they came out and have basically
Speaker 1: as a reputational exercise, defended themselves via the Financial Review tonight.
Speaker 1: In amongst other things, they congratulate Cosin Redbridge for getting
Speaker 1: it bang on the money, which I thought is a
Speaker 1: good thing to do. But this is what they say
Speaker 1: about the three things and the three reasons that they
Speaker 1: miss Labour's landslide. I'm going to read all three of
Speaker 1: them to you from the people behind the Freshwater Organization.
Speaker 1: I can get those up, guys. The first quote, first,
Speaker 1: polling appears to have overestimated labor defectors to the coalition,
Speaker 1: particularly those who voted no the voice referendum. Okay, just
Speaker 1: on this one point, Bob Hawk was simultaneously re elected
Speaker 1: multiple times while losing multiple referendums. The idea that the
Speaker 1: referendum equals the result in an election, there's no overlap.
Speaker 1: But as you can see there number two on what
Speaker 1: they had to say here. Second, for all the noise
Speaker 1: about preference flows being different in a way that was
Speaker 1: substantially benefit the coalition performance, that outcome simply did not materialize. Now,
Speaker 1: the one nation vote we're going to talk about this
Speaker 1: at some points was up around seven, eight, nine, even ten.
Speaker 1: Looks like at this stage we're sitting at about six
Speaker 1: and a bit. There was a little bit of junk
Speaker 1: news that was around because somebody quickly touched a couple
Speaker 1: of things that you know, the preference flows were running
Speaker 1: at ninety percent, and therefore if they're up, then the
Speaker 1: preference flows go well, that wasn't true. Third thing here,
Speaker 1: The third was the late swing. Given that all the
Speaker 1: polsters seem to have underestimated the swing to labor, and
Speaker 1: everyone's field work would have been over the days in
Speaker 1: that week, it strongly suggests dot dot that there was
Speaker 1: a late swing among soft voters. Well, surprise, surprise. I
Speaker 1: think many last minute undersided voters just go who do
Speaker 1: they think is going to win? But that's part of
Speaker 1: my theory. Michael can't help to talk about the data
Speaker 1: that's inside the room, the data that was being fed
Speaker 1: into the machine. Publicly, we saw that it was the
Speaker 1: most positive of the polling, but it also seems that
Speaker 1: the spin they were giving to the media, and I
Speaker 1: think in potentially the candidate was oh, mate, in fifteen seats,
Speaker 1: we're fifty to fifty. Where fifty to fifty Where the
Speaker 1: reality was it was fifty two forty eight, And they'd
Speaker 1: hoped the fifty two forty eight was their way, but it.
Speaker 6: Was so mate. Long experience tells me never to listen.
Speaker 7: To private polling, private party polling. A senior coalition person
Speaker 7: said to me during the election, the private polling is very,
Speaker 7: very good. I said, don't take any natives of it.
Speaker 7: I know, No, it's very we're very confident in this
Speaker 7: that and the other seat. And I said, I've actually
Speaker 7: seen the polling in writing. No any documents or any spreadsheets,
Speaker 7: anything on zoom or anything. No, I said, so some
Speaker 7: polsters just said it's very good and you've sallowed that
Speaker 7: and gone away. Yes, or so I said, because a
Speaker 7: lot of if you if you say a lot of
Speaker 7: a lot of reasons. But one of the reasons is
Speaker 7: that that out of high level meetings things need to
Speaker 7: leak out, and then they might leak to people like
Speaker 7: pests like James Campbell. He keeps writing this stuff with
Speaker 7: very good, very good columnists. By the way, well he's
Speaker 7: a brilliant writer, Campbell.
Speaker 6: But you know, so you.
Speaker 7: Always keep the the the confidence up of everyone. Now,
Speaker 7: what James has written tonight is is devastating.
Speaker 6: If they if they have kept.
Speaker 7: From Peter Dutton certain polling in his own seat and
Speaker 7: in Brisbane. And if that's that's true, that's Dunton would
Speaker 7: have every reason to be profoundly disappointed with that. But no,
Speaker 7: I'd never take any notice of private polly and don'ts
Speaker 7: and people that ring me and say what I think
Speaker 7: the private polling is saying I said I always say,
Speaker 7: don't take any notice of it.
Speaker 6: Just read cos or news poll or get it.
Speaker 7: Get a sense of consensus for these polls, and you
Speaker 7: know where the thing's going. Otherwise, what you're saying is
Speaker 7: that the private polling's right and every other pole is wrong.
Speaker 6: Well that's just nonsense.
Speaker 7: So the private polling isn't isn't terribly relevant, I don't
Speaker 7: think correct.
Speaker 1: Now I'm going to pull in Eddie maguire here causes
Speaker 1: response after the break, Stay wild, baby, stay wild, stay
Speaker 1: with us. But plenty more to talk about, including that
Speaker 1: organizational stuff that I said at the start of the show,
Speaker 1: and again, part of what we're going to do over
Speaker 1: the next few weeks, the next few months, and logically
Speaker 1: over the next three years is got a whole bunch
Speaker 1: of people on who will offer an answer to some
Speaker 1: questions that maybe we don't have the answer to. Doesn't
Speaker 1: mean they're all going to be right or all going
Speaker 1: to be wrong, but that's the point, not just to
Speaker 1: learn a lesson, but to be seen to be learning
Speaker 1: a lesson as well. Hot to see, all right, we're
Speaker 1: all in it. Thank you, appreciate that we're here. Of course,
Speaker 1: don't forget Meg and Kelly Wednesday night Nige or for
Speaker 1: Urs Tuesday night. And you know, I'm going to be
Speaker 1: sad face here, not the TikTok sad face that some
Speaker 1: people try to put on me. It's not real. By
Speaker 1: the way, is this state of the race. I've enjoyed
Speaker 1: these conversations and I look forward to versions of them
Speaker 1: in the next little while. I really do appreciate, brother
Speaker 1: of you, and it's lots of stuff and other things
Speaker 1: to do, but I appreciate cos Sam Marris and Michael
Speaker 1: Kroger you having these conversations. Because all right, enough of
Speaker 1: the hold over the Liberal Party private polling and why
Speaker 1: you think it was so wrong?
Speaker 4: Okay, So it's all about how you use the data
Speaker 4: and interpret the data. So I think, look, their polling
Speaker 4: would have been fine, but it's when you get served
Speaker 4: the numbers you've got to actually say to yourself, Okay,
Speaker 4: what's set in my piling. So if I'm polling one
Speaker 4: and I'm using a CADDY, which is what the two
Speaker 4: majors use, it's a process called the computer aided telephone interview,
Speaker 4: and that is a call center, a live call center
Speaker 4: rings into the electric Now, why, I know that trying
Speaker 4: to ring young people and get them to answer their
Speaker 4: phone on the maibile is very difficult, right, And so
Speaker 4: what it does is that under reports the vote of
Speaker 4: young people, and the types of young people that answer
Speaker 4: the phone are sometimes not reflective of that population.
Speaker 8: So you grab those numbers, you're going to upweight their
Speaker 8: short fall and you can content to make the whole sample.
Speaker 8: This happens right across the board. Both mayors do this
Speaker 8: now in one and that's going to be pretty accurate.
Speaker 8: Why Well, because it's an older electorate.
Speaker 4: Therefore the liberal polling approach would be quite sound. But
Speaker 4: you roll it out into a federalcy like Hawk in Melbourne'
Speaker 4: out of western suburbs where it's very young, you're going
Speaker 4: to underreport the labor vote because there are more labor
Speaker 4: young voters there than their own liberal and so as
Speaker 4: a strategist you've got to go, Okay, these numbers are
Speaker 4: telling me, you know we're fifty two. I'm going to
Speaker 4: take three or four percent of that because I know
Speaker 4: in my bones that's actually under reporting it. So your
Speaker 4: advice to the boss being done and would be a boss,
Speaker 4: this is what they're telling us but a caveat X.
Speaker 1: Well, and a perfect example, as you say about those
Speaker 1: demographic things, is that again at the electoral role, we
Speaker 1: showed this it was nine thousand more people under fifty
Speaker 1: than over fifty, So a perfect example in that seat
Speaker 1: where there is such a stark difference that, Yeah, the
Speaker 1: methodology falls apart, all right, Michael. I know the answer
Speaker 1: takes three years and probably much longer to actually answer.
Speaker 1: But what are the types of questions that you think
Speaker 1: the Libs need to ask themselves?
Speaker 7: So Mata I said you on Thursday night, there's one
Speaker 7: thing for certain out of this.
Speaker 6: Election, which is it will be we will be shocked
Speaker 6: at the result.
Speaker 7: And that's exactly what happened, although I wasn't able to
Speaker 7: tell you which way we'd be shocked, but there it is. Well,
Speaker 7: look I distill it down this way. This is simplistic,
Speaker 7: but it's largely right. You fight elections on your brand equity.
Speaker 7: You look at the sixteen election and the twenty five
Speaker 7: election very similar. Yeah, fought basically on one dominant theme,
Speaker 7: lots of sub themes. Trump and the nuclear one dominant
Speaker 7: theme in sixteen and twelve. How did labor go one
Speaker 7: dominant theme in the nineteen election. How did the Liberal
Speaker 7: Party go twenty two is different because the government have
Speaker 7: expired expired, right, it's been there nine years three Prime
Speaker 7: Minister's fourth term agenda that wasn't one.
Speaker 6: Et cetera.
Speaker 7: But three of the last four elections have been short
Speaker 7: on been fought on the party's major brand equities. Labour
Speaker 7: did tremendously well have it won ninety seats in thirteen.
Speaker 7: We almost lost in sixteen message there are elbow. Labour
Speaker 7: fought that on their number one brand equity. They revived
Speaker 7: that this time with a shocking smear campaign of lives
Speaker 7: and disinformation, but they got away with it.
Speaker 1: Correct.
Speaker 6: We fought the nineteen election on tax So what.
Speaker 3: Have you got to do.
Speaker 7: You've got to wrestle the debate and you've got to
Speaker 7: be good enough to wrestle the debate on your brand equity.
Speaker 7: If the elections have fought on the economy, debt, deficit,
Speaker 7: et cetera, on the fact that in the year's a
Speaker 7: head mate, the federal government are going to have to
Speaker 7: make massive cuts everywhere.
Speaker 6: Well, it's us all labor.
Speaker 7: If Labour keeps spending at this at this level, right,
Speaker 7: Debt's going from your debt's gone up, the gross death's
Speaker 7: gone up three hundred billion dollars from nine hundred to
Speaker 7: one point two trillion in the seven year period from
Speaker 7: twenty one to twenty two to twenty nine. Right, this
Speaker 7: bloke charmers is very reckless.
Speaker 6: So what's the message.
Speaker 7: The message is get back on to the reason people
Speaker 7: vote for the Little Party, which is your core brand equity,
Speaker 7: and not policies which are a bit unrelated to your
Speaker 7: core brand equity, because when you do that, you don't win.
Speaker 1: Because I know you've got an appearance with Peter Creedlin
Speaker 1: and plots, have plenty of other commitments. But can I
Speaker 1: get you back for the best part of a full
Speaker 1: hour in maybe the next couple of days because the
Speaker 1: answer is long and complicated to the very same question. Again,
Speaker 1: Thank you boys, I really do appreciate it. Thank you
Speaker 1: for talking you through the election. I look forward to
Speaker 1: again plenty more chats in the thanks very near future.
Speaker 1: That's our chef for tonight. We'll see you again tomorrow night.
Speaker 1: The Raw Reports Next