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Speaker 1: Today on Fear and Greed. Five years on from COVID,

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Speaker 1: house prices and the share market are up forty percent

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Speaker 1: and interest rates remain near twelve year highs. But are

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Speaker 1: we better off? Household power prices set to rise by

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Speaker 1: up to nine percent, and yet another delay for the

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Speaker 1: astronauts on the International Space Station trying to get home

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Speaker 1: nine months after they blasted off for a week long flight.

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Speaker 1: Plus the Aussie dollar hits a five year low against

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Speaker 1: the euro and pound sterling, and Canberra wants to incentivize

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Speaker 1: consumers to buy local products. Welcome to Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Daily business news for people who make their own decisions.

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Speaker 1: It is Friday, the fourteenth of March twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael Thompson and good morning Sean Aylmer.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, Michael Sewan.

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Speaker 1: The main story this morning, five years on from the

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Speaker 1: declaration of COVID. I can't believe it's five years to

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Speaker 1: be hodible with it. From the declaration of COVID as

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Speaker 1: a pandemic five years have past. House prices in a

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Speaker 1: have surged by forty percent. The share market has risen

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Speaker 1: by the same amount, which is incredible. Interest rates have

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Speaker 1: tumbled to record lows and then twelve year highs, and

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Speaker 1: the way we work has changed, maybe forever. So.

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Speaker 2: The World Health Organization declared COVID nineteen a global pandemic

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Speaker 2: on the eleventh of March twenty twenty. Most of us

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Speaker 2: didn't know then, but in the past five years, I

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Speaker 2: think it's fair to say it's changed the way the

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Speaker 2: economy works, how we invest, how we work. In fact,

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Speaker 2: started with the housing market. Initially, home values fell, then

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Speaker 2: surged until twenty twenty two, and they dropped again before rising.

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Speaker 2: According to core Logic, house prices are up thirty eight percent,

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Speaker 2: adding approximately two hundred and twenty seven thousand to the

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Speaker 2: median dwelling value. That's about double the pace of the

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Speaker 2: previous five years. So it's been a really hot housing market.

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Speaker 2: Over the past five years. House prices have risen at

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Speaker 2: twice the pace of units now, wages of growth standing

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Speaker 2: and surge. Last financial year, wages growth is up less

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Speaker 2: than twenty percent over that past five year period. That

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Speaker 2: is certainly making housing less affordable. Also, in the economy,

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Speaker 2: we've had very low interest rates followed by the fastest

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Speaker 2: lift in rates ever, with a cash rate hitting a

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Speaker 2: twelve year high and we're still near those levels. The

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Speaker 2: growth rate surged after COVID, but in the past couple

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Speaker 2: of years economic growth has really coming below the long

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Speaker 2: term trend, and pretty much thanks to those high interest rates,

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Speaker 2: while the unemployment rate has fallen to levels I don't

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Speaker 2: think we thought was possible.

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Speaker 1: It's such an interesting exercise taking a five year view

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Speaker 1: of how things have changed across this period. What about

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Speaker 1: investment markets and particularly equities.

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Speaker 2: Well, the S and p ASX two hundred is up

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Speaker 2: forty percent over the past five years. What I think

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Speaker 2: is really interesting about that that's pretty much the same

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Speaker 2: as the housing market. Now. Of course you get paid

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Speaker 2: dividends when you hold the Aussie stocks and imputation, so broadly,

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Speaker 2: a million dollars in the housing market and a million

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Speaker 2: dollars in equity market, you would have done better in

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Speaker 2: equity markets because you would have got those dividends. Tech

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Speaker 2: stocks have really boomed. In fact, the Tech index is

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Speaker 2: at one hundred and fifty percent since March twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: The financial index has doubled. It's up one hundred percent.

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Speaker 2: Less impressive. The consumer staples index has gone backwards in

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Speaker 2: the past five years. So I think Woolies and coals

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Speaker 2: either too big. In the consumer staples, healthcare stocks they

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Speaker 2: haven't done much, Utilities haven't done much, while materials, including

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Speaker 2: the big miners, they did really well until about the

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Speaker 2: middle of twenty twenty one, but since then they've dropped

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Speaker 2: so all. In all markets, investment markets, particularly equity markets,

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Speaker 2: have actually done pretty well.

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Speaker 1: What about the way we work, Sean, Has that really

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Speaker 1: changed forever? Because if we were having this conversation two

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Speaker 1: years ago, I would have said, Yep, it is never

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Speaker 1: going back to the way it was. It feels like things.

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Speaker 2: Are hard to measure. It's so hard to measure the

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Speaker 2: fact that in the US they've ordered all the bureaucrats

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Speaker 2: back to the office. Peter Dutton is one of his

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Speaker 2: election campaign slogans or commitments, has said we'll get the

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Speaker 2: federal public service back to the office. That suggests that

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Speaker 2: it probably has changed forever because people that are working

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Speaker 2: from home, they're not in the office five days a week.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think it's changed forever. I really do. Well.

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Speaker 1: Especially, it does feel like the default setting now is

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Speaker 1: some kind of hybrid arrangement. Yeah, right, at the very least, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: some kind of work from home part of the week

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Speaker 1: working on I think that's right, and that in itself

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Speaker 1: is a change. Yes, all right, let's park all the

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Speaker 1: workplace naval gazing, sean local markets. How do they finish up? Yesterday?

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Speaker 2: Yes, and p ASX two hundred closed down half a

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Speaker 2: percent to seven and forty nine points. That's another seven

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Speaker 2: month low. It was a tough day for the energy

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Speaker 2: compani ze. Price of coal heads south and investment analysts

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Speaker 2: downgrade their outlooks for those companies. Yan Coal and New

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Speaker 2: Hope white Haven all among the worst performers of the

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Speaker 2: top twenty stocks yesterday. The flip side the gold stocks,

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Speaker 2: benefiting from a jump in the price of the precious

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Speaker 2: metal to near record highs. Broad Bay selling everywhere. The

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Speaker 2: big banks were sold off, so to the big miners.

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Speaker 2: Retailers were mixed. Some of the textocks probably did a

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Speaker 2: bit better. In corporate news, haulage companies Silk Logistics plunged

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Speaker 2: twenty three percent after the competition watchdog greates concerns over

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Speaker 2: steved Or DP World's takeover bid.

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Speaker 1: What's happening with the Aussie dollar? Is there any appreciation

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Speaker 1: against the US dollar?

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Speaker 2: Oh? Who cares? Michael? Who cares about the US dollar?

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Speaker 1: Come on, hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on,

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Speaker 1: hang on. This doesn't have anything to do with the

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Speaker 1: fact that you are planning a trip later this year,

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Speaker 1: as you are heading not to the US, you're heading

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Speaker 1: to Europe.

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Speaker 2: Well look, I mean, you know, the Aussie dollars around

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Speaker 2: sixty three US and same as always. I think it

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Speaker 2: is time we start talking about the euro and the

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Speaker 2: pounds earling just a little bit more go on, Lowland,

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Speaker 2: summer coming up, all that sort of carry on. So

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Speaker 2: do you have the good news of the bad news?

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Speaker 1: Give us the good news?

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Speaker 2: First?

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Speaker 1: No bad news?

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Speaker 2: Bad news? Well, the aud euro au do pound sterling

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Speaker 2: about a five year low. Anyone foolish enough to be

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Speaker 2: going to those regions in August? August specific Yeah, not great.

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Speaker 2: The good news though, in the last couple of days

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Speaker 2: it has bounced to touch, but still trading round five

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Speaker 2: year lows. So basically, one Aussie dollar will buyero point

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Speaker 2: five eight point five eight euros. What's even more depressing,

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Speaker 2: one Assie dollar doesn't even get your fifty pence anymore.

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Speaker 1: Oh, you are going to have such an expensive trick.

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Speaker 2: So the whole two to one, which you'd always outrage

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Speaker 2: when your pound was two to one. Well, it's worse

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Speaker 2: than two to one.

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Speaker 1: You didn't have to cut your trip short just to

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Speaker 1: come back here and make some more money.

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Speaker 2: Yes, I mean the good news is that a week

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Speaker 2: dollar helps the local economy. But I don't care.

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Speaker 1: I love that you just tacked that on as an afterthought.

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Speaker 1: Where's the economy?

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Speaker 2: Is good?

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Speaker 1: But what about my holiday?

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Speaker 2: That's right? I mean, perhaps we should go to Japan

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Speaker 2: because you know the end everyone went seemingly went skiing

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Speaker 2: in Japan over the northern winter, and that's because the

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Speaker 2: ying is so weak against the.

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Speaker 1: I'm going to Japan about here we go. It's not

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Speaker 1: for another nine or ten months.

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Speaker 2: But are you skiing?

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Speaker 1: Yes? Yes, we will be.

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Speaker 2: Where are you going to Japan? Thanks?

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Speaker 1: I have not done a great deal of the planning myself.

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Speaker 2: The funny thing is my brother has been in touch

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Speaker 2: with me and said, do you guys want to come

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Speaker 2: to Japan skiing next January? Oh?

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Speaker 1: Really?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: When we could be that together?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Fear and hang on, hang on, fear and on the snow.

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Speaker 1: That's all right, sounds like a tax reduction, all right?

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Speaker 1: The rest of international market sean.

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Speaker 2: Not a lock going on. Brent Klude seventy one US

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Speaker 2: dollars a barrel Bitcoin heading back towards eighty four one

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Speaker 2: thousand US dollars and outs.

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Speaker 1: Great. Do you coming up after the show? You're speaking

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Speaker 1: with Nick Birch of Birch and Co.

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Speaker 2: Yes, all about culture and why it matters for investors.

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Speaker 2: We talk about big companies like wise teach Global. We

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Speaker 2: talk about small companies and startups where they don't get

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Speaker 2: the culture right and just the fact that not having

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Speaker 2: the right culture can trigger financial negatives in the future.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. And Nick does not mince words.

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Speaker 2: He doesn't, He just tells you exactly.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, it is coming up after the show. It's a

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Speaker 1: great interview. We'll be back in a moment with the

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Speaker 1: rest of the day's business news shown. Power prices or

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Speaker 1: on the rise with Bill's next financial years set to

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Speaker 1: jump by up to nine percent for some customers in

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Speaker 1: New South Wales, Queensland and South Australia.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so New South Wales is likely to get hit

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Speaker 2: with that now, but if you live in Victoria you

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Speaker 2: might end up paying not much more at all. Benchmark

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Speaker 2: prices for residential electricity supply will increase between two and

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Speaker 2: a half percent and eight point nine percent starting from

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Speaker 2: July one for small business customers four point two percent

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Speaker 2: to eight point two percent. The reason the rising costs

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Speaker 2: of poles and wires, think infrastructure and volatile prices is

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Speaker 2: due to coal power station outages. They're the main reasons

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Speaker 2: the four prices are ruled on by the Australian Energy Regulator.

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Speaker 2: They affect about ten percent of households directly, but the

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Speaker 2: bulk of the market really gets hit by these prices

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Speaker 2: because it is such an influential player that others tend

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Speaker 2: to follow it. What you can do and Energy Minister

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Speaker 2: Chris Bowen said this yesterday is shop around, so you

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Speaker 2: can get discounts if you shop around, but it's a

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Speaker 2: fairly regulated industry so you don't get really deep discounts. No.

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Speaker 1: This next one's interesting, Sean, and I've been thinking about

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Speaker 1: this as to how this would work. Australians will be

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Speaker 1: incentivized to buy locally made products after time twenty five

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Speaker 1: percent US tariffs were imposed on aluminium and steel exports.

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Speaker 2: Yes So asked if Australian should boycott US goods. The

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister Anthony Alberanzi said the budget, which will be

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Speaker 2: delivered in just under two weeks will include extra support

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Speaker 2: for a buy Australia campaign. That's what we know. He

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Speaker 2: went on to urge Australians to buy Australian. He told

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Speaker 2: the ABC Radio that's the one way consumers can help

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Speaker 2: kind of fight against the tariffs. He again said those

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Speaker 2: tariff's imposed by the US twenty five percent on steel

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Speaker 2: and aluminium are very disappointing, and the government is continuing

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Speaker 2: to try and it's not negotiating an exemption. It's continuing

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Speaker 2: to try to negotiate an exemption. It's emerged that Albanzi

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Speaker 2: did try and ring Trump, but Trump just wouldn't take

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Speaker 2: the call.

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Speaker 1: Basically, how about of those incentives were Like, the only

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Speaker 1: way I can see it working would really be kind

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Speaker 1: of through tax kind of offsets or something if you

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Speaker 1: are buying Australian products as a business, for instance individual consumers.

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Speaker 2: But even that I think would be very hard to manage.

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Speaker 2: I mean, mostly these sorts of things turned into buy

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Speaker 2: Australia campaigns. So money's went to encourage consumers to buy

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Speaker 2: Australian and you have that Australian sticker on your yeah,

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Speaker 2: big beans.

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Speaker 1: It's more marketing than it is anything else. Okay, the

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Speaker 1: fallout right from the tariff's decision, it just keeps going.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it does. I mean there's political angle, so yes,

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Speaker 2: both parties are claiming different things in this. Prime Minister

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Speaker 2: Anthony Albernezi said that Opposition leader Peter Dutton is a

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Speaker 2: cheer squad for Donald Trump. That's came after done said

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Speaker 2: the coalition would have secured an exemption from the tariffs,

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Speaker 2: and no one has secured an exemption from tariffs yet,

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Speaker 2: but that was Dutton's line. For his part, Dunton pushed

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Speaker 2: the importance of the Orchestra relationship. There's also a geo

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Speaker 2: political angle. Europe Canada have quickly retaliated to the steel

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Speaker 2: and Alimini tariffs by imposing their own levees on US goods.

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Speaker 2: Australian politicians the UK has bit the same, even the

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Speaker 2: head of Westpac, yes, say a guy called Anthony Miller.

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Speaker 2: They've all come out and said let's just hold back.

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Speaker 2: We don't really need to put tariff's on US goods

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Speaker 2: quite yet. There's also the response from the US now.

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Speaker 2: The Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik called out Australia for criticism yesterday,

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Speaker 2: accusing US of subsidizing cheap aluminum exports.

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Speaker 1: Consumer related stocks which did pretty well early in the year,

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Speaker 1: leaving the market lower with fears of an economic downturn

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Speaker 1: hitting a lot of companies.

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Speaker 2: So do you know of these consumer discretionary stocks, which

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Speaker 2: is the big daddy? I just wanted to say the term.

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Speaker 1: We have talked about this. You are not allowed to

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Speaker 1: say the term big daddy in the studio or anywhere

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Speaker 1: around ever.

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Speaker 2: Right, all right, Where's Farmers the big kahuna?

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Speaker 1: Don't think that's any better?

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Speaker 2: Where's farm the numero uno consumer discretionary stock in terms

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Speaker 2: of value? Where's far one percent drop yesterday, but it's

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Speaker 2: down about thirteen percent since its peak less than four

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Speaker 2: weeks ago. Aristocrat Leisure that's next on the list in

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Speaker 2: terms of size for consumer discretionary stocks, biggest marketers in

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Speaker 2: the US. Fear is the recession there hit Aristocrats share

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Speaker 2: price down fifteen percent. JB High Fi. Everyone loves JB

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Speaker 2: High Fi share. I mean, investors have loved it for

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Speaker 2: years and years. It's down fifteen percent in less than

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Speaker 2: four weeks. You can throw in Harvey Norman, Guzman, flight Center,

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Speaker 2: Corporate travel Management, and all this is going on despite

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Speaker 2: interest rates in a downward trend, so you would think

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Speaker 2: consumer discretionary stocks should do better, but they're really flipped.

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Speaker 1: I want to make mention of this one. There were

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Speaker 1: three new boss announcements yesterday. We had former Woolies boss

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Speaker 1: Brad Banducci taking over ticketing Group TG. Acting nine CEO.

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Speaker 1: Matt Stanton has finally been confirmed as the entertainment group's

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Speaker 1: full time boss after acting for quite a while, and

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Speaker 1: billionaire Scott Farquhar will become Chair of the Tech Council.

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Speaker 2: So Banducci is considered a successful chief executive of Woolies,

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Speaker 2: or at least he was until he stormed off the

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Speaker 2: set of Four Corners.

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Speaker 1: It's unfortunate that kind of thing, right, because it really

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Speaker 1: does color his entire career.

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Speaker 2: Almost so, I think Brad Banducci was a really good

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Speaker 2: boss of Woolies. Now, lots of stuff happened, and there's

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Speaker 2: inquiries and regulatory proves into Woolies and colors on this

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Speaker 2: sort of stuff. But I think Brad Banducci was a

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Speaker 2: good boss. It's just that we're all going to remember

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Speaker 2: him for the Four Corners thing. Is Stanton, Matt Stanton.

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Speaker 2: He joined nine in twenty twenty two chief strategy Officer

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Speaker 2: acting CEO. But you know what we're going to remember

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Speaker 2: Matt Stanton for was you know the story about the

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Speaker 2: kid being attacked at Manly Beach in Sydney and bystanders,

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Speaker 2: This couple who were bystanders came and protected this fourteen

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Speaker 2: year old child from being attacked by a group of kids.

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Speaker 2: Well that bystander was Matt Stanton.

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Speaker 1: Isn't his wife?

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Speaker 2: That is awesome, that's admirable, it's absolutely admirable. But when

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Speaker 2: I say Matt stand I think of that. When I

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Speaker 2: say Brad Bendercci, I think it's totally unfair because obviously

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Speaker 2: there's skills way beyond that. Well, Scott Farquhar, what I

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Speaker 2: think about him? Rich for riches to Australian. He is

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Speaker 2: replacing Robin Denholme as chair for the Tech Council. It's

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Speaker 2: a lobby group and Robin Demhome, of course is the

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Speaker 2: chair of TESLA. She's the one who is supposed to

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Speaker 2: be keeping Ill and Musk in control. Maybe she hasn't

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Speaker 2: got time to do the Tech Council job.

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Speaker 1: That sounds like a full time job.

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Speaker 2: Yep, yep, a lot of time. Yeah, so there I

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Speaker 2: think of Well maybe not actually Scott Farquhar, but certainly

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Speaker 2: Robin Denholme I think of rad elond mask Oh.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, turning to international news now, the Kremlin says it

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Speaker 1: will review details from Washington about a proposal for a

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Speaker 1: thirty day ceasefire in Ukraine before responding, while the US

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Speaker 1: Secretary of State Marco Rubio hopes a deal will be

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Speaker 1: struck within days.

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Speaker 2: As Moscow considers the planned, President Vladimir Putin, dressed in

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Speaker 2: military fatigues, made a surprise visit to Russia's Curse region

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Speaker 2: for the first time since Ukrainian troops captured part of

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Speaker 2: it last year. Now back to the peace talks, Marco

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Speaker 2: Rubio said the US is hoping for a positive response

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Speaker 2: and that if the answers know, that will tell Washington

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Speaker 2: a lot about the Kremlin's true intentions. Associated Press is

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Speaker 2: reporting that Russia has presented Washington with a list of

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Speaker 2: demands for a deal to end the Ukraine War and

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Speaker 2: reset relations with the US. Specifics aren't clear, but it's

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Speaker 2: understood they include no NATO membership for Kiev, recognition of

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Speaker 2: Russia's claim to Crimea and for Ukrainian provinces, and an

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Speaker 2: agreement that foreign troops not be deployed in Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: Finally, sean spare thought for International Space Station astronauts Butch

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Speaker 1: Wilmore and Sonny Williams, who went to space in June

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Speaker 1: last year for one week mission. It was one week

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Speaker 1: on paper. They still haven't been brought home yet. SpaceX

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Speaker 1: has delayed the launch of a mission now that would

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Speaker 1: have transported them home.

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Speaker 2: So NASA and SpaceX said the launch was stood down

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Speaker 2: because of an issue with the ground equipment used to

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Speaker 2: support the flight. Even the fact if you're up there

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Speaker 2: and so there's an issue down here, that's you know,

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Speaker 2: you don't hear about it. No, it's kind of like

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Speaker 2: when you're in the plane and we're just doing an

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Speaker 2: engineering check.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, no, don't tell me. Just just deal with

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Speaker 1: it and let me know what it's fixed.

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Speaker 2: The delay came less than an hour before the scheduled

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Speaker 2: launch time. There was a crew already seated in the

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Speaker 2: capsule to Americans, one Japanese, one Russian cosmonaut. At least

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Speaker 2: it's only a short delay, so the launch is now

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Speaker 2: scheduled for tomorrow Australian time. Let's hope they get there

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Speaker 2: and Sonny and Butch can get home to their families.

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Speaker 1: I was reading an interview with them, they talked from

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Speaker 1: space a few days back, and they're basically saying, look,

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Speaker 1: I think the delay is probably harder on our families

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Speaker 1: than it is on us. We're in space, we get

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Speaker 1: to have fun, you get to do all kinds of

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Speaker 1: experiments and things. It's a great place to be. It's

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Speaker 1: tougher on the families at home. What a great kind

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Speaker 1: of spirit to maintain?

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Speaker 2: Do they do want to be? Practically, have they had

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Speaker 2: a shower? Nex?

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Speaker 1: Yes, they've got washing facilities, but a shower maybe not

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Speaker 1: a full show.

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Speaker 2: Where with the watergate, who'd go up all around?

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Speaker 1: He just float around in little bubbles. Anyway, don't forget

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Speaker 1: to download the iss spot app and favorite Yeah, check

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Speaker 1: it all the time, and you can give them away

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Speaker 1: as they sail overhead. Up next is a Fear and

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Speaker 1: Greed Daily interview with Nick Birch of Birch and Co.

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Speaker 1: And it's coming up in the Fear and grad playlist

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Speaker 1: on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed dot com dot au.

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Speaker 1: Thank you very much, Sean, Thank you, Michael. It is Friday,

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Speaker 1: the fourteenth of March twenty twenty five. Make sure you

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Speaker 1: following the podcast and please join us online on LinkedIn, Instagram,

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Speaker 1: x TikTok and Facebook. Michael Thompson That was fear and greed.

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Speaker 1: Have a great day.