WEBVTT - How this victory will change Anthony Albanese

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<v Speaker 1>So, Karen, welcome back to seven AM. It's great to

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<v Speaker 1>have you on the show.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks, Ruby, it's great to be back.

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<v Speaker 1>Karen Middleton has known Anthony Albanesi for more than thirty years,

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<v Speaker 1>since before he entered parliament. She's watched his rise and

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<v Speaker 1>documented the moments that have shaped the leader he is today.

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<v Speaker 1>And Karen says that this election is going to change

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<v Speaker 1>Anthony Albanesi in ways that will change the country too.

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<v Speaker 2>It's different winning the second time, and when you win

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<v Speaker 2>a second time with the majority as massive as this landslide,

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<v Speaker 2>really is what we're talking about. I think that has

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<v Speaker 2>an impact on a leader, how they think and what

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<v Speaker 2>they might be prepared to do.

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<v Speaker 1>From Schwartz Media, I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven AM Today,

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<v Speaker 1>author of Albanesi Telling It Straight. Karen Middleton on why

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<v Speaker 1>Anthony Albanesi won and what the next three years of

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<v Speaker 1>Labor government will look like. It's Monday, May five. So

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<v Speaker 1>this election is obviously a huge and historic moment for

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<v Speaker 1>Anthony Alberzi. He's been returned to government in a landslide,

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<v Speaker 1>one of the best results that a Labor leader has

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<v Speaker 1>ever achieved. You have followed Alberese's career for a very

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<v Speaker 1>long time. You wrote his biography. So tell me, are

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<v Speaker 1>you surprised by the strength of his victory over the weekend.

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<v Speaker 2>I haven't talked to anyone who isn't surprised about just

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<v Speaker 2>how emphatic that victory has been.

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<v Speaker 1>Wow, what about this?

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<v Speaker 2>This morning?

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<v Speaker 1>He is waking up to a healthy, very healthy, eighty

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<v Speaker 1>eight seat majority government. Just talk us through how expected

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<v Speaker 1>was this result? I mean, slightly expected, but not by

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<v Speaker 1>this massive margin?

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<v Speaker 2>No, the results? How do you reflect on what happened

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<v Speaker 2>last night? It's still sinking in, David. I mean, this

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<v Speaker 2>was beyond even our most optimistic expectations. It's much bigger

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<v Speaker 2>than I expected it to be. I was quite surprised

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<v Speaker 2>at just how many seats they've won and just what

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<v Speaker 2>a state the Liberal Party has been left in.

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<v Speaker 1>And three years ago so in twenty twenty two, we

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<v Speaker 1>were actually both at the Labor headquarters when he won

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<v Speaker 1>that first election. But to get returned to government with

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<v Speaker 1>this kind of majority is unusual, isn't it?

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<v Speaker 2>Yes?

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<v Speaker 1>It is.

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<v Speaker 2>If you sink back to saying the John Howard victory

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<v Speaker 2>in nineteen ninety six and then the one in nineteen

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<v Speaker 2>ninety eight, he almost lost that second election, it was

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<v Speaker 2>very close, and this time Anthony Albernezi has dramatically increased

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<v Speaker 2>his majority. So that is quite a different circumstance to

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<v Speaker 2>the one we saw in twenty twenty two, and I

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<v Speaker 2>think it does something to a leader winning a second

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<v Speaker 2>time again. If you think back to John Howard, you've

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<v Speaker 2>got to send from him, and I've got the sense

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<v Speaker 2>a little bit from Anthony Albanesi as well, that there's

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<v Speaker 2>a little tiny niggling thing in the back of their

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<v Speaker 2>minds that when they win that first victory that says

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<v Speaker 2>that maybe it wasn't just them, Maybe it was because

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<v Speaker 2>the other side had been in for a long time,

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<v Speaker 2>the electric was sick of the other guy, as it

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<v Speaker 2>was in both cases, and so it isn't really until

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<v Speaker 2>they win that second victory that they feel like that

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<v Speaker 2>is an endorsement of them and their leadership and their policies,

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<v Speaker 2>their strategy. And so I think that's what you see

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<v Speaker 2>now with Anthony Albanesi.

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<v Speaker 1>And his reelection chances looked very different at the beginning

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<v Speaker 1>of this year. There were several news polls that had

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<v Speaker 1>the Coalition in the lead fifty one to forty nine.

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<v Speaker 1>Back in January so do you think that those polls

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<v Speaker 1>they were an accurate representation of how people felt about

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<v Speaker 1>Anthony Albanesi at the beginning of the year, and if so,

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<v Speaker 1>what changed for him.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, I think there were an accurate reflection in so

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<v Speaker 2>far people were really fatigued with the cost of living crisis.

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<v Speaker 2>They felt that the government had been a little bit

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<v Speaker 2>adrift and that things weren't changing. They weren't getting the

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<v Speaker 2>attention and the support that they felt that they needed,

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<v Speaker 2>and you'd seen the opposition really being able to capitalize

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<v Speaker 2>on that through last year and put the government on

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<v Speaker 2>the defensive, so that you know, really we came into

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<v Speaker 2>the new year with the opinion polls suggesting that a

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<v Speaker 2>coalition upset victory was a real possibility. I think the

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<v Speaker 2>Prime Minister had had some trouble communicating clearly last year,

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<v Speaker 2>and what happened early this year is that he and

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<v Speaker 2>his office really focused very very strongly on the messages

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<v Speaker 2>that they wanted to send in the lead up to

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<v Speaker 2>this election, and they worked on that very intensely, and

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<v Speaker 2>I think what you have seen in the campaign period

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<v Speaker 2>is the results of that work. He has managed to

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<v Speaker 2>turn those polls around by being very very disciplined with

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<v Speaker 2>the messaging, making sure that what they had was a

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<v Speaker 2>program to offer the Australian people that was forward looking,

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<v Speaker 2>that was optimistic, that was centered around things that Australians

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<v Speaker 2>cared about, and health really was the main anchor to

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<v Speaker 2>their policy platform offering for this election, and to connect

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<v Speaker 2>all of that up to easing the cost of living

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<v Speaker 2>burdens on Australians. And I think there were a number

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<v Speaker 2>of things that happened even as recently as throughout the campaign,

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<v Speaker 2>not re least Donald Trump and the Wavy Opposition ran

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<v Speaker 2>their campaign that contributed, but there was a change in

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<v Speaker 2>the way Labor and the Prime Minister and his team

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<v Speaker 2>approached things that meant that they started turning those polls

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<v Speaker 2>around right as they came into the campaign period.

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<v Speaker 1>So Labor clearly has a mandate now for the next

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<v Speaker 1>three years, and as many people are speculating with a

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<v Speaker 1>majority like this for the term after that as well potentially.

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<v Speaker 1>So what do you think that thy Albanezi is going

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<v Speaker 1>to do with that?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it's an interesting question, isn't it. Because he has

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<v Speaker 2>a huge mandate, and he has a huge backbench, and

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<v Speaker 2>he has the security of a huge backbench and that

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<v Speaker 2>means that he's got a lot of political capital he

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<v Speaker 2>can afford to do things be perhaps a bit more bold.

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<v Speaker 2>That was one of the criticisms that his own traditional

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<v Speaker 2>constituents made of their Prime minister and his government, that

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<v Speaker 2>it was too cautious and wasn't willing to do enough

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<v Speaker 2>in the old traditional labor style. But I think one

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<v Speaker 2>of the things that Anthony Alberanzi will be very mindful

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<v Speaker 2>of is that there's certainly a message from the electorate

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<v Speaker 2>that you have to take people with you, So I

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<v Speaker 2>don't think you want to start floating policy ideas that

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<v Speaker 2>haven't been properly ventilated with the public. Having said that,

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<v Speaker 2>there are things that he has talked about as desirable

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<v Speaker 2>objectives and achievements for labor, and I think when he

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<v Speaker 2>was asked during one of the debates in the campaign period,

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<v Speaker 2>what you know his great legacy or priority might be,

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<v Speaker 2>he talked about universal childcare. Mister Albanezi, what's the one

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<v Speaker 2>big change you'd like to be remembered for. Affordable childcare

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<v Speaker 2>is one of the things that we're doing.

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<v Speaker 1>We've already did put measures in place.

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<v Speaker 2>So there'll be things like that that he has spoken

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<v Speaker 2>about as an ambition that you might see him pursue

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<v Speaker 2>more vigorously in a second term.

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<v Speaker 1>And you mentioned earlier you talked about how winning a

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<v Speaker 1>second time changes politicians. You know Anthony Albanezi, well, how

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<v Speaker 1>do you think that this will change him?

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<v Speaker 2>The Prime Minister's speech was a fascinating demonstration and of

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<v Speaker 2>the difference in three years, and the word that really

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<v Speaker 2>stuck with me was confident. You know, he mentioned that

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<v Speaker 2>in his speech and I think that is what you

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<v Speaker 2>will see from this Prime minister now, less defensiveness, more confidence. Moreover,

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<v Speaker 2>since that his strategy was rewarded and endorsed, that his

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<v Speaker 2>personal approach, his role in the campaign, his public presentation,

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<v Speaker 2>which we in the media have criticized so much and

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<v Speaker 2>some of his own colleagues have as well, has improved.

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<v Speaker 2>And I think the confidence you will see in Anthony

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<v Speaker 2>Alberanezi is what's going to be very interesting to watch

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<v Speaker 2>because that will dictate how much courage he has and

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<v Speaker 2>what kinds of things he might be prepared to do

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<v Speaker 2>with this huge mandate. And he'll be thinking, I don't

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<v Speaker 2>know necessarily about legacy in terms of his own personal impact,

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<v Speaker 2>but he'll be thinking about what he can do to

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<v Speaker 2>change Australia in a permanent way, to make it a

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<v Speaker 2>better place for everyone who lives there, and he's particularly

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<v Speaker 2>focused on the people who do it the hardest. I'm

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<v Speaker 2>sure he'll be thinking of his late mentor Tom Urn,

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<v Speaker 2>from whom he learned all of his political skills, and

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<v Speaker 2>I think he will want to be thinking that when

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<v Speaker 2>he leaves politics. However far away that is that he

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<v Speaker 2>has made a change to Australia and he's been given

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<v Speaker 2>the opportunit unity with this huge victory, to really start

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<v Speaker 2>to recraft some things in Australian maybe to make it

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<v Speaker 2>a fairer and better place. And I think that's going

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<v Speaker 2>to be a fascinating thing to watch.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up after the break The Risks of Success, Karen,

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<v Speaker 1>there has been a lot of talk about how bad

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<v Speaker 1>Peter Dutton's campaign was, but there really was only five

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<v Speaker 1>weeks in it. So how much of an influence do

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<v Speaker 1>you think that campaign and the mistakes that were made

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<v Speaker 1>had on the way that people voted or do you

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<v Speaker 1>get the sense that perhaps people had already made up

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<v Speaker 1>their minds about Dutton when he took over the leadership

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<v Speaker 1>three years ago.

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<v Speaker 2>I think there's a cumulative effect of these things. So

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<v Speaker 2>we know that Peter Dutton wasn't a popular figure in

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<v Speaker 2>Australian politics. The people had seen him as a fairly

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<v Speaker 2>hardline guy, and he has talked about himself trying to

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<v Speaker 2>soften out his image and get people to see the

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<v Speaker 2>other side to him, so he's conscious of that. So

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<v Speaker 2>I think there was that entrenched in the minds of

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<v Speaker 2>Australians and then they're you know, they're wanting to be

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<v Speaker 2>convinced that there are other reasons if they have some

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<v Speaker 2>doubts about him, they want to have other reasons to

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<v Speaker 2>vote for him. And the problem he had was that

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<v Speaker 2>he made some mistakes, he had to change his policy,

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<v Speaker 2>he seemed to be inconsistent, and that then fed into

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<v Speaker 2>this sense that perhaps the opposition wasn't ready for government,

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<v Speaker 2>and that was certainly the line that Anthony Obernizi and

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<v Speaker 2>his labor team were pushing. So I think all of

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<v Speaker 2>those things came together, and it was some of the

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<v Speaker 2>things in the campaign and the mistakes and the sort

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<v Speaker 2>of sense of chaotic unpreparedness for the campaign, let alone

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<v Speaker 2>for government, that reinforced some of those other concerns about

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<v Speaker 2>Peter Dutton that had been lingering around for people over

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<v Speaker 2>the past three years.

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<v Speaker 1>And obviously it wasn't the election that the Greens were

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<v Speaker 1>hoping for either. I don't know whether his seat has

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<v Speaker 1>been called yet, but it was getting extremely close on

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<v Speaker 1>election night. Max Tandler Maper has lost his seat. How

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<v Speaker 1>do you think the Greens will be thinking about this.

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<v Speaker 2>I think this was not a good result for the Greens.

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<v Speaker 2>They'll be trying to put a positive spin on it

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<v Speaker 2>in that they may end up having a little more

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<v Speaker 2>influence in the Senate, but they would be shocked. I

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<v Speaker 2>think that Adam Bann has gone so close to losing

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<v Speaker 2>his own seat that they've lost two of those seats

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<v Speaker 2>that they won so well at the twenty twenty two

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<v Speaker 2>election in Queensland. They are still in the hunt for

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<v Speaker 2>one or two seats in Victoria and one or two elsewhere.

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<v Speaker 2>But on the whole, you can't say that this is

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<v Speaker 2>an emphatic endorsement of the Greens. And I think what

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<v Speaker 2>this says is that they made a mistake in the

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<v Speaker 2>way they approached their politics over the past year. They

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<v Speaker 2>went very hard like the Coalition frankly on what's been

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<v Speaker 2>called Grief's politics and attacking the government. They raised and

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<v Speaker 2>went very hard on Gaza, and some people saw that

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<v Speaker 2>as divisive in the community. Others thought they were champions

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<v Speaker 2>of the Palestinian cause. But I think they've realized from

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<v Speaker 2>the public feedback that it wasn't going well for them

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<v Speaker 2>and they had to pivot to a different kind of campaign.

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<v Speaker 2>They've been emphasizing keeping Peter Dutton out of office and

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<v Speaker 2>they were claim some credit now for him having lost

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<v Speaker 2>his own seat, and they switched more to focusing on

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<v Speaker 2>economic issues and talking about holding government to account but

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<v Speaker 2>not being seen as being obstructionist, and that was another

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<v Speaker 2>problem they had. They didn't support some of the government's

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<v Speaker 2>measures on housing, for example, so they've had to change

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<v Speaker 2>lad in the peace and that's probably helped their campaign.

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<v Speaker 2>But I think it says that, you know, there's a

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<v Speaker 2>warning from the public that they weren't entirely happy and

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<v Speaker 2>they certainly the Greens certainly haven't done as well as

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<v Speaker 2>they did last time.

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<v Speaker 1>And so Karen, as you've outlined, it was a bad

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<v Speaker 1>result for the Greens, a terrible result for the coalition.

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<v Speaker 1>So how do you think that Labor are now thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about their own success and how they'll measure it in

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<v Speaker 1>the next three years.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, the first thing they have to make sure of

0:13:08.200 --> 0:13:11.120
<v Speaker 2>in achieving success is that they don't fall victim to

0:13:11.240 --> 0:13:14.160
<v Speaker 2>hubris and arrogance, and winning a victory as big as

0:13:14.200 --> 0:13:17.360
<v Speaker 2>this one, that's a huge risk. So for a start

0:13:17.440 --> 0:13:19.520
<v Speaker 2>they need to guard against that, and I know that

0:13:19.559 --> 0:13:22.880
<v Speaker 2>they're very conscious of that. And with an opposition in disarray,

0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:24.840
<v Speaker 2>it's easy to fall into that. So I think they

0:13:24.840 --> 0:13:27.720
<v Speaker 2>have to be super careful, and I think they will

0:13:27.760 --> 0:13:32.800
<v Speaker 2>think that if they can maintain public support in the

0:13:32.840 --> 0:13:37.160
<v Speaker 2>opinion polls, achieve some change and do that in a

0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:40.240
<v Speaker 2>way that doesn't see the public turn against them, and

0:13:40.240 --> 0:13:43.160
<v Speaker 2>then they will consider that as a success. And we

0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:47.160
<v Speaker 2>know the Prime Minister likes to think ahead. Before the

0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:50.120
<v Speaker 2>last election he said he had a strategy for two terms.

0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:53.320
<v Speaker 2>He said that again in an interview during this campaign

0:13:53.360 --> 0:13:56.559
<v Speaker 2>that he was thinking about the next turn. So he's

0:13:56.559 --> 0:13:59.120
<v Speaker 2>always trying to lay the groundwork for the one after

0:13:59.200 --> 0:14:02.160
<v Speaker 2>this one. He'll be trying to do that in a

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<v Speaker 2>way that intreaches Labor as a party of long term

0:14:05.840 --> 0:14:09.160
<v Speaker 2>government as it was back in the days of Bob

0:14:09.200 --> 0:14:13.280
<v Speaker 2>Hawk and Paul Keating, because we really haven't seen long

0:14:13.400 --> 0:14:18.040
<v Speaker 2>term sustainable labor governments since then, and we'll see how

0:14:18.040 --> 0:14:21.720
<v Speaker 2>well they go in three years' time when we're awaiting

0:14:21.720 --> 0:14:22.720
<v Speaker 2>the next ventual election.

0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:27.600
<v Speaker 1>Well, Karen, thank you so much for your time. It's

0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:29.080
<v Speaker 1>been great having you back on the show.

0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:31.200
<v Speaker 2>Thanks Herby, thanks for having me.

0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:51.400
<v Speaker 1>Also in the news today, Clive Palmer's Trumpet of Patriots

0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:53.800
<v Speaker 1>has failed to secure any seats in the House of

0:14:53.840 --> 0:14:57.680
<v Speaker 1>Representatives or the Senate. More than three quarters of votes

0:14:57.680 --> 0:14:59.880
<v Speaker 1>have been counted in the House, with only one point

0:15:00.160 --> 0:15:03.800
<v Speaker 1>nine percent going to the fringe minor Party. Clive Palmer

0:15:03.840 --> 0:15:07.360
<v Speaker 1>has claimed that he spent sixty million dollars on the campaign,

0:15:10.360 --> 0:15:14.080
<v Speaker 1>and former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce has been diagnosed

0:15:14.120 --> 0:15:18.200
<v Speaker 1>with prostate cancer. The Nationals MP made the announcement today

0:15:18.240 --> 0:15:20.680
<v Speaker 1>following his re election to the seat of New England

0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:24.400
<v Speaker 1>on Saturday night. Joyce is due to have surgery today,

0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:27.320
<v Speaker 1>saying he didn't announce it earlier because he didn't want

0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:30.560
<v Speaker 1>to distract from his campaigning and urged all men to

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<v Speaker 1>get tested. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am. Thanks

0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:44.680
<v Speaker 1>for listening.