Speaker 1: So, Karen, welcome back to seven AM. It's great to
Speaker 1: have you on the show.
Speaker 2: Thanks, Ruby, it's great to be back.
Speaker 1: Karen Middleton has known Anthony Albanesi for more than thirty years,
Speaker 1: since before he entered parliament. She's watched his rise and
Speaker 1: documented the moments that have shaped the leader he is today.
Speaker 1: And Karen says that this election is going to change
Speaker 1: Anthony Albanesi in ways that will change the country too.
Speaker 2: It's different winning the second time, and when you win
Speaker 2: a second time with the majority as massive as this landslide,
Speaker 2: really is what we're talking about. I think that has
Speaker 2: an impact on a leader, how they think and what
Speaker 2: they might be prepared to do.
Speaker 1: From Schwartz Media, I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven AM Today,
Speaker 1: author of Albanesi Telling It Straight. Karen Middleton on why
Speaker 1: Anthony Albanesi won and what the next three years of
Speaker 1: Labor government will look like. It's Monday, May five. So
Speaker 1: this election is obviously a huge and historic moment for
Speaker 1: Anthony Alberzi. He's been returned to government in a landslide,
Speaker 1: one of the best results that a Labor leader has
Speaker 1: ever achieved. You have followed Alberese's career for a very
Speaker 1: long time. You wrote his biography. So tell me, are
Speaker 1: you surprised by the strength of his victory over the weekend.
Speaker 2: I haven't talked to anyone who isn't surprised about just
Speaker 2: how emphatic that victory has been.
Speaker 1: Wow, what about this?
Speaker 2: This morning?
Speaker 1: He is waking up to a healthy, very healthy, eighty
Speaker 1: eight seat majority government. Just talk us through how expected
Speaker 1: was this result? I mean, slightly expected, but not by
Speaker 1: this massive margin?
Speaker 2: No, the results? How do you reflect on what happened
Speaker 2: last night? It's still sinking in, David. I mean, this
Speaker 2: was beyond even our most optimistic expectations. It's much bigger
Speaker 2: than I expected it to be. I was quite surprised
Speaker 2: at just how many seats they've won and just what
Speaker 2: a state the Liberal Party has been left in.
Speaker 1: And three years ago so in twenty twenty two, we
Speaker 1: were actually both at the Labor headquarters when he won
Speaker 1: that first election. But to get returned to government with
Speaker 1: this kind of majority is unusual, isn't it?
Speaker 2: Yes?
Speaker 1: It is.
Speaker 2: If you sink back to saying the John Howard victory
Speaker 2: in nineteen ninety six and then the one in nineteen
Speaker 2: ninety eight, he almost lost that second election, it was
Speaker 2: very close, and this time Anthony Albernezi has dramatically increased
Speaker 2: his majority. So that is quite a different circumstance to
Speaker 2: the one we saw in twenty twenty two, and I
Speaker 2: think it does something to a leader winning a second
Speaker 2: time again. If you think back to John Howard, you've
Speaker 2: got to send from him, and I've got the sense
Speaker 2: a little bit from Anthony Albanesi as well, that there's
Speaker 2: a little tiny niggling thing in the back of their
Speaker 2: minds that when they win that first victory that says
Speaker 2: that maybe it wasn't just them, Maybe it was because
Speaker 2: the other side had been in for a long time,
Speaker 2: the electric was sick of the other guy, as it
Speaker 2: was in both cases, and so it isn't really until
Speaker 2: they win that second victory that they feel like that
Speaker 2: is an endorsement of them and their leadership and their policies,
Speaker 2: their strategy. And so I think that's what you see
Speaker 2: now with Anthony Albanesi.
Speaker 1: And his reelection chances looked very different at the beginning
Speaker 1: of this year. There were several news polls that had
Speaker 1: the Coalition in the lead fifty one to forty nine.
Speaker 1: Back in January so do you think that those polls
Speaker 1: they were an accurate representation of how people felt about
Speaker 1: Anthony Albanesi at the beginning of the year, and if so,
Speaker 1: what changed for him.
Speaker 2: Yes, I think there were an accurate reflection in so
Speaker 2: far people were really fatigued with the cost of living crisis.
Speaker 2: They felt that the government had been a little bit
Speaker 2: adrift and that things weren't changing. They weren't getting the
Speaker 2: attention and the support that they felt that they needed,
Speaker 2: and you'd seen the opposition really being able to capitalize
Speaker 2: on that through last year and put the government on
Speaker 2: the defensive, so that you know, really we came into
Speaker 2: the new year with the opinion polls suggesting that a
Speaker 2: coalition upset victory was a real possibility. I think the
Speaker 2: Prime Minister had had some trouble communicating clearly last year,
Speaker 2: and what happened early this year is that he and
Speaker 2: his office really focused very very strongly on the messages
Speaker 2: that they wanted to send in the lead up to
Speaker 2: this election, and they worked on that very intensely, and
Speaker 2: I think what you have seen in the campaign period
Speaker 2: is the results of that work. He has managed to
Speaker 2: turn those polls around by being very very disciplined with
Speaker 2: the messaging, making sure that what they had was a
Speaker 2: program to offer the Australian people that was forward looking,
Speaker 2: that was optimistic, that was centered around things that Australians
Speaker 2: cared about, and health really was the main anchor to
Speaker 2: their policy platform offering for this election, and to connect
Speaker 2: all of that up to easing the cost of living
Speaker 2: burdens on Australians. And I think there were a number
Speaker 2: of things that happened even as recently as throughout the campaign,
Speaker 2: not re least Donald Trump and the Wavy Opposition ran
Speaker 2: their campaign that contributed, but there was a change in
Speaker 2: the way Labor and the Prime Minister and his team
Speaker 2: approached things that meant that they started turning those polls
Speaker 2: around right as they came into the campaign period.
Speaker 1: So Labor clearly has a mandate now for the next
Speaker 1: three years, and as many people are speculating with a
Speaker 1: majority like this for the term after that as well potentially.
Speaker 1: So what do you think that thy Albanezi is going
Speaker 1: to do with that?
Speaker 2: Well, it's an interesting question, isn't it. Because he has
Speaker 2: a huge mandate, and he has a huge backbench, and
Speaker 2: he has the security of a huge backbench and that
Speaker 2: means that he's got a lot of political capital he
Speaker 2: can afford to do things be perhaps a bit more bold.
Speaker 2: That was one of the criticisms that his own traditional
Speaker 2: constituents made of their Prime minister and his government, that
Speaker 2: it was too cautious and wasn't willing to do enough
Speaker 2: in the old traditional labor style. But I think one
Speaker 2: of the things that Anthony Alberanzi will be very mindful
Speaker 2: of is that there's certainly a message from the electorate
Speaker 2: that you have to take people with you, So I
Speaker 2: don't think you want to start floating policy ideas that
Speaker 2: haven't been properly ventilated with the public. Having said that,
Speaker 2: there are things that he has talked about as desirable
Speaker 2: objectives and achievements for labor, and I think when he
Speaker 2: was asked during one of the debates in the campaign period,
Speaker 2: what you know his great legacy or priority might be,
Speaker 2: he talked about universal childcare. Mister Albanezi, what's the one
Speaker 2: big change you'd like to be remembered for. Affordable childcare
Speaker 2: is one of the things that we're doing.
Speaker 1: We've already did put measures in place.
Speaker 2: So there'll be things like that that he has spoken
Speaker 2: about as an ambition that you might see him pursue
Speaker 2: more vigorously in a second term.
Speaker 1: And you mentioned earlier you talked about how winning a
Speaker 1: second time changes politicians. You know Anthony Albanezi, well, how
Speaker 1: do you think that this will change him?
Speaker 2: The Prime Minister's speech was a fascinating demonstration and of
Speaker 2: the difference in three years, and the word that really
Speaker 2: stuck with me was confident. You know, he mentioned that
Speaker 2: in his speech and I think that is what you
Speaker 2: will see from this Prime minister now, less defensiveness, more confidence. Moreover,
Speaker 2: since that his strategy was rewarded and endorsed, that his
Speaker 2: personal approach, his role in the campaign, his public presentation,
Speaker 2: which we in the media have criticized so much and
Speaker 2: some of his own colleagues have as well, has improved.
Speaker 2: And I think the confidence you will see in Anthony
Speaker 2: Alberanezi is what's going to be very interesting to watch
Speaker 2: because that will dictate how much courage he has and
Speaker 2: what kinds of things he might be prepared to do
Speaker 2: with this huge mandate. And he'll be thinking, I don't
Speaker 2: know necessarily about legacy in terms of his own personal impact,
Speaker 2: but he'll be thinking about what he can do to
Speaker 2: change Australia in a permanent way, to make it a
Speaker 2: better place for everyone who lives there, and he's particularly
Speaker 2: focused on the people who do it the hardest. I'm
Speaker 2: sure he'll be thinking of his late mentor Tom Urn,
Speaker 2: from whom he learned all of his political skills, and
Speaker 2: I think he will want to be thinking that when
Speaker 2: he leaves politics. However far away that is that he
Speaker 2: has made a change to Australia and he's been given
Speaker 2: the opportunit unity with this huge victory, to really start
Speaker 2: to recraft some things in Australian maybe to make it
Speaker 2: a fairer and better place. And I think that's going
Speaker 2: to be a fascinating thing to watch.
Speaker 1: Coming up after the break The Risks of Success, Karen,
Speaker 1: there has been a lot of talk about how bad
Speaker 1: Peter Dutton's campaign was, but there really was only five
Speaker 1: weeks in it. So how much of an influence do
Speaker 1: you think that campaign and the mistakes that were made
Speaker 1: had on the way that people voted or do you
Speaker 1: get the sense that perhaps people had already made up
Speaker 1: their minds about Dutton when he took over the leadership
Speaker 1: three years ago.
Speaker 2: I think there's a cumulative effect of these things. So
Speaker 2: we know that Peter Dutton wasn't a popular figure in
Speaker 2: Australian politics. The people had seen him as a fairly
Speaker 2: hardline guy, and he has talked about himself trying to
Speaker 2: soften out his image and get people to see the
Speaker 2: other side to him, so he's conscious of that. So
Speaker 2: I think there was that entrenched in the minds of
Speaker 2: Australians and then they're you know, they're wanting to be
Speaker 2: convinced that there are other reasons if they have some
Speaker 2: doubts about him, they want to have other reasons to
Speaker 2: vote for him. And the problem he had was that
Speaker 2: he made some mistakes, he had to change his policy,
Speaker 2: he seemed to be inconsistent, and that then fed into
Speaker 2: this sense that perhaps the opposition wasn't ready for government,
Speaker 2: and that was certainly the line that Anthony Obernizi and
Speaker 2: his labor team were pushing. So I think all of
Speaker 2: those things came together, and it was some of the
Speaker 2: things in the campaign and the mistakes and the sort
Speaker 2: of sense of chaotic unpreparedness for the campaign, let alone
Speaker 2: for government, that reinforced some of those other concerns about
Speaker 2: Peter Dutton that had been lingering around for people over
Speaker 2: the past three years.
Speaker 1: And obviously it wasn't the election that the Greens were
Speaker 1: hoping for either. I don't know whether his seat has
Speaker 1: been called yet, but it was getting extremely close on
Speaker 1: election night. Max Tandler Maper has lost his seat. How
Speaker 1: do you think the Greens will be thinking about this.
Speaker 2: I think this was not a good result for the Greens.
Speaker 2: They'll be trying to put a positive spin on it
Speaker 2: in that they may end up having a little more
Speaker 2: influence in the Senate, but they would be shocked. I
Speaker 2: think that Adam Bann has gone so close to losing
Speaker 2: his own seat that they've lost two of those seats
Speaker 2: that they won so well at the twenty twenty two
Speaker 2: election in Queensland. They are still in the hunt for
Speaker 2: one or two seats in Victoria and one or two elsewhere.
Speaker 2: But on the whole, you can't say that this is
Speaker 2: an emphatic endorsement of the Greens. And I think what
Speaker 2: this says is that they made a mistake in the
Speaker 2: way they approached their politics over the past year. They
Speaker 2: went very hard like the Coalition frankly on what's been
Speaker 2: called Grief's politics and attacking the government. They raised and
Speaker 2: went very hard on Gaza, and some people saw that
Speaker 2: as divisive in the community. Others thought they were champions
Speaker 2: of the Palestinian cause. But I think they've realized from
Speaker 2: the public feedback that it wasn't going well for them
Speaker 2: and they had to pivot to a different kind of campaign.
Speaker 2: They've been emphasizing keeping Peter Dutton out of office and
Speaker 2: they were claim some credit now for him having lost
Speaker 2: his own seat, and they switched more to focusing on
Speaker 2: economic issues and talking about holding government to account but
Speaker 2: not being seen as being obstructionist, and that was another
Speaker 2: problem they had. They didn't support some of the government's
Speaker 2: measures on housing, for example, so they've had to change
Speaker 2: lad in the peace and that's probably helped their campaign.
Speaker 2: But I think it says that, you know, there's a
Speaker 2: warning from the public that they weren't entirely happy and
Speaker 2: they certainly the Greens certainly haven't done as well as
Speaker 2: they did last time.
Speaker 1: And so Karen, as you've outlined, it was a bad
Speaker 1: result for the Greens, a terrible result for the coalition.
Speaker 1: So how do you think that Labor are now thinking
Speaker 1: about their own success and how they'll measure it in
Speaker 1: the next three years.
Speaker 2: Well, the first thing they have to make sure of
Speaker 2: in achieving success is that they don't fall victim to
Speaker 2: hubris and arrogance, and winning a victory as big as
Speaker 2: this one, that's a huge risk. So for a start
Speaker 2: they need to guard against that, and I know that
Speaker 2: they're very conscious of that. And with an opposition in disarray,
Speaker 2: it's easy to fall into that. So I think they
Speaker 2: have to be super careful, and I think they will
Speaker 2: think that if they can maintain public support in the
Speaker 2: opinion polls, achieve some change and do that in a
Speaker 2: way that doesn't see the public turn against them, and
Speaker 2: then they will consider that as a success. And we
Speaker 2: know the Prime Minister likes to think ahead. Before the
Speaker 2: last election he said he had a strategy for two terms.
Speaker 2: He said that again in an interview during this campaign
Speaker 2: that he was thinking about the next turn. So he's
Speaker 2: always trying to lay the groundwork for the one after
Speaker 2: this one. He'll be trying to do that in a
Speaker 2: way that intreaches Labor as a party of long term
Speaker 2: government as it was back in the days of Bob
Speaker 2: Hawk and Paul Keating, because we really haven't seen long
Speaker 2: term sustainable labor governments since then, and we'll see how
Speaker 2: well they go in three years' time when we're awaiting
Speaker 2: the next ventual election.
Speaker 1: Well, Karen, thank you so much for your time. It's
Speaker 1: been great having you back on the show.
Speaker 2: Thanks Herby, thanks for having me.
Speaker 1: Also in the news today, Clive Palmer's Trumpet of Patriots
Speaker 1: has failed to secure any seats in the House of
Speaker 1: Representatives or the Senate. More than three quarters of votes
Speaker 1: have been counted in the House, with only one point
Speaker 1: nine percent going to the fringe minor Party. Clive Palmer
Speaker 1: has claimed that he spent sixty million dollars on the campaign,
Speaker 1: and former Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce has been diagnosed
Speaker 1: with prostate cancer. The Nationals MP made the announcement today
Speaker 1: following his re election to the seat of New England
Speaker 1: on Saturday night. Joyce is due to have surgery today,
Speaker 1: saying he didn't announce it earlier because he didn't want
Speaker 1: to distract from his campaigning and urged all men to
Speaker 1: get tested. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am. Thanks
Speaker 1: for listening.