1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:02,680 Speaker 1: This podcast was recorded on the land of the Gadigel 2 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:04,080 Speaker 1: people of the Uran Nation. 3 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:11,160 Speaker 2: Hello, and welcome to the Real Story with Joe Hildebrand. 4 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: Well, it's on or it's off. We don't really know. 5 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:19,160 Speaker 1: The election may have been blown off course by cyclone Alfred. 6 00:00:19,239 --> 00:00:21,800 Speaker 1: Do you see what I did there? Plus what's it 7 00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 1: like to have a bounty on your head put there 8 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 1: by the Chinese Communist Party. We're going to speak to 9 00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:32,640 Speaker 1: someone who is literally on the run from the Chinese government. 10 00:00:32,680 --> 00:00:34,960 Speaker 1: This is incredible cloak and dagger stuff. He's going to 11 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:37,720 Speaker 1: give us some insights onto how these guys operate and 12 00:00:38,360 --> 00:00:41,279 Speaker 1: what is happening with Donald Trump. Again, we might as 13 00:00:41,280 --> 00:00:43,120 Speaker 1: well just have this as a permanent Can we just 14 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:45,560 Speaker 1: record that what the hell is going on with Donald Trump? 15 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:47,600 Speaker 1: So I don't have to say it every week? Did 16 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 1: he just start World War three in the Ukraine? Did 17 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:51,839 Speaker 1: he just stop World War three? We're going to get 18 00:00:51,840 --> 00:00:53,639 Speaker 1: into that as well. All that and heaps more coming up. 19 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:06,680 Speaker 1: So first up, we are meant to be in an 20 00:01:06,680 --> 00:01:09,560 Speaker 1: election campaign already. I mean we are in an election 21 00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:12,119 Speaker 1: campaign already, but it was meant to have been officially 22 00:01:12,520 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 1: called by now, the time for an April fifth election 23 00:01:17,319 --> 00:01:20,720 Speaker 1: to be called was over the past weekend Monday at 24 00:01:20,760 --> 00:01:22,840 Speaker 1: the very latest, but they usually do it on a 25 00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:26,880 Speaker 1: Sunday or a Saturday, and it didn't happen. There are 26 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:29,520 Speaker 1: a couple of reasons for that, and one of them 27 00:01:29,920 --> 00:01:32,320 Speaker 1: is the reason it may not happen on April twelve, 28 00:01:32,480 --> 00:01:34,880 Speaker 1: which was the other date that everyone thought. So just 29 00:01:34,920 --> 00:01:37,199 Speaker 1: to rewind, you heard here that there was a whole 30 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:41,120 Speaker 1: bunch of smart money on April five being the day 31 00:01:41,120 --> 00:01:43,199 Speaker 1: of the federal election. Now this was for a whole 32 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:47,080 Speaker 1: bunch of reasons. One April twelve was meant to be 33 00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:49,720 Speaker 1: the day, and this would rule out the need for 34 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:53,200 Speaker 1: the government to release a budget that it had brought 35 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 1: forward for some reason when news was meant to be better. 36 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 1: I guess that a budget that was not going to 37 00:01:58,720 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 1: have good news to be a budget in deficit after 38 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,800 Speaker 1: two surpluses. So if you bring the election forward, you 39 00:02:04,840 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 1: don't have to worry about any of that. Parliament doesn't 40 00:02:07,120 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 1: have to go back, and of course you don't want 41 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: to have an election in the middle of Easter or 42 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:14,600 Speaker 1: Anzac Day or the school holidays, which is all happening 43 00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:16,760 Speaker 1: in late April. And then you get really right up 44 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:19,079 Speaker 1: against it. You get to the end of the government's 45 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 1: actual term when they have to call it no matter what. 46 00:02:21,760 --> 00:02:23,720 Speaker 1: So the idea was that you had call it for 47 00:02:23,760 --> 00:02:26,480 Speaker 1: April twelve, and then some little bright sparks that ah, 48 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,320 Speaker 1: that's the beginning of Passover. And you know how the 49 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:32,359 Speaker 1: Jewish community is already a big stuff. You about it 50 00:02:32,480 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 1: a few little things, you know, the fire bombings, the synagogues, 51 00:02:35,240 --> 00:02:38,320 Speaker 1: the torch cars, that sort of stuff. Maybe you don't 52 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 1: want to kind of upset them again. And so everyone 53 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:44,040 Speaker 1: thought that April fifth was the new Day, which has 54 00:02:44,080 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 1: all the benefits of April twelve, but with none of 55 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:50,200 Speaker 1: the drawbacks. That didn't happen, And probably the reason it 56 00:02:50,240 --> 00:02:54,440 Speaker 1: didn't happen is the reason it might not. Dare I say, 57 00:02:54,560 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: probably won't happen on April twelfth if the prognosis is 58 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:01,400 Speaker 1: as bad as it's going to be, and that is, 59 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:05,520 Speaker 1: of course cyclone, Alfred, this is the cyclone. But by 60 00:03:05,560 --> 00:03:07,280 Speaker 1: the time you're hearing this, we might have a better 61 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:11,560 Speaker 1: idea of just how damaging it has been and is 62 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: going to be. But they were thinking maybe twenty thousand 63 00:03:14,440 --> 00:03:17,160 Speaker 1: people might have to leave their homes or might be 64 00:03:17,320 --> 00:03:20,839 Speaker 1: affected or inundated by flootboys one way or the other, 65 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:24,840 Speaker 1: and it's hitting the very highly populated unlike other cyclones 66 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:28,480 Speaker 1: which tend to hit further north, hitting very highly populated 67 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: southeast corner of Queensland, so Brisbane and the Gold Coast. 68 00:03:32,080 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 1: So it's a very very potentially dangerous prospect. I think 69 00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 1: they're thinking could be a Category three by the time 70 00:03:39,320 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 1: it makes landfall, and the Prime Minister and David chris 71 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:46,320 Speaker 1: A fully the Premier of Queensland, are already up in 72 00:03:46,400 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 1: Queensland warning people to take precautions, sandbag their homes. Footy 73 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 1: matches shows everything's been rescheduled or called off or sent 74 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:58,640 Speaker 1: to other areas. So if that happens, and if that 75 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:01,960 Speaker 1: is what is going on over the weekend, I think 76 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 1: it would be impossible for the PM to call an 77 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:07,600 Speaker 1: election for April twelve. He would basically have to sort 78 00:04:07,640 --> 00:04:10,440 Speaker 1: of leave the disastersign and say sorry, while you're still 79 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 1: safeguarding your homes or you know you're in that evacuation center, We're. 80 00:04:14,520 --> 00:04:17,120 Speaker 2: Just calling a poll for April twelve. 81 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,200 Speaker 1: I'm just going to drive to Yarra Lumla in my 82 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:24,080 Speaker 1: taxpayer funded limousine and call an election because I think 83 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:26,480 Speaker 1: that would be the most politically advantageous time for me. 84 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:29,160 Speaker 1: So obviously he's not going to do that because he's 85 00:04:29,520 --> 00:04:32,839 Speaker 1: not a monster. So again, if there's a great big 86 00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:35,560 Speaker 1: sigh of relief and the cyclone comes and it's just 87 00:04:35,560 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 1: a bit of a stiff wind and you know, a 88 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:40,840 Speaker 1: nice dose of rain, no problem, he can do that. 89 00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 1: Thank God. Aren't we lucky? You know the worst is over. 90 00:04:44,160 --> 00:04:47,160 Speaker 1: It wasn't as bad. We've dodged a bullet. Okay, let's 91 00:04:47,160 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 1: go to the polls Australia. Aren't you lucky to be alive? 92 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:53,280 Speaker 1: But if it is as bad as it is predicted 93 00:04:53,279 --> 00:04:57,200 Speaker 1: to be, then I'm afraid. I just don't see how 94 00:04:57,200 --> 00:05:01,039 Speaker 1: that happens. And that means that because there's the holidays 95 00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 1: because of Anzac Day and Lisa. 96 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 2: The next likeless day would be May third, and. 97 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,200 Speaker 1: That is just killing me because I am just waiting 98 00:05:09,400 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 1: for this thing to be called so that I can 99 00:05:11,400 --> 00:05:14,200 Speaker 1: then be the busiest man in Australia and do all 100 00:05:14,240 --> 00:05:16,839 Speaker 1: the stuff that I have to do. And it's gonna 101 00:05:16,880 --> 00:05:19,000 Speaker 1: just I just want it over and done with, quite frankly. 102 00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 1: But I also want to just get right into it, 103 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:26,400 Speaker 1: so it may in fact be delayed even beyond April twelfth, 104 00:05:26,400 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 1: which is what everyone had thought was going to be 105 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:32,039 Speaker 1: after it wasn't April the fifth. Does that make sense? 106 00:05:32,080 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 1: I hope. So now, just on another note, this is 107 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:37,080 Speaker 1: just a personal thing. But Alfred. I mean, given this 108 00:05:37,120 --> 00:05:42,280 Speaker 1: cyclone is going to cause such damage and destruction, why 109 00:05:42,320 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 1: are we calling it Alfred? I know they choose these 110 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:46,479 Speaker 1: names at random, and I know that they can't just 111 00:05:46,800 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 1: go with it. It used to just be you know, girls' names, 112 00:05:49,120 --> 00:05:51,280 Speaker 1: you know, and everyone said, well that's a bit sexist, 113 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:57,040 Speaker 1: just naming these terribly destructive things after women. But al 114 00:05:57,440 --> 00:06:00,840 Speaker 1: get a more menacing name, Like what's cyclone Alfred? What's 115 00:06:00,839 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 1: it going to do? Become the first king of England? 116 00:06:03,880 --> 00:06:05,920 Speaker 1: You know, like, get it if you're going to name 117 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:10,680 Speaker 1: it after blokes? You know, cyclone, cyclone demo, you know, 118 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 1: someone who's going to smash a beer bottle and start 119 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:15,160 Speaker 1: waving it around at the end of the night, you know, 120 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:18,599 Speaker 1: just a thought. Anyway, Hope everyone's okay. That is obviously 121 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:21,039 Speaker 1: just the political analysis. The most important thing is that 122 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 1: everyone stays alive and safe and God willing, that's exactly 123 00:06:24,520 --> 00:06:32,800 Speaker 1: what will happen. Let's get to the rest of the show. Now. 124 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:36,560 Speaker 1: As I was coming into Nova Studios to record this today, 125 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:41,040 Speaker 1: I bumped into one of my lovely bosses here, Ellie. 126 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:43,400 Speaker 1: In fact, she's more than a boss. She's a friend. 127 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:50,840 Speaker 1: And not just not just a friend, but an incredibly intelligent, kind, thoughtful, 128 00:06:52,120 --> 00:07:00,480 Speaker 1: good looking, wise, wonderful, kitten loving friend. I mean, I mean, 129 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:02,880 Speaker 1: this is the sort of person that you just think, 130 00:07:03,080 --> 00:07:04,880 Speaker 1: I'm just so lucky to have you in my life. 131 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:07,520 Speaker 1: And the fact that she's my boss has nothing to 132 00:07:07,560 --> 00:07:09,960 Speaker 1: do with that. This is just an a This is 133 00:07:10,000 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 1: one human being to another, just saying I see a 134 00:07:12,280 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 1: touch of the divine in you. Anyway, she said, Joe, 135 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 1: tell me it's going to be okay. I said, tell 136 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:18,280 Speaker 1: you what's going. 137 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:18,760 Speaker 2: To be okay. 138 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:22,400 Speaker 1: We've got World War three Option A started by Russia, 139 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: World War three Option B started by China. We've got 140 00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:29,800 Speaker 1: cyclone Alfred about to rip the Jesus out of Southeast 141 00:07:29,840 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 1: and Queensland. We've got a cost of living crisis that 142 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:35,880 Speaker 1: still hasn't gone away. We've got you know, New Zealand's 143 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:37,920 Speaker 1: probably up to something and we don't even know about it. 144 00:07:38,720 --> 00:07:41,760 Speaker 1: I mean, what crisis are you talking about? What do 145 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:43,960 Speaker 1: you want to be okay from and she said, I 146 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 1: don't know. I was actually feeling much more cheerful before 147 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 1: you mentioned all that. Anyway, let's get straight to the 148 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,560 Speaker 1: guts of it, which is, of course, World War three 149 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 1: option A. We will be dealing with World War three 150 00:07:56,080 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 1: option B later in the show, which is what China 151 00:07:59,120 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: is doing and why they sailing warships around the coast 152 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: of Australia. And I've got something actually quite interesting to 153 00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 1: say about that as well. But World War III Option 154 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 1: A is very much the love child of Vladimir Putin 155 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:19,160 Speaker 1: and Vladimir Zelenski, who is the president of Ukraine. Now, 156 00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: when I say it's the love child of these two, 157 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 1: this is not a consensual relationship. 158 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 2: This is Vladimir Putin invading. 159 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:30,560 Speaker 1: This metaphor is getting way too sexual. But anyway, he 160 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:33,760 Speaker 1: invaded Ukraine. Whatever Donald Trump says, whatever the Internet says, 161 00:08:33,800 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 1: whatever the conspiracy theories say about it's all Ukraine's fault 162 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:40,679 Speaker 1: because they shouldn't have toyed with, you know, joining NATO again. 163 00:08:40,760 --> 00:08:42,320 Speaker 1: I just can't get the analogy out of my head. 164 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 1: They flirted with NATO, and now Puten said, no, you 165 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:51,640 Speaker 1: are mine. I will invade you anyway. That's literally what happened. 166 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:56,199 Speaker 1: And Donald Trump, of course is in the ear of 167 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:59,720 Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin, or has the ear of Vladimir Putin, and 168 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:03,199 Speaker 1: both sort of strong men. They've got similar styles of politics. 169 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 1: They clearly have a bit of an affinity with each other. 170 00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:10,160 Speaker 1: He's had his officials talking to the Russians, He and 171 00:09:10,320 --> 00:09:13,480 Speaker 1: Putin set to have a talk just between the two 172 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:17,400 Speaker 1: of them about what to do about Ukraine. Ukraine, strangely enough, 173 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:20,199 Speaker 1: is not going to be at that talk, and everyone's 174 00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:22,559 Speaker 1: been very concerned about this, the Europeans going, well, hang 175 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 1: on a minute, we thought that you were just going 176 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 1: to come in and fix it, but fix it with 177 00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:30,920 Speaker 1: Ukraine and Russia, not just Russia. And suddenly the Europe's thinking, 178 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:32,920 Speaker 1: holy crap, maybe we've just been sitting on our hands 179 00:09:32,920 --> 00:09:35,199 Speaker 1: and we need to do more too, which you do anyway. 180 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 1: So this is meant that Ukraine has suddenly tried to 181 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:46,400 Speaker 1: appease Donald Trump and has suddenly moved heaven and Earth 182 00:09:46,559 --> 00:09:49,679 Speaker 1: to do what Donald Trump wants so that America will 183 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:53,480 Speaker 1: provide security guarantees to keV And it turns out that, 184 00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:56,160 Speaker 1: like with everything with Donald Trump, all of this is 185 00:09:56,200 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 1: happening against the backdrop of a deal, a big, beautiful deal. 186 00:10:01,760 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: So the US is trying to extract the rights to 187 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:10,120 Speaker 1: all these rare earths in Ukraine, and obviously, in the 188 00:10:10,240 --> 00:10:12,400 Speaker 1: twenty first century, rare earths are where it's at, is 189 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 1: the new gold. And they want i think half the 190 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,160 Speaker 1: rights or the rights to half of what the Ukrainians 191 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:20,360 Speaker 1: dig up. And Ukraine had been saying no to the 192 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:23,400 Speaker 1: US because if someone comes over and says, I want 193 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 1: half of all the good stuff that's in your ground, 194 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 1: you say no, unless, of course you're very survival depends 195 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:30,600 Speaker 1: on your giving it, and that was what was about 196 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 1: to happen. So Vladmya Zelenski, the President of Ukraine, suddenly, 197 00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 1: where the US just saying no, well, we'll just do 198 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:39,240 Speaker 1: whatever Russia wants. Then we'll just give it to them 199 00:10:39,240 --> 00:10:42,000 Speaker 1: if you want playballs, Suddenly they want a deal. Suddenly 200 00:10:42,040 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 1: they want to sign over their rare earths to the US. 201 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:48,200 Speaker 1: And a meeting is set up between Vladimir Zelensky and 202 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 1: Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House, 203 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 1: televised live across the world. Now, this should have been 204 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:03,000 Speaker 1: the greatest ever clutching, you know, victory from the jaws 205 00:11:03,000 --> 00:11:05,640 Speaker 1: of defeat. Ever, this is this is this is just 206 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,240 Speaker 1: you know, this is like Rambo driving off on the 207 00:11:09,280 --> 00:11:12,480 Speaker 1: motorcycle while the building explodes behind him. He has just 208 00:11:12,760 --> 00:11:15,199 Speaker 1: got away with it. Zelenski has dealt himself back in 209 00:11:15,679 --> 00:11:20,440 Speaker 1: to the table to negotiations by offering up this deal 210 00:11:20,559 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 1: to the Americans. And he picks it up. And he 211 00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 1: was under great provocation and he was obviously there to 212 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:33,040 Speaker 1: be kind of you know, chasened a little bit and 213 00:11:33,040 --> 00:11:35,679 Speaker 1: telling him, but he screwed it up. So what happened? 214 00:11:35,920 --> 00:11:39,280 Speaker 1: He goes in. Firstly, there's reports that he was said, 215 00:11:39,320 --> 00:11:41,200 Speaker 1: maybe you should wear a suit instead of your sort 216 00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:43,959 Speaker 1: of trademark figure hugging, you know, T shirt and skivvy 217 00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: with makes you look like a kind of paramilitary guy 218 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 1: when in fact you're just you're the politician. You're a 219 00:11:48,800 --> 00:11:51,560 Speaker 1: civilian politician. So and you know, maybe Donald would like it. 220 00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:53,880 Speaker 1: He likes it when people dress up, you know, chuck 221 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:56,120 Speaker 1: on a suit. It was reported that this was maybe 222 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 1: suggested to him, maybe it wasn't, who knows. Anyway, he 223 00:11:59,640 --> 00:12:02,680 Speaker 1: rocks up in his usual military fatigazy at least were 224 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:06,720 Speaker 1: sort of long sleeve this time, and he looks pretty 225 00:12:06,720 --> 00:12:08,720 Speaker 1: cool in them. But again, him looking cool is not 226 00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 1: the point of this exercise. The point of this exercise 227 00:12:11,120 --> 00:12:13,720 Speaker 1: is for Donald Trump to look cool, or more importantly, 228 00:12:13,720 --> 00:12:15,880 Speaker 1: to look like the big guy, the winner, the deal 229 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 1: maker who brings people to the table. So he rocks 230 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:22,320 Speaker 1: up Donald Trump immediately, even as he's welcoming him, as 231 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:24,320 Speaker 1: he gets out of the cart, immediately comments on the 232 00:12:24,320 --> 00:12:26,200 Speaker 1: fact that he's not wearing a suit, makes a little 233 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:30,360 Speaker 1: joke about it. Right, That should tell you where things 234 00:12:30,400 --> 00:12:33,719 Speaker 1: are likely to go anyway. He then comes in. They 235 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 1: have this conversation that goes for about forty minutes, and 236 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:40,559 Speaker 1: everything's going swimmingly. They're down to the last question. And 237 00:12:40,800 --> 00:12:44,320 Speaker 1: what happens then is that jd Vance, the Vice President, 238 00:12:44,800 --> 00:12:46,720 Speaker 1: chips in and says we're going to do things differently 239 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:50,439 Speaker 1: to Joe Biden. Now, Donald Trump and Jade Vance hanging 240 00:12:50,480 --> 00:12:53,240 Speaker 1: shit on Joe Biden is what they are there to do. 241 00:12:53,640 --> 00:12:55,920 Speaker 1: That is just par for the course. That does not 242 00:12:56,080 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: require any intervention, It does not require and comment. That 243 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 1: just requires what the comedian Kevin Bridges would say in 244 00:13:05,000 --> 00:13:06,599 Speaker 1: terms of how to deal with Donald Trump, you just 245 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:09,760 Speaker 1: tap him on the shining enjoy your Nate me so 246 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 1: just enjoy Okay, Yeah, fine, say whatever you want about 247 00:13:11,760 --> 00:13:14,200 Speaker 1: j You don't have to agree, you don't have to disagree, 248 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:17,560 Speaker 1: you don't have to argue with it. But Zelenski cannot 249 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 1: help himself, and he starts sort of pressing the point. 250 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:23,319 Speaker 1: He says, well, how are you, how are you going 251 00:13:23,360 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 1: to do diplomacy any different to what Biden? Did you 252 00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:29,679 Speaker 1: trust with Vladimir Putin? And what is that actually saying? Well, 253 00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:31,720 Speaker 1: of course Ladim Putin is the bad guy here. Of 254 00:13:31,760 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 1: course he's evil. He is the aggressor, there is no 255 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:37,880 Speaker 1: question about that. But he's also the guy that clearly 256 00:13:37,920 --> 00:13:42,440 Speaker 1: Donald Trump likes. So you're saying to Donald Trump, do 257 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: you actually trust this mate that you're doing a deal with, 258 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:47,520 Speaker 1: that you're friends with? And that makes Donald Trump look 259 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:50,240 Speaker 1: like a Trump. And even though those two things rhyme, 260 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 1: that is the one thing that Donald Trump does not 261 00:13:53,679 --> 00:13:56,600 Speaker 1: like being called. He is the guy who's the shrewd 262 00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:59,719 Speaker 1: deal maker. He's the guy I can always extract. He 263 00:13:59,760 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 1: wrote book literally called The Art of the Deal. And 264 00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:05,319 Speaker 1: Zelenski is now telling him that he's making a stupid 265 00:14:05,360 --> 00:14:11,640 Speaker 1: deal with Vadmir Putin, which he is. But you don't 266 00:14:11,720 --> 00:14:14,440 Speaker 1: need to say it again. It's like The Big Lebowski 267 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:17,960 Speaker 1: where Walter's subject says, am I wrong? Dude? Am I wrong? 268 00:14:18,040 --> 00:14:21,479 Speaker 1: Says no, Walter, You're not wrong, You're just an asshole. 269 00:14:23,680 --> 00:14:26,800 Speaker 1: Zelenski didn't need to point out to Donald Trump or 270 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:30,040 Speaker 1: Jdevance that they were wrong. But he can't help but 271 00:14:30,080 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 1: do it. He just implies it by saying, what you 272 00:14:32,600 --> 00:14:34,560 Speaker 1: guys are trusting? Putin why is he there? Again? An 273 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:38,160 Speaker 1: American journo made of Mind said that apparently been meeting 274 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 1: with Democrats on Capitol Hill before the meeting, and they'd 275 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:43,040 Speaker 1: been geeing him up, saying you've got it. You know 276 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 1: you've got a hold Donald Rum to account or whatever 277 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 1: it was. Now again, why would you do that? Why 278 00:14:48,240 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 1: in front of the nations, the world's cameras, would you 279 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 1: try to show up or prove wrong or even argue 280 00:14:56,360 --> 00:15:00,720 Speaker 1: with the one bloke who could save your countries are 281 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:04,320 Speaker 1: the one blog who could save your country's actual existence. 282 00:15:04,480 --> 00:15:06,360 Speaker 1: You don't do it. You are there just to nod 283 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 1: and smile and say thank you. And then, in the 284 00:15:09,320 --> 00:15:11,440 Speaker 1: words of Oliver Twists, I'm really quoting all the big 285 00:15:11,480 --> 00:15:15,000 Speaker 1: ones here, Please, sir, can I have some more? But 286 00:15:15,040 --> 00:15:17,200 Speaker 1: of course they get their hackles up, and then JD. 287 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:19,760 Speaker 1: Vance says, hey, well, you're not being very respectful. You 288 00:15:19,840 --> 00:15:22,760 Speaker 1: haven't even said thank you once, And of course, next 289 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 1: thing you know, it's on like donkey Kong. Zelenski actually 290 00:15:25,960 --> 00:15:29,840 Speaker 1: gets booted out of the building literally get told not out, 291 00:15:29,880 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: you go, you're not coming back. Come back, you know, 292 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:33,400 Speaker 1: like you say to your kids, come back here when 293 00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 1: you're ready to behave yourself. And he goes off and 294 00:15:36,720 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 1: all the rest of the world's leaders embrace him and 295 00:15:38,760 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 1: say how much they support him. But none of that matters, 296 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:45,160 Speaker 1: of course, because if America doesn't support Ukraine, they can 297 00:15:45,200 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 1: have all the support in the world literally from everybody 298 00:15:47,880 --> 00:15:50,280 Speaker 1: else in the world, and it's not going to be 299 00:15:50,400 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 1: enough to stand up to Russia. And so next thing 300 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 1: you know, the US is actually temporarily suspended AID because 301 00:15:58,080 --> 00:15:59,880 Speaker 1: Solenzi's gone out and said, oh well, no, the wars 302 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 1: gonna be over any time soon, and say, oh, well, 303 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 1: he's not ready for peace, we're going to suspend that. 304 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 1: So they're already doing it. They've already grounded the aid 305 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 1: that were going to give to Ukraine. And guess what, 306 00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: Zelenski now says he's ready to make things right. Wants 307 00:16:13,880 --> 00:16:17,840 Speaker 1: to talk again and just think how all of this 308 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:30,880 Speaker 1: could have been avoided simply by saying and doing nothing. Now, 309 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:33,479 Speaker 1: over the past week, there's been a lot of questions 310 00:16:33,600 --> 00:16:37,840 Speaker 1: raised about the presence of Chinese warships just off the 311 00:16:37,880 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: coast of Australia, something that appeared to take our national 312 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:46,880 Speaker 1: government by surprise. Neither Australia nor it seems possibly even 313 00:16:46,880 --> 00:16:50,560 Speaker 1: New Zealand was informed about this, but Papa New Guinea 314 00:16:50,640 --> 00:16:53,040 Speaker 1: for some reason was and this is alarmed. A lot 315 00:16:53,040 --> 00:16:55,760 Speaker 1: of security experts said, right, what is China doing in 316 00:16:55,800 --> 00:16:59,680 Speaker 1: our region? And it raises bigger questions as to how 317 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:06,359 Speaker 1: China exerts itself politically and militarily and strategically around the world. 318 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:10,720 Speaker 1: And our next guest knows this firsthand. He's someone who 319 00:17:10,760 --> 00:17:16,159 Speaker 1: has experienced the long arm of Chinese influence personally. His 320 00:17:16,280 --> 00:17:18,520 Speaker 1: name is Kevin Yam. He's a member of the China 321 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:24,280 Speaker 1: Strategic Risks Institute. He's a former Hong Kong lawyer. He's 322 00:17:24,320 --> 00:17:29,399 Speaker 1: a senior fellow at the Georgetown University Center for Asian Law. 323 00:17:30,240 --> 00:17:33,960 Speaker 1: And he's someone who has a bounty on his head 324 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:39,480 Speaker 1: placed on it by the Chinese Communist Party by the 325 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 1: government of China, and he joins me live on the 326 00:17:43,040 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 1: line right now. Good day, Kevin, how are you welcome. 327 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:47,440 Speaker 3: Good Joe. How's it going? 328 00:17:48,119 --> 00:17:51,920 Speaker 1: Look, it's going incredibly well, I think, but a lot 329 00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:56,760 Speaker 1: of people are very nervous about yet more Chinese aggression 330 00:17:57,320 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 1: in our region. Just before we get into your story, 331 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,720 Speaker 1: what did you make of the presence of Chinese warships 332 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:09,520 Speaker 1: just outside of Australia's economic exclusion zone and the Tasman Sea. 333 00:18:09,840 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: I imagine this is something that didn't entirely take you 334 00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:13,480 Speaker 1: by surprise. 335 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:19,640 Speaker 4: No, I'm not particularly surprised. I know that in Australia 336 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:22,919 Speaker 4: there's been a bit of a bypassers and push for 337 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:26,760 Speaker 4: warmer relations for China, and there was hope that by 338 00:18:26,920 --> 00:18:32,959 Speaker 4: pursuing that some of these incidents that might have happened 339 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:35,879 Speaker 4: in the past would go away. But they never go away. 340 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 4: And in fact, it's not just Australia or for that 341 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:42,160 Speaker 4: Matt in New Zealand that feel the effects of these 342 00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 4: sorts of let's pursue former relations. But China still keeps 343 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 4: pushing situations. I mean, we look at Southeast Asia. I 344 00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:56,400 Speaker 4: mean we look at Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, all countries 345 00:18:56,440 --> 00:19:00,600 Speaker 4: that seek to pursue warmer relations of China, but in 346 00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:04,520 Speaker 4: the South China Sea, China keeps pushing against them. 347 00:19:05,000 --> 00:19:07,760 Speaker 1: So basically, if you try to appease China far from 348 00:19:07,840 --> 00:19:11,439 Speaker 1: China saying okay, we're friends now, it simply exploits that 349 00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 1: and uses that to push further and further its own 350 00:19:15,560 --> 00:19:17,959 Speaker 1: nationalist and internationalist agender. 351 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:25,320 Speaker 4: Well, in short, for China, everything is transactional, right, and 352 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:29,880 Speaker 4: so they're not going to take a particularly principled approach. 353 00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:33,840 Speaker 4: They will say, well, okay, on trade or economic relations, 354 00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:38,359 Speaker 4: that's one piece, and we've transacted over that for what 355 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 4: both you and we consider to be of mutual benefit. 356 00:19:42,600 --> 00:19:46,280 Speaker 4: But the military side is another piece. Territorial claims is 357 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 4: another piece, Regional influences another piece. They get negotiated separately. 358 00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:57,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, and you know this obviously firsthand. You were in 359 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:01,000 Speaker 1: Hong Kong, were Hong Kong resident, you were a lawyer there. 360 00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:04,439 Speaker 1: That was obviously a piece of territory handed back to 361 00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:09,360 Speaker 1: China in nineteen ninety seven. For a while, things continue 362 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:13,280 Speaker 1: to know, the one country two systems sort of went along, 363 00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:16,120 Speaker 1: and then, of course just recently over the last few years, 364 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:21,800 Speaker 1: China basically let the world know what it really planned 365 00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 1: for Hong Kong. And you've effectively been on the run 366 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:31,120 Speaker 1: since that time. Just talk us through your own personal story. 367 00:20:31,280 --> 00:20:35,000 Speaker 4: Look, I was born in Hong Kong, but I moved 368 00:20:35,000 --> 00:20:37,199 Speaker 4: to Australia when I was ten years old, and I 369 00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:42,080 Speaker 4: grew up here and did school here, did uni here, 370 00:20:42,520 --> 00:20:46,800 Speaker 4: and you know Matt Hawthorne supporter, you name it, really 371 00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:54,160 Speaker 4: but after university graduation, I went to Hong Kong and 372 00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 4: practiced as a big enn of town commercial litigation regulatory 373 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:04,119 Speaker 4: investigation for nearly twenty years, and then on the side, 374 00:21:04,160 --> 00:21:08,879 Speaker 4: I was unusually also a democracy and rule of law activist. 375 00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 4: But for various reasons, including the sort of beginning of 376 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 4: the crackdown in Hong Kong by China, I decided to 377 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:24,719 Speaker 4: come back in twenty twenty two. And after I came back, 378 00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 4: I continued to speak out on Hong Kong issues. I've 379 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:34,280 Speaker 4: met with Australian politicians, the Foreign Minister, I've testified before 380 00:21:34,280 --> 00:21:38,840 Speaker 4: the US Congress and for my sins, they said, I'm 381 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:43,159 Speaker 4: colluding with foreign forces, even though you know, as an 382 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:48,480 Speaker 4: Australian citizen, I'm lobbying my own politicians. But they say 383 00:21:48,480 --> 00:21:51,800 Speaker 4: that that's collusion with foreign forces and they put a 384 00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:54,320 Speaker 4: two hundred thousand dollars bounty over my head. 385 00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:56,840 Speaker 1: Wow, So now I think you are the first guest 386 00:21:56,920 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 1: on this show who actually has a bounty on their head. 387 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:05,280 Speaker 1: Talk us through. Is that anyone who what can detain 388 00:22:05,320 --> 00:22:08,840 Speaker 1: you deliver you to Chinese authorities gets two hundred thousand dollars? 389 00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 1: How does that actually work? 390 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:14,320 Speaker 4: Well, I have no idea how they structure their payouts. 391 00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:19,959 Speaker 4: That's probably a question that anyone thinking about it. 392 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,800 Speaker 1: They're not replying to my emails though, I'm not sure 393 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:23,359 Speaker 1: how it looks. 394 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:28,800 Speaker 4: Yes, But look, I mean we are where we are, 395 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:33,719 Speaker 4: and for me, I live in Australia. Australia is at 396 00:22:33,760 --> 00:22:39,080 Speaker 4: democracy and as as I'm concerned, I continue to go 397 00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:42,680 Speaker 4: to the cricket during the summer, watch Hawthorn football Club 398 00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:43,600 Speaker 4: win during the winter. 399 00:22:44,720 --> 00:22:47,240 Speaker 1: And how does it does it affect you? I mean 400 00:22:47,240 --> 00:22:51,120 Speaker 1: it must affect you psychologically, it must like does that 401 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,159 Speaker 1: weigh heavily on your shoulders or is it something that 402 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,200 Speaker 1: you just try not to think about and as you say, 403 00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 1: just carry on your life, go to the footy, keep 404 00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:01,000 Speaker 1: doing your work. How does it feel? 405 00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:08,200 Speaker 4: Look, I'd be lying you know, or as teenagers nowadays 406 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:12,200 Speaker 4: would like to say, you know, I'm not gonna lie, And. 407 00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,320 Speaker 3: The reality is obviously weighs. 408 00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:21,399 Speaker 4: On you and you do have to think very carefully 409 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:27,440 Speaker 4: about some aspects of your life. So, for example, there 410 00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:30,080 Speaker 4: are very few places in Asia that I can visit, 411 00:23:32,080 --> 00:23:34,520 Speaker 4: and even places that I can visit, I've got to 412 00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 4: think about when to visit. So for example, if I 413 00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,840 Speaker 4: were ever to visit Taiwan, I've got to make sure 414 00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:45,080 Speaker 4: that I don't do it during typhoon season because during 415 00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:50,520 Speaker 4: typhoon season, flights from Taiwan might some flights to or 416 00:23:50,560 --> 00:23:54,480 Speaker 4: from Taiwan might sometimes be diverted to Hong Kong. 417 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,640 Speaker 1: Wow, And if you were to happened to step off 418 00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:01,440 Speaker 1: that plane, suddenly the game changes completely. 419 00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:05,840 Speaker 4: But then again, at some point you've just got to 420 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 4: get on with life and put one's life experiences and 421 00:24:12,520 --> 00:24:14,800 Speaker 4: knowledge to good use. And that's one of the reasons 422 00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:19,600 Speaker 4: why I'm doing a PhD at Melbourne Law School and 423 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:26,480 Speaker 4: my specialism right now is looking at how authoritarian regimes 424 00:24:26,560 --> 00:24:31,040 Speaker 4: affect business and financial regulations, which marries up my activist 425 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 4: and my private practice side of things. 426 00:24:34,080 --> 00:24:37,680 Speaker 1: Over the years, it's incredibly courageous. The fact that you're 427 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,960 Speaker 1: under so much pressure, you have this very real, live 428 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:44,120 Speaker 1: threat hanging over your head, and yet it's just driving 429 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:48,000 Speaker 1: you to do this sort of work even more. I mean, 430 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:51,840 Speaker 1: that's incredibly gutsy of you. I want to just talk 431 00:24:51,840 --> 00:24:55,199 Speaker 1: to you about I suppose the way because this is 432 00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,600 Speaker 1: part of the modus operandi that the CCP has to 433 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:04,639 Speaker 1: put enormous psychological and mental pressure on people. We know 434 00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:10,800 Speaker 1: that they will often use I suppose soft pressure on 435 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:15,240 Speaker 1: expat communities who might have family still back in China, 436 00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:19,240 Speaker 1: and that they have no compunction about leveraging that and saying, 437 00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:21,439 Speaker 1: you know, are you sure you really want to speak 438 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,760 Speaker 1: out about this when you've got Grandma still back at home. 439 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,000 Speaker 1: And the other interesting thing, and this seemed to me 440 00:25:29,000 --> 00:25:34,239 Speaker 1: really particular and deliberate that China alerted PNNG to the 441 00:25:34,280 --> 00:25:39,640 Speaker 1: presence of its warships doing military exercises with live rounds 442 00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:43,200 Speaker 1: off the east coast of Australia in the Tasman Sea, 443 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:48,240 Speaker 1: and yet didn't alert Australia and New Zealand. That obviously 444 00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 1: does not happen accidentally. That is sending a very very 445 00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:56,160 Speaker 1: clear message to Australia that we are going to tell 446 00:25:56,320 --> 00:26:00,840 Speaker 1: you know, basically a tiny Pacific back water like PNG, 447 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:06,080 Speaker 1: everything we're doing off your coast and we're not going 448 00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:08,879 Speaker 1: to tell you that seems to me a very deliberate 449 00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 1: mind game to accompany the war games that are going 450 00:26:12,600 --> 00:26:14,480 Speaker 1: on just off our coast. 451 00:26:14,840 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 4: Now, it may or may not be a mind game, 452 00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:25,080 Speaker 4: but what's very clear I think is that it's part 453 00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:32,560 Speaker 4: of the PRC's influence operations across the Pacific. So by 454 00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:37,360 Speaker 4: doing things like this, what they're trying to tell Pacific 455 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:42,600 Speaker 4: countries like the PNG is that look, for a long time, 456 00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 4: you've been the Western countries, but now we treat you 457 00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:51,399 Speaker 4: guys as being even more important than these white Western guys. 458 00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,840 Speaker 4: Look at how we roll out the red carpet for you. 459 00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:58,679 Speaker 1: Yes, absolutely, and we've seen obviously them doing it in 460 00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 1: the Solomon Islands. I think fig is also got a 461 00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:06,240 Speaker 1: bit of a bit of attention recently. How much of 462 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:09,240 Speaker 1: a threat do you think, I mean, I know that 463 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,119 Speaker 1: you know they're working on. This is now an area 464 00:27:12,160 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: of real primary concern for the Australian government. They are 465 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:19,800 Speaker 1: running around trying to assure Asia Pacific nations that in 466 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:23,520 Speaker 1: fact Australia is still very interested in their security, in 467 00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:27,440 Speaker 1: their economic development. We've just given P ANDG six hundred 468 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:31,320 Speaker 1: million dollars for a quote unquote football team, which must 469 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,840 Speaker 1: be the most well healed football team in all of 470 00:27:33,880 --> 00:27:37,640 Speaker 1: sporting history. How much of a threat do you think 471 00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:41,480 Speaker 1: it is that these nations will flip to China and 472 00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:46,199 Speaker 1: will start sort of, you know, parking Chinese warships in 473 00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:48,919 Speaker 1: their Chinese funded ports. 474 00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:51,760 Speaker 3: I would think that the threat is. 475 00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:57,440 Speaker 4: Greater than we would like, but perhaps less than we 476 00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:02,600 Speaker 4: think because on the one hand, you wishful thinking would 477 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:08,000 Speaker 4: be that all these Pacific nations have strong historical ties 478 00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:11,520 Speaker 4: with Australia and its allies, and therefore it's very hard 479 00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:15,440 Speaker 4: to break those relationships. I think that's wishful thinking. But 480 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:20,240 Speaker 4: on the other hand, if we look at Pacific island governments, 481 00:28:21,200 --> 00:28:27,439 Speaker 4: there's been a history of political leaders that deal with 482 00:28:27,600 --> 00:28:33,240 Speaker 4: things in a very transactional basis, not a similar to 483 00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:38,720 Speaker 4: the Chinese, and so in that so they can be bought, yeah, yeah, 484 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 4: But then you can say that. 485 00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,320 Speaker 3: But on the other hand, you can also say, well, 486 00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:45,840 Speaker 3: they can be flipped. 487 00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:47,840 Speaker 1: Back again, that's right. So they're not going to be 488 00:28:47,880 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 1: ideologically loyal to child whoever gives them the biggest deal, 489 00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:52,840 Speaker 1: the best. 490 00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:57,360 Speaker 4: So we've got increasingly I suspect we've got to think 491 00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:03,000 Speaker 4: of our region as one where our hitherto friends and 492 00:29:03,160 --> 00:29:07,760 Speaker 4: allies are going to be driven by their immediate interests 493 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,239 Speaker 4: and what's in it for them, and understandably so on 494 00:29:11,240 --> 00:29:16,720 Speaker 4: one level, and that they will neither quite be forever 495 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:20,520 Speaker 4: friends or forever enemies, and on. 496 00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:25,320 Speaker 1: The sort of bigger international picture. Even as we speak now, 497 00:29:25,480 --> 00:29:29,560 Speaker 1: there seems to be escalating tensions between China and the US. 498 00:29:29,600 --> 00:29:32,440 Speaker 1: We know that Donald Trump is prepared to launch a 499 00:29:32,480 --> 00:29:36,600 Speaker 1: trade war against China and is doing that. China is 500 00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:40,560 Speaker 1: responding saying it's prepared for any kind of war and 501 00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:44,000 Speaker 1: it will and you know it is never going to 502 00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:46,440 Speaker 1: back down, obviously, this is what it is going to say. 503 00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 1: How real do you think the prospect is any kind 504 00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:57,520 Speaker 1: of armed conflict between these two powers? You know, more 505 00:29:57,640 --> 00:29:59,840 Speaker 1: likely I imagine as a sort of proxy war over 506 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:03,640 Speaker 1: something like Taiwan or I mean, how worried are you 507 00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:05,480 Speaker 1: about things escalating? 508 00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:14,120 Speaker 4: I'm very concerned because I feel that what the US 509 00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:21,240 Speaker 4: is doing with Europe allows China and its allies Russia 510 00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:26,080 Speaker 4: to say, well, hey, let's open up two fronts here. Okay, 511 00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:31,120 Speaker 4: we'll open up one big front in Europe, and that 512 00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:34,200 Speaker 4: leaves the US vulnerable in the Pacific and they'll be 513 00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:37,120 Speaker 4: very stretched, and China can do that thing in the Pacific, 514 00:30:37,680 --> 00:30:42,000 Speaker 4: and maybe the US can't tend to two places at once. 515 00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:46,680 Speaker 4: And plus, because the current US administration has been going 516 00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:52,920 Speaker 4: after it's hitherto allies as well query whether if anything 517 00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:57,520 Speaker 4: were to happen in the Pacific there would be the 518 00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:01,960 Speaker 4: same level of willingness to work with the US on some. 519 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:02,840 Speaker 3: Of these issues. 520 00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:08,600 Speaker 4: We're still at a more fundamental level what we've witnessed 521 00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:12,440 Speaker 4: in the last week in relation to Ukraine. I know 522 00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:16,680 Speaker 4: just even just looking at Chinese language social media that 523 00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:21,280 Speaker 4: a lot of Taiwanese are very nervous about the US's 524 00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:25,600 Speaker 4: intentions when it comes to what would happen to Taiwan 525 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:28,000 Speaker 4: if China were to invade there? 526 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:28,720 Speaker 2: You go yeah. 527 00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:33,120 Speaker 1: Likewise, And just finally, Kevin, what do you think is 528 00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:37,400 Speaker 1: the best strategy for Australia to adopt in dealing with China. 529 00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:39,440 Speaker 1: Do we need to be stronger or do we need 530 00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:41,400 Speaker 1: to accept that these are things we are just going 531 00:31:41,400 --> 00:31:44,080 Speaker 1: to have to tolerate. Do we hopefully wait for their 532 00:31:44,080 --> 00:31:48,320 Speaker 1: economy to slow down on their population bubble to burst? 533 00:31:48,720 --> 00:31:50,960 Speaker 2: How do how do we face this threat? How do 534 00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:51,600 Speaker 2: we deal with it? 535 00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:59,280 Speaker 3: There are different levels in relation to all of this. 536 00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:03,840 Speaker 4: On the economic front, I know that there's been a 537 00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:07,560 Speaker 4: lot of talk about diversification away from China and how 538 00:32:07,640 --> 00:32:11,400 Speaker 4: easy or hard it might be. The reality is that 539 00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:16,680 Speaker 4: whether or not China is a threat, diversification is inevitable 540 00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:20,880 Speaker 4: because the Chinese economy is going through a structural slowdown. 541 00:32:22,160 --> 00:32:24,520 Speaker 4: Whether they're a friend or a foe, if they can 542 00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:27,160 Speaker 4: no longer afford to buy your stuff, you've got to 543 00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:28,240 Speaker 4: find other customers. 544 00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:29,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, right, Helloweenia. 545 00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:37,880 Speaker 4: On the more sort of security side of things, I 546 00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:43,560 Speaker 4: guess what Australia needs to do would be a little 547 00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:50,280 Speaker 4: bit like what say owners of night clubs need to 548 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:54,840 Speaker 4: do when they deal with organized crime that want to extract. 549 00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:57,160 Speaker 3: Stuff out of them. 550 00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,880 Speaker 4: In terms of security consultancy agreement, send the light. 551 00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:06,120 Speaker 3: You've got to the world's full of nasty people. 552 00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:10,000 Speaker 4: You can't say, oh, I'm never going to deal with them, 553 00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:12,600 Speaker 4: but you've got to be very clear eyed about what 554 00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:15,760 Speaker 4: they are. Like the nightclub owner would be about you 555 00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:17,600 Speaker 4: know what gangs they're dealing with? 556 00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:19,600 Speaker 3: Right, treat China. 557 00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:21,040 Speaker 1: Well. 558 00:33:21,200 --> 00:33:25,640 Speaker 4: Treat the Chinese Communist Party like the math FIA. You know, 559 00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,800 Speaker 4: you know, sometimes you can't avoid them, but always be 560 00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:30,760 Speaker 4: very wary of them. 561 00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:34,440 Speaker 1: That is a very very strong and wise piece of advice, 562 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,200 Speaker 1: Kevin Yam. I could talk about you and talk with 563 00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:39,280 Speaker 1: you forever about this, but we have to go. Thank 564 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:43,680 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. Thank you, and that's 565 00:33:43,720 --> 00:33:45,400 Speaker 1: all we have time for this week. Thank you so 566 00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,920 Speaker 1: much for your company as always. God, I love it, God, 567 00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:49,800 Speaker 1: I love you always having a good time. And I 568 00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:51,880 Speaker 1: know you are too. I know you just there listening God. 569 00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:55,080 Speaker 1: If you'd like to express that in another way, you 570 00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:56,920 Speaker 1: can always leave us a rating, You can leave us 571 00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,520 Speaker 1: a review. You can no longer access me on any 572 00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:02,920 Speaker 1: form of side social media. I've basically been hacked int 573 00:34:02,960 --> 00:34:03,520 Speaker 1: of my life. 574 00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:05,720 Speaker 2: I don't know where I am or what I'm doing. 575 00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:08,279 Speaker 1: I don't know my password for my Facebook, can't get 576 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:10,759 Speaker 1: into my Instagram account. 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