WEBVTT - Sharri | 12 June 0:00:01.600 --> 0:00:03.279 Live on Sky News. 0:00:03.840 --> 0:00:05.600 This is Sharry. 0:00:06.840 --> 0:00:09.360 Good evening and yes, As Andrew said, let's start with 0:00:09.440 --> 0:00:13.000 the major breaking news. An Air India flight to London 0:00:13.360 --> 0:00:15.880 has crashed with at least two hundred and forty four 0:00:15.920 --> 0:00:19.280 people on board and a warning. This footage is distressing. 0:00:19.840 --> 0:00:22.520 The plane came down in a built up residential area 0:00:22.760 --> 0:00:26.680 up of ah Medabat, a city in western India. The 0:00:26.800 --> 0:00:31.600 airline has tonight confirmed just minutes ago there were one 0:00:31.680 --> 0:00:36.760 hundred and sixty nine Indian nationals, fifty three British citizens, 0:00:37.240 --> 0:00:42.400 one Canadian and seven Portuguese nationals on board. The aircraft 0:00:42.440 --> 0:00:47.440 reportedly gave a may day call indicating an emergency just 0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:51.440 moments after takeoff, but after that there was no response 0:00:51.680 --> 0:00:52.600 from the pilots. 0:00:53.280 --> 0:00:54.320 These are chilling. 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:58.200 Pictures of the aircraft coming down, this tragedy unfolding just 0:00:58.400 --> 0:01:01.800 in the last hour. There are believed to be two 0:01:01.960 --> 0:01:05.720 hundred and thirty two passengers and twelve crew on board. 0:01:06.400 --> 0:01:08.920 As Andrew said, it would be a miracle if there 0:01:08.920 --> 0:01:12.480 were any survivors. And you can see in this footage 0:01:12.520 --> 0:01:16.520 the thick smoke from the crash site. It's reportedly an 0:01:16.640 --> 0:01:20.920 Air India Boeing seven eight seven Dreamliner that was bound 0:01:21.200 --> 0:01:25.400 for London's Gatwick Airport and it's understood to have crashed 0:01:25.560 --> 0:01:31.480 not long after it departed. Sada vallibu Ptu International Airport, 0:01:32.520 --> 0:01:35.120 India released this statement just minutes ago. 0:01:35.000 --> 0:01:36.720 Confirming this tragic news. 0:01:37.280 --> 0:01:41.560 They said, India confirms that flight A one seven to 0:01:41.640 --> 0:01:45.560 one from Ahmadabad to London Gatwik was involved in an 0:01:45.600 --> 0:01:49.480 accident today after takeoff, so they're calling it an accident. 0:01:50.120 --> 0:01:53.960 The flight, which departed at thirteen thirty eight hours, was 0:01:54.000 --> 0:01:57.480 carrying two hundred and forty two passengers and crew members 0:01:57.480 --> 0:02:01.360 on board the Boeing seven eight seven to eight aircraft. 0:02:02.160 --> 0:02:02.840 Of these, one. 0:02:02.800 --> 0:02:06.360 Hundred and sixty nine are Indian nationals, fifty three are 0:02:06.400 --> 0:02:12.040 British nationals, one Canadian national and seven Portuguese nationals. The 0:02:12.160 --> 0:02:16.799 injured are being taken to the nearest hospitals now. This 0:02:16.880 --> 0:02:21.760 is absolutely tragic news. Two hundred and forty people on board. 0:02:22.120 --> 0:02:25.080 India have said they will be of course cooperating with 0:02:25.200 --> 0:02:31.399 authorities as they investigate what went on just moments after takeoff, 0:02:31.720 --> 0:02:35.840 when that mayday call came through just seconds after they 0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:39.000 took off, and after that there was no contact at 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:43.480 all with the air carrier before it crashed. Now we're 0:02:43.480 --> 0:02:45.600 going to keep you updated as we hear more throughout 0:02:45.600 --> 0:02:48.640 the hour. But right now I'm joined by Skynese contributor 0:02:48.760 --> 0:02:52.160 Emily car By. Emily, thanks for your time. What more 0:02:52.240 --> 0:02:52.680 do we know? 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:54.880 What are we learning about this tragic accident? 0:02:56.280 --> 0:02:59.079 Well, absolutely shocking and as you see, an absolute tragedy. 0:02:59.120 --> 0:03:01.360 It is hard to imagine that anyone has been able 0:03:01.400 --> 0:03:04.320 to survive this, This plane that was headed to London 0:03:04.320 --> 0:03:08.480 Gatwick one of our major airports here in London, just 0:03:08.520 --> 0:03:10.840 a standard flight. There are so many of these flies 0:03:10.880 --> 0:03:14.240 that leave from India to arrive in London. And we 0:03:14.360 --> 0:03:17.839 find out that fifty three British nationals more on board, 0:03:17.880 --> 0:03:20.560 one hundred and sixty nine Indians, one Canadian and seven 0:03:20.639 --> 0:03:25.760 Portuguese as well. Devastating news for Britain's this morning to 0:03:26.000 --> 0:03:28.080 hear a lot of people here will be checking whether 0:03:28.120 --> 0:03:30.520 they have relatives on board. As you may know, there 0:03:30.520 --> 0:03:34.320 are a huge number of British Indians in this country 0:03:34.360 --> 0:03:37.360 and Indian nationals as well, who may well have been 0:03:37.360 --> 0:03:40.840 coming to Britain after visiting relatives in India, or had 0:03:40.840 --> 0:03:44.400 been traveling for example, or for many reasons would have 0:03:44.400 --> 0:03:47.640 been flying back to London, and for this devastating incident 0:03:47.680 --> 0:03:50.640 to have taken place is truly truly shocking. 0:03:50.720 --> 0:03:52.360 Air India has a pretty. 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:56.600 High record when it comes to safety, this particular this 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:59.960 particular plane as well, a Boeing seven eight seven Dreamliner, 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:02.200 relatively new model. 0:04:02.560 --> 0:04:03.640 We're hearing also. 0:04:03.440 --> 0:04:07.920 From the India Aviation Regulator that the captain who was 0:04:07.960 --> 0:04:10.400 on board, who was in charge of this flight, he 0:04:10.440 --> 0:04:14.160 had two hundred hours of flying experience. The co pilot 0:04:14.360 --> 0:04:17.640 had over one thousand hours of flying experience. These weren't 0:04:17.640 --> 0:04:22.080 inexperienced pilots flying this plane, which begs the question what 0:04:22.320 --> 0:04:25.080 on earth happened? And we're finding out slowly more and 0:04:25.120 --> 0:04:28.000 more detail. It appears that this plane was in the 0:04:28.040 --> 0:04:30.920 air for such a short amount of time before it 0:04:30.960 --> 0:04:32.960 then crashed to the ground. And we've all seen the 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:36.559 images here that you're playing, those huge black smoke clouds. 0:04:36.600 --> 0:04:39.960 We've also seen fireballs as well. This is a truly 0:04:40.080 --> 0:04:43.680 shocking event and to hear fifty three British on board 0:04:43.839 --> 0:04:46.880 as well is devastating news for us here in London. 0:04:47.760 --> 0:04:50.279 And we can show you the footage of the moment 0:04:50.800 --> 0:04:53.760 the plane crashed and just a warning to everyone at home. 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:56.680 This is distressing footage. We are only going to play 0:04:56.680 --> 0:05:00.600 it once. So here is the moment the plane crashed, 0:05:01.160 --> 0:05:03.760 The moment the plane carrying two one hundred and forty 0:05:03.800 --> 0:05:11.280 two passengers including crew, went down. That is truly heartbreaking, 0:05:11.400 --> 0:05:15.320 devastating to watch. To think of all the families on board, 0:05:15.760 --> 0:05:17.920 and you know, we don't know for sure, of course, 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:21.520 but it's hard to imagine anyone survived that. Emily, in 0:05:21.560 --> 0:05:25.440 that statement from India, they are calling this an accident 0:05:25.440 --> 0:05:25.919 of costs. 0:05:25.960 --> 0:05:28.640 This happened in the past hour. We can't possibly know. 0:05:28.680 --> 0:05:31.920 The investigations haven't taken place yet, but they are calling 0:05:31.920 --> 0:05:32.760 it an accident. 0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:34.400 And there was that may Day. 0:05:34.279 --> 0:05:38.320 Call from the pilots not long after takeoff, so it 0:05:38.400 --> 0:05:41.880 does indicate at this early stage it was likely some 0:05:41.920 --> 0:05:45.359 sort of technical failure and as you've pointed out, the 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:47.680 pilots just had so much experience. 0:05:49.440 --> 0:05:50.960 Yeah, very unusual. 0:05:51.120 --> 0:05:54.880 Speaking to experts in aviation this morning, it does sound 0:05:54.920 --> 0:05:57.640 as though there are huge question marks when something like 0:05:57.720 --> 0:06:02.960 this happens. Of course, people that perhaps there is terrorism involved. 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:05.599 We in western Indian not far from Pakistan, so the 0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:07.920 mind goes in that direction. But it does appear from 0:06:07.920 --> 0:06:11.120 what we have been told so far that yes, it 0:06:11.160 --> 0:06:14.200 does appear to have been some kind of freak accident, 0:06:14.200 --> 0:06:17.159 but I'm sure more information will come very soon this 0:06:17.320 --> 0:06:20.800 morning here in Britain and of course in India. But yes, 0:06:21.000 --> 0:06:23.400 signal appears to have been lost. This according to flight 0:06:23.520 --> 0:06:28.440 Radar and also Air India. Seconds after takeoff, the plane 0:06:28.440 --> 0:06:31.479 had reached about six hundred or so feet in the 0:06:31.560 --> 0:06:35.280 air before then appearing to try and land the plane 0:06:35.320 --> 0:06:40.200 perhaps but then crashing down and in a residential area 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:45.880 reportedly or just outside of the airport. So potentially more 0:06:45.920 --> 0:06:48.800 deaths as well we could see, although we've had no 0:06:48.880 --> 0:06:52.240 confirmation on any fatalities so far, but I'm sure we'll 0:06:52.240 --> 0:06:55.599 heal more from the Indian authorities very soon when it 0:06:55.640 --> 0:06:59.200 comes to that. Of course, immediate rescue operations in place. 0:06:59.760 --> 0:07:02.800 In talking about being on a war footing when it 0:07:02.839 --> 0:07:05.599 comes to this type of incident. The airport has stopped 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:08.200 all scheduled flights for the rest of the day. We're 0:07:08.240 --> 0:07:12.080 also hearing from authorities over there. But yes, just to reiterate, really, 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:15.360 two hundred and forty two passengers on board this play 0:07:15.360 --> 0:07:17.800 in two hundred and forty two total, that includes twelve 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:22.240 crew as well, devastating for those families, devastating for the 0:07:22.280 --> 0:07:25.680 fifty three British nationals who were on board as well, 0:07:25.720 --> 0:07:27.960 and their families who'll be scrambling to try and get 0:07:27.960 --> 0:07:30.400 in touch to try and find out if their loved 0:07:30.400 --> 0:07:33.840 one was on board. This particular fight a true horror 0:07:33.920 --> 0:07:35.960 show beyond imagination. 0:07:36.120 --> 0:07:36.360 Really. 0:07:36.360 --> 0:07:39.080 That footage that you've just shown and more that's coming 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:41.600 up to social media as people take to their phones 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:42.840 and take to social media to. 0:07:42.800 --> 0:07:44.360 Share what they've seen. 0:07:44.440 --> 0:07:48.800 But as yet unclear what caused this disaster, but I'm 0:07:48.840 --> 0:07:51.040 sure we'll hear more from the authorities as the day 0:07:51.080 --> 0:07:51.440 goes on. 0:07:51.880 --> 0:07:54.880 Indeed, and minute by minute we are getting more information 0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:58.280 on this, so we will keep everyone updated. Emily Carva, 0:07:58.320 --> 0:08:00.960 appreciate your time, thank you very much, and we will 0:08:01.040 --> 0:08:04.760 keep bringing you updates throughout the hour as they come 0:08:04.800 --> 0:08:07.320 to light. The details are coming in thick and fast. 0:08:07.640 --> 0:08:08.720 But i'd to have a look at some of the 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:11.600 other news around today and coming up in the show tonight, 0:08:11.760 --> 0:08:15.120 our exclusive on the real reason why the Trump administration 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:18.560 has ordered a review of Orcas I'll tell you what 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:22.520 President Trump is frustrated with Albanezi about that scoop in 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:24.160 a minute, Plus are. 0:08:24.000 --> 0:08:25.960 We on the brink of war with Iran? 0:08:26.360 --> 0:08:29.400 Defense expert Peter Jennings will give his view on whether 0:08:29.480 --> 0:08:32.640 America and Israel are poised. 0:08:32.320 --> 0:08:34.480 To strike t RAN's nuclear sites. 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:39.000 Plus Outrage after the corruption watchdog cleared the two point 0:08:39.080 --> 0:08:42.760 four million dollar payout to Britney Higgins Michaylia. 0:08:42.400 --> 0:08:44.200 Cash will be on the show tonight. 0:08:45.480 --> 0:08:48.720 But first I can reveal the Trump administration is using 0:08:48.840 --> 0:08:52.240 a review of the Orcas submarine deal as leverage to 0:08:52.320 --> 0:08:54.000 force Albernese's. 0:08:53.360 --> 0:08:54.880 Hand on defense spending. 0:08:55.400 --> 0:08:59.320 The United States President and his officials are frustrated firstly 0:08:59.400 --> 0:09:03.560 with Albanize his refusal to increase defense spending, Secondly his 0:09:03.760 --> 0:09:08.040 flippant attitude that defense is an issue of sovereignty. And 0:09:08.080 --> 0:09:11.520 they're also concerned about his commitment to the Alliance and 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:16.520 his refusal to robustly call out China's aggressions in our region. 0:09:17.120 --> 0:09:20.240 The Pentagon announced today a review of the Orcas submarine deal, 0:09:20.360 --> 0:09:24.680 in a dramatic move that puts into doubt our defense future. 0:09:25.360 --> 0:09:25.520 Now. 0:09:25.600 --> 0:09:29.760 Senior national security sources told me today that Australia should 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:33.880 have been proactive on the defense budget, particularly after Europe 0:09:33.960 --> 0:09:37.520 signed up to a three point five percent target, Yet 0:09:37.559 --> 0:09:41.800 Australia's position was to keep spending at just under two percent, 0:09:42.360 --> 0:09:44.400 and this was never going to be sustainable. 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:46.200 It's considered a joke. 0:09:46.280 --> 0:09:49.640 In the current strategic environment, which even the Prime Minister 0:09:49.720 --> 0:09:54.280 acknowledges is the most volatile in recent history. The Trump 0:09:54.320 --> 0:09:58.080 administration gave Australia time and space on the issue of 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:01.720 defense spending so as not to interfere with our federal 0:10:01.760 --> 0:10:05.440 election cycle. They were also waiting to see the outcome. 0:10:06.600 --> 0:10:10.840 But confidential sources told me today the Trump administration is 0:10:10.920 --> 0:10:15.240 extremely serious about needing Australia to lift its game on 0:10:15.320 --> 0:10:20.640 defense spending, and this is irrespective of Jim Chalmers' budget constraints. 0:10:21.400 --> 0:10:24.880 US Defense Secretary Pete Haigseth made the point directly to 0:10:24.960 --> 0:10:28.320 our Defense Minister Richard Miles at the Shangri La Dialogue 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:32.800 in Singapore, and Miles then audaciously shied away from publicly 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:36.959 revealing the figure that the United States was pushing Australia 0:10:37.200 --> 0:10:40.600 to spend. So hag Seth then put it out there 0:10:40.640 --> 0:10:44.400 publicly that in his view, Australia should be spending three 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:47.360 and a half percent of our GDP on defense. 0:10:48.320 --> 0:10:52.160 NATLE members are pledging to spend five percent of their 0:10:52.200 --> 0:10:56.440 GDP on defense, even Germany, So it doesn't make sense 0:10:56.440 --> 0:10:59.120 for countries in Europe to do that, while key allies 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:03.000 in Asia spend less on defense in the face of 0:11:03.040 --> 0:11:05.040 an even more formidable threat. 0:11:06.360 --> 0:11:10.439 But this issue escalated further when Albanezi said that defense 0:11:10.480 --> 0:11:12.960 spending was an issue of sovereignty. 0:11:14.200 --> 0:11:18.360 Well, I think that Australia should decide what we spend 0:11:18.640 --> 0:11:23.520 on Australia's defense, simple as that. Look, what you should 0:11:23.559 --> 0:11:28.319 do in defense is decide what you need, your capability 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:32.200 and then provide for it. That's what my government's doing. 0:11:32.600 --> 0:11:35.360 We determine our defense policy here. 0:11:37.200 --> 0:11:40.560 I can reveal that the United States views that response 0:11:40.600 --> 0:11:45.720 from Albanezi as unseerious and staggering, the idea that Australia 0:11:45.760 --> 0:11:48.440 believes it should get a free pass from increasing our 0:11:48.480 --> 0:11:51.599 defense spend for no good reason when the rest of 0:11:51.640 --> 0:11:55.160 the world is prepared to play its part. The Native 0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:58.600 partners and others have clearly seen the threat and are 0:11:58.640 --> 0:12:02.079 prepared to step up. Australia has made a point of 0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:05.400 sticking with the Paris Agreement, not wanting to be out 0:12:05.400 --> 0:12:08.240 of step with the international community when it comes to 0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:11.760 climate action, and yet they're not taking the same attitude 0:12:11.800 --> 0:12:16.040 to defense spending. And this is Australia embarrassing itself. 0:12:16.080 --> 0:12:20.439 Albanizi is showing that he's not a serious player. Now. 0:12:20.480 --> 0:12:23.640 Australian defense officials were in Washington just a few weeks 0:12:23.640 --> 0:12:26.920 ago and they know very well the expectation from the 0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:30.839 United States. The Albanzi government was on notice. 0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:35.160 Now. The third part to this orchestra review is that the. 0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:39.559 Trump administration is looking for Albanesi to reinforce his commitment 0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:43.319 to the US Alliance. More broadly, the view is that 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:46.679 he should be prepared to call out China, something he's 0:12:46.720 --> 0:12:51.679 refused to do, even when China takes egregious action against Australia. 0:12:52.280 --> 0:12:55.680 While Albanesi insists defense spending is a matter of sovereignty, 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:58.400 as you just heard, well, he wasn't so strong on 0:12:58.600 --> 0:13:03.840 sovereignty when it came into a Chinese warship circumnavigating our coast. 0:13:04.440 --> 0:13:07.920 The People's Liberation Army Task Group one oh seven launched 0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:11.920 live fire exercises west of Hobart, yet there was barely 0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:15.719 a peep from our Prime minister, and this astounded the 0:13:15.800 --> 0:13:16.920 United States government. 0:13:17.480 --> 0:13:19.319 Their view is Australia's. 0:13:18.679 --> 0:13:21.880 Response should be more robust and we should at least 0:13:22.320 --> 0:13:29.120 call out this provocative behavior from China. Instead, Albanesi defended it. 0:13:29.840 --> 0:13:33.559 The United States has also already publicly expressed its disappointment 0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:38.720 with the Alberanzi government's hostile position on Israel, and Albanesi 0:13:38.800 --> 0:13:41.880 is also moving against America's interests at the United Nations 0:13:42.360 --> 0:13:45.800 and in other foreign policy areas with respect to Israel. 0:13:47.080 --> 0:13:51.880 So Pentagon's review of ORCUS is entirely self inflicted and 0:13:51.960 --> 0:13:56.800 owing to Albanesi's juvenile conduct and weak foreign policy that's 0:13:56.880 --> 0:14:00.480 out of step with the United States. I'm a Prime 0:14:00.520 --> 0:14:04.120 Minister Scott Morrison did the hard work getting ORCUS over. 0:14:03.920 --> 0:14:08.679 The line, and now and now Albanesi could lose the deal. 0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:12.600 Morrison today said the Albanese government needed to keep making 0:14:12.640 --> 0:14:16.679 the case for ORCUS. His impression is that Trump had 0:14:16.679 --> 0:14:20.680 always been committed to it. But he also expressed the 0:14:20.720 --> 0:14:24.400 point that Australia needs to make it clear that we 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:27.840 are aligned on the threat that China poses. 0:14:28.800 --> 0:14:30.560 And the second thing is, you know, we have to 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:34.480 be very clear that we share the strategic content, which 0:14:34.520 --> 0:14:37.680 is the deterrence to aggresses in the Indo Pacific. That 0:14:37.800 --> 0:14:40.200 was a point we'd made strongly at the time, which 0:14:40.280 --> 0:14:44.960 was well understood and well appreciated, and I don't believe 0:14:45.000 --> 0:14:47.120 that there's been any fundamental. 0:14:46.600 --> 0:14:47.120 Change to that. 0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:50.200 I think the tone of that has changed, but I 0:14:50.240 --> 0:14:53.000 think the I think what I've heard from, particularly Minister 0:14:53.040 --> 0:14:57.280 Miles on this demonstrates that that intent is still weare. 0:14:58.640 --> 0:15:01.160 So that was Morrison speaking to Kieran Gilbert and he 0:15:01.280 --> 0:15:03.400 was very diplomatic there, as you heard when he said 0:15:03.400 --> 0:15:06.440 there'd been a change of tone from the Albanizi government 0:15:06.520 --> 0:15:07.080 on China. 0:15:07.200 --> 0:15:09.800 I mean, that's for sure, there's been a change of tone. 0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:13.000 Now many commentators and media outlets were today urging alban 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:17.080 Easy to renegotiate ORCAS as the Pentagon reviews whether to 0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:20.360 dump or change the deal. But as I said, this 0:15:20.640 --> 0:15:24.920 isn't particularly about ORCUS. It's about defense spending and our 0:15:25.000 --> 0:15:29.360 attitude to the Alliance. Former Australian Ambassador to Washington, Joe 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:34.160 Hockey realizes that defense spending was the major sticking point. 0:15:34.560 --> 0:15:38.600 We've learned from Ukraine. If you don't make your own weapons, 0:15:38.960 --> 0:15:43.240 if you don't build your own military, then you can't 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:47.680 necessarily rely on foreigners. To pick up the tabs when 0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:50.360 you really need it. We partner with them, we need 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:52.560 them as a partner, but we have to have our 0:15:52.640 --> 0:15:53.840 own industrial base. 0:15:55.240 --> 0:15:58.560 Unless albin Easy changes his tune in the next few days, 0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:01.160 he won't have an easy meeting with Trump on the 0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:05.400 sidelines of the G seven. Now ALBINIZI may not personally 0:16:05.440 --> 0:16:09.640 care about that Trump is out of favor politically in Australia, 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:14.400 but he should care. Trump controls the US commitment to Orcus, 0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:17.160 which is critical for the protection. 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:17.600 Of our nation. 0:16:18.440 --> 0:16:22.320 Now, primarily the orcust review is leverage over alban EASi 0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:26.280 for an increased defense commitment. Trump has got Alban Easy 0:16:26.440 --> 0:16:29.840 over a barrel, and if he loses Ucus under his watch, 0:16:30.400 --> 0:16:34.360 it would be disastrous, particularly if he loses it because 0:16:34.360 --> 0:16:37.760 of his stubborn refusal to commit to a higher defense 0:16:38.000 --> 0:16:42.080 spending target. Now we know the Prime Minister isn't the 0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:45.760 smartest tool in the shed, but surely even he realizes 0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:48.560 it wouldn't be great for his own legacy if he 0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:53.000 destroyed Orcus and left Australia vulnerable to attack. 0:16:56.280 --> 0:16:57.160 Now are we on. 0:16:57.120 --> 0:17:00.960 The verge of war with Iran? There is speculation that 0:17:01.040 --> 0:17:04.960 a strike on Iran is imminent. This was partly sparked 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:10.880 by America withdrawing officials and their families across the Middle East. Now, 0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:14.760 destroying Iran's nuclear capability has been for a long time 0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:18.840 a strategic goal of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He 0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:22.439 wants to eliminate the nuclear threat Iran poses, not just 0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:26.639 to Israel, but the world. This move would either be 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:31.200 a joint operation between the US and Israel, or Israel 0:17:31.280 --> 0:17:33.520 could take military action with the. 0:17:33.440 --> 0:17:35.120 Backing of the United States. 0:17:35.880 --> 0:17:38.720 Now it's reported that Trump had asked Nedinyah who not 0:17:38.840 --> 0:17:43.520 to launch military strikes against Iran to avoid death and destruction, 0:17:44.000 --> 0:17:48.560 and that he preferred a path of negotiation. But Iran 0:17:48.680 --> 0:17:52.560 has now walked away from some five rounds of negotiation, 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:55.879 And the bottom line is Tehran is on the brink 0:17:55.880 --> 0:18:00.320 of developing a nuclear weapon. The US and Israel can't 0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:05.520 stand idly by and watch Iran build and potentially deploy 0:18:06.080 --> 0:18:10.400 nuclear weapons. So if there is a strike, and I think, 0:18:10.520 --> 0:18:13.000 if executed well, that it's the right thing to do. 0:18:13.800 --> 0:18:15.920 But if there is a strike, there is the risk 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:20.560 that Iran would then launch thousands of ballistic missiles towards 0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:25.040 Israel in response. The Iron Dome can handle an onslaught, 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:28.159 but there's a point where there's concern it may not 0:18:28.200 --> 0:18:31.399 be able to intercept all Iranian missiles. 0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:32.960 Depending on the volume launched. 0:18:33.480 --> 0:18:36.399 So we're going to watch this space closely over the 0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:39.920 coming days and to discuss this, let's bring in strategic 0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:42.280 analysis Australia Director Peter Jennings. 0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:44.199 Peter, thanks so much for your time. 0:18:44.640 --> 0:18:47.600 Now, what's your assessment on whether Israel and America are 0:18:47.880 --> 0:18:51.840 poised to strike Iran? Do you think this move to 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:55.840 remove American officials is grand standing to get a deal 0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:58.280 done with Iran or do you think it's set to 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:02.360 happen with Israel now giving American staff time to get 0:19:02.359 --> 0:19:03.159 out of the region. 0:19:04.720 --> 0:19:07.679 I don't think it's grandstanding. I think we are getting 0:19:07.680 --> 0:19:10.080 pretty close to a time when a strike is going 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:14.680 to happen, and withdrawing non essential embassy staff is pretty 0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:17.040 much the last thing that the Americans need to do. 0:19:18.680 --> 0:19:22.440 Trump's style here is to give him credit. He attempted 0:19:22.480 --> 0:19:25.520 to have a negotiation with the Iranians. There were five 0:19:26.400 --> 0:19:29.960 rounds of negotiations, but I think Trump will realize that 0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:32.760 that was getting nowhere and we'll very quickly move back 0:19:32.800 --> 0:19:38.200 to what Israel has wanted to do pretty much since December, 0:19:39.119 --> 0:19:42.280 and that strike while they still can before Iran does 0:19:42.280 --> 0:19:45.560 get nuclear weapons and before they're able to rebuild a 0:19:45.600 --> 0:19:48.720 significant part of their air defense capabilities which were destroyed 0:19:48.760 --> 0:19:52.639 in a previous strike. So I think we are now 0:19:52.680 --> 0:19:55.960 getting pretty close to a strike that the final piece 0:19:56.040 --> 0:19:59.040 being that America has to decide that they want to 0:19:59.040 --> 0:20:02.480 support Israel for the purpose, and I think by looking 0:20:02.480 --> 0:20:04.920 at the withdrawal of staff, we're now seeing that that's 0:20:05.000 --> 0:20:06.560 the decision that the US has come to. 0:20:07.520 --> 0:20:11.520 Does Israel have the capability militarily to launch this strike 0:20:11.640 --> 0:20:16.800 on its own or would it need US weaponry as well. 0:20:17.080 --> 0:20:19.639 It can launch a strike on its own in the 0:20:19.720 --> 0:20:22.440 sense of being able to go after the target set 0:20:22.480 --> 0:20:25.840 that it wants to hit, it needs the Americans to 0:20:26.040 --> 0:20:29.960 help them identify the targets to then do space based 0:20:30.000 --> 0:20:32.600 battle damage assessment to work out where they have to 0:20:32.640 --> 0:20:36.000 go back to hit a second time. They probably need 0:20:36.040 --> 0:20:40.840 a bunker busting weapons from the Americans, and they certainly 0:20:40.880 --> 0:20:43.560 need American air defense capability in the form of a 0:20:43.640 --> 0:20:47.560 carrier's strike group or two in the Mediterranean to help 0:20:47.600 --> 0:20:52.359 shoot down drones and missiles coming from Iran because Irondome 0:20:52.560 --> 0:20:55.480 and the other Israeli air defense systems won't be able 0:20:55.520 --> 0:20:57.840 to do all of that themselves. So they can do 0:20:57.920 --> 0:21:02.800 a lot in terms of undertaking waves of strikes against targets, 0:21:03.400 --> 0:21:05.240 but they do need the Americans to assist them, and 0:21:05.280 --> 0:21:09.440 a whole bunch of factors that makes that Israeli sharp 0:21:09.520 --> 0:21:11.240 end of the sphere possible. 0:21:11.880 --> 0:21:15.560 I mean, it's without question that Israel would need America's 0:21:15.600 --> 0:21:19.199 backing cooperation agreement to launch this, and it's obviously been 0:21:19.240 --> 0:21:22.920 the subject of numerous rounds of discussions between NAT and 0:21:23.000 --> 0:21:27.280 Yahoo and Trump probably over many years. But it's the 0:21:27.400 --> 0:21:31.080 level of US involvement that we don't know where yet 0:21:31.119 --> 0:21:33.879 to see. I mean, obviously it wouldn't go ahead without 0:21:34.200 --> 0:21:37.080 US agreement, But you know, I think that's what's going to. 0:21:37.000 --> 0:21:38.119 Be fascinating to watch. 0:21:38.359 --> 0:21:41.280 When you say you expect it to go ahead in 0:21:42.280 --> 0:21:45.320 the near future, are you prepared to put any time 0:21:45.400 --> 0:21:50.560 frame on that. Are you hearing anything definitive at all? 0:21:50.600 --> 0:21:54.000 Well, if I'm hearing anything, then that would not be good. 0:21:55.600 --> 0:21:58.440 It won't be it won't take long because you don't 0:21:58.440 --> 0:22:00.440 want to give the Uranians any more time than they've 0:22:00.440 --> 0:22:04.120 already got to get themselves ready for this. This has 0:22:04.119 --> 0:22:06.879 been delayed for some months, probably since the beginning of 0:22:06.920 --> 0:22:11.119 the year. I think that was because Trump was wanting 0:22:11.160 --> 0:22:13.399 to see if he couldn't find a diplomatic solution, and 0:22:13.440 --> 0:22:15.320 he should get some credit for trying that. 0:22:16.200 --> 0:22:17.040 But once. 0:22:18.280 --> 0:22:20.320 The US and Israel have decided that this is what 0:22:20.359 --> 0:22:23.080 they need to do, they have to move fast, so 0:22:23.680 --> 0:22:24.960 I would expect it pretty soon. 0:22:25.359 --> 0:22:28.720 I think his change of attitude Trump has been surprising 0:22:28.760 --> 0:22:31.080 because when he first got into offics, he kind of 0:22:31.119 --> 0:22:34.119 said he will give Israel full backing to do whatever 0:22:34.160 --> 0:22:37.440 at once in Gaza after Hermas refused to release the hostages, 0:22:37.480 --> 0:22:40.359 and now he seemed to change tune and become this 0:22:40.720 --> 0:22:42.959 pacifist who wants to avoid death and destruction. I mean, 0:22:42.960 --> 0:22:47.359 the inconsistency in his approach has been unusual. But nevertheless, 0:22:47.440 --> 0:22:49.120 Peter Jennings really appreciate your time. 0:22:50.000 --> 0:22:50.320 Thank you. 0:22:51.160 --> 0:22:54.240 Let's bring in our Thursday panel, our WA opposition leader 0:22:54.280 --> 0:22:56.600 Basil Zamplus and National Senator Matt. 0:22:56.440 --> 0:22:58.040 Canavan, and good to have you back. 0:22:58.160 --> 0:23:01.480 Basil, the Vans back together on I just want to 0:23:01.520 --> 0:23:04.240 get to start off with return to this plane crash 0:23:04.320 --> 0:23:07.640