1 00:00:00,200 --> 00:00:02,400 Speaker 1: Well, it's one week to go. At least in our time, 2 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,280 Speaker 1: America is a day behind us. But one week from 3 00:00:05,440 --> 00:00:09,160 Speaker 1: today votes will be cast in the US presidential election, 4 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:12,959 Speaker 1: and their neck and neck. Even in the swing states, 5 00:00:13,400 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 1: their neck and neck, and there's about seven of those 6 00:00:15,880 --> 00:00:20,160 Speaker 1: that each candidate or both candidates need to win. They'll 7 00:00:20,200 --> 00:00:23,000 Speaker 1: pick up what they will normally pick up. The blue states. 8 00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: The red states will be solidly behind their respective candidates, 9 00:00:26,840 --> 00:00:30,240 Speaker 1: but there's around seven or so swing states that will 10 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: make the difference. It's a state by state election, not 11 00:00:34,479 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 1: a national poll as such, so you read the national 12 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:41,200 Speaker 1: polls irrelevant. Really, it's what happens in places like Pennsylvania 13 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 1: and Georgia and Arizona and a few others Nevada that 14 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: will make the difference in this election. Let's have a 15 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:50,199 Speaker 1: chat about all of that. Associate Professor David Smith is 16 00:00:50,360 --> 00:00:54,080 Speaker 1: on the line from the US Studies Center, University of Sydney. David, 17 00:00:54,080 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: good morning, Good morning. It is fascinating, isn't it, And 18 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:01,400 Speaker 1: probably the closest since Gore Bush back in two thousand. 19 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, there has never been an election since then 20 00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:11,560 Speaker 2: where no candidate has had a solid lead for a 21 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:15,120 Speaker 2: long time at the moment, we're looking at lead that 22 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:19,440 Speaker 2: are less than a point in each of the swing states. 23 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 2: They've been like that for a long time. They somehow 24 00:01:22,360 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 2: keep getting even closer. It's just really impossible to tell 25 00:01:26,959 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 2: at this point who's going to win. Of course, the 26 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:32,839 Speaker 2: polls can be wrong. The last couple of elections, polls 27 00:01:32,840 --> 00:01:36,000 Speaker 2: have underestimated Trump support, so there are certainly a lot 28 00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:38,640 Speaker 2: of people in the betting markets who are placing bets 29 00:01:38,840 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 2: that they'll underestimate his support again. But Poles can go 30 00:01:42,720 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 2: wrong in both directions. In twenty twelve, Poles underestimated Barack Obama, 31 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:50,680 Speaker 2: so there's a chance that could be wrong in either direction. 32 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:54,320 Speaker 2: But whatever the case is, it is likely to be 33 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 2: very close, and we might not even know the results 34 00:01:57,800 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 2: for days or weeks afterwards. 35 00:02:00,080 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 1: Lot to unpack there. Firstly, pearls being wrong. Have they 36 00:02:03,320 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 1: over well, they've certainly corrected the last time, but they 37 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:09,720 Speaker 1: were still wrong. Could they have over corrected this time 38 00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:12,920 Speaker 1: and it's really Harris who might benefit. 39 00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:16,160 Speaker 2: That is always a possibility, and this will be an 40 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:19,519 Speaker 2: absolute nightmare for pulsters because all of them have been 41 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 2: trying to correct for their underestimation of Trump. For one 42 00:02:24,600 --> 00:02:28,320 Speaker 2: of the ways that they do this is they ask 43 00:02:28,520 --> 00:02:32,079 Speaker 2: voters who they voted for last time around, and they 44 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:34,720 Speaker 2: try to make sure that they've got a representative mix 45 00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 2: of those voters in their sample. So about forty six 46 00:02:38,240 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 2: percent of voters voted for Trump last time around. If 47 00:02:41,000 --> 00:02:42,880 Speaker 2: they look at their sample and see that they've only 48 00:02:42,880 --> 00:02:45,480 Speaker 2: got thirty six percent who voted for Trump, they will 49 00:02:45,560 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 2: wait those voters more heavily in the survey result. Now, 50 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:53,720 Speaker 2: that could be a way of ensuring that they don't 51 00:02:53,880 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 2: miss Trump voters this time, but there's been all kinds 52 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:01,440 Speaker 2: of research done saying people's memories are very unreliable when 53 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 2: they talk about who they voted for last time, so 54 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:09,160 Speaker 2: that could actually introduce new sources of error into the poll. So, look, 55 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:12,000 Speaker 2: they're all doing their death. We won't know until election 56 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:13,040 Speaker 2: day who's got it right. 57 00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:16,880 Speaker 1: The closeness of the poles, given the distance Trump and 58 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:21,040 Speaker 1: Biden had in when Biden was the candidate, you get 59 00:03:21,040 --> 00:03:24,080 Speaker 1: the feeling, even with Harris there now as the candidate, 60 00:03:24,520 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 1: that if any other republic Can had won the primaries, 61 00:03:28,000 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: Desantas or Nicki Hayley, they'd been streets ahead of Harris. 62 00:03:32,600 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 2: Yeah, you are absolutely right, And when you consider how 63 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:41,880 Speaker 2: badly Americans have rated the economy over the last four 64 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:47,000 Speaker 2: years and how low Joe Biden's approval ratings are. Classically 65 00:03:47,200 --> 00:03:52,000 Speaker 2: those two indicators would show that the opposition party is 66 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:54,880 Speaker 2: headed for a landslide. The fact that they are not 67 00:03:55,360 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 2: headed for a landslide really shows that another candidate other 68 00:04:00,360 --> 00:04:03,600 Speaker 2: than Trump probably could have done a lot better than this, 69 00:04:03,800 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 2: because the price shocks that we've seen from inflation in 70 00:04:07,400 --> 00:04:11,080 Speaker 2: the US are the worst since the nineteen seventies, and 71 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 2: they have continued to inflict real pain on people, especially 72 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:17,600 Speaker 2: when it comes to house prices, which is one of 73 00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 2: the most important things that people have to deal with, 74 00:04:20,080 --> 00:04:23,240 Speaker 2: and house prices that means high rent prices as well. 75 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 2: So just about every American has really felt the pinch 76 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:29,960 Speaker 2: over the last four years. This is the sort of 77 00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:32,919 Speaker 2: thing that you would usually just imagine the governing party 78 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:36,279 Speaker 2: would be completely tipped out of office. Instead, it's about 79 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:37,280 Speaker 2: as close as it yet. 80 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,680 Speaker 1: We're getting to the final stages here. We're going to 81 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:43,480 Speaker 1: see more rallies I imagine probably one a day potentially 82 00:04:43,480 --> 00:04:47,200 Speaker 1: between now and the election. And has Kamala Harris made 83 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 1: an error in targeting Trump as heavily I've read articles 84 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:53,279 Speaker 1: the last few days. She seems to be following the 85 00:04:53,440 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 1: patterns set by Hillary Clinton, just attacking the opponent. Nothing 86 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: positive coming out of it, nothing concrete about the future. 87 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:05,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that this strategy is because Kamala Harris 88 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 2: believes that this election is going to be won with 89 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 2: Republican voters who are unhappy with Trump. I honestly think 90 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 2: right from the beginning of her campaign that's the main 91 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 2: group she's been targeting. She's been targeting the kind of 92 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:24,600 Speaker 2: people who voted for Nicki Hayley in the Republican primary. 93 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 2: She thinks that there's probably this group of about five 94 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:30,560 Speaker 2: percent of voters who are on the fence about whether 95 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 2: they would vote for Trump or vote for Harris or 96 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:37,000 Speaker 2: stay home. There aren't that many undersided Americans out there, 97 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 2: but there probably is a group of Republicans who just 98 00:05:40,400 --> 00:05:43,000 Speaker 2: don't know whether they can bring themselves to vote for Trump. 99 00:05:43,200 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 2: That Harris's theory of the election. Anyway, I don't know 100 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:50,400 Speaker 2: that it's going to work. If Harris loses, I think 101 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:54,279 Speaker 2: there'll be a lot of blame rightfully leveled that she 102 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 2: didn't really offer very much news, she didn't really separate 103 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:02,159 Speaker 2: herself from Biden, very much at all. She has talked 104 00:06:02,200 --> 00:06:06,800 Speaker 2: about policies that she would like to implement, but nothing 105 00:06:06,839 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 2: particularly inspiring. It really has been about voting against Trump, 106 00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:16,240 Speaker 2: and it's a risky strategy because when you make everything 107 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:21,040 Speaker 2: all about Trump, there are circumstances in the past when 108 00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 2: that has really benefited from him. He really just seems 109 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 2: to feed off attention. So, yeah, we'll have to see 110 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:31,760 Speaker 2: you on election day whether this strategy has actually paid off. 111 00:06:31,880 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 2: If it doesn't, I think that Democrats are going to 112 00:06:34,680 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 2: rue the fact that they didn't really offer more positive 113 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 2: to people. 114 00:06:38,839 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 1: She hasn't done a lot of interviews. The ones she's 115 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:44,720 Speaker 1: done have mostly with a couple of exceptions, Fox been 116 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:47,720 Speaker 1: one have been softer interviews, you know, turning up for 117 00:06:47,760 --> 00:06:50,400 Speaker 1: the very first one with the vice presidential pick in 118 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:55,279 Speaker 1: Tim Waltz, and the questions were pretty soft ball. Perhaps 119 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 1: the lack of scrutiny Americans don't really know that much 120 00:06:57,960 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 1: about her, Is that a factor? 121 00:07:00,360 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, this could cut either way for her because she 122 00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:08,279 Speaker 2: has been trying to run as a generic Democrat, as 123 00:07:08,320 --> 00:07:12,560 Speaker 2: someone that any Democrat can project whatever they want onto her. 124 00:07:12,720 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 2: So progressive, progressive Democrat, moderate, the a moderate Democrat, African 125 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:23,240 Speaker 2: American voters see this great African American candidate. Other voters 126 00:07:23,280 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 2: see someone with this post racial identity. She's really trying 127 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:31,240 Speaker 2: to be everything to everyone, including, as I said, to 128 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:35,640 Speaker 2: moderate Republican voters, which means she can't get too specific 129 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 2: about what she actually is. But there have been polls 130 00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 2: suggesting that some voters are on the fence about her 131 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 2: because they feel they don't really know what she represents 132 00:07:45,640 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 2: or what she's got planned. So it's look, it's a 133 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 2: gamble that she has taken. Who knows whether it's going 134 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 2: to pay off or not. 135 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:55,600 Speaker 1: We'll have the popcorn out next Wednesday afternoon. Outtime watching 136 00:07:55,640 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 1: this roll in once you got to feel at the moment, David. 137 00:07:58,920 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 2: Look, it is honestly too close for me. I had 138 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 2: had gut feels for you know, the last six or 139 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 2: seven elections that I've seen. Sometimes they're right, sometimes they're wrong. 140 00:08:09,760 --> 00:08:13,360 Speaker 2: This time, my gut is silent because there is just 141 00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:18,200 Speaker 2: so much conflicting information coming in about what's going on. 142 00:08:18,360 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 2: I think every new poll makes me more rather than 143 00:08:21,480 --> 00:08:25,560 Speaker 2: less confused about what's about what's going on. So I 144 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:27,800 Speaker 2: honestly think we should see this one of the conflicts. 145 00:08:27,920 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 1: Okay, interesting Pennsylvania, the biggest of the swing states. Looking 146 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:34,040 Speaker 1: at the five, three, eight poles, which is an average 147 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 1: of all poles. Yesterday Trump was ahead by point two. 148 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:43,559 Speaker 1: I think today Kamala's ahead point three, so they both Yeah. 149 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:46,200 Speaker 2: Look, that's exactly the sort of thing that we're that 150 00:08:46,200 --> 00:08:48,319 Speaker 2: we're looking at. You'll see one pole with Trump ahead 151 00:08:48,320 --> 00:08:51,120 Speaker 2: by one. The next pole, Harri, it's ahead by one. 152 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,480 Speaker 2: Poles are only surveying about one thousand people at the time, 153 00:08:54,559 --> 00:08:57,600 Speaker 2: and they're very useful instruments, but when it's when it's 154 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 2: this close, there's not very much I can tell us 155 00:09:00,520 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 2: about who's in front. 156 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:05,120 Speaker 1: Appreciate your time as always, Thank you my pleasure. This 157 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:08,440 Speaker 1: is a professor Associate Professor David Smith from the University 158 00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:11,719 Speaker 1: of Sydney US Study Center on the US election. One 159 00:09:11,760 --> 00:09:12,240 Speaker 1: week to go.