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Speaker 1: Welcome to Fear and greed business news you can use. Today,

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Speaker 1: investors ramp up their selling of text doocs as the

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Speaker 1: implications of AI filter through the market. Federal Treasury says

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Speaker 1: scaling back the capital gains tax concession for property investors

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Speaker 1: will help first home buyers, and the federal government releases

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Speaker 1: the business case for a ninety two billion dollar high

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Speaker 1: speed rail link between Sydney and Newcastle. Plus, the owner

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Speaker 1: of Westfield Shopping Centres wants to build sixteen thousand apartments

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Speaker 1: at six of its malls. And Donald Trump's tariff's kick

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Speaker 1: in at ten percent, not fifteen percent. It's Wednesday, the

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Speaker 1: twenty fifth of February twenty twenty six. I'm Michael Thompson

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Speaker 1: and good morning, Sean.

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Speaker 2: Aylma, what a mouthful, Michael, Good morning.

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Speaker 1: We have a lot to get through today, Sean. The

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Speaker 1: main story this morning investors are selling text docs as

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Speaker 1: they reassess the costs and benefit I suppose of AI,

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Speaker 1: both of the companies facilitating the large language models and

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Speaker 1: for those whose business models are threatened by the very

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Speaker 1: existence now of AI. It seems to be most prevalent

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Speaker 1: on Wall Street, but it's also flowing through here to Australia.

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Speaker 1: We'll start with Wall Street. The sheer size of capital

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Speaker 1: spending this year on AI by big tech companies is

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Speaker 1: in excess of one trillion dollars, and that has triggered

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Speaker 1: concerns about when those companies will actually kind of get

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Speaker 1: the payback out of this.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. The share price of market leader chip maker

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Speaker 2: n Video is up slightly this year. Now it's outlined

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Speaker 2: huge kapex plans, but it also sells chips, so it

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Speaker 2: actually makes real money from this AI revolution. Microsoft by

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Speaker 2: contract spending huge amounts of money promising to make it back.

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Speaker 2: Its share prices off nineteen percent this year. Amazon same deal,

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Speaker 2: its share prices off nine percent this year. Meta with

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Speaker 2: its Gemini large language models down slightly this year, as

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Speaker 2: is Meta platforms.

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Speaker 1: So they're the providers of AI, from the large language

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Speaker 1: models through to infrastructure and data centers. What about the

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Speaker 1: companies though, whose business models are being threatened by AI?

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Speaker 1: One good example, I suppose we'd be local software provider

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Speaker 1: at Lassian. It's listed on the NASDAK. Its share prices

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Speaker 1: off was a fifty six percent this year and close

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Speaker 1: to eighty percent over the last twelve months.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been hammered. The concern there is that AI

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Speaker 2: will replace its business model now at Lassian. At Lassian

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Speaker 2: software helps teams within companies plan, track and collaborate on projects.

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Speaker 2: Maybe AI can do that better, maybe it can do

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Speaker 2: it cheaper. That's the problem for it Lassian. Lassian disagrees,

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Speaker 2: But investors aren't say sure. Local tech stocks feel the

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Speaker 2: shadow of that AI revolution place like zero wise Tech,

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Speaker 2: Global Technology one. They've will been sold off big time.

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Speaker 1: And it's not just tech stocks. Is that the insurers

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Speaker 1: We're seeing it hit them too.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been amazing to see some sectors get done

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Speaker 2: by investors as the potential of AI dawns on them.

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Speaker 2: So insurance is a case in point in the US

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Speaker 2: insurer five It's company called insure if I was launched

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Speaker 2: was it is a company, but it's a platform. It's

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Speaker 2: a digital licensed insurance agent and comparison platform that allows

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Speaker 2: users to compare and purchase auto, home, renters, pet and

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Speaker 2: life insurance policy from over one hundred and twenty carriers

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Speaker 2: in real time.

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Speaker 1: And anyone, anyone who has shopped around for insurance.

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Speaker 2: Knows how hard it is right that potentially undermines insurance

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Speaker 2: companies profit and yesterday the local market for example, I AAGQB,

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Speaker 2: Steadfast we're all sold off, but they have been underpressure

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Speaker 2: out for quite a few weeks ever since his ensure

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Speaker 2: if I was launched.

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Speaker 1: Wow, this is is this just going to keep going?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean this. It is not a linear line.

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Speaker 2: What happens to a lot of these companies and some

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Speaker 2: of them will do well, but some of them won't

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Speaker 2: do well. Now you know, Kevin Heabner's discussion yesterday we

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Speaker 2: had in the show was talking about this. It's really

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Speaker 2: hard to know who do well and who won't. And

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Speaker 2: there were some business models like potentially insurance, potentially I

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Speaker 2: legal firms, potentially accounting firms where things will be totally different.

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Speaker 1: It's a fascinating time. The local market yesterday, Sean finished

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Speaker 1: down just a touch. It feels like we need a

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Speaker 1: technical term for it, just a breath a brown now

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Speaker 1: down to nine twenty two points. The highlight though was BHP.

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Speaker 1: It pushed through fifty five dollars a share for the

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Speaker 1: first time, helped by a jump in the price of

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Speaker 1: precious metals. The Big Australian is up twenty percent this year.

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Speaker 2: Go you good things, amazing. It has been a great

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Speaker 2: year for BHP. Tech stocks yesterday did worst as we

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Speaker 2: were talking about energy stocks did best among large caps

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Speaker 2: that were selling of Macquiry Good grow Mcquarie Good. That's

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Speaker 2: not it's cool, it's called Macquarie Group, Goodman Group. That

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Speaker 2: I was getting my self confierced. Where's farmers see us?

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Speaker 1: Hell moving away from markets just for a moment, Sean.

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Speaker 1: Scaling back the capital gains tax concession for property investors

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Speaker 1: would do little to help supply, but it would help

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Speaker 1: more first home buyers into the market, according to the

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Speaker 1: Federal Department of Treasury. Appearing before the Senate inquiry into

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Speaker 1: the fifty percent capital gains tax deduction for investors, the

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Speaker 1: Treasury Assistant Secretary Shane Johnson said that modeling shows the

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Speaker 1: main impact from around any from any change would be

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Speaker 1: around the ownership mix, and in that is an opportunity

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Speaker 1: for first home buyers.

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Speaker 2: Right. Of course, the federal government's considering pairing back capital

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Speaker 2: gains tax concessions for investors in property. That's what that

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Speaker 2: hearing is all about yesterday, and the fact that they've

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Speaker 2: come out and said, look, it's not where it's not

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Speaker 2: so much a demand it's not going to be trees

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Speaker 2: or decrease demand. It's actually who's demanding the product, i e.

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Speaker 2: The houses that'll change. And I mean, I think it's

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Speaker 2: good news if it's actually making it easier for first

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Speaker 2: home buyers. I would think. The hearing also heard from

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Speaker 2: former Reserve Bank boss Bernie Fraser, who said it should

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Speaker 2: be abolished to make housing more affordable. Bernie Fraser never

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Speaker 2: mixed his work, I certainly not. The opposite argument was

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Speaker 2: supplied by the Master Billers Association, who said removing the

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Speaker 2: deduction would result in fewer new homes being built and

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Speaker 2: trigger higher prices, hurting Australia's economic performance.

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Speaker 1: It kind of feels more and more likely that something

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Speaker 1: is going to happen on this front.

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Speaker 2: It sure does. They might abolish well, I'd be very

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Speaker 2: surprised if they abolished it, but scale back, scale back definitely,

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Speaker 2: and I don't think they'll make it retrospective. So you've

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Speaker 2: got it now, you're fine. But yeah, it sounds like

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Speaker 2: it doesn't.

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Speaker 1: Know is this an example of what we're talking about

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Speaker 1: of the government you actually using its mandate for some

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Speaker 1: change or is this not as big a change as

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Speaker 1: you would like to.

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Speaker 2: See it's a sensible change if he hasn't done it yet.

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Speaker 2: So when you say using its mandate once it does it, okay,

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Speaker 2: you can say that.

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Speaker 1: Giving too much credit before it's actually due. Okay, all right,

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Speaker 1: quick break back in a moment with the rest of

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Speaker 1: the day's business news, Shawn. The federal government has released

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Speaker 1: a three hundred page business case for a one hundred

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Speaker 1: and ninety four kilometer fast rail link between Sydney and Newcastle,

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Speaker 1: which could carry trains two hundred meters long and travel

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Speaker 1: up to three hundred and twenty kilometers an hour. And

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Speaker 1: it'll take about an hour to travel between the two cities.

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Speaker 2: So that's about you know, anyone that drives Sydney Newcastle

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Speaker 2: probably two hours, let's say, unless you come from where

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Speaker 2: you come from, it's about two and.

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Speaker 1: A half hours or more yep, or more.

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Speaker 2: So it's about halving the time. All the cost is

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Speaker 2: put at ninety two point six billion. The business case

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Speaker 2: warns of inherent lost overrun risks. You don't think you yeah,

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Speaker 2: technical risks, project delays, station construction risks. A lot of

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Speaker 2: this actually was redacted, but the AFI is reporting it

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Speaker 2: so the publicly available version doesn't have a lot of

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Speaker 2: that stuff in it. The proposed high Speed rail Link

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Speaker 2: is far more complex than the Inland rail Road Link

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Speaker 2: because it will require one hundred and fifteen kilometers of

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Speaker 2: twin tunnels, with passengers forecast to spend about thirty minutes

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Speaker 2: in tunnels between Sydney and Gosford. That's given that it's

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Speaker 2: only an hour from city to Newcastle. Thirty minutes in

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Speaker 2: tunnels between city and Gosford means it's mostly tunnels. Prome

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Speaker 2: Minister to Anthony Albanezi said the high Speed rail Link

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Speaker 2: would need significant private sector funding to get off the ground.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's ever going to happen. H No,

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Speaker 1: It's one of those things. And especially considering it took

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Speaker 1: what sixty years to get the second airport in Sydney

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Speaker 1: up and running, even when the land had been set

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Speaker 1: aside that entire time, fewer kind of geotechnical and all

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Speaker 1: of these other risks and things, I think we can

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Speaker 1: probably say unlikely. No, but it's a nice report.

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Speaker 2: It is a nice report.

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Speaker 1: Okay. At Center Group, owner of Westfield shopping centers in Australia,

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Speaker 1: is pushing hard into residential housing. It's lodged proposals to

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Speaker 1: develop more than sixteen thousand apartments at six of its malls.

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Speaker 1: It already has approval for forty one hundred dwellings at

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Speaker 1: Westfield Hornsby and Sydney and Westfield bel Connon in Canberra.

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Speaker 1: The group now wants approval to build residential at or

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Speaker 1: probably in most cases above locations in Brisbane, in Caarendale

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Speaker 1: and Mount Gravat. We'reinga mall in Sydney, Woden in Canberra

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Speaker 1: and at Knox and Southland in Melbourne.

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Speaker 2: So you said above, not always. So Center's portfolio includes

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Speaker 2: the malls themselves, got a lot of acant land too,

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Speaker 2: but the car parks that surround the shopping centers. Car

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Speaker 2: parks provide particular scope for redevelopment, so you can put

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Speaker 2: the car park underground and build a building where the

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Speaker 2: car park is. The ultimate plan is more than residential.

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Speaker 2: So Westfield or Sorry, Center group want to get into

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Speaker 2: student accommodation. They want to get in a health ascilities,

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Speaker 2: education facilities. This according to Boss Elliott Russ and now

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Speaker 2: he was talking after the group booked a sixty nine

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Speaker 2: percent increase in net profit thanks to revaluations. Share price

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Speaker 2: did close down slightly but it's just interesting to see

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Speaker 2: the big retail or the owner of Maul's really pushing

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Speaker 2: beyond that.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Indeed, now, Australia's largest oil and gas company, Woodside,

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Speaker 1: has delivered a twenty four percent drop in full year

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Speaker 1: profit on softer commodity prices as it continues at search

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Speaker 1: for a new CEO. The company was at pains yesterday

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Speaker 1: to reassure investors that major projects are still on track.

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Speaker 2: So the Scarborough Grass project in Wa still expected to

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Speaker 2: ship its first LNG this year. To try on oil

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Speaker 2: and gas project in Mexico should come online in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty eight. Net profit for the year came into two

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Speaker 2: point seven billion dollars above market consensus, declared a higher

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Speaker 2: than expected dividend. Former ce Meg O'Neil left abruptly in

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Speaker 2: in December to take the top job at Global giant BP.

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Speaker 2: Woodside's heer price closed up about two and a half

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Speaker 2: per cent yesterday.

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Speaker 1: Earning season just hasn't been the same without Meg O'Neil. No,

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Speaker 1: I agree, just one of those really, just Frank, tell

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Speaker 1: it like it is, leaders who make kind of business

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Speaker 1: news really really interesting and exciting. Australia's media companies still

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Speaker 1: are having a little bit of a tough time, it seems.

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Speaker 1: Southern Cross Media outlining a drop in profit over the

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Speaker 1: past six months. It's flagged cost cuts over the next year. Now.

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Speaker 1: Southern Cross merged with seven West Media in January, and

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Speaker 1: that brought together the seven network and the West Australian newspaper,

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Speaker 1: alongside the Triple M and Hit radio brand, the Listener

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Speaker 1: audio app and a bunch of regional radio stations. There's

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Speaker 1: a lot of bits and pieces.

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Speaker 2: To this company. Yeah. In the CGF Howard abruptly left

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Speaker 2: the business on Monday, the day before the results were released.

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Speaker 2: No reason given for his departure, so you know, I'm

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Speaker 2: not sure what's going on there. Revenue across Southern Cross

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Speaker 2: was lower late last year, while profits fell eighty percent.

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Speaker 2: New executive chair Heath mackay Cruz said the company expects

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Speaker 2: thirty million dollars in cost syentergies, cost synergies.

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Speaker 1: Did you just shudder just then when you you heard that, yep?

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Speaker 2: Cost cuts. Its share price finished at one point four percent.

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Speaker 1: Meanwhile, Nine Entertainment, which includes obviously the free to air channel,

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Speaker 1: also the stand streaming service, a publishing business and for

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Speaker 1: most of the last half year of radio business as well,

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Speaker 1: delivered a forty two percent rise in earnings.

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Speaker 2: Very busy six months for nine and note only sold

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Speaker 2: US radio stations. Also at sixty percent stake in the

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Speaker 2: domain real estate business, the US group co Star brought

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Speaker 2: an outdoor advertising business QMS. While revenue was lower, it

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Speaker 2: was coming off the twenty twenty four paras Olympics, so

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Speaker 2: we expected revenue to be lower than twelve month previous

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Speaker 2: profit was above expectations and its share price was up

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Speaker 2: a bit.

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Speaker 1: It just really quickly shown four wheel drive. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what I say, really quickly, and then I slow

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Speaker 1: right down for some reason, but four wheel drive parts

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Speaker 1: maker ARB Corps ration. It tumbled thirteen percent after its

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Speaker 1: first half profit fell by seventeen percent, and so there

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Speaker 1: was ongoing weakness in its core division. So we're still

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Speaker 1: seeing these kind of big swings. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: So viv Enerji jumped thirteen percent after it reported a

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Speaker 2: jump and profit supported by a strong commercial industrial sales

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Speaker 2: or door Beauty was another one interesting one. Yesterday it

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Speaker 2: was down twenty eight percent. Basically profit was down two thirds.

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Speaker 2: It had to deeply discount Black Friday sales that hit

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Speaker 2: its profit margins ouch.

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Speaker 1: Okay. Turning to international news now, and Donald Trump is

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Speaker 1: implementing a new global tariff at ten percent rather than

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Speaker 1: the fifteen percent that he announced at the weekend after

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Speaker 1: his defeat at the Supreme Court. This is according to

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Speaker 1: a notice from the US Customs Agency. The move to

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Speaker 1: apply this ten percent global levy delaying the enactment of

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Speaker 1: the fifteen percent tariff, follows a backlash to the higher

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Speaker 1: rate from several US trading partners, including significantly the EU

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Speaker 1: and the UK.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean some of those. The UK had a

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Speaker 2: ten percent rate. It was going to be pushed up,

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Speaker 2: just like a study was to be pushed up. The

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Speaker 2: White House signal that Trump was still committed to setting

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Speaker 2: a global tariff at fifteen percent, according to the FT,

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Speaker 2: After the Supreme Court on Friday rule that the sweeping

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Speaker 2: levees Trump imposed on US training partners based on emergency

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Speaker 2: powers were illegal, the President quickly moved to replace them

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Speaker 2: under a different statute ten percent for one hundred and

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Speaker 2: fifty days. That's where or at the moment over the weekend,

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Speaker 2: he actually pushed that to fifteen percent. It is now

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Speaker 2: back down to ten percent.

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Speaker 1: Confusing right uncertainty how on earth do you operate in

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Speaker 1: that environment? Parts of northeastern USA Sean have come to

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Speaker 1: a standstill as a blizzard passes through the region. Six states,

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Speaker 1: including New York, have now declared a state of emergency.

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Speaker 2: The first time since twenty nineteen. New York declared an

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Speaker 2: old snow school day, basically kids don't go to school.

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Speaker 2: Road travel was banned for fifteen hour period.

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Speaker 1: Road travel banned.

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Speaker 2: Yes, he went allowed out from I think it was

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Speaker 2: from I'm going to get the Times run. But it

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Speaker 2: was nine pm through to like noon the next day.

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Speaker 1: Oh wow.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Technically, a blizzard in the US is when a

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Speaker 2: snowstorm reduces visibility to less than four hundred meters for

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Speaker 2: three hours or more. That's what a blizzard is.

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Speaker 1: There we go. It came late in the show, but

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Speaker 1: I learned my fact of the day.

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Speaker 2: If we're closed up to twenty inches, it's about fifty

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Speaker 2: centimeters the snow was expected.

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Speaker 1: Wow, that's a lot of snow up. Next Sean is

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Speaker 1: Fear and Greed Q and A. Your guest today Frank

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Speaker 1: Filman from Salesforce.

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Speaker 2: Yes, we have a great chat about how AI can

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Speaker 2: help with Australia's productivity. Dilemma, why local businesses are struggling

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Speaker 2: with the last mile, that type of thing.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's one of the topics that's been explored, delved

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Speaker 1: into dug into at today's Agent Force World Tour in

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Speaker 1: Sydney and Fear and Greed of partners with Salesforce for

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Speaker 1: the event. We're getting out on the road, Sean.

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Speaker 2: We are going to be I'm looking forward to it.

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Speaker 1: Good fun. That's coming up next to that chat with

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Speaker 1: Franko to go one. It's coming up in the Fear

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Speaker 1: and grad playlist on your podcast platform or at Fearangreed

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Speaker 1: dot com dot au. Thank you, Sean, Thank you, Michael. Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: the twenty fifth of FED. You're twenty twenty six. Make

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Speaker 1: sure you're following the podcast and join us online on

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Speaker 1: LinkedIn and Instagram. Oh, Michael Thompson. That was Fear and Greed.

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Speaker 1: Have a great day, y