Speaker 1: From Schwarz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven Am.
Speaker 1: It was the biggest escalation between Hezbola and Israel since
Speaker 1: October seven. On Sunday, Hesbola launched hundreds of rockets and
Speaker 1: drones at Israel, and Israel said it hit more than
Speaker 1: forty targets in Lebanon and isn't done yet. The attacks
Speaker 1: come as talks of a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel
Speaker 1: continue with no sign of an outcome. Today World Editor
Speaker 1: of the Saturday paper, Jonathan Perlman on whether the Middle
Speaker 1: East is headed for all out war. It's Tuesday, August
Speaker 1: twenty seven, Jonathan. Since the outbreak of war in October
Speaker 1: last year, we've seen the Israeli army and hez boler
Speaker 1: in on attacking each other. There is this pattern of attack,
Speaker 1: stand down, stand off, repeat. But the last few days
Speaker 1: seem to have been different. We've seen the biggest escalation
Speaker 1: in this dispute so far. Tell me what happened.
Speaker 2: Yes, that's right, Ruby, We've just seen really the biggest
Speaker 2: exchange in what has been a year of sort of
Speaker 2: an almost war between Israel and Hezbollah. That's on Israel's
Speaker 2: northern border and the south of Lebanon, and bearing in
Speaker 2: mind that the accounts on both sides differ, but what
Speaker 2: we understand to have happened is that Israel launched a
Speaker 2: preemptive strike against an attack from his Bolah, and the
Speaker 2: preemptive strike was massive. It involved one hundred Israeli Air
Speaker 2: Force jets hitting targets across southern Lebanon about forty targets. Meanwhile,
Speaker 2: Heasbolla launched some three hundred or a little bit more
Speaker 2: than three hundred rockets and drones. It looks like many
Speaker 2: of them were intercepted, but it's not clear exactly what
Speaker 2: managed to get through, but Hisbolla claimed some success. Hans
Speaker 2: and Lamalia its leader Hassan Israela, gave a speech refusing
Speaker 2: Israel's claims to have thwarted this attack. What they were
Speaker 2: aiming at was a compound outside Tel Aviv, which is
Speaker 2: the headquarters of Mossad and Israeli intelligence. So his Balla
Speaker 2: said that its attack was a retaliation against an assassination
Speaker 2: in Beirut several weeks ago by Israel against a s
Speaker 2: Hesbola commander. But even despite the massive scale of this,
Speaker 2: it still seems to have been a contained escalation so
Speaker 2: you know, once again seeing the biggest escalation in this
Speaker 2: almost year long war, but it still looks like neither
Speaker 2: side once in all out war.
Speaker 1: Can you just unpick that tension for me, this idea
Speaker 1: that neither Hesbala or the Israeli military want to go
Speaker 1: to war, yet they continue to attack each other, which
Speaker 1: puts them on a potential path to that very outcome.
Speaker 1: So if they don't want what why are they doing
Speaker 1: what they're doing.
Speaker 3: For Israel, its strategic doctrine in the Middle East is
Speaker 3: all about deterrence. It believes it's surrounded by enemies and threats,
Speaker 3: and that.
Speaker 2: Its greatest form of defense effectively is to deter those
Speaker 2: threats and to make anyone that attacks it think that
Speaker 2: they'll either be destroyed or face much stronger response and
Speaker 2: more damage than anything they can infl And really that
Speaker 2: deterrence effect collapsed on October seven when Hamas, which was
Speaker 2: considered sort of the weakest in some ways of those threats,
Speaker 2: was able to launch this surprise attack.
Speaker 3: It took Israel by complete surprise.
Speaker 2: And Hamas effectively occupied parts of southern Israel for several days.
Speaker 2: I mean, this is something unprecedented in Israeli history and
Speaker 2: was really devastating to Israel's sense of its own security
Speaker 2: and to its own basic strategic approach to the region,
Speaker 2: which is this deterrence effect. And so Israel is now
Speaker 2: trying to rebuild that, and particularly against Hezbollah, it's trying
Speaker 2: to show that it can preemptively strike against his Bolla,
Speaker 2: that it can attack and assassinate senior commanders, as we
Speaker 2: saw it do recently in Beirut. Now, if we look
Speaker 2: at Hesbolla, what it wants to do is show that
Speaker 2: it can strike Israel, hurt Israel. Hesbola also says that
Speaker 2: it is acting in solidarity with Hamas and with the
Speaker 2: Palestinians in Gaza, and that's why it started to launch
Speaker 2: attacks after October seven.
Speaker 1: And as these attacks happen, life becomes more and more
Speaker 1: dangerous for those people who live in Lebanon and those
Speaker 1: who are near the border in northern Israel. These are
Speaker 1: the people who stand to lose their homes and their
Speaker 1: lives if things escalate. So how are they responding to
Speaker 1: this and what are their lives like at the moment.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right.
Speaker 2: And this war has been going on for almost a
Speaker 2: year and it's taken a huge coal. So about one
Speaker 2: hundred and twenty thousand Elevenese people have been evacuated from
Speaker 2: southern Lebanon since October seven, and about sixty thousand people
Speaker 2: have been evacuated from northern Israel. There's been huge damage
Speaker 2: on both sides, just basic damage from all the bonding,
Speaker 2: and then there's been a huge death toll on the
Speaker 2: Lebanese side, about four hundreds BOLLA fighters and one hundred
Speaker 2: and twenty six civilians are believe to have been killed.
Speaker 2: On the Israeli side, about twenty four civilians and nineteen soldiers.
Speaker 2: And there is growing frustration in Israel's north with the
Speaker 2: response of the government, and so you have people they're
Speaker 2: you know, some council heads recently announced that they're cutting
Speaker 2: ties with the government.
Speaker 3: Some of them want Israel to take on Hezbollah the
Speaker 3: way that.
Speaker 2: It has against Hamas in the south, and they feel
Speaker 2: neglected by the government. You know, for people inside Lebanon,
Speaker 2: they've either had to evacuate or face huge risks. Lebanon
Speaker 2: doesn't have the same sort of infrastructure that Israel has,
Speaker 2: bomb shelters and iron dime and missile shields, So you
Speaker 2: have tens of thousands of people living this precarious existence
Speaker 2: in southern Lebanon. Now they're facing this situation where their
Speaker 2: fate now is in the hands of Hezbola and what
Speaker 2: moves Hesbola decides to.
Speaker 3: Take next.
Speaker 1: Coming up after the break, just how powerful is Hesbola, So, Jonathan,
Speaker 1: let's talk about Hezbola a bit more. It's been described
Speaker 1: as a state within a state. It's Lebanon's strongest military
Speaker 1: and political force, even if it's not the official force
Speaker 1: of Lebanon at this moment in time. How powerful is
Speaker 1: the group?
Speaker 3: So militarily, Hezbola is very powerful.
Speaker 2: It's the most powerful non state actor in Lebanon and
Speaker 2: probably the most powerful non state military in the world.
Speaker 2: It claims to have one hundred thousand fighters, but analysts
Speaker 2: seem to think it has closer to around forty to
Speaker 2: fifty thousand fighters. But it's believed I have about one
Speaker 2: hundred and fifty to two hundred thousand missiles, some of
Speaker 2: these high precision missiles that could strike targets, you know,
Speaker 2: specific targets in Tel.
Speaker 3: Aviv and across Israel.
Speaker 2: Capacity much much greater than Hannas has in Gaza. And
Speaker 2: then it's also a political movement. It's a Shia movement.
Speaker 2: It's strongly backed by Iran and has had strong backing
Speaker 2: from the Assad regiam in Syria.
Speaker 3: It also sent.
Speaker 2: About seven thousand and five is over to support Assad
Speaker 2: during the civil war, which meant that it's got battle
Speaker 2: hardened soldiers.
Speaker 4: Lebanese Shia group Hasbula is dedicated to support the Acid
Speaker 4: regime and its violence against the Syrians. A top us
Speaker 4: of the United States on Thursday imposed new sanctions on
Speaker 4: hesbila's leader, Hassanzrala and two other figures in the armed
Speaker 4: group over their support for Syrian President Bashal Ascaid's regime.
Speaker 5: What began as an uprising against the regime of Basha
Speaker 5: our side has become a regional proxy war and one
Speaker 5: of the main combatants supporting our side is has Bolah,
Speaker 5: the Lebanese Schiete militant group.
Speaker 2: It's also you know, it's labeled as a terrorist organization
Speaker 2: by many countries around the world because it's been involved
Speaker 2: in suicide bombings both in Lebanon and outside Lebanon, and
Speaker 2: it has a history of.
Speaker 3: That going back to the civil war inside Lebanon.
Speaker 2: So Hisbola is a strong force that if and all
Speaker 2: that war were to develop could really bring Israel to
Speaker 2: a standstill and would also have devastating consequences across Lebanon.
Speaker 1: And you said earlier, Jonathan, that Hezbollah is acting in
Speaker 1: solidarity with Hamas. So to what extent should we view
Speaker 1: the two groups as an allied force in the conflict
Speaker 1: in the Middle East? Right now? How close are they?
Speaker 3: Both?
Speaker 2: Hebola and Hama are backed by Iran and are members
Speaker 2: of what Iran calls its axis of resistance, and that
Speaker 2: includes the Hutis in Yemen.
Speaker 3: Groups in Iraq.
Speaker 2: And these are sort of proxy militant groups across the
Speaker 2: region that Iran backs and that Iran hopes will act
Speaker 2: in its own interests. But they also have varying levels
Speaker 2: of independence from Iran. So, for instance, his Bolla is
Speaker 2: closer to Iran than Hamas, is coordinates more closely with Iran,
Speaker 2: particularly its military wing. His Bolla has backed Hamas in
Speaker 2: Gaza and responded after October seven in solidarity with Gaza.
Speaker 2: And there have been meetings between the leadership of his Bollah,
Speaker 2: Hamas and Iran in Beirut and also in Tehran, so
Speaker 2: they meet and coordinate on Israel, but then they also
Speaker 2: have differences. So for instance, his Bollah backed Pasad in Syria,
Speaker 2: whereas Hamas was opposed to a Satin Syria where Sunni
Speaker 2: rebels were fighting against Assad.
Speaker 3: So the relationship is complicated, Okay.
Speaker 1: So understanding that, what we do know is that Israel
Speaker 1: and Hezbola want to avoid war. So if that is
Speaker 1: the case, what would allow each side to claim a
Speaker 1: kind of victory, what would end this escalation before it
Speaker 1: became a war?
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I think for Hisbola, it can walk away
Speaker 2: from this contained escalation and claim victory because Hisbola can
Speaker 2: present itself as a force that stood up to Israel,
Speaker 2: stood in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza, and attacked.
Speaker 3: Israel during the war in Gaza, and it.
Speaker 2: Can claim that it is acting in Lebanon's interests, and
Speaker 2: you know, it calls itself the party of Resistance, that
Speaker 2: it's resisting Israel on Lebanon's behalf. For Israel, it's much
Speaker 2: harder really to claim any victory against his Bolla, because
Speaker 2: you know, Israel relies on this deterrence against threats such
Speaker 2: as his Bolla. And you know, in the last year,
Speaker 2: really the North of Israel is no longer a functioning
Speaker 2: part of the country, so it's going to be harder
Speaker 2: for Israel to send a message of victory. On the
Speaker 2: other hand, it's actually been more successful against his Bolla
Speaker 2: than it has against Hamas in some ways. You know,
Speaker 2: it's shown that its intelligence has been highly effective, that
Speaker 2: it's been able to do these pinpoint assassinations of his
Speaker 2: Bola leaders in a way that.
Speaker 3: It hasn't been able to do against Hamas.
Speaker 2: And also, you know, it's launched this attack on Gaza
Speaker 2: that's devastated much of Gaza, and that also becomes part
Speaker 2: of it deterrence and a message to his Bola about
Speaker 2: what we might see if there's a complete war against
Speaker 2: fIF Bolla. But there's also the question then about what
Speaker 2: is a victory against Hamas look like, because the war
Speaker 2: is still going on there with an enormous death toll
Speaker 2: in Gaza. Benjamin Antennahu has claimed that he wants a
Speaker 2: total victory in Gaza. It's still not clear exactly what
Speaker 2: that would look like. Ultimately, you know, Israel would need
Speaker 2: the hostages to come back, and it would probably need
Speaker 2: to kill the leader of Hamas, Sinoir. He has proven
Speaker 2: very elusive without being able to capture him or kill
Speaker 2: him or end his leadership of Hamas. It's hard to
Speaker 2: see how Israel can claim a total victory, but it
Speaker 2: may have to set off something short of that, and
Speaker 2: certainly there are a strong care within Israel for.
Speaker 3: It to do that.
Speaker 1: Jonathan, thank you for your time.
Speaker 3: Thanks Ruby.
Speaker 1: Also in the news today, thousands of CFMU members are
Speaker 1: expected to attend rallies across the country today. The protests
Speaker 1: come after the government announced will be placing all branches
Speaker 1: of the Union under administration for a minimum of three years.
Speaker 1: Attorney General Mark Dreyfus made the announcement on Friday morning,
Speaker 1: declaring it was in the public interest after revelations by
Speaker 1: the Nine newspapers of corruption and links to criminal games
Speaker 1: and Musician and former Federal Arts Minister Peter go Barrett
Speaker 1: will lead an independent review into the Melbourne Symphony Orchestra.
Speaker 1: The organization has recently come under scrutiny after it canceled
Speaker 1: the upcoming performance of an acclaimed pianist who dedicated a
Speaker 1: song to journalists who have died while covering the war
Speaker 1: in Gaza. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am. Thanks
Speaker 1: for listening.