WEBVTT - Are Hezbollah and Israel gearing up for all out war?

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<v Speaker 1>From Schwarz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven Am.

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<v Speaker 1>It was the biggest escalation between Hezbola and Israel since

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<v Speaker 1>October seven. On Sunday, Hesbola launched hundreds of rockets and

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<v Speaker 1>drones at Israel, and Israel said it hit more than

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<v Speaker 1>forty targets in Lebanon and isn't done yet. The attacks

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<v Speaker 1>come as talks of a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel

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<v Speaker 1>continue with no sign of an outcome. Today World Editor

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<v Speaker 1>of the Saturday paper, Jonathan Perlman on whether the Middle

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<v Speaker 1>East is headed for all out war. It's Tuesday, August

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<v Speaker 1>twenty seven, Jonathan. Since the outbreak of war in October

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<v Speaker 1>last year, we've seen the Israeli army and hez boler

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<v Speaker 1>in on attacking each other. There is this pattern of attack,

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<v Speaker 1>stand down, stand off, repeat. But the last few days

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<v Speaker 1>seem to have been different. We've seen the biggest escalation

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<v Speaker 1>in this dispute so far. Tell me what happened.

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<v Speaker 2>Yes, that's right, Ruby, We've just seen really the biggest

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<v Speaker 2>exchange in what has been a year of sort of

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<v Speaker 2>an almost war between Israel and Hezbollah. That's on Israel's

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<v Speaker 2>northern border and the south of Lebanon, and bearing in

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<v Speaker 2>mind that the accounts on both sides differ, but what

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<v Speaker 2>we understand to have happened is that Israel launched a

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<v Speaker 2>preemptive strike against an attack from his Bolah, and the

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<v Speaker 2>preemptive strike was massive. It involved one hundred Israeli Air

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<v Speaker 2>Force jets hitting targets across southern Lebanon about forty targets. Meanwhile,

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<v Speaker 2>Heasbolla launched some three hundred or a little bit more

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<v Speaker 2>than three hundred rockets and drones. It looks like many

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<v Speaker 2>of them were intercepted, but it's not clear exactly what

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<v Speaker 2>managed to get through, but Hisbolla claimed some success. Hans

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<v Speaker 2>and Lamalia its leader Hassan Israela, gave a speech refusing

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<v Speaker 2>Israel's claims to have thwarted this attack. What they were

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<v Speaker 2>aiming at was a compound outside Tel Aviv, which is

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<v Speaker 2>the headquarters of Mossad and Israeli intelligence. So his Balla

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<v Speaker 2>said that its attack was a retaliation against an assassination

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<v Speaker 2>in Beirut several weeks ago by Israel against a s

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<v Speaker 2>Hesbola commander. But even despite the massive scale of this,

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<v Speaker 2>it still seems to have been a contained escalation so

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<v Speaker 2>you know, once again seeing the biggest escalation in this

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<v Speaker 2>almost year long war, but it still looks like neither

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<v Speaker 2>side once in all out war.

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<v Speaker 1>Can you just unpick that tension for me, this idea

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<v Speaker 1>that neither Hesbala or the Israeli military want to go

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<v Speaker 1>to war, yet they continue to attack each other, which

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<v Speaker 1>puts them on a potential path to that very outcome.

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<v Speaker 1>So if they don't want what why are they doing

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<v Speaker 1>what they're doing.

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<v Speaker 3>For Israel, its strategic doctrine in the Middle East is

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<v Speaker 3>all about deterrence. It believes it's surrounded by enemies and threats,

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<v Speaker 3>and that.

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<v Speaker 2>Its greatest form of defense effectively is to deter those

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<v Speaker 2>threats and to make anyone that attacks it think that

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<v Speaker 2>they'll either be destroyed or face much stronger response and

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<v Speaker 2>more damage than anything they can infl And really that

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<v Speaker 2>deterrence effect collapsed on October seven when Hamas, which was

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<v Speaker 2>considered sort of the weakest in some ways of those threats,

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<v Speaker 2>was able to launch this surprise attack.

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<v Speaker 3>It took Israel by complete surprise.

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<v Speaker 2>And Hamas effectively occupied parts of southern Israel for several days.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, this is something unprecedented in Israeli history and

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<v Speaker 2>was really devastating to Israel's sense of its own security

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<v Speaker 2>and to its own basic strategic approach to the region,

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<v Speaker 2>which is this deterrence effect. And so Israel is now

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<v Speaker 2>trying to rebuild that, and particularly against Hezbollah, it's trying

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<v Speaker 2>to show that it can preemptively strike against his Bolla,

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<v Speaker 2>that it can attack and assassinate senior commanders, as we

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<v Speaker 2>saw it do recently in Beirut. Now, if we look

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<v Speaker 2>at Hesbolla, what it wants to do is show that

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<v Speaker 2>it can strike Israel, hurt Israel. Hesbola also says that

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<v Speaker 2>it is acting in solidarity with Hamas and with the

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<v Speaker 2>Palestinians in Gaza, and that's why it started to launch

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<v Speaker 2>attacks after October seven.

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<v Speaker 1>And as these attacks happen, life becomes more and more

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<v Speaker 1>dangerous for those people who live in Lebanon and those

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<v Speaker 1>who are near the border in northern Israel. These are

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<v Speaker 1>the people who stand to lose their homes and their

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<v Speaker 1>lives if things escalate. So how are they responding to

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<v Speaker 1>this and what are their lives like at the moment.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that's right.

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<v Speaker 2>And this war has been going on for almost a

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<v Speaker 2>year and it's taken a huge coal. So about one

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<v Speaker 2>hundred and twenty thousand Elevenese people have been evacuated from

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<v Speaker 2>southern Lebanon since October seven, and about sixty thousand people

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<v Speaker 2>have been evacuated from northern Israel. There's been huge damage

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<v Speaker 2>on both sides, just basic damage from all the bonding,

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<v Speaker 2>and then there's been a huge death toll on the

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<v Speaker 2>Lebanese side, about four hundreds BOLLA fighters and one hundred

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<v Speaker 2>and twenty six civilians are believe to have been killed.

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<v Speaker 2>On the Israeli side, about twenty four civilians and nineteen soldiers.

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<v Speaker 2>And there is growing frustration in Israel's north with the

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<v Speaker 2>response of the government, and so you have people they're

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<v Speaker 2>you know, some council heads recently announced that they're cutting

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<v Speaker 2>ties with the government.

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<v Speaker 3>Some of them want Israel to take on Hezbollah the

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<v Speaker 3>way that.

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<v Speaker 2>It has against Hamas in the south, and they feel

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<v Speaker 2>neglected by the government. You know, for people inside Lebanon,

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<v Speaker 2>they've either had to evacuate or face huge risks. Lebanon

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<v Speaker 2>doesn't have the same sort of infrastructure that Israel has,

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<v Speaker 2>bomb shelters and iron dime and missile shields, So you

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<v Speaker 2>have tens of thousands of people living this precarious existence

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<v Speaker 2>in southern Lebanon. Now they're facing this situation where their

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<v Speaker 2>fate now is in the hands of Hezbola and what

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<v Speaker 2>moves Hesbola decides to.

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<v Speaker 3>Take next.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up after the break, just how powerful is Hesbola, So, Jonathan,

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<v Speaker 1>let's talk about Hezbola a bit more. It's been described

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<v Speaker 1>as a state within a state. It's Lebanon's strongest military

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<v Speaker 1>and political force, even if it's not the official force

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<v Speaker 1>of Lebanon at this moment in time. How powerful is

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<v Speaker 1>the group?

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<v Speaker 3>So militarily, Hezbola is very powerful.

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<v Speaker 2>It's the most powerful non state actor in Lebanon and

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<v Speaker 2>probably the most powerful non state military in the world.

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<v Speaker 2>It claims to have one hundred thousand fighters, but analysts

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<v Speaker 2>seem to think it has closer to around forty to

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<v Speaker 2>fifty thousand fighters. But it's believed I have about one

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<v Speaker 2>hundred and fifty to two hundred thousand missiles, some of

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<v Speaker 2>these high precision missiles that could strike targets, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>specific targets in Tel.

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<v Speaker 3>Aviv and across Israel.

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<v Speaker 2>Capacity much much greater than Hannas has in Gaza. And

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<v Speaker 2>then it's also a political movement. It's a Shia movement.

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<v Speaker 2>It's strongly backed by Iran and has had strong backing

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<v Speaker 2>from the Assad regiam in Syria.

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<v Speaker 3>It also sent.

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<v Speaker 2>About seven thousand and five is over to support Assad

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<v Speaker 2>during the civil war, which meant that it's got battle

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<v Speaker 2>hardened soldiers.

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<v Speaker 4>Lebanese Shia group Hasbula is dedicated to support the Acid

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<v Speaker 4>regime and its violence against the Syrians. A top us

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<v Speaker 4>of the United States on Thursday imposed new sanctions on

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<v Speaker 4>hesbila's leader, Hassanzrala and two other figures in the armed

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<v Speaker 4>group over their support for Syrian President Bashal Ascaid's regime.

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<v Speaker 5>What began as an uprising against the regime of Basha

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<v Speaker 5>our side has become a regional proxy war and one

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<v Speaker 5>of the main combatants supporting our side is has Bolah,

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<v Speaker 5>the Lebanese Schiete militant group.

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<v Speaker 2>It's also you know, it's labeled as a terrorist organization

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<v Speaker 2>by many countries around the world because it's been involved

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<v Speaker 2>in suicide bombings both in Lebanon and outside Lebanon, and

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<v Speaker 2>it has a history of.

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<v Speaker 3>That going back to the civil war inside Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 2>So Hisbola is a strong force that if and all

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<v Speaker 2>that war were to develop could really bring Israel to

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<v Speaker 2>a standstill and would also have devastating consequences across Lebanon.

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<v Speaker 1>And you said earlier, Jonathan, that Hezbollah is acting in

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<v Speaker 1>solidarity with Hamas. So to what extent should we view

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<v Speaker 1>the two groups as an allied force in the conflict

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<v Speaker 1>in the Middle East? Right now? How close are they?

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<v Speaker 3>Both?

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<v Speaker 2>Hebola and Hama are backed by Iran and are members

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<v Speaker 2>of what Iran calls its axis of resistance, and that

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<v Speaker 2>includes the Hutis in Yemen.

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<v Speaker 3>Groups in Iraq.

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<v Speaker 2>And these are sort of proxy militant groups across the

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<v Speaker 2>region that Iran backs and that Iran hopes will act

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<v Speaker 2>in its own interests. But they also have varying levels

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<v Speaker 2>of independence from Iran. So, for instance, his Bolla is

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<v Speaker 2>closer to Iran than Hamas, is coordinates more closely with Iran,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly its military wing. His Bolla has backed Hamas in

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<v Speaker 2>Gaza and responded after October seven in solidarity with Gaza.

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<v Speaker 2>And there have been meetings between the leadership of his Bollah,

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<v Speaker 2>Hamas and Iran in Beirut and also in Tehran, so

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<v Speaker 2>they meet and coordinate on Israel, but then they also

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<v Speaker 2>have differences. So for instance, his Bollah backed Pasad in Syria,

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<v Speaker 2>whereas Hamas was opposed to a Satin Syria where Sunni

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<v Speaker 2>rebels were fighting against Assad.

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<v Speaker 3>So the relationship is complicated, Okay.

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<v Speaker 1>So understanding that, what we do know is that Israel

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<v Speaker 1>and Hezbola want to avoid war. So if that is

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<v Speaker 1>the case, what would allow each side to claim a

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<v Speaker 1>kind of victory, what would end this escalation before it

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<v Speaker 1>became a war?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, So I think for Hisbola, it can walk away

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<v Speaker 2>from this contained escalation and claim victory because Hisbola can

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<v Speaker 2>present itself as a force that stood up to Israel,

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<v Speaker 2>stood in solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza, and attacked.

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<v Speaker 3>Israel during the war in Gaza, and it.

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<v Speaker 2>Can claim that it is acting in Lebanon's interests, and

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<v Speaker 2>you know, it calls itself the party of Resistance, that

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<v Speaker 2>it's resisting Israel on Lebanon's behalf. For Israel, it's much

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<v Speaker 2>harder really to claim any victory against his Bolla, because

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<v Speaker 2>you know, Israel relies on this deterrence against threats such

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<v Speaker 2>as his Bolla. And you know, in the last year,

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<v Speaker 2>really the North of Israel is no longer a functioning

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<v Speaker 2>part of the country, so it's going to be harder

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<v Speaker 2>for Israel to send a message of victory. On the

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<v Speaker 2>other hand, it's actually been more successful against his Bolla

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<v Speaker 2>than it has against Hamas in some ways. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>it's shown that its intelligence has been highly effective, that

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<v Speaker 2>it's been able to do these pinpoint assassinations of his

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<v Speaker 2>Bola leaders in a way that.

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<v Speaker 3>It hasn't been able to do against Hamas.

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<v Speaker 2>And also, you know, it's launched this attack on Gaza

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<v Speaker 2>that's devastated much of Gaza, and that also becomes part

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<v Speaker 2>of it deterrence and a message to his Bola about

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<v Speaker 2>what we might see if there's a complete war against

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<v Speaker 2>fIF Bolla. But there's also the question then about what

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<v Speaker 2>is a victory against Hamas look like, because the war

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<v Speaker 2>is still going on there with an enormous death toll

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<v Speaker 2>in Gaza. Benjamin Antennahu has claimed that he wants a

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<v Speaker 2>total victory in Gaza. It's still not clear exactly what

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<v Speaker 2>that would look like. Ultimately, you know, Israel would need

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<v Speaker 2>the hostages to come back, and it would probably need

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<v Speaker 2>to kill the leader of Hamas, Sinoir. He has proven

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<v Speaker 2>very elusive without being able to capture him or kill

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<v Speaker 2>him or end his leadership of Hamas. It's hard to

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<v Speaker 2>see how Israel can claim a total victory, but it

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<v Speaker 2>may have to set off something short of that, and

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<v Speaker 2>certainly there are a strong care within Israel for.

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<v Speaker 3>It to do that.

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<v Speaker 1>Jonathan, thank you for your time.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks Ruby.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news today, thousands of CFMU members are

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<v Speaker 1>expected to attend rallies across the country today. The protests

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<v Speaker 1>come after the government announced will be placing all branches

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<v Speaker 1>of the Union under administration for a minimum of three years.

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<v Speaker 1>Attorney General Mark Dreyfus made the announcement on Friday morning,

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<v Speaker 1>declaring it was in the public interest after revelations by

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<v Speaker 1>the Nine newspapers of corruption and links to criminal games

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<v Speaker 1>and Musician and former Federal Arts Minister Peter go Barrett

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<v Speaker 1>will lead an independent review into the Melbourne Symphony Orchestra.

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<v Speaker 1>The organization has recently come under scrutiny after it canceled

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<v Speaker 1>the upcoming performance of an acclaimed pianist who dedicated a

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<v Speaker 1>song to journalists who have died while covering the war

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<v Speaker 1>in Gaza. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am. Thanks

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<v Speaker 1>for listening.