WEBVTT - The Mar-a-Lago accord: The real reason Trump wants tariffs

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<v Speaker 1>From Schwartz Media. I'm Ruby Jones. This is seven am

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<v Speaker 1>today in the Rose Garden at the White House, President

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<v Speaker 1>Trump will unveil his next round of tariffs.

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<v Speaker 2>The Cabinet will be here for the event. It'll be

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<v Speaker 2>our first Rose Garden events of this administration. So are

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<v Speaker 2>you old?

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<v Speaker 1>He's calling it Liberation Day?

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<v Speaker 2>The President will be announcing a tariff plan that will

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<v Speaker 2>roll back the unfair treed practices that have been ripping

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<v Speaker 2>off our country for decades.

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<v Speaker 1>He's doing the first round of tariffs are already doing damage,

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<v Speaker 1>and there's more pain to come as the President enacts

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<v Speaker 1>his radical plan to reshape the entire global financial system. Today,

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<v Speaker 1>managing editor of the Saturday Paper, Emily Barrett on the

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<v Speaker 1>economic blueprint behind Trump's tariffs and the chaos to come.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Wednesday, April two, So Emily, welcome back to seven am.

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<v Speaker 3>Thanks Ruby. It's great to be here.

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<v Speaker 1>Today is the second of April, or as Donald Trump

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<v Speaker 1>likes to call it, Liberation Day.

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<v Speaker 3>It's a pretty ominous term it is, so what does

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<v Speaker 3>it actually mean?

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<v Speaker 4>We are we have Liberation Day, as you know, on

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<v Speaker 4>April second, because and I'm not referring to Canada, but

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<v Speaker 4>many countries have taken advantage of US, the likes of

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<v Speaker 4>which nobody even thought it was possible for many, many decades.

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<v Speaker 3>Liberation Day, as he's called it, is supposedly when he's

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<v Speaker 3>going to unveil the sweeping tariffs on countries that the

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<v Speaker 3>administration thinks have an unfair advantage over the US in

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<v Speaker 3>trade terms.

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<v Speaker 4>I think most countries will are agreeing with me. They're

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<v Speaker 4>actually many of them have actually apologized. They said, look,

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<v Speaker 4>we have taken advantage, and I don't blame them as much.

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<v Speaker 3>Just after his inauguration, Trump ordered his Commerce Department, along

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<v Speaker 3>with the trade representatives offer YES, to compile a massive

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<v Speaker 3>report on America's trade relationships around the world, and that's

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<v Speaker 3>supposed to be the basis for setting tariffs country by

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<v Speaker 3>country and by sectors based on where the US sees

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<v Speaker 3>practices that are disadvantaging them. It's been kind of assumed

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<v Speaker 3>that Trump would focus on countries with trade surpluses, that

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<v Speaker 3>is that they sell more to the US than they

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<v Speaker 3>buy from the US. But in this round, the administration

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<v Speaker 3>is reportedly also going to be targeting countries that use

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<v Speaker 3>any measures to protect their own industries. That's measures like

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<v Speaker 3>regulations that buy US products or subsidies, and he's complained

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<v Speaker 3>about the sales taxes that almost all countries levy, like OURGST.

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<v Speaker 3>The administration has also complained about our pharmaceutical benefits scheme.

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<v Speaker 5>American medical giants are slamming the Albanese government for its

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<v Speaker 5>eighteen billion dollar PBS medicine scheme. They're blaming the Australian

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<v Speaker 5>policy for cutting prices and blocking American exporter US.

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<v Speaker 3>That's a scheme in which our government agrees prices with

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<v Speaker 3>US suppliers and pays those prices so it can keep

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<v Speaker 3>prices low for consumers here. Our local content quotas for

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<v Speaker 3>Australian broadcasters have also come under scrutiny, apparently in the US,

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<v Speaker 3>and as has the News media Bargaining Code, which is

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<v Speaker 3>what would get companies like Matter and Google to pay

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<v Speaker 3>for news. He also said that he's considering levies on

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<v Speaker 3>things like copper and lumber and meat. That's when Australia

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<v Speaker 3>started talking to him about the risks of the price

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<v Speaker 3>of Big Max. He said that there will be secondary

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<v Speaker 3>tariffs as well, and this is new on all countries

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<v Speaker 3>that buy exports from supposedly unfair players, and that's things

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<v Speaker 3>like oil and gas from Venezuela, and most recently on

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<v Speaker 3>Russia because apparently he's annoyed about Russia's stance on a

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<v Speaker 3>ceasefire with Ukraine. It's reported by Politico that people within

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<v Speaker 3>the administration even don't have the full picture of what's

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<v Speaker 3>going on. But what we do know is that the

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<v Speaker 3>uncertainty and the threats and the putting on tariffs and

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<v Speaker 3>backing off them kept speculation mounting, and that fits Trump's

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<v Speaker 3>sense of drama.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So while we're waiting then to hear about the

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<v Speaker 1>next round of tariffs expected today, can we talk about

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<v Speaker 1>what has happened so far with the tariffs that have

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<v Speaker 1>already been enacted on Canada, on Mexico, China, Australia. What

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<v Speaker 1>has the impact been.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, so far, we've sort of seen a lot already imposed.

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<v Speaker 3>This started with twenty five percent tariffs for Canada and Mexico,

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<v Speaker 3>which were then delayed and then stalled, and then after

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<v Speaker 3>some talks they're going to be reimposed. Apparently China was

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<v Speaker 3>also hit with ten percent, and that was then up

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<v Speaker 3>to twenty percent, with the threat that they'll continue to rise.

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<v Speaker 3>And all these accumulative by the way, so some countries

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<v Speaker 3>will be really racking up the levels of tariffs they're

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<v Speaker 3>having to pay. And all of this, by the way,

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<v Speaker 3>is helping to drive up the price of oil. So

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<v Speaker 3>what's happened Aside from oil prices rising, We've seen stock

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<v Speaker 3>markets around the world have driven sharply lower, and that's

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<v Speaker 3>including in the US. So the S and P five

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<v Speaker 3>hundred has just marked its worst quarter in three years.

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<v Speaker 3>US consumer confidence has fallen, and long term inflation expectations

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<v Speaker 3>have risen pretty sharply. Despite this clear negative reaction, Trump

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<v Speaker 3>hasn't backed off so far. In his first administration, he

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<v Speaker 3>loved to equate the gains in stocks with the success

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<v Speaker 3>of his presidency, so people sort of expected that this

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<v Speaker 3>time around there would be what's called a Trump put,

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<v Speaker 3>meaning that if stocks fell, he'd back off to sort

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<v Speaker 3>of spare everyone further losses. The fact that he's not

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<v Speaker 3>done this so far is an unwelcome surprise for a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of people.

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<v Speaker 2>Right.

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<v Speaker 1>So, as a result of these initial tariffs, stock markets

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<v Speaker 1>have dropped, oil prices or up. Consumers in the US

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<v Speaker 1>are very worried, but regardless, Trump is pushing ahead. So

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<v Speaker 1>why do you think that is, Emily?

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<v Speaker 3>All we know is that at this point, as the

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<v Speaker 3>wheels are starting to fall off, is that the administration

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<v Speaker 3>and a lot of people around the administration are trying

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<v Speaker 3>to make this look deliberate and considered. It's become a

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<v Speaker 3>bit of a parlor game actually for economic experts, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>to try and apply some kind of rationale to what

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<v Speaker 3>Trump is doing.

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<v Speaker 6>First, he wants to use it as a tool to

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<v Speaker 6>get other countries to do what he wants them to

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<v Speaker 6>do right.

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<v Speaker 7>Secondly, he thinks of it as a tool to raise

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<v Speaker 7>lots of revenue.

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<v Speaker 3>Yes, it's as if he wants to cause this period

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<v Speaker 3>of disruption because he thinks there'll be some promise land

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<v Speaker 3>on the other side. Now that may work out, or

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<v Speaker 3>he makes shooting himself in the third what we've seen from.

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<v Speaker 5>History is the periods.

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<v Speaker 6>It's not a trade work. We are going to reset trade.

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<v Speaker 3>Policy on April.

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<v Speaker 6>Second. You've got China's got huge tariffs on us.

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<v Speaker 3>It's kind of like an intellectual exercise that the top

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<v Speaker 3>flight economists have joined in on around the world. But

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<v Speaker 3>it's also raised some hackles among progressive economists, particularly who

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<v Speaker 3>say that this is sane washing, you know, like greenwashing,

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<v Speaker 3>where companies make a dirty climate practice look clean. This

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<v Speaker 3>is making a completely bonker's idea look logical or even bold.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is where the Mari Lago accord comes in.

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<v Speaker 1>This plan that goes some way to explaining Trump's thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about tariffs. So tell me about that.

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<v Speaker 3>It's written by one of Trump's top economic advisors. Let's

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<v Speaker 3>say it's kind of like Project twenty twenty five for

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<v Speaker 3>the American budget. It's basically a pitch to reshape international

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<v Speaker 3>trade and really to reshape the entire global financial system

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<v Speaker 3>that it's based on.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, as soon as you say the words reshape

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<v Speaker 1>the global financial system, my conspiratorial hackles go up. So

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, is this a real plan? Emily, how seriously

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<v Speaker 1>should we be taking it?

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<v Speaker 3>It's definitely a rationale. It's an offering. I would say

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<v Speaker 3>that if it is a real plan, it's very scary.

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<v Speaker 3>I think that it's important to take it seriously, but

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<v Speaker 3>not literally, as so many people say about Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up after the break, What exactly is Trump's plan

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<v Speaker 1>to reshape the global financial system?

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<v Speaker 6>Hi, I'm Daniel James seven Am tells stories that need

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<v Speaker 6>dou slash support. Thanks for listening and supporting our work, Emily.

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<v Speaker 1>There is a document, a blueprint if you like, that

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<v Speaker 1>might help explain the thinking behind Donald Trump's trade wars.

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<v Speaker 1>Tell me more about what it is exactly and why

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<v Speaker 1>people are paying attention to it right now.

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<v Speaker 3>So this is a paper written by Stephen Murraan. He

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<v Speaker 3>was recently pointed the chair of the US Council of

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<v Speaker 3>Economic Advisors. Those are the president's top economic advisors.

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<v Speaker 8>Stephen, you are one of the top economists at the

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<v Speaker 8>White House right now. Welcome to Bloomberg. You're serving in

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<v Speaker 8>this role at a tenuous moment for the economy. We

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<v Speaker 8>saw last week the federal reserves.

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<v Speaker 3>So a week after Trump's election win in November, he

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<v Speaker 3>published this forty page paper that was called a User's

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<v Speaker 3>Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System.

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<v Speaker 8>You talk about some unorthodox policies like revaluing US gold stocks,

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<v Speaker 8>applying a user fee to treasuries and a new global

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<v Speaker 8>currency accord. Can you tell me how much of this

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<v Speaker 8>is in the works now?

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<v Speaker 7>Yeah, So I'm glad you brought that up, because this

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<v Speaker 7>paper seems to have taken on a life of its

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<v Speaker 7>own against all my intents. Look, I'm pretty clear in

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<v Speaker 7>that paper that it's a catalog of available options.

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<v Speaker 3>So what they think America should be doing is slashing

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<v Speaker 3>government spending and borrowing, repare the trade deficit by attracting

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<v Speaker 3>more investment and sell more to the rest of the world,

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<v Speaker 3>and with that rebuild the manufacturing sector. The focus on

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<v Speaker 3>America's poor finances is entirely reasonable. America's debt, just to

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<v Speaker 3>sort of put this in perspective, is one hundred and

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<v Speaker 3>twenty three percent of its total GDP. Australia is, by comparison,

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<v Speaker 3>is less than fifty percent. And this debt pile for

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<v Speaker 3>the US is growing many times faster than its economy

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<v Speaker 3>is growing. So debt service costs are the second largest

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<v Speaker 3>line item in the federal budget. It's borrowing to pay

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<v Speaker 3>its own debt, and Stephen Myron is aligning with Trump's

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<v Speaker 3>idea that the US is not getting enough out of

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<v Speaker 3>world dominance. Basically, the main plank of the solution, as

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<v Speaker 3>they see it, is to weaken the dollar, and that

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<v Speaker 3>would make US exports more competitive and imports more expensive,

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<v Speaker 3>so it's supposed to sort of head off this flood

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<v Speaker 3>of cheaper offshore products. The thing is, you can't just

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<v Speaker 3>weaken the dollar because this is a market that in

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<v Speaker 3>daily trade is worth sort of seven trillion in trans

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<v Speaker 3>actions each day. So you can't do this alone. You

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<v Speaker 3>have to have an agreement, a multilateral agreement with other

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<v Speaker 3>countries all involved in it. And the US has done

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<v Speaker 3>this in the past. So in the nineteen eighty five

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<v Speaker 3>there was the Plaza Accord. This was with Japan, France,

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<v Speaker 3>West Germany, and Britain, and it was supposed to reduce

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<v Speaker 3>the US deficit and pull the country out of recession.

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<v Speaker 6>So this was a.

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<v Speaker 3>Huge deal for the US and it worked. Failing an accord, though,

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<v Speaker 3>tariffs are supposed to be the stick that is supposed

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<v Speaker 3>to encourage countries to work with the US. But Myron's

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<v Speaker 3>blueprint has got other measures. The first one is cutting

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<v Speaker 3>federal spending, and that's what DOJE is supposed to be

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<v Speaker 3>all about. The really difficult bit that's also laid out

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<v Speaker 3>in Myron's blueprint is lowering borrowing costs for the US.

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<v Speaker 3>So that's interest rates, it's tied to the massive amount

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<v Speaker 3>of US debt that we've talked about. His suggestion to

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<v Speaker 3>cut debt service costs is to force other countries that

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<v Speaker 3>have government debt from the US to switch those out

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<v Speaker 3>for bonds that essentially don't pay. Instead, they will extend

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<v Speaker 3>out to own these very long dated bonds that eventually

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<v Speaker 3>sort of in fifty two hundred years, they'll get their

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<v Speaker 3>money back. And that terrible to heal is supposed to

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<v Speaker 3>be in exchange for military protection for all of the

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<v Speaker 3>benefits of having the US answer a call when you're

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<v Speaker 3>in trouble. The problem with that is that most US

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<v Speaker 3>government debt is actually held by American banks and by funds,

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<v Speaker 3>like the vast majority of it. If you do a

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<v Speaker 3>deal like that, then you're ruining the credit of the

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<v Speaker 3>US government and those bonds are instantly devalued. And not

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<v Speaker 3>only that, it would crash the US financial system.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so they have this plan which is to weaken

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<v Speaker 1>the American dollar. The idea being that if you do,

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<v Speaker 1>you'll bring back manufacturing and bring back jobs. But as

0:12:53.640 --> 0:12:58.080
<v Speaker 1>you've outlined, it could also have these significant consequences for

0:12:58.120 --> 0:13:01.920
<v Speaker 1>the American financial system. So, Emily, what impact do you

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<v Speaker 1>think this will have on the American people?

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<v Speaker 3>So we're already starting to see this play out in

0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:12.040
<v Speaker 3>unfortunate ways for Americans. We've got to ask, really, all

0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:14.559
<v Speaker 3>of this for what kind of chance of success. Even

0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:16.880
<v Speaker 3>Stephen Myron and his piece says that it's a pretty

0:13:16.960 --> 0:13:20.640
<v Speaker 3>narrow path to success. Right the stated aim of bringing

0:13:20.679 --> 0:13:23.720
<v Speaker 3>back well paid jobs, it's not going to put the

0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:26.120
<v Speaker 3>manufacturing sector where it was back in its peak in

0:13:26.200 --> 0:13:29.839
<v Speaker 3>nineteen seventy nine. You know, that's when the most manufacturing

0:13:29.920 --> 0:13:32.560
<v Speaker 3>jobs were seen in the US. The thing is that

0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:35.240
<v Speaker 3>the tariff part of the planet they've outlined, even if

0:13:35.240 --> 0:13:37.839
<v Speaker 3>you assume it can be implemented, is no kind of

0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:40.960
<v Speaker 3>quick fix. In the meantime, we've got inflation is a

0:13:41.000 --> 0:13:45.000
<v Speaker 3>real risk. Most companies that have higher import or production

0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:49.160
<v Speaker 3>costs because of tariffs will simply pass those costs onto consumers.

0:13:49.720 --> 0:13:53.360
<v Speaker 3>One thing that Myron points out in his paper is

0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:57.200
<v Speaker 3>that these tariffs must be applied carefully so that there

0:13:57.280 --> 0:14:00.800
<v Speaker 3>is no retaliation, because if you get reached retaliation, you

0:14:00.880 --> 0:14:03.559
<v Speaker 3>get a trade war that can go on ad infinitum.

0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:08.120
<v Speaker 3>But we've already seen retaliation from Europe, from China, from Canada,

0:14:08.640 --> 0:14:12.440
<v Speaker 3>We've seen those rates on tariffs pushing up higher. Stephen

0:14:12.480 --> 0:14:15.720
<v Speaker 3>Myron also said that once you get above twenty percent tariffs,

0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:19.840
<v Speaker 3>you start to see them becoming counterproductive. That's when you

0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:23.960
<v Speaker 3>start to see the economic impacts coming back and biting Americans.

0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:28.320
<v Speaker 1>Okay, and you said that the peak of American manufacturing

0:14:28.480 --> 0:14:31.640
<v Speaker 1>was in nineteen seventy nine, So how much of this

0:14:31.800 --> 0:14:36.360
<v Speaker 1>plan is really about imagining a more traditional past. What

0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:40.080
<v Speaker 1>does this document tell you about the type of America

0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:43.040
<v Speaker 1>that Trump is working towards in the social sense as

0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:46.040
<v Speaker 1>well as the economic. If we start off by looking

0:14:46.080 --> 0:14:48.840
<v Speaker 1>at it in policy terms, this is revenge politics, as

0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:52.400
<v Speaker 1>Jillian Tet has said at the Financial Times, and that's

0:14:52.520 --> 0:14:55.400
<v Speaker 1>arguably what drove all of the economic pain that led

0:14:55.440 --> 0:14:56.640
<v Speaker 1>to the last World War.

0:14:58.440 --> 0:15:01.360
<v Speaker 3>And in social terms, it's really to know what kind

0:15:01.360 --> 0:15:04.240
<v Speaker 3>of nostalgia Trump has in mind when he's thinking about

0:15:04.280 --> 0:15:07.800
<v Speaker 3>making America great again. There's a lot about this platform

0:15:08.320 --> 0:15:11.720
<v Speaker 3>that would take the country back to perhaps his early

0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:15.760
<v Speaker 3>adult years in the seventies, when America was the manufacturing giant.

0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:20.480
<v Speaker 3>Maybe he's romanticizing about those well paid jobs when men

0:15:20.560 --> 0:15:23.880
<v Speaker 3>worked and women stayed at home. But I'd suggest that

0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:28.880
<v Speaker 3>the world that Trump really has in mind, it's imperialist.

0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:33.200
<v Speaker 3>It's imposing itself on every other country's decision making. And

0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:35.840
<v Speaker 3>if we kind of halt that sane washing cycle for

0:15:35.880 --> 0:15:39.440
<v Speaker 3>a second, this is the world that allows him to

0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:44.080
<v Speaker 3>continue performing and to seize the world's attention. He's gathering

0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:47.000
<v Speaker 3>power to himself and he's capitalizing on it, and that's

0:15:47.120 --> 0:15:47.640
<v Speaker 3>just for him.

0:15:47.720 --> 0:15:52.800
<v Speaker 1>The US President, Emily, thank you so much for your time.

0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:53.760
<v Speaker 3>Thank you so much.

0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:54.080
<v Speaker 6>Ruby.

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<v Speaker 1>Also in the news today, the ABBA has left the

0:16:05.720 --> 0:16:09.360
<v Speaker 1>cash rate unchanged at four point one, as expected. In

0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:13.040
<v Speaker 1>a statement accompanying the decision yesterday, the board said inflation

0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:16.720
<v Speaker 1>has fallen substantially since the peak in twenty twenty two

0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:19.960
<v Speaker 1>as a result of higher interest rates. The Board is

0:16:20.000 --> 0:16:22.560
<v Speaker 1>now expected to cut rates at the next meeting in May,

0:16:22.680 --> 0:16:27.760
<v Speaker 1>according to analysts, and former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has

0:16:27.800 --> 0:16:30.480
<v Speaker 1>told politicians to get off their knees and stand up

0:16:30.520 --> 0:16:33.840
<v Speaker 1>to President Trump. In an address at the Press Club yesterday,

0:16:33.840 --> 0:16:37.200
<v Speaker 1>mister Turnbull mimicked the US President and said both Anthony

0:16:37.240 --> 0:16:40.160
<v Speaker 1>Abeneze and Peter Dutton have failed to properly respond to

0:16:40.200 --> 0:16:44.560
<v Speaker 1>the changed reality of American foreign policy. He also suggested

0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:47.960
<v Speaker 1>Australia withdraw a recently announced three billion dollar payment to

0:16:48.000 --> 0:16:52.280
<v Speaker 1>prop up America's submarine building capability, and consider withdrawing American

0:16:52.320 --> 0:16:56.680
<v Speaker 1>access to Australian naval bases. I'm Ruby Jones. This is

0:16:56.720 --> 0:17:04.800
<v Speaker 1>seven am. See you tomorrow.