WEBVTT - Actually, it is about me: Trump’s wild midterm gamble

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<v Speaker 1>From The Australian, here's what's on the front. I'm Claire Harvey.

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<v Speaker 1>It's Monday, September 7, 2026. Just eight weeks until the

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<v Speaker 1>midterm elections and Donald Trump is switching strategy, asking his

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<v Speaker 1>base to vote Republican as if his own name were

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<v Speaker 1>on the ballot. As the Iran war sends cost of

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<v Speaker 1>living spiralling, Will voters buy his claim that America is winning?

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<v Speaker 1>That's today's story.

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<v Speaker 2>Now that we have it under USA control, should we

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<v Speaker 2>change the name Hormuz Strait to Trump Strait?

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<v Speaker 1>This is Guess Who on Truth Social. We've used AI

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<v Speaker 1>to bring Donald Trump's words to life.

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<v Speaker 2>Like America itself, it would be hotter than ever before.

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<v Speaker 3>The Donald certainly likes changing waterways.

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<v Speaker 1>Cameron Stewart is the Australian's chief international correspondent.

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<v Speaker 3>I think we've got Lake America instead of Lake Ontario,

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<v Speaker 3>the Gulf of America, so why not Trump Strait?

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump is claiming victory in the Strait of Hormuz

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<v Speaker 1>for now the countless time. He's done this a few

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<v Speaker 1>times before and declared that he has achieved his war

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<v Speaker 1>goals in Iran, although the war just seems to keep

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<v Speaker 1>going and going.

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<v Speaker 2>I can say tonight that we are on track to

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<v Speaker 2>complete all of America's military objectives shortly, very shortly. We're

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<v Speaker 2>going to bring them back to the Stone Ages where

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<v Speaker 2>they belonged.

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<v Speaker 1>What is the pressure on Trump now to bring some

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<v Speaker 1>sort of conclusion to this conflict?

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<v Speaker 3>Well, Claire, strangely enough, the pressure on Trump to do

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<v Speaker 3>that is a little less than it was. It was

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<v Speaker 3>certainly much stronger a month or two ago. And the

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<v Speaker 3>reason why is because, of course, Trump is very concerned

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<v Speaker 3>that he'll be damaged. The Republican Party will be damaged

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<v Speaker 3>politically by this war in the November 3rd midterm congressional

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<v Speaker 3>elections coming up in the United States. The polls show

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<v Speaker 3>that the Republicans might lose the two houses they now hold,

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<v Speaker 3>the House of Representatives and the Senate. American voters are

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<v Speaker 3>very upset by a 35% rise in gas prices. This

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<v Speaker 3>is an unpopular war. 63% of Americans don't support the war.

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<v Speaker 3>The U.S.

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<v Speaker 1>And Israeli war with Iran has caused a rare rift

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<v Speaker 1>among conservatives, with several influential figures on the right condemning

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<v Speaker 1>the war in its early days.

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<v Speaker 3>So look, Trump has been very concerned about that backlash.

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<v Speaker 3>But the truth of it is now, with only two

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<v Speaker 3>months to go, That is pretty much baked in. There's

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<v Speaker 3>not much that Donald Trump can do about this because

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<v Speaker 3>there's nothing he can do in the conflict that is

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<v Speaker 3>going to suddenly cause global oil prices to collapse. He

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<v Speaker 3>can't find an easy victory. He can't get out of

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<v Speaker 3>the war. We know that. He is trapped in this

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<v Speaker 3>conflict for the time being. So in a strange way,

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<v Speaker 3>the worst that could happen to Donald Trump is going

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<v Speaker 3>to happen. And I think the White House knows this.

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<v Speaker 3>And so they're changing tack.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, Trump's approval rating is low, very low for his presidency.

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<v Speaker 1>It's kind of at the lowest point that it has been,

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<v Speaker 1>around 34 or 35% approval for how he's doing the

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<v Speaker 1>job as president. But he's still the biggest advantage that

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<v Speaker 1>the Republicans have gotten. In fact, he's urging voters to

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<v Speaker 1>cast their ballots as if they were voting for Donald

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<v Speaker 1>Trump in these midterms. That's an interesting strategy. Is that

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<v Speaker 1>just about Trump's own perception of himself, or is it

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<v Speaker 1>really an advantage for the Republicans?

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<v Speaker 3>It's a good question because Donald Trump initially said, I'm

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<v Speaker 3>not involved in this. When things were going really bad

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<v Speaker 3>in Iran, he was saying, I'm not involved in this.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not to do with me. It's not a vote

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<v Speaker 3>about me. Now he's changing tack. So he obviously believes

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<v Speaker 3>that his personality is going to be on the ballot

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<v Speaker 3>and it's a beneficial one, which is interesting because, as

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<v Speaker 3>you say, the polls don't support that. But, you know, this,

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<v Speaker 3>of course, midterms are always a referendum to do with

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<v Speaker 3>the president. of the day, and almost always, because they're

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<v Speaker 3>two years into a four-year term, Claire, it's a good

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<v Speaker 3>excuse for voters to protest. And we almost always see

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<v Speaker 3>a backlash against a sitting president, regardless of who that

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<v Speaker 3>president is, and we're going to see it against Trump.

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's tendency to suggest naming things after himself tells us

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<v Speaker 1>that he's very interested in legacy. He can't run for

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<v Speaker 1>president again, I mean, unless he surprises us all and

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<v Speaker 1>tries something that would be against the Constitution. But it's intriguing,

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<v Speaker 1>isn't it, that he wants to leave the Republicans in power.

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<v Speaker 1>Does that suggest he's become more about the party than

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<v Speaker 1>about just himself?

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think so. I think Donald Trump sees a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of this stuff through the lens of vindication of

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<v Speaker 3>his own performance. I think he would see the Republicans

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<v Speaker 3>getting walloped in November. He would see as a black

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<v Speaker 3>eye on his own performance. I think he would be

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<v Speaker 3>embarrassed by it. At the same time, any good outcome,

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<v Speaker 3>any good result by the Republicans, he'd see as a victory.

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<v Speaker 3>It's interesting, I mean, because, of course, if the Republicans

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<v Speaker 3>lose both houses of Congress, Claire, he becomes technically a

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<v Speaker 3>lame duck. But I think he would be one of

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<v Speaker 3>the least lame duck presidents we've ever seen. The reason

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<v Speaker 3>why is because Donald Trump loves executive power. He does

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<v Speaker 3>a lot more than any other president without the approval

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<v Speaker 3>of Congress, including going to war with Iran.

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<v Speaker 2>This is a significant move here from President Trump. Yesterday,

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<v Speaker 2>he notified lawmakers that he actually doesn't need congressional approval

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<v Speaker 2>for the war in Iran.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think we'd still see a fairly much unleashed

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<v Speaker 3>Donald Trump, even if the Republicans lost the Congress.

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<v Speaker 1>What is there left for him to do now? And

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<v Speaker 1>what do you think in the final two years of

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<v Speaker 1>his presidency he would be focusing on?

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<v Speaker 3>Look, I think Iran... is the biggest thing he is

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<v Speaker 3>focused on, because I think that is the conflict that

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<v Speaker 3>he may see as being the ball and chain of

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<v Speaker 3>his legacy, in the same way that Iran was Jimmy

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<v Speaker 3>Carter's ball and chain. I think that that's what Trump

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<v Speaker 3>is worried about. I think he wants to see a

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<v Speaker 3>way to get a long-term, if not a victory, then

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<v Speaker 3>certainly an honourable exit from this conflict. And that is

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<v Speaker 3>going to take many months at this point in time.

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<v Speaker 1>The regime has proved to be a much harder nut

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<v Speaker 1>to crack than Trump anticipated. I mean, the beginning of

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<v Speaker 1>this year, he was urging Iranians to come out in

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<v Speaker 1>the street to kind of take names and warning the

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<v Speaker 1>regime that if they punished their citizens for protesting, there

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<v Speaker 1>would be consequences for them. Of course, that didn't happen.

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<v Speaker 1>And thousands of people have been executed by the regime

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<v Speaker 1>or just killed on the streets as a result of

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<v Speaker 1>trying to exercise some sort of protest. Iranian people are

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<v Speaker 1>more oppressed probably than they ever were. Do you think

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<v Speaker 1>Trump sees some kind of chinks in the regime's armour though?

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<v Speaker 3>I think Trump sees the potential to really economically isolate

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<v Speaker 3>the regime in a way that it hasn't done that before.

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<v Speaker 3>There's two factors that's clear. One is that oil is

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<v Speaker 3>now starting to go through the Strait of Hormuz to

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<v Speaker 3>some degree with all these tankers going through without their

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<v Speaker 3>transponders on. The Bloomberg reported this week that oil flows

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<v Speaker 3>through the Strait are now two-thirds of what they were

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<v Speaker 3>before the war. So it's not cataclysmic economically for Donald Trump,

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<v Speaker 3>for the global economy, in the way that many people

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<v Speaker 3>thought it would be. But at the same time, the

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<v Speaker 3>US has a very effective blockade on Iranian ports. And

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<v Speaker 3>so Iran cannot export its own oil. We're seeing 70%

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<v Speaker 3>inflation rate, massive unemployment rate in Iran. The currency is

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<v Speaker 3>worth almost zero. I mean, the Iranian economy is in tatters.

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<v Speaker 3>And Trump's idea is to just keep putting that long-term

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<v Speaker 3>pressure on in the hope that eventually it implodes.

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<v Speaker 1>We've seen some vision of Iran's new supreme leader, whose

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<v Speaker 1>father was killed in the initial round of strikes, seeming

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<v Speaker 1>to hide parts of his body from the camera. He's

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<v Speaker 1>certainly not seeming to be a particularly robust kind of person.

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<v Speaker 1>What do we know about who the regime is now

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<v Speaker 1>and how undiminished they actually are?

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<v Speaker 3>It's a great question because so many outside observers, including

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<v Speaker 3>US intelligence agencies, Western intelligence agencies, frequently get this wrong.

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<v Speaker 3>We don't know. But what we are seeing visibly are

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<v Speaker 3>some cracks here, Claire. We're seeing a band of moderates

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<v Speaker 3>led by the president and the foreign minister, the speaker

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<v Speaker 3>of their parliament, and the non-moderates, which is the Islamic

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<v Speaker 3>Revolutionary Guard Corps. And we are seeing those moderates pushing

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<v Speaker 3>for a diplomatic resolution. I think they see that the

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<v Speaker 3>long-term problem with the Iranian economy is such that it

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<v Speaker 3>could eventually trigger the thing they most fear, which is

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<v Speaker 3>not America, but internal dissent and being overthrown internally. The

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<v Speaker 3>Guard Corps is much more intent on challenging America, challenging

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<v Speaker 3>the West, and having their revolutionary aims achieved through force.

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<v Speaker 3>So we are seeing a split, and that is something

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<v Speaker 3>which the Americans are clearly trying to do their best

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<v Speaker 3>to increase that divide.

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up, what about the nations caught in the middle?

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<v Speaker 1>At the beginning of this conflict, when Iran started firing

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<v Speaker 1>on the Gulf states, on US military assets in those

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<v Speaker 1>Persian Gulf monarchies that are much more Western-oriented than, say, Iran,

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<v Speaker 1>it seemed like we might be seeing the start of

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<v Speaker 1>some new allegiances. Where is that now? Can we still

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<v Speaker 1>say that the Persian Gulf states are inching closer towards

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<v Speaker 1>the American position than they were before?

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<v Speaker 3>I think the Gulf states are just trying to keep

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<v Speaker 3>very quiet and very neutral at the moment. The thing

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<v Speaker 3>they most fear is another escalation in the conflict, which

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<v Speaker 3>of course brings Iran to attack their infrastructure or US

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<v Speaker 3>forces on their soil. And that's what they don't want.

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<v Speaker 3>Every single time, in fact, this week with those big

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<v Speaker 3>flare-ups we saw, tit-for-tat strikes again for the first time

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<v Speaker 3>in a month or so, the Gulf states were very vocal,

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<v Speaker 3>very early, saying, let's stop this, let's calm down, because

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<v Speaker 3>they're the ones who get hit in the crossfire, if

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<v Speaker 3>you like. They are clearly very upset with Iran for

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<v Speaker 3>Iran's provocative attacks on them. But, you know, whether we

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<v Speaker 3>see the long-term down the track, them renegotiating US troop

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<v Speaker 3>presence in their own countries to try and protect them

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<v Speaker 3>from any future conflict would be an interesting question.

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<v Speaker 1>And where is all this left Israel camp? I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>this is nearly a full year of war in a

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<v Speaker 1>new theater, Iran versus the United States and versus Israel.

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<v Speaker 1>Has Israel benefited from the strikes on Iran by the

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<v Speaker 1>weakening of the regime, as you mentioned?

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<v Speaker 3>Absolutely. I mean, the Iranian regime, no matter what anyone says,

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<v Speaker 3>is very weakened from what it once was. Its military

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<v Speaker 3>is decimated. Its economy is much weaker. The nuclear program

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<v Speaker 3>it had has completely stopped at the moment because it's

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<v Speaker 3>been bombed into, not oblivion like Trump said, but it

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<v Speaker 3>has been bombed into a point where it's not progressing

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<v Speaker 3>in any way. So look, the Iranian regime is weak,

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<v Speaker 3>and as you say, they've lost leaders as well, but

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<v Speaker 3>it is still standing. It can still fire missiles. It's

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<v Speaker 3>still a threat to Israel, but it's less of a threat,

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<v Speaker 3>and Israel would like that, even though the government of

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<v Speaker 3>Israel clearly wants to go further with Iran, and that's

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<v Speaker 3>something they're not going to do unilaterally without the Americans

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<v Speaker 3>at this point.

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<v Speaker 1>Cameron Stewart, thank you very much.

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<v Speaker 2>Pleasure.

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<v Speaker 1>Cameron Stewart is The Australian's Chief International Correspondent.