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Speaker 1: Hey, Donald Trump this morning is in Milwaukee. Republicans are

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Speaker 1: gathering for the party's national Convention, which will declare him

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Speaker 1: officially the candidate, the Republican candidate for the presidency of

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Speaker 1: the United States, and that'll be taking place tomorrow our time.

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Speaker 1: It starts and it goes for three days, so by

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Speaker 1: the end of the week, Donald Trump will be the

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Speaker 1: official candidate Republican candidate for the presidency, having survived the

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Speaker 1: assassination attempt yesterday, photographed coming down a plane as he

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Speaker 1: landed in New York and the right he a bandaged

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Speaker 1: as he recovers from the assassination attempt. Associate Professor David

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Speaker 1: Smith is with the US Study Center at the UNI

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Speaker 1: of Sydney. And by the way, as I said, we'll

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Speaker 1: take your life to the White House where Joe Biden

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Speaker 1: will make an announcement in around a quarter of an

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Speaker 1: hour or so from now. David, good morning to you.

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Speaker 1: Thank you for your time this morning. This has upended

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Speaker 1: the race to some degree, hasn't it.

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Speaker 2: Oh? Absolutely, And it's been many, many years since there

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Speaker 2: was a shooting of a presidential candidate during an election campaign.

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Speaker 2: The last one who was shot was Robert F. Kennedy

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Speaker 2: in nineteen sixty eight. He didn't survive. You need to

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Speaker 2: go back to nineteen twelve with Theodore Roosevelt to fighter

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Speaker 2: candidate who survived a shooting. So we're in you know,

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Speaker 2: this is another one of the completely unprecedented things about

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Speaker 2: the election. You would have to say. In the short term,

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Speaker 2: it looks like this helps Trump's prospects enormously. The vision

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Speaker 2: of him raising his fist with his face covered in

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Speaker 2: blood has become already this iconic photo of the campaign.

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Speaker 2: It fits into a story that he's been telling about

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Speaker 2: himself for the last eight years, which is that he's indestructible,

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Speaker 2: that his enemies will stop at nothing to get him,

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Speaker 2: but they can't stop him. On the other side of

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Speaker 2: the ledger, there are going to be a lot of

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Speaker 2: comparisons drawn with Joe Biden, where on the one hand,

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Speaker 2: you have Donald Trump getting up after an assassination attempt.

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Speaker 2: On the other hand, Joe Biden had trouble getting through

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Speaker 2: a ninety minute debate. And it's going to be very

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Speaker 2: hard for Democrats to even criticize Trump over the next

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Speaker 2: few weeks. I think after this, after this horrific act

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Speaker 2: of violence, there's going to be a bit of a

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Speaker 2: boot about criticizing Trump, which will make it almost impossible

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Speaker 2: for Democrats to campaign because at this point they don't

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Speaker 2: have many positive arguments left for Joe Biden. So it

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Speaker 2: really has up ended the campaign completely.

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Speaker 1: Do you think it'll lead to a change in the

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Speaker 1: way opponents demonize each other? I mean, the Babylon Bee

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Speaker 1: got it absolutely right when it said I read out

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Speaker 1: the headline earlier. It said party that accuses the opposite

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Speaker 1: candidate of being hitler for eight years is surprised he's

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Speaker 1: being shot at. That says it all.

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Speaker 2: I don't think it will because this kind of rehtoric

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Speaker 2: has been commonplace in the United States for a very

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Speaker 2: long time now. And the second thing is we shouldn't

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Speaker 2: forget the fact that Donald Trump tried to overturn the

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Speaker 2: results of the twenty twenty election. What happened yesterday doesn't

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Speaker 2: change that. It doesn't change the fact that he has

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Speaker 2: been he's had a campaign based on retribution that he's

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Speaker 2: already suggesting that he wouldn't accept the results of the

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty four campaign if they went against him. So

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump has severely undermined the foundations of American democracy

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Speaker 2: Democrats have been right when they have said that about him. Certainly,

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Speaker 2: a lot of the retoric has been over the top,

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Speaker 2: but it hasn't just been over the top from Democrats.

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump is as responsible as anybody for increasing the

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Speaker 2: temperature and the violence of American political rhetoric.

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Speaker 1: All right, Where to now from here? I suppose, as

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Speaker 1: you say, and you look at Reagan, who's got a

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Speaker 1: tremendous bound in the polls after the attempt on his life,

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Speaker 1: you'd expect similarly, and given the fact that the Republicans

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Speaker 1: are about to go into their convention as well, which

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Speaker 1: is the crowning moment for Donald Trump, he will come

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Speaker 1: out of it, as you suggest, reasonably well in the polls.

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Speaker 1: So he's already fifty points ahead of Joe Biden.

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Speaker 2: He's about three point well.

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Speaker 1: I saw something yesterday that said he's got sixty five

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Speaker 1: percent approval rating to Biden ten and Kamela Harris even less.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure what figures those were, but I mean,

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Speaker 2: certainly the polling is likely to change. As I said,

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Speaker 2: we don't have a recent historical precedent to see how

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Speaker 2: much it would be. But there's been this outpouring of

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Speaker 2: sympathy to Trump. I think the imagery of him, there

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Speaker 2: will definitely be some undecided voters who will decide that

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Speaker 2: that's the guy they want rather than Biden. So certainly

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Speaker 2: I think he will come out ahead quite strong. In

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Speaker 2: the polls. Prior to the debate, the polling averages were

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Speaker 2: actually about even. They were both at about forty or

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Speaker 2: forty one percent or so. Since the debate, Trump's lead

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Speaker 2: on average on average stretchure three points. I would expect

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Speaker 2: it to stretch further now, although I'm not sure how

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Speaker 2: much further. So you would have to say that, you know,

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump. Trump is the clear favorite to win at

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Speaker 2: this point. This might put some pressure on Joe Biden,

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Speaker 2: some more pressure on Joe Biden to actually stand aside.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if that pressure would work. So far,

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Speaker 2: there doesn't seem to have been anything that can actually

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Speaker 2: shift Joe Biden from the crease. But I imagine that that

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Speaker 2: pressure is going to increase because it's going to be

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Speaker 2: very hard for him to be Donald Trump. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: Indeed, and the publicans go first, being the party out

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Speaker 1: of the White House's tradition dictates, so their convention on

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Speaker 1: this week, the Democrat one is still a month away,

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Speaker 1: isn't it, So, as you suggest, the pressure on Biden

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Speaker 1: will only intensify over that period, especially if he continues

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Speaker 1: to make some gaffs as we've seen in the last

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Speaker 1: two weeks.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what he is talking

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Speaker 2: about tonight in this announcement. I thought that his response

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Speaker 2: yesterday was very good measured, it was exactly what you

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Speaker 2: would expect. But we're beyond the point now where a

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Speaker 2: good Biden performance can rescue him from a bad one,

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Speaker 2: because in my view, it looks like he has physically

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Speaker 2: deteriorated significantly this year alone. Even the difference between now

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Speaker 2: and the State of the Union address back in March,

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Speaker 2: there seems to have been a significant declinent. So who

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Speaker 2: knows what he's going to be like in four months,

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Speaker 2: let alone in four years time. So I think it's

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Speaker 2: go on be quite difficult for Biden to save his

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Speaker 2: candidacy at this point. But really he's the only one

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Speaker 2: who can make the decision to step aside, and so

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Speaker 2: far nothing has been able to persuade him.

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Speaker 1: And Kamala Harris has firmed does the most likely to

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Speaker 1: replace him, hasn't She was talk earlier in the term,

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Speaker 1: even that she was struggling with border protection and the

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Speaker 1: other responsibility she was tasked with and nobody seemed to

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Speaker 1: be taking it seriously. But she seems to affirmed in

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Speaker 1: the last couple of months.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so her approval rating has often been lower than Biden.

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Speaker 2: I think part of this is Biden's fault. He has

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Speaker 2: consigned her to a fairly low profile position vice president

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Speaker 2: compared to some of the other vice presidents that we've seen.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, I think that she emerges as the most

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Speaker 2: politically plausible replacement for Biden in that if Biden were

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Speaker 2: to step aside, I think he would probably only do

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Speaker 2: so on the terms that he would instruct all the

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Speaker 2: delegates that he won in the Democratic primaries to vote

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Speaker 2: for Karmala Harris, and they wouldn't necessarily have to do so.

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Speaker 2: But that would be the most sort of straightforward bargain

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Speaker 2: between Biden's supporters and people who want gone. Bearing in mind,

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Speaker 2: Biden's key support base within the Democratic Party is older

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Speaker 2: African Americans, especially older African American women, so these are

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Speaker 2: largely the same people who support Karmala Harris. There is

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Speaker 2: some data that suggests she could burn up Biden's numbers

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Speaker 2: among black voters, which have been very soft for a

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Speaker 2: Democratic candidate, and it would certainly be a lot simpler

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Speaker 2: for her to be the replacement rather than someone who

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Speaker 2: might be more appealing, like the California governor Gavin Newsom,

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Speaker 2: or the Michigan governor Gretchen Wickmer or the Pennsylvania governor

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Speaker 2: Josh Shapiro. The problem with all of those people is

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Speaker 2: if you don't know their names, you're not alone. Half

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Speaker 2: of America doesn't know these people's names, and that's a

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Speaker 2: bit of a tall order for someone coming fresh into

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Speaker 2: a into presidential race. So I think that Kamala Harris

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Speaker 2: would be the most likely replacedb.

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Speaker 1: We'll see where it goes and what Joe Biden has

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Speaker 1: to say in a few minutes time. David, really appreciate

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Speaker 1: your time.

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Speaker 2: Thank you by my absolute pleasure, Matkew

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Speaker 1: As Associate Professor, David Smith, you were Study Center, UNI

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Speaker 1: of Sydney